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Outside the Channel the bears Roam (Week)The QQQ has been respecting the 50 EMA since 2023 and has been forming and upward parallel channel, but now the QQQ is testing hard the 50 EMA, the price is hovering right below the 50 EMA; however, price still closed inside the hypothetical upward parallel channel and in a flip zone with wick candles. Keep your eyes on price action and the channel and the flip zone and the key level below it. If we get a bullish candle moving upward inside the channel that is a good sign that we may have a price reversal. 483.34 the 50 EMA may be the deal or the deal breaker. Please be careful and remember outside the channel the bears roam.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by paper_Trader1775
Turning Point Good day Team: The market has been moving quite mercurial lately. On the daily on the triple Q we have consolidation that can determine price action upward for the buyers and downward for the sellers. However, we may have some confluences that may possibly favor the buyers. ✅ MACD (CM_Ult_MacD_MTF) Histogram is turning positive, signal lines crossed bullish. ✅ MACD shows momentum reversal confirmed. Ideal for a bullish breakout play if price follows through. Williams VIX Fix (WVF) Has a confirmed spike (11.97), with declining bars before and after. WVF confirms a bottom is likely in or forming. Let's hope for a clean break out, please see chart for key levels and indicators. 🧠 Final Trade Summary: 🔥 Most Lucrative Setup = LONG ABOVE $483.88 Backed by WVF, MACD, momentum, and structure Only enter if 1H confirms breakout with strength Stop under $480 (tight) or $468 (wide) Target $489 → $491 → $500 Skip shorting unless price fails breakout and dumps on volume
NASDAQ:QQQ
by paper_Trader1775
Market Update - 3/23/2025Chop-chop -> worst market environment for my style. I'm 100% cash, not much progress since last week, but I'm happy I could hold onto my winners and not give back basically anything. My biggest lesson right now is to learn how to be more selective with my trades. Even though I risk MUCH less than before so even if I mess them up it doesn't have much impact on my results, they still add up. If I take 10 losing trades of 0.3% risk (which is not at all uncommon in this environment), that's still a 3% drawdown that could have been avoided just by sitting on cash. My FOMO is something I need to work on and not feel bad for missing trades. I need to develop probabilistic thinking more and realize that missing a few trades doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. But damn this lesson is hard.
AMEX:IWM
by BenedekBokor
TQQQ Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 032225Trading Idea 1) Find a FIBO slingshot 2) Check FIBO 61.80% level 3) Entry Point > 59/61.80% Chart time frame: B A) 15 min(1W-3M) B) 1 hr(3M-6M) C) 4 hr(6M-1year) D) 1 day(1-3years) Stock progress: C A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance B) 61.80% resistance C) 61.80% support D) Hit the bottom E) Hit the top Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern. When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point. As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved. If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks. If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by fibonacci6180
1
QQQ strong buy at $400 June of 2025QQQ looks very weak. There are a few issues that lead me to believe $400 in June 2025 if a reasonable target: This area of the chat has very low volume and now structure - basically straight up on low volume. The chart is trading very technically using Fib levels (outlined with yellow / green lines). The market has a very high level of uncertainty, as do businesses and governments April 2 will likely be close to a top for the current retrace. Interestingly, the -1.618 just so happens to be the top reached in 2022. This is also likely to intersect the lower trendline (white) AND the volume shelf established as part of the previous high and retrace at the $400 level. What do you think?
NASDAQ:QQQ
by novamatic
XLC Time Frame Continuity Strength Communications are showing strength. This week they had unusual volume with new highs and seem to have found support. RSI is near the oversold area and XLC is sitting above the current most VWAP. There are support and resistance zones in the horizontal lines in grey. My stop loss will be around 92.89. My exit plan is once the gap is closed on 99.18. The shorts are running out of steam and volume has picked up over the last week. Looking for LEAPs.
AMEX:XLCLong
by GlennTrading
SPY: Last week of March ish Oh yeah, posting early because I had coffee this evening and am wired. Happy Friday! Hope you all had a safe and profitable trading week, if not, don't sweat it, the PA was pretty bad and pretty challenging for most. The worst part is the current PA requires a lot of patience. If you're a scalper, probably not so bad but I personally find there are a lot more scalp traps lately than usual, so I do advise against scalps. Doing another written post, just because I find I can organize my analysis and thoughts better and be more in-depth without wasting too much of your time. So let's start off with the summary for next week, adding some new variables that my stuff tracks but I generally don't share, but I should share because it may be helpful for you. Summary Here is the snapshot for SPY for next week: Best fit high target 567.96 with a probability of 29% (shown on the chart in white) Best fit low target is 553.95 with a probability of 73% (shown on the chart in white) Expected return on the week is -0.6% Expected High ATR Range from RSI is 3.20 (open to high) Expected Low ATR Range from RSI is -4.05 (open to low) Expected High ATR Range from MFI is 5.18 (open to high) Expected Low ATR Range from MFI is -3.01 (open to low) Expected High ATR Range from Stochastic is 3.38 (open to high) Expected Low ATR Range from Stochastic is -6.7 (open to low) SPY Remains below the EMA 200 on the day, having had multiple rejections, and multiple attempts at reclaiming but always failing to hold. We still have our outstanding 5% pullback from the cross below the EMA 200. The TP is approximately 533 ish. Overall, based on the summary, the outlook is bearish. 🐻 Volume Data Volume profile has shifted from a sea of selling to a lot of buying over the last 5 days. POC for the last 5 days (1 trading week) is now up to 564, so this will be an area to watch for consolidation and generally not an area to take a trade. This is a very important thing to keep in mind, you don't want to do anything if SPY is at 564 as this is consolidation zone based on volume!!!! Volume remains overall low. If we look at the last 25 trading days, we can see that sellers are very much there, it is likely that we have just dropped in volume this past week. Take a look at the 25 day (1 trading month) volume profile: If you read the description in the volume profile chart, you will understand the predicament, and also understand kind of, where the rangeyness and whipsaw come from. There is still a lot of panic in the market, a lot of fear, people are trapped and looking for exits. This translates to stark rejections of certain levels where bulls and bears are trapped. Leading into this week we only had trapped bulls, now we have trapped bulls and bears, so we are between a rock and a hard place in terms of making progress in a direction without seeing a lot of covering leading to some more volatility and whipsaw. Overall, the volume metrics are positive and I would rank them as bullish. 🐂 EMA Data We crossed below the EMA 200 on March 10th and closed below on the day. This historically leads to 5% pullback on average across both SPX, ES1! and SPY. The pullback of 5% is calculated from the close of the day, which was around 557. So, 557 - 5% is about 529 ish (I am rounding, the TP is more around 531 - 533). Currently we are holding the EMA 300 as support. We have had over 3 failed reclaims of the EMA 200. Overall, the EMA statistics are bearish 🐻. Time Series I haven't talked about time series in a hot minute. Like years acutually. So those of you who are long time followers, hi, how are you?! You will remember the sacred time series that carried us through the 2022 decline. As of right now, I am leaning heavily to the quadratic time series model. Leaning towards a quadratic model assumes bear market correction. This could be or couldn't be. We won't know for sure until the market makes a new ATH. However, it was my guiding light in 2022 and it is current guiding light right now. So let's just go over SPY's quadratic time mean, range and forecast very quickly. SPY's qudratic time series model can be expressed as y = trading days(-3.902e-02) + trading days squared(1.062e-05) + 1.109e+02 Sigma or residual error range is 39.32 Taking this into consideration, SPY's current quadratic range is between 529 and 451. 451 is the LCL or lower confidence level. The LCL is where SPY found a bottom in 2022. Historically in bear markets, only 1 bear market has exceeded the LCL, and that was in 2008, where it exceeded by around 5 points. Overall, the time series statistics are bearish 🐻. Quick side note, if you followed me during 2022 and you have a photographic memory, you will notice our sigma (error range) is the exact same as currently, +/- 39. Kind of cool because it tells us SPY is really not doing anything it hasn't done before. Forecast for Next Week Forecast using only this past week data Forecast using the entire downtrend period and this consolidation period Data input: Forecast result over the next 150 hours: Overall, the forecast is bearish 🐻. Verdict We have what? Four bears, 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 for 1 bull 🐂. To summarize Volume: Bullish Overall stats: Bearish Time series: Bearish Forecast: Bearish EMA Bearish My expectation is up towards 570 into Monday, before seeing a rejection and consolidation again. Currently, the EMA 200 is at 568, 570 would require another break of the ema 200 and fail. The bearish thesis would be tentatively invalidated if we were to break and hold above the EMA 200. In this case, we would be looking for a further bounce of around 5% more upside. Those are my thoughts, not advice of course. As always, safe trades! 🚀 Side note: We are all sick and tired of SPY. Leave a comment with a request for something more interesting and I will try to get around to it this weekend! Maybe TSLA or something different.
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
48
* SPY : Elliot Waves Bullish Bias *I don't care if you are a bull that believes this is the beginning of price recovery or a bear that believes that this is just a slight retracement to gear up for the major downtrend. I am here to show you different possible scenarios during my Elliot Waves learning process. In the main image of this post, you can see that bulls have completed a 5 impulse Wave 1 and have now completed a ABC flat correction Wave 2. If I'm correct, we are now in the beginning of Wave 3 with a price target 581-587. Now lets take a closer look to where we are: - From the 5 Impulse waves that make W3, we are now in Wave 1 which also has 5 impulses and $570 for its target. - Zooming in closer, you can see that we have just completed the first wave and are now making the second wave with a price target between 561.92(full length of wave A) and 559 (23% Fib LVL). - After this correction wave is completed, I expect us to have a strong momentum towards W3 price target at 566, a quick and sharp correction for W4, and a last impulse towards our first main target that will be testing or possibly explode through $570. - After we hit our first wave target, I do expect price to consolidate for a bit, hopefully holding the 570 level, and prepare for another explosive wave towards 578 and then our 581-587 area target. to complete the this 5 impulse wave. * It is important to remind you that this is the scenario I see happening on the idea that SPY has completed its correction and is now aiming to continue our uptrend towards new ATH. For this to happen, I would prefer to see this Wave 3 blasting through its price target and possibly testing 590 and above, leaving little space for a quick W4 correction and then proceeding to levels near ATH. In the main picture, I highlighted $597 as a level to confirm a bullish this bullish theory. * I will later on post my bearish view on SPY just so you don't get too comfortable. We can't leave your therapist without a job. And at the end of the day, keep in mind that we are out here to observe the market and take advantage of its ups and downs. Manage your risks, ride the waves, and let the gods of the charts dictate where price go.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Caramel0
3
SPY Morning Scalping Game Plan – March 21, 20251. Market Overview * Current Price: $560.34 (Pre-market) * Max Pain Level: $580 (Potential magnet, but unlikely today) * Gamma Exposure: -86.8% Puts → Market makers will sell into weakness and buy into strength * Major Support Zones: * $560.20 → Highest negative NetGEX Put Support * $555 → 3rd Put Wall (-71.85%) * $550 → 2nd Put Wall (-88.58%) * Major Resistance Zones: * $570 → 10.85% Call Resistance * $573-$575 → 2nd Call Wall (9.91%) * $580 → 3rd Call Wall (9.3%) 2. Expected Market Behavior * Bearish bias in the morning due to BOS (Break of Structure) * Key Decision Area: $560 * If $560 holds, expect a bounce toward $565-$570 * If $560 breaks, expect a dump to $555-$550 * GEX Suggests Market Makers Will Sell Into Weakness: * If SPY drops, expect acceleration downward * If SPY spikes up, market makers will fade the move 3. Scalping Playbook Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely) 📉 If SPY loses $560.20 with strong selling volume → Short opportunity * Entry: Below $560 with confirmation * Target 1: $555 * Target 2: $550 (if heavy selling continues) * Stop Loss: Above $562 ✅ Confirmation Signs: * Strong volume on breakdown * Stochastic & MACD trending lower * SPY fails to reclaim $560 after testing Scenario 2: Bullish Reversal (Less Likely but Possible) 📈 If SPY holds $560 support and reverses → Long opportunity * Entry: Above $562 with strong buying pressure * Target 1: $565 (gap fill) * Target 2: $570 (call resistance) * Stop Loss: Below $560 ✅ Confirmation Signs: * Buyers stepping in at $560 * Bullish divergence in Stochastic/MACD * Break of lower highs on smaller timeframes 4. Key Indicators to Watch * VWAP: If SPY trades below VWAP, bias remains bearish. * 9 EMA & 21 EMA: If 9 EMA crosses below 21 EMA, trend confirms down. * Options Flow: Watch for large put selling or call buying for a shift. 5. Risk Management * Take profits quickly! Market is volatile. * If SPY is choppy → Wait for clear breaks above/below key levels. * Avoid counter-trend scalps unless you see strong divergences. 6. Summary * Bias: Bearish below $560, bullish only if reclaiming $562. * Bearish Setup: Breakdown below $560 → Target $555-$550 * Bullish Setup: Bounce off $560 → Target $565-$570 🚀 Game Plan: Watch SPY’s reaction at $560. If it holds, play the bounce. If it breaks, short to $555-$550. Stay nimble and manage risk tightly. Let me know if you need real-time updates as market opens! 🔥
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
2
“History Rhyming? A Deja Vu Moment in QQQ’s Price Action”Parabolic Run-Up Followed by a Sharp Decline • Both patterns exhibit a strong rally leading into a rounded top formation before experiencing a steep decline. • This suggests a classic distribution phase followed by a downtrend. 2. Top Formation & Reversal • In both cases, the price reaches a peak and forms a lower high structure before starting its descent. • This indicates potential selling pressure increasing at higher levels. 3. Volume Profile • There is increased volume near the peak and during the decline, showing distribution and panic selling. • This reflects a shift in sentiment, from bullish enthusiasm to risk-off behavior. 4. Downtrend Acceleration • After breaking key support levels, the downtrend accelerates, leading to rapid sell-offs in both cases. Key Differences: • The first pattern (older) shows a more dramatic sell-off after the top, likely due to external macro factors. • The second pattern, while following a similar structure, has not yet fully confirmed whether the decline will match the first in magnitude or find stronger support. Implication: If history repeats, price may continue declining after a brief consolidation. However, external conditions (macro factors, interest rates, liquidity) will influence whether the pattern fully plays out as before.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by PortfolioActivity