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Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.20.2025🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News: 🇰🇷📉 Samsung Share Cancellation: Samsung Electronics plans to cancel over 57 million shares, including 50.1 million common shares and 6.9 million preferred shares, on February 20. This move aims to reduce the total number of issued shares without decreasing the company's capital. 📊 Key Data Releases: 📅 Thursday, Feb 20: 🏭 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 19.4; Previous: 44.3. 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): Forecast: 214K; Previous: 213K. 📈 Leading Index (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: -0.1%; Previous: -0.1%. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by PogChan
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) Extending HigherNasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) has broken to new all-time high suggesting the right side remains firmly bullish. The rally from 1.27.2025 low is in progress as a 5 waves with extension (nest). Up from 1.27.2025 low, wave 1 ended at 531.52 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 507.5. The ETF has extended higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 532.10. Pullback in wave ((ii)) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (w) ended at 521.56, and wave (x) ended at 530.36. Wave (y) lower ended at 521.32 which also completed wave ((ii)) in higher degree. The ETF has resumed higher in wave ((iii)). Up from wave ((ii)), wave i ended at 530.72 and pullback in wave ii ended at 527.22. Wave iii higher ended at 541.28 and pullback in wave iv ended at 536.04. Expect wave v to complete soon which should end wave (i) in higher degree. The ETF should then pullback in wave (ii) to correct cycle from 2.12.2025 low before it resumes higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 521.32 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Elliottwave-Forecast
DCA Play $SOXL | Good R:Rhere are my key observations based 4-hour chart on AMEX:SOXL Price is in a tight consolidation. must break $28.54 with an abs close to see upside potential. If rejected, a revisit of $26.35 or lower could happen. However, this sets us up for a great averaging play $26.35 is a strong support, meaning price may bounce before reaching $25.57, a logical place to accumulate. SL @ $23.77 (or close =< .79) a break below 23.80 will mean further downside. (best to confirm with close) T1 @ $30.00 first aligns with 50% Fib. standard reversal area. T2 @ $32.70 to gap fill if momentum is persists Why this works: no need to predict the exact bottom, nature of cost avg'ing earlier rebound to $25.57 allows you to maintain exposure scaling out at $30 and $32.70 locks in profits while allowing more upside Good risk-reward ratio (~1:2.5 or better) Risks to consider: breaks <$23.79, will go lower (possibly retesting $22-$21 range) If volume remains weak, recovery to $30 may take longer than expected semiconductors remain somewhat bearish, meaning AMEX:SOXL could lag even if it stabilizes a bit Watch for volume confirmation on the bounce Play for T2: In the event that price reclaims $28.54 quickly, consider adding to the position for momentum play to $30.00 Other supporting indicators: a descending wedge has formed, this occurs after a downtrend where price is making lower highs and lower lows, but the slope of the downward move is narrowing; a bullish signal because it shows sellers losing strength, and a breakout to the upside is likely. Last Vol was at 43.88M, lots of involvement Implied Volatility was at 91.45% β 4.32 : market expects large swings Put to Call ratio (0.67) indicate to me that there are more calls than puts out, a bullish sentiment for those who aren't familiar with options.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by EJSM
Bullish Cypher - SPY spotted a bullish Cypher pattern on SPY’s daily chart, and it looks promising. Entry: Current Market Price Stop Loss: 575.50, just under the D-point, to give the trade some breathing room. Targets: All time high Ideas and Inputs are welcome. Thank you for dropping by. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trading involves significant risk, and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Krut4rth7
7
The Inside Out InvestorThere is a common misconception that investing in stocks is always stressful and emotionally overwhelming. Many people think that this activity is only available to extremely resilient people or crazy people. In fact, if you know the answers to three key questions, investing becomes a rather boring activity. Let me remind you of them below: 1. Which stocks to choose? 2. At what price should the trade be made? 3. In what volume? As for me, most of the time, I'm just in waiting mode. First, I wait for the company's business to start showing sustainable growth dynamics in profits and other fundamental indicators. Then, I wait for a sell-off of strong company shares at unreasonably low prices. Of course, this requires a lot of patience and a positive outlook on the future. That's why I believe that being young is one of the key advantages of being a beginner investor. The younger you are, the more time you have to wait. However, we still have to get to this boring state. And if you've embarked on this long journey, expect to encounter many emotions that will test your strength. To help me understand them, I came up with the following map. Next I will comment on each of its elements from left to right. Free Cash horizontal line (from 0% to 100%) - X axis When you first open and fund a brokerage account, your Free Cash is equal to 100% of the account. Then it will gradually decrease as you buy shares. If Free Cash is 0%, then all your money in the account was invested in shares. In short, it is a scale of how much your portfolio is loaded with stocks. Vertical line Alpha - Y axis Alpha is the ratio of the change in your portfolio to the change in an alternative portfolio that you do not own but use as a reference (in other words, a benchmark). For example, such a benchmark could be an ETF (exchange-traded fund) on the S&P500 index if you invest in wide US market stocks. Buying an ETF does not require any effort on your part as a manager, so it is useful to compare the performance of such an asset with the performance of your portfolio and calculate Alpha. In this example, it is the ratio of your portfolio's return to the return of the S&P 500 ETF. At the level where Alpha is zero, there is a horizontal Free Cash line. Above this line is positive Alpha (in which case you are outperforming the broader market), below zero is negative Alpha (in which case your portfolio is outperforming the benchmark). Let me clarify that the portfolio yield includes the financial result for both open and closed positions. Fear of the button This is the emotion that blocks the sending of an order to buy shares. Being captivated by this emotion, you will be afraid to press this button, realizing that investing in shares does not guarantee a positive result at all. In other words, you may lose some of your money irretrievably. This fear is absolutely justified. If you feel this way, consider the size of your stock investment account and the percentage amount you are willing to lose. Remember to diversify your portfolio. If you can't find a balance between account size, acceptable loss, and diversification, don't press the button. Come back to her when you're ready. Enthusiasm At this stage, you have a high share of Free Cash, and you also have your first open positions in stocks. Your Alpha is positive. You are not afraid to press the button, but there is a certain excitement about the future result. The state of enthusiasm is quite fragile and can quickly turn into a state of FOMO if Alpha moves into the negative zone. Therefore, it is critical to continue learning the chosen strategy at this stage. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. FOMO FOMO is a common acronym used to describe a psychological condition known as fear of missing out. In the stock market, this manifests itself as fear of missing out. This condition is typical for a portfolio with a high proportion of Free Cash and negative Alpha. As the benchmark's return outpaces your portfolio's return, you will be in a nervous state. The main worry will be that you didn't buy the stocks that are currently the growth leaders. You will be tempted to deviate from your chosen strategy and take a chance on buying something on the off chance. To get rid of this condition, you need to understand that the stock market has existed for hundreds of years, and thousands of companies trade on it. Every year, new companies emerge, as well as new investment opportunities. Remind yourself that you are not here for one million dollar deal, but for systematic work with opportunities that will always be there. Zen The most desirable state of an investor is when he understands all the details of the chosen strategy and has effective experience in its application. This is expressed in positive Alpha and excellent mood. Taking the time to manage your portfolio, developing habits and a disciplined approach will bring satisfaction and the feeling that you are on the right track. At this stage, it is important to maintain this state, and not to chase after thrills. Disappointment This stage is a mirror of the Zen state. It can develop from the FOMO stage, especially if you break your own rules and invest on luck. It can also be caused by a sharp deterioration in the condition of a portfolio, which was doing well in the Zen state. If everything is clear in the first case, and you just need to stop acting weird , then in the second situation you should remember why you ended up in a state of Zen. Investments are always a series of profitable and unprofitable trades. However, losing trades cannot be considered a failure if they were made in accordance with the principles of the chosen strategy. Just keep following the accepted rules to win in the long run. Also remember that Mr. Market is crazy enough to offer prices that seem absurd to you. Yes, this can negatively affect your Alpha, but at the same time provide opportunities to open new positions according to the chosen strategy. Euphoria Another way out of the Zen state is called Euphoria. This is typical dizziness from success. At this stage you have little Free Cash, a large share of stocks in your portfolio and phenomenally positive Alpha. You feel like a king and lose your composure. That is why this stage is marked in red. In a state of euphoria, you may feel like everything you touch turns to gold. You feel the desire to take a risk and play for luck. You don't want to close positions with good profits. Furthermore, you think you can close at the highs and make even more money. You are deviating from the chosen strategy, which is fraught with major negative consequences. It only takes a few non-systemic decisions to push your Alpha into the negative zone and find yourself in a state of disappointment. If your ego doesn't stop there, the decline may continue. Tilt A prolonged state of disappointment or a rapid fall of Alpha from the Euphoria stage can lead to the most negative psycho-emotional state called Tilt. This term is widely used in the game of poker, but can also be used in investments. While in this state, the investor does everything out of strategy, his actions are chaotic and in many ways aggressive. He thinks the stock market owes him something. The investor cannot stop his irrational actions, trying to regain his former success or get out of a series of failures in the shortest possible time. This usually ends in big losses. It is better to inform your loved ones in advance that such a condition exists. Don't be embarrassed by this, even if you think you are immune to such situations. A person in a state of tilt withdraws into himself and acts in a state of affect. Therefore, it is significant to bring him out of this state and show that the outside world exists and has its own unique value. Now let's talk about your expectations, as they largely determine your attitude towards investing. Never turn your positive expectations into a benchmark. The stock market is an element that is absolutely indifferent to our forecasts. Even strong companies can fall in price if there is a shortage of liquidity in the market. In times of crisis, everyone suffers, but the most prepared suffer the least. Therefore, the main task of a smart investor is to work on himself until the moment he presses the coveted button. There will always be a chance to do this. As I said, the market will not disappear tomorrow. But to use this chance wisely, you need to be prepared. This means that you should have an answer to all three questions above. Then you will definitely catch your Zen.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Be_Capy
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 2-19-25: GAP Reversal Counter-trendToday's pattern suggests a morning GAP will lead to a price reversal in a counter-trend type of mode. I read this as a potential that price will initially struggle to find a trend. Eventually, when it does identify a trend mode, I believe that trend will strengthen into a reversal of the current upward price trend. Normally, Counter-trend patterns invert. So, what I would have expected as an uptrend would turn into a downtrend. But, the markets have moved into a very consolidated price channel near recent highs and volume has diminished strongly. Because of this type of setup, I believe an aggressive breakaway or breakdown price move is pending. Price will attempt to make a move - and when it does, it should be explosive. My continued research, which I share with you in this video, continues to suggest price will stall out and revert downward. We'll see how things play out over the next few days. Gold and Silver are back near recent all-time highs. Stay cautious of a breakdown in metals associated with a breakdown in the SPY/QQQ. BTCUSD is still struggling to make a move. As you will see, I believe the dominant trend is to the downside right now. In short, we are standing at the edge of a cliff regarding price action. At this point, we either grow wings and soar higher or fall downward - hoping for a soft landing. Buckle up. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
13
$DIA Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 18 Welcome back, y’all. We just had a 3 day weekend so we got an extra day of theta burn if you had any spreads on over the weekend. So This weeks Trading Range doesn’t look too complicated but I do want to draw attention to TWO things. FIRST - in the trading range - The moving averages are bearish here. The 35EMA is under the 30min 200MA. SECOND - the 50DMA is facing DOWN. The 30min 200MA and the 35EMA are running together. These two things are enough to keep us flat or down on the week while we either meet up with the 50DMA or wait for it to catch up. Outside of that resistance and support are labeled. Expected move on the week is 439-450 Let’s go !!
AMEX:DIA
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
May TSLA, CRSH and burn in Gehinnom - My Short Against TSLAToday, I will be fully committing to a long-term mutli-asset short against TSLA, albeit using a non-conventional approach. Rather than simply short selling TSLA shares and going into debt, I plan to hold, maintain and build positions in CRSH, TSLQ, TSLL, and TSLY using a combination of share and option spread in both directions. Taking advantage of the speculative, high volatility nature of this massively overpriced stock and reinvesting those short term profits, whenever the technicals and fundamentals are in favor of a short. It's important to remember, that short positions should be generally be short term, and maintaining them is more about managing risk, position size and dynamic hedging than it is about fundamentals, technicals or even sentiment on the company and people For example, I currently have Bull Put Spread on TSLL, which is a bullish leveraged ETF on TSLA, the credit from this position funds the purchase of shares in CRSH, which is 1x short on TSLA and pays a monthly dividend. Depending on the price movement and the greek changes on the options, I can close the short put legs or exercise the long puts, going short shares on a leveraged bullish etf... Furthermore, I've done the math and the dividend from TSLY or CRSH can offset either the losses from the options on the short end of the trade or pay margin maintenance on CRSH or TSLQ whenever I choose to increase/decrease the pressure of the overall long-short portfolio . I won't go into further specifics on the proprietary short portfolio I plan to build against TSLA over the next 4 years, however I will state this is not purely emotional. Using the Kelly Criterion, the ETFs mentioned, the dividend as well as options spreads will give me a very wide net to cast in order to chokeout this Neo-Nazi company to the ground. When it comes to "hidden fundamentals" and macro economics related to a TSLA Short, it's entirely possible that the US trade war may result in the German Giga factory being shut down entirely . German Criminal Code (§ 86 and § 86a StGB) could be applied to Elon Musk as well as his employees at the German TSLA plant as it explcitly prohibits dissemination of Means of Propaganda of Unconstitutional Organizations, Use of Symbols of Unconstitutional Organizations. This law explicitly prohibits the sharing of people, groups, and organization utilizing pro-nazi salutes such as the one display by Elon. Video of using these symbols to glorify unconstitutional organization weren't just shared widely on the propaganda site X, but were likely shared among TSLA employees in Germany... There is also the very serious issue of Elon Musk has directly funding far-right political organizations, including the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is under surveillance by German domestic intelligence for suspected extremist activities. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has publicly condemned Musk’s association with such groups, describing it as "completely unacceptable" and a direct challenge to Germany’s democratic values. Any additional threats of sanction against Germany, the EU may only serve to motivate German politicians to enforce these laws against TSLA. This factory has production rate of 5,000 vehicles per week in March 2023, which if you've ever read Elon's book, you'd understand the strategic importance of this goal and this factory. Beyond this, there are in fact several other smoking guns in the German factory, including but not limited to the use of unlicensed commercial software, used to operate TSLA's commercial hardware. Brownie points if you can spot this in the public video "Flying Through Giga Berlin". Though this video is 2 years old, it is never the less, video evidence of TSLA's violations of multiple German laws beyond the one mentioned above. Though it remains to be seen exactly to what extent these issues, if any have been resolved to date. I have no obligation to disclose or update people on this position. However, I plan to post most article on these assets throughout the year.
AMEX:CRSH
by livingdracula