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QQQ - Correction Underway After Recent HighsThe QQQ is currently undergoing a corrective move after reaching a recent high of around 540 USD. The price has retraced sharply from this level, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment as sellers begin to dominate. Key Levels Support Zones: Immediate support can be seen around 519 USD, with more significant zones near 500 and 480 USD, which aligns with previous price consolidation. Market Structure After a strong upward move, the price has entered a consolidation phase, with lower highs indicating the start of a pullback. Sellers have gained control, as evidenced by the recent price action. Volume The CVD is deeply negative, highlighting strong selling pressure in the current market phase. This suggests that while price holds near key support, bearish momentum remains high, and we may see further downside if these levels don't hold. Outlook Watch for price action around the current support. If this level breaks convincingly (what has to be expected, regarding the highly negative momentum), we could see a deeper retracement toward 500 USD. On the other hand, a strong bounce from current levels, might signal a resumption of the bullish trend. The two different pathways show the most likely outlooks: The green path shows the best bullish case, while the blue path seems to have a higher likelihood, but therefore offers a better RRR for future long positions.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by Ochlokrat
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 12-19 : Top PatternToday, we should expect the SPY/QQQ to move a bit higher - trying to form a short-term top before price rolls downward again. I urge traders to stay very cautious of early trending and look for a bigger opportunity later in the day as price rolls downward. Gold and Silver are struggling. I still believe Gold and Silver will rally higher as fear elevates. But right now - that is not happening. I need to see Gold and Silver move away from this panic selling before I can become move convinced of a trend. Stay cautious if you are trying to trade Gold and Silver right now. Bitcoin is moving through an EPP pattern very cleanly - actually a DUAL EPP pattern. $95-$99k should be the downside price target throughout this move. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
EWW - Betting on the ElectionWhile election betting sites are coming into the spotlight these days, another way to bet on the upcoming election is through betting on the Mexican economy. Anecdotal evidence indicates that China and even US manufacturing giants are set to build more plants in Mexico should the Harris team win. Trump on the other hand, promises tariffs on items manufactured abroad. Also noted is the multitudes of immigrants waiting at the Guatemalan border to head to the US should Harris and Democrat border policies prevail. Mexico would be smart in capturing those qualified to add to Mexico's potential manufacturing powerhouse should the political chips fall their way. Another factor to consider long term is the demographic cliff that the US is on, and Latin America isn't. Mexico certainly is in a strong position to develop into an economic powerhouse of the future, with appropriate leadership.
AMEX:EWWLong
by AssetDesign
Don't give up and buy TLTWe have a new rate cut, congratulations! The Fed rate is now 4.5%. What is happening in the market, and why does the effect of the rate seem to "work in reverse"? After all, TLT should have been above 100 long ago, especially after so many rate cuts. Yes, that's entirely correct, so why are all our accounts in the red? First and foremost—the most important thing—never sell U.S. Treasury bonds at a loss. Second, the market is "inclined" or "disposed" to believe that the Fed is either lying or doesn't have a proper grasp of the situation. Due to domestic political changes and the effects of Trump's policies, inflation is expected to remain high for a prolonged period—potentially above 3%. Even in that scenario, a yield of 4.7% or higher on 20+ year bonds remains attractive. More on that later, but in the real sector, following the elections, the Chinese yuan has already depreciated by over 5% against the U.S. dollar. RIGHT NOW, the U.S. debt market is the most attractive market with its 3.1% economic growth.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by gorgevorgian
4
$SPY ChatGPT's predicted 12/19 Move Per chatGPT www.tradingview.com Considering the anticipated GDP report and its potential impact on market sentiment, here are three scenarios for SPY’s intraday high and low: 1. Best-Case Scenario: • High: $600 • Low: $585 Assumption: The GDP report exceeds expectations, indicating robust economic growth, which boosts investor confidence and leads to a market rally. 2. Moderate Scenario: • High: $590 • Low: $580 Assumption: The GDP report aligns with forecasts, suggesting steady economic conditions. The market reacts with cautious optimism, resulting in moderate price movements. 3. Worst-Case Scenario • High: $580 • Low: $570 Assumption: The GDP report falls short of expectations, signaling potential economic slowdown. This triggers investor concern, leading to a market sell-off and lower SPY prices. Note: These scenarios are hypothetical and depend on various factors, including investor sentiment, market liquidity, and broader economic indicators.
AMEX:SPY
by harrisonpend
1
SPY 15m Analysis: FVGs and Key Levels for Next MovesOverview This idea focuses on the SPY 15-minute chart, highlighting key fair value gaps (FVGs) and critical support/resistance levels. The current price action shows potential for both bullish and bearish scenarios, contingent on price reactions at crucial levels. Bearish Scenario Key Level to Watch: If SPY closes below 566.44, it signals further downside momentum. Traders should look for the formation of the next Bearish FVG to initiate short positions. Projected Target: First Target: 550–555 zone (likely demand zone or support area). Downward momentum is supported by the recent sharp sell-off, indicating heavy selling pressure. Invalidation: A sustained move back above 588.85 will weaken bearish momentum. Bullish Scenario Key Level to Watch: For any upward momentum, a Bullish FVG must form above the current price, likely in the 588.85–595.79 range. Projected Target: First Target: 595.79 Second Target: 600+, where stronger resistance may emerge. Invalidation: Failure to hold above 588.85 could result in further selling pressure. Volume and Momentum Considerations While individual candlestick volume isn't displayed, the rapid decline hints at increased selling pressure. Monitor volume closely during retests for confirmation of strength or weakness in price action. Plan Your Trade: Use clear invalidation levels to manage risk. Wait for price confirmation (e.g., closing below 566.44 or a bullish FVG forming above 588.85). Utilize stop-loss orders to safeguard against unexpected reversals. Conclusion This setup allows for flexibility, focusing on key zones and volume confirmation. The bias leans bearish, but a bullish retracement cannot be ruled out if price action shifts momentum. Keep an eye on FVG formations for entry signals.
AMEX:SPY
by CapitalGainz33
SPY Crashed Today: Where Will It Head Tomorrow? (Dec. 19)The market witnessed a steep decline today, with SPY reflecting significant selling pressure. This crash-driven move indicates a pivotal shift in market sentiment, raising questions about support levels and potential recovery zones. Market Structure Analysis * Trend Overview: The daily chart shows SPY breaking below its ascending channel, signaling a potential trend reversal or deep correction. * Volume: An extraordinary spike in sell-side volume highlights panic selling and a possible capitulation phase. * Sentiment: Sentiment appears bearish in the short term, driven by macroeconomic fears. Supply and Demand Zones * Demand Zone: $577–$580 (critical for any potential bounce). * Supply Zone: $602–$607 (will act as immediate resistance on recovery attempts). Order Blocks and Support/Resistance * Key Resistance: * $591: A psychological and structural level. * $602: High volume node and previous breakdown level. * Key Support: * $580: Near-term support; failure to hold could test $572. * $567: A crucial lower-level support. Key Indicators * EMA: * 9 EMA and 21 EMA crossed bearish, confirming short-term downtrend momentum. * MACD: * Deep in bearish territory, momentum remains strongly negative. * RSI: * Oversold on multiple timeframes, signaling potential for a technical bounce. Options Flow and GEX * Put Wall: Significant at $590 and $580 levels, suggesting bearish bias remains strong. * Call Wall: $604–$607, indicating heavy resistance if price retraces upward. * Gamma Exposure (GEX): Negative, reinforcing current bearish momentum. Scalping vs. Swing Outlook * Scalping: * Look for intraday bounces from $580 to $586 with tight stop-loss below $578. * Swing Trading: * Wait for confirmation of bottoming signals near $577 before entering long. Bearish positions remain valid below $590. Actionable Suggestions 1. Short-Term Bullish: * Entry: Near $580 support. * Exit: Around $586–$588 resistance. * Stop-Loss: Below $578. 2. Short-Term Bearish: * Entry: On rejection at $590. * Exit: Target $580 or lower. * Stop-Loss: Above $592. Conclusion SPY's break of key support levels indicates a bearish short-term outlook. However, oversold conditions suggest a technical bounce could occur in the $577–$580 range. Monitor key levels and macro catalysts closely before positioning. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk responsibly before trading.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
QQQ Crash Technical Analysis (TA) for Dec. 19Market Overview The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) experienced a significant market drop today, reflecting a bearish sentiment in technology-heavy indices. The broader sell-off has pushed QQQ down to critical technical levels, where a combination of support zones and gamma exposure levels could offer insights for the next trading sessions. Market Structure Analysis * Daily Chart: QQQ broke below its recent upward channel support at $525, with today's close significantly below the 9-EMA and 21-EMA, signaling bearish momentum. * Hourly Chart: A sharp sell-off occurred during today's session, with a brief recovery toward $517. However, the current volume profile indicates strong selling pressure near the $525 resistance. Supply and Demand Zones * Immediate Resistance Zones: * $525.60: Prior support turned resistance, aligning with the gamma exposure wall and heavy put wall. * $533.14: Additional resistance, coinciding with the upper range of today’s intraday high. * Support Zones: * $515: Intraday low support aligning with the highest negative gamma exposure (NETGEX) level. * $507 and $505: Key demand zones visible from previous consolidations and gamma support. Order Blocks and Key Levels * Bearish Order Block: $525 to $533 range has seen consistent selling pressure, forming a robust resistance. * Bullish Rejection Level: $512-$515 acts as a psychological support zone. Key Indicators * MACD: The MACD on both daily and hourly charts has crossed bearishly, with increasing momentum to the downside. * RSI: Hourly RSI has entered oversold territory (~30), indicating a possible short-term bounce. * EMAs (9 & 21): The price remains significantly below both EMAs on all timeframes, confirming the bearish bias. Gamma Exposure (GEX) and Options Activity * Put Wall: The $519 level represents the highest concentration of puts, acting as immediate resistance. * Gamma Exposure (GEX): * Negative GEX levels between $515 and $520 amplify downward pressure. * Above $525, calls dominate, potentially limiting further upside. Scalping vs. Swing Outlook * Scalping Strategy: * Look for short entries near $525 with tight stop losses above $526. * Potential target zones: $517, $515, and $512. * Swing Strategy: * Wait for confirmation of a close above $525 to consider bullish recovery. * Downside swing target: $505 if $512 support breaks. Actionable Suggestions 1. Short Setup: * Entry: Near $525. * Stop-Loss: Above $526. * Target: $515, $507. 2. Bullish Setup: * Entry: On confirmation above $525. * Stop-Loss: Below $520. * Target: $533. Conclusion QQQ is in a precarious technical position, reflecting broader market weakness. A further break below $512 could accelerate the downtrend, while a reclaim of $525 could initiate a short-term recovery. Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly before making trading decisions.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by BullBearInsights