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Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 16–20, 2025 🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 16–20, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Powell Expresses Caution The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50%, though Chair Powell likely won’t provide fresh guidance. Markets see limited upside without stronger inflation or growth cues 💱 Dollar Strengthens on Geopolitical Risk The U.S. dollar rose slightly as investors flocked to safe assets amid global tensions with Iran. Treasury yields eased slightly on risk-off flows 🛢️ Oil Near Multi-Week Highs on Mideast & OPEC Dynamics Oil held near seven-week highs (~$67–70/barrel), buoyed by Iran-Israel tensions and OPEC+ output hikes (411K bpd added from May–July), offset by demand concerns . ⚠️ G7 Summit Faces Heightened Stakes G7 finance ministers meet in Canada under pressure from Middle East escalation. Watch for policy coordination and commentary on trade, inflation, and global economic risks . 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Monday, June 16 Regular markets open after Juneteenth holiday Quiet day; oil & geopolitical headlines dominate 📅 Tuesday, June 17 8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales (May): Signals consumer spending strength/duration 8:30 AM ET – CPI (May): Confirms inflation trend post-CPI cooler reading 10:00 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (May): Gauges housing market demand Unexpected Tesla Robotaxi Demo (Austin): Watch for surprise developments this week 📅 Wednesday, June 18 Global Central Bank Day: FOMC, BoE, BoJ policy updates; U.S. Fed will most likely hold steady 📅 Thursday, June 19 – Juneteenth Holiday – U.S. markets closed 📅 Friday, June 20 8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (May): Measures U.S. housing activity 10:00 AM ET – Leading Economic Indicators (May): Early snapshot of economic momentum ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
$SPY Watchlist Plan: Week of 6/17Watchlist Plan: Week of 6/17 Stock Near All-Time High Approaching ATH at 613.23 — key pivot zone Break and hold above: Look for calls targeting momentum continuation (e.g., 620, 630 psychological levels) Rejection off ATH: Look for puts targeting a retracement toward 599, then 568 Retracement and Support Zones 599: Micro support on smaller timeframes (15m/1h). Watch for intraday bounce or breakdown. 568: Key downside target if rejection at ATH confirms and 599 fails. Consider swing puts toward this level. Also monitor the 585–590 range for potential consolidation or minor support. Game Plan Triggers Bullish confirmation: Clean break and hold above 613.23 with strong volume Market-wide risk-on tone (SPY, QQQ green) Bearish setup: Strong rejection at or below ATH Market-wide pullback or macro weakness (especially in tech or consumer sectors) Catalysts June 17 (Monday): Retail Sales Report — gauge of consumer strength June 18 (Tuesday): Unemployment Claims — snapshot of labor market health Strong data may fuel market optimism Weak data could tilt market bearish Additional Notes Watch for volume divergence near ATH — breakout with low volume can trap longs Use pre-market action to frame bias: gap up with follow-through = strength; gap up followed by fade = weakness Keep an eye on VIX and bond yields for macro pressure indicators
AMEX:SPYLong
by Ubaidy100
SPY Technical Analysis - Jun 16⏱️ 1‑Hour Chart Overview Key Zones * Support: $597–$601 — built on put-gamma support * Resistance: $605–$607 — topped by call-gamma walls Bias: Cautiously bullish — awaiting confirmation above $600–601 Trade Idea: * Structure: Bull call spread (600/605 strikes) * Targets: * T1: $605 (initial gamma cap) * T2: $607 (upper gamma wall) * Invalidation: Break decisively below $595 Management: * Entry: Buy near $600–601 with bullish candle and supportive volume * Scaling: Start small and layer in if price holds * Exit: * Take partial profits at $605 * Trail to $607 * Exit if SPY drops below $595 Why It Works: Gamma flows from option expiries tend to provide momentum near the spread’s strikes, and the debit structure defines both risk and reward. ⏳ 15‑Minute Chart (Intraday Entry) Setup Window: Zooming in for precise entry within 1‑hour framework What to Observe 1. Pullback to $600–601 * Look for a bullish reversal candle (hammer, engulfing) on 15‑m * Ideally, with increasing volume 2. Confirmation Signal * Break above the high of that reversal candle * Volume support confirms genuine demand 3. Momentum Alignment * Pair with an intraday oscillator (e.g., Muscle mover, RSI rising) * Candles should show higher lows or extended wick above support 15‑Minute Trade Rules * Entry: Market or limit buy on a 15‑m candle closing above reversal high (~$601) * Stop: Under that candle’s low (e.g., ~$599.50) * Profit Scaling: * Partial de‑risk at ~$605 * Full exit planned at ~$607 🚦 Multi‑Timeframe Strategy Summary 1‑Hour: Macro bias and strike framework
15‑Min: Precision entry zone & risk control
Spread Trade: Leverages GEX structure for momentum capture Risk Defined: Debit known, stops clear
Upside Potential: Push toward gamma-neutralizing walls
Flow Edge: Option hedging dynamics predominantly active around spread levels 🧠 Watchlist * Price behavior near $600–601 on 15‑m * Volume surge with bullish candle * Macro drivers: Fed noise, SPX futures action, sector rotation * Shifts in implied volatility that may affect spread pricing Trade with discipline — defined risk, entry precision, steady management.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. All trading involves risk; do your own due diligence.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
6
$SPY – Bearish Momentum Meets Spiral Timing🌀 AMEX:SPY – Spiral Timing, Macro Tension, and Bearish Momentum Brewing Not financial advice. Short-term sentiment shifted bearish. I’ve been tracking AMEX:SPY using both Fibonacci retracements and Fib spirals across the daily and weekly timeframes, and we’re now at a critical inflection zone. My sentiment has shifted more cautiously bearish in the short term, while acknowledging upside remains intact on the longer timeframes. 🔍 Macro Backdrop: Pressure Building CPI Data (May) came in at 2.4%, slightly higher than April’s 2.3%, but still below forecast — showing inflation is sticky but not accelerating. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran flared again over the weekend, adding risk-off pressure to already fragile sentiment. Market volatility remains high, with trillions of dollars swinging across a narrow window — validating shorter Fib cycles and accelerated price exhaustion. 🧭 Daily Chart Analysis: December 2024 High → April 2025 Low I used a bearish Fib retracement from the December 2024 highs to the April 2025 lows. SPY has now retraced nearly 100% of that drop, currently hovering between the 0.786 and 0.886 retracement levels — which often act as exhaustion zones in corrective rallies. The Fib spiral from the April low shows we’ve lost the initial vertical trendline that marked the recovery leg — a shift in momentum tone. MACD has remained flat for 16 sessions, with a bearish divergence confirmed on Friday (6/13/25). Momentum, which briefly turned positive on Thursday, flipped sharply back negative by week’s end. 📆 Weekly Chart Structure: March 2020 → Feb 2025 The weekly spiral, drawn from the March 2020 low to the February 2025 high, reflects a similar pattern: → Price is moving beyond the arc and approaching the vertical time marker, a zone where reversals or expansions often occur. Long-term trend remains bullish, but short-term action suggests compression ahead of a possible pullback. 🔥 Spiral Interpretation Reminder: The Fib spiral doesn’t predict direction — it identifies time-based pressure points. When price crosses the arc or vertical band, volatility often follows. 🎯 Key Trade Levels: Breakdown Watch: → Close below $595, then $587 could trigger downside toward $560 (0.618) and $545 (0.5) levels from the retracement Breakout Watch: → A confirmed breakout above $609 (full retrace from the Fib) would invalidate the short-term bear thesis and resume bullish continuation 🤔 Positioning Outlook: I’m tactically bearish here. The technicals show: Momentum divergence Fib exhaustion Spiral confluence Macro pressure mounting I don’t think the long-term trend is broken — but we’re entering a time window for volatility, and that often brings opportunity on both sides. Short setups may offer better risk/reward right now if we see confirmation. Would love to hear your bias here — bear trap brewing or topping process?
AMEX:SPYShort
by Spaceforcex
Top 10 Small-Cap Biotechs with Upcoming Catalysts for 2025Here are 10 small cap biotech stocks with notable upcoming catalysts in 2025—ranging from trial readouts and FDA decisions to pivotal data and corporate milestones: ________________________________________ 🔬 Top 10 Small-Cap Biotechs with Upcoming Catalysts for 2025 1. Crinetics Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: CRNX) • Catalyst: FDA PDUFA deadline for paltusotine (oral acromegaly treatment) expected by September 25, 2025. • Focused on endocrine diseases and advancing pipeline beyond acromegaly (en.wikipedia.org). Stock market information for Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Inc (CRNX) • Crinetics Pharmaceuticals Inc is a equity in the USA market. • The price is 32.33 USD currently with a change of -0.73 USD (-0.02%) from previous close. • The latest open price was 33.1 USD and the intraday volume is 420639. • The intraday high is 33.34 USD and the intraday low is 32.32 USD. • The latest trade time is Wednesday, June 11, 23:45:00 +0300. ________________________________________ 2. Viking Therapeutics • Catalyst: Late-stage trial start for injectable weight-loss drug (GLP 1/GIP); mid-stage data readout for oral candidate due in 2025 (barrons.com). • Strong analyst sentiment: Jefferies forecasts ~223% upside ________________________________________ 3. Insmed (NASDAQ: INSM) • Catalyst: Phase III/inhalable powder treprostinil palmitil for pulmonary arterial hypertension; recent results exceeded expectations; full Phase III data due in 2025 ________________________________________ 4. Kymera Therapeutics • Catalyst: Phase I for KT 621 (oral STAT6 degrader for dermatitis/asthma); next-stage readouts expected late 2025–early 2026 • Shares rose ~50% on initial results; further trials underway ________________________________________ 5. Arcutis Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ: ARQT) • Catalyst: Technical breakout potential near $17.75; continued quarterly readouts with rising sales (33% last quarter) • Upcoming investor calls/publication strategies may accelerate momentum. ________________________________________ 6. Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RYTM) • Catalyst: With FDA-approved Imcivree for genetic obesity, further label expansion or mid-to-late-stage trial results anticipated in 2025 • Institutional buying trends and revenue growth support upcoming readouts . ________________________________________ 7. BeOne Medicines (Ticker: ONC) • Catalyst: Early human data in solid tumor oncology; multiple upcoming trials in 2025 . • Q1 2025 marked first profit; strong institutional support ________________________________________ 8. Mesoblast Ltd & Capricor Therapeutics • Catalyst: Stem-cell therapies targeting GvHD, heart failure, Duchenne muscular dystrophy—key FDA decisions expected in H2 2025 • Maxim Group flags pivotal year for approvals and stock catalysts (marketwatch.com). ________________________________________ 9. Acelyrin (NASDAQ: SLRN) • Catalyst: Phase III results for lonigutamab in thyroid eye disease; shareholder vote on Alumis merger around May 2025 • Merger closing and clinical readouts may drive volatility . ________________________________________ 10. ADC Therapeutics & Foghorn Therapeutics & Pyxis Oncology • Catalysts: Multiple preclinical/early clinical updates presented at AACR (April 2025) o ADC Therapeutics (ADCT): Readouts on 6 ADC programs (Claudin 6, NaPi2b, etc.). o Foghorn (FHTX): Preclinical updates on EP300, FHD609, FHD909. o Pyxis Oncology (PYXS): Phase I ADC and Siglec 15 antibody data. ________________________________________ 🔎 How to Monitor These Catalysts • FDA PDUFA dates (Crinetics, Mesoblast/Capricor, Viking) • Trial readouts/ASC presentations (Kymera, Insmed, ADC Therapeutics, Foghorn, Pyxis) • M&A/news events (BeOne, Acelyrin merger) ________________________________________ 📊 Summary Table Ticker Company Upcoming Catalyst Timeframe CRNX Crinetics PDUFA paltusotine NDA Sep 25, 2025 Viking Viking Therapeutics Injectable Phase III, oral Phase II data From mid-2025 INSM Insmed PAH inhalable Phase III readout Mid-to-late 2025 Kymera Kymera Therapeutics Dermatitis/asthma Phase I → Phase II Late 2025 – 2026 ARQT Arcutis Biotherapeutics Continued quarterly updates Throughout 2025 RYTM Rhythm Pharmaceuticals Label expansion/trial updates 2025 ONC BeOne Medicines Solid tumor trial data 2025 Mesoblast/Capricor Stem-cell stocks FDA decisions H2 2025 SLRN Acelyrin EMA/merger vote + Phase III readout May–Q3 2025 ADCT/FHTX/PYXS AACR presenters Academic readouts on multiple programs April 2025 ________________________________________ ⚠️ A Word of Caution Small-cap biotech involves high volatility—catalyst events often drive sharp price swings, both up and down. Thorough due diligence is essential.
NASDAQ:IBBLong
by ProjectSyndicate
31
QQQ - Weekly Volatility PotentialGood Morning -- Last week we reviewed the potential of the S&P 500, this week let us take a look at the potential perspective of NASDAQ:QQQ . IV (17.97%) entering the week is trending 31% IVp on the year and has been gradually lowering as price action grinds higher and out of corrective territory -- This is +2.61% more volatile than near-term trending values of HV10 (15.36%) and only -0.57% under HV21 (18.54%), our monthly trending values. Looking towards next week, I expect the CBOE:VIX to continually soften IV values as the broader markets push towards all-time highs this week. NASDAQ:QQQ historical values are coiling to where we will soon need a volatility spike, but not just yet -- my weekly price target here is simple (HV10 upper implied range) $539.44 with wicking potential above to monthly trends (HV21 upper implied ranges) at $541.42. Only time will tell, we can't control the markets but we sure can manage our own risk within them. Remember to always be hedged and come back to join me next weekend as we review the charts for what happened VS our expectation! CHEERS
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
4
BITx - Weekly Volatility PotentialGood Morning! Here is my weekly perspective for CBOE:BITX -- From when we reviewed last weekend, IV (84.60%) has lowered -2.39% and is entering the week with a 2% IVp. We have been in this pattern of rotating IV and Bi-Weekly volatility trends back and forth as HV10 (62.69%) entering the week has increased +2.47% from it's respective level entering last week. The prediction of what is to happen is contracting as what is actually happening in the short-term is trending up. Bi-Weekly and Monthly volatility values after being 100% coiled and both putting in new yearly lows a month ago are starting to unwind as they create distance from those exact lows. Could long-term trending means be on the horizon with quarterly values? Bi-weekly will eventually find it's way back there, question is when. Our best advantage, is to continue to track the data and ebb and flow with the markets and macro news. Looking towards this next week, Our HV10 (62.69%) trending values are still contracting under our monthly HV21 (68.45%) trends, but IV (84.60%) although lowering, is reflecting expansion. There is a premium capture past stated IV if we can find means regression back to HV63 (99.07%), as what is happening will expand past what is predicted to happen. As of now this value is 14.97% and equates to a premium capture $8.24 or $88.24 per lot or contract. Again, when IV contracts chasing HV10, but it expands to HV63, we look to collect the premium value difference with the move. Only time will tell, I think we will see another volume push into this week -- Remember to always be hedged and come back to join me next weekend as we review the charts for what happened VS our expectation! CHEERS
CBOE:BITXLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
SPY (S&P500) - Price Testing Support Trendline - Daily ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has just closed below $600 and is currently under a support trendline. If price cannot breakout above the $600 and $605 resistance level this month, a pullback could occur down to the support zone. SPY price could potentially pullback to various levels of support due to: -USA domestic conflict -International military conflicts -Technical chart bearish divergence -USA federal reserve interest rate news -Government and corporate news Support Levels: $595, $590, $585, $580. Resistance Levels: $600, $605, $610, $615. The 50EMA/200EMA Golden Cross is still on-going, and support prices of $580 and $568 have yet to be tested significantly.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
Israel VS Iran War: Oil Spike!Tensions between Israel and Iran have escalated dramatically, with both nations engaging in direct military strikes. Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile factories, and military personnel. In response, Iran retaliated with missile attacks on Israel, hitting Tel Aviv and wounding civilians The conflict stems from long-standing hostilities, particularly over Iran’s nuclear program, which Israel views as an existential threat. The situation has drawn international attention, with the United States distancing itself from Israel’s actions while maintaining strategic interests in the region. The escalation has raised concerns about a wider regional war, with analysts warning of unintended consequences and further retaliation. The global markets have also reacted, with oil prices surging amid uncertainty.
AMEX:XOPLong
by Trading-Capital