VXX shortThe opportunity is back! VIX is $27+, and it is up 50%, good time to short AMEX:VXX In @ $59.14 Shortby qyu001111
After a historic bond bear market...Bonds are breaking out of a big base on volume. We had 5 waves down to the October 23 low, now forming a breakout of an inverse head & shoulders base. Now that people have capitulated on hard landing that was popular consensus during 22 and early 23 (contrary indicator) and the consensus is soft landing and AI is going to save us all, is a recession now back on the table?by RobAllenS7
October 23, 2023We had seen this setup before the great surge of October 23, 2023, coinciding with data indicating that the Fed’s plan to curb inflation might be working. In September, we would then expect a rate cut. Technically speaking, we have a FlagLongby AllAboutMoney110
The BTC Critical ZoneBitcoin has been recently struggling after breaking through several crucial support zones. There is a single make it / break it zone I will be watching on the related BITX ETF which results in the overall CC golden pocket from the low of the move to the high pivot. A rejection here may increase probabilities of a further downside drop. A reclaim of the level would give me further confidence on a long trade higher. Lets see how it plays out.by afurs1Updated 3
Opened (IRA): TLT September 20th 89 Monied Covered Calls... for an 87.83/contract debit. Comments: Parking some cap in TLT while I go about "summer things." Selling the -75 call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta long put while having built-in short call defense. Metrics: Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 87.83/contract Max Profit: 1.07/contract (ex. divvies); 1.38/contract (with divvies) ROC at Max: 1.22% (ex. divvies)/1.57% (with divvies) 50% Max: .53/contract (ex. divvies) ROC at Max: .61% (ex. divvies); .96% (with divvies) These metrics assume that I'm only able to grab one divvy (i.e., July). It's possible that I'm able to grab July and August or July, August, and September, which will naturally increase the ROC %-age, but will generally money/take/run at 50% max after at least the July divvy drops. And ... you never know ... It's also possible that TLT might not cooperate and move back toward my short call strike and voila, I've got a poo pile on my hands.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 4
08/02 SPY ATR Levels and RangeThere are my lines for the day, yesterday totally blew the levels out of the water, the ATR on the SPY is holding steady, but high due to the downside drips and falls we have been getting. Papa Powell has taken all need for us to go any higher off the table until mid August, my opinion. So anything that happens today in the way of upside could be associated to a new month, new positions being opened and that we are on FAFO Friday with the 0DTE Degen option buyers.... I suspect we are not out of the bleeding yet. Fear&Greed is lower at a 33 midway to falling into Extreme fear. The Geo political and domestic world is on fire, Trump cant keep himself from saying stupid comments and Harris still hasnt gotten her footing yet (my opinion) For SCALP I am looking for quick moves through the SPOP to SR1 maybe see SR2 and breach into the STANDARD ranges at open and then quickly recced past the lower ranges past SBREAK into the S1 and S2 of the STANDARD levels. SR2 536.90 SR1 536.16 SPOP 535.43 LAST PRICE 534.69 SBREAK 533.95 SS1 533.22 SS2 532.48 R2 542.05 R1 539.22 POP 537.52 BREAK 531.89 S1 529.65 S2 528.16 by TuskenDayTrade0
RETROGRADE SPY 8.2 BEAR MONTH Aug / Could be Bull day but definitely BEAR MONTH. You will see I’ve shown what it needs to cross to become bullish. Pre mkt it was clearing a MONTHLY single print zone if it falls below that purple zone again it’s short to 520 zone. Mercury retrograde starts Sunday 4th so choose your trades cautiously and make trade plans days in advance so the retrograde doesn’t fog up your approach. Shortby L_UP_2472
Buy the dip dont trip BITXI see a short squeze a brewing! This is what they wanted 10 year down 3%!!!!!!!Longby CurrencyCapital0
$DIA Trading Range for Friday, August 2ndIn premarket right now, the Dow is at the bottom of the implied move that we set up last weekend, just above 398. We gapped below the up gap from Thursday of last week going into Friday, creating an island top. We gapped down underneath the one-hour 200 moving average, all the way to the bottom of the implied move. The last few times we saw a gap completely to the bottom of the implied move, the momentum followed through in that direction, as observed in SPY and QQQ. Here, however, we are at the bottom of the implied move for the week. It will be interesting to see if we can swing back up and at least get into the gap that has supported us all week. by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading2
$TLT: $92-100 before $85-$75I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move. However, after July, things don't look great for bonds, I think we'll see a new low in bonds and a new high in rates that will catch many people off guard. I think we reject somewhere in the $92-100 level and then start our next move down to new lows somewhere in the $85-75 range between August and October. Let's see how it plays out.by benjihyamUpdated 494924
SPY - Another Leg DownCould be just a little correction in this larger leg down. A 1 to 1 relationship between the expected wave and the first shows that SPY would find support around 523. Shortby AssetDesignUpdated 4
$IWM Daily Trading Range for Friday August 2ndIWM took a beatdown yesterday and again today in premarket. It is just a little after 8:30 AM this morning, and IWM is down about 3.5%. It is now underneath the two gaps that we saw above the previous long-time resistance at 211. It will be interesting to see if that 211 level remains as resistance, or if we can get back above it and try again to fill those gaps from underneath. by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-2 : Breakaway In Carryover ModeAs we have all experienced over the past 6+ days - outside news events can (and often do) disrupt my SPY Cycle Patterns. I've talked about the Kamala-Crush event (just 10+ days ago) that disrupted market trends after Biden stepped down from running for POTUS in 2024. I've talked about how capital would shift away from risks because of the sudden shift in expectations. I've talked about how this shifting capital would likely benefit the US market and what I call (major global economies) - where capital may rush into areas considered safer than most of the rest of the globe. Then, we saw a bloody attack on Israeli children turn the world upside down with the threat of an Israel/Iran conflict. We are now seeing Japan really become an issue with the BOJ attempting to manage risk factors related to their economy. In my opinion, the past 10+ days have been a series of minor crisis events (some a bit more major than minor) that have played out to disrupt the US/Global markets with huge volatility. We don't normally see 2.5 to 5.5% price swings - EVER. These types of price swings are MASSIVE. We are living through a disruption that may go down in history related to a global shift in expectations. But, at the same time, we've only seen the US markets fall 3.5% from the recent highs. Certainly not a CRASH event (yet). Honestly, I don't expect my SPY Cycle Pattern to play out very well today. I believe these outside factors are really driving price action and I've clearly tried to highlight that in this video. If & when the markets settle and move back into more normal types of price trending (away from outside factors driving price trend) - the SPY Cycle Patterns will likely fall back into a better predictive mode. As I stated, the SPY Cycle Patterns are not 100% accurate all the time. The past 10-15+ days have been very unusual (to say the least). We've seen a series of events that are really unprecedented (starting with the Kamale-Crush). Buckle up. Today could be a very interesting day if support holds. We may see the SPY attempt to rally back above $552-554 at some point. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #goldLong21:34by BradMatheny111
$QQQM a troubling pattern forming in the weekly chartNASDAQ:QQQM has generated large profits since December 2022 with the market clearly being in an uptrend. It is normal and expected that strong uptrends will follow with periods of sell-off where investors start closing their long positions to gather their profits. However, when analysing the market at the higher timeframes it becomes apparent that as price moves into higher-highs, the momentum waves measured through Elliott's wave theory become smaller. Could this type of divergence indicate a weakening of the previously established bullish trend or is it simply summer sales with a premise of larger gains after this sell-off is over? Taking into account the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East is reaching near a culminating point, I am moving cautiously ahead, expecting a serious season of consolidation before any strong move in the upwards or downwards direction. PS: I'm not a financial advisor, simply expressing my thoughts in an open format in hopes that others might have additional insights to include or criticise so that we may all be able to make better informed decisions by sharing our experiences.by chriskokal10
QQQ beginning of bear market Looking at QQQ starting from the dip of the corona, we had 5 touches on the bottom end of a very clear trend line. the 6th touch of the bottom trend line started the 2022 bear market when it broke below the support. I think the same might happen now. We are 10% off the highs, with 3 touches on the trend line support. If we close below the marked trend line we are going to test the 2021 highs. If QQQ bounces off the support, we will see it go to 550 as indicated by the fibonacci retracement. Anyway one more very cool detail about this bull run is that from the lows of the corona to the top of 2021 the QQQ went up exactly 241 points, which is also the exact amount it went up from the bottom of 2022 to the top we saw at the beginning of July. Watch this key level closely. If we break below the support trend line, this is going to be an actual bear marketby itay15421
$SPY August 2, 2024AMEX:SPY August 2, 2024 15 Minutes AMEX:SPY was not able to hold 554 555 levels. So, it gave a chance to said earlier it closed below 21 moving averages. For the day taking the fall 554.86 to 539.43 then 546-548 will be a good level to short. So, holding 541 -542 today I will try for a sell on rise. On other side if close below 539 as said earlier I will aim first for 536 levels which is at the moment 200 average in 180-minute timeframe.Shortby RiderTrader0
I spy $600Hi everyone - I wanted to make a quick post with my thoughts on the next moves for AMEX:SPY using Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci Price/Time levels. I’m on my phone so I apologize if the chart screenshot looks cluttered. AMEX:SPY is currently in a Primary W5 that should conclude in August. Yesterday we saw a spike after CPI came in cooler than expected, which completed the Minor W5/Intermediate W3 at $542.46. The market also received disappointing news that the fed is only planning on one rate cut this year. This type of news bolsters the argument that we are entering an Intermediate W4. I do not think this wave will last long and it could be choppy since Intermediate W2 saw a sharp move down after the extended W1. I will not go short on this trade and will wait to go long near the bottom of the channel ($530) around June 24th. As you can see on the volume profile, there is significant buying pressure at this level which will propel us into Intermediate W5. The fifth wave will need to reach the Primary 1.618 price level and Primary 1.618 fib time marker. These levels cross on August 6th at $594. I think there will be psychological pressure to hit $600 since we’ll be in a PW5/IW5/MW5 wave. From there, I predict we enter a bear market that could also carry a negative news catalyst. If the bear market is primarily technical without fundamental support, I predict the market will pick back up next year. Longby ap769Updated 9918
$QQQ Trading range for Friday, August 2nd - Aug 5thWe have a pretty big trading range for the next two days. The implied move in QQQ is between 450 and 468 on Friday’s contract, and then on Monday’s contract, it is between 448 and 447—so about 2.36% in either direction. We have seen the four-hour 200 moving average as support since last Thursday. We saw a bounce at that level this Tuesday and then again today, this Thursday. The momentum on that is still moving up. Above us, we have the 35 EMA. Outside of the trading range, we have quite a wall of resistance. We hit that wall today and got a super sharp rejection down. The 50-day moving average was there as well. We hit that 50-day moving average and dropped straight down to the four-hour 200 moving average. So, a big drop today and clear resistance at the 50-day moving average, clear support at the four-hour 200 moving average. Those are just some targets to look for tomorrow. Good luck tomorrow, guys!by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading3
$SPY Trading Range for Friday, August 2ndll right, so tomorrow’s implied move is really big. It is $6.87 in each direction, so the implied move is between 536 and 551. The implied move on Monday’s contract is between 534 and 553. The 50-day moving average is cutting right across the trading ranges for the next two days, and we have been shopping violently around that level. Above the trading range, we have the 30-minute two moving average and the one-hour two moving average. Those are both pointing down, and actually, the one-hour two moving average is pretty flat. Then we have the four-hour two moving average underneath our trading range and right towards the bottom of the implied move for tomorrow. We do have the remainder of that gap from June. That was June when we also had CPI and PPI right around that time as well. That gap could act as support if we drop down to it tomorrow, as it has held us up for the past two weeks.by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading2
QQQ Put & Call case for 8/1/24QQQ along with the rest of big tech has/is looking weak. This has been going on the the last month at least. Weakness to all of these levels. I am trying to stay neutral , but the price action & volume delta/CVD doesn't lie.Shortby interestingoak320111
Possible path for TLT over the next weekFed meeting next week, along with jobs numbers this thursday. Could Powell launch a surprise rate cut due to the CrowdStrike IT hack? Powell has said that his number one concern that keeps him up at night is Cyberby GoodTextureUpdated 334
SPY BUY for bounce to $554Spy held cloud support at $536 and is trading above Fib .236 we have overhead resistance at $548 I expect it to break through and test $551 ad high as $554Longby ShortSeller76Updated 2