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Gold price rebounded. Strategy is coming.Gold rose yesterday under the stimulus of risk aversion; gold did not continue the upward trend today, which means that the risk aversion sentiment of gold has been digested. The 4-hour moving average of gold formed a dead cross, and MACD also formed a dead cross. Then gold is likely to maintain the morning support position near 3290 for oscillation. I think we can continue to short after gold rebounds. After the opening of the US market, the rise of gold has been under pressure at the 3310 line and cannot break through. Gold rebounded under pressure at 3310 and continued to short on rallies. The market situation is changing all the time. We cannot always use the same trading strategy. If the price fails to rise, we will implement a short strategy; in line with the changes in the market, we can make profits faster. Operation strategy: Short near 3305, stop loss 3315, profit range 3270-3260.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid-1
[ TimeLine ] Gold 2-3 June 2025Hello everyone, 📆 Today is Friday, May 30, 2025 📌 Upcoming Gold Signal Dates: • June 2, 2025 (Monday) — Single candle setup • June 2–3, 2025 (Monday–Tuesday) — Two-candle range 🧠 Trading Plan & Notes ✅ Gold recently made a bearish move of ~780 pips, breaking below the prior key support at 3323, down to 3245 🔁 Multiple re-entry opportunities were identified using Fibonacci retracement levels, which provided solid price reaction points. ⚠️ If the June 2 Hi-Lo range appears wide and sideways, we may consider holding off until June 4 for confirmation of clearer directional bias. ✅ I will be trading both signals (June 2 and June 2–3) as part of my ongoing research and strategy ⚠️ If the range is narrow or shows false breakout risk, it's okay to skip the June 2 signal and focus instead on the June 2–3 combined range. 📋 Execution Plan 🔹 Wait for the Hi-Lo range from the selected candle(s) to fully form. ▫ These will be marked initially with purple lines on the chart. ▫ After market close, I’ll update the chart with additional indicator levels. 🔹 Entry triggers will be based on breakouts beyond the range, with a 60-pip buffer. 🔹 If the trade hits SL, the plan is to cut/switch direction and double position size on the next valid signal as part of the recovery strategy. 📉📈 Chart Reference Copy & paste this code into your browser and add TradingView URL: 🔗 TV/x/iQrX0gJW/ ✅ Stay alert and follow the signal flow — upcoming entries could offer solid reward potential if executed with discipline. 📌 I'll post the final Hi-Lo levels and updated chart after the June 2 and June 3 candles close.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
The volatility is an illusion, and gold is brewing major changesGold fluctuated downward in the Asian session on Friday, while it remained in the range of 3287-3303 in the European session. Although it tried to break through the short-term pressure level of 3300-3306 many times, it has never been able to stand firmly. I arranged to go long at 3288-3289 in advance, notified to enter the market at the point, and finally reached the target of 3303 perfectly, earning 15 points of profit! Quick, accurate and ruthless, with the right idea, profit-taking is as easy as drinking water! Therefore, it is recommended that we continue to pay attention to the short-term support of 3290-3285 below. If the price fails to break through the support range like in the early trading, you can consider trying to enter the long position. Given that today is Friday, the market volatility may be "demon-like", so you need to be extra cautious in operation and pay close attention to the changes in the market. At the same time, you must keep in mind the principle of "taking profits for safety"-lock in profits in time when you can see them, and don't easily bet on trends that you don't understand. If your current gold operation effect is not ideal, I hope my analysis can help you avoid some detours. Welcome to communicate at any time! Today, the monthly, weekly and daily lines closed simultaneously. At the same time, the PCE data will be released during the US trading session, and the market volatility may intensify. From a technical point of view, 3285 is also the key to long and short today. If gold does not break 3285 today, the strength of gold bulls is expected to continue, and there is still room for gold to move upward. If gold continues to fall and falls below 3285, then gold may begin to fluctuate in a large range. The upper resistance is in the 3320-3330 area, and the focus is on the 3335-3340 line of suppression. Pay attention to the 3290-3285 line of support below, and the key position below is in the 3280 area. If it breaks below the 3280 area during the day, the market is expected to fall again to the 3265-3250-3240 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP_Daniel5
Action Plan for the Next Big MoveThe Canadian Dollar (CAD) is trading around 0.725, caught in a rare balance where clear conviction is elusive and volatility appears to be compressing, beneath the surface, the stage is set for a potentially explosive move. With the Bank of Canada set to announce its policy decision next week and trade issues with the US still simmering, the market feels poised for a major breakout, even as the immediate backdrop remains subdued. Fundamental Analysis: Waiting Game with Trade Tension All eyes are on the Bank of Canada’s upcoming decision. The policy rate, having dropped to 2.75% after a string of seven cuts, now stands at its lowest level in nearly three years. The latest inflation print (1.7%) supports a cautious stance, and the market is pricing in a 70% chance of no change. Yet, this calm could be deceptive: should inflation slip further or job data disappoint, talk of renewed easing will return quickly. Canada’s deep trade relationship with the United States means any change in tariff policy is especially consequential. Although a US court recently ruled in favor of Canada, experts warn that the broader tariff debate is far from over. Any fresh escalation or, conversely, an easing of trade tensions could move the CAD sharply in either direction. Meanwhile, a mild rebound in oil prices adds some support, but the real driver remains policy and politics. For now, fundamentals argue for patience, with no strong directional bias until the next catalyst emerges. Technical Analysis: Tight Range, But Pressure Is Building Price action has settled into a well-defined range after the sharp volatility of late May. The contract retreated to the point of control at 0.7220, absorbing liquidity and confirming this zone as reliable short-term support. On the upside, repeated failures above 0.73, including rejection wicks earlier this week, highlight strong resistance and a market not yet ready to commit to a sustained trend. Despite the lack of a decisive move, this compression phase often precedes an outsized breakout, especially with macro catalysts on the horizon. Sentiment Analysis: Crosswinds, Not Clarity Institutional flows show a recent uptick in short positions on the CAD, while retail sentiment appears balanced to slightly bullish CAD (short USD/CAD), reflecting indecision. The VIX, now close to its annual average, signals that risk appetite is neutral, there’s little evidence of panic or euphoria. This cocktail leaves the CAD without a clear consensus but suggests that when conviction returns, the move could be sharp. Listed Options Analysis: Pin Risk, Gamma Potential, and the Calm Before Volatility The monthly options board reveals significant open interest in calls clustered between 0.7350 and 0.74 for the next expiration, the 6th of June, while downside protection is less pronounced. Implied volatility, though lower than recent extremes, remains elevated compared to historical averages, and there’s a mild bias toward downside hedges. If spot moves above 0.73, options dynamics could quickly flip, fueling an upside acceleration toward 0.7350 or even higher, as dealers are forced to chase delta hedges. A pin at these strikes is possible if the move is not explosive, but a genuine breakout could be dramatic. Trade Idea: Flexibility Over Forecasting With so many crosscurrents and volatility compressing, the market appears primed for a breakout. Rather than forcing a directional bet, the most rational approach is to prepare for both outcomes with clear levels. Bullish Breakout Scenario Entry: Buy above 0.7320 (daily close or strong breakout confirmation) Stop: 0.7245 (below recent support) Target 1: 0.7395 (OI cluster) Target 2: 0.7500 (psychological level) Bearish Breakdown Scenario Entry: Sell below 0.7220 (daily close or strong breakout confirmation) Stop: 0.7310 (above the prior resistance) Target: 0.7145 (recent lows/retail stops) Rather than predict, this approach lets price action dictate. Volatility may be low for now, but context argues that a range breakout, especially to the upside, could be sudden and violent given options positioning and macro uncertainty. With policy on pause, trade headlines pending, and options open interest suggesting magnetic levels higher, the CAD sits on the edge of potential. As volatility compresses, the market’s indecision is itself the clearest signal: the next major move, when it comes, is likely to be fast and fueled by positioning. Flexibility, not bias, is the trader’s greatest edge in this environment. Be ready for it. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/. This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6C1!Long
by satelysfx
[ TimeLine ] Gold 26-27 May 2025Hello everyone, 📅Today is Sunday, May 25, 2025 📌 Upcoming Signal Dates: • May 26, 2025 (Monday) • May 27, 2025 (Tuesday) (using 2 candles) 🧠 Trading Plan & Notes: ✅ Gold has experienced a sharp bullish move of over 1000 pips, breaking out from the ranging area 3255 to 3366 ⚠️ If the upcoming Hi-Lo range is wide and shows bullish continuation, consider entries on corrections after breakout or setups based on Fibonacci retracement ✅ I will be trading both signals as part of my ongoing research and strategy ⚠️ If you're feeling risk-averse or uncertain, it's totally fine to skip the May 26 or May 27–28 (2-candle) signals 📋 Execution Plan: 🔹 Wait for the Hi-Lo range from the selected candles to fully form. These will be initially marked with purple lines on the chart, and I’ll update the chart with additional indicator lines once the range is fully confirmed after market close 🔹 Entry will be triggered on breakout, with a 60-pip buffer 🔹 If the trade hits Stop Loss (SL), cut/switch and double the position on the next valid setup to attempt recovery 📉📈 Chart Reference: 🔗 Copy & paste this code into TradingView URL: TV/x//BjdZ9IgR/
OANDA:XAUUSD
by lybeedo
GOLD GC /GC GC1! XAU/USD: Arbitrage Oppertunity. Gold Futures (GC1!) – Breakdown Ahead? Arbitrage Opportunity Emerging 🔍 Daily Chart Analysis by Wavervanir International LLC ⚠️ Key Technical Observations: Descending Triangle Breakdown Risk: Gold has rejected resistance near $3,350 multiple times. The lower highs and horizontal support suggest a descending triangle structure. Projected Breakdown Zone: If $3,280 support fails, we could see a swift move toward $3,100 or even lower, near the $2,950 zone. Lower Trendline Magnet: Price appears to be gravitating toward a key trendline formed from April’s breakout, which aligns with the $2,950–$3,000 confluence zone. 💱 Arbitrage Opportunity: GC1! vs XAU/USD vs /GC There is growing dislocation among: GC1! (Gold Futures – COMEX) /GC (Front-Month Gold Futures) XAU/USD (Spot Gold) Watch for inefficiencies due to: 🔁 Hedging lag across timeframes (spot vs futures) 💰 Rate differential effects (carry cost, interest rates) 🌍 Currency mismatch in spot vs USD-settled futures If the spot-futures basis widens unjustifiably, a short GC1! / long XAU/USD setup could exploit mean reversion. Advanced traders might also consider calendar spreads (/GC Jun vs Aug) if volatility compresses. 📊 Probabilistic Outlook: Scenario Probability Commentary Breakdown Toward $2,950 55% Technical structure favors bears unless macro shifts occur. Bounce and Range Around $3,300 30% Compression before Fed/JOLTS/NFP may cause chop. Breakout Above $3,375 15% Requires macro catalyst—like Fed rate cut, geopolitical shock, or weak USD 🧠 Macro Factors to Monitor: FOMC & FedSpeak (June) – If rate cuts are delayed, gold could lose momentum. Real Yields (10Y TIPS) – Rising real yields = bearish gold. Geopolitical Tensions – Any flare-ups (Middle East, Taiwan) may flip sentiment fast. China/BRICS Demand – Gold import/export data could signal accumulation or slowdown. 💡 We’re monitoring these inefficiencies for tactical plays under the Wavervanir macro-arbitrage lens. Stay updated for real-time trade ideas and DSS-based execution. #Gold #GC1 #XAUUSD #FuturesTrading #MacroArbitrage #CommodityTrading #Wavervanir #RiskManagement
COMEX:GC1!Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Gold rebounds in the US market and continues to be short! 📊Comment analysis Gold rose yesterday under the stimulus of risk aversion, so gold did not continue to rise today, which means that the risk aversion sentiment of gold has been digested, and the 1-hour moving average of gold has also begun to turn downward and has not crossed upward, so the momentum of gold shorts has begun to increase, and gold rebounds and continues to be short. After gold surged, it has been under pressure at the 3310 line and cannot break through. Therefore, gold rebounds in the US market and continues to be short at highs under pressure at 3310. 💰Strategy Package US trading operation ideas: Gold 3304-3310 short, stop loss 3315, target 3280-3270-3260; ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the number of lots that matches your funds - Profit is 4-7% of the capital account - Stop loss is 1-3% of the capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Labaron
1
/HE HE1! Macro Analysis: Lean Hogs Futures (HEM2025)🐖 Supply & Demand Dynamics Production Trends: The USDA forecasts 2025 U.S. pork production at 28.5 billion pounds, a 2.7% increase from 2024, driven by higher slaughter levels and improved litter rates . Export Outlook: Pork exports are projected to rise by 3% to 7.3 billion pounds in 2025, with strong demand from Mexico and South Korea offsetting declines in China and Japan . Domestic Demand: U.S. pork consumption remains flat, averaging 50 lbs per person annually, while beef and chicken consumption have increased . Oklahoma Farm Report 💰 Cost & Profitability Factors Feed Costs: Feed costs are projected to decrease by 13% in 2025, reaching a feed cost index of 87, due to lower corn and soybean meal prices . Producer Margins: Lower feed costs and stable hog prices are expected to improve producer margins, with average hog prices projected at $65 per cwt in 2025 . 🌍 Trade & Geopolitical Considerations Tariffs and Trade Disputes: Ongoing trade tensions, particularly with China, have led to a 125% tariff on U.S. pork exports, causing producers like Smithfield Foods to pivot to other markets . Export Diversification: U.S. pork producers are focusing on expanding exports to countries like Mexico, South Korea, and Canada to mitigate risks associated with trade disputes . Oklahoma Farm Report 📈 Technical Analysis Recap Breakout Confirmation: Price has broken above the descending trendline and reclaimed key Fibonacci levels (0.786 and 0.886), indicating bullish momentum. Target Zones: Immediate target at 101.600 (1.618 Fib extension), with further targets at 101.875 (1.786), 101.975 (1.854), and 102.225 (2.0). Support Level: Key support at 99.925; a break below this level could invalidate the bullish structure. 📊 Probability Assessment Scenario Probability Rationale Bullish Continuation 65% Supported by technical breakout, lower feed costs, and stable export demand. Sideways Consolidation 25% Potential due to flat domestic demand and global trade uncertainties. Bearish Reversal 10% Possible if key support at 99.925 fails or if export markets deteriorate further. 📌 Conclusion The Lean Hogs Futures market exhibits a favorable setup for a bullish continuation, supported by technical indicators and macroeconomic factors such as lower feed costs and stable export demand. However, traders should remain vigilant of potential risks, including trade disputes and domestic demand stagnation.
CME:HE1!Long
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
European session focuses on 3312 to accelerate the opening of th Today, I still treat it as bearish. The market rebounded to 3322 and then started to fall, which is different from our expectations. The retracement and decline accelerated after breaking 3312. The current lowest is 3290. The main bearish idea is correct, but there is still room for decline. Now let me tell you about today's risk data! On Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index for April. As the most favored inflation indicator of the Federal Reserve, the year-on-year change of the core PCE price index has a greater impact on policymakers. If the data is released today, the core PCE price index in April will rise faster than expected. The direct reaction of the market may lead investors to prefer the policy interest rate to remain unchanged in July. In this case, the US dollar may gather strength, causing gold prices to fall before the weekend. A view on the trend of gold in the European session Gold opened today with a maximum rise of 3322 and then started to fall. As of now, the lowest price has retreated to 3290. At present, it is not ruled out that gold will fluctuate widely, but my view on the trend is still biased towards the short side. Today's accelerated opening is at 3312. The current rebound strength still depends on the strength of the European session. In the European session, we should first focus on the 3312 line. If there is pressure, we will still look down to 3280! Otherwise, we have to test the high point of the opening above. But if the European session directly breaks through the 3280 line, there is still room for decline, and the support is at the 3260-50 line. In addition, today is the last day of the monthly line closing, and the range of fluctuations has not yet left. If there is no suitable entry opportunity, just wait patiently. In my personal opinion, if the closing is below 3320, June is still short for the time being. Gold: Short near 3212, defense above 20, target 3280, break to see 60 line!
TVC:GOLDShort
by Yuliya1l11
Data is out. Gold is fluctuating.Information summary: On Wednesday, US time, the Trade Court ordered an immediate halt to tariffs; the next day, the Federal Court of Appeals immediately resumed the policy. At the same time, the Trade Court was required to respond by June 5, and the government by June 9. Tariff policies are back and forth, and it is difficult to figure out. In other words, don't expect the US government to come up with any good news. Today, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in April was 2.6% in the previous value and 2.5% in the expected value. The expectation seen at the beginning of the week was 2.6%. Now the expectation is directly lowered. Is it to leave room for this announcement? If the increase is not higher than the previous value, it is not a significant increase, but it leaves room for interest rate cuts. For gold, the increase is not higher than the previous value, and the short position is limited. This mediocre data can directly provide a basis for speculation on the current economic situation in the United States. After yesterday's strong rise, with a very long lower shadow left on the middle track of the Bollinger Band, after stabilizing the middle track, the fast and slow lines further converged and flattened, indicating that the main funds are also hesitating. From this perspective, today's market may continue to fluctuate within the middle track. At the same time, the closing line is also the most critical, which is around 3285-90 near the middle track. Operation strategy: Today's trading needs to pay attention to the cycle suppression position of 3315-3330 on the upper side, and the cycle support level of 3385-3380 on the lower side. This range can be maintained for scalping trading. If the gold price breaks through strongly upward or downward, the new trend will be realized in a very short time, so traders need to make profits and stop losses in time.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Quaid-1
Gold (GC) Trade Plan – Watching Key Zones for Reaction Currently watching Gold Futures (GC) as price moves within a defined range. ✅ Buy Zone (Green): Waiting for price to reach this demand area and show a bullish reaction confirmed by order flow before entering long. ❌ Sell Zone (Red): If price pushes into this supply area, I’ll consider a short setup only if there’s clear bearish confirmation on order flow (e.g., trapped buyers, absorption, or momentum shift). ⚠️ No reaction = no trade. I’m simply reacting to what the market gives me, not predicting. Let the flow guide the entries. 🧠📊
COMEX:GC1!
by prolivetrader
Rangbound 3290-3330As XAUUSD create at rangbound natural Rectangle (3330-3290) area along with Inverse Head and shoulder pattern. Whats Current scanario we have ? Bullish scanario: -If H4 stays above 3285-3290 then we have again bullish spike towards 3318 then 3330 milestone. Bearish Scenario: -If H1&H4 candle closes above 3280-3277  then  selling will be active and Inverse head&Shoulder pattern will be invalid. Our targets will be 3250 then 3230. My opinion: I will keep operating within this natural range 3290-3330 as long it last. #XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Forexmaestro121