SpyGoing over
Spy
Dow jones
NYA
I'll keep this mostly cylicals and broader market.. I've written up a qqq post where I cover most tech indexes..
Let's start with NYSE or TVC:NYA
This covers 3000 stocks.. you ever read about weak breadth in the market? Well when ever this is Lagging behind nasdaq and the market is being dragged along by 6 tech stocks then that's what it means.
Ok so last week when the Spy dumped from 595 to 575 in 2 days, a big part of that was NYA ran into a brick wall here at 20,000 as you can see. Add to that price had formed a rising wedge from the melt up from April lows..
So price rejected at 20,000 on NYA but bounced at its 200sma similar to Spy at 575 which let's you know how connected the 2 are
So now we go into this week here literally 1% away from that same resistance.. Nothing moves NYA and IWM more than the monthly jobs, this is because Job numbers reflect economic strength and a weaker economy will impact Cylicals and small caps the most ..
I don't think we break above that trendline resistance, too much uncertainty around Tariffs, Also here's the weekly RSI on NYA dating back 2yrs
At resistance and divergent... I think we break below the 200sma this week Either with Wed ADP or Friday nonfarm payrolls..
Usually to get below the 200sma it takes a GAP down so that's why I think the action takes place pre market on some data.
TVC:DJI
Dow jones
I'm conflicted a little here.
Price is stuck below trendline resistance and 200ma
But price is also showing a possible bullish H&S inside a Pennant.
Dow jones would only be bullish above 43,000..
As you can see there is not anymore room fawk around.. price will break in either direction come next week..
I'm leaning to the bearish side here but things only get seriously bearish back below 40,000 because that would put it back inside that April box
2 of the sectors that really moves the dow is Financials and Health
Look at this XLF weekly chart
Price is distributing at a 15yr resistance
Zoomed in
Looks like a 2022 repeat about to happen as early as this fall
The position XLF is in makes me doubt Financials will lend a boosting hand here .
XLV - health care on the other hand looks really bullish short term
Daily channel shows a 7% upside to channel top
Daily rsi showing bullish Divergence
So health could offset some of the dow losses but not enough if tech and Financials rollover.
Lastly my number one reason I'm bearish on the dow is DJT or dow jones transportation
Weekly candle stuck below 15,000, trendline resistance , 20 and 200ma.
Seasonality June and July is bullish for DJT because of the traveling but if they can't break above this area in the middle of its best seasonality then nothing is safe
Lastly Spy
ALWAYS KNOW WHERE YOUR MOVING AVERAGES ARE BEFORE YOU TAKE A TRADE!
Me personally I only use 20,50,200.. EMA and SMA.
I say this because the area of spy 572-577 has a powering of moving averages on both weekly and daily time frames
If spy breaks below 570 then we are headed straight for this box.
547-550
Below that and it's death for the bulls.. if it bounces there then we'll see what happens
Weekly RSI same as NYA .. at resistance
So here's a 4 hr chart..
As you can see, rising wedge..
But pay attention to the yellow trendline resistance. That range is 590-584..
A open below 582 and it's a short to 575..
A open above 593 and it's one last long to 600 before the big short
585-592 is choppy and I wouldn't trade it
Like I said earlier, you normally never see price intra day slide below the daily 200sma .. so if they are going to break below 575 this week ( I believe) then they will do it pre market.
I don't think this week will be all doom and gloom. Why? Because of NQ 4hr moneyflow.. it's gotten too oversold so they are likely to have a tech pop this week probably Tues or wed which I think will be your opportunity to position short
