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Spy ... Reload?The question over the next 2 days will be is this move up real or not. First, let's look at the position things are in now. 1.Seasonality is very bullish around this time 2. Technicals are oversold and market bounced off some solid supports. 3. Earnings season is about to begin, and in my experience you usually don't see that market crashing in the middle of earning season.. So those are the 3 reasons to want to be long. Now look at Spy weekly chart, Zoom out to 2016 and then add your weekly 50ma; what you'll notice is that in every serious correction the Spy has suffered since 2016 the bear market only ends when Spy can close the week back above the Weekly 50ma The weekly 50ma is currently at 565 , throw in the gap close at 565 and the price action resistance and you got a power line of resistance I would exit any longs near this area here. We may not knife back down extreme but we could shop and trade between 540-565 and in a extreme bear scenario the short back to 400.00 after rounding off a right shoulder with a couple of weeks of consolidation But that's an extreme bear scenario and the only reason I'm entertaining it is because what I see on the TVC:DJI and TVC:NYA Here's TVC:NYA weekly chart This is probably the biggest rising wedge you'll ever see. Dating back 15yrs , if this was to fall out this would mark the end of the bull run from 2009. Zoomed in And you'll see that the weekly 50ma and the prior Wyckoff neck are at the same spot which makes this a power line resistance! I don't expect this to make it back across and I'd be looking at a major short entry here that should coincide with spy tagging its weekly 50ma TVC:DJI Exact same chart as NYA Zoomed in , same scenario as NYA AMEX:XLK The biggest sector on AMEX:SPY and a leading indicator on Tech is showing same thing Weekly chart (Log scale) So the bad news is in the coming weeks, I think we will be tested and this rally may be a bull trap that stalls out at the weekly 50ma. The good news for bulls is we may have another 3-4% pump before we have to bail 😂.. But first Spy needs to break over 553 or 20sma.. Over 553 and it's a 80% chance 565 comes next. Until then 552-537 is chop so ignore any pullback unless we break back below 525 Personally I think we have enough juice to tag 567 by end of next week. Remember 537-550 is chop and don't look too much into it If spy closes any week back above 565 then it's a 75% chance we are headed back to 600... Let's see what happens
AMEX:SPY
by ContraryTrader
16
spy had a meaningful run today with strong institutional activiySPY Pre-Market Breakdown – April 9, 2025 Phase 1: 4:00 AM – 5:30 AM – Early Accumulation The pre-market session began with SPY trading around the 490 level, showing cautious price action in a consolidation pattern. During these early hours, price maintained a relatively tight range between 489 and 491, with minimal directional commitment. Volume remained light during this period, typical of early pre-market hours, but began building steadily as we approached 5:00 AM. Around 5:00 AM, we observed the first meaningful price movement as SPY began testing higher levels with several green candles pushing toward 494. This early strength coincided with increasing volume, suggesting genuine buying interest rather than just thin market conditions. The price action formed a series of higher lows, establishing a short-term uptrend channel. What's particularly noteworthy in this phase was the balanced options exposure, with call and put exposure roughly similar , indicating no strong directional bias from options traders yet. This balance suggested market participants were still positioning themselves, waiting for clearer signals before committing to a direction. Phase 2: 5:30 AM – 7:00 AM – Positioning Builds The second phase showed increased momentum and clearer directional bias. SPY continued its upward trajectory, breaking through the 494 level and eventually challenging the psychologically important 495 level. Volume began increasing significantly during this period, adding credibility to the price advance. Around 6:00 AM, we noticed the first significant divergence between call and put activity. Call exposure began increasing relative to put exposure, signaling growing bullish sentiment. The chart is indicating aggressive call buying or put unwinding. This shift in options flow provided an early signal that institutional traders were positioning for higher prices. Price consolidation occurred between 495-496 with increased volume, suggesting accumulation rather than distribution at these higher levels. The market was digesting gains but showed no signs of significant profit-taking or reversal. The price action formed a pattern of shallow pullbacks followed by renewed buying interest, a behavior often seen when institutions are accumulating positions. Phase 3: 7:00 AM – 8:45 AM – Execution The final phase demonstrated the culmination of the positioning seen earlier. Around 7:00 AM, price momentum accelerated with SPY pushing decisively through the 496 level and challenging 497. This breakout was accompanied by a significant increase in volume, confirming the validity of the move. Options flow data showed an explosion in call activity during this period, with call exposure reaching over 9 million contracts while put exposure remained relatively stable. Between 7:30 AM and 8:30 AM, we witnessed classic breakout behavior with price establishing itself firmly above previous resistance levels. Any shallow pullbacks were quickly bought, demonstrating strong conviction from buyers. The market is showing some put unwinding alongside continued call buying, suggesting traders were removing downside protection while adding to bullish positions. The Level II quotes showed a notable imbalance developing with buyers willing to pay up and fewer willing sellers. This order book imbalance further confirmed institutional interest in higher prices. Final Bias: Bullish The pre-market session demonstrated a clear bullish bias supported by multiple factors: Price Structure: A series of higher lows and higher highs throughout the session, breaking through multiple resistance levels with conviction. Volume Confirmation: Increasing volume on advances and lighter volume on pullbacks, suggesting genuine buying interest and minimal profit-taking. Options Flow: Progressive increase in call exposure relative to puts, with the final phase showing overwhelming call dominance, indicating institutional positioning for upside. Order Flow: Aggressive buying on breakouts with minimal selling pressure on pullbacks, suggesting strong hands accumulating positions. Late Session Stabilization: Price holding gains near session highs with continued buying interest, rather than fading into the regular market open. Institutions appeared to be positioning for a higher open and potentially continued upside during the regular session. The methodical building of positions throughout the pre-market, rather than a single aggressive spike, suggests this was not merely a reaction to overnight news but rather deliberate positioning ahead of anticipated strength. Trade Setups with Entry, Stop, Target Trade 1: Breakout Continuation (High-Conviction) Entry Zone: 496.50-497.00 on first pullback after market open Stop-Loss: Below 495.75 (below pre-market consolidation) Profit Target: 499.50-500.00 (psychological level and round number) Rationale: Strong pre-market accumulation with increasing call flow suggests continued momentum into regular hours trading. Trade 2: Dip-Buying Opportunity (Medium-Conviction) Entry Zone: 494.80-495.20 if market pulls back to test breakout level Stop-Loss: Below 494.00 (previous resistance becomes support) Profit Target: 498.00-498.50 Rationale: Pre-market volume and options flow indicate institutions positioned for strength, likely to defend key levels on pullbacks.
AMEX:SPY
by john54674
1
JM-CAPITAL – TSLL Stock Analysis | April 1, 2025 This is a monthly top-down analysis using trendlines and Fibonacci retracement from the low of $6.32 to the high of $41.40. I use trendlines to establish my directional bias and to map out key support and resistance zones. This method has consistently helped me identify strong entry points for options trading. Despite the recent tariff-driven volatility, the candlestick has respected my trendline, which I view as a major support level. I entered my options trade at $9.16 with an expiration date of April 25, giving the trade enough time for the tariff concerns to settle and for the market to establish its direction.
NASDAQ:TSLLLong
by JM-CAPITAL
4/8/25 - $qqq - Don't fall for the meme4/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:QQQ Don't fall for the meme So. You are following Trump on Truth Social. (strike 1) You are believing Dalio about the state of geopolitics. (strike 2) Jim Cramer is on in the background yelling (strike 3) Rando on X accounts "AI is a bubble" (strike 4) You can taper a USD ponzi scheme (strike 5) ... i could go on. Here's the reality. - The stock market is real money. "Money" being defined as "something that has productive value". It it the best money? Maybe. BTC is pretty good too. Each have their own properties. Is the USD "money"? Well. Yes, but mostly no. It's mostly a liability. - Is the global economy melting down? No. Have you not seen what AI can do beyond one-shotting prompts? This is far from what dotcom was. Dotcom never replaced people/ labor and services. So while there are a lot of meme companies out there attaching AI to their business descriptions, the core suspects are monetizing this today, and it's only getting more impressive (not by the week), but the *day* - Does the debt market matter more than stonks rn? Yes. Up until a few days ago, lower yields (on UST's) emboldened speech to not give a F. Well, that's changed. Back to "you can't taper a ponzi". So better own productive assets. Gold has sniffed this out. BTC usually follows 3-6 months on Gold (as a smaller asset class) unless China decides to go full retard Jerome (which they might). And historically, China stimmy is the trigger for BTC getting sent. Weird the moon bois don't track this. But put it in the back of your mental model. - So what do we do here? Productive assets that have visibility toward growth not just this year but into the next 3-5Y and are trading where cash yields and healthy balance sheets are >5% FCF's but ideally closer to 10%. - NASDAQ:NXT remains in a tough tide. Solar as a category has just been so scammy. And even tho US builders are sourcing mainly from Vietnam (not China) etc. etc. people don't do the work in a correlation 1 world. So do we retrace the $32/shr gap? Idk. But I sized up so hard today. And tmr I'll be updating if we gap lower. it's 33% of book today. i take to 40% if we get to sub $35. and i get to 50% (LEAPS!) if we close dat gap. - $OBTC. bitcoin at 8-10% off spot? lol. size manage, but definitely a good way to play the beta with larger size given the discount. almost like leverage without leverage. limits only. v illiquid. hence the discount. - I like NASDAQ:BLDE here at $2.5 the TL;DR is this. 1/ cash generative. 2/ main biz is organ transport, and consumer biz is cash generative ans mostly rich ppl Uber in the sky 3/ two-thirds of the valuation is net cash and 4/ you can sell august 15 2025 calls for 55-60c today (at $2.5/shr) locking in 20% yield with some downside production (where the stock would theoretically trade close to zero valuation and you'd honestly want to own the stock anyway). so i've sized this up to nearly 20% of book. - I like $UBER. 6% fcf yields. not tariff exposed. but it's defn travel-punching bag. I get it. Gap in the high 50s *shouldn't* fill, but i'm prepared if/when only because we're trading like everything is the same. That's what the room-temperature "I buy ETFs" crowd deserves. Pick and choose. So if we dump, this gets dumped and we go back there, I'd consider this an absolute gift. Flows vs. fundamentals already dominant. Better beta than mkt as we re-rip toward ATHs (my view remains) this year. - $GAMB. 15% fcf yields. not tariff exposed. normies r gonna gamble. they have founder-led beats/raises. M&A, low liquidity keeps this waffling but ultimately a winner. - $VST. trades like NASDAQ:NVDA (so does NASDAQ:NXT ) lol. it's a f'n utility that generates piles of cash, is insulated from the hyperscaler fall out (if/does happen... which is NOT my base case), but utimately has tons of power to serve up. $1.4M/MW cheap. 6% fcf yields. no brainer. - $NVO. honorable mention. Euro's can't seem to grow a pair and buy this obvious cash generative winner. GL. mm.. wealth isn't measured in USD's. <3 V PS - i think we go higher from here. avg. stock down 30% on my calculation from peak. index doesn't tell story. could be another 5-10% on index? yeah w/e. again back to point 1. in a ponzi scheme you own real things... and the USD is the biggest shit meme coin on the planet. it has value for a small period of time, but sooner than later you gotta put it to work. don't hold the USSA bag.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by VROCKSTAR
4
Is SPY Positioned for a Rebound or Continued Decline?Data Speaks About SPY: 1️⃣ Trading above key support zone (480/495): The stock is holding above critical levels, which suggests a potential for stability or a rebound if these levels hold. 2️⃣ Below 10-day MA: Currently trading below the 10-day moving average, indicating short-term bearish sentiment and lack of upward momentum. 3️⃣ Failed attempt to re-enter downward channel after sharp decline: Despite a brief attempt to recover, the price failed to re-enter the downward channel, signaling persistent selling pressure. 🔽 Outlook: While the stock shows oversold conditions, the bearish momentum is still intact. However, as long as it stays above the 480/495 support zone, there’s potential for a rebound.
AMEX:SPY
by Quantific-Solutions
Who Benefits from the Dunce Tariff Tsar? The Art of The Short: When SPY Bleeds, Dracula Drinks Today we’re diving deep into the MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN (SPYU), the ultimate degenerate’s playground for snorting the market when SPY takes a nosedive. Tonight, my fellow nightwalkers, I wipe my mouth after my fangs bite into MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN (SPYU) the juiciest vein in the market’s pale white supremisist neck, ripe for snorting when SPY collapses under the weight of its own mortal greed. I’m Dracula, your undead degen, and I’ve been snorting the lifeblood of Wall Street since the days of ticker tape and blood-soaked ledgers. Let’s feast. Picture this: it’s 2025, Trump’s slapping tariffs on everything from iPhones to tacos, and the S&P 500’s staggering like a peasant drained dry. SPY’s down 5% in a day, a crimson river flowing for weeks. With SPYU’s 4x leverage, that ETN’s plummeting 20% faster than you can hiss “inverse gang rise up.” You bulls might clutch your pearls, or buy the dip but baby, you just giving me that drip, drip, drip. Here’s the blood ritual: I summon my broker under the moonlight, borrow SPYU shares, sell ‘em at their bloated peak, and slink back to my coffin until the orange man dumps on the market. When SPYU’s rallies, I buy ‘em back, pocketing the difference—20% gains, minus the broker’s measly tithe and some bat-winged fees. The leverage is my coffin nail, amplifying SPY’s death throes into a banquet of tendies. But volatility decay’ll stake you faster than a hedgie fleeing a short squeeze. Snort quick, my pretties. Disclaimer: This is unholy entertainment, not mortal advice. Snorting’s riskier than a sunrise stroll, and you could lose your crypt. Do your own necromancy, don’t YOLO your blood money, and maybe consult a living advisor instead of a WSB vampire. Markets are feral, tariffs are feraler, and SPYU’s the feralest. Feast wise, or crumble to dust. What in the Nosferatu Is SPYU, and Why’s It My Prey? Listen up, you sun-kissed ghouls. SPYU ain’t some mortal ETF and it’s an exchange-traded note, a dark pact scrawled by the Bank of Montreal (BMO), swearing to bleed 4x the daily pulse of the S&P 500 Total Return Index. Four times the thrill, you hear me? If SPY, that sanctimonious index hog, rises 1%, SPYU surges 4%, a moonlit frenzy. But when SPY stumbles 1%, SPYU’s gutted by 4%, and that’s when I, Dracula, snort its essence like fresh blood from a virgin’s neck. It’s my chalice of chaos. Why care? Because the market’s a bloated corpse waiting to be drained, and Trump’s tariffs are the silver dagger. When SPY bleeds, SPYU’s leverage makes it a four-course meal for us snortin’ fiends. The mortals weep; I feast. Bank of Montreal: The Crypt-Keepers Who Sip Regardless SPYU’s birthed by Bank of Montreal—pale Canucks who guzzle maple syrup and hedge under torchlight. As an ETN, it’s no stock hoard, it’s a blood oath, with BMO bound to pay 4x the S&P’s dance. When SPY falls and SPYU’s carcass sinks, BMO’s debt shrivels, like a thrall freed from my thrall. Are they cackling over goblets? Not quite. These coffin-dwellers don’t wager their vault on market whims. They weave dark hedges swaps, futures, maybe cursed options traded in shadow pools. When SPY bleeds, their short futures might fatten their coffers, balancing the SPYU tab. But the true leeching? A 2.95% expense ratio, sucked from your veins whether SPY soars or sinks. It’s their eternal tithe for the win, lose, or draw, they’re sipping. And the twist of the fang? BMO might pawn some risk to swap thralls, other banks, hedge funds, or their own brood. When SPY tanks, those on the hedge’s far side might choke on losses, but their names are buried deeper than my Transylvanian crypt. Prospectuses are murkier than a fog-draped moor, and BMO ain’t etching their secrets in blood. My bet? They keep it in-clan or with beasts who can bear the bite. The real feast is mine (snorting SPYU) and theirs (skimming fees). Trump’s Tariffs: The Rocket Fuel for SPYU Shorts Let’s talk about the big dunce red elephant in the room: Trump’s tariffs. The man’s got a hard-on for trade wars, and 2025’s looking like a sequel to his 2018 tariffpalooza. The 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, 102% on China, and who knows what else. Why’s this a big deal? Tariffs jack up import costs, screw over supply chains, and make everything from cars to CPUs pricier. Companies like Apple, Walmart, and Tesla, big S&P 500 names get hit hard, and SPY feels the pain. When SPY drops, SPYU’s 4x leverage turns a market dip into a bloodbath and that makes my fangs erect like a male pornstar on viagra. Say Trump slaps a more tariff on Chinese goods, and SPY falls another 15% as tech stocks puke. Do the math on how much SPYU goes down in a day. Scale that up with a big position, and you’re buying Lambos while the bulls are crying into their maga cool aid. But tariffs don’t just hit stocks, they spook the whole market. Investors panic, volatility spikes, and leveraged products like SPYU get wild. That’s your cue to strike. The VIX (fear index) shoots up during tariff tantrums, and SPYU’s daily resets mean bigger swings. If you’re nimble, you can ride those red days for fat gains. Just don’t get greedy—tariff news is noisy, and markets can bounce on a single Trump tweet (or whatever he’s posting on Truth Social these days). See that little, indicator I cant publish? Oh, and my little bat-trick? The Sector Value Index (SVI)—my ancient grimoire. It tracks RSI and MFI across SPY’s veins, averages the pulse, and measures the gap to the index. Overbought or oversold, it whispers when the market’s ripe for snorting. When SVI screams “sell,” I pounce.
AMEX:SPYUShort
by livingdracula
Trump's Tariff Wars : Why It Is Critical To Address Global TradeThis video, a continuation of the Trump's Tariff Wars video I created last week, tries to show you why it is critically important that we, as a nation, address the gross imbalances related to US trade to global markets that are resulting in a $1.5-$1.8 TRILLION deficit every fiscal year. There has been almost NOTHING done about this since Trump's last term as President. Our politicians are happy to spend - spend - spend - but none of them are worries about the long-term fiscal health of the US. (Well, some of them are worried about it - but the others seem to be completely ignorant of the risks related to the US). Trump is raising this issue very early into his second term as president to protect ALL AMERICANS. He is trying to bring the issue into the news to highlight the imbalances related to US trade throughout the world. When some other nation is taking $300B a year from the us with an unfair tariff rate - guess what, we need to make that known to the American consumer because we are the ones that continue to pay that nation the EXTRA every year. Do you want to keep paying these other nations a grossly inefficient amount for cheap trinkets, or do you want our politicians and leaders to take steps to balance the trade deficits more efficiently so we don't pass on incredible debt levels to our children and grandchildren? So many people simply don't understand what is at risk. Short-term - the pain may seem excessive, but it may only last 30, 60, 90 days. Long-term - if we don't address this issue and resolve it by negotiating better trade rates, this issue will destroy the strength of the US economy, US Dollar, and your children's future. Simply put, we can't keep going into debt without a plan to attempt to grow our GDP. The solution to this imbalance is to grow our economy and to raise taxes on the uber-wealthy. We have to grow our revenues and rebalance our global trade in an effort to support the growth of the US economy. And, our politicians (till now) have been more than happy to ignore this issue and hide it from the American people. They simply didn't care to discuss it or deal with it. Trump brought this to the table because it is important. I hope you now see HOW important it really is. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
19
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-9 : Top/Resistance PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move a bit higher in early trading - trying to identify a resistance area. Then, roll over into a downward price trend. Be cautious of the overnight price range, potentially already setting the upper boundary of the TOP pattern for today. It can happen that overnight trading sets a PEAK/TOP, and we move into sideways/downward trading related to the current TOP/Resistance pattern. I believe the US markets will attempt to move upward, toward the $490-500+ level before topping out today. I believe this move will be related to the strong support near the $480 level and will attempt to further establish the downward price channel established by the big breakdown in trend over the past 9+ days. Ultimately, I believe price is struggling for direction, but I also believe this process (with tariffs) is working out as expected. This is obviously a very volatile market - so stay cautious as we move into a more consolidated price trend over the next few weeks. I don't expect the markets to try to make any really big moves over the next 2+ week (unless news hits). At this point, I believe the markets will try to UNWIND the volatility over the next 2+ weeks. BTCUSD is trading near the lower range of the consolidation phase. This could be the start of the breakdown to the Ultimate Low. GOLD and Silver are moving higher after forming the base (just as I expected). Metals will likely rally strongly as global fear elevates. Thank you for all the great comments. I'll try to publish a few new videos today and tomorrow to help everyone out. Remember, price gives us new information every minute/bar. It is a matter of unraveling the puzzle with price - one bar at a time. If you like what I do, follow along. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
4
Spy what I see with my little eyeTraders, Fear, trade wars, WW3, Tariffs and a bunch of I told you soo's..... "You voted for this!" just a bunch of chirping. Because this man got to being a billionaire being a silly goose yeah? What happens when them 401k's start 3x'n, what happens when we see one of the biggest bull markets we have experienced in our lifetime? I don't know much but I know this..... the bull market may not be over. Just taking a break! Enjoy the hopium! Stay Profitable! Savvy
AMEX:SPYLong
by Crypto_Kinfolk
The "Bearish" Short-term Outlook on the marketI apologize - this video was made mid-market yesterday and took a while to download for some reason. So we did subsequently close below the gap and continue downward wherein we closed the multi-day cup at the former low. I am shorting this overnight and allowing for the subsequent liquidity build to happen (if necessary) before shorting again. There is plenty of more room to the downside if our strong selling was proven (which it seems it was with the incoming gap down). Happy Trading :)
AMEX:SPYShort
by ReigningTrades
Possible gold (GLD) tradeSo apparently the reason why gold fell this morning is because gold has 8% tariff premium built in, that is what the March pump was all about. Turns out gold is exempt from tariffs, and so is silver, so silver dumped the entire March pump. So the fact that gold is exempt from tariffs basically means that it basically got pumped 8% today because it didn't drop like silver did. Yeah, tariffs were a shock but not 8% gold pump shock. Also, teh demand for physical gold will go down because apparently there was a lot of pre-buying in anticipation of the tariffs, plus people will have less disposable income. The play here is that if GLD posts a red bar or falls below today's open, then I'm buying puts. Futures are green so I'm not sure if that will be tomorrow or Monday.... though there may be a drop Monday regardless as people actually read news over teh weekend. I should have yesterday before I posted, lol. My bad.
AMEX:GLD
by hungry_hippo
25
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 9, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Implementation of New U.S. Tariffs: As of April 9, the U.S. has imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions and raising concerns about a potential global economic slowdown. 🛢️📉 Oil Prices Decline Sharply: In response to escalating trade tensions, oil prices have fallen nearly 4%, reaching their lowest levels since early 2021. Brent crude dropped to $60.69 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined to $57.22. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Wednesday, April 9: 📦 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET): Forecast: 0.3%​ Previous: 0.8%​ Indicates the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers, reflecting supply chain dynamics.​ 🗣️ Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaks (11:00 AM ET): Remarks may shed light on economic conditions and policy perspectives.​ 📝 FOMC Meeting Minutes Release (2:00 PM ET): Provides detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy deliberations from the March meeting.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao