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Happy October!I think I have been around for... 3 Octobers so far? Probably, and each time I always do a themed post! Since October is my favourite time of the year. October also marks the beginning of the end. The end of a trading year at the end of this new quarter. And in the interest of going all out with different October themes and providing you with information into the year end, I suspect this will be a lengthy post, not simply talking about what to expect for October, but also talking about the bigger picture into the end of the year and trading year. I guess we can break it down, we can break it down to the short term, next week, the month then the EOY. The Short Term The short term (i.e. next week) is, again, looking bullish. Expect some downside days, but just generally look for bullishness. Momentum is lacking. Ironically we are experiencing price action I call "Zombie Buying". Most call it "grinding" but its zombie buying. What that means is, there is 0 momentum, low volume, but 0 reason to sell. So we have small buyers, like retail, buying because, well, there is nothing else to do, and so we get a slow and painful grind up. Its mindless buying, for no reason, so hence why I call it "zombie buying". You can see volume, while steady, has been lackluster. Its more than likely we will see bearishness at points next week. Outlook is more bearish on QQQ for Monday than SPY, so SPY may end up just grinding and trying to move higher, while QQQ sees a bit of a sell. But the motto remains to buy the dip. The immediate target for next week is a move back to 569.29. If we take a look at the last week's worth of Volume nodes: Those are our top POCs/volume zones that you can look for from last week's trading, with the lowest being at 568.68, which would serve as an ideal pullback zone. The best fit forecasted high for SPY next week is 577.60, assuming a bullish bias. And for the low its 563.62 assuming a bearish bias. The Larger Outlook, Month and EOY So, as we are in a new quarter, we have some new high probability targets. We still need to see 585 into EOY. 585 is actually the quarter point forecast, so that is great news! However, with the new quarter, we now have a bit of a bearish high prob on SPX as well: 5,657 is the SPX target. We have yet to hit it, so if we don't pullback into next week enough to remove it, and we run up to the 585 first, it will make for a nice pullback play towards EOY. If we run an ARIMA on SPX (Because I don't want to disrupt my SPY art already haha): The point forecast for SPX, over the next 75 ish trading days into EOY, is 6,232. This is a price of around 621 on SPY. Do I think it goes that high? Probably not, especailly with the lack of momentum we are seeing come in. But it is possible. With the gains SPY has already made, its hard to see how much more they push it on a Santa Rally, but I think anticipation of the low 600s, to 600 is not impossible. Its interesting as well because if we go back to my beggining of year post for SPY, these were the ARIMA results: 80% Confidence that the true high of SPY next year will fall BELOW 591. 95% Confidence that the true high of SPY next year will fall BELOW 633. 80% Confidence that the true low of SPY next year will fall ABOVE 433. 95% confidence that the true low of SPY next year will fall ABOVE 391. So we knew as early as January that 600s were in the realm of possibility this year. 591 is something I do anticipate seeing at this point. So what is the answer for the "longer term"? I don't see any downturn starting before next year. And by downturn I mean bear market, correction, whatever you want to call it. I just don't see it happening until next year. The immediate anticipation is the move to 585. From there, perhaps we grind up on the Santa rally to 591 and potentially 600 to snag closer to the 95% range. This would be enough to cause a correction/pullback, if not just another 10% crash. The outlook for next year will remain to be assessed closer to that point. As of now, these are the targets I would be watching. Downside targets remain inconsequential at this point, imo. I guess that's it! Safe trades everyone and Happy October!!
AMEX:SPY
by Steversteves
6
IWM: Cup, Handle, and a Bullish GambleAMEX:IWM Original Chart : Been eyeing IWM lately, and honestly, this setup has the kind of potential that could get even the most cynical trader to sit up and pay attention. We’re looking at the *beginning* of a cup-and-handle-esque pattern so pristine it belongs in a TA textbook—classic accumulation followed by consolidation, like the bulls are quietly gearing up for something big. But here’s where it gets even more interesting: with the recent US election in the rearview and a lineup of Fibonacci extensions and moving averages all pointing in the same direction, this setup is practically begging for a breakout. Let’s dive into the details. Fibonacci Extensions and Price Targets Let’s talk targets. I’m looking at $315 and $365 based on Fibonacci extensions, and yes, that $365 target might sound ambitious, but hear me out. Fibs are like the star charts for traders—rooted in math, mystical enough for Twitter hype, and strangely accurate. $315 is the conservative target, sitting right around the 100% extension, where we might see price take a breather. But the real spotlight is on $365, the 200% extension level, which could be where we end up if this breakout goes full send. If Fibonacci levels have taught us anything, it’s that the universe loves a good price projection. Moving Averages and the Golden Cross Then there’s the 50-day and 200-day moving average crossover—the infamous “golden cross,” which might sound like something out of an Indiana Jones movie, but actually just signals bullish momentum. We’ve got price hanging above both moving averages, a classic recipe for sustained upward trends. Historically, this setup has a decent track record of making bulls look smart, and right now, it’s flashing green like a big, neon sign saying, “This way to higher prices.” Volume Profile and Key Levels between $200-$240 The Volume Profile is where things get interesting. That $200-$240 range is showing a massive amount of trading activity, acting like a gravity well for price. If IWM revisits this range and bounces around $235, that’s our green light for lift-off. This is the make-or-break level—the battleground where bulls and bears duke it out. Here’s the nuance: if price *rejects* $235 and consolidates, that’s what would actually form the handle of this cup-and-handle setup, setting the stage for a later breakout. If $235 holds, we’re looking at a more direct path upwards. If not, well… it might be time to rethink the moonshot narrative. Mapping Out the Bullish Scenarios So, we’re left with two paths. Path one is the steady grind up to our targets, where IWM just slowly marches its way to $315 and then potentially $365, no drama, just smooth sailing. Path two is the extended consolidation phase in the $200-$240 range through most of 2025, creating that classic “handle” structure. Think of it as the market getting in some much-needed cardio before the sprint. By end-Q1 2025, we should know which scenario is unfolding based on whether we hold above that $235 line. Curious to see if anyone else is seeing the same potential here. The combination of a cup-and-handle formation in the works, Fib extensions, and moving averages feels like a recipe for something substantial, but I’m always down to hear different perspectives. Are you all vibing with the $365 target, or is that too much hopium?
AMEX:IWM
by seaphoss
1
$QQQ: The election is over, here is where the markets are going NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NDX The charts say we are in a FULL on BULL RUN! Cup n Handle Measure Move hasn't hit yet at $560, the measure time is out until Feb2026. Ascending Triangle Breakout is happening now with a measure move to $580 by March2025. Also, a #HIGHFIVESETUP and why I pointed out that we would bounce on Halloween and hit ATH's this week. Like and Follow for more setups, we are just getting started. NFA #trading
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by RonnieV29
BITI (short Bitcoin)MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Bitcoin at $69K Price near bottom of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level VBSM is negative Buying shares at $6.82 to $6.75 Target is $7.50 or channel top Stop loss is $6.50
AMEX:BITILong
by chancethepug
TSLQ from $14.06 to $20MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at bottom top of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) near oversold level VBSM spiked negative In at $14.04 Target is $20 or channel top Stop loss is $13.75
NASDAQ:TSLQLong
by chancethepug
SPXL bouncing at .618 & .5 retrace area BOUNCE?MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at bottom of channel (periods 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) near oversold level VBSM popped negative Price at near.618 and .5 Fibonacci level In at $159.7 Target is $173 or channel top Stop loss is $153
AMEX:SPXLLong
by chancethepug
SPY bounce to $580MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price at bottom of upward trending channels (period 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level VBSM is spiked negative, just like September Price at near Fibonacci level, 0.618 retracement In at open on Monday. I would like to see price gap down to $563 (0.5 fib retrace), or $557 (100 period channel). My plan is to buy 1 position at Monday's open, 1 more position at $563 and 3 positions at $537.35. Stop loss is 1% of my purchase on Monday. Target is $580 or channel top
AMEX:SPYLong
by chancethepug
$QQQ $NASDAQ : WE WILL BE AT ATH'S NEXT WEEK. HERE IS THE CURE! NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:QQQ WE WILL BE AT ATH'S NEXT WEEK. HERE IS THE CURE! In this video, we will discuss the following 1.) We will look at the technicals and charts while going over multiple indicators and patterns pointing us in one direction on the markets...HIGHER 2.) Stick around to the end of the video as I give you the CURE to the markets' 3-5% pullback from recent highs, which will indeed take us to ATHs next week! Drop a comment below if you learned something new or want a deep dive into anything discussed in this video today. Stay tuned for more. LIKE l FOLLOW l SHARE NFA
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by RonnieV29
6
$IWM $RTY : Small Caps Ready to Explode! 💥 Small Caps Ready to Explode! 💥 We will be at ATH's this week: AMEX:IWM AMEX:TNA CAPITALCOM:RTY While everyone is buzzing about NASDAQ:TSLA CRYPTOCAP:BTC and how they will continue to skyrocket if election results stick and continue to favor Trump, no one’s talking about SMALL CAPS! Remember, during his last term, small caps had an impressive run. Let’s dive into the technicals in my latest video. In this video, we cover: 1️⃣ Technical Analysis: We’ll analyze charts and multiple indicators, all pointing to AMEX:IWM heading HIGHER. 📈 2️⃣ Patterns: A massive multi-year cup and handle pattern with an ascending triangle breakout is in play. Drop a comment below if you learned something new or want to explore any topics further. Stay tuned for more insights and show some love! LIKE | FOLLOW | SHARE CAPITALCOM:RTY AMEX:IWM AMEX:TNA NFA
AMEX:IWMLong
by RonnieV29
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-6 : Breakaway Post-ElectionWow. All I can say is WOW. Keeping a different schedule related to the markets had me in bed at about 9PM California time. Yea, I missed most of it last night. But my wife woke me up at midnight to tell me who won. When I got up this morning (early) and checked the markets, it sure looked like the world voted in favor of the Trump win, with a solid 2-3% rally overnight. This is where things start to get very interesting. We have about 70+ days until the inauguration (Jan 21, I believe). Between now and then, the US and global markets will attempt to shift towards new policies and expectations. Part of this will come from news, but much of it will come from policy expectations. Some sectors will shift direction. Others will extend existing trends. Smart traders should prepare for opportunities that align with their interests and realize that we are looking at some real risks over the next 4+ years. What I will state is I continue to believe the next 5-7+ years are the greatest opportunity of your life. Watch my video and buckle up. The markets are seeking a new base/frequency to transition into shifting expectations. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
7
SPY Technical Analysis for Scalping tomorrow Nov. 6, 2024Price Action Analysis Support and Resistance: Resistance levels appear around $583.32 and $584.46 based on recent highs, which SPY could test if bullish momentum continues. Support levels are near $574.32 and $567.89. If SPY pulls back, these levels may serve as areas where buyers might step in. Trend Analysis: SPY recently broke above a downtrend line (visible in the chart), which suggests a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. The price is currently trading above the 161 EMA and 15 EMA, indicating an uptrend in the short term. This aligns with bullish sentiment. Volume: There was a notable increase in volume during the recent breakout, which can confirm the strength of this upward movement. Indicators MACD: The MACD appears to be in a bullish crossover, which supports the potential for continued upward movement. Moving Averages (161 EMA and 15 EMA): The 15 EMA is above the 161 EMA, which is typically a bullish sign, especially for scalping. Scalping Strategy for Tomorrow Bullish Scenario: If SPY opens above $579 and maintains that level, consider an entry near $579 with a potential target around $583.32 to $584.46. Set a stop loss just below $578 to manage risk if it fails to hold above the current support level. Bearish Scenario: If SPY fails to hold above $579 and breaks below the support at $574.32, consider a short entry around $574 with a target near $567.89. Place a stop loss slightly above $575 to minimize potential losses. Suggested Direction Given the recent breakout and bullish crossover of the moving averages, the momentum leans bullish. However, it’s essential to monitor if SPY can hold above $579 at the open. Short Disclaimer This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Scalping is high-risk, and you should trade according to your risk tolerance and strategy.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
Today's setup of my chart on 5min 15min. Using "OrbFib+S&R" Breakdown of my action steps from open to close: 1) Wait 5min orb 15min ORB form to draw FIB. 2) Wait for (S) or (R) formed on 5min 15min to draw 3) Make plans using (S)&(R) and ORB fib levels 4) Use new (S) or (R) as risk entry, pair with OrbFib levels for confirmation. 5) mange position using (S) of the trend with OrbFib's levels (S) ------------------------------------------------------------ Common Fakeout: often can be solved using 15min candle confirmation. Reason is 5min candles can trick IMPATIENT traders before 15min close. To wait for 15min to close, Trader has to sit n watch 3 of 5min candles to close. Impatient traders always rushing, trying to predict/guess the result of how the candle is going to close before it close... makes no senese in logic. They focus too much on Prediction/Guessing, it makes them blind&bias, not listening to what candles says.
AMEX:SPY
by FIBivanSPY
Opening (IRA): USO Oct 18th 69 Monied Covered Call... for a 67.44 debit. Comments: This isn't as low as I wanted to get in, but the short call is below where I would've entered would have to have been more patient and waited for 70. In any event, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 67.44/share Max Profit: 1.56 ($156) ROC at Max: 2.31% ROC at 50% Max: .78 ($78) ROC at 50% Max: 1.16% Take profit at 50% max; roll in-profit short call to maintain net delta <30.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines
Opened (IRA): USO Dec 20th 63 Covered Call... for a 61.26 debit. Comments: (Late Post). High IV (67.7% as of Tuesday close) + weakness. Added a "rung" to my existing position at a strike better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 61.26 Max Profit: 1.74 ROC at Max: 2.84% 50% Max: .87 ROC at 50% Max: 1.42% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out in-profit short call on test of take profit. Here, the 50% max take profit would be .87 + 61.26 or 62.13.
AMEX:USOLong
by NaughtyPines