SPY (S&P 500 ETF) – Inflection at Fib Resistance | Dual-Scenario🗓️ June 2, 2025 | 📈 1H Chart | ⚠️ Risk-Off Signal Building?
🔹 Current Price: $592.98
🔺 Key Resistance: $595.54–$597.36 (1.0–1.236 Fib Extension)
🔻 Gap Support: $565.51
🎯 Bullish Target: $604.05–$604.90 (1.382–1.618 Extension)
🔎 Technical Structure:
Trendline Rejection Zone: SPY is pressing into a multi-tap descending resistance. Any failure to break convincingly could invite strong selling.
Fibonacci Overlap: $595–597 aligns with major Fib extensions—potential exhaustion zone.
Gap Unfilled: The $565.51 gap remains untested and could magnet price in the event of a rejection.
Volatility Funnel Forming: Narrowing structure implies imminent directional move.
🌐 Macro Landscape:
Fed Watch: The June 12 FOMC is the next volatility trigger. Fed Funds Futures are pricing in only a ~10% probability of a cut. Hawkish hold expected.
Earnings Season Winds Down: Lack of new fundamental catalysts could increase technical relevance.
Liquidity: Reverse repo balances are falling, suggesting reduced short-term liquidity—typically bearish for risk assets.
Inflation Watch: Sticky Core PCE remains above 2.75% YoY—Fed unlikely to ease aggressively.
📉 Risk Management:
Short Bias Setup:
Entry: $595–597 rejection
Stop: $598.5–599 (Above 1.236 Fib)
Target: $577 (mid-Fib) → $565.51 (gap close)
R:R ~3:1
Bullish Breakout Plan:
Entry: Confirmed breakout + hold above $598
Stop: $593.50
Target: $604–605
R:R ~2.5:1
Volatility Hedge: Consider using VIX calls or SPX put spreads to hedge directional risk around key Fed dates.
🎲 Probabilities:
Scenario Chance Commentary
Pullback to $565 Gap 65% Strong resistance + weakening breadth + macro headwinds
Breakout to $604 35% Requires bullish macro surprise or liquidity-driven melt-up
🔔 Action Plan:
Fade rallies into resistance unless a high-volume breakout confirms. Use stop discipline and hedge exposure into macro events. Stay nimble.
💬 Thoughts? Are we due for a flush or prepping for a face-ripper?
