ETF market
SPY/S&P500: in the mid-term resistance zonePrice has approached the upper border of the mid-term resistance zone: 598-612.
Until price closes bellow 612, I am preparing for the start of a correction to mid-term support: 564-540.
If price moves confidently above 612, than next resistance target is at 635 level.
The macro-structure of the uptrend from 2022 lows is well intact until price holds above 540 level and assumes higher targets for 2025 at 635-640-670 levels.
I wish everyone Merry Christmas and successful and profitable 2025!
Thank you for your attention.
SPY Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 575.87
Bias - Bullish
Safe Stop Loss - 569.47
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 588.44
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
Hello, Friends!
SPY pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is evidently falling on the 9H timeframe. And after the retest of the support line below I believe we will see a move up towards the target above at 593.41 because the pair oversold due to its proximity to the lower BB band and a bullish correction is likely.
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$SPY March 10, 2025AMEX:SPY March 10, 2025
60 Minutes
Last week we managed to hit 565 as projected.
Now we are having LL with oscillator divergence.
Also, we can see in the channel LL 566.63 is a green bar with close near top of bar.
Now from Marcg 4 to 7 AMEX:SPY struggling to cross the mid channel line.
Foe the fall 597.43 to 565.63 a retracement up to 585 is possible.
583 is 50 averages.
On Monday holding 573-573.5 I expect a move towards577 - 581 range.
Due to oscillator divergence, I will not short.
No trade day for me on Monday as long is also above 598 for the moment.
On the other side if 564 is broken my target is 560 which will end the extension move as drawn.
Some consolidation is coming this week which will give us a better picture hopefully by Wednesday.
FAS Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysys 030825 Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 147/61.80%
Chart time frame: B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: C
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
TQQQ Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysys 030825 Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 68.2/61.80%
Chart time frame: B
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
Market Update - 3/9/2025We're quite oversold on all indexes, so at this point probably everyone is expecting some bounce next week. How strong it will be is uncertain, but the likelihood of it happening is quite high.
I've been ruthlessly cutting losses on all my trades to 1/3 of my historical average losses, and due to a nice big trade on NASDAQ:JVA , I actually made $33 this week, which I'm really happy about given the tough market environment we are in. Just goes to show how much you can improve your RR by cutting losses even shorter than normally.
I still see a lot of strength in car-related names, as well as in communications / electric component names. Didn't mention but industrials ( AMEX:XLI ) was the leading industry on Friday, so that's also kind of confirming. Some really nice setups for next week in NASDAQ:VEON , NASDAQ:REBN , NASDAQ:PONY , NYSE:FPH , NASDAQ:PRCH
SPY: Summary for Next Week (March 10)Hey guys,
Going to post just a written idea and just give you a summary of the data.
The math levels are in the chart above.
We are in a pretty strong downtrend on the hourly and daily as you can see from the Tradingview Linreg tool.
The reference target on the week (yellow line) corresponds to retracing to the top of the range, from there we see either rejection or a breakout.
Projections have spy retracing/selling -2% on the week from where it opens on Monday.
Best fit bullish target on the week: 583.69.
Best fit bearish target on the week: 569.32.
Expect retracement to 572 range on Monday.
SPY and SPX broke the 200 EMA then reclaimed it. This is actually not a bullish sign, traditionally during pullback we would expect ultimate support at 200, not a break and reclaim. More on that in the details that will follow in this idea.
We are seeing a ton of selling volume and almost an absence of buying volume (more on that in the bulk of the idea).
We have now adopted the bear market forecast from my annual forecast projections I shared earlier this year (more on that in the bulk of the idea below)
The relevant EMA targets are visible in the chart above.
Great, now that the summary is out of the way, let's go into a few more details about things and stuff.
First for the DRAMATIC! Let's talk about the bear market.
Oh yeah, I'm saying it, BEAR MARKET.
But I don't actually know if we are heading for a bear market. What I mean by bear market is, if you followed my annual outlook at the beginning of the year, I had R generate 2 forecasts for the year, 1 Bullish and 1 Bearish. I did this as I discovered this was something that other quant firms do, and anything they can do I can do better :-p.
So at the time we had been not really following any forecast, but the assessment was bullish based on closest proximity to forecast, just meaning the trend looked more like it was following the bullish forecast, but not really well.
However, that has since deviated for some weeks, and we are not having a really huge and strong match for the bear market forecast. Let me share this with you below:
As you can see, we are bouncing where it says we are to bounce and we are selling where it says we are to sell. And the correlation and distance measures are now happy because this trend is actually following the projection.
But please understand that I am not saying we follow this to end of year; because frequently I see from looking at other forecasts like this, we can flip between trends throughout the year.
But as of right now, we are following the bear trend.
Based on this trend, we could see a bit of a bounce going into next week; but mostly a tame consolidation period before a pretty drop again in the following week. This is just based on this trend analysis.
Now volume!
I like volume, since my little volume forecast that I was very dismissive about in my last video idea called the complete collapse this week, I think I will be more attentive in the future 😂.
I usually share my fancy 3D volume profiles on my videos. Unfortunately I can't share 3D stuff on a written idea, but I modified a similar function to actually create a heatmap and breakdown the actual composition of the volume, so is mostly buying, selling etc. The more red, the more selling the more green, the more buying.
Here is the volume composition at various intervals:
The implications of these plots are to probably be short biased towards the 585 range, as there is a ton of recent selling in this zone.
On the larger look (25 days and above) it has been all selling for a quite a while.
I know some other traders using OBV have pointed this out that, for a while, volume has been very tilted heavily in the bearish direction, hence why SPY was at a stand still at the recent highs, but you can really visualize the reality of the situation with this function/plots.
Another thing we can see from these plots is that there is not enough buying happening currently to really sustain a huge bounce. However, like I said before, volume can decide to show up whenever she wants!
You can also see a lot of trapped bulls in the volume, who were buying at highs.
EMA Nonsense
All eyes were on the EMA 200 this week. People betting their life on the 200 EMA bounce.
There was a fake breakdown and then recovery.
But let me tell you my little trader love muffins, its not bullish.
I quickly created a function to just scan when we cross below the EMA 200 and then close above it, how often do we end up actually giving it up and falling and closing below it, how long does it take and what is the anticipated decline from this happening.
And by god, R always delivers. Here are the results for SPY, SPX, ES1!:
When looking at the results, good to know, the length of the data contained.
For SPX, n number of data points = 24932, start date 1871-02-01
For ES1!, n number of data points = 6955, start date 1997-09-09
For SPY, n number of data points = 8082, start date 1993-01-29
The data tells us that we can potentially see a 2% bounce to the upside next week.
However, the overarching bias of these results actually align well with the annual assessment, which has this upcoming week as consolidation before another drop (with the average n days elapsing between the initial test of the EMA and the loss of the EMA being 8 days, bringing us to losing the EMA 200 next week).
That is the data.
I have no opinions.
In this idea, I am just sharing the objective data, you do with it as you wish.
As always, not advice, I do really strongly encourage everyone to position defensively and be careful!
Safe trades to all!
SPY: Bullish Continuation is Highly Probable! Here is Why:
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current SPY chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the upward direction.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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