From Congestion to Collapse: Understanding Distribution and H&S A Simple Lesson: How to Identify Congestion Zones in the Market — Schabacker’s Approach and the Head and Shoulders Pattern
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👤 Who Was Schabacker?
🔹 Richard Schabacker was one of the pioneers who authored seminal works on technical analysis.
🔹 He lived over 90 years ago and served as Editor-in-Chief of Financial World magazine.
🔹 His most notable book is:
Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits
🔹 Published around 1932 in the United States.
🔹 Schabacker is often considered the “grandfather” of technical analysis, and much of the methodology traders use today can be traced back to his insights.
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🟢 What Did He Teach?
🔹 Schabacker introduced a critical concept:
✅ The Congestion Zone
🌟 What Does It Mean?
When the market makes a strong move—either a sharp rally or a steep decline—price often becomes trapped in a range:
• Buyers at higher levels wait for further gains.
• Sellers at lower levels expect more downside.
But in reality, retail traders aren’t moving the market. Large institutions and funds—the so-called smart money—are in control.
👈 When these big players want to exit positions, they avoid selling everything at once to prevent a sudden collapse in price and to avoid revealing their hand.
✅ Their Playbook:
• Keep price contained within a narrow band between support and resistance.
• Gradually increase volume over time.
• Attract new buyers who believe the trend is still intact.
• Quietly distribute their holdings without alarming the market.
🌟 Why Do They Do This?
If they were to dump all at once:
• Price would drop rapidly.
• Everyone would realize a large seller was active.
• Institutions would get stuck, unable to exit at favorable prices.
🔻 So They Create Congestion and Distribution:
1️⃣ Sell discreetly over time.
2️⃣ Maintain the illusion that the trend is healthy.
3️⃣ Trap latecomers who buy into the range.
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🟢 How Do You Recognize This on a Chart?
🎯 A Simple Example:
• Price climbs steadily from 3,000 to 3,300.
• Suddenly, it surges to 3,450.
✅ Most traders think the rally will continue.
🌟 What happens next:
• Price stalls between 3,380 and 3,450.
• Numerous candles form in this area.
• Volume remains elevated.
🔥 Inside this range:
1️⃣ Institutions sell into every upward move.
2️⃣ Early buyers remain committed, hoping for new highs.
3️⃣ New participants enter, unaware of the distribution.
🔻 What Do You See?
• Repeated candles oscillating within the same band.
• Failed breakouts above resistance.
• Sustained high volume.
✅ This is the classic Congestion Zone.
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💡 How Can You Tell If It’s Distribution, Not Accumulation?
• Persistent high volume indicates steady selling.
• Price struggles to make fresh highs.
• Long upper wicks signal selling pressure.
• A Head and Shoulders pattern may start forming.
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🎯 What Happens After Congestion?
• Institutions complete their distribution.
✅ Price breaks sharply below the range.
✅ The market drops quickly.
✅ Late buyers are forced to sell at losses.
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🟢 Practical Illustration:
Visualize the range like this:
| |
| The Range |
| |
3380 ————> Resistance
| Multiple Candles |
| Multiple Candles |
| Multiple Candles |
3300 ————> Support and Neckline
✅ If price breaks below 3,300 on heavy volume:
• The distribution is complete.
• Price declines rapidly.
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📌 Key Takeaway:
After any strong move, expect congestion as large players exit. Once they’re done, the trend often reverses.
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🎯 Quick Tips:
✅ Never rush to buy inside congestion after a big rally.
✅ Watch volume—if it’s high, it’s likely distribution.
✅ Wait for a clear breakdown before shorting.
✅ Your target should at least match the size of the preceding move.
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🔥 Let’s Cover the Head and Shoulders Pattern:
✅ What Is It?
A reversal pattern appearing after a strong uptrend, signaling the end of bullish momentum.
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✅ Pattern Components:
1️⃣ Left Shoulder:
• Price makes a high.
• Pulls back.
2️⃣ Head:
• Rallies to a higher high.
• Declines again.
3️⃣ Right Shoulder:
• Attempts to rise but fails to exceed the head’s high.
4️⃣ Neckline:
• Connects the lows between the shoulders and the head.
🔻 When the Neckline Breaks Down:
It’s a strong sell signal. The market often drops decisively.
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💡 Example in Numbers:
• Price moves from 3,200:
1️⃣ Up to 3,350 (Left Shoulder)
2️⃣ Down to 3,300
3️⃣ Up to 3,400 (Head)
4️⃣ Down to 3,300
5️⃣ Up to 3,350 (Right Shoulder)
6️⃣ Down to 3,300
✅ If price closes below 3,300 on strong volume, the pattern is confirmed.
🎯 Target Calculation:
• Head = 3,400
• Neckline = 3,300
• Distance = 100 points
• Target = 3,200
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🟢 How To Trade It:
1️⃣ Don’t preemptively sell during the right shoulder.
2️⃣ Wait for a confirmed breakdown.
3️⃣ Enter a short position targeting 3,200.
4️⃣ Set your stop loss above the right shoulder.
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🟢 Final Advice:
✅ The Head and Shoulders is powerful if confirmed by volume.
✅ Always wait for the neckline break—otherwise, it could be a false signal.
✅ Keep monitoring volume for confirmation.
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🔥 Be disciplined in your analysis and decisive in your execution.
🔥 As Warren Buffett said:
“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
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If you found this valuable, let me know—I’d be glad to prepare more lessons. 🌟
Futures market
2025-07-03 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: On my weekly chart I think this W4 was too deep to be part of a strong bull trend. 24000 is a decent spot to go sideways rather than up but above 24100 means I’m likely wrong and bears could give up for 24500+. I would not look for shorts until we see better selling pressure again. The Globex spike from 23681 to 23963 was beyond weird. It’s a bull wedge but will likely break out sideways in Globex session. 50/50 for both sides I think.
current market cycle: unclear. bull trend could continue but trading range is most likely
key levels: 23600 - 24500
bull case: Bulls want a retest of 24500+ but they find no buyers around 24000. They tried so many times to print 24000 and today they finally did it again but they would need to stay above 23900 and go sideways until bears give up. Markets can poke at a price long enough until one sides gives up.
Invalidation is below 23860.
bear case: Bears need lower lows again and if they can get below 23860, many bulls could cover in fear of a bigger pullback down to 23700. As of now bears have zero arguments since we only made higher lows since Globex low but we are also barely making higher highs and if we do, they have tails above.
Invalidation is above 24100.
short term: Completely neutral. Can go both way. US markets are overbought and once the profit taking starts, Dax won’t hold up either. Not much interest in guessing which way we go from 24000. Best to sit on hands and wait for a clear and strong signal.
medium-long term from 2025-06-29: Bull surprise last week but my targets for the second half of 2025 remain the same. I still expect at least 21000 to get hit again this year. As of now, bulls are favored until we drop below 23000
trade of the day: Longs since the giant Globex bull spike but had to have wide stops and scale in. Not an easy day.
Gold - This is the official top!Gold - TVC:GOLD - might top out soon:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Since Gold confirmed its rounding bottom in 2019 it rallied more than +200%. Especially the recent push higher has been quite aggressive, squeezing all bears. But now Gold is somehow unable to create new all time highs, which could constitute the a top formation.
Levels to watch: $3.500, $3.000
Keep your long term vision🙏🙏
Philip (BasicTrading)
How to grasp the key entry opportunity in the gold market?The market is changing rapidly, and going with the trend is the kingly way. When the trend comes, just do it. Don't buy at the bottom against the trend, so as not to suffer. Remember not to act on impulse when trading. The market is good at dealing with all kinds of dissatisfaction, so you must not hold on to orders. I believe many people have experienced this deeply. The more you resist, the more panic you will feel, and your floating losses will continue to magnify. You will not be able to eat or sleep well, and you will miss many opportunities in vain. If you also have these troubles, then you might as well keep up with my pace and try to see if it can make you suddenly enlightened.
The non-agricultural data was unexpectedly cold, with a large negative impact. The stochastic indicator in the daily chart formed a golden cross, which was a main multi-signal. The BOLL range shrank, and the range shrank to 3418-3280. This range is the main range. The price pierced up and down the central axis and hovered, waiting for the news data to stimulate. The upper track of the 4-hour Bollinger band is at $3380, and the integer mark of $3400 is also near the high point of gold prices last week. The 5-day moving average and the MACD indicator cross upward, and the KDJ and RSI indicators cross upward. In the short-term technical aspect, gold has a trend of further rebound. At present, the upper resistance is at 3360-3365, and the support position is around 3310-3300.
Gold operation strategy: It is recommended to go long near 3312-3315, with a target of 3330-3340. It is recommended to go short once it touches 3340 for the first time, with a target of 3320-3310.
How to accurately grasp gold trading opportunities?Gold rebounded as expected, and fell under pressure at the 3295-3296 line during the European session. This position was the key resistance level for the previous top and bottom conversion, and the range shock pattern continued. In terms of operation, the high-altitude and low-multiple ideas remain unchanged, and we will continue to pay attention to the short opportunities after the rebound.
📉 Operational ideas:
Short orders can be arranged in batches in the 3295-3311 area, and the target is 3280-3270 area;
If the support below 3260-3255 is effective, you can consider taking the opportunity to reverse long orders and participate in short-term.
📌Key position reference:
Upper pressure: 3295, 3311
Lower support: 3278-3275, 3260-3255
Gold strategy idea suggests shorting at 3291-3293, perfectly capturing the rebound high point! Smoothly reached the profit target of 3275, gaining 18pips! If you are not able to flexibly respond to the market in trading, and are not good at adjusting your trading ideas and rhythm in time with the market rhythm, you can pay attention to the bottom notification 🌐 to get more specific operation details and strategy updates. Let us work together to flexibly and steadily pursue more profits in the ever-changing market!
SILVER Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER is trading in an
Uptrend but the price will
Soon hit a horizontal resistance
Area around 37,32$ from
Where we will be expecting
A local bearish correction
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold is Nearing an Important Support AreaHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 3,340 zone, Gold is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 3,340 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
GOLD Price Accept Very Highly Bullish Pattern.XAUUSD GOLD Price Accept Very Highly Bullish Pattern.
Gold Attacked the Resistance lines 3350 / 3328 as price pulling back to this zone,
Gold futures rise as investors await crucial U.S economic data The previous metal has ticked higher ahead of U.S Nonfarm payroll data due later Thursday the data will be closed analysed for fresh signals on the Economic outlooks for more reasons,
i Expect Gold have a chance to have rise back top resistance 3375 / 3400 we will see today these target in NFP Data Biggest news of month we will expect Big changes and also big highly movement in NFP now we are focus on US Data price could breakout.
You may look details in chart Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis.
Xauusd Expecting Selling movement Gold XAU/USD on the 15-minute chart shows a clear rejection from a key resistance zone near $3332 $3335 marked by the blue rectangle Price initially spiked into this zone but quickly reversed forming a bearish engulfing pattern highlighted with a red circle indicating strong selling pressure
Following this rejection the market structure shifted to lower highs and lower lows suggesting the beginning of a bearish continuation pattern A temporary pullback occurred but failed to break above the previous swing high reinforcing bearish sentiment
Projected Move
Price is currently forming a descending pattern and is expected to break lower
Target 1 $3312 a key support and previous consolidation level.
Target 2: $3295 a stronger support zone highlighted by the black box likely the final bearish target if momentum continues
Conclusion
As long as the price remains below the resistance zone bearish momentum is favored. A clean break below $3312 could accelerate the drop toward the second target Watch for confirmation with bearish candlesticks and volume near support levels
#XAUUSD: Early Mitigation Or Sellers Trap! Let's See Gold dropped after touching 3365 taking price to 3318.Currently ranging market showing confusion over how gold would react to NFP data which is coming out tomorrow. At this moment we are quite certain that price would drop tomorrow either from entry one or entry two. Please use accurate risk management while trading.
Good luck and trade!
Team Setupsfx_
Gold Trading Strategy | July 3-4✅Today's non-farm data was negative for gold across the board. The price quickly dropped from around 3350 to the key support level of 3311, and then bottomed out and rebounded. The psychological barrier of 3300 has not been broken, and the combination with 3311 forms the prototype of a double bottom, suggesting that the long-term bullish trend has not been broken. We entered the long position in the 3324 support area and successfully made a profit.
🔴Short-term support: 3324
🔴Core support: 3314-3318
🟢Short-term resistance: 3355-3360
🟢Breakthrough target: 3365-3370
✅Trading strategy:
🔰You can do long with a light position near 3324. If it falls back to 3314-3318, add positions in batches, stop loss at 3309, and reduce positions in the target range of 3355-3360:
🔰If it breaks through 3360, you can change the stop loss to break-even and exit the market at 3370
✅The current strategy is based on the 4-hour cycle rebound logic. If the Asian session fails to stand at 3335, you need to be alert to the effectiveness of the retracement to 3318 support. Real-time adjustments need to be combined with changes in liquidity during the US session.
✅If your recent trading results haven’t been ideal, feel free to reach out. I’d be happy to help you avoid common pitfalls and improve your performance.
🔴I will provide real-time strategy updates during market hours based on price action — stay tuned.
BREAK THE HIGHI can see gold getting ready to move upside again. If it's in our favour, check the reaction above the price of 3425. it may give other continuation thee above price 3425 to move more upside
OANDA:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
As always, market wins! trade with care. be a part of the market
XAUUSD - BUY Worse than Expected ADP
A loss of 33,000 jobs in June, far below expectations.
Bullish for Gold
Immediate Target : $3,385
The shockingly weak ADP jobs number is bullish for gold. Such a negative surprise amplifies fears about the U.S. labor market and boosts expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. As a result, the U.S. dollar is still under pressure, and safe-haven demand for gold is in focus again.
With gold already in a strong uptrend, this ADP miss provides fresh momentum for a move higher.
Traders position for more dovish Fed policy and continued economic uncertainty.
A drop in Interest Rates
Continued Weaker Dollar
Lower Interest return in Bond Yields
Might as well bet on gold.
Lets see : )
#XAUINR - 25,000 Pts Swing? 2,51,530.50 or 3,14,244.90 ?Date: 30-06-2025
Gold Current Price: 284731
Pivot Point: 282887.70 Support: 277016.06 Resistance: 288804.14
Gold Upside Targets:
Target 1: 294805.12
Target 2: 300806.10
Target 3: 307525.50
Target 4: 314244.90
Gold Downside Targets:
Target 1: 270992.68
Target 2: 264969.30
Target 3: 258249.90
Target 4: 251530.50
Can we expect such a wild swing? yes, it is possible. Watch out for this space. Pivot will play the important role for these levels.
#XAUINR
Continue to short gold, bears will exert force againAffected by the NFP market, gold fell precipitously, almost giving back 50% of the gains in the previous wave, and the short-selling performance was particularly strong; technically, gold successfully built a double-top structural resistance in the 3365-3363 area in the short term, which played a technical suppression role in the short term. As gold fell, the current short-term resistance moved down to the 3340-3350 area;
On the other hand, although gold began to rebound after falling to around 3312, it clearly showed the characteristics of weak rebound, and it did not even stand above 3340 once, and the long forces were insufficient; and technically, a single lower shadow line was not enough to support the continued rebound of gold, so gold still had the need to retrace the support below from a technical perspective; and once gold fell again, it was very likely to test the 3305-3295 area again.
So I think we can take advantage of the rebound of gold to short gold again. We can still short gold with the 3340-3350 area as resistance and look at the target area: 3315-3305-3295.
Will the NFP impact cause the bear market to dominate?📰 News information:
1. Initial jobless claims and NFP data
2. The final decision of the Federal Reserve
📈 Technical Analysis:
In the previous post, I have stated that if the hourly line closes above 3320, gold will fall into high consolidation in the short term. Currently, gold fluctuates narrowly in the short term. I think now we just need to be patient and wait for key points to enter the market. The daily and weekly lines clearly show that the high point of the oscillation range is constantly moving up, and the center of gravity continues to rise. The current market is quietly accumulating momentum, and a new round of weekly and monthly lines are about to rise. Therefore, first of all, I will pay attention to the defensive point below 3320, and then refresh the point below is the previously mentioned 3315-3305. If the point below is touched to get effective support, you can consider going long. Bros who trade independently must strictly set TP and SL to avoid the impact of market fluctuations.
🎯 Trading Points:
BUY 3320-3315-3310
TP 3330-3340-3360
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, confronting your mistakes, and strictly disciplining yourself. I hope my analysis can help you🌐.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD