SPY Rejected at Gamma Wall–Watch $610 Breakdown or $615 Reclaim🧠 GEX-Based Options Sentiment:
SPY closed Friday with a rejection off the Highest Positive Net GEX / Gamma Wall at $615, with sellers defending the upper structure near the 2nd Call Wall at $620.
Support now lies in the $608–$604 range, with $605.54 and $604.45 aligning with GEX magnets and prior structure. Below that, there’s a gap to the HVL zone near $599, and the gamma floor starts deep around $591, which is also defended by the 2nd and 3rd PUT Walls.
Implied Volatility Rank is 12.2, with IVX below average. This implies premium selling could be dominant unless we break key levels. Meanwhile, PUT flow dominates at 31.9%, showing a clear defensive posture by institutions.
🔧 Options Trade Setup (for Monday–Wednesday):
Bearish Setup:
If SPY confirms under $610, especially during the first hour Monday, it could trigger a fade toward $605 or even $599 HVL.
Consider a PUT debit spread like 610p/600p (Jul 3).
Stop out if price reclaims $613.50–$615 cleanly.
Bullish Setup:
If SPY holds $610 and reclaims $615 with force, it can squeeze into the GEX void toward $620–$622.
Consider a CALL debit spread like 615c/620c (Jul 3).
Stop if price breaks back under $610 with volume.
📉 Intraday Technical Breakdown (1H Chart):
We now have back-to-back CHoCHs printed below rising wedge structure, followed by a failed retest at the top. This is a textbook sign of exhaustion. The final BOS and CHoCH from Friday confirmed that buyers lost short-term control.
The current structure is rolling over with lower highs, and SPY is now trading inside a descending micro-channel after rejection at $615.
Volume picked up on the Thursday/Friday rejection, which adds weight to the downside scenario unless we open strong Monday.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
$617.00 – Upper Gamma ceiling
$615.00 – Gamma Wall & recent supply zone
$613.50 – Mid-level rejection pivot
$610.00 – Structure support now under threat
$608.48 – Intraday gamma magnet
$605.54 / $604.45 – Strong confluence support zone
$599.49 – HVL target zone
$591.90 – Gamma floor if broader selloff triggers
✅ Thoughts and Monday Game Plan:
SPY looks vulnerable under $610 — this is the most important level to watch. If that breaks and holds below in the first 30–60 minutes, we likely fade to $605 or lower.
The ideal trade setup would be to short the retest of $610 from below, or buy PUTs on confirmed weakness into the gamma air pocket. Alternatively, wait for a high-volume reclaim of $615 to trade with the bulls, but until then, the path of least resistance is down.
Macro catalysts are light, but pre-holiday positioning could bring volatility — stay nimble.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always use proper risk management and trade with a plan.
