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Some Thoughts on The S&P 500 Right NowIn my new 2025 project, I’m sharing charts with annotations on major risk assets right here. Since the correction started in December, I’ve been marking key levels on the S&P 500 and have updated the chart again with today’s price action. Comparing today’s levels to the chart from earlier this week, it’s clear that patience has been the right approach. The mapped-out levels have held up, and even Howard Marks has been exploring the possibility of a bubble call. While I don't think that many people calling a top suddenly means a top is coming, actually I sometimes think the opposite, I still take note that people are possibly using this as a moment to adjust positions. The tax year literally just ended. A new administration starts in less than 10 days. Record amounts of cash are still on the sidelines. The point is, money needs to move, and downward market is the kind of action needed to start this process. Now, back to the chart above, the market is back in its gap-fill zone, a magnet for prices that often highlights extreme optimism or pessimism in after-hours trading, only to reverse if things have moved too far, too fast. So here we are on a Friday—no need to rush in. Instead, now is the time to start making lists of your favorite names. The correction has created opportunities, and being prepared is key. I’ll share some of my own picks soon. This sell-off may even be a healthy rotation heading into the new administration, as markets reposition after the tax season wrap-up in December 2024. So what does this all mean? If you have cash, stay sharp and ready. If you're long at this moment, I don't see this as the moment to sell. If you're short at this moment, I think you are just shorting in the hole and you missed the move! The chop back upward could be swift. Best move in a market like this: map out your zones and be patient.
AMEX:SPY
by scheplick
1
Opening (IRA): ARKK Feb 21st 45/50/61/66 Iron Condor... for a 1.43 credit. Comments: An additive delta adjustment trade. With the short call of the setup I put on Friday (See Post Below) at -20 delta and the short put at 29, layering in an iron condor with the short call at the -28 delta and the short put at the 20 delta to flatten out net delta of the entire position. This is skewed slightly short to offset the slightly long delta skew of the setup I put on Friday, so am indicating that it's "short." Metrics: Max Profit: 1.43 Buying Power Effect: 3.57 ROC at Max: 40.06% 50% Max: .72 ROC at 50% Max: 20.03% Since you can't close out an eight-legged setup, will either look to take off each iron condor individually at 50% max or mix and match profitable call side with profitable put side to reduce units/risk running into expiry.
AMEX:ARKKShort
by NaughtyPines
Bull & Bear into the New Year | Week 1 2025 $SPY OptionsAMEX:SPY Last week, our $585 PUT 1/13 was a killer, producing two daytrades that ran for 50% and 132%! Here is what we are watching for this week: We have reclaimed bullish trend and expect consolidation within this range from $584.59 to $607.45. Last two weeks have been low volume and profit taking. We are using this bullish trendline for confirmation using 15-30 minute candle closes. $601 Call 1/24 Entry: Retest and hold of bullish trendline Targets 🎯: $599, $601, $603, $608 $590 Put 1/24 Entry: Breakdown and failed retest of trendline Targets 🎯: $590, $584.59
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois
TLT long, long and only long, don't give up and keep it with youAgain me and again my TLT))) First of all we should keep safety and creditworthiness U.S. Treasuries are backed by the U.S. government, making them one of the safest investments globally. They are considered risk-free in terms of credit risk, as the U.S. government has never defaulted on its debt. The second one and the most important point - we have ATTRACTIVE Yield Opportunities 10y 4.77% 20y 5.041% 30y 4.959% Starting from the 1980s, this is the second time the Fed is cutting interest rates while yields are rising. Of course, this carries certain risks, and experienced investors know that the 1980s were not the best times for reliable investments. The market is anticipating a new wave of inflation, and professional participants do not agree with the Fed's 1% cut. Especially with the 50-basis-point decision in September. Up to this point, many believe that the fight against inflation has failed, and some banks even fear that not only will the rates remain unchanged, but further hikes are possible. No, no, and once again, no. With inflation at 3% or a bit higher, rates of 4.5% cannot logically rise further. They might remain unchanged for an extended period or be reduced slightly, taking macroeconomic indicators into account. Currently, the market is not moving out of fear of a strong labor market or high inflation but exclusively out of fears related to the Trump administration. These include promises of new sanctions, tough measures against migration, and tax relief. I honestly believe that of the aforementioned, only the tax relief will be fully implemented. There will be a few formal sanctions, primarily targeting China, while migration policies will remain election promises and not actionable programs. In the face of all this, we have very low TLT and very high yields for 20+ or even 10y, which are truly worth our bid.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by gorgevorgian
2
$IWM Recap of Last week - 30min 200MA resistance - Under 50DMAFor times sake right now I’m going to just post this chart and I will be back to write a description later if it is even necessary. I just want a record of last week and how it played out before I move into the next days trading range. The week started at the red arrow And took a nose dive from there. 30 minute two under average is currently resistance and we’re trading pretty far underneath the 50 day moving average. Let me know your thoughts on IWM
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$QQQ Recap of Last Week - Down on the Year - New Downtrend?NASDAQ:QQQ Recap of Last Week - Down on the Year - Bigger Downtrend Starting Wow, what a chart. Last week we opened with a gap up above the 30 minute two moving average and then we hit the down gap from December 27 and that was also the top of the downtrend line. (Redbeard arrow) From there, we took it all the way down to the downtrend line (green arrow) So underneath the 30 min 200MA, the 1he 200, the 35EMA, under the 50DMA, filled the gap from the first week and we closed at the bottom of the days range. And as of right now premarket looks like we're gonna break down this down trend and take it lower What a week!! 😅 New week trading ranges coming soon
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
$SPY #IslandBoy #ComingSoon like $PLTR $TSLA $VFCCrystal ball telling me AMEX:SPY is gonna leave put buyer's stuck on an island in the coming weeks/months. Higher Lows + Higher Highs = Uptrend intact I always mention "Shakeout B4 Breakouts" AMEX:SPY wedge + Election = WallofWorry/Fear (Buy when...?) Tomorrow could be filled with more "fear" perhaps a vol spike, but I expect/hope for AMEX:SPY to hold this gap down range then Gap up Thorsday and put up a strong gap + hammer candle... - Prophecies PS; If looking for recent #Island examples check tickers in title. All recently putting up "Island Reversals" after earnings... Election = Spy "Earnings"
AMEX:SPYLong
by Prophecies_R_Us
13
$SPY Recap of Last Week - Down on the Year - At the 4hr 200MARecap of Last Week - Down on the Year - At the 4hr 200MA and Election Gap There is a lot to see in this chart and this is a recap of last week where we opened with a gap up above the 50 day moving average took it right to the downward facing 30 minute 200MA to the 1hr 200MA that is where we saw a massive rejection and that is at the red arrow. From there we reversed and we took it back underneath the 30 minute 200MA average to the 50 day average the 35 EMA we drop down to the up gap from the first week briefly bounced on that before taking it back up to the 35 EMA getting rejected and flung all the way down to the four hour two removing average right at the election gap. We are just about to head into the third trading week of the year and futures are underneath the election gap. Let me know what your thoughts are as we had into the third week.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
Short QQQ Next Week: Brace for Potential Decline Amidst Bearish - Key Insights: Given the current bearish trend in QQQ, it is essential for investors to remain cautious. Key resistance is at 511, while immediate support resides at 503. Declines may head towards 492-488 if the downtrend continues, suggesting a focus on these critical levels for decision-making. Sellers currently dominate, leading to expectations of sideways movement and testing of support. - Price Targets: - Next week targets: - T1 = 500 - T2 = 495 - Stop levels: - S1 = 511 - S2 = 515 - Recent Performance: Over the past month, QQQ has dropped approximately 6%, indicating a broader struggle within the technology sector. The bearish candle patterns highlight persistent weakness, and a cautious approach is warranted as QQQ nears crucial support. The trend has seen sellers overpower buyers consistently, reinforcing negative sentiment. - Expert Analysis: Analysts highlight that the QQQ faces significant supply pressure and needs to reclaim resistance at 511 to shift sentiment. The prevailing bearish outlook posits that if sellers maintain control, further declines to the 492-488 range are plausible. Maintaining awareness of key moving averages for major tech companies like AMD remains essential for directionality. - News Impact: The market is impacted by macroeconomic conditions, particularly the fluctuations in Treasury yields hovering around 5%, which affect equity valuations. Concerns about technology sector health, especially with high- profile companies struggling against key moving averages, continue to shape sentiment and trading strategy for QQQ.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by CrowdWisdomTrading
S&P 500 is gearing up for a drop to $348.11 or even $218.26.SP:SPX AMEX:SPY are gearing up for a potential crash. Markets and indices seem aligned for a downturn. What will trigger it? Hard to say, but watching the stock and crypto markets, it certainly looks that way. My expectations for SPX / SPY: ➖ Fibonacci 161.80% targets have been reached. ➖ Key downside levels: $348.11 and $218.26. TVC:DXY The dollar index is leaning towards growth for now. I think it might follow this scenario. Let’s keep an eye on how things develop.
AMEX:SPYShort
by SergioRichi
4