$SPY Short Term Bullish atm.. idea for BullsWell... seeing is we hit my target, I thought I might bless the Bulls with a little bit of Eye Candy.... This is what you want...
The Fib breakdown of the Golden Pocket above at the 1.61... we hit the retracement... and now back to the .78
We hold here and it can get bullish quick.
Bearish Path in Next post... otherwise we make a lower high and fall to $525 and fast.
ETF market
QQQ long term trend is down with short-term relief rallyI am guessing a bit more downside before we see a relief rally. The AI bubble is starting to unwind, and that falling knife is sharp. I am patiently waiting for some version of a short-term bottom. You can see in the chart that price is has several key support lines within near reach. I would expect testing and hopefully finding some support in the coming days. If it is like the COVID bubble unwind, then we could see a strong reverse rally out of this range. However, I think it is pretty clear QQQ is in correction with a convincing loss of the 200 day SMA.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 11, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇯🇵🤝 Japan-U.S. Trade Discussions 🤝: Japanese Trade Minister Yoji Muto is visiting Washington from March 9–11 to engage in discussions with U.S. officials. The talks aim to strengthen economic ties and address trade concerns, including potential exemptions for Japanese exports from proposed U.S. tariffs. These negotiations could influence sectors such as automotive and steel, impacting market dynamics.
🇨🇳📊 China's National People's Congress (NPC) Developments 📊: The 2025 National People's Congress is underway in Beijing from March 5–11. Key economic targets and policy directions set during the NPC may affect global markets, including the U.S., especially in areas related to trade, technology, and foreign investment.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, March 11:
📄 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET) 📄:This report provides data on job openings, hires, and separations, offering a comprehensive view of the labor market's dynamics.
Forecast: 7.71 million
Previous: 7.6 million
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 031025Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 549/61.80%
Chart time frame: D
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
Omnichart - Dividend pays - 2 - DSL,CCIF,JAAA,BUCK,TBIL,BNDJAAA has been the best stable performer. If you want to take risk and earn higher dividend then the right value for them is when their dividend adjusted performance meets JAAA's dividend adjusted performance. Till then stay in JAAA (Its the Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF), the other closer alternatives are BUCK and TBIL. JAAA and BUCK provide excess returns over risk free return of TBIL. JAAA seems to outperform BUCK.
For a long term investor who wants to come out of equities during market turning events on a long term basis (lets say monthly chart) the following strategy may be help grow your wealth/ earn income :
Transfer from equities or risky assets into JAAA (or BUCK/TBIL depending on your preference) and another turn on a long term basis like on a monthly chart slowly scale out of JAAA back into the risk assets of choice.
$SPY: Possible Bullish Reversal [LONG]Sentiment indicators and volume patterns all point to a local bottom forming on the 4H chart. These signals, along with supporting technical indicators, strongly suggest that $555 marks a local bottom and a reversal from the current lows can be expected.
Watch closely for confirmation as SPY potentially starts moving higher from here.
$SPY - We could see a bounce within this weekSince the uptrend began in November 2023, the AMEX:SPY has experienced a drawdown of approximately 9-10%, with 11% being the maximum drawdown.
Similarly, drawdowns have typically overshot below the 200-day moving average (200DMA) by an average of 3%.
By this measure, the worst-case scenario for this drawdown could see AMEX:SPY fall to the $544 to $542 range.
I think we could see a bounce within this week.👀
SP:SPX
NASDAQ: Correction or Crash?!If this Monthly Chart for March holds then the NASDAQ:QQQ is COOKED!
Next Level: $450
Crash level: $370-$400 🥶
- Breaking out of WCB Trend
- Volume is WAY less than 202 Market Crash (Can get worse)
- Breaking out of Bullish Channel
- Topping tail wicks
Not financial advice
Market Crash? No: Sector Rotation!The news is catching up (two weeks late) to the stock market heading into bear territory but that is NOT the whole picture! Investors need to know that there are winners out there in quality stocks as the risky YOLO plays (tech, crypto) are losing. This specific rotation perfectly fits the model of the stock market rolling over into bearish territory.
Follow the money!
SPY - Liking the 560 areaThe fibs lined up just under 560 for a few time frames so I'm entering at this point.
Many expected a Primary Wave 4 to occur before a fifth wave higher. Can't be sure how long this will last but surprised that people might be spooked by recession talk. Seems that we have been in a recession for quite a while, although it hadn't been reflected in the stock market numbers. Certainly, jobs data for the previous year seemed unbelievable and manufacturing has been in a recession for quite a while.
IBIT IShares Bitcoin trust 24hr potterboxes.IBIT IShares Bitcoin Trust 24hr potterboxes. From the looks of things we are in a kinda free fall mode here. It has broken thru the floor $45.32 and is not that far off from the top of the bottom box $41.44. we shall see whats happens this is a very intresting day for the market. Happy Trading
Spy $544? I believe liquidity will be taken and a lot of people are going to get recked in this move i think its going to be violent and semi fast I give this 20-35 Trading days to Play out... I see as low as $544 then up up and away she goes heading to $620... Keep in mind we dont have to hit $544 , $550ish could be the bottom before heading higher , In the meantime trade safe be safe and see you there
SPY FORECAST " CORRECTION IN PLAY "Right now, SPY is entering a corrective phase after completing a strong five-wave impulse sequence. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, we are now in an A-B-C correction, and here’s what I expect according to my analysis.
WAVE STRUCTURE EXPECTATION
- Wave A is in motion and is expected to hit support at $511 by March 18, 2025.
- Wave B will likely bring a relief rally toward $535 by March 24, 2025, before sellers take control again.
- Wave C is projected to finalize the correction at $487 by April 1, 2025, aligning perfectly with Fibonacci retracement levels.
HOW GANN CONFIRMS THIS MOVE
Gann Squares & Angles provide additional time and price validation:
- The breakdown below $562 confirms that SPY has lost key trend support.
- Gann's 1x1 and 2x1 angles are pointing to the same price zones where Elliott Wave suggests support.
- This means we are in a structured, time-based correction rather than a random sell-off.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR TRADERS
- Short-term bearish bias until Wave C completes.
- If the price holds $511 (Wave A target), expect a bounce toward $535 (Wave B).
- A break below $511 signals more downside, with Wave C targeting $487 as the final correction zone.
FINAL THOUGHTS
market is moving exactly as expected, and this forecast is based on historically reliable market cycles. Whether you trade stocks or options, knowing where the market is headed helps you position yourself smarter.
Get Out Your Shovels, It's Time To Load UpHappy market selloff everyone! It's about time we got some action.
It's been interesting to see which sectors are selling off, and surprising perhaps nobody, it's mostly high-priced SaaS, consumer finance / gambling names, and meme stocks.
Of note - private equity investment managers, which have presumably seen much higher-than-average financial stress as a result of the tariffs:
- Private Equity (ARES, TPG, KKR, APO, BN, BX)
- Airlines (ALK, DAL, UAL, GEV, AAL)
- SaaS (PLTR, S, NET, TTD)
- Meme / Retail (TSLA, MSTR)
- Sportsbooks / Brokers (FLUT, IBKR, HOOD, DKNG)
- B2C Network Platforms (SPOT, RBLX, GRAB)
- Consumer Credit (SYF, DFS, AFRM, SNV, COF, ALLY)
- Socials (PINS, RDDT)
- Big Banks (GS, MS, JPM, C, TFC)
Anyway, given that the market is now notably oversold by a few common readings, including the oscillator above and CNN's Fear & Greed index, we think it's time to begin scooping up shares in the broader indices, and especially in oversold stocks you may like, including GRAB, SOFI, RDDT, and TTD.
The market is still expensive, but this selloff reeks of a 'blip', and not a longer-term fundamental change in market momentum, positioning, and sentiment. To see that, we'd expect to see a crack in support levels around QQQ $420.
Best of luck out there!
The Nasdaq-100 Since The Crash StartedHere's a line chart of the Nasdaq-100 ETF QQQ since the recent plunge started. It has been relentless selling. While I could tell you all about the 10% correction and all that other jazz, I just want to share this line chart that is essentially going straight down.
I think there are essentially three ways to play this:
1. Do you wait for one capitulation event and then dive in? If so, when does that begin? Start your research process.
2. Does one place a pair trade of sorts for both crazy downside insurance BUT also a quick upside pop. There has not been a rally at all off this crash and as they often observe, the biggest bounces happen after the worst drops.
3. Keep playing the downward trend until otherwise noted. My only concern here is that I keep asking myself: have I missed the down move?
I am watching closely and am wondering when or if a rebound arrives and how to play it. If you have any trade ideas in mind based on this plunge, please comment them below!
SPY target 563I do dowsing with a pendulum on stocks and indexes, and am trying to use my intuition more, but I have a hard time sitting still. I did "tune in" for a minute to ask about SPY this morning & got the mental visual of a kind of peak and strong reversal down, and then the number 63 kept flashing at me.
After a few minutes, I realized that 562-63 is my dowsing target from after we hit the high at $613 (which I posted as a target & hit to the dollar).
So, this is to say, this work can be legit & way more than coincidence or luck.
When I had asked about when the 562 area would hit (on 2/23), my answer was 11 days. That date comes in on Thursday.
If price and time can align, results may be sublime. I seriously had to do that, but it is true & ideal if they coalesce. I do have some dates coming for Wednesday as well, so it could be off. But I have strong conviction 562-63 hits & then some kind of bounce, which I will update.
Nasdaq short-term long: Bounce off Trendline, RSI DivergenceIn summary, I think that there is a good odds that Nasdaq will rebound in the short-term because it has bounced off a 2-year trendline and RSI has diverged with price. Using QQQ to gauge volume, I can also see that there is a healthy volume to support a reversal. However, take note that as of now, I will still consider this to be a corrective wave up and not a major trend reversal to the upside. Meaning, the major trend is still down.