Topping Out or Temporary Pullback?Market Analysis (Daily Chart View):
The Daily chart indicates that price has declined after reaching a record all-time high and reacting from the upper boundary of an Ascending Broadening Wedge. Both the Weekly and Monthly charts remain in extreme overbought conditions, suggesting caution. Additionally, the upward trend across all three timeframes—Monthly, Weekly, and Daily—is unusually steep and unsustainable.
Such steep trends often lead to parabolic spikes, typically seen near the end of a trend, which is evident from the long wicks on the recent Weekly and Monthly candles. Based on the structure of the Ascending Broadening Wedge, the projected price target is 2565.00.
Futures market
XAU/USD 24 April 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price printed as per my note yesterday whereby I mentioned that we should be surprised if price printed a bearish iBOS as all HTF's require a pullback.
Price subsequently printed a bearish iBOS which confirms internal structure.
Intraday Expectation:
Price has traded up to just short of premium of internal 50% EQ where we are seeing a reaction. Price could potentially trade further into premium of 50%, or H4/M15 nested supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,260.190.
Note:
With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment.
Trump's tariff announcement will most likely cause considerably increased volatility and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold rebounds strongly after sharp dropMarket Review
On Thursday (April 24), spot gold suddenly soared after two days of adjustment, reaching a high of $3,367/ounce, and then fell slightly to around $3,320/ounce. Although the overall market risk appetite is stable, the Fed's expectations of rate cuts have increased, the US economic data has weakened, and the US dollar has been under pressure, which has jointly supported gold's recovery.
Key influencing factors
Expectations of Fed rate cuts: The market's bets on rate cuts this year have increased, weakening the US dollar and benefiting gold, an interest-free asset.
Weak economic data: The recent poor performance of US economic data has exacerbated market risk aversion.
Trade situation has eased: Global trade tensions have cooled, but the market is still on the sidelines, waiting for further guidance.
Technical analysis
Daily level: Gold closed negative for two consecutive days, but did not fall below the 10-day moving average, and the Bollinger Bands are still opening upward, indicating that the overall upward trend has not changed.
4-hour level: Gold price rebounded near the lower track, and MACD and RSI indicators turned from weak to strong, indicating that bullish momentum is accumulating.
Key resistance: $3,380 (4-hour middle track and previous high pressure), after breaking through, it is expected to further challenge $3,500.
Key support: $3,315 (short-term retracement position), $3,260 (stable long entry point).
Operation strategy
Aggressive strategy: 3310-3315 long, stop loss of $5, target 3,380, further look at 3,500.
Steady strategy: 3260-3265 long, stop loss of $5, target 3,380.
Focus
Today, the United States will announce the monthly rate of durable goods orders and the number of initial jobless claims in March. If the data is weak, it may further push up gold. In addition, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the disturbance of geopolitical situation and trade trends to market sentiment.
GOLD Goes "Buy The Dip", Following 200-hour SMA Major SupportGold prices have experienced significant volatility over the last days, with conflicting reports on the current trend. According to some sources, gold prices have increased, with spot gold reaching $3,500 per troy ounce, new all the history high on Tuesday, April 22, 2025.
The $3,500 milestone has sparked increased interest from investors and market analysts, meaning that Gold spot doubled in price over the past 5 years, 3rd time in history ever.
Despite the short-term volatility, gold has shown a strong performance since the beginning of 2025, with an increase of approximately 30-35% year-to-date. Market analysts remain bullish on gold, with some forecasting prices to reach $ 4'000 per ounce in the near term.
The main 1-hour Gold spot OANDA:XAUUSD graph indicates on 200-hours SMA technical support, with further upside opportunity due to forming on the chart descending triangle (flat bottom/ descending top) breakthrow.
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💖 Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team
Gold short-term analysisGold daily line fell 240 dollars from the top of 3500. At present, 3500 is under short-term pressure. Whether the adjustment is over or not cannot be confirmed. The short-term 4-hour middle track 3380 has been lost and converted into a key resistance!
The 1-hour level K-line is under pressure and ma10 and ma5 continue to fall. After yesterday's consolidation and pull-up in the NY market, the K-line has now re-run above ma10, plus macd is under the zero axis. The rapid decline of 200 dollars has almost corrected most of the upward trend. If it continues to fall, it may start to build a bottom with the help of the bottom divergence, and then start the next round of gains!
Today is also a critical day for gold. After the bottom of 3260, today's strength is very important. If gold continues to rise directly today without a big correction, it means that gold may start to fluctuate and rise again.
Key points:
First support: 3320, second support: 3300, third support: 3288
First resistance: 3360, second resistance: 3376, third resistance: 3400
Operation ideas:
Buy: 3315-3318, SL: 3306, TP: 3340-3360;
Sell: 3387-3390, SL: 3400, TP: 3370-3350;
Gold Market Sweeps 3261, Eyes 3400 NextAfter mitigating the recent high at 3500, gold made a decisive weekly imbalance sweep through 3261. With bullish momentum regaining control, the next projected target stands at 3400 as the market aligns with its upward trajectory. follow for more insights , comment and boost idea
Gold profit taking continuesThe gold market opened at 3337.5 yesterday due to the profit-taking of the previous day. After the market fell back to 3315.6, the market rose strongly to fill the gap. The daily line reached a high of 3386.7 and then fell strongly. The daily line reached a low of 3259.6 and then the market consolidated at the end of the day. The daily line finally closed at 3287.9 and the market closed with a long upper shadow line. After this pattern ended, today's market continued to be empty. In terms of points, the short positions at 3496, 3468 and 3442 the day before were reduced and the stop loss was followed up at 3400.
SELL:3340 45 50 Stop loss: 55
TP1:3330
TP2:3320
TP3:3300
Correction down for goldHi traders,
Gold went a little more up (finish grey wave 3) and after that the bigger correction for (grey) wave 4 started just as I've said last week.
For next week we wait for the finish of the correction (Zigzag or Triangle) and after that we could trade longs again.
Let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the correction to finish and a change in orderflow to bullish to trade longs again.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
XAU/USD SIGNAL ANALYSIS LONG SETUP | GO AND CHECK THE CAPTIONHello dear Traders 👋
XAU/USD Trading Signals Technical Analysis Setup 👇
• Trade Setup 📈
📊 • Entry Zone: 3,310 – 3,320
🔺 • Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,340
🔺 • Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,350
🔺 • Take Profit 3 (TP3): 3,366
⭕ • Stop Loss (SL): 3,290
Technical Analysis Setup:
• Strong bullish reaction from key support zone.
• Bullish structure forming with higher highs anticipated.
• Clear upside potential with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for long entries.
⚠ Always use proper risk management!
Stay patient and let the setup complete itself. Trade at your own risk
Gold ended successfully, Where will the market go next week?The idea of keeping gold short at a high level is that after the winning streak of gold ended, gold continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. If there is no opportunity, then it will end early and rest. After all, it is Friday. After a hard week, it is time to rest. The news on the weekend has changed a lot, and it is full of uncertainty. Gold rebounded again in the second half of the night, which seems to be strong, but has gold reversed? It is too early to say now.
The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to be short, but after gold bottomed out at the first-line support near 3265, gold rebounded by more than 50 US dollars. Is this rebound a reversal? Not necessarily, because now it basically fluctuates by about 100 US dollars every day, and it is hard to say that a rebound of 50 US dollars is a reversal. The strength of next week is the key. If the rebound of gold next week is not very strong, then gold will still fluctuate and be short. The resistance of the 1-hour moving average above gold is near 3354, and the top of the negative line of gold on Friday is near 3352. If there is no effective breakthrough of these two positions next week, it will still be a fluctuating and short trend.
The weekly line of gold is also a shooting star with a long upper shadow at a high level. If there is no big bullish news to support gold in the short term, gold will be under pressure at a high level in the short term, and the daily line is also down from a high level without a strong counterattack. On the whole, there is still room for adjustment in the short term for gold.
The market is changing rapidly and confusing. Sometimes we cannot be confused by the illusion in front of us. Only by not being afraid of the clouds blocking our eyes can we see clearly behind the market. Before gold reverses, it is still bearish in the short term. It is light to follow the trend and messy to go against the trend. The market is always right. Going against the market will eventually be taught a lesson by the market. Don't have any fluke mentality in the face of the trend. The market will not forgive your mistakes again and again.
Next week's operation ideas: short gold 3350-60, target 3310-3300;
Gold fluctuates in a range and corrects sideways! Trend AnalysisAnalysis of gold market trends next Monday:
Technical analysis of gold: From the performance of the daily chart, the recent trend of gold prices has shown a high consolidation trend, and there has been a significant correction from the high point near $3,500. After hitting the low point of the week, the gold price rebounded to a certain extent, but the rebound strength was blocked near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (about $3,368-3,370), which has now become an important short-term resistance. The opening trend of the gold market on Friday was like Thursday, and the Asian session started to pull up and rise all the way to around $3,370. However, it encountered strong resistance here, and then turned downward and started to fall. It is worth noting that today's gold price not only failed to break through this key resistance level, but also fell below the low point hit by yesterday's European and American sessions, and rebounded after reaching a minimum of $3,265.
From the current market structure, the position of $3,260 has become the focus of the market, and investors need to pay close attention to whether the gold price can reach or even fall below this point. Once it effectively breaks, the bearish trend will be further strengthened, and the market may usher in a deeper adjustment. From the current form, there are two Yins enveloping Yangs, so the adjustment will continue at the beginning of next week; of course, this adjustment can be replaced by sideways trading, which means that it is not ruled out that it will run back and forth in the 3260-3380 range. On the whole, the short-term operation strategy for gold next Monday is recommended to be mainly long on pullbacks, supplemented by short on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper resistance of 3368-3370, and the short-term focus on the lower support of 3265-3260. Friends must keep up with the rhythm. It is necessary to control the position and stop loss, set stop loss strictly, and do not resist single operation. The specific points are mainly based on real-time intraday trading. Welcome to experience and exchange real-time market conditions.
Reference for gold operation strategy next Monday: Strategy 1: Short gold rebounds near 3368-3370, target near 3300-3285, and look at the 3260 line when it breaks.
Strategy 2: Go long on gold when it pulls back to around 3265-3270, target around 3290-3330, and look at the 3370 line if it breaks.
Gold price range oscillates (3260-3360)Gold price range oscillates (3260-3360)
As shown in Figure 4h:
Strong pressure zone: around 3360
Strong support: around 3260
Regional midline: ray 3
Regional support line: ray 2
Bull-bear watershed: 3330-3340
Next week, both long and short strategies have opportunities
Short strategy:
Continue to bearish gold price below 3340, short at high point, stop loss range: 3360-3370. The stop loss span is large, suitable for secondary entry short layout, be sure to control the order ratio.
Long strategy:
1: Wait until the gold price falls to the 3360-3340 range to go long, stop loss 3340-3330 (this strategy requires patience to wait for the opportunity)
2: Wait until Line 3 stands above 3340, go long at the low gold price, stop loss 3330-3335. (This strategy also requires patience to wait for the opportunity)
The last digression:
Do you want to fight Trump?
My answer is: I want to be Trump too
XAUUSD Downtrend Continues- Is 3,175 the Next Stop?OANDA:XAUUSD is currently trading within a well-defined descending channel, with price action consistently forming lower highs and lower lows. This structure reflects sustained bearish momentum, and sellers continue to dominate the overall direction.
The recent upward move appears to be a technical rebound, with price approaching a potential resistance zone near the upper boundary of the channel. This area may now serve as a supply zone after acting as previous support, making it an important region for potential rejection.
If the resistance holds, a rejection here could lead to the continuation of the bearish trend, with a potential move targeting the support area around 3,175, aligning with the lower boundary of the descending channel.
However, failure to hold below this level could invalidate the bearish scenario and increase the likelihood of a retest toward the upper boundary of the channel.
Traders should monitor for clear rejection signals at resistance, such as bearish engulfing candles or strong rejection wicks, or alternatively, wait for breakout confirmation before considering a trend shift. As always, proper risk management remains essential.
SILVERSilver’s supply-demand dynamics in 2025 are characterized by persistent deficits and surging industrial demand, setting the stage for significant price action. Here’s how these factors are shaping the market:
Supply Constraints and Deficit Dynamics
Fifth Consecutive Annual Deficit
The silver market is projected to face a 182 million-ounce deficit in 2025, continuing a five-year trend of demand outpacing supply. Key drivers include:
Production stagnation: Global silver supply has declined over the past decade, with 2024 production at 1.03 billion ounces, insufficient to meet demand of 1.21 billion ounces.
Recycling limitations: Industrial applications (e.g., electronics, solar panels) often result in permanent silver loss, reducing recyclable supply.
Geopolitical and Mining Risks
Mexico and Russia, which collectively contribute ~21% of global production, face regulatory changes and geopolitical tensions, further straining supply.
New deposits in Poland (potential 150M ounces/year by 2030) offer long-term relief but minimal impact for 2025.
Demand Drivers Fueling Price Pressure
Industrial Demand Surge
Solar energy: Accounts for 15–20% of total demand, driven by global net-zero initiatives.
AI and tech: Silver’s conductivity makes it critical for semiconductors and 5G infrastructure.
EVs: Rising adoption increases silver use in batteries and electrical components.
Monetary and Safe-Haven Demand
Declining gold-to-silver ratio (88:1 as of March 2025) suggests silver is undervalued relative to gold, historically a precursor to rallies.
Federal Reserve rate cuts and inflationary pressures boost silver’s appeal as a hedge.
Price Action Implications for 2025
Factor Bullish Catalysts Bearish Risks
Supply Persistent deficits, mining disruptions Polish deposits (long-term)
Demand Industrial growth, safe-haven inflows Economic slowdown reducing industrial use
Macro Weak USD, geopolitical tensions Trade wars (e.g., Trump tariffs)
Bullish: Analysts at Citi, UBS, and Saxo Bank forecast $38–$50, citing supply deficits and industrial momentum.
Speculative: Potential for $70–$100 if deficit narratives accelerate, though contested due to recycling and new supply.
In summary, silver’s supply roof breakout in 2025-marked by structural deficits and industrial demand growth-supports a bullish outlook. While short-term volatility from profit-taking or trade policies may occur, the confluence of constrained supply and expanding applications positions silver for sustained upward momentum.