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Ishares 20+ Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $90sIshares 20+ Treasury Bond NASDAQ:TLT are particularly sensitive to interest rates: the price moves up when they are lowered and down when they rise. Locally, I'm witnessing banks lower their interest rates for CDs and shorten the duration for those with high-yielding returns. The general political rhetoric, especially due to the election cycle, is a push for the Federal Reserve to drop them. Now, despite the possible negative economic implications of lowering interest rates too soon if inflation is high, there is a good probability they may be lowered (even slightly) in 2024... perhaps September? This analysis isn't to time the bottom perfectly, though. Instead, it's a probability assessment. Personally, TLT in the low $90s is in a long-term "buy-zone". Target #1 = $104 Target #2 = $122 Target #3 = $170+ (very long-term view / economic crash... let's hope not, though)
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by WorthlessViews
iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $80sFor the patient, one of the "safest" investments is in long-term treasury bonds (specifically NASDAQ:TLT ). For those who may not understand why, bond prices move inversely to yields. If interest rates drop (which the Federal Reserve has stated is going to happen this year), NASDAQ:TLT will rise. If interest rates rise (like what happened in early 2022), NASDAQ:TLT will fall. But all information from the Federal Reserve points to interest rate cuts starting this year *or* in the near future. As of April 1st, 2025, the dividend yield for NASDAQ:TLT is 4.52%. That interest rate beats the vast majority of savings accounts right now. I don't think we will see NASDAQ:TLT prices in the $80's longer than a year or two. A contrarian may argue "inflation is rising!", but the data continue to point to it actually stabilizing. Yes, prices are higher compared to 4-5 years ago for just about everything... but the higher prices are "stable". Tariffs may put a slight wrinkle in this stability in the near-term, but I think the economy is already slowing and the Federal Reserve will be pressured to start dropping interest rates sooner than later. I believe a global economic bust is inevitable - but no one knows when. Anyone who says they can time it is a charlatan. If/when a global economic bust occurs, the Federal Reserve will drop interest rates (like what happened in 2020) to get the economy juiced up again. NASDAQ:TLT will double in price or go further. My general point is I *believe* NASDAQ:TLT is nearing a low and any future declines (especially below $80) are personal opportunities for buy-and-hold. It's a solid hedge with a good dividend. Options don't give you that and timing events is a guessing game for every retail trader. So, as someone who tries to think beyond the "now", I am gathering shares, enjoying the dividend, and not touching them until a global economic bust occurs. Currently holding positions at $85, $86, $87, and $90. Targets: 2027: $100.00 2028: $105.00 2029: $110.00 2030: $115.00 Bust (unknown timing): $170+
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by WorthlessViews
04/07 GEX + Historic VIX Highs: Extreme Volatility with OptionsWow, where to begin? We’ve just come through a week that even the most thorough analysts found surprising. Last Friday’s brutal sell-off triggered such a massive margin call rally that even the hedge funds were forced to exit gold—which is usually considered a safe haven—on Friday. The VIX is at a historic high — no joke. We last saw levels like this during the 2008 crisis and the COVID panic in 2020. 📌 High IV = High Theta When implied volatility (IV) is high, theta (the time decay of options) is also high. This means that maintaining long put protection becomes extremely expensive. From a broker’s hedging perspective, if they are short expensive put options, they can gradually buy back their futures positions over time (all else being equal). As IV rises, this buyback becomes increasingly attractive for them. Let’s look at our weekly SPY analysis using GEX Profile (Gamma Exposure) indicator first: It’s definitely not a cheerful chart! * Below 520: We have strikes dominated by puts. The largest negative GEX “profit-taking zone” sits at 490. If price reaches that level and the support fails (the previous major bottom from April 2024), we could move even further down into a very wide negative squeeze zone, possibly as far as 445. * HVL zone: 520–546: A choppy area around the gamma flip. * Above 546: This would signal a +10-15% rally, putting us in a positive gamma zone. However, such a scenario currently seems unlikely—at least based on the gamma levels we see right now. I won’t sugarcoat it: we’re at levels now where the market could easily move 10% in either direction. So, in my view, forget about conservative option strategies with flat delta exposure. 🤔 What Can We Do? Important: This analysis reflects my personal opinion only. It’s primarily for those looking to speculate in this highly uncertain environment. If you’re holding put options strictly as a hedge, then this may not be directly relevant to you. In these conditions, the number one rule is to survive—hedges are meant to protect assets or guard against margin calls, not to make profit. Currently, IV (implied volatility) and VIX are at historic highs. For them to stay this elevated, we’d need new negative headlines and further major market drops. While that could certainly happen, statistically it becomes less and less likely as time goes on. Buying Put Options …. no way? First off, there are plenty of challenges if you plan to buy put options right now—most of all their cost. Put options are nearly twice as expensive as calls in many cases. Does this mean I recommend selling puts or put spreads? I’m not saying you shouldn’t, but be aware: this isn’t for the faint-hearted or for beginners (the risk is high!). It might be worth exploring butterfly or vertical debit spread strategies, as our goal remains the same as always: to maximize the risk–reward ratio. 🐂 If You’re Bullish This might sound like a ninja move, but one possibility is to buy call butterfly spreads. Yes, the market could still drop—that’s absolutely possible. But statistically, it’s becoming less likely that we’ll see another huge leg down without some form of rebound. - Slight Move Up: In the event of a mild rise, call spreads and call butterfly strategies can significantly outperform a simple long call. The short legs in a spread/fly offset high theta costs and mitigate the negative effects of falling IV. - Even with a +10% Move: A long call is often still not the best choice in this environment—even if the option goes deep in the money. Where Call Spread/Butterfly Can Fail If stocks rally 15–20% or more and IV also increases (which would be unprecedented in just a few days). If the market crashes and VIX spikes above 100 (IV would skyrocket, raising the cost of all options further). Cheap Bullish Calendar Spread In a situation like this, even a cheap calendar spread can be a good play — the risk is relatively low, especially if managed well and the breakeven range is wide. Of course, if implied volatility drops, the spread could narrow, but that would likely come with a market rally, which theta can help capitalize on. 🐻 If You’re Bearish I strongly advise against buying single-leg puts, even on a 0DTE (zero-days-to-expiration) basis. If you’re convinced the market will keep dropping, I’d only consider debit spreads, aiming for a solid risk–reward ratio (in my case, I look for at least 1:2 risk-to-reward). ⚖️ If You Want to Stay Neutral / Omni bullish If you prefer not to pick a direction, you could try to capitalize on historically high IV with a May-expiration Iron Condor. This is the classic TastyTrade approach, with the caveat that you must monitor GEX levels and IV daily and adjust the far side as needed. Risk Management: If the spot price threatens one of your short strikes, you probably shouldn’t wait around in this volatile environment. It’s usually better to close the position and take a small loss than to hope for a reversal—hoping can become very expensive! Conclusion The market is extremely volatile, and expensive options mean traditional strategies may not work as well as they usually do. Stay cautious, manage risk meticulously, and don’t be afraid to close out losing trades quickly. As always, surviving to trade another day is the most important rule.
AMEX:SPY
by TanukiTrade
5
Learning The Excess Phase Peak Pattern : How To Identify/Use ItThis new tutorial video is for all the new followers I have on TradingView who don't understand the Excess Phase Peak pattern (EPP) yet. I received a question from a new follower yesterday about the EPP patterns. He/She could not understand what they were or how to use/identify them. This video should help you understand what the EPP patterns are, how to identify them, how to trade with them, and how to identify/use proper expectations with them. I hope this video is informative and clear. Remember, price only does two things... FLAG or TREND - NOTHING ELSE And the EPP pattern is the CORE STRUCTURE of price that happens on all charts, all intervals, and all the time. The second pattern, the Cradle pattern, is part of the EPP pattern, but it acts as another price construct related to how to identify opportunities in price action. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
NASDAQ:QQQEducation
by BradMatheny
DUST in Buy ZoneMy trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell when at three of these events happen: * Price tags the top or bottom of parallel channel zones * Money flow spikes beyond it's Bollinger Bands * Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at near oversold overbought level * Price at Fibonacci levels So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price in buying zone at bottom of channels Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level Money flow momentum is spiked negative and under at bottom of Bollinger Band Price near Fibonacci level Entry at $29.15 Target is upper channel around $36
AMEX:DUSTLong
by chancethepug
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-11 : Break-Away in CarryoverToday's Break-away pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move (break) away from yesterday's Body range. I believe this trend, after the recent Ultimate Low in price, will be to the upside. I know a lot of people are asking, "why do you think the markets are going to rally now - after you suggested the markets would trend downward?" Things have changed now that we have a 90-day pause in the tariff wars. Yes, China is still an issue - but the rest of the world seems to have a pause on the tariff wars as negotiations continue. I believe the removal of the tariff pressure on the markets will result in a moderate upward trend as we move into Q1:2025 earnings season. Still, I don't believe we will see new ATHs anytime soon. But I do believe the 580+ level on the SPY is a potential high price level that can be reached before the end of April 2025. Gold and Silver are moving into a GAP trend move today. I believe the GAP will be to the upside and I believe Gold and Silver will continue to rally. Silver is really low in terms of comparison to Gold. Silver could make a very big move to the upside over the next 30+ days. BTCUSD is still consolidating into the narrow range I suggested would happen before the bigger breakdown event near the end of April (into early May). Everything is playing out just as I expected. The big change is the removal of the tariffs for 75+ nations (for now). That will give the markets some room to the upside and we need to understand how price structure is playing out into an A-B-C wave structure. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by BradMatheny
22
SPY Analysis: Navigating Tariff-Induced VolatilityContinuing from my last update, market volatility remains high due to Trump's unpredictable policy decisions. After initially folding and offering economic relief, Trump pivoted sharply with a sudden 145% tariff announcement. Today, China countered strongly with a 125% tariff. These escalating tariff exchanges continue to create significant uncertainty and market fluctuations, highlighting the critical need for careful analysis and precise trade management. Technical Breakdown (4-Hour Chart) Current Price Zone: Around $528.45 Key Resistance Levels: - Immediate Resistance: $536.50 (L.Vol ST 1b) - Critical Resistance: $549.33 - $549.60 (L.Vol ST 2b) - Major Resistance Zone (Liberation Day): Approximately $562.16 Support Levels: - Initial Support: $523.67 (Best Price Short) - Secondary Support: $510.84 (L.Vol ST 1a) - Important Lower Support: $498.01 (L.Vol ST 2a) - Strong Support Level (Trump Folded area): ~$485.18 Trading Scenarios Bullish Scenario (Potential Tariff Tension Relief): - Entry Trigger: Confirmed breakout and sustained hold above resistance at $536.50. Profit Targets: - Target 1: $549.33 (next strong resistance level) - Target 2: $562.16 (major resistance) - Stop Loss: Below immediate support at $523.67, carefully managing downside risk. Bearish Scenario (Ongoing Tariff Escalation or Increased Market Fear): Entry Trigger: Inability to reclaim $536.50, or a decisive breakdown below support at $523.67. Profit Targets: - Target 1: $510.84 (nearest significant support) - Target 2: $498.01 (secondary critical support) - Target 3: $485.18 (robust support area) - Stop Loss: Above resistance at $536.50 to protect against potential reversals. Thought Process & Final Thoughts The SPY currently trades within clearly defined resistance and support bands, heavily influenced by unpredictable tariff-driven headlines. Trump's volatile policy shifts and China's assertive retaliations amplify short-term market risks. Maintain flexible trading strategies, adhere strictly to established levels, and practice disciplined risk management. Continuous monitoring and swift response to evolving market sentiment will be essential for navigating this challenging environment effectively.
AMEX:SPY
by HispanicHedge
1
"Disbelief Rally" back to 52 week HighsPrior plunges below this custom weekly Keltner channel have a good track record of highlighting buying opportunities. In simile terms.. when markets plunge too much and too fast, a great accumulation occurs with wild oscillations. After the accumulation will come a "disbelief rally" where the market will continue to rip higher in a concave down curve to the previous 52 week high leaving market participants in disbelief that we didn't retest the plunge levels again. Each dip in this "disbelief rally" becomes a great opportunity for long-style trades.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Audacity618
7
Major Reversal Ahead for UVXY?We’ve identified a Head & Shoulders pattern, aligning with our Elliott Wave count showing a completed 5-wave move up ✅ This strongly suggests we’re due for an ABC correction to the downside 🔻 🟡 Yellow boxes mark our high-probability targets. This bearish view is also supported by our broader outlook: A bullish move is expected in the U.S. market, which naturally points to UVXY moving lower. Everything lines up — let’s see how it unfolds 👀
CBOE:UVXY
by VitalDirection
What on Earth Is a Circuit Breaker?!Every couple of days since April 2nd, everybody's been talking about a stock market halt all day. You're left there trying to Google it so you're not the only person in the group chat who doesn't know what's going on. But actually, nobody else in your group chat knows what's going on either. They're low-key Googling it under the desk. You don't have to know everything in the market to be a "seasoned" trader. What does get disappointing is when people guess instead of providing facts or a direct link to an article about market halts. So, this is your quick-but-detailed-read article/ guide to market halts and circuit breakers. Send it to your friends in that group chat. Why today's dump happened in the first place? More on that later. It's a long story. 🥹 What is a circuit breaker? It's simple: a circuit breaker is a 15 minute OR whole-day market-wide HALT when the market reaches 1 of 3 decline levels. It all depends on the level, how fast the decline is, and potentially other factors that we are not aware of. Keep in mind this is not something we have to deal with often. When does it happen? And what stock does it track? Good question. The halt is triggered following declines in the S&P 500 only . That is: AMEX:SPY SP:SPX $CME_MINI:ES1!. If these level 1 & 2 are reached before 3:25 PM EDT , there is a 15 minute market-wide trading halt. Meaning you cannot enter or exit positions. If level 3 is reached at any time in the day, the entire day's trading will come to an end. Level 1: -7.00% | 15 minute halt Level 2: -13.00% | 15 minute halt Level 3: -20.00% | Entire day halt So when the S&P 500 index reaches -6.98%, be sure a halt is coming very soon at -7.00%. Sure, like today, "they" might pump it and use that as support and prevent a halt (we got very close to -6.35% on CME_MINI:ES1! if I'm not mistaken). But it's good to be vigilant and make sure you're not in any daytrades. Does CME_MINI:NQ1! NASDAQ:QQQ CBOT_MINI:YM1! trigger the halt also? No. The halt is only triggered by the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite famously moves much more than S&P 500, so a 7% drop in S&P is way more dramatic than a 7% drop in Nasdaq and it's highly likely at -7% in S&P that Nasdaq would be at -8% or -9%. Although, both are undoubtedly decimating for any long positions. Why does this rule exist? This was introduced after Black Monday of 1987 where the market was free falling ( DJ:DJI dropped 22.6%) with no safety stops in place to prevent a market-wide disaster. This prevents further panic selling and massive stop loss raids, and also gives institutional traders time to zoom out and see the bigger picture. How close did we get recently? Today we got within 0.7% of getting a 15 minute halt. See for yourself: And the intraday 15 minute chart: FUN FACT: What if I shorted the top on CME_MINI:ES1! ? Assuming your time machine goes back 24 hours (some time machines only go back 10 years minimum), you'd have booked 1500 ticks at $12.50 per tick. So around $19k per contract. You know that's not too bad. It's almost a Toyota Camry per contract. Do better! 😆 How do I trade this? Do you really have to? Please do not FOMO & catch a falling knife. Trade light. The market is open for the rest of the year. Trade with a stop loss, and remember, if you FOMO'd and bought at -3% just because it's down 3%, you'd have gotten decimated. Use the charts not the % on your screen. 🔥 Hit the follow button for free educational content because knowledge is free. KD out.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by kingdips
1
Self-Sacrifice That Seems Like Self-Destruction… But Toward What🔻 SPY down 21% | IWM down 29% from ATHs as of April 7, 2025. After months of tracking the Trump tariff narrative and comparing it with the 2018–2019 playbook, we're now living the sequel. But this time, it's happening on steroids, faster and with more chaos. 🧠 Context: Why This Isn’t Just Another Correction It’s not purely about macroeconomic numbers or earnings calls anymore. The market's volatility is now emotionally and politically driven — centered around one dominant voice: Donald Trump. He’s not just reacting to the market — he’s orchestrating the market. And every tweet or announcement can change the direction of the S&P in real time. 🔁 2018–2019 vs. 2025: Chart Overlay Insights 📉 In 2018, the first round of tariffs triggered a -20% drop in SPY — followed by a powerful reversal. 📉 In 2025, the same pattern repeats — another ~-21% drop from highs. SPY printed a nearly identical two-bottom structure This sharpens my conviction that we may have already bottomed — barring another external macro event outside the tariff story. 🧩 The Tweet Timeline Initial Setup Tweet: "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT" A tweet that initially seemed random, but now clearly was a setup. The Main Policy Drop: On the same day, hours later, Trump officially dropped the real bomb: a massive 125% tariff hike on China, coupled with a 90-day relief for all other nations. 📈 The market exploded: SPY ended the day +10.5% — one of the biggest intraday reversals in recent history. Fake Tweet Incident: Just a few days prior, a fake “90-day pause” tweet circulated, reportedly backed by a journalist referencing a major bank. It turned out to be false — but it caused a sharp 20-minute rally, followed by a dump when it was denied. 🪙 That wasn’t the “Golden Tweet.” But it was what I call a Silver Tweet — a smaller catalyst that injected brief optimism. 👉 Silver Tweets bring air back into a suffocating market. But the real bounce… needs a Golden Tweet. 🧨 And Then the Wildcard: Despite the massive selloff, the 10-year yield went up, not down — likely the result of a powerful player dumping bonds to counter Trump’s objective of yield suppression. But that’s not the only possible force at play: Hedge funds are now facing margin calls. This has triggered forced liquidations across equities, bonds, and even certain safe-haven positions. That’s why we’re seeing the unusual combination of rising yields and rising gold — while broader equity markets were still heading aggressively lower. This suggests: A hidden battle of titans Broad rebalancing under pressure And that Trump may no longer be fully in control of the chaos he set in motion. 🔭 Trade Zones 📌 IWM Entry: $179–185 Short-Term Target: $195–205 Mid-Term Target Target: $270–280 (or Retest ATH) Max Downside Estimate: -5 to -7% Stop-Loss: Weekly close below $171 📌 SPY Current Level: $517.99 Short-Term Target: $548–556 Mid-Term Target: Retest ATH ($612+) Max Further Downside Estimate: -3 to -5% from low Stop-Loss: Weekly close below $485 📌 Note: Volume on reversal was highest since Covid crash, signaling serious accumulation. 📉 What This Could Mean Trump’s pressure campaign is likely aimed at forcing the Fed to cut rates. The 90-day pause was meant to cool global reaction — while keeping pressure on China. However, if yields keep rising and inflation picks back up, the Fed might get stuck, causing even more market instability. This isn't just a tariff tantrum — it's a chess match with real capital on the line. 🔮 Final Word We're in the middle of the unraveling, and the market is still testing the gains made during the relief rally. But I’m more confident than ever in my thesis — unless another macro shock comes into play. 📉 We now have: 2 matching 20%+ drops (2018 + 2025) Matching double bottoms Trump-driven catalysts unfolding 📲 The markets will react more to Trump's feed than to Powell’s tone or CPI reports. That said, this isn't a guarantee. If Trump loses control of this chaos, or geopolitical escalation spills over — the downside isn't out of the question. The only certainty right now: The market is watching one man. #TrumpIndex #SPY #IWM #MacroNarrative #GoldenTweet #SilverTweet #MarketCycle #Fibonacci #Tariffs #TradingViewIdeas
AMEX:SPYLong
by Papi_Jammin
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-10 : FLAT-DOWN PatternToday's Flat-Down Pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will struggle to move away from yesterday's big open-close range. Normally, I would suggest the Flat-Down pattern will be a small, somewhat FLAT price move. But, after yesterday's big move, the Flat-Down pattern can really be anywhere within yesterday's Daily Body range. So, we could see very wild volatility today. That means we need to be prepared for general price consolidation (which suggests somewhat sideways price trending) and be prepared for some potential BIG price trends within that consolidation. These BIG price trends would be more like bursts of trending, while still staying somewhat consolidated overall. Watch today's video to learn how the Excess Phase Peak pattern is dominating the trend right now (in the Consolidation Phase). The same thing is happening in BTCUSD. BTCUSD has been in an EPP Consolidation phase for over 35+ days now. Gold and Silver are setting up a CRUSH pattern today. That could be a VERY BIG move higher (or downward). Given my analysis of Gold acting like a hedge (a proper hedge for global risk levels), I believe today's move will EXPLODE higher. Gold is already in an early-stage parabolic bullish price trend. When gold explodes above $3500, I believe it will quickly gain momentum towards the $5100 level. Right now, Gold is recovering from the Tariff news and about to explode upward (above $3200) if we see this CRUSH pattern play out well. Thank you again for all the great compliments. I'm just trying to share my knowledge and skills with all of you before I die. There is no need to carry all of this great information and technology to my grave. So, follow along, ask questions, learn, and PROFIT while I keep doing this. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
16