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12/3/24 - $qqq - quick comment on "risk"- by now it should be obvious that this isn't "normal" (hasn't been for over a decade, but esp in the last year). M2 turned positive and risk assets followed especially as labor mkt data started "allowing" fed to cut - but remember, inflation gauges are heading higher. oil probably only has one direction (energy is a big driver) and consumers are ape'ing on basically everything w/ credit card debt exploding higher. amazing! - what concerns me, though is this next fed mtg... 1/ any "cuts" won't really move the needle in terms of truly looser monetary policy 2/ mkts are already at nosebleed highs (let's just use PE e.g. 2-3% vs. 10Y rates) 3/ any indication that the fed is going to not keep with the current programming (b/c let's face it - they're certainly - well who really knows but the dark forces from h3ll - going to accelerate the print bc it's not necessary, look at the mkts!)... which means the only possible direction is possibly more restrictive 4/ now we ARE in year end. there are technically no -ve catalysts on the horizon so to speak, and the mkts need a reason to go down, not up. so the direction holds. i'm happy holding a big allo of BTC, NXT, TSM, META and NVDA and some select other stuff in that order. it's working well and i genuinely think the valuations for these are (ironically) decent 5/ but beware. that if the mkt starts to get the picture of what i'm spelling out above... it won't be next week where you get a pullback (i'm not calling for something extreme, but 5-10% will cause tears for a lot of leveraged low IQ types and zero them quickly)... but i'm prepared with a healthy cash balance, a bunch of shorts (today it's PLTR in size, SG which i've been monetizing a bit, NN, SMR also monetizing a bit and some B2B stuff that just got too expensive like TEAM which i actually like but i digress). just good to be aware of where we're at. try typing in "QQQ/M2" into trading view and look at monthly or 3M candles. note anything interesting? it's best to normalize by money supply one way or another. when and where did we last reach these levels ;) stay vigilant and don't drink too much. the party continues but it's good to remember the exit than be woken up with some unfortunate pictures of your PnL. could have, should have. V
NASDAQ:QQQ
by VROCKSTAR
SPY to $585?: EOY Price TargetUsing the Magic Linear Regression Channel on TradingView.com we look at some possible scenarios for SPY price movement. A shorter term regression channel shows SPY at the top of the channel and rejecting it today - even with more buyers than sellers in the TradingView Volume Footprint chart view. The bottom of the channel converges with last pivot low near $584. It could conceivable go lower, but with lower volume likely during the holiday season, it would seem less likely for it to make any more big moves barring some major unexpected event.
AMEX:SPYShort
by mwrightinc
7
S&P500 ETF SPY Testing Support📉 ** AMEX:SPY Testing Key Support!** 📈 The **S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY )** is pressing against a critical support level — the **green trendline** that's been a pivotal bounce zone for months. Will it hold or break? 🤔 🔍 **What’s driving the move?** - 🔥 **Hawkish FOMC Outlook**: The Fed now sees **fewer rate cuts in 2025 (2 vs. 3 expected)**, keeping rates higher for longer. - 📢 **Geopolitical Risks**: Powell noted some Fed members are factoring in possible **Trump-era policy risks** (think tariffs & deportation) into their forecasts. - ⚠️ **Market Reaction**: Growth stocks are under pressure as higher rates impact valuations. 📊 **Why It Matters?** - If AMEX:SPY holds the support, we could see a technical rebound. 🚀 - A breakdown below the green line could signal further downside risk. 📉 👉 **Traders, are you buying the dip or waiting for the break?** Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️
AMEX:SPYLong
by AlgoTradeAlert
2
MSTX can quadruple your gains.... or losses Micro-strategy has been on an absolute tear in the last few weeks, rallying several hundreds of percent. Luckily for those with a large risk appetite , we have an ETF available to us which provides 2x the volatility of MSTR. This can be a very dangerous play if you do not understand how to manage your risk, so I would advise extreme caution here. With that being said, it seems like we may be seeing an MSTR pullback here into what may be a potential double bottom zone. If I continue to look for higher price on the stock, as well as Bitcoin, I would like mstx to hold up at the critical zone marked on the chart for continuation of this uptrend. Otherwise, losing this level would be quite bearish for me. I have a few major indicators which I would like to reference. 1. Previous range value areas, notably the value area high respected before we saw the massive pump and dump. 2. Gap up zone and previous value area low should hold up if we expect continuation to the upside. 3. Trend based fib extension providing me with a potential zone for the corrective move and where it may end in confluence with the POC and VAL. Lets see how this one plays out.
NASDAQ:MSTXLong
by afurs1
41
Grinch drop, Santa popSPY is at it's 2 year trend channel resistance level. There's very little upside reward left. There's a greater downside risk. The Grinch may try to steal Christmas with a temporary SPY drop towards support. But then a Santa Claus rally will pop SPY back up to it's resistance level. SPY 2 year trend channel levels: resistance = 605 pivot = 585 support = 565 trade ideas: 1) collar strategy hold 100 shares sell 585 call buy 605 put 2) buy 605 put 3) short call spread sell 585 call buy 605 call 4) long put spread buy 605 put sell 585 put SPY options data: 12/6/24 expiry Put Volume Total 219,329 Call Volume Total 125,297 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.75 Put Open Interest Total 750,130 Call Open Interest Total 233,054 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 3.22 12/13/24 expiry Put Volume Total 69,042 Call Volume Total 43,893 Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.57 Put Open Interest Total 317,687 Call Open Interest Total 228,869 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.39 12/20/24 expiry Put Volume Total 336,702 Call Volume Total 139,171 Put/Call Volume Ratio 2.42 Put Open Interest Total 3,273,537 Call Open Interest Total 1,426,800 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.29 12/27/24 expiry Put Volume Total 13,062 Call Volume Total 14,931 Put/Call Volume Ratio 0.87 Put Open Interest Total 72,224 Call Open Interest Total 59,538 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.21 1/17/25 LEAPS Put Volume Total 191,268 Call Volume Total 63,574 Put/Call Volume Ratio 3.01 Put Open Interest Total 2,376,812 Call Open Interest Total 855,976 Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 2.78
AMEX:SPYShort
by Options360
3
[GEX] levels for QQQFirst, let’s examine what we see on our chart using options indicators: Summarizing the GEX levels through December 26, we have a strong call wall at around 540. If price can break above and hold that level, it could easily pave the way toward 550. However, if we’re expecting a Christmas selloff after Friday’s close, this bearish assumption might prove worthwhile. This brings up a point that often comes up: “How do I interpret whether the optoins indicator is bullish or bearish?” There’s no such definitive signal! The levels and options metrics show certain conditions, but no one can tell you exactly what will happen next. This is where you need to have a directional hypothesis. Once you have it, the indicators can help you fine-tune your positioning, identify realistic targets, and select viable legs—but they won’t decide your directional stance for you. For example, while everything may look bullish, let’s say you have a contrarian bearish view. Then you can see where it makes sense to position yourself. Test Case Chosen: 8x QQQ Dec 24th – Dec 26th 525 Calendar Put Spread Max Loss: $216 Max Profit: $1,685 PoP: 45% Why not?
NASDAQ:QQQ
by TanukiTrade
Opening (IRA): XBI February 21st 85 Covered Call... for an 83.01 debit. Comments: Adding at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 83.01/share Max Profit: 1.99 ROC at Max: 2.40% 50% Max: 1.00 ROC at 50% Max: 1.20% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
AMEX:XBILong
by NaughtyPines
Opening (IRA): IBIT February 21st 50 Covered Call... for a 47.07 debit. Comments: High IVR/IV (88.4/68.6) + weakness post-FOMC. Going out to February, as there are only 30 DTE left in January, selling the -75 delta call against shares to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call. Looking at this as a "starter" position, so will look to add at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes/break evens better than what I currently have on. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 47.07/share Max Profit: 2.93 ROC at Max: 6.22% 50% Max: 1.47 ROC at 50% Max: 3.11% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll out short call on take profit point test.
NASDAQ:IBITLong
by NaughtyPines
2
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) 2-Hour Time Frame Analysis Current Current Market Overview As of December 2024, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is showing a bullish trend with the following technical indicators: MACD : Suggests a buy signal. RSI : Indicates a neutral signal. Moving Averages: Both 20-day and 50-day moving averages suggest a buy signal. Price Action: The support level is at US$600.96, and the resistance level is at US$607.46. Options Strategy Recommendations 1. Long Call trade_id: g-663257 Signal: Bullish Option Strategy: Long Call Current Price: US$605.57 Strike Price: US$550.00 Expiry Date: 20-Dec-2024 Buy/Sell: Buy Call/Put: Call Premium: US$55.46 Stop loss: US$49.91 Take profit: US$61.01 Probability of Profit: 51.4% Implied Volatility: 96.81% Max Loss: US$-5546.00 Max Gain: ∞ (infinity) Break-even price: US$605.46 Days to Expiration: 2 Rationale: This strategy is designed to capitalize on a bullish outlook for SPY, with a high probability of profit and a defined risk-reward profile. Conclusion The SPY is currently in a consolidation phase, and the recommended options strategy provides an opportunity to capitalize on potential bullish market movements. The Long Call offers a high probability of profit with defined risk, allowing for profit from significant price movements in the upward direction.
AMEX:SPYLong
by CapitalGainz33
1
(GET READY). DIA is right above the 50DMA for FOMCDIA has had a solid sell off ever since we made new all-time highs on December 4 look at that 35 EMA (the red line) We’ve been trading underneath at the entire time and right now as I’m posting this about an hour and a half before FOMC we’re sitting right at that level. It is a critical level. We’re also sitting right on top of the 50 day moving average and then on the Green side of the weeks trading range we have the one hour 200 moving average and the 30 minute to removing average so you should know all of those levels. You should have them on your chart and the top of the implied move is 445 on the lower side It’s 432. GL
AMEX:DIA
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
(GET READY). IWM's expected move today for FOMCWow guys look at today’s chart for FOMC for IWM. We had a really solid sell off after making new all-time highs after three years back on November 25 and that 35 EMA has been front and center. We did take it all the way back down to the 50 day moving average on the 30 minute timeframe we’re on the one hour timeframe and we’re bouncing on the 50 day moving average or at least holding above it that is also the two hour timeframe Today between 227 to 235 The 35 EMA is right above us that’s definitely the first level. If we get above that we do have the down gap from this Monday and the top of that gap is at 234.37 Then the top of the implied move is at 2:35 and 236 on Thursday’s contract then we do have an interesting cross of the 30 minute two moving average that is underneath the one hour to under average so that is a bear signal underneath us if we break the 50 day we do have The bottom of the move at 2:27 and 226 on Thursday’s contract. We do have a little bit of support that is just underneath that and it’s around 228 that goes back to around November 18 where we saw a few days before we rally to make new all-time highs so that could be a little to watch out for as well.
AMEX:IWM
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
(GET READY) QQQ's Expected move for FOMCAll right so we are right at the 35 EMA you could see that we’ve had a pretty strong rally along that level since the beginning of December we did drop underneath that for two trading days but then we got back above it with CPI and continue to rally so 35 EMA huge level right in the middle of our trading range. The implied move for today is between 530 and 542 for tomorrow. It’s 528 to 543 and four the 30 day average 527 to 545 and that 35 EMA is the big level in our trading range underneath that we do have that up gap from Monday up and then consolidated back to the 35 EMA for FOMC. Five 3915 is where we have previous all-time highs. That is a little more than halfway up our implied move then 542 is the top of the implied move today 543 tomorrow underneath us that gap the bottom of that gap is 530. That is also the bottom of our implied move 528 is the bottom of the implied move tomorrow on Thursday and we have that 30 minute underneath all of that and we also do have that gap from last Friday that is sitting right on top of that 30 minute 200 moving average as well Sorry that this is just one lot run-on sentence today. I’m used to making the videos and just speaking it out and this is speech to text. Hope y’all can make out what I’m saying. Lol
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
(GET READY) The expected move for FOMC in SPYThe expected move for FOMC in SPY After making new all-time highs on Friday, December 6, we have been consolidating back to the 30 minute 200 moving average. You could see how we’ve been chopping around sideways along the 35 EMA back to the 30 minute 200 moving average. So we are just above that 30 minute 200 moving average yesterday we closed directly above it with the 35 EMA directly above that and so far this morning we are above those two levels. We are in that down gap from Monday, going into Tuesday so possible level of resistance around 607 and then we have the one hour 200 average at the very bottom of the implied move. So the implied move is between 600 to 609 and on tomorrow’s contract for Thursday 599 to 610. I’m taking a little short break from making videos because they are very time-consuming and in December in this month with everything going on I just don’t have time to make them, but I will be getting back to that in January and for now I’ll still be posting these still charts GL, y’all
AMEX:SPY
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
Opening (IRA): SMH January 17th 235 Covered Call... for a 230.52 debit. Comments: Mostly in this to attempt to grab the annual divvy ... . Last year, it was 1.04/share, but it has been widely variant from year to year (e.g., 2.40 in 2022; 1.57 in 2021; 1.50 in 2020). Selling the -75 delta call against stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 230.52/Share Max Profit: 4.48 ROC at Max: 1.94% 50% Max: 2.24 ROC at 50% Max: .97% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, but may take profit early if the dividend turns out to be non-chump change.
NASDAQ:SMHLong
by NaughtyPines
Early Xmas with TSLZ....under $2 TSLA will not be able to hold this price for much longer, and when it drops TSLZ will bump up. This is very nice set-up and low price to get it for the new year. Personally, I love TSLA, but there is a dislocation between price and value esp. for a car company with prospects, but those just haven't realized yet and it could take years. The Champgne effect will sizzle soon and folks will get wrecked. Trade your rice and beans for steak and wine! TSLZ looks like a hidden gem at the moment. Best of luck and safe trading!
CBOE:TSLZLong
by antonini2002
Trading Set upHere with a fourth screen set up and order entry window. Yesterday I was able to trade from TradingView and Interactive Brokers. The amount of technical indicators to chose from and the so careful design platform, to me is a lot more than a charting platform, it is a full trading solution that hard to beat. Thanks to the creators and people who also share the technical indicators, code and knowledge, after being in several platforms, this is becoming my favorite. To make things a lot better, a second screen with the market movers gainers, is the best.
AMEX:XLF
by syracusepro