Who Benefits from the Dunce Tariff Tsar? The Art of The Short: When SPY Bleeds, Dracula Drinks
Today we’re diving deep into the MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN (SPYU), the ultimate degenerate’s playground for snorting the market when SPY takes a nosedive.
Tonight, my fellow nightwalkers, I wipe my mouth after my fangs bite into MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN (SPYU) the juiciest vein in the market’s pale white supremisist neck, ripe for snorting when SPY collapses under the weight of its own mortal greed. I’m Dracula, your undead degen, and I’ve been snorting the lifeblood of Wall Street since the days of ticker tape and blood-soaked ledgers. Let’s feast.
Picture this: it’s 2025, Trump’s slapping tariffs on everything from iPhones to tacos, and the S&P 500’s staggering like a peasant drained dry. SPY’s down 5% in a day, a crimson river flowing for weeks. With SPYU’s 4x leverage, that ETN’s plummeting 20% faster than you can hiss “inverse gang rise up.” You bulls might clutch your pearls, or buy the dip but baby, you just giving me that drip, drip, drip.
Here’s the blood ritual: I summon my broker under the moonlight, borrow SPYU shares, sell ‘em at their bloated peak, and slink back to my coffin until the orange man dumps on the market. When SPYU’s rallies, I buy ‘em back, pocketing the difference—20% gains, minus the broker’s measly tithe and some bat-winged fees. The leverage is my coffin nail, amplifying SPY’s death throes into a banquet of tendies. But volatility decay’ll stake you faster than a hedgie fleeing a short squeeze. Snort quick, my pretties.
Disclaimer: This is unholy entertainment, not mortal advice. Snorting’s riskier than a sunrise stroll, and you could lose your crypt. Do your own necromancy, don’t YOLO your blood money, and maybe consult a living advisor instead of a WSB vampire. Markets are feral, tariffs are feraler, and SPYU’s the feralest. Feast wise, or crumble to dust.
What in the Nosferatu Is SPYU, and Why’s It My Prey?
Listen up, you sun-kissed ghouls. SPYU ain’t some mortal ETF and it’s an exchange-traded note, a dark pact scrawled by the Bank of Montreal (BMO), swearing to bleed 4x the daily pulse of the S&P 500 Total Return Index. Four times the thrill, you hear me? If SPY, that sanctimonious index hog, rises 1%, SPYU surges 4%, a moonlit frenzy. But when SPY stumbles 1%, SPYU’s gutted by 4%, and that’s when I, Dracula, snort its essence like fresh blood from a virgin’s neck. It’s my chalice of chaos.
Why care? Because the market’s a bloated corpse waiting to be drained, and Trump’s tariffs are the silver dagger. When SPY bleeds, SPYU’s leverage makes it a four-course meal for us snortin’ fiends. The mortals weep; I feast.
Bank of Montreal: The Crypt-Keepers Who Sip Regardless
SPYU’s birthed by Bank of Montreal—pale Canucks who guzzle maple syrup and hedge under torchlight. As an ETN, it’s no stock hoard, it’s a blood oath, with BMO bound to pay 4x the S&P’s dance. When SPY falls and SPYU’s carcass sinks, BMO’s debt shrivels, like a thrall freed from my thrall. Are they cackling over goblets? Not quite.
These coffin-dwellers don’t wager their vault on market whims. They weave dark hedges swaps, futures, maybe cursed options traded in shadow pools. When SPY bleeds, their short futures might fatten their coffers, balancing the SPYU tab. But the true leeching? A 2.95% expense ratio, sucked from your veins whether SPY soars or sinks. It’s their eternal tithe for the win, lose, or draw, they’re sipping.
And the twist of the fang? BMO might pawn some risk to swap thralls, other banks, hedge funds, or their own brood. When SPY tanks, those on the hedge’s far side might choke on losses, but their names are buried deeper than my Transylvanian crypt. Prospectuses are murkier than a fog-draped moor, and BMO ain’t etching their secrets in blood. My bet? They keep it in-clan or with beasts who can bear the bite. The real feast is mine (snorting SPYU) and theirs (skimming fees).
Trump’s Tariffs: The Rocket Fuel for SPYU Shorts
Let’s talk about the big dunce red elephant in the room: Trump’s tariffs. The man’s got a hard-on for trade wars, and 2025’s looking like a sequel to his 2018 tariffpalooza. The 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, 102% on China, and who knows what else. Why’s this a big deal? Tariffs jack up import costs, screw over supply chains, and make everything from cars to CPUs pricier. Companies like Apple, Walmart, and Tesla, big S&P 500 names get hit hard, and SPY feels the pain.
When SPY drops, SPYU’s 4x leverage turns a market dip into a bloodbath and that makes my fangs erect like a male pornstar on viagra. Say Trump slaps a more tariff on Chinese goods, and SPY falls another 15% as tech stocks puke. Do the math on how much SPYU goes down in a day. Scale that up with a big position, and you’re buying Lambos while the bulls are crying into their maga cool aid.
But tariffs don’t just hit stocks, they spook the whole market. Investors panic, volatility spikes, and leveraged products like SPYU get wild. That’s your cue to strike. The VIX (fear index) shoots up during tariff tantrums, and SPYU’s daily resets mean bigger swings. If you’re nimble, you can ride those red days for fat gains. Just don’t get greedy—tariff news is noisy, and markets can bounce on a single Trump tweet (or whatever he’s posting on Truth Social these days).
See that little, indicator I cant publish?
Oh, and my little bat-trick? The Sector Value Index (SVI)—my ancient grimoire. It tracks RSI and MFI across SPY’s veins, averages the pulse, and measures the gap to the index. Overbought or oversold, it whispers when the market’s ripe for snorting. When SVI screams “sell,” I pounce.
ETF market
Trump's Tariff Wars : Why It Is Critical To Address Global TradeThis video, a continuation of the Trump's Tariff Wars video I created last week, tries to show you why it is critically important that we, as a nation, address the gross imbalances related to US trade to global markets that are resulting in a $1.5-$1.8 TRILLION deficit every fiscal year.
There has been almost NOTHING done about this since Trump's last term as President.
Our politicians are happy to spend - spend - spend - but none of them are worries about the long-term fiscal health of the US. (Well, some of them are worried about it - but the others seem to be completely ignorant of the risks related to the US).
Trump is raising this issue very early into his second term as president to protect ALL AMERICANS. He is trying to bring the issue into the news to highlight the imbalances related to US trade throughout the world.
When some other nation is taking $300B a year from the us with an unfair tariff rate - guess what, we need to make that known to the American consumer because we are the ones that continue to pay that nation the EXTRA every year.
Do you want to keep paying these other nations a grossly inefficient amount for cheap trinkets, or do you want our politicians and leaders to take steps to balance the trade deficits more efficiently so we don't pass on incredible debt levels to our children and grandchildren?
So many people simply don't understand what is at risk.
Short-term - the pain may seem excessive, but it may only last 30, 60, 90 days.
Long-term - if we don't address this issue and resolve it by negotiating better trade rates, this issue will destroy the strength of the US economy, US Dollar, and your children's future.
Simply put, we can't keep going into debt without a plan to attempt to grow our GDP.
The solution to this imbalance is to grow our economy and to raise taxes on the uber-wealthy.
We have to grow our revenues and rebalance our global trade in an effort to support the growth of the US economy.
And, our politicians (till now) have been more than happy to ignore this issue and hide it from the American people. They simply didn't care to discuss it or deal with it.
Trump brought this to the table because it is important.
I hope you now see HOW important it really is.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-9 : Top/Resistance PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move a bit higher in early trading - trying to identify a resistance area. Then, roll over into a downward price trend.
Be cautious of the overnight price range, potentially already setting the upper boundary of the TOP pattern for today. It can happen that overnight trading sets a PEAK/TOP, and we move into sideways/downward trading related to the current TOP/Resistance pattern.
I believe the US markets will attempt to move upward, toward the $490-500+ level before topping out today. I believe this move will be related to the strong support near the $480 level and will attempt to further establish the downward price channel established by the big breakdown in trend over the past 9+ days.
Ultimately, I believe price is struggling for direction, but I also believe this process (with tariffs) is working out as expected.
This is obviously a very volatile market - so stay cautious as we move into a more consolidated price trend over the next few weeks.
I don't expect the markets to try to make any really big moves over the next 2+ week (unless news hits). At this point, I believe the markets will try to UNWIND the volatility over the next 2+ weeks.
BTCUSD is trading near the lower range of the consolidation phase. This could be the start of the breakdown to the Ultimate Low.
GOLD and Silver are moving higher after forming the base (just as I expected). Metals will likely rally strongly as global fear elevates.
Thank you for all the great comments. I'll try to publish a few new videos today and tomorrow to help everyone out.
Remember, price gives us new information every minute/bar. It is a matter of unraveling the puzzle with price - one bar at a time.
If you like what I do, follow along.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Trumpenomics - Market Volitility - How low will it go?What we know:
When Trump entered office he said the stock market was too high and he was not investing in the markets.
The Tariffs have caused volatility and a decline in the markets.
Market drops in the past have been between 30% and 60%.
How far do you think the market will drop this time?
SELLING PUTS BELOW $40 - UPROBUYING THE DIP ?
Choose your method to start building a position:
a. Selling Puts via a Pyramid scheme ( More at the bottom )
b. Waiting for a bottom, BUY LEAPS and Selling Calls ( 6months out + 200% ) to pay for the LEAPS
Rinse and repeat
c. Pyramid Dollar Cost Average ( monthly purchase on a specific day )
Spy what I see with my little eyeTraders,
Fear, trade wars, WW3, Tariffs and a bunch of I told you soo's..... "You voted for this!" just a bunch of chirping. Because this man got to being a billionaire being a silly goose yeah? What happens when them 401k's start 3x'n, what happens when we see one of the biggest bull markets we have experienced in our lifetime?
I don't know much but I know this..... the bull market may not be over. Just taking a break!
Enjoy the hopium!
Stay Profitable!
Savvy
The "Bearish" Short-term Outlook on the marketI apologize - this video was made mid-market yesterday and took a while to download for some reason. So we did subsequently close below the gap and continue downward wherein we closed the multi-day cup at the former low.
I am shorting this overnight and allowing for the subsequent liquidity build to happen (if necessary) before shorting again. There is plenty of more room to the downside if our strong selling was proven (which it seems it was with the incoming gap down).
Happy Trading :)
Possible gold (GLD) tradeSo apparently the reason why gold fell this morning is because gold has 8% tariff premium built in, that is what the March pump was all about. Turns out gold is exempt from tariffs, and so is silver, so silver dumped the entire March pump.
So the fact that gold is exempt from tariffs basically means that it basically got pumped 8% today because it didn't drop like silver did. Yeah, tariffs were a shock but not 8% gold pump shock. Also, teh demand for physical gold will go down because apparently there was a lot of pre-buying in anticipation of the tariffs, plus people will have less disposable income.
The play here is that if GLD posts a red bar or falls below today's open, then I'm buying puts. Futures are green so I'm not sure if that will be tomorrow or Monday.... though there may be a drop Monday regardless as people actually read news over teh weekend. I should have yesterday before I posted, lol. My bad.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 9, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 Implementation of New U.S. Tariffs: As of April 9, the U.S. has imposed a 104% tariff on Chinese goods, escalating trade tensions and raising concerns about a potential global economic slowdown.
🛢️📉 Oil Prices Decline Sharply: In response to escalating trade tensions, oil prices have fallen nearly 4%, reaching their lowest levels since early 2021. Brent crude dropped to $60.69 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined to $57.22.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, April 9:
📦 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.8%
Indicates the change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers, reflecting supply chain dynamics.
🗣️ Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin Speaks (11:00 AM ET):
Remarks may shed light on economic conditions and policy perspectives.
📝 FOMC Meeting Minutes Release (2:00 PM ET):
Provides detailed insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy deliberations from the March meeting.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Warning Relief Rally Maybe DelayedLooking how closed tonight on that support
does not bond well for me
So if we break that low I am out long and will short SPY
Add IWM MAGS short they make new lows
Add TZA new high. Guys it breaks we will just drop few days 450 lower
We hold that good also banks Friday earnings can be a NASTY day tomorrow rest week
SPY | Things Could Get Ugly | ShortSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
SPY Technical Breakdown & Macro Context1. Big-Picture Narrative
There’s increasing talk of a “104% China Tariff,” bringing back memories of Donald J. Trump’s 1988 loss in a piano auction to a Japanese buyer—an event some speculate influenced his later calls for high import taxes. Fast-forward to today, and concerns about renewed tariff escalation add extra pressure on the markets. The user’s view: unless there’s a political shift—where Republicans become more concerned about broader voter sentiment than aligning with Trump—this could drive the S&P 500 down to 3000. While that is quite a distance from current levels, it underscores how aggressive policy moves (tariffs, trade wars) can weigh heavily on equities.
2. Hourly & Daily Chart Overview
Short-Term (Hourly)
Price has trended steadily downward, with each bounce finding new sellers at lower highs.
Key Levels on the chart include:
510.84 (L. Vol ST 1a) – A noteworthy pivot-turned-resistance.
498.01 (L. Vol ST 2a) – Important resistance-turned-support level that recently broke.
485.18 (H. Vol Sell Target 1a) – Currently acting as near-term support.
472.35 (Weeks High Short) – Further support below 485.
Longer-Term (Daily)
The broader trend remains bearish, with high-volume selling in the last few sessions.
RSI on the daily is dipping into the 30s, indicating oversold conditions—but remember that oversold can persist in a strong downtrend.
Elevated ATR (14) around 16 suggests volatility remains high; large intraday swings can occur.
3. Possible Trade Setups
A) Bearish Continuation (Primary)
Entry Trigger:
A failure to reclaim 498 (L. Vol ST 2a) or a decisive break below 485.18 on strong volume.
Profit Targets:
First Target: 472.35 (Weeks High Short)
Second Target: 459.52 (Half 1 Short) for a larger downside move
Extreme Target: If policy missteps intensify and no political moderation occurs, the user foresees a slide to S&P 3000—an extreme scenario but a reminder of how macro risks can extend a downtrend.
Stop Loss:
Just above 500–502 if you’re entering on a breakdown, to protect against whipsaw should SPY manage a strong recovery above key resistance.
B) Oversold Bounce (Alternative)
Entry Trigger:
A strong reclaim of 498–500 and at least one hourly close above it, indicating buyers have stepped in.
Profit Targets:
First Target: 510.84 (L. Vol ST 1a)
Second Target: 523.67 (Best Price Short level) if bullish momentum accelerates
Stop Loss:
Below 485 to limit risk in case the rally fails and downtrend resumes.
4. Macro & Political Watch
Tariffs & Trade Policy: New or increased tariffs can rapidly shift market sentiment. Keep an eye on headlines for abrupt policy changes or legislative updates.
Political Dynamics: If Republicans shift their stance or emphasize broader voter concerns over aligning with Trump’s trade approach, it might calm markets. Conversely, unwavering support for tariff policies could amplify market downside.
Economic Indicators: In addition to politics, watch earnings releases and consumer data. If the economy shows unexpected weakness amid tariff concerns, selling pressure could intensify.
5. Final Thoughts
Volatility is Elevated: Intraday whipsaws are common; stay disciplined with stop-loss placements.
Bearish Bias Persists: The trend is clearly down unless bulls can reclaim key resistance levels with conviction.
Manage Risk: Always size positions appropriately given the current volatility, and remain prepared for sudden news-driven moves.
In summary, tariffs and politics remain a focal point, with historical anecdotes highlighting how personal experiences can shape trade policy. Whether SPY crashes all the way to 300 (S&P 3000) depends on how severe and prolonged these headwinds become. Keep a close eye on technical levels, watch for policy announcements, and maintain a vigilant approach to risk management.