A STOCK MARKET CRASH IS COMING! WARNING! I hope you guys enjoyed the video! If you have any questions or comments feel free to Ask!
ETF market
$TLT - Finger to the skySome random artwork of what looks like a hand pointing upwards, thought I'd add some special effects haha
QQQ continues to test major resistanceQQQ rallied up its resistance and tests with false breakout
Volume increases over day before yesterday as resistance is tested again
RSI trends downward and stays below SMA
QQQ has been trending downward since August and now trying to break through its major resistance. Generally September and October are not great months for the market so extra caution must be taken during this time
GBTC holds all time support growth curve up 500%Follow @ethanalysis for incredible but VERY rare calls like this. #GBTC, #BTC, #CKB.
Triple Witching on FridayThis Friday, 9/20/24, is Triple witching. Here's a 4x split chart view of SPY, QQQ, DIA & IWM. With TTCATR indicator support & resistance levels on the 1 day chart.
Triple witching days are known for being volatile and having high volume. On these days, three types of derivative contracts expire simultaneously.
Stock options: Contracts that give the holder the right to buy or sell shares in a company at a specific price and on a specific date.
Stock index futures: Futures contracts on a stock index such as the S&P 500.
Stock index options: Option contracts on equity indexes.
SPY TTCATR VWMA20 levels: 1ATR = 7.34
ATR4 = 582
ATR3 = 575
ATR2 = 569
VWMA20 = 556
-ATR2 = 543
-ATR3 = 537
-ATR4 = 530
SPY 9/20/24 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 374,184
Call Volume Total 330,226
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.13
Put Open Interest Total 3,233,386
Call Open Interest Total 1,115,457
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.90
QQQ TTCATR VWMA20 levels: 1ATR = 8.75
ATR4 = 500
ATR3 = 492
ATR2 = 485
VWMA20 = 469
-ATR2 = 454
-ATR3 = 446
-ATR4 = 438
QQQ 9/20/24 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 178,606
Call Volume Total 188,794
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.95
Put Open Interest Total 1,621,234
Call Open Interest Total 1,117,192
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.45
DIA TTCATR VWMA20 levels: 1ATR = 4.89
ATR4 = 429
ATR3 = 425
ATR2 = 420
VWMA20 = 412
-ATR2 = 403
-ATR3 = 398
-ATR4 = 394
DIA 9/20/24 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 10,663
Call Volume Total 9,142
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.17
Put Open Interest Total 76,617
Call Open Interest Total 60,201
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.27
IWM TTCATR VWMA20 levels: 1ATR = 4.23
ATR4 = 231
ATR3 = 227
ATR2 = 223
VWMA20 = 215
-ATR2 = 207
-ATR3 = 203
-ATR4 = 199
IWM 9/20/24 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 214,539
Call Volume Total 313,620
Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.68
Put Open Interest Total 2,402,288
Call Open Interest Total 1,373,048
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.75
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-18 : Gap Potential & Fed DayThis video pretty much covers everything I've been telling all of you over the past 5+ days.
Yes, I'm planning on waiting out the consolidation/early trading today and waiting through the Fed decision. There is no reason to jump in front of a moving train attempting to change its direction or speed. You just get run over and beat up.
So, I'm going to take a break this morning, watching the markets and waiting for the Fed rate decision.
While I did look at some data points this morning, the one thing that caught my attention was the Mortgage Refinance Index. That index has jumped more than 45% over the past 12-16+ months while mortgage rates are still above 6%.
I believe this is an indication that ARM borrowers are under some pressure now (after roughly 36 months) to refinance and are dealing with higher rates. 2024-3 = 2021.
Those hot to buy anything after the COVID pandemic may have signed into ARM loans with a 3-year rate guarantee - which may now be rolling into fully adjustable rate loans. That would push the refinance index higher as these homeowners attempt to wiggle their way into something more realistic than the 6.5 to 7.5% rates on their ARMs now.
In my opinion, this is the only thing that may prompt the Fed to lower rates a bit - the pressure on a small segment of home owners in ARM loans that need some relief.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens today.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
VAS.ASX: 18 SEP, 2024 - Elliott Wave The Bullish Market©Master of Elliott Waves: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M.
From the low at 98.39, wave ((iii))-navy is unfolding to push higher higher, targeting the nearest target at 105.38 then higher. While price must remain above 98.39 to maintain this view.
$SPY September 18, 2024AMEX:SPY September 18, 2024
15 Minutes
AMEX:SPY managed to make an ATH at 566.57.
Now for the rise 539.95 to 566.57 it is important to hold 560.
Below that weakness can be seen for a target 554 +-1 levels. So shorting is not worth.
If AMEX:SPY manages to hold 563-566 levels, we can see 574 +- as a target for the longs.
A retracement is on cards due to oscillator divergence. or a sideways moment between 560-566 levels.
On a daily level, if AMEX:SPY consolidated between 556-566 levels i expect 574 as initial target.
Again. Not the time for shorts for me.
My View till the end of this weekMy View till the end of this week.
Playing with ES Dec contract and UVXY with a Bomb car .. Lool
Elliott Wave View on S&P 500 ETF (SPY) New All-Time High SuggestShort term Elliott Wave view on S&P 500 ETF (SPY) suggests that cycle from 8.5.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 564.2 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 539.44. The ETF has extended to new all-time high in wave (3). The internal subdivision of wave (3) takes the form of another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 549.34 and dips in wave ((ii)) ended at 539.96. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 556.85 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 552.74. Final leg wave ((v)) ended at 566.58 which completed wave 1 in higher degree.
Pullback in wave 2 is in progress to correct cycle from 9.7.2024 low with internal subdivision as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 560.79. Expect wave ((b)) to fail below 566.58 for another leg lower in wave ((c)) to complete wave 2. Afterwards, the ETF should then resume higher. Near term, as far as pivot at 537.86 low stays intact, expect pullback to find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Long XLK 206.35 Target 240Look daily chart look stoch on bottom turning up. Look candle saying buyers came in see the wick on daily candle, Vol not bad still more sellers. Nice swing trade long
240.
Know the kicker we rallied on AI like madness
rallied on Rate Cuts well gonna get them so rumor cut fact sell so they sold into it like I said it would fed cut means economy hmm not doing well and its not guys and the cuts creates inflation labor jobs suck inflation high defect out control getting worse banks broke about collapse More tech lay offs coming.
So I see after election after xmas 2025 or after election a major a major CRASH in tech and market I mean Major shits going to hit fan wont happen during election guys listen to charts banks are BROKE. For know riding the train up. Also the cut PLAY PLAY GLD gold higher dollar crashes. So Bull its about over enjoy 2024 last attempt 600
Opening (IRA): USO Oct 18th 64 Covered Call... for a 62.48 debit.
Comments: Adding a smidge to my position here at better break evens than what I currently have on. Selling the -75 delta (ish) against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, with the built in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 62.48
Max Profit: 1.52
ROC at Max: 2.43%
50% Max: .76
ROC at 50% Max: 1.21%
S&P 500 still bullishThe Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates tomorrow. The S&P 500 has already priced in the rate cut. The price action finished an elongated Wave 3 which usually results in a short Wave 5. However, the S&P 500 is expected to remain bullish well into October. The SPY will perhaps reach a high of 590-600
Bearish Butterfly on QQQPosting to track if this plays out like my SPY Crab pattern did. There are trendlines converging as well and its the 1.236 of that last down move. Rule of 3. I don't believe in coincidences.
Notice Anything In Correlation Of Elections And Oil?If a Democrat takes office, we are going to see oil continue on its way up. Elliott Wave is guiding the way. I called this out a while ago, and if you have bought since then, you have a better average cost than me.
I am sure everyone will be tuning in to the election. No one knows who will win.
Red Vertical Lines: Republican Wins
Blue Vertical Lines: Democrat Wins
Bitcoin Short GartleyThe inverse Bitcoin ETF for short side trades seems to be forming a bearish gartley pattern.
In this pattern, we would see a move upward, before a correction back down.
For me, this could be a signal of a coming 20% drop on BTC before initiating the bull rally.
The SPY hunt is back on. the last few days have created a level i will use to short from 559.5 Will not bite hard, just fire one shot. Then look for valid entries.
This does not mean i fire as it crosses the line it means i now have a confirmed down bias and will look for entry. Small feeler positions maybe taken anyplace as long that bias remains.
A+ Trade Set ups All From Respecting Simple Levels! We identify high-quality trade opportunities by focusing on key support and resistance levels. By respecting these fundamental price points, traders can enhance their decision-making process. Support levels act as a floor where buying interest tends to emerge, while resistance levels serve as a ceiling where selling pressure usually mounts. Recognizing and adhering to these simple levels helps traders pinpoint entry and exit points more effectively, increasing the probability of successful trades and improving overall trading performance.
AMEX:SPY
XOP where is it headed?I'xe held XOP several years. It's a mid-sized oil and gas company, The daily chart looks as if it's at a critical point judging from the DMI/ADX calculation line. We'll see if XOP can stay above 132 today. The world crises becomes more critical each day if anyone looks under the MSM coverage.
I set the VWAP price projections that all point higher and the volume is increasing now, too.
This morning I listened to the Mav of Wall Street mention that 25-50 bp interest rate deduction could create a short cover rally in oil stocks. It looks to be probable in the day chart here.
Anyone can see that from my chart that I'm not a profressionl trader; I simply enjoy challenging my mind and staying involved in geopolitics, etc. The financial market is inclusive of much that interests me in this crazy world. Good luck to all.
I use the indicators used in this chart to guide my decisions using the daily, weekly, and monthly charts whenever all three are pointing bullish. I wonder where oil and gas are headed long term since ENERGY has become a political football IMO.
The best dividend yield ETFThere are new ETFs flooding the market like
YMAX (tidal group)
QDTE ( roundhill investments)
which provide very attractive dividend yield 4-5 % a month
The biggest drawback is these ETFs lose value over time .
The biggest question while investing is how do get an attractive mix of yield + value .
Right way to compare them is compare the returns against the index .
So far , QDTE gives better performance against the index (QQQ) in terms of value of the ETF although yields are lower than YMAX .
Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 3rd WK SEP 2024Expired SPY Weekly outlook. 3rd WK SEP 2024
> BULLISH 📈 HIT
Prior Week Closed Price: 561.96
This Week Target Price: 564
Strike Price: 565.97 on SEP 17, 2024
Upper Range: 587
Lower Range: 541
SQQQ TUE:WED 18th liquid clear You can see the liquid it’s after. I’m not expecting a rate cut either tomorrow by any means. Inflation will continue higher along with the market.
QQQ is gonna be an interesting trade this weekQQQ has already been volatile as it is , but with the FED announcement coming tomorrow it should allow for a great trade or two. It looks as though its direction will swing almost entirely on the rate cut amount. It wouldn't shock me that a 50 point rate cut might shoot the QQQ past 484 ish and maybe even 490 in the next week, where as a 25 point cut might drop it back down to upper 450's. I think a 25 point cut will ultimately be more profitable with a nice sell off followed by a large green few days to recorrect.
