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Major Reversal Ahead for UVXY?We’ve identified a Head & Shoulders pattern, aligning with our Elliott Wave count showing a completed 5-wave move up ✅ This strongly suggests we’re due for an ABC correction to the downside 🔻 🟡 Yellow boxes mark our high-probability targets. This bearish view is also supported by our broader outlook: A bullish move is expected in the U.S. market, which naturally points to UVXY moving lower. Everything lines up — let’s see how it unfolds 👀
CBOE:UVXY
by VitalDirection
What on Earth Is a Circuit Breaker?!Every couple of days since April 2nd, everybody's been talking about a stock market halt all day. You're left there trying to Google it so you're not the only person in the group chat who doesn't know what's going on. But actually, nobody else in your group chat knows what's going on either. They're low-key Googling it under the desk. You don't have to know everything in the market to be a "seasoned" trader. What does get disappointing is when people guess instead of providing facts or a direct link to an article about market halts. So, this is your quick-but-detailed-read article/ guide to market halts and circuit breakers. Send it to your friends in that group chat. Why today's dump happened in the first place? More on that later. It's a long story. 🥹 What is a circuit breaker? It's simple: a circuit breaker is a 15 minute OR whole-day market-wide HALT when the market reaches 1 of 3 decline levels. It all depends on the level, how fast the decline is, and potentially other factors that we are not aware of. Keep in mind this is not something we have to deal with often. When does it happen? And what stock does it track? Good question. The halt is triggered following declines in the S&P 500 only . That is: AMEX:SPY SP:SPX $CME_MINI:ES1!. If these level 1 & 2 are reached before 3:25 PM EDT , there is a 15 minute market-wide trading halt. Meaning you cannot enter or exit positions. If level 3 is reached at any time in the day, the entire day's trading will come to an end. Level 1: -7.00% | 15 minute halt Level 2: -13.00% | 15 minute halt Level 3: -20.00% | Entire day halt So when the S&P 500 index reaches -6.98%, be sure a halt is coming very soon at -7.00%. Sure, like today, "they" might pump it and use that as support and prevent a halt (we got very close to -6.35% on CME_MINI:ES1! if I'm not mistaken). But it's good to be vigilant and make sure you're not in any daytrades. Does CME_MINI:NQ1! NASDAQ:QQQ CBOT_MINI:YM1! trigger the halt also? No. The halt is only triggered by the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite famously moves much more than S&P 500, so a 7% drop in S&P is way more dramatic than a 7% drop in Nasdaq and it's highly likely at -7% in S&P that Nasdaq would be at -8% or -9%. Although, both are undoubtedly decimating for any long positions. Why does this rule exist? This was introduced after Black Monday of 1987 where the market was free falling ( DJ:DJI dropped 22.6%) with no safety stops in place to prevent a market-wide disaster. This prevents further panic selling and massive stop loss raids, and also gives institutional traders time to zoom out and see the bigger picture. How close did we get recently? Today we got within 0.7% of getting a 15 minute halt. See for yourself: And the intraday 15 minute chart: FUN FACT: What if I shorted the top on CME_MINI:ES1! ? Assuming your time machine goes back 24 hours (some time machines only go back 10 years minimum), you'd have booked 1500 ticks at $12.50 per tick. So around $19k per contract. You know that's not too bad. It's almost a Toyota Camry per contract. Do better! 😆 How do I trade this? Do you really have to? Please do not FOMO & catch a falling knife. Trade light. The market is open for the rest of the year. Trade with a stop loss, and remember, if you FOMO'd and bought at -3% just because it's down 3%, you'd have gotten decimated. Use the charts not the % on your screen. 🔥 Hit the follow button for free educational content because knowledge is free. KD out.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by kingdips
1
Self-Sacrifice That Seems Like Self-Destruction… But Toward What🔻 SPY down 21% | IWM down 29% from ATHs as of April 7, 2025. After months of tracking the Trump tariff narrative and comparing it with the 2018–2019 playbook, we're now living the sequel. But this time, it's happening on steroids, faster and with more chaos. 🧠 Context: Why This Isn’t Just Another Correction It’s not purely about macroeconomic numbers or earnings calls anymore. The market's volatility is now emotionally and politically driven — centered around one dominant voice: Donald Trump. He’s not just reacting to the market — he’s orchestrating the market. And every tweet or announcement can change the direction of the S&P in real time. 🔁 2018–2019 vs. 2025: Chart Overlay Insights 📉 In 2018, the first round of tariffs triggered a -20% drop in SPY — followed by a powerful reversal. 📉 In 2025, the same pattern repeats — another ~-21% drop from highs. SPY printed a nearly identical two-bottom structure This sharpens my conviction that we may have already bottomed — barring another external macro event outside the tariff story. 🧩 The Tweet Timeline Initial Setup Tweet: "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT" A tweet that initially seemed random, but now clearly was a setup. The Main Policy Drop: On the same day, hours later, Trump officially dropped the real bomb: a massive 125% tariff hike on China, coupled with a 90-day relief for all other nations. 📈 The market exploded: SPY ended the day +10.5% — one of the biggest intraday reversals in recent history. Fake Tweet Incident: Just a few days prior, a fake “90-day pause” tweet circulated, reportedly backed by a journalist referencing a major bank. It turned out to be false — but it caused a sharp 20-minute rally, followed by a dump when it was denied. 🪙 That wasn’t the “Golden Tweet.” But it was what I call a Silver Tweet — a smaller catalyst that injected brief optimism. 👉 Silver Tweets bring air back into a suffocating market. But the real bounce… needs a Golden Tweet. 🧨 And Then the Wildcard: Despite the massive selloff, the 10-year yield went up, not down — likely the result of a powerful player dumping bonds to counter Trump’s objective of yield suppression. But that’s not the only possible force at play: Hedge funds are now facing margin calls. This has triggered forced liquidations across equities, bonds, and even certain safe-haven positions. That’s why we’re seeing the unusual combination of rising yields and rising gold — while broader equity markets were still heading aggressively lower. This suggests: A hidden battle of titans Broad rebalancing under pressure And that Trump may no longer be fully in control of the chaos he set in motion. 🔭 Trade Zones 📌 IWM Entry: $179–185 Short-Term Target: $195–205 Mid-Term Target Target: $270–280 (or Retest ATH) Max Downside Estimate: -5 to -7% Stop-Loss: Weekly close below $171 📌 SPY Current Level: $517.99 Short-Term Target: $548–556 Mid-Term Target: Retest ATH ($612+) Max Further Downside Estimate: -3 to -5% from low Stop-Loss: Weekly close below $485 📌 Note: Volume on reversal was highest since Covid crash, signaling serious accumulation. 📉 What This Could Mean Trump’s pressure campaign is likely aimed at forcing the Fed to cut rates. The 90-day pause was meant to cool global reaction — while keeping pressure on China. However, if yields keep rising and inflation picks back up, the Fed might get stuck, causing even more market instability. This isn't just a tariff tantrum — it's a chess match with real capital on the line. 🔮 Final Word We're in the middle of the unraveling, and the market is still testing the gains made during the relief rally. But I’m more confident than ever in my thesis — unless another macro shock comes into play. 📉 We now have: 2 matching 20%+ drops (2018 + 2025) Matching double bottoms Trump-driven catalysts unfolding 📲 The markets will react more to Trump's feed than to Powell’s tone or CPI reports. That said, this isn't a guarantee. If Trump loses control of this chaos, or geopolitical escalation spills over — the downside isn't out of the question. The only certainty right now: The market is watching one man. #TrumpIndex #SPY #IWM #MacroNarrative #GoldenTweet #SilverTweet #MarketCycle #Fibonacci #Tariffs #TradingViewIdeas
AMEX:SPYLong
by Papi_Jammin
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-10 : FLAT-DOWN PatternToday's Flat-Down Pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will struggle to move away from yesterday's big open-close range. Normally, I would suggest the Flat-Down pattern will be a small, somewhat FLAT price move. But, after yesterday's big move, the Flat-Down pattern can really be anywhere within yesterday's Daily Body range. So, we could see very wild volatility today. That means we need to be prepared for general price consolidation (which suggests somewhat sideways price trending) and be prepared for some potential BIG price trends within that consolidation. These BIG price trends would be more like bursts of trending, while still staying somewhat consolidated overall. Watch today's video to learn how the Excess Phase Peak pattern is dominating the trend right now (in the Consolidation Phase). The same thing is happening in BTCUSD. BTCUSD has been in an EPP Consolidation phase for over 35+ days now. Gold and Silver are setting up a CRUSH pattern today. That could be a VERY BIG move higher (or downward). Given my analysis of Gold acting like a hedge (a proper hedge for global risk levels), I believe today's move will EXPLODE higher. Gold is already in an early-stage parabolic bullish price trend. When gold explodes above $3500, I believe it will quickly gain momentum towards the $5100 level. Right now, Gold is recovering from the Tariff news and about to explode upward (above $3200) if we see this CRUSH pattern play out well. Thank you again for all the great compliments. I'm just trying to share my knowledge and skills with all of you before I die. There is no need to carry all of this great information and technology to my grave. So, follow along, ask questions, learn, and PROFIT while I keep doing this. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
16
ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETFInvestment Thesis ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY) is a fund that allows you to bet on a decline in volatility with a 0.5x ratio. That is, with a 10% decrease or increase in volatility, this fund will respond with a 5% movement in the opposite direction. Volatility has significantly increased amid uncertainty due to mutual tariffs between the U.S. and the rest of the world. This presents good opportunities for opening long positions in SVXY. The risk/reward ratio looks attractive, given that current VIX quotes are near the levels reached during the correction amid the pandemic in 2020. It is also worth noting that the share of S&P 500 components above the 50-day moving average is at local lows, which historically happens rarely and may signal a local potential for market recovery, and thus, a decline in the level of "fear" in the market. In the base case scenario, we expect that countries will be able to reach agreements regarding the imposed tariffs, which will smooth out the overall impact on the U.S. economy and lead to a reduction in market uncertainty. Target price – $46.8 Recommendation – Buy Upside potential – 28% We recommend setting a stop-loss at the level of $29.9.
CBOE:SVXYLong
by FreedomHolding
Price Played Out Exactly As Predicted — Jan 14 Setup RevisitedOn January 14, I shared this precise setup here on TradingView. At the time, it didn’t get much attention—but I trusted the analysis. Today, price played out exactly as projected. Every level respected. Every zone reacted to. This isn’t hindsight—this is foresight, documented and time-stamped. Key Notes: • Clean market structure • Precise liquidity sweep and shift • Institutional confluence at premium/discount zones • Patience + precision = result I’m sharing this not to say “I was right”—but to highlight what’s possible with disciplined analysis. If you’re serious about trading or just want to see how I break down charts in real-time, feel free to drop a follow. Let the chart speak
AMEX:VEA
by MOFX-01
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 10, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariff Pause and Increased Tariffs on China: President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most trading partners but increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. This move led to a surge in global stock markets, with the S&P 500 rising by 9.5% and the Dow Jones by 7.9%. ​ 🇨🇳📈 China's Retaliatory Tariffs: In response, China imposed additional tariffs of 84% on U.S. goods, escalating trade tensions and impacting global markets. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, April 10: 📈 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 0.1%​ Previous: 0.2%​ Measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, indicating inflation trends. ​ 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 219,000​ Previous: 225,000​ Reports the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting labor market conditions. ​ 🗣️ Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Testifies to Senate (10:00 AM ET): Provides insights into the Federal Reserve's perspective on economic conditions and monetary policy. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
VTI – 30-Min Long Trade Setup !📈🟢 🔹 Asset: Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI – NYSE Arca) 🔹 Timeframe: 30-Min Chart 🔹 Setup Type: Breakout + Retest at Key Resistance 📊 Trade Plan – Long Bias ✅ Entry Zone: Around 266.46 (confirmed breakout retest zone) ✅ Stop-Loss (SL): 259.35 (below trendline and demand zone) 🎯 Take Profit Targets: 📌 TP1: 279.10 – Prior resistance (red line) 📌 TP2: 292.93 – Higher resistance / structure high 📐 Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation 🟥 Risk: 266.46 - 259.35 = $7.11/share 🟩 Reward to TP2: 292.93 - 266.46 = $26.47/share 📊 R/R Ratio: ~1 : 3.7 — Strong risk-reward 🔍 Technical Highlights 📌 Clean trendline breakout + retest zone ✔ 📌 Bullish momentum with volume strength ✔ 📌 Yellow zone = resistance turned support ✔ 📌 Beautiful V-reversal + higher low formation 🔼 📉 Risk Management Strategy 🔁 SL to breakeven after TP1 💰 Take partial profits at TP1 📈 Let rest ride toward TP2 📏 Stay consistent – follow the setup ⚠️ Setup Invalidation If: ❌ Breaks and closes below 259.35 ❌ Reclaims trendline with bearish engulfing ❌ High-volume rejection from yellow zone 🚨 Final Thoughts ✔ High-conviction setup in a broad market ETF ✔ Strong R/R ideal for swing positioning ✔ Watch for volume follow-through on breakout 🔗 #VTI #StockMarketETF #BreakoutTrade #ProfittoPath #ChartAnalysis #TechnicalSetup #SwingTrade #RiskReward #MarketMomentum
AMEX:VTILong
by ProfittoPath
Cathie Wood Sucks ARKKI always like to mock Cathie, so just throwing up a plot for fun. Orange line is today's close after a 10% market day. If you invested in ARKK in 2018, congrats, you broke even today, lol. She got a reputation from picking a bunch of speculative stocks during the COVID days, you can see the performance since just plain out sucks. 12% of her holdings is still in TSLA, lol. ARKK also owns 10% of PD float (as in 10% of the whole company). She singlehandedly pumped PD during COVID, and now she's stuck with that, there's no liquidity. The worst part about this? If you had invested in TSLA instead of ARKK in 2018, you'd be up 10x right now. 4X if you bought AAPL. Why even bother with this fund? Note: No position, just hate listening to her pump TSLA all the time, $2600 in 5 years, lol.
CBOE:ARKK
by hungry_hippo
TLT Analysis: Bonds in Turmoil Amid Tariff ChaosThis week, we've witnessed a dramatic shift as equities and U.S. government bonds cratered simultaneously. Trump, facing intense market backlash, notably reversed his aggressive tariff stance—forced by China's strategic response and market realities. At the start of the week, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries stood at 4.00%, skyrocketing to 4.51% in just a matter of days—a massive jump by typical investor standards. This rapid rise significantly impacts mortgage rates, car loans, and credit card borrowing, reflecting broader financial stress. The sharp rise in bond yields resembles the forced-selling reaction to Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's mini-budget crisis in 2022. Trump's tariff-induced inflation fears and notably weak demand in recent U.S. Treasury auctions further intensified bond selling pressure. Technical Levels & Analysis for TLT Hourly Chart TLT has clearly broken crucial support levels, highlighting significant bearish momentum: • Resistance Zone: $90.00 - $90.50 • Current Trading Zone: Approximately $88.50 • Support Zone: $86.50 - $87.00 (critical level to watch) Daily Chart The daily perspective confirms bearish sentiment with substantial price drops and increasing volatility: • Major Resistance Area: $92.50 - $93.50 (strong overhead resistance where trapped longs may reside) • Immediate Support Area: $86.50 - $87.00 Trade Ideas & Scenarios Bearish Scenario (primary): • Entry Trigger: A confirmed break below the immediate support at $86.50. Profit Targets: • Target 1: $85.00 (short-term follow-through) • Target 2: $83.50 (potential deeper continuation) • Stop Loss: Above $88.50, limiting risk in case of unexpected bullish reversal. Bullish Scenario (counter-trend play): • Entry Trigger: Strong recovery and hold above $89.00. Profit Targets: • Target 1: $90.50 (initial resistance) • Target 2: $92.50 (secondary resistance level) • Stop Loss: Below recent lows near $86.50 to tightly manage risk. The rapid shifts in bond yields and tariffs are causing heightened market volatility. Investors must remain vigilant and maintain strict risk management. Watch these key TLT levels closely, especially amid ongoing tariff news and bond market reactions.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HispanicHedge
SPY Analysis & Tariff TurmoilLast Friday, the market pressure was intense, and my bullish call option, targeting $537.64 on SPY, seemed overly ambitious as tariffs and political uncertainties peaked. I stated, " AMEX:SPY Trump went all in thinking he had the cards. We were getting sent back to the McKinley era," wondering when or if Trump would fold under international pressure and market realities. Fast-forward to Wednesday, April 8—Trump didn't just blink; he folded utterly, reversing the harsh tariff policies he initially defended aggressively. Prompted by China's aggressively dumping of U.S. Treasuries and stark recession warnings from Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and JPMorgan, Trump pivoted significantly: • Base tariffs: 10% • Tariffs on China: Increased to 125% • Tariffs on U.S. goods entering China: Increased to 84% starting April 10 While temporarily bullish, these sudden, dramatic policy swings underline ongoing instability and volatility. However, with big bank earnings on deck this Friday, short-term momentum looks positive. Technical Levels & Trade Ideas Hourly Chart The hourly chart reveals a critical zone—dubbed "Liberation Day Trapped Longs"—between $544.37 (H. Vol Sell Target 1b) and $560.54 (L. Vol ST 2b). Bulls trapped here from recent highs may now look to exit on a relief rally. • Bullish Scenario: • Entry: SPY reclaiming and holding above $544.37. • Target 1: $560.54 (top of trapped longs) • Target 2: $566.54 (next resistance area) • Stop Loss: Below recent lows near $535 to limit downside. • Bearish Scenario (if tariffs intensify again or earnings disappoint): • Entry: Breakdown confirmation below $535. • Target 1: $522.20 (Weeks Low Long) • Target 2: $510.00, potential further support • Stop Loss: Above $544.50 to manage risk effectively. Daily Chart Perspective The broader daily chart shows SPY stabilizing around key lower supports after significant volatility. Recent price action suggests cautious optimism for an upward bounce, but considerable headwinds remain if tariff escalations resume. Final Thoughts The rapid tariff reversals and heightened volatility are unsettling. The short-term bullish move offers potential quick upside trades into earnings, but caution remains paramount. You can continue managing risks prudently and watch closely for political or economic headlines that could quickly shift market sentiment again.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
4
Analyzing TLT's Current Technical SetupRecent price action in TLT has raised questions about whether the recent sell-off reflects foreign selling pressure, potentially driven by liquidity shifts into equities, or simply represents healthy profit-taking. Key economic data from Japan may provide context to this move, as Japan's current account surplus hit a record high at JPY 4,060.7 billion in February 2025, driven by strong exports and reduced imports. Technical Analysis: TLT experienced a sharp reversal after testing resistance levels around $93-$94, indicating significant selling interest at these upper bands. Currently, the price is approaching crucial support levels, with key areas of focus being $89.78, $89.20, and $88.60. Price action in these zones will be critical to watch for confirmation of further direction. Bullish Scenario: Entry: Look for support confirmation around $89.78 or slightly lower at $89.20. Profit Targets: First target: Rebound towards the previous resistance around $91.25. Second target: Extended move towards the upper resistance zone around $93. Stop Loss: Clearly place a stop-loss below $88.60, protecting against a deeper breakdown. Bearish Scenario: If price decisively breaks below $89.78 with strong volume confirmation: Entry: Consider short positions on confirmed break and retest failure below $89.78. Profit Targets: First target: Next immediate support at $89.20. Second target: Stronger support area at $88.60. Stop Loss: Set a stop-loss slightly above $90.30 to manage risk effectively. Market Context: Japan's record current account surplus could signify reduced foreign buying pressure on US Treasuries, potentially contributing to the selling in TLT. This macroeconomic backdrop underscores the importance of watching these key technical levels closely. Final Thoughts: Keep a close eye on volume and RSI for confirming indicators, ensuring trades are executed with clear risk management. Given the macroeconomic context and current technical setup, caution and flexibility in trading decisions remain essential.
NASDAQ:TLT
by HispanicHedge
Analyzing SPY's Current Technical SetupAfter a strong downward momentum observed on the daily timeframe, SPY has shown signs of a potential reversal on the lower timeframe (65-minute chart). Here's the breakdown: SPY has seen a significant bearish move recently, breaking through key support levels and establishing a new recent low around the critical Half 2 Short target at $486.41. This sharp bearish action indicates strong selling pressure, as evidenced by high volume spikes accompanying the down move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily has reached oversold territory (around 20), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce or consolidation. 65-Minute Chart Analysis: On the shorter timeframe, SPY is showing a recovery phase, with the price reclaiming the Half 1 Short level at $508.91. The upward price action is supported by rising RSI, now trending upward above the mid-level (50), signaling short-term bullish momentum. Volume is moderately strong, suggesting buyer participation. Trade Idea and Levels: - Bullish Scenario: - Entry: I deally, an entry would be considered on a confirmed hold above $508.91. - Profit Targets: - First target: Weeks High Short at approximately $520.16. - Second target: High Sell Target around $531.41 (more optimistic scenario if bullish momentum strengthens). - Stop Loss: Clearly set a stop below the recent pivot low at approximately $497.50 for risk management. - Bearish Scenario: - If price fails to sustain above $508.91 and reverses downwards: - Entry: Consider short entry upon confirmed rejection below $508.91. - Profit Targets: - First target: Recent pivot low at $497.50. - Second target: Half 2 Short at $486.41. - Stop Loss: S et stop above $513, allowing for minor volatility without compromising risk control. Final Thoughts: Given the current oversold conditions on the daily timeframe and emerging bullish signs on the shorter timeframe, cautious bullish entries with tight stops could present favorable risk-to-reward setups. However, remain flexible to shift to a bearish stance if the price action fails to sustain the critical $508.91 level. Always manage risk accordingly and adjust positions based on ongoing market confirmation.
AMEX:SPYLong
by HispanicHedge
GLD UpdateI don't plan on trading gold because there's better plays right now, but I wanted to fix my chart. I should've known that old resistance would be new support, and drawn the line at the Feb high. I did make money on my GLD puts though, I cashed out yesterday. I "think" it's gonna make a pennant then head towards new highs as Iran is the next market whipsaw. When he starts getting pissy about Iran, that's when I'll go long, lol. Gold is probably the safest play while Trump is in office.
AMEX:GLD
by hungry_hippo
3
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-9 : Top/Resistance UpdateToday's big rally, prompted by Trump's Tariff comments, presents a real learning opportunity for traders and followers of my videos. Everyone wants to know what's going to happen next. This video will tell you what I believe is NEXT for the markets and why. It should also reinforce the construct that price is the ultimate indicator and the use of the EPP/Cradle patterns as a mechanism for using price structure to attempt to identify where opportunities may exist. As much as this video is an analysis of price action and a prediction of what may come next, it is also a tutorial showing you how to use price patterns, structure and context to attempt to plan for your next opportunities. Ideally, the next phase of the market is to establish a consolidation range. If the 480-525 lower consolidation range does not hold - then it will likely become a precursor of the July breakdown (support) level. Remember, we still have the July/Oct lows to deal with. I fully expect the 550-575 consolidation range to become the new dominant consolidation phase for the current EPP pattern. It makes sense to me that, absent any crazy tariff war, the most likely outcome will be for the markets to recover back to the 550-575 level and to consolidate further. The last component we have to consider is the recent lows near 480 could have been a very quick breakdown to an Ultimate Low. If that is the case, then we'll most into a mode of seeking the next higher resistance level and I believe the 550 or 575 level would be the obvious next resistance level. So, at this point, I believe the continuation of the Excess Phase Peak pattern is likely, but the price is actively seeking the consolidation range between the lower consolidation level and the upper consolidation level. Price MUST establish the consolidation range, or INVALIDATE this pattern, in order to move onto the next pattern/phase. Get Some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
12
Spy ... Reload?The question over the next 2 days will be is this move up real or not. First, let's look at the position things are in now. 1.Seasonality is very bullish around this time 2. Technicals are oversold and market bounced off some solid supports. 3. Earnings season is about to begin, and in my experience you usually don't see that market crashing in the middle of earning season.. So those are the 3 reasons to want to be long. Now look at Spy weekly chart, Zoom out to 2016 and then add your weekly 50ma; what you'll notice is that in every serious correction the Spy has suffered since 2016 the bear market only ends when Spy can close the week back above the Weekly 50ma The weekly 50ma is currently at 565 , throw in the gap close at 565 and the price action resistance and you got a power line of resistance I would exit any longs near this area here. We may not knife back down extreme but we could shop and trade between 540-565 and in a extreme bear scenario the short back to 400.00 after rounding off a right shoulder with a couple of weeks of consolidation But that's an extreme bear scenario and the only reason I'm entertaining it is because what I see on the TVC:DJI and TVC:NYA Here's TVC:NYA weekly chart This is probably the biggest rising wedge you'll ever see. Dating back 15yrs , if this was to fall out this would mark the end of the bull run from 2009. Zoomed in And you'll see that the weekly 50ma and the prior Wyckoff neck are at the same spot which makes this a power line resistance! I don't expect this to make it back across and I'd be looking at a major short entry here that should coincide with spy tagging its weekly 50ma TVC:DJI Exact same chart as NYA Zoomed in , same scenario as NYA AMEX:XLK The biggest sector on AMEX:SPY and a leading indicator on Tech is showing same thing Weekly chart (Log scale) So the bad news is in the coming weeks, I think we will be tested and this rally may be a bull trap that stalls out at the weekly 50ma. The good news for bulls is we may have another 3-4% pump before we have to bail 😂.. But first Spy needs to break over 553 or 20sma.. Over 553 and it's a 80% chance 565 comes next. Until then 552-537 is chop so ignore any pullback unless we break back below 525 Personally I think we have enough juice to tag 567 by end of next week. Remember 537-550 is chop and don't look too much into it If spy closes any week back above 565 then it's a 75% chance we are headed back to 600... Let's see what happens
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
16