BTC shortermShort term expected to have a bounce before further downside,
Monthly - sign of reversal to downside.
Weekly - bearish initiated
Daily - Still bearish trend
Futures market
XAUUSD Time to start selling?Gold (XAUUSD) finally hit our 3 month $3000 target that we've been pursuing since the very first week of this year (January 06, see chart below) and in later stages upgraded to $3100:
Now the price has reached the top of the 1.5-year Channel Up, forming a similar 1D MACD peak formation while completing the +22.50% rise that the previous two major Bullish Legs had. As you can see, the pattern makes its Higher High on the 2nd MACD Bearish Cross and in 2 out of 3 Bearish Legs it retraced all the way to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, while on the remaining it the correction was contained to just above the 0.382 Fib.
On all cases the price came close to the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before bottoming. As a result, even though some more Trump announcements may cause a momentary push upwards, we technically think that it is a solid level to turn bearish now with a fair 2900 Target on the 0.382 Fibonacci where by the end of April it should come close to the 1D MA100.
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Gold prices still have room to rise on MondayGold prices still have room to rise on Monday
As shown in the figure:
Four-hour cycle
The 1234 rays diverging from point A represent the changes in the angle and intensity of the trend in development
The process from 1 to 4 shows that the risk aversion of gold prices is getting heavier, and the trend of forced short selling is becoming more and more obvious
I have analyzed that buying at a low price above 3060 in the next week is still effective
A V-shaped reversal breakthrough is formed here, which is a strong rise.
Then we can use the 1234 channel to sort out and predict the next few pressure areas
Expected future rise
3170 (the limit increase that can be calculated from the trend)
3125 (normal increase in the trend)
3105 (trend stage increase)
3085 (trend current price)
3060 (starting price after trend breakthrough)
3010 (current trend starting point)
So we can clearly conclude: follow the trend
Of course, we must also be wary of the big waterfall market caused by selling pressure and panic running that may come at any time
So the most stable strategy is a simple sentence: as long as the gold price is above 3060, find a suitable low price to go long.
In the next week, the market's expectations for gold prices will continue to rise.
Therefore, following the trend is the safest way to trade.
If it falls below 3060, the gold price will most likely enter a long-term wide range of fluctuations.
Then, there may be a difficult situation for both long and short sides.
As far as the current situation is concerned, as long as it is above 3060, our operation is relatively simple.
Operation strategy: Go long at a low price, stop loss at 3060, or fully test the support near 3060, and consider going long with a light position.
If you still have questions, you can leave me a message for discussion. I am very happy to discuss with you
Gold Gaps Higher — Safe Haven Momentum Meets Month-End LiquidityGold kicked off the week with a strong upside gap — a clear sign that fear remains the dominant force in global markets.
Investors continue to seek refuge in gold amid:
Prolonged geopolitical tensions (Russia–Ukraine)
Natural disaster alerts in Asia
Falling equity markets across Asia-Pacific
And persistent concerns over inflation and slowing global growth
At the same time, today marks the final trading day of the month — a session often known for liquidity grabs, false breakouts, and stop hunts.
💡 Tactical View:
Expect increased volatility heading into the US session as institutional players close their monthly books.
Scalping strategies remain preferable today. Trade around clear zones, stay light, and avoid emotional entries.
🧭 Key Technical Zones – 01/04/2024:
🔺 Resistance: 3116 – 3132
🔻 Support: 3092 – 3085 – 3076 – 3066
🎯 Trading Plan:
🔴 SELL ZONES:
• 3130 – 3132 | SL: 3136
TP: 3125 – 3120 – 3115 – 3110 – 3105 – 3100
• 3138 – 3140 | SL: 3144
TP: 3135 – 3130 – 3125 – 3120 – 3115 – 3110
🟢 BUY ZONE:
3066 – 3064 | SL: 3060
TP: 3070 – 3075 – 3080 – 3085 – 3090 – 3095 – 3100
📌 Final Note:
It’s a textbook day for liquidity plays. Let the market show its hand before you commit.
— AD | Money Market Flow
📢 Join our global trading community on Telegram:
GOLD 4HR CHART Monday Open has taken off continuation close of Friday NZ time We are looking at another ATH with 3.111 33 at the time of writing this currently still a good trade position will close out once T/P is hit. there maybe a small correction. 3,157,65 is my target goal once my T/P is hit.
Observation: News out the USA around Trumps Tariffs have now taken effect on todays open however this just the beginning.
Disclaimer: this not financial advice never risk more than your prepared to loose S/L and T/P must be in place at all times.
update : T/P hit target small correction maybe 3088?
Gold (XAU/USD) 30-Minute Chart AnalysisThis chart provides a technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) price action using Fibonacci levels, consolidation zones, and key support/resistance levels.
Key Observations:
Price Level & Consolidation Zone
The price is currently around $3,119.525, experiencing a consolidation phase (marked in the gray box).
The market is indecisive, moving within a range, waiting for a breakout.
Fibonacci Levels (Support & Resistance)
0.5 Fibonacci Retracement Level ($3,111.919) is acting as support.
0.618 Fibonacci Level ($3,135.728) is acting as resistance, a potential target if the price breaks upward.
Breakout Scenarios:
Bullish Breakout (Up Move) 🚀
If the price breaks above the consolidation zone, the next resistance level is around $3,135-$3,140.
An uptrend continuation could be expected.
Bearish Breakdown (Down Move) 📉
If the price drops below $3,111, it may head towards the $3,100-$3,090 area.
This is confirmed by the downward arrows, showing potential price movement.
Volume & Trendline Considerations
Volume has increased significantly, indicating strong market interest.
A dotted downward trendline suggests a potential bearish scenario if the price fails to break above resistance.
Trading Plan:
Bullish Bias: Wait for a breakout above $3,125-$3,130 before entering long trades.
Bearish Bias: A breakdown below $3,110 could signal short opportunities.
Neutral Stance: If consolidation continues, wait for a clearer direction.
DXY forms a bottom, gold reaches a peak, and BTC rises again?The flow of investment capital in the broader financial market is currently like this:
DXY, BTC, and SP500.
XAU, GBP, and EUR are moving within the same structure.
Currently, the major trend for DXY is undergoing a downward correction, forming a bottom before resuming its upward move. During the process of DXY reaching its peak, market makers will take profits from the Dollar and Bitcoin, redirecting them into gold.
Right now, DXY is continuing its downward slope, which will help gold reach a strong peak.
When XAU hits its peak, DXY will begin a new upward phase. At that point, profits will be taken from XAU and shifted to push BTC’s price higher.
March 31, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary:
Bullish momentum remains strong. The strategy is to buy on pullbacks to support. Avoid taking short positions without a clear bearish signal.
Key Levels to Watch:
3130–3135: Bullish target zone
3128: ATH resistance
3114: Bullish/Bearish pivot line
3106: Key intraday support
3098: Bearish target zone
Short-Term Trading Strategy:
For Shorts: Enter a SELL position if the price breaks below 3114. Watch 3111 for initial support; if the decline continues, monitor 3106, 3103, and 3100.
For Longs: Enter a BUY position if the price pulls back to 3128 and holds. Watch 3130 for confirmation; if bullish momentum continues, monitor 3135, 3138, and 3140.
👉 If my insights have been helpful to you, or if you traded based on my ideas, please consider giving a like — it’s a great encouragement for me! Thanks for your support!
Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion and not financial advice. Please manage your risk accordingly.
NATGAS Technical AnalysisFenzoFx—NATGAS broke above the trendline, surpassing $4.0, but is short-term overbought. It trades around $4.135, holding above the 50-SMA, with a bullish target at $4.26.
A drop below $3.906 (50% Fibonacci) could target $3.660 instead.
$XAUUSD - A Text-Book Post-Triangle Thrust In Play..OANDA:XAUUSD - A barrier triangle wave ((iv)) likely done at 3012. The post-triangle thrust will see price above the previous high.
XAUUSD - Gold breaks out of rising uptrend channelXAUUSD - Gold breaks out of rising uptrend channel.
Gold continues a very strong uptrend. Possibly a blow off top coming?
USOIL - ShortUSOIL seems to have finished a correction and presented a setup in lower time frame. Any pullbacks after downwards momentum, I would look for shorts.
Possibility of correction The price is expected to fluctuate within the current resistance range and then a trend change will occur and we will witness the beginning of a correction. By passing the resistance range, it will be possible to continue the upward trend to the specified resistance levels.
XAUUSD sell Gold price stretches its record-setting rally toward $3,150 in European trading on Monday. The bullion continues to capitalize on safe-haven flows amid intesifying global tariff war fears. US economic concerns weigh on the US Dollar and Treasury yields, aiding the Gold price upsurge.
As I always emphasized, when you find the trend - stay :)When you find the trend, follow it and stay on it as long as it is valid. I uses STFLAT and oh boy, happy I did.
Silver Chart in AUD is breaking out.My take on Silver.
I'm on the same scenario again but this time it's on Silver.
I want to go long on gold when it reaches its all-time high in Australian dollars around 2023. I didn’t pull the trigger because I thought it was too late. You never know if you’re late until the price moves higher or lower. The RANGE indicator (BLUE line) helps me decide the best time to buy gold;
You get one or two chances in a decade to buy gold. If unprepared, it’s not late, but the reward shrinks. Gold has no risk—it’s real money.
This time, its Silver. After the gold price reach new high it almost doubled in AUD. The Silver are in new high in AUD but not in USD.
From what i observed, USD is the last currency go all time high on gold and silver. If silver price will go $50 USD, what do you think the silver price in AUD?
I am targeting Silver miner as they give you more leverage than physical metal and i already have a Silver position since 2021.
The 3 month BREAKOUT chart is closing above the diagonal trendline which is why its called breakout indicator. Once it breaks it, the price moves significantly.
Xauusd bullsGold has shown to have a strong bullish momentum undoubtedly. Minor bearisg pullbacks or retracemnts followed by a continued bulish hedge creating new ATH's, we see gold at the 3100's as the market , further analysis coming soon
Gold Surges as BTC Falters -Institutional Rotation. +75,100 pipsOur original idea has given us 46,000 pips so far. - See below
Our Intra trade ideas has given us 29,100 pips so far. - See below
📍Gold has printed one of its most aggressive quarterly candles in history, currently trading around $3,117 — a full breakout above the long-standing macro trend channel, confirming a decisive phase shift in the market.
📍This breakout is not a wick or deviation — Gold has broken clean through the upper boundary of its decades-long rising channel, invalidating the idea of a return to mean and instead pointing to an acceleration phase.
📍Previous all-time highs in Gold have aligned closely with the -1.414 Fibonacci extensions of major bull runs. The first major top (1980) and the second (2011) respected this exact Fib level. Projecting that logic forward, the current structure suggests a third ATH around $4,270 (-1.414), with further upside possible toward $4,608 (-1.618).
📍The March 2025 candle is extremely strong — nearly a vertical move — and while a small short-term pullback is possible depending on April’s open, the longer-term picture remains undeniably bullish.
📊 Technical Outlook:
✅ Breakout above long-term macro channel = structural shift. Re-entry into the channel is highly unlikely at this point.
✅ Major Fib levels ahead: $3,582 (-1.0), $4,270 (-1.414), $4,608 (-1.618).
✅ Gold is showing repeating expansion behaviour from prior cycles, with historical confluence at Fibonacci projections.
📍Key Support Levels:
❗ $2,948 – Now flipped to support (-0.618 Fib)
❗ $2,609 – Deeper support (-0.414 Fib), unlikely to be retested unless macro conditions shift
📍Key Resistance Levels:
🎯 $3,582 – Next technical barrier (-1.0 Fib)
🎯 $4,270 – Targeted 3rd ATH (-1.414)
🎯 $4,608 – Macro extension (-1.618), likely terminal point of current cycle
🌍 Fundamental & Geopolitical Context (as of March 2025):
🛑 1. Rising Global Tensions Fueling Safe-Haven Demand
The Russia-Ukraine war shows no sign of de-escalation, with new reports indicating increased mobilization on both sides.
Simultaneously, conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has intensified, spilling over into broader regional instability in the Middle East.
U.S.-China tensions have also resurfaced after Taiwan conducted military exercises and received advanced weaponry from Western allies, provoking responses from Beijing.
Trump's renewed political presence and rhetoric on “America First” policies, combined with potential NATO withdrawal, have created uncertainty about future global order.
All of this is driving institutions, central banks, and retail investors alike into hard assets like gold — the original safe haven.
📈 2. Central Banks Are Buying Gold at Record Levels
2024 saw the largest central bank gold purchases in history, led by China, Russia, and emerging markets seeking to de-dollarize.
The trend has continued into Q1 2025, with multiple central banks publicly declaring increased gold reserves.
This structural shift in reserves policy underpins gold demand even during minor pullbacks.
📉 3. Bitcoin Facing Pressure – Gold Poised to Outperform?
Bitcoin mining difficulty is at an all-time high as we approach the April 2025 halving. Margins for miners are shrinking rapidly.
Many publicly listed mining firms are capitulating or reducing operations — hash rate divergence suggests instability.
With interest rates still elevated and risk assets under pressure, Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its highs.
Technicals on BTC suggest a correction from current ~$70K levels down to $50K, potentially driven by miner distribution, ETF rotation, and lack of momentum. We could even see 40k.
This has caused a relative rotation from crypto risk assets back into traditional inflation hedges like gold.
🛢 4. Inflation, Oil, and Economic Instability
Oil has broken above $100 again amid Middle East instability, feeding back into global inflation concerns.
The U.S. economy is showing signs of stagflation: stubborn inflation with weakening job growth.
The Fed remains hawkish due to CPI persistence, making liquidity tighter — typically gold-positive.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
❌ Only a breakdown below $2,948 would indicate failed structure.
This would put gold back inside the channel, negating the breakout — but with current macro tailwinds, this appears extremely unlikely.
⚡ Summary & Alignment:
🔹 Technicals: Massive breakout above channel + historical Fib extensions imply $4,270–$4,600 targets.
🔹 Fundamentals: War, inflation, de-dollarization, and central bank demand all reinforce gold’s bullish case.
🔹 Bitcoin Weakness: Mining costs + halving + macro pressures = BTC to $50K risk, leading capital rotation into gold.
🔹 Geopolitics: Global uncertainty at multi-decade highs — gold thrives on instability.
📈 Outlook: Extremely Bullish for Gold
As fiat volatility, geopolitical instability, and crypto fragility intensify, gold continues to assert its role as the ultimate store of value. Technically and fundamentally, it is aligned for a macro push toward $4,270–$4,600 over the coming quarters.
Previous intra trade idea which played out perfectly (1 - 15 Risk to Reward)
Original idea (+46,000 PIPS so far)
Gold intraday trading strategyGold continued to rise strongly on Friday, breaking the high and closing. The U.S. gold price stabilized at the 3067 mark and continued to rise, and finally closed back above 3085, almost the highest point of the day. The daily K-line closed with two consecutive positive days of shock and breaking the high. The overall gold price firmly stood above the 3050 mark, continuing the strong unilateral rhythm of the bulls. However, after the opening of today, the gold price continued to accelerate and pierced the 3097 mark, and then fell back under pressure and adjusted rapidly. In the short term, the gold price is expected to usher in repeated long and short fluctuations at the 3100 integer mark. Don’t chase more near 3100 at present. Although it rebounded near 3097 at the opening and then rebounded after touching the lowest level of 3077, this wave of technical adjustments is far from reaching the target. We continue to maintain the idea of retreating and going long.
From the 4-hour analysis, the support below is around 3065-73, with a focus on the 3056 first-line support below. The short-term pressure above is 3100-3106. Relying on this range during the day, the main tone of the high-altitude low-multiple cycle remains unchanged.
Gold operation strategy:
1. Buy when gold falls back to 3065-3073, add more when it falls back to 3056, stop loss at 3045, target at 3105-3108, continue to hold if it breaks
Monthly view of Gold. A crash from April 2025 - Aug 2027Taking a step back on Gold, we can see how it clearly has been trading within an ascending triangle for many years, often finding resistance and support where we would expect to see it such as on the upper and lower trend lines, as well as the channels equilibrium line in the centre.
Currently Gold remains in the lower half of this trend, and it has room to the upside, or downside (since it currently sits near resistance - the channels equilibrium - ), buying is a risk).
If we take a look at the previous bull run which occurred Aug 2018-Aug 2020, Gold seen a $1,000 change in price during this time, moving from $1,000 to $2,000 per ounce, psychologically both being key levels. Those two levels also imply that Gold achieved a -1 Fibonacci extension from the previous move.
Taking the above into account, and also drawing over the previous moves using with arrow drawings, copying and replacing over the anticipated future direction (starting from the lowest point of the current bull run $1,600, the 50% retracement level in Oct 2022) this too gives us yet another confluence, another perfect line up with regards to all the other analytical reasons why Gold should hit $3,000 and then fall.
We will take a look on a closer more relevant timeframe so we can see what will happen in the coming weeks. Take a look below:
Gold Long Term Break Of 5 Month TriangleGold breaks the upper side of a 5 month long triangle formation, as well as the parallel channel.
Its broken cleanly on the daily, and now an anticipated continuation before a possible retest.
Zoomed in, looking at our other idea below, we can see the first targets will be 2740 and 2752.
Ultimately, Gold could well be heading towards 3000-3100 after successfully breaking this triangle.
Gold: supported by uncertaintyThe price of gold reached the new all time highest level on Friday, at the level of $3.084. As uncertainty regarding trade tariffs and other geopolitical risks strongly holds on financial markets, the investors continue to invest into a safe-haven asset. But it also means that as long as this uncertainty is high, the price of gold might reach even higher levels in the future period. During the previous week the PCE data for March were posted as well as increased inflation expectations of US consumers, through Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The US equities sharply dropped on the news, while the price of gold continued its strong uptrend.
The RSI tried to start a path toward the downside, however, the indicator turned for one more time toward a clear overbought market side, by reaching the level of 73 on Friday. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without any indication that the cross might come anytime soon.
The long term trend line, started from highs in April and October 2024 is on the test now. The price of gold perfectly collides with the historical highs, and now is at the level which will either be broken, or the price of gold will continue to follow this long term trend line. In case that the price continues with the higher grounds, then it will enter into uncharted territory. If the price reverts, then the first short term stop might be around $3.010. The week ahead will show which direction the price of gold has chosen.
