The week ahead Some ideas for the week ahead. I do think we'll bottom this week, but maybe not Monday. However, I think eager buyers will support price on Monday no matter how bad the gap down may be. Best not to rush in in my opinion.
ETF market
SPY: End of March/Start of April Hey everyone,
Going to keep this short because I feel like, between projections and levels, I have a good idea of what is going to happen next week.
The chain of events seem to be gap down/ or sell towards 550 / 549, then up to 557 (which is also our reference target, that yellow line in the chart) where we see rejection to sub 550.
I am a little shook that this is moving super quick, but the last correction in a Trump era was fairly swift, tumbling over 20% in the span of maybe 3 months if I remember correctly (2018). But it was a complex market because there was an initial collapse, then a choppy grind up to highs, then an even deeper sell. I am hoping that this does not repeat because that would be annoying.
Here is the forecast:
The red line is the best fit projection.
Looking at the forecast overlaid with the levels for next week it does really align well with the move to 557.
If we are to break over 557, then I would be looking for a cap at 559.
The best fit low is 546, which means dropping below previous support.
The ultimate target as of right now is a move back to the quadratic mean in the 490s. Though we could find support on the upper confidence level.
If we are doing a very fundamental correction, 472 is SPY's mean based on the US money supply:
As of right now the target to really just care about is 546.
And as a side note, there was a ton of volume uptick in that 555 range. We only hit it on Friday, but over the last 5 days, 555 comprised the HIGHEST volume, all selling, to the point of being SPY's 5 day POC. That is pretty intense for a new low on the week achieved Friday a few hours before market closed for the weekend to comprise the most volume and it being 95% in one direction. This stark EOW volume generally would lead to gap in the direction of the volume, which was bearish, so hence I do expect a bit of a gap down.
Anyway, those are my thoughts, keeping the idea fairly simple this week because I'm tired haha.
Safe trades, enjoy your weekend!
P.s. Thank you as always to Tradingview for allowing people to do plots with pinescript on public ideas! 🙏🙏🙏
GLD Will TOP SOON - Good For Crypto and AltsGLD has been on a tear lately, but I believe the rally will come to an end next week. This will be good for BTC and Alts. First looking at the RSI on GLD we can see it is now overbought on a monthly and this somehow coincides with the April 2 deadline on Tariffs. IMO I think this is a trap and GLD will begin to fall after it reaches just above the line I have in the chart.
SPY Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear friends,
SPY looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 555.80 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 569.99
Recommended Stop Loss - 549.79
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ Will Explode! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the QQQ next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 468.97
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 488.44
My Stop Loss - 457.91
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XIN Long Entry and ExitSharing to remind myself that mistake happen more often for me in bear markets.
Here I have entered on a CCI trigger. Not a particularly bad entry although there was an immediate pullback. But the SL placement was poor. I am still trying to discover what I pinned it on but cannot see why.
SPY is still on thin iceA month back I wouldn't have believed this post though I did expect 10% correction and exited my major position at the top. I post this as pure academic purpose and my own record. I find volume profile the most important tool in technical analysis. Whatever I present here is an educated guess and not pure speculation. Before doing the profile I did a VP study on major stocks, since VP shows more clarity on the stocks
Based on Volume profile the sellers will have little resistance breaking through thin ice zone. We could still be looking at 514 easily. Then it starts facing some resistance
Market is still breaking through bubble territory. The reason I call bubble territory is because the volume became significantly lower after May 24. Most of the large investors and funds had bought their major holding by then. If fact based on news Warren Buffet and Michael Burry started selling USA market in August and kept selling till end of Dec. WB sold his entire holding of American express, one of his favourite company Berkshire was holding largest cash balance in is history by Dec. Smart guy. So I just followed him. Then I ask If these heavy weights are selling will they back after 10% correction? No way, they would wait for at least 20% or more markdown
This give me confidence in my analysis and economic environment supports that too
The market will quick fall through low volume region or imbalances. These act like magnets for the price and stop or pause for a breath at High volume nodes and even bounce back to take back some the low volume nodes. These can create a flag structure. This what happened when the market bounced back from 5500 to 5790 and reversed again. I correctly said in a previous post it was a bear flag
When the market is euphoric and in FOMO stage it will leave lots of volume gaps which attracts the market back to those levels
Long term support line being testedLong term global trend line being tested twice. RSI breakdown. If support line breaks, quite some downside possible?
My market direction guide with extended-hour. Work best for >+1 day till expiration contract. (SWING)
Personal Interpretation of Indicator:
5MA=yellow(scalp trend)
20MA=orange(pullback of a larger timeframe’s 5MA trend)
I read how previous candles are behaving around 1hr 20MA and use pullback test rejection for direction signal. (Trade Planning, knowing the MA are align with larger timeframes like 4hr or day)
Then, I use 15min 20MA pullback test with wick rejection to find cheaper price entry.
Possible Similarities to 2022 Bear Market QQQ Weekly Chart. Very similar structure and price action to the run up and subsequent bear market of 2022. Plan is to sell into strength and possibly look for longs off deep support levels. If this scenario unfolds it will require adaptability and will present difficult trading scenarios that will punish hesitation and chasing. Great opportunities for long term investors off deep support levels such as 200 SMA on higher timeframes. A pull back to 450 would be the first target and the 21 EMA on the Monthly chart and the 89 EMA on the Weekly. Look for possible put options 7-21 DTE.
Bear Flags on Multiple Timeframes (Look out below!)Showing bear flags on multiple timeframes -- the technical setup is a popular one for a reason--it often does as you would expect.
SPY: Breakdown with Strong Momentum – Key Targets Ahead
📉 Overview:
The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) has broken through a key support level with strong downward momentum. This bearish move suggests further downside potential, with key targets identified below.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
Price has decisively broken below a key support zone with strong momentum, indicating a potential continuation to the downside.
1st Target: Around $537.75, which aligns with the yearly mid-level support.
2nd Target: Around $510.27, which coincides with the 6-month low level.
Momentum indicators (Neon Momentum Waves) are trending downward, supporting bearish sentiment.
Long-Term Support: The yearly low at $466.43 remains a major downside level to watch if bearish pressure intensifies.
🚨 Trading Plan:
📌 Bearish Bias – Look for potential short entries on pullbacks towards the broken support level, now acting as resistance.
📌 Stop Loss: Consider placing stops above the breakdown level (~$560) to mitigate risk.
📌 Profit Targets:
First target: $537.75
Second target: $510.27
📊 Risk Management:
Keep an eye on volume and momentum indicators to confirm the bearish move.
If price reclaims the broken support level, reconsider the short thesis.
📢 Conclusion:
SPY is showing strong bearish momentum after breaking key support. If the trend continues, the price may reach the identified targets. Traders should monitor price action and momentum signals for confirmation.
⚠ Disclaimer: I'm not a financial expert—just sharing my thoughts based on my analysis. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
Do you agree with this outlook? Let’s discuss in the comments! 🚀📉
#SPY #Trading #StockMarket #Bearish #TechnicalAnalysis #SwingTrade #Momentum #NotFinancialAdvice
S&P 500 ETF (SPY) Market Cycle Analysis – Correction coming ?This chart presents a macro view of SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) on a bi-weekly timeframe, highlighting key market cycle corrections and potential upcoming trends.
Key Observations:
🔴 Trendline Support: The price action has consistently respected a long-term ascending trendline, with previous corrections bouncing off similar levels.
📉 Historical Market Corrections: Red vertical lines mark significant past corrections (Feb 2020, Dec 2021), aligning with dips in the lower indicator, suggesting cyclical downturns.
📊 Momentum Indicator (Lower Panel): Past dips in this momentum indicator (highlighted with red arrows) coincided with major corrections in the SPY chart. The recent downward trend raises concerns about another potential market pullback.
🔮 Future Projection (March 2025?): Based on previous cycles, the next major correction could occur around March 2025, aligning with potential trendline retests. If history repeats, we may see a pullback before resuming the uptrend.
Key Questions for Traders & Investors:
✅ Will SPY respect the trendline and recover, or are we heading for a deeper correction?
✅ Does the current market structure resemble past cycle downturns?
✅ How will macroeconomic conditions influence SPY’s next move?
Let me know your thoughts! Are you preparing for a correction, or do you see more upside potential? 🚀📉
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade responsibly!
XLF DaytradingI was way late to the party buying puts today because I thought it'd bounce when my futures indicators hit oversold, but I did catch part of the initial drop, and then re-entered the trade when SPX broke support and financials lagged a bit.
Figured XLF had to also make a new low, and the "h" pattern gave me a target around $49 - $49.05 so I flipped my puts there.
If indicators don't work, you gotta go with chart formation. That's the best you can do....
AVGX – Defiance – 30-Min Long Trade Setup!📈 🚀
🔹 Asset: AVGX (NASDAQ)
🔹 Timeframe: 30-Min Chart
🔹 Setup Type: Falling Wedge Breakout + Support Bounce
📊 Trade Plan (Long Position)
✅ Entry Zone: Around $15.00 (breakout confirmation + retest bounce)
✅ Stop-Loss (SL): Below $14.55 (recent low & demand zone)
🎯 Take Profit Targets
📌 TP1: $15.99 (gap-fill zone / supply area)
📌 TP2: $17.12 (strong resistance zone)
📊 Risk-Reward Ratio Calculation
📉 Risk (SL Distance):
$15.00 - $14.55 = $0.45 risk per share
📈 Reward to TP1:
$15.99 - $15.00 = $0.99 → (2.2:1 R/R)
📈 Reward to TP2:
$17.12 - $15.00 = $2.12 → (4.71:1 R/R)
🔍 Technical Analysis & Strategy
📌 Falling Wedge Pattern: Breakout from falling resistance trendline
📌 Support Confirmation: Price held near $14.55 before bouncing
📌 Retest Validated: Breakout zone retested with a bullish reaction (yellow circle)
📌 Momentum Shift: Squeeze indicator showing recovery potential
⚙️ Trade Execution & Risk Management
📊 Confirm bullish candle close above trendline breakout
📉 Trailing Stop Strategy:
Move SL to breakeven after TP1 hits
💰 Partial Profit Booking Strategy
✔ Book 50% at TP1 = $15.99
✔ Let the rest ride to TP2 = $17.12
✔ Adjust SL to protect profits
⚠️ Breakout Failure Risk
❌ Setup fails if price breaks below $14.55
❌ Wait for solid breakout candle before entering
🚀 Final Thoughts
✔ Falling wedge breakout signals reversal potential
✔ Strong support base around $14.50
✔ High R/R setup with potential up to 4.7:1
🔗 #AVGX #NASDAQ #BreakoutTrade #ProfittoPath #ETFTrading #SwingTrading #TechnicalSetup #FallingWedge #SmartMoneyMoves #ChartPatterns
$540 incoming put trade expiring 4/4 or 4/11
AMEX:SPY
I start these Anchored VWAPs where the volume was the lowest before a major upside or downside.
When I entered this trade $540 expiring 4/4 was at $.5 on 3/27 on Thursday around 9.55am currently $2.06 closing week, however I want to highlight that the $540-$530 would be the major leg down and we might see the $570-$580 levels for first week of June imo.
Note: I am heavily comparing price actions for nowadays with 2022 first half drawdown.
SPY to $483. Weekly ViewMeaning is in the charts, not in words, LOL
This is so strange that TradingView wants us to write more and more concepts and make it sounds more thank it is , such weird thing, words words words, which charts is what we are looking at.
$SPY Short position.To add context, I am an average joe in his 20's who graduated high school with a 1.6 GPA.. Prior to my current employment at a financial institution, I worked as a gas station clerk. I am not someone who sees himself as a genius, but I am somebody who identifies patterns not only in people, but charts as well. I've worked for a bank on the credit card side coming up on 5 years. Day in day out, people are struggling to keep up with their credit card payments. 750-830 FICOs struggling to keep up with bills. Keep in mind, I only work with what we deem our 'high value', cliental. If our card holders who we deem to be good or great consumers are struggling to keep up, I can only imagine what it looks like for those who don't qualify to get to my department (which is a rather big pool of people). This thesis is centered around a possible correction in the short term, that may lead to a long-term reset based off of 4 things: human behavior, Federal Reserve Data, inflation, and credit.
The market as we know it has been propped on lies, fraud, and negligence. This is not a political post, but if you look at Federal Reserve Reports through FOMC under the previous administration, over 48% of job reports specifically, were revised downwards. During the duration of March of 2021 to September of 2024, approximately 808,000 jobs were "added", to the economy. One can make the argument that these numbers were there to, 'fluff, reportings to hide one of the worst economies in history.
The Dollar has been a concept and an asset since 1785. Since 2020, we've printed over 60% of all dollars circulating. Over 200 years and it only took the U.S. a little under 5 years to print over 60% of all U.S. currency circulating. The inflation never left; it was hidden by false or fraudulent data. Americans have been squeezed from their hard-earned dollar for the last 4 years, between higher interest rates, higher inflation and cost of living. Remember how I mentioned I work for a bank on the credit card side? Minimal payments, easily $6500 dollar balances on average, being carried month to month between 24-27% APR. Americans DO not have money. Over the last month, one of the most common statements I've heard is, "The only way I can pay this off is I cash out on assets.". Delinquencies are sky rocketing to levels not seen since '07 - '08. People are slowly getting the same thought.
The first week of April in my opinion is do or die. Trump is set to announce new tariffs as of April 2nd. If Trump decides to really lay down the tariffs and kick off a real trade war, markets will react in a manner of uncertainty. If in that same week, the Federal Reserve forecasts a lower GDP, a higher CPI, a decrease in forecast in employment, that could be the kick that takes the stool out from under the market.
If you've made it this far, thank you for taking the time to consider my first publication.
-ScG
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-28-25 EOD Review : Brutal SellingI sure hope all of you were able to profit from this big selling trend today.
And I also hope you didn't get trapped in the potential for a base/bottom rally off the recent lows.
This move downward reminds me of the 2022-2023 downward trending pattern when the Fed was raising rates.
What Trump is doing with tariffs is very similar. It is slowing the economy in a way that will not break it - but it will result in slower, more costly, economic function.
Watch this video and I sure hope all of you have great (profitable) stories to share with me today.
I know I do. And, I'm positioned for the weekend. Ready to profit no matter what the markets do.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
MSTUTalking heads like Tom Carreras put out knowingly false statements against MSTR. That’s called “scienter” and it’s a crime what he just did. Tom said that MSTU ETF may have to “sell MSTR” if times get tough. That is a false statement. Nowhere in the MSTU prospective does it say that MSTU has to buy or sell the underlying. I think they explicitly say that they do not, and that MSTU is a synthetic option vehicle. Correct me if I’m wrong. So, what he said was completely false and misleading. He wanted to threaten you against owning MSTU, but he failed to identify the primary risk in MSTU, which is a 50% drawdown in the underlying in a single day. That would completely wipe out MSTU holders, but no mention of it from Tom.
Tom fails to understand where all of the value is coming from to “buy the dip” as he says. As least he is astute enough to realize it is the dip. Degens saw their position go up by 600%, and other degens noticed it, and they want in. Where is the money coming from? Bonds.
$SPY down to 515 area during this leg down.IMHO,
I see a path for the SPY during this leg down to drop to the 515 area.
IBB look out belowIt was a good run, but what goes up must come down, and IBB has a long way to fall. I would short it
Bear SPY!So far, according to what has been analyzed... waiting for candle behavior in the 547 area to brake,... if not, buy it, it's said!
