Trading idea - Entry point > 136/61.80%Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 136/61.80%
Chart time frame: D
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
ETF market
Opening (IRA): TLT June 20th 79 Short Put... for a 1.61 credit.
Comments: High IVR. Starting to ladder out here, selling the 25 delta put ... .
Since I'm interested in acquiring more shares at 85 or below, I may let this run to expiry or approaching worthless (e.g., .05) ... . Can't believe it breaks 84.50 (which would be correspondent with a 5% yield on the 10-year T note), but you never know in this environment.
$MAGS Repeating History? - Nasdaq Oscillator Flashes Caution📉 CBOE:MAGS (MAG 7 ETF) is showing striking similarities to its previous top, right before a 30% drop. Both price action and the Nasdaq Oscillator are echoing that same setup.
🔍 Key Observations:
Price has rallied into a confluence of resistance near the previous breakdown zone.
The Nasdaq Oscillator has returned to a historically high reading – the last time this happened, MAGS topped and dropped hard.
A similar structure could suggest a -30% move, targeting the $32–$33 range.
⚠️ Caution: We’re in a potential bull trap zone. Unless we break cleanly above the red trendline and consolidate, this rally may be short-lived.
🧠 Smart money may already be unloading into this strength.
SPY Tech Brkdown: Bullish Momentum Building into Key Resistance
SPY Technical Breakdown: Bullish Momentum Building into Key Resistance Zones
Analyzing the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) on the 4-hour timeframe. As of the latest candle, SPY trades at $547.37, up 0.15%, and is showing signs of sustained bullish momentum after a recent pullback. For swing and short-term traders, this setup could present a strategic opportunity.
🔍 Price Action and Volume Analysis
SPY has shown a textbook recovery from April lows, bouncing cleanly from support around the S2 pivot at $515.50. Volume is also increasing on up candles, indicating institutional buyers may be stepping in. The 4-hour chart structure suggests a healthy uptrend with higher highs and higher lows.
🎯 Key Fibonacci Pivots and Resistance Zones
This chart includes weekly Fibonacci pivots, providing clear areas to watch:
R1: $530.33
R2: $545.15
R3: $554.32
Currently, SPY is trading just above R2. If it breaks and holds above this level, the next target lies at R3, which could act as a resistance zone and potential area for profit-taking.
🧠 Indicator Insights: VWAP and Bollinger Band Strategy
The lower chart panel features a strategy combining VWAP and Bollinger Bands, labeled "BBofVWAP with entry at Pivot Point." It triggered a +40 signal recently near the VWAP-Pivot level, reinforcing the bullish thesis. The slight expansion in Bollinger Bands hints at rising volatility, possibly paving the way for a bigger move.
📈 Bullish Scenario
If SPY maintains strength above $545.15, we may see a continuation toward $554.32 (R3). A strong close above R3 could signal a bullish breakout with potential to test new highs.
🔻 Bearish Case to Watch
On the flip side, failure to hold above R2 and a breakdown below $530.33 could indicate a bull trap. In this scenario, $515.50 or even $506.34 (S3) could come back into play.
ORB Breakout PullbackWaiting for SPY to break my 15 min ORB on the 5 and/or 15 min time-frame then I'll enter on pullback if it holds, especially if it hold at the 9 EMA, Volume supports and the VIX is inline as well. If VIX up SPY down and vice versa. Also, will confirm on 30 min timeframe for more confirmation. Let's see. Patience is key.
SPY Trade Plan – April 25 Saw a triangle forming on the 5 and 15 min charts. My plan is to wait for the breakout at 549, then catch the pullback to 547. I wanted the 9 EMA to hold and a green candle to confirm before getting in.
I got my entry at 548.50, stop at 547, and my first take profit at 550, second at 552.
The whole point of this trade for me is to being patient. I didn’t want to chase. I wanted to follow my rules:
✅ Wait for pullback
✅ Respect the 9 EMA
✅ Confirmation candle
SPY/QQQ ES/NQ 25 De Abril 2025QQQ Pre-Market Analysis – April 25, 2025
General Context:
The chart integrates SpotGamma levels, option walls, and potential reaction zones. It's designed to anticipate long trade setups based on call/put walls and retracement zones.
🔑 Key Zones and Levels
Zone/Level Description
464 – 465 (Put/Call Walls) Strong support zone, ideal for potential long setups (Buy Zone).
467.35 – RB Bottom First key resistance zone or target if price bounces from support.
469.51 – RB Head Second target/resistance based on call wall and options positioning.
471.59 – 470 (Call Wall) Final upside target. Possible reversal zone or strong supply zone.
🧠 Trade Ideas (Long Bias)
Scenario 1 – Early Bounce:
Entry Zone: Between 464 – 465
Target 1: 467.35 (RB Bottom)
Target 2: 469.51 (RB Head)
Target 3: 471.59
Scenario 2 – Retest Before Breakout:
Price may retest the Put Wall (2) at 464 before pushing higher.
This gives another buying opportunity with confirmation from price action.
Scenario 3 – Mid-range Consolidation:
Watch the 467.35 level for a breakout/rejection.
Above 467.35 with volume → bullish continuation toward 470–471.
⚠️ Critical Notes
Vol Trigger @ 466: This is a pivot level. Holding above suggests bullish bias; below = caution.
Zero Gamma Level @ 466: Another critical inflection point—watch reactions here closely.
Opening (IRA): SPY June 20th 375 Short Put... for a 3.74 credit
Comments: High IVR/>21 IV. Starting to ladder out here, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
Will generally look to roll up at 50% max to the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit if >45 DTE remain in the expiry and IVR/IV remains sufficient to collect 1% of the strike price in credit at 16 delta or less.
Opening (IRA): SPY May 16th 385 Short Put... for a 4.04 credit.
Comments: High IVR, >21 IV. Sticking a little pickle in here, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit which is quite a bit out of the money at the 8 delta.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 380.96
Max Profit: 4.04
ROC at Max: 1.06%
50% Max: 2.02
ROC at 50% Max: .54%
Opening (IRA): TLT May 16th 84 Short Put... for a 1.59 credit.
Comments: High IVR; back in range of 52-week lows. Working both ends of the stick in 20 year+ paper with a covered call on one end of the stick, short puts on the other ... .
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 82.41/contract
Max Profit: 1.59
ROC at Max: 1.93%
50% Max: .80
ROC at 50% Max: .96%
Since I want to potentially pick up additional shares at a lower price, I will run this to expiry or approaching worthless (e.g., .05).
SPY - support & resistant areas for today April 25 2025These are Support and Resistance lines for today, April 25, 2025, and will not be valid for the next day. Mark these in your chart by clicking grab this below.
Yellow Lines: Heavily S/R areas, price action will start when closing in on these.
White Lines: Are SL, TP or Mid Level Support and Resistance Areas, these are traded if consolidation take place on them.
TRAP RALLY?AMEX:SPY trade, watching this pivot level for 2nd flag continuation into 560's or a break down to retest lows.
Overall trend is bearish, so until bulls show themselves, the continues voice that yells buy this dip, is nulled by the sense of, FOMO temptation. never plays out well.
No actual trade deals made, no actual announcements. just headlines and people retweeting post. Price>everything.
SHORT GDX or LONG DUST // Swing TradingAfter correction of Gold (GLD) day before yesterday.
A equity market open for a risk-on scenario, maybe cooldown the gold rally for a while.
Today GDX filled the gap of the yesterday decline stopin at $50 (yellow mark).
Target $44-$45. First level of Fibonacci.
Spy Road To $500 or $481📉 The Road Below $500? Here's the Case.
While bulls are still buying dips, several key signals suggest a deeper correction may be brewing — possibly below the critical $500 psychological support zone in the coming weeks.
Technical Breakdown
Rising Wedge Breakdown on the 4H and Daily charts has triggered.
Diverging RSI — lower highs on RSI while price pushed higher = bearish divergence.
MACD Bearish Crossover confirmed on both 1D and 4H = momentum shift.
Volume Analysis shows increased selling on red candles = institutional distribution.
SMA50 Breach likely — and SMA200 sits just under $500, a magnet if fear accelerates.
🧠 Market Sentiment
Put/Call Ratio has spiked to 1.20+, suggesting rising hedging activity.
CNN Fear & Greed Index is shifting toward Fear.
Social media chatter (Twitter/X & Reddit) has turned skeptical — fewer breakout calls, more risk-off talk.
📰 Macro Headlines Fuel the Case
Powell’s latest "higher for longer" interest rate remarks = bearish for growth names.
Earnings misses from key megacaps (GOOGL, AAPL) = cracks in the leaders.
Geopolitical tension in the Middle East and China trade fears = added volatility.
Key Levels to Watch:
$507–$510 = current distribution zone (supply).
$500 = major psychological & technical level.
$491 = unfilled liquidity gap (volume imbalance) — very likely magnet.
Final Thought:
This isn't fear — it's data-backed caution. Until we reclaim $510 with volume and conviction, a retest of $500 and possibly a sweep below is the more probable path.
Stay smart. Stay hedged. As Always Safe Trades I will guide the way.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 25, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📉 Procter & Gamble Cuts Outlook Amid Consumer Pullback: P&G shares declined after the company lowered its full-year earnings guidance, citing reduced consumer spending due to economic uncertainty and higher tariffs. CFO Andre Schulten noted significant consumer hesitation, linking it to volatility in mortgage rates and declining stock markets affecting retirement savings.
📊 Durable Goods Orders Surge, Core Spending Stagnant: March durable goods orders jumped 9.2%, driven by a spike in aircraft demand. However, core capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, rose only 0.1%, indicating cautious business investment amid ongoing tariff uncertainties.
🏠 Existing Home Sales Decline Sharply: Existing home sales fell 5.9% in March to an annual rate of 4.02 million units, reflecting affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, April 25:
🗣️ Fed Governor Neel Kashkari Speaks (5:00 PM ET):
Remarks may provide insights into the Federal Reserve's perspective on current economic conditions and monetary policy direction.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
GLDGold has extended slightly passed the 2.618 extension fib and then began to fall back down. It is too early to tell if price has finally topped or not. It is no coincidence though that it started moving lower as the market started moving higher. I believe that any drop in price for gold is only temporary. It will, IMO, begin to move higher again around the time this larger consolidation of the indices completes.
Should price start to move higher again, we will need to look towards the 2.786 & 3.0 for points of resistance. However, if a local top is in fact in place, we would then continue lower in an overlapping/choppy fashion. I will update as it warrants.