Back testing Gold Using ICT 2022 model. I broke down price and where the expansion was headed and why. Of course with the benefit of hindsight.
Futures market
Weekly Gold AnalysisFor next week trading journey i will be looking for possible sell trade opportunities if price doesn't break above the daily bearish FVG.
Gold Price Today (Nov 9): Reversal and DeclineOn Friday, gold prices recorded a sharp decline, marking the biggest weekly drop in over five months. This decline was primarily driven by two main factors: the strength of the US dollar and expectations surrounding US interest rates, particularly in light of the potential re-election of Republican candidate Donald Trump. The strengthening of the greenback created downward pressure on gold, which typically suffers when the US dollar appreciates. At the same time, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may maintain high interest rates for an extended period to control inflation also added pressure on the gold market, causing investors to shift towards assets with higher yields.
Gold prices reversed course, registering a decrease of 24.2 USD, falling to 2,684.6 USD per ounce for spot gold. According to technical analysis, the resistance level at 2,706 prevented further gains, leading to a drop toward the support level at 2,685. If this downward trend continues, gold may test the previous support level at 2,648, and the possibility of breaking through this level cannot be ruled out.
As we head into the new week, it remains uncertain how gold prices will behave. Will they rise or continue to decline?
Technical Analysis of XAU/USD (Gold) 4-Hour ChartTrend Analysis: The chart shows a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows, as indicated by the descending trendline. Price is currently trading below this trendline, suggesting continued bearish pressure.
Support and Resistance Levels: Key support zones are marked around 2,650, 2,642, and 2,604. These levels could act as potential areas where buyers may step in if the price continues to decline.
Liquidity Voids: There’s a liquidity void around the 2,660 level, potentially a target area for buyers to push the price up to fill this void.
Potential Reversal Patterns: The dotted line projection suggests a possible reversal pattern with price testing lower levels before bouncing back up to the resistance area near 2,690.
Trade Idea: If price breaks above the descending trendline and the 2,684 resistance, a bullish move towards 2,710 or higher could occur. Conversely, failure to break above may see a continuation of the downtrend towards support at 2,610 or 2,604.
This analysis indicates potential for both short and long positions, depending on how the price reacts to the trendline and support/resistance levels.
Buyers hold on going into the weekendBuyers held positions going into the weekend in the S&P 500 on Friday. This maintains a positive outlook going into next week. Be cautious about the smaller bodies on the candle charts it implies a loss of momentum but not necessarily a dramatic move to the downside.
Oil. Short term sell. Long term buy.To $71 - To $68 - To the moon 🌗…..
at $68, price could go lower but need to see how price reacts. Ultimately, the bulls will win.. will update.
Oil on Demand Mode Keep on eye H1 candle movement. When It passes Simple Moving Average 200 and then 50 that means the bullish movement kicks off.
Silver Chart below - I could be wrong or seriously right.
Most of my ramble is within the chart.
I think traders might have already witnessed the commencement of a bigger market correction for the Gold and Silver price.
Russell 2000 Futures Ascending Triangle (15m)Ascending Triangle breakout will lead to further breakouts into ATHs with price targets of:
- 2337
- 2615 (ATH)
- +++
SL would be a breakdown of the triangle and rejection to reenter the pattern, although bullish structure could remain in place
S&P500: All time high! But sighs of weakness appearing?Calling tops or bottoms is always dangerous.
But since this is just an analysis, there's no harm :)
The Daily is a green doji candlestick. Not the weakest.
However, the 4H is a red doji candlestick.
So, we should see price coming back down as of the next 4H candlestick...even if it's small bodied since it's Asia trading hours.
If price continues to go higher and break above 6030, then clearly the bulls are not with it yet. But I think it should retrace to 6,000 area at the least.
Still think the 5,900 area is a stronger support, but we shall see if it does come back down or not.
XAUUSD / GOLD Gold Price Analysis: Bearish Outlook and Target of 2454
Overview:
Gold has been showing a clear bearish trend since late last week, signaling more downside ahead. Here’s a breakdown of the current market structure and why I’m eyeing a move down to 2454.
Gold has been forming lower highs and lower lows, a typical sign of a bearish market. Buyers have struggled to push prices up, and each attempt has been met with stronger selling pressure.
- Lower Highs: The fact that gold can't break above previous highs suggests weakening bullish momentum.
- Lower Lows: Prices continue to break below support levels, showing that sellers are in control and driving the market lower.
Key Technical Levels:
- Resistance: Around 2500, sellers have stepped in repeatedly, making this a strong resistance zone.
- Support: The next key level to watch is 2454, where I expect gold might find some buying interest or potentially break lower.
Why I’m Targeting 2454
1. Market Sentiment: The current trend and technicals suggest sellers are in control, likely pushing gold down to 2454.
2. Economic Factors: A stronger U.S. dollar or rising interest rates could add to the selling pressure on gold.
3. Volume: Increasing volume on down days indicates institutional selling, which supports the bearish trend.
Conclusion:
Given the bearish structure, I’m planning to sell around 2490, targeting a move down to 2454. This level will be key—if it holds, we might see a bounce; if not, further declines could be on the horizon.
Bearish continuationThe white metal failed to rally up into the 32.000's and we'll likely go further down and touch the Weekly lows.
Natural gas short term long thesis Natural Gas has rotated back to the multi day support after rejecting off the previous day's POC on the TPO chart. It has then bounced off the support with great volume, providing confirmation.
There is a long oppurtunity here @225.7 with a strict stop loss at @223.2 and a target of 231.7.
Trail stop losses as it moves in your favour and take profits accordingly.
Cheers.
XAUUSD, Bearish Continuation on Break of ChannelHead and Shoulder formation
Breakdown of Bullish Channel
Retest of channel
Breakdown Confirmation
Currently @ weekly support
Bearish Trend Continuation Expected
Sell with Sell stop on break of support level
Target Towards 2600 levels
Stoploss above 2713
SOYBEAN CFD Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHallo! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist SOYBEAN CFD Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low Point.
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe.
Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
Gold Long idea Looking for a buy
Entry @ 2.739.00
Stop Loss @ 2.732.00
Take Profit 1 @ 2.746.00
Take Profit 2 @ 2.752.00
Risk Reward - 1:2
XAUUSD: Holding Short Positions Over the WeekendAfter rising to around 2704, gold prices have retraced, and the resistance remains strong, causing the price to fluctuate near the support level. Market sentiment remains cautious, making it difficult to form a clear trend in the short term. If you prefer not to hold positions over the weekend, it's recommended to close your positions before the market closes.
If you choose to hold positions over the weekend, I would personally suggest considering holding short positions before the market closes. Given the current market weakness, gold prices may face further downward pressure.
For those with less favorable account conditions, it's advisable to set stop-loss orders (SL) to effectively manage risk. Unpredictable news or events over the weekend can cause unexpected volatility, and having a stop-loss in place will help prevent significant losses from sudden market movements.
Longterm Yen Bottom - Defensive PlayI think this is a major turning spot for equities/crypto/gold and people should pile into YEN. I think YCL (2x yen) or whatever other instrument you want to use bullish Yen is at an amazing longterm play here.
