Industrial ETF May Face ResistanceThe SPDR Select Sector Industrial ETF dropped in early April, and some traders may expect another push to the downside.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the March 13 low of $128.26. XLI peaked $0.44 under that level this month, which may suggest old support has become new resistance.
Second, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) recently had a “death cross” below its 200-day SMA. That may suggest the long-term trend has gotten more bearish.
Third, the stochastics oscillator’s leading line crossed under the smoothing signal line.
Fourth, the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) has remained under the 21-day EMA.
Finally, XLI hit a 52-weeek low of $112.75 on April 7. Is a retest of that support needed?
Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
SPDR Select Sector Industrial ETF (XLI)
1-year: +4.06%
5-years: +122.11%
10-year: +135.02%
(As of March 31, 2025)
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ETF market
QQQ, Weekly RSI has reached oversold territory just 4 other timeIt's also came at or near a long-term bottom.
If you're a long-biased trader looking for high-probability entries, this setup deserves your attention.
The weekly RSI just hit oversold territory — something that’s only happened 4 times in the last 10 years. Each of those times? It marked a major bottom or the start of a strong bullish trend.
We’re also bouncing near long-term horizontal support (~$420) and holding above a rising trendline that’s defined the bull market since 2018.
If price continues to hold this zone and RSI starts curling back up, I’ll be looking to go long.
Stop below $420. Reward-to-risk looks solid if momentum confirms.
Not calling the exact bottom — just positioning where the risk makes sense.
SPY -Europe closed. Jap deal failure. Big move todayEurope market being closed major traders from europe will be absent. This will allow big move in the USA market today. Also Japanese deal failure will sink the market
Market has again somewhat formed a Head-Shoulder pattern. Target for the week 498
$DIA - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened DIA with a gap up and over the trump tweet gap and we were met with resistance right at the downward facing 30min 200MA
You can see the three arrows all week — you don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average.
Wednesday UHC and Jerome powell both took a toll on the Dow, and Friday we gapped down and traded near the bottom of the implied move.
I look to the Dow as a leading indicator of market health. When we started in slide down off of ATH’s we saw it in the DOW first. Dow had a rough week here last week. Red 35EMA rejected at the 30min 200MA
Technically a beautiful week. All while closing within the implied move.
ALSO - take a look at where we saw the signal line turn red.
$IWM - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened last week on Monday with a gap up right into the bear gap and got pushed out. From there we dropped down to the 35EMA and bounce there to just underneath that bear gap again.
Tuesday tried to get further into that gap and got pushed out again.
Wednesday and Thursday we regrouped and stayed close to the 35EMA which is still underneath the downward facing 30min 200. We did drop underneath that 35EMA on Wednesday when Jerome powell spoke and then reclaimed it on Friday!!
So Last week can be summed up in small caps as we got pushed out of Trumps Week gap from the week before and consolidated back to the 35EMA
$IWM - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened last week on Monday with a gap up right into the bear gap and got pushed out. From there we dropped down to the 35EMA and bounce there to just underneath that bear gap again.
Tuesday tried to get further into that gap and got pushed out again.
Wednesday and Thursday we regrouped and stayed close to the 35EMA which is still underneath the downward facing 30min 200.
So Last week can be summed up in small caps as we got pushed out of the interest rate gap from the week before and consolidated back to the 35EMA
$QQQ - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA.
++ You typically don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++
And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday.
On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing down almost 3%
And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA.
Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish)
30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move.
$SPY - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA.
++ You typically don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++
And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday.
On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing about 2.25%
And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA.
Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish)
30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move.
Easy setup and we didn't get above the first resistance (35EMA)
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For The Week Of April 20-25 : CautionI want to thank all of you for the great comments and questions over the past few months.
I'm very impressed by all of you and how well many of you are picking up my techniques to improve your trading results.
This video is more of a Pre-Week review - telling you why I expect the markets to trade/trend a certain way over the next 5 to 25+ days (or longer).
Additionally, I want to remind all of you my research goes much deeper (behind the scenes) than what you see in these Plan Your Trade videos.
I know many of you rely on my morning videos and some of you have messaged me about how important my videos are in helping you prepare for the day's price range/trend.
Ultimately, I started doing these Plan Your Trade videos to highlight my SPY Cycle patterns and to prove my research is accurate and helpful. Obviously, if my technology/techniques were failures, I would be hearing about it from lots of people by now.
But that is not the case. It appears my SPY Cycle Patterns and other techniques/tools are very well appreciated and are really helping traders learn to build better skills for greater success.
And that is what this is all about.
Remember, I've been lucky enough to rub shoulders with some of the greatest traders/minds on the planet for the past 35+ years. Sometimes, we would sit down for Coffee and share ideas. Sometimes, they would hire me to explore something they thought was important (coding/research). At other times, we would simply show up at an event together and chat about life and the markets.
I was lucky.
I got into this industry in the late 1980s (a long time ago) and have continued to learn new things and build my skills over the past 35+ years.
Now, I'm trying to share some of that knowledge with all of you so you can carry this information forward and make a real difference in your life (finding success while trading).
One of the biggest things I continue to try to teach all of you is PATIENCE.
Right now, the markets are in a unique phase (consolidation in a downward trend). You are going to have to learn to WAIT for the best trade setups and try not to force the markets do to what you want.
If you are not sure what to trade, sit on the CASH until you see a better opportunity.
OK. This week, after Easter, should be fairly quiet. Tax day and Easter usually fall fairly close to one another. This year, they were on the same week.
The markets are usually very flat near Tax Day - so don't expect much in terms of trending.
Volatility is still elevated. So, we may see some wild price action this week. Trade smaller amounts if you are still unsure about direction/setups.
Get some...
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 21–25, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸 Tariff Fallout Deepens: Markets remain volatile as President Trump's recent tariff policies continue to unsettle investors. The S&P 500 is down 14% from its February peak, with recession fears escalating. Economists now estimate a 45% chance of a downturn within the next year, up from 25% previously.
🚗 Tesla's Anticipated Earnings: Tesla is set to report Q1 earnings on Tuesday. Options pricing suggests a potential 9.3% stock movement post-report. Investors are keenly awaiting updates on AI initiatives, including the robotaxi network and the Optimus humanoid robot.
🛢️ Oilfield Services Under Pressure: Halliburton, Baker Hughes, and SLB will release earnings this week amid declining oil prices and tariff-induced cost pressures. Analysts warn that sustained crude prices below $60 could lead to a 20% drop in domestic oilfield activity.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 21:
No major economic data releases scheduled.
📅 Tuesday, April 22:
🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 4.20 million
Previous: 4.38 million
Provides insight into the housing market's health and consumer demand.
📅 Wednesday, April 23:
📊 S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI (9:45 AM ET):
Forecast: Manufacturing 49.5; Services 51.0
Previous: Manufacturing 49.2; Services 50.8
Indicates the economic health of the manufacturing and services sectors.
📈 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 675,000
Previous: 662,000
Measures the number of newly constructed homes sold, reflecting housing market trends.
📘 Federal Reserve Beige Book (2:00 PM ET):
Provides a summary of current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts.
📅 Thursday, April 24:
📉 Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -0.5%
Previous: 1.3%
Reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of factory hard goods.
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 230,000
Previous: 223,000
Indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.
📅 Friday, April 25:
📊 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 76.5
Previous: 77.2
Assesses consumer confidence in economic activity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Junk Bonds on Bounce?The High Yield Corporate Bond ETF AMEX:HYG is a widely watched risk sentiment gauge, as seen within the renowned "Fear and Greed Index," and closely tied to credit conditions and investor appetite for riskier debt. It reflects how much confidence the market has in lower-rated corporate borrowers—making it a strong proxy for broader risk-on/risk-off shifts.
Technically, HYG looks like it may have completed a five wave impulsive structure from the 2022 lows, followed by an ABC correction that found support near 75.60. That (C) leg could mark the end of the correction, especially with recent price action holding above Kumo cloud support on lower timeframes, hinting at a potential reversal or at least stabilization.
Fundamentally, there’s a lot in flux. Inflation is still sticky, which has kept the Fed cautious on any immediate rate cuts. At the same time, tariff talk targeting Chinese imports rekindled fears of trade friction and margin compression—especially for leveraged companies. Credit stress is also rising, with default rates ticking up in weaker sectors like consumer credit and commercial real estate.
The silver lining for bulls: the U.S. dollar has recently pulled back, easing pressure on corporate borrowers and global funding conditions. A weaker dollar can be supportive of high-yield credit as it reduces debt servicing burdens, especially for firms with dollar-denominated liabilities.
Junk bonds are approaching a pivotal level. A clean break above the $78 would strengthen the case for a bullish reversal and a new impulsive phase. But if resistance holds and price rolls over, it may warn that markets aren't out of the woods yet. In any case, HYG remains a powerful gauge within the market’s risk engine.
Trading Idea: Range Breakout StrategyBias: Neutral-to-Bullish (for breakout)
Setup:
SPY is consolidating between $520–534. A clean break above this zone could signal continuation toward the pivot level at 562.75.
Entry Options:
Aggressive Long:
Buy near current levels (~526), stop-loss below $520, target $534 short-term and $550–562 swing target.
Conservative Long (Breakout):
Buy above $534, on confirmed breakout with volume. Stop-loss just below $528. Target: $548–562.
Bearish Scenario (if breakdown):
If price falls below $520 with strong red volume, potential retest of $511 support and further down toward $500 or $480 (S2).
Short entry below $520, stop-loss at $526, target $511 then $500.
Volume Insight:
Strong green bar at bounce near $480 indicates buyer interest.
Current candles show indecision; breakout or breakdown will likely be volume-driven.
disclaimer: The trade idea presented is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Market Update - 4/20/2025Breadth improving, a lot of stocks are starting to set up, there were even a few breakouts last week which is all constructive. Metals and miners are still leading, as well as defense names. NASDAQ:MVST is looking the best, have a good sized position in it, let's see how it evolves next week. I still remain defensive though, only 3 positions.
Gold ETF (GLD): Volume-Powered Breakout
GLD has gained 60% since breaking out at 191.65 in March 2024. It now aims for 318.85, with a longer-term target of 350.65 if the macro backdrop continues to deteriorate.
Demand Drivers: Safe haven flows, central bank accumulation, and the loss of confidence in USD-backed bonds. Volume confirms conviction buying.
Strategic Implication: GLD is confirming the broader shift out of fiat and into hard assets. Investors expect instability to persist.
Commodities are trying to form a nice breakoutCommodities look to be forming a start of a nice breakout against the S&P. Commodities are undervalued versus history and are a good diversifier for stagflationary environments. it is interesting that commodities haven't seen a stagflationary bid yet. we might see one in the near future.
SPY Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for SPY is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 526.40
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 554.18
My Stop Loss - 512.11
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Ratio-to-Butterfly: Flag-Based Premium Harvesting“Most people hunt the kill.
But the ones who build the terrain?
They eat forever.”
Purpose: Capitalize on clean trend support and structure with a low-cost entry that allows you to harvest premium before the breakout, and optionally tighten the structure to a butterfly when the breakout becomes likely.
Base Strategy: Short Put Ratio Spread
Example: +1 31P / -2 30P (AAAU)
Entry credit: ~$1.44
Structure: 27 DTE, high POP (>99%)
Reason: Price near support, low probability of hitting short strike
Theta-driven profit engine with low directional pressure
Conversion Strategy: Butterfly Overlay
Trigger: Price begins to drift toward the short strike, or flag tightens near inflection
Move: Buy 1 lower put (e.g., 29P) to convert ratio into butterfly
Structure: +1 31P / -2 30P / +1 29P
Result: Caps downside risk and tightens profit zone
Exit: Max profit if price pins near short strike at expiry
Psychology of the Setup:
"Start with the house's money, then shape the bet." You’re not chasing the move — you’re pre-positioned. Use the casino’s chips (credit from wide ratio) to build structure that pays on drift, stall, or controlled breakout.
Ideal Conditions:
Price near clean structural support
Flag forming above key moving average (e.g., 200D)
IV elevated but not extreme
No bid or low open interest on short leg = market not pricing breakdown
Exit Scenarios:
Full hold: Price stays above both strikes → keep full credit
Mid-cycle flatten: Price begins drifting → convert to butterfly
Spike or fail: Close early for partial gain, roll if needed
Repeatability Score: ✅✅✅✅☆ This setup is ideal for weekly/monthly cycles, ETF swings, and earnings coil plays where clean structure exists.
SPY forming an ugly diamond bottom: Big move soonDecided to just ignore all the noise and go back to the basics for this one.
We got a classic ugly diamond bottom, a ton of volatility after a large price move followed by reduced volatility, some symmetry but there are bits that pop out of the pattern on both sides.
Diamonds don't have to look perfect for them to be legit, this one is certainly no beauty and I was hesitating to call it one, but I think it is close enough.
Measured moved for each side is 570 (up to the liberation day announcement) if there is a positive breakout, and 470 down to the next level of support if there is a negative breakout.
Volume is declining from when we entered the diamond shape, which typically points to a bullish breakout. If we get positive tariff news this could definitely happen.
Ultimately watch for a break of 520 for a bearish move and a break of 536 for a bullish move.