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Gold Trend Analysis and StrategiesGold bottomed out and rebounded on Friday, forming a strong breakthrough to test the high point of 2631, and closed above the 2620 mark. The daily line ended the weak and volatile downward structure in the first half of last week. At present, the MA10 daily moving average is suppressed at the 2646 line, and the 5-day moving average is at the 2614 line. The price is running in the middle and lower track of the Bollinger band. The short-term four-hour moving average opened upward and re-stood on the middle track of the Bollinger band. After the intraday rhythm correction, go long at low prices and be bullish! Gold was not strong after the opening of the Asian session. It is too early to say that gold has reversed now. Gold has begun to fluctuate. Gold has not had a unilateral market for the time being. Gold sells high and buys low at the beginning of the week. Pay attention to the resistance of last Friday's high point 2632 on the top of gold. If it cannot break through, then gold will continue to be short under pressure at 2632 in the short term. If it breaks through 2632, gold will pay attention to the resistance near 2650. Pay attention to the support of the 2600 line on the bottom first. If gold does not break 2600, then gold can go long in the short term to see a rebound. First support: 2612, second support: 2600, third support: 2587 First resistance: 2632, second resistance: 2646, third resistance: 2658 Trading strategy: BUY: 2605-2608 SELL: 2632-2635
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jun-GoldAnalyst
Market Analysis: Crude Oil Price Faces HurdlesMarket Analysis: Crude Oil Price Faces Hurdles Crude oil prices are now struggling to clear the $70.00 and $70.50 resistance levels. Important Takeaways for Oil Prices Analysis Today - Crude oil prices extended downsides below the $70.00 support zone. - A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $70.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen. Oil Price Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to continue higher above $70.50 against the US Dollar. The price formed a short-term top and started a fresh decline below $70.00. There was a steady decline below the $69.40 pivot level. The bears even pushed the price below $69.00 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the price tested the $68.35 zone. The recent swing low was formed near $68.36, and the price is now correcting losses. There was a minor move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.50 swing high to the $68.36 low. On the upside, immediate resistance is near the $70.00 level. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $70.00. The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $70.50 swing high to the $68.36 low. The next resistance is near the $70.50 level. The main resistance is near a trend line at $70.90. A clear move above the $70.90 zone could send the price toward $72.00. The next key resistance is near $72.50. If the price climbs further higher, it could face resistance near $74.20. Any more gains might send the price toward the $75.00 level. Immediate support is near the $69.40 level. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is near $68.85. If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $68.35. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $66.00 support zone. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/51]: Bearish Trend StrengthensSGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) fell last week, closing USD 3.82/ton lower by 20/Dec (Fri). SGX IO Futures opened at USD 104.45/ton on 16/Dec (Mon) and closed at USD 100.63/ton on 20/Dec (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 105.80/ton on 17/Dec (Tue) and a low of USD 99.80/ton on 20/Dec (Fri). It traded in a range of USD 6/ton during the week, which was wider than the prior week. Prices tested the pivot point of USD 104.60/ton at the start of the week and closed below the S1 point of USD 101.85/ton. Volume peaked on 19/Dec (Thu), as iron ore prices declined by 0.9%, as the PBoC kept its loan prime rates unchanged. Iron Ore Fundamentals in Summary Iron ore prices declined for the week ending 20/Dec, following the PBoC's decision to keep loan prime rates unchanged on 19/Dec. Earlier optimism over China’s 2025 monetary policy easing plans faded after the rate pause dampened market sentiment. Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources said in a quarterly outlook that iron ore prices will average USD 80/ton in 2025 and then drop to USD 76/ton in 2026. With the US dollar touching a two-year high, Iron Ore prices are turning bearish with markets awaiting China’s next move to support its economy. China's port iron ore stockpiles inched up 0.01% to 145.85 million tons in the week ending 20/Dec, according to MMI data . Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Jan contract traded 18.8% below its last 5-year average (USD 123.99/ton). Short-Term Moving Averages Indicate Reversal in Bullish Trend The 9-day moving average crossed the 21-day moving average from above, culminating in a death cross on 20/Dec (Fri). This signals the potential onset of a bearish trend. Long-Term Averages Signal Potential Beginning of a Bearish Trend IO prices tested the 200-d SMA at the start of the week but sharply fell, closing below the 100-d SMA by the end of the week. This indicates the beginning of a bearish trend as prices fell below both the long-term moving averages. MACD Points to Growing Bearishness, RSI Inches Towards Oversold Territory The MACD indicates a growing bearish sentiment starting from 18/Dec. Meanwhile, the RSI is at 40.60 and is inching towards oversold territory treading below the midpoint, while the RSI-based moving average is at 51.90. Volatility Inched Down, Price Closed Below 23.6% Fibonacci Level Volatility declined moderately last week. Prices tested the 50% Fibonacci level at USD 105.4/ton at the start of the week but quickly declined in the week to close below the 23.6% Fibonacci level at USD 100.35/ton. Going forward, the 23.6% Fibonacci level will act as resistance while the 38.2% level at USD 103.15/ton will act as the support. Selling Pressure Intensified, Price Trading at Low Volume Nodes Selling pressure continues to dominate and has grown stronger since the start of December, according to the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) indicator. The price is trading at a relatively low-volume node. Price also closed the week below the lower Bollinger Band. Iron Ore Prices Likely to Fall in December Despite Seasonality Iron ore prices generally increase in December due to seasonal patterns that prompt restocking in anticipation of China's Lunar New Year, driven by higher demand for steel production. However, it looks like in December 2024, prices will likely decline. IO Futures Only Aggregate Exposure Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed money are net long with 124.7k and 26.6k lots across all futures expiries. Physical market participants and Others are net short with 110.1k and 41.2k lots across all futures expiries. Overall futures open interest as of 13th Dec 2024 stood at 1,259,936 lots. Source: SGX IO Futures & Options Aggregate Exposure Financial Institutions (FIs) and Managed money are net long with 121.5k and 37.1k lots across all futures & options expiries. Physical market participants and Others are net short with 117.6k and 41k lots across all futures & options expiries. Overall futures & options open interest as of 13th Dec 2024 stood at 1,565,080 lots. Source: SGX Historical Futures Aggregate Exposure by Market Participants Physical participants have switched from net long to net short over the last quarter. Managed Money has shifted from net short to net long. Financial Institutions continue to hold net long positions since the second quarter of this year. Source: SGX Hypothetical Trade Setup Despite expectations of seasonally strong demand ahead of the Lunar New Year, market sentiment for SGX Iron Ore remains bearish. China's sluggish economic recovery suggests a rebound may hinge on monetary policy easing in 2025. Additionally, technical indicators reinforce the bearish outlook, with prices falling below both short- and long-term moving averages. A short position on SGX Iron Ore could be a strategic way to express this view. We propose a hypothetical trade setup involving selling the SGX Iron Ore January Futures Contract at USD 102/ton, with a stop loss at USD 105/ton and a target price of USD 97/ton, yielding a reward-to-risk ratio of 1.67x. Each contract provides exposure to 100 tons of iron ore, resulting in a potential gain of USD 500/lot ((102 - 97) x 100) against a risk of USD 300/lot. This calculation excludes transaction costs, such as clearing broker and exchange fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,188/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,080/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEFX2024Short
by MintBulkCommods
Gold price trend analysisGold daily line maintains a short structure, and the continued rise of the US dollar index has a certain negative impact on the gold and silver markets. The daily line closed with a long upper shadow and a small positive, and the short-term chart four-hour roller coaster price continued to move down along the high and low points of the MA10-day moving average, and the price continued to run along the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands. The hourly chart Bollinger Bands opened downward, and the RSI indicator ran below the middle axis. Today's trading ideas remain unchanged, mainly rebounding high and high, and low-multiple short-term auxiliary. Gold 1-hour moving average is still short-term divergent arrangement, without any signs of turning, and there is still room for gold to go down. Gold did not stand firm at 2600 to close, and continued to sell at highs below 2613 today! First support: 2582, second support: 2572, third support: 2563 First resistance: 2605, second resistance: 2613, third resistance: 2628 Trading strategy: BUY:2583-2585 SELL:2611-2613
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Jun-GoldAnalyst
Dow Jones Trend Day Setup 5* OpportunitiesMy goal going forward into 2025 is to only trade the Parabolic Trend trades and to master them. They happen roughly 5-8 times per month. Just catching 1 of these per month is all I need. Using 3% risk per one of these setups can deliver 15-20% gains. The universal entry criteria is the 5 minute close back inside the 20sma. The timeframe for entries are either 1 hour before the open, the open, and 1 hour after the open. Profit targets are generally until the close or a range expansion target of 1-2 times the Asia/London box. Below are multiple charts of the same setup with the green box being the ideal entry. If I can only trade 1 trade PER MONTH, this is what I will focus on.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
1
Are the Bitcoin bulls and bears right?Bitcoin has been the top performing asset in the world and by far the greatest. With bitcoin attempting to be the world’s reserve asset, are the bulls accurate to say that 245K is the Top while the bulls are saying 85K is the Low? Both can be right, and there lies the confusion. Elliott wave enthusiast may say we’re in a fourth wave correction leading to the top of the market. The four wave may actually go as deep as 85k as the bears predict but may also be the wave leading into the top $245k as the bulls predict. Somewhere in between the two lies the answer.
CME:BTC1!Long
by ParabolicP
Decoding the BTC-ES Correlation During FOMC Meetings1. Introduction The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings are pivotal events that significantly impact global financial markets. Traders across asset classes closely monitor these meetings for insights into the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy, interest rates, and economic outlook. In this article, we delve into the correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) during FOMC meetings. Focusing on the window from one day prior to one day after each meeting, our findings reveal that BTC and ES exhibit a positive correlation 63% of the time. This relationship offers valuable insights for traders navigating these volatile periods. 2. The Significance of Correlations in Market Analysis Correlation is a vital tool in market analysis, representing the relationship between two assets. A positive correlation indicates that two assets move in the same direction, while a negative correlation implies they move in opposite directions. BTC and ES are particularly intriguing to study due to their distinct market segments—cryptocurrency and traditional equities. Observing how these two assets interact during FOMC meetings provides a window into macroeconomic forces that affect both markets. The key finding: BTC and ES are positively correlated 63% of the time around FOMC meetings. This suggests that, despite their differences, both markets often react similarly to macroeconomic developments during these critical periods. 3. Methodology and Data Overview To analyze the BTC-ES correlation, we focused on a specific timeframe: one day before to one day after each FOMC meeting. Daily closing prices for both assets were used to calculate correlations, providing a clear view of their relationship during these events. The analysis includes data from multiple FOMC meetings spanning several years. The accompanying charts—such as the correlation heatmap, table of BTC-ES correlations, and line chart—help visualize these findings, highlighting the periods of positive and negative correlation. Contract Specifications: o E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES): Contract Size: $50 x S&P 500 Index. Minimum Tick: 0.25 points, equivalent to $12.50. Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $15,500 (subject to change). o Bitcoin Futures (BTC): Contract Size: 5 Bitcoin. Minimum Tick: $5 per Bitcoin, equivalent to $25 per tick. Initial Margin Requirement: Approximately $112,000 (subject to change). These specifications highlight the differences in notional value and margin requirements, underscoring the distinct characteristics of each contract. 4. Findings: BTC and ES Correlations During FOMC Meetings The analysis reveals several noteworthy trends: Positive Correlations (63% of the time): During these periods, BTC and ES tend to move in the same direction, reflecting shared sensitivity to macroeconomic themes such as interest rate adjustments or economic projections. Negative Correlations: These occur sporadically, suggesting that, in certain scenarios, BTC and ES respond differently to FOMC announcements. 5. Interpretation: Why Do BTC and ES Correlate? The observed correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings can be attributed to several factors: Macro Sensitivity: Both BTC and ES are heavily influenced by macroeconomic variables such as interest rate decisions, inflation expectations, and liquidity changes. The FOMC meetings, being central to these narratives, often create synchronized market reactions. Institutional Adoption: The increasing participation of institutional investors in Bitcoin trading aligns its performance more closely with traditional risk assets like equities. This is evident during FOMC events, where institutional sentiment towards risk assets tends to align. Market Liquidity: FOMC meetings often drive liquidity shifts across asset classes. This can lead to aligned movement in BTC and ES as traders adjust their portfolios in response to policy announcements. This correlation provides traders with actionable insights into how these assets might react during future FOMC windows. 6. Forward-Looking Implications Understanding the historical correlation between BTC and ES during FOMC meetings offers a strategic edge for traders: Hedging Opportunities: Traders can use the BTC-ES relationship to construct hedging strategies, such as using one asset to offset potential adverse moves in the other. Volatility Exploitation: Positive correlation periods may signal opportunities for trend-following strategies, while negative correlation phases could favor pairs trading strategies. Risk-On/Risk-Off Cues: The alignment or divergence of BTC and ES can act as a barometer for market-wide sentiment, aiding decision-making in other correlated assets. Future FOMC events could present similar dynamics, and traders can leverage this data to refine their approach. 7. Risk Management Considerations While correlations provide valuable insights, they are not guaranteed to persist. Effective risk management is crucial, particularly during volatile periods like FOMC meetings: Stop-Loss Orders: Ensure every trade is equipped with a stop-loss to cap potential losses. Position Sizing: Adjust position sizes based on volatility and margin requirements for BTC and ES. Diversification: Avoid over-concentration in highly correlated assets to reduce portfolio risk. Monitoring Correlations: Regularly assess whether the BTC-ES correlation holds true during future events, as changing market conditions could alter these relationships. A disciplined approach to risk management enhances the probability of navigating FOMC volatility successfully. 8. Conclusion The correlation between Bitcoin futures (BTC) and E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) around FOMC meetings highlights the interconnected nature of modern financial markets. With 63% of these events showing positive correlation, traders can glean actionable insights into how these assets react to macroeconomic shifts. While the relationship between BTC and ES may fluctuate, understanding its drivers and implications equips traders with tools to navigate market volatility effectively. By combining historical analysis with proactive risk management, traders can make informed decisions during future FOMC windows. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by traddictiv
Silver - Another Textbook Trade For 2025!Silver ( TVC:SILVER ) is again approaching strong support: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Silver has now been consolidating for more than 6 months and is slowly but steadily approaching the previous horizontal support. Another retest would perfectly match with the overall bullish trend, the rising channel formation, as well as the fact that Silver will soon catch up with Gold. Levels to watch: $27.0, $34.0 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SILVERLong
by basictradingtv
1
Tata Motors is Long trade set up do not fear or panic !!!!Tamo is long set up full fledged, note down important numbers resistance and support zones aim for target price of 1400 INR. All influencer and news channel will give you bearish reports but that is not the case Tamo & the companys internal & external matters have changed and the company has grown from what we have seen in 2000's the stock will not follow same pattern that we see on charts before. It will fire & take you to the moon, this could be your last chance to grab this opportunity !!! Dont miss !!! This trade is for educational purposes manage your risks wisely.
NSE:TATAMOTORS1!Long
by anujmehra2012