SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Testing Key Resistance Levels - Weekly ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) is currently attempting an uptrend rally, bouncing up from the April 7th 2025 support level ($488) and weekly support trendline.
The current resistance price level is $569 above, and the support price level below is $555.
SPY price needs to remain and close above $522 in May 2025 to maintain the current uptrend rally.
Resistance price targets above: $569, $578, $600, $610.
Support price targets below: $555, $542, $533, $512.
Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, government law changes, and consumer sentiment will continue to affect the stock price action of SPY.
Support price levels need to hold for an uptrend to continue in 2025.
ETF market
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UVXY shortVIX above regular range
After SPY quick down, VIX is high, there might be sideway consolidation.
Short entry 40
Stop 50,
Target 35
Risk management is much more important than a good entry point.
I am not a PRO trader.
In my trading plan, the Max Risk of each short term trade should be less than 1% of an account.
SPY QQQ / NQ/ES 9 Mayo 2025Liquidity Map Analysis – SPY/SPX/ES (May 9, 2025)
Published by: JCAVGROUP on TradingView
🔍 General Context
This chart is designed to identify liquidity zones, option walls, and high-probability price targets for SPY/SPX/ES based on SpotGamma levels and market structure. The analysis is intraday-focused using a 30-minute timeframe.
📊 Key Levels and Zones
Level Type Value (ES) Notes
Call Wall (Max 2) 575 Strong resistance
Call Wall (Max 1) 572 Major liquidity wall, strong rejection area
Call Wall (1) 570 Short-term resistance
Put Wall (1) 565 Pivot level for bullish or bearish bias
Put Wall (2) 562 Support zone
Put Wall (3) 560 Major support / buyer interest
Vol Trigger 567 Momentum pivot point
RB Zone (Range Bound) 564.14–568 Decision zone, watch for breakout/rejection
1 Day Est Move ±11 pts Implied move for the day
📈 Scenario Projections
🔺 Bullish Scenarios:
Break above 568 → Target 570 →
Target 1 Long: 570 → 571.5 ES
Continuation through 570 →
Target 2 Long: 573.5–5740 ES
Full extension above 572 Call Wall →
Target 3 Long: 571.90–575.5 ES
⚠️ This is a high liquidity zone and potential reversal area (Possible Selling Zone)
🔻 Bearish Scenarios:
Failure at RB-Head (568) or rejection from 570 →
Revisit 565–564 zone
Target 1 Short: 562 or 5660 ES
Break below 562 Put Wall →
Target 2 Short: 560 or 5635 ES
🟩 This overlaps with a Possible Buying Zone, look for reversals or accumulation
🧠 Tactical Insights
Above 568: Bias shifts to bullish, especially on strong volume confirmation above 570.
Between 564–568: Range-bound, chop zone; wait for structure to develop.
Below 562: Bearish breakdown, potential sweep into liquidity at 560.
📌 Visual Key Zones
🔴 Red Zone (571.90–575.5) → Possible Selling Zone
🟡 Yellow Zone (564.14–568) → Decision / Neutral Zone
🟢 Green Zone (560–562) → Possible Buying Zone
Spy $550 This WeekUpdated SPY Weekly Forecast Range (as of $563)
Scenario Projected Close Range Probability
Bull Case $570 – $577 40%
Base Case $558 – $566 45%
Bear Case $545 – $555 15%
🔼 Bull Case Summary ($570–$577)
Conditions:
CPI data comes in cool (Thursday)
PLTR, AMD, DIS all beat and guide higher
Fed speakers lean dovish
Mega caps like NVDA & MSFT fuel rotation higher
SPY clears the psychological $565 resistance
Fuel:
Short gamma squeeze above $565
Call wall shift to $570/$575
Sector momentum in tech, financials, and discretionary
⚖️ Base Case Summary ($558–$566)
Conditions:
CPI is in-line
Earnings are mixed (1 or 2 misses)
Market digests prior rally, stays elevated
No breakout — just holding range
Behavior:
SPY consolidates around 8-day EMA and VWAP
Buyers hesitate near $565–$567
Light-volume pullbacks to $560 or $558 get bought
🔻 Bear Case Summary ($545–$555)
Conditions:
CPI comes in hot → rate cut expectations fall
Key earnings disappoint (PLTR, AMD, DIS miss or lower guide)
Yields spike, market pulls back fast
SPY loses 8-day EMA, dips toward 21-day EMA near $548
Fuel:
IV spike → volatility unwind
Bond market pressure → liquidity stress
Rotation into defensive sectors (XLU, XLP)
🔍 Supporting Indicators (Real-Time Drivers to Watch):
CPI – Thursday, May 9
10-Year Yield reaction post-CPI
Earnings releases (especially PLTR Monday + AMD Tuesday)
Options flow around $565, $570 strikes
Volatility Index (VIX): Holding under 14 = bullish, over 15 = caution
Be carefull, nice monthly candel, but dangerous daily and weeklyTo be honest, I have to say I'm a bit disappointed. If you look at the candle on a monthly chart, you'll see that it looks great. But on a daily chart, we didn't manage to break and close above the SMA 200. I thought the market would break above SMA200 with a big, powerful move and close above. Instead of going up, we moved down, then went back up straight away. It doesn't look like there's enough power to move higher.
I'm not sure what's going to happen, but I'm most worried about the weekly chart. As you can see, there can be a H&S pattern in developing. I'd love to see a surprise if we close below this week's candle next week. As you can see, there's a big green candle followed by a candle with a long upper and lower shadow and a small body. It's pretty clear that there are issues to be addressed if we're going to move up the ranks. So, if the market closes below this week's low next week, I'll be short because of the H&S pattern.
$SPY Its time according to my chart.. Lower high is the trigger I posted two charts for reference to the current situation. With a historic rally right into resistance and a fractal analog that matches, I have no choice but to remain bearish. These are my studies. Sometimes Impatience leads to things like Impulsive Entries and Exits, Revenge Trading, and at times, even Blown Accounts. Times like those should be followed by a regroup and a reset.
The 9 Count Sell Signal Triggered with a Reset is on Technical Inidators for a move lower. I do believe we are going to consolidate for several days but nothing further than the second week of May. Today Bulls got extremely bullish and still were not able to hold the highs into the close. The test of the 200 day SMA was rejected and several days near these leveles whether above or below, would prove the downside move more possible. The monthly on SPX is my biggest indicator, personally. If it follows the pattern I'm following then after a test of the 10WMA, we will roll back over on the next 10 day candle. The market ran through a death cross without stopping, which if anyone were to study for several minutes, they would be able to see any first attempt at a death cross to the upsde is almost immediately met with a selloff back to the lows of the breakout move. Good luck everybody.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 9, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 9, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🚢 Maersk Adjusts Outlook Amid U.S.-China Trade Tensions
Global shipping giant Maersk reported better-than-expected Q1 profits but lowered its forecast for global container volume growth, citing uncertainties from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. CEO Vincent Clerc highlighted that while U.S.-China shipping volumes have declined, the rest of the world remains stable.
🇺🇸 Fed Officials to Speak Post-Meeting
Following the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, eight Fed officials are scheduled to make public appearances today. Investors will be keenly observing their remarks for insights into future monetary policy directions.
📈 Markets React to Trade Developments
U.S. markets closed higher yesterday, with the Dow gaining 250 points, as investors responded to President Trump's encouragement to 'buy stocks now' amidst ongoing trade negotiations.
🛠️ U.S.-U.K. Trade Deal Finalized
The U.S. and the U.K. have agreed on a trade deal involving reduced tariffs and adjustments to digital services taxes. This development is expected to influence sectors ranging from automotive to digital services.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, May 9:
3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit (March)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Major Correction in Progress🔎 Detailed Technical Analysis
This chart displays a full 5-wave impulsive Elliott structure ending in an expanding wedge, a classic sign of exhaustion. After peaking near $493, the price broke the primary bullish channel and began a significant ABC corrective wave.
🧱 Why Renko? Filter Out the Noise
Renko charts remove candle noise and highlight pure price movement, making it easier to identify major structures and key levels with precision.
📉 Corrective Structure and Forecast
✅ Wave 5 completed inside a strong resistance zone ($493.68).
🔻 Channel break confirms structural weakness and trend shift.
🔁 Currently forming a complex ABC correction, with wave B unfolding and wave C yet to develop.
📌 Key Support Zones to Watch
🟠 $400.44 – Confluence of a 3-month support zone + 50% daily Fibonacci retracement.
🔵 $370.56 – The 61.8% Fibonacci level, a high-probability target for the end of wave C.
Both areas are prime for potential institutional buying and trend reversal.
🎯 Technical Outlook
Price action suggests the bearish bias remains until the corrective structure completes. The $370–$400 range could provide a high-quality long entry opportunity if a bullish reversal confirms.
🧭 Action Plan (Not Financial Advice)
Watch for failure near $493 to reinforce bearish setup.
Monitor volume and structure near $400 / $370.
Reversal patterns in this zone could trigger a new impulsive leg up.
📣 What’s your take?
Are we still inside wave B, or has wave C already started?
650 HANDLE on the Q's (QQQ ETF "Nasdaq index ETF")Trade deal optimism is becoming realityn and federal budget actualy shrinking thanks tyoi DOGE department effords to clean up and modernize the system, has been a boon for Trumps first 100 days as oil prices drop and war is evaporating the world is looking very syncronized in spite all the overblkown negative press from mainstreen traditional media may be a buy the dip scenario that the media does not want to admit. This condition is called the "pain-trade" as most retail investors are now bearish and "everyones on one side of the boat" Insitutioins know this and want then to sell ad depressed relative prices. Everyone knows inheritly fairness and fair trade is a reciprocal business and Trump acting as obligated fiduciary professioinalism you would expect from a professioinal advisor who put his clients interest first. This is a fiduciary. And for too long now this has not been honored by many of those across the board in government to the point of agregiouusness, is beyond absurd and the justice department is now led by Trumps appointies who , ironically, themselves, had be treated unfairly and chalenged with "lawfair" using the porocess for thier own suboptimizatioins is a breach of fiduciary duty and they should you thier own personal tme and resources to pursue thier own interested (not when they are at work using govt tax paid resources inappropriately). With AI now oin the table and an already steady overall economy (accord to J. Powell the other day). The strong dolarr from all the inflation has wreaked havick on Emerging Markets, the Asian Trade, Europoe and the outrsagious spending has upset the World Bank Leaders and EM central bankers as strong dollar cuts heavy into thier already this scale profit markgins. By working these trade deals the dollar should weaken in order for the mechanics of it all to work. Interest rate on the 10yr n
Update On My Positions And On The Bear Market RallyYes guys bear market rally she gonna fail
can we higher yes 585 but lets see Tomorrow
Fed day I don't see him raising or cutting
Thanks to all that follow and all the kind words
please let me know u don't understand anything
I will try my best to help. I hope the vol thing helped some one vol everything IMHO
Double Top Alert on $FNGS!🟠 Double Top Alert on AMEX:FNGS 🟠
Price just got rejected at the 100% Fibonacci extension around $56 — a textbook resistance level.
Bearish confirmation could send us down to fill the gap at $48.35 👇
⚠️ Watch $54.30 as the critical neckline!
📉 Rejection + Gap = Potential Opportunity
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Finding Confirmation & MoreThis video will become the start of more advanced training videos to help all of you understand how to use your own skills/tools/resources to try to find the best opportunities.
As I state in the video, I will never tell you what to trade. EVER!
It is unethical and illegal. I'm not a broker or financial advisor.
I'm a software developer/trader and I like to try to unlock the secrets of the markets using price action and inference models (and more).
This video teaches you how to use my CRASH INDEX and the SuperTrend indicator as a way to develop better allocation and risk protection skills for your own trading.
Let's face it - trading is about developing a process to consistently GET PROFITS. It doesn't really matter if they are 10%, 20%, 30% or more. If you are able to consistently execute good trades and PULL PROFITS - you will grow your account- right?
So stop swinging for the fences. Learn to develop skills that keep you on the right side of these big trends.
It's not that hard.
In this video I try to teach you to use Daily, Weekly, 240 min, 120 min, 60 min, 10 min, and 5 min data using my Crash Index to help you learn to trade the SPY/QQQ.
The Crash Index is suited for the SPY/QQQ in most cases. There are instances where the Crash Index may reflect some type of counter-trend - so remember to use Fibonacci Price Theory on the underlying symbol (SPY or QQQ) as final confirmation.
And, remember to try to understand primary trending (longer-term trending) vs. short-term trending. If you are going to try to trade a "counter-trend" swing - cut your trade allocation down by 50-60% (or more). Counter-trend swings are usually going against the major/primary trend.
Anyway, watch this video once or twice. I hope it helps all of you understand and build your own skills to trade more efficiently.
The trick is to get it down to a process where you know how to allocate your capital and you know how to confirm/invalidate trade setups/triggers.
Once you get to that point - you turn into a trading machine. The only step of the process that is really difficult to handle/manage is the BOOK IT phase. If you book your profits early - you may feel bad about leaving profits out there you could have had. But, a PROFIT is a PROFIT.
And the goal of trading it to PROFIT more than you LOSE - right?
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
URNM eyes on $36.07: Golden Genesis to Mark Bottom or End BounceURNM trying to recover from a strong downtrend.
Currently testing a Golden Genesis fib at $36.07
Look for a Break-and-Retest to mark the Bottom.
.
Last Plot that called the TOP:
Also a Golden Genesis that marked the top.
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Beyond The Plan Your Trade Videos - Trading Algos/ConfirmationMany of you follow my morning Plan Your Trade videos - and I thank you for your loyalty and dedication.
The Plan Your Trade videos are specifically deigned to highlight my SPY/GOLD Cycle Patterns and, over the course of the past 9+ months, I've started trying to teach all of you Fibonacci Price Theory and the concept of the Excess Phase Peak pattern (and Cradle Pattern).
My goal is to teach you to learn to understand price structures, setups, and actions as a way to try to advance your technical analysis/trading skills.
There are so many others out there trying to teach you to use indicators and other types of analysis to try to identify trading opportunities/setups. Some work, some don't.
Technical analysis using Indicators, Elliot Wave, or other forms of predictive analysis/AI are only about 50-75% accurate at best (IMO). Nothing is 100% perfect.
After 35+ years of trying to unlock the secrets of price action to devise a 100% accurate trading system, the closest I have come is a system that generates about 65-75% accuracy - but still manages to take some losses.
I do believe I can find that 100% accurate system (hopefully before I die). But the reality is it is almost impossible to accurately predict price movement 10-20+ days in advance with any degree of accuracy.
Over the past few weeks/months, we've seen the SPY/QQQ move through various stages/phases.
Over the past 4+ weeks I've been warning of the broad-consolidation phase that is currently setup on the SPY/QQQ. I believe this huge consolidation range is very dangerous for traders and that extreme volatility will create lots of risk/opportunities for those capable of trading within this range.
But, at the same time, failing to take advantage of tools to help traders hedge, daytrade, or otherwise balance allocation/risk levels is something I really don't talk about much.
I like to say "I do the research - you make all the trading decisions".
This video highlights some of my advanced algos and how I use them, in conjunction with the EPP and other patterns, to try to gauge market opportunities vs. risks.
Trust me. I've learned not to GO BIG on trades over the past 20+ years because I've blown up a few accounts trying to get greedy.
Right now, I focus on trying to be on the right side of trends (if possible) and to balance my portfolio in 10-20% increments.
For example, if I believe GOLD is going to move higher, I may start out with a 5-10% allocation into GLD or UGL (start small). If that trade works and Gold starts to make a move higher, I may try to add a bit more to that initial trade. If it doesn't work out, I may try to add a little bit more at a better entry price level - but I focus on not letting that trade occupy more than 15-20% of my total portfolio.
That way, if I take a loss on the trade, it is a small loss compared to the overall account capital.
If I take a 50% loss on a 20% allocation - that is only a 10% loss on the TOTAL ACCOUNT SIZE.
Get it?
So, the reason for this video is to show you how you can still use technical strategies/indicators to try to confirm you intraday trading and swing trading opportunities. I like to use the SuperTrend strategy on charts to identify general trending.
I'm urging you to consider my Plan Your Trade videos as "one component" of your skillset. You need to use your own skills/techniques/analysis to try to manage risks vs. opportunities as you continue to trade.
I highlight some of my algos because they become another "component" of my analysis when I'm trading. If I don't see broad market capitulation related to Daily trending - then I try to stay VERY CAUTIOUS. If I do see some capitulation within my algos suggesting the markets are starting to trend upward or downward, then I may try to take advantage of that opportunity.
Ideally, the process of trading is to use everything you like and can rely on to help confirm you decision-making. Then, fall back to a efficient trade allocation process that attempts to limit your risk level.
The biggest mistake I see people make is to go ALL IN or TOO HEAVY into a trade thinking they can't lose. Yes, you can lose. So can I.
That's why it is important to contain risks and protect capital at all times.
I'll try to create another video showing you how I use the SuperTrend indicator to help confirm some of my intraday analysis for trades.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
The Daily 200 MA Is The KeyRegarding how price action will play out over these next couple months, there's 3 likely scenarios, and it involves how price will interaction with the daily 200 MA:
BLUE: Price makes a convincing break above the daily 200 MA, retests it, and then surges onward, continuing the long-term bullish trend.
PURPLE: Price falsely breaks above the daily 200 MA and tests the 600 psychological level, rejects it, and falls back below the daily 200 MA and retests it, thus creating a H&S pattern and confirming the continuation of the bearish trend.
RED: Price rejects the daily 200 MA, and continues the bearish trend, ultimately forming a new low.