MNQ1!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/25/2025MNQ1!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 04/25/2025
📈 19430 19580
📉 19140 18980
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Futures market
Analysis of the latest gold price trends!Market news:
In the early Asian session on Friday (April 25), spot gold showed a trend of rising and falling. The London gold price hit a high of $3,370/ounce and then fell back to around the 3,350 mark for consolidation. The international gold price soared by more than $60, shaking off the shadow of the previous day's nearly 3% collapse. The weaker dollar and bargain-hunting provided support, and investors still kept a close eye on the latest news of tariff negotiations. It is worth noting that on Tuesday, the price of gold once soared to a record high of $3,500, mainly due to the market panic caused by Trump's threat to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. However, as Trump suddenly "softened" on Wednesday, not only withdrawing the threat of removal but also sending a signal to ease the trade dispute, the gold price quickly fell back. Subsequently, the Asian power fought back strongly, explicitly demanding that the United States cancel all tariffs and clarifying that trade negotiations had not yet begun. This statement once again ignited market risk aversion. Trade uncertainty and a weak dollar, gold prices ended their previous two-day decline on Thursday and climbed above $3,300/ounce. The sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields also supports the rise in international gold prices. This trading day, we will continue to pay attention to the IMF-World Bank Spring Meeting attended by global financial leaders. In addition, we will pay attention to news related to the international trade situation and geopolitical situation. As a traditional safe-haven asset, the demand for gold has dropped sharply, and the price has lost support and started to fall. For participants in the gold market, the impact of this price plunge is self-evident. The stock prices of gold mining companies have fallen accordingly, and the production capacity that was expanded in the early stage due to the rise in gold prices may face the risk of shrinking profits; jewelry retailers are in a dilemma. The value of gold inventory purchased at high prices has dropped significantly. If the selling price is adjusted, they are worried about affecting sales performance. For ordinary investors, especially retail investors who have recently chased high prices to buy gold, they are under tremendous psychological pressure and asset losses.
Technical Review:
Gold 1-hour moving average is still in the form of dead cross selling arrangement, and gold fell back after rising, so gold is now beginning to fluctuate. Although gold broke through yesterday's high of 3367, gold did not rise directly after breaking through, but rose and fell, so gold buying may just be a false break of yesterday's high of 3367. For the time being, gold is still fluctuating in a large range!The hourly moving average is glued together, the RSI indicator is adjusted in the middle axis, and the price hourly chart is running strong in the middle and upper track of the Bollinger band. The gold price in the four-hour chart is still running in the middle and lower track of the Bollinger band, the middle track is suppressed at 3375, and the RSI indicator is also adjusted in the middle axis. In the short term, gold is likely to continue to fluctuate in a wide range, and the band still maintains the main layout of selling at high prices and buying at low prices.
Today's analysis:
The wave peaked at 3500 and hit a low of 3260 in the US market on Wednesday. It fell by 240 US dollars in two trading days this week. The force was very strong and the trend was very panic. However, the big cycle of gold this year is still a buying trend. Don't be affected by the adjustment of the small cycle. In the bullish rhythm, the adjustment is an opportunity to buy. Therefore, once the adjustment is over, you can start buying bullish.From a technical point of view, the daily line stands firmly above the 10-day moving average, which is an important reason for the current strong unilateral trend of gold. For the time being, the daily mid-term Bollinger has not closed. Don't guess the top when it rises. Look at 3400 first, then look at the gains and losses of 3500. Don't guess the high when it breaks. The performance of the H4 mid-term is obvious. The bottom is above the lower Bollinger track and the 60-day moving average, and the Bollinger just closes. This is a very obvious performance of stopping the decline and bottoming out. Now the Bollinger is closing. From 3260, it will take at least 3500 to the upper Bollinger, so this range is very large! If gold breaks through the 3370 level again, then gold will truly become strong. Even if it is a fluctuating rise, we must patiently wait for the opportunity to continue to fall. The market is changing rapidly, and the recent gold market is like this, with ups and downs, so it is not surprising. Therefore, don’t think that gold has reversed after a wave of increases.
Operation ideas:
Buy short-term gold at 3322-3325, stop loss at 3313, target at 3360-3380;
Sell short-term gold at 3383-3386, stop loss at 3395, target at 3320-3330;
Key points:
First support level: 3332, second support level: 3320, third support level: 3300
First resistance level: 3370, second resistance level: 3386, third resistance level: 3408
Gold swept wide and returned to low levelFrom the perspective of the daily line, yesterday's rebound relied on the short-term moving average to close positive, but the rebound was not very strong and the continuity was poor. If it can continue to close positive today, it will lay the foundation for an upward trend, and then it can be seen to gradually strengthen. If it closes negative today, or even falls below the short-term moving average, then gold may fall again.
From the previous round of bottom support 2790, there is a triple bottom, and there is a bottoming process. Therefore, gold cannot be too optimistic about returning to a strong bull market at present, and still has this psychological expectation.
[ TimeLine ] Gold 28-29 April 2025Hello everyone,
📅 Today is Friday, April 25, 2025
I will be using the High-Low price levels formed on the following dates as reference points for potential trade entries:
📌 April 28, 2025 (Monday)
📌 April 28 & 29, 2025 (Monday & Tuesday)
🧠 Trading Plan & Notes:
✅ Gold has broken its ATH multiple times over the past two weeks—volatility remains high
✅ Gold has significant reversal more than 2000pips from its ATH 3500 to 3260
⚠️ If the formed range is big, reversal entries or trades based on Fibonacci levels may be more appropriate
✅ I will personally trade both signals as part of my ongoing research and strategy
⚠️ If you're unsure or risk-averse, consider skipping April 28 & 29 signal
📋 Execution Plan:
🔹 Wait for the price range from the candles above to fully form (marked with green lines)
🔹 Entry will be triggered upon breakout, with a 60-pip buffer
🔹 If the trade hits Stop Loss (SL), switch direction and double the position size on the next valid entry for potential recovery
📉📈 Chart Reference:
🔗 Copy & paste this code into TradingView URL : TV/x/9932ommw/
XAU/USD(20250425) Today's AnalysisTechnical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
3334
Support and resistance levels:
3413
3384
3364
3304
3285
3255
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 3364, consider buying, the first target price is 3384
If the price breaks through 3334, consider selling, the first target price is 3304
XAUUSD 1H TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS The image displays a price chart for XAUUSD (Gold against the US Dollar) on a 1-hour timeframe.
Key observations:
Uptrend: The price has generally been in an upward trend from early April.
Recent Peak and Correction: There was a recent high around April 22nd, followed by a downward correction.
Support and Resistance Levels: Horizontal lines indicate potential support around 3,288.35 and resistance around 3,383.15. Another resistance level is visible higher up near 3,420. A lower support level is marked around 3,166.57, and a significant support zone is highlighted near 2,956.57Current Price Action: The price is currently fluctuating around the 3,309.20 level.
Wheat Market Signals: Trading the US Ending Stocks SurgeThe wheat market is sending mixed signals in April, according to the latest WASDE report. The report, released on April 10, projects US wheat ending stocks at 846 million bushels, up 27 million bushels from the previous estimate, marking a 22% increase year-over-year. Despite this supply increase, the season-average farm price remains steady at $5.50 per bushel. These dynamics may offer some pretty good opportunities to capitalize on short-term price movements in wheat futures.
US Wheat Market: A Supply Surge with Stable Prices
The WASDE report details a notable shift in the US wheat market for the 2024/25 season. Ending stocks are now projected at 846 million bushels, a 27 million bushel increase from the prior estimate, driven by higher imports and reduced exports. Imports are up 10 million bushels to 150 million, the highest since 2017/18, with increases across Hard Red Spring (HRS), Durum, White, and Hard Red Winter (HRW) classes. Meanwhile, exports are lowered by 15 million bushels to 820 million, reflecting reductions in HRS and HRW shipments due to weaker global demand.
Despite this supply buildup, the season-average farm price for wheat remains unchanged at $5.50 per bushel. This price stability suggests a market in balance, but the increased ending stocks—now 22% above last year’s 696 million bushels—introduce bearish pressure. Domestic consumption is slightly down, with seed use reduced by 2 million bushels based on the March NASS Prospective Plantings report, while feed and residual use holds steady at 120 million bushels.
Global Context: A Tightening Supply Picture
Globally, the wheat market tells a different story. The WASDE report projects 2024/25 world ending stocks at 260.7 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from the prior estimate but still 3% below last year’s 269.06 million tons and the lowest since 2015/16. This decline is driven by reduced production in Saudi Arabia (down 0.3 million tons) and the EU (down 0.2 million tons), as well as lower beginning stocks in Uzbekistan and Israel. Global trade is also down, with exports cut by 1.3 million tons to 206.8 million, primarily due to lower shipments from Russia (down 0.5 million tons), Australia (down 0.4 million tons), and the EU (down 0.3 million tons), only partially offset by increases from Canada and Ukraine.
The contrast between rising US stocks and declining global stocks creates a nuanced trading environment. While US oversupply may weigh on prices domestically, the global tightness—especially with stocks at a 9-year low—could provide a bullish counterforce if demand picks up or supply disruptions occur in key exporting regions.
Trading Signals and Strategies
With US ending stocks surging to 846 million bushels—a 22% year-over-year increase—the immediate outlook leans bearish, as this increased supply typically exerts downward pressure on prices, yet the stable season-average price of $5.50 per bushel indicates a potential support level, reflecting the market’s ability to absorb the supply growth without a price decline. On the global stage, the 260.7 million ton ending stock level, the lowest since 2015/16, introduces a bullish undercurrent, particularly if export demand strengthens in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa or Southeast Asia. Chicago Board of Trade Wheat Futures CBOT:ZW1! are currently trading at $5.476 per bushel, down from a recent high of $5.675, aligning with the bearish setup. A bearish MACD crossover (MACD at 0.32, signal at 0.44) confirms downward momentum as prices have broken below the 50-day moving average resistance at $5.65. A break below $5.45—a level could signal a drop to $5.40, offering a 1% downside. Conversely, for a bullish reversal, holding above $5.45 and breaking through $5.50 with strong volume and a MACD crossover above the signal line could propel prices to $5.675, a 3-4% gain, particularly if export demand rises or weather issues impact key producers. Alternatively, with the recent price action, wheat futures may trade in a range between $5.40 and $5.50 in the near term, allowing traders to buy near $5.40 with a stop-loss below $5.35 and sell near $5.50 with a take-profit at $5.55.
Risks to Watch
Trading wheat futures carries risks, particularly given the mixed supply signals. On the bearish side, the US ending stock surge to 846 million bushels could lead to further price weakness if domestic demand doesn’t absorb the excess, especially with exports down to 820 million bushels. Looking from the other side of a hand, the global stock tightness at 260.7 million tons introduces upside risk if supply disruptions occur—note the WASDE’s historical data showing a 3.1% root mean square error for world ending stocks, meaning projections can vary by up to 14.5 million tons. Broader market volatility from the US-China trade war could impact commodity prices if recession fears intensify.
So, the wheat market in April, as detailed in the WASDE report, presents a dual-natured trading opportunity. US ending stocks surging to 846 million bushels signal bearish pressure, but the global stock decline to a 9-year low of 260.7 million tons offers a bullish counterpoint. With ZW futures at $5.476 per bushel, traders can pursue a bearish setup targeting $5.40 for a 1% downside, a bullish reversal to $5.675 for a 3-4% gain, or a range-bound trade between $5.40 and $5.50.
XAUUSD SHORT SIGNAL SETUP ANALYSIS | READ THE CAPTION BELOWGOLD/XAUUSD Short Trade Setup Alert 🚨
Looks like bears are stepping in—price breaking below key support zone! Let’s watch for a clean sell opportunity!
• Trade Setup
📍 Entry Zone: 3,290 – 3,300
🎯 Take Profit 1 (TP1): 3,220
🎯 Take Profit 2 (TP2): 3,150
🎯 Take Profit 3 (TP3): 3,100
❌ Stop Loss (SL): 3,342
Technical Breakdown:
✅ Bearish market structure with lower highs and lower lows
✅ Breakdown from consolidation zone
✅ Increased bearish momentum and volume confirmation
Risk smart. Trade with discipline. Let the market come to you!
Gold Signal Alert – Short-Term Sell, Long-Term Buy Opportunity
📉 Signal Type: Short-Term Sell
📈 Long-Term Bias: Strong Buy
🕒 Timeframe:
Entry based on 15m/1H chart
Directional confirmation from 4H and 1M trend
🎯 Aim
This signal aims to catch short-term bearish momentum on gold (XAUUSD) before a major bullish continuation. We’re targeting liquidity grabs and premium selling areas short-term, then positioning for long-term bullish strength aligned with monthly and macro structure.
📌 Short-Term Setup:
Price has tapped into a supply zone
Bearish order block identified on 1H
Sell limit placed slightly above current price action
Stop loss above recent swing high
Targeting internal liquidity or discount zone for take profit
🔮 Long-Term Vision:
Monthly bullish trend remains intact
Accumulation phase below key support
Planning to enter buys at premium discount after retracement
Expecting continuation towards higher time frame liquidity zones
✅ Smart Money Concept (SMC) based
✅ Price Action + Liquidity + Order Blocks
✅ Swing structure respected
Gold swept wide and returned to low levelTechnical analysis of gold: This week, the trend of gold has been ups and downs, opening at 3332. So far, the high is 3500 US dollars and the low is 3260 US dollars. It surged by 100 US dollars on Monday, and continued to rise to 3500 highs in early trading on Tuesday before falling back. It plunged nearly 240 US dollars on Tuesday and Wednesday. The volatility slowed down on Thursday, and the overall intraday fluctuations remained within 3367-3288. Today, the weekly line closed, and the weekly line will compete for the closing of the Yin-Yang cross K line. The short-term is more intense. Judging from the consolidation on Thursday, there is no further decline, which also leaves room and suspense for today's weekly closing. If the weekly line closes lower, it is expected to adjust further next week. Pay attention to the closing strength and weakness of the weekly K line this week.
Gold may hit a second bottom today!From the perspective of the daily line, yesterday's rebound relied on the short-term moving average to close positive, but the rebound was not very strong and the continuity was poor. If it can continue to close positive today, it will lay the foundation for an upward trend, and then it can be seen to gradually strengthen. If it closes negative today, or even falls below the short-term moving average, then gold may fall again.
From the previous round of bottom support 2790, there is a triple bottom, and there is a bottoming process. Therefore, gold cannot be too optimistic about returning to a strong bull market at present, and still has this psychological expectation.
SHORT OIL Break of support and retest**Oil Sell Setup:**
1. **Entry:**
- Sell at rejection of 0.50 daily Fib + 20 MA confluence
- Wait for bearish confirmation candle
2. **Stop Loss:**
- Place above recent swing high
3. **Take Profit:**
- Target 1: Recent swing low
- Target 2: Previous major swing low
- Target 3: Major support level from higher timeframe
4. **Confirmations:
- Rejection candles at confluence zone
- Failed attempts to close above 20 MA
5. **Management:**
- Scale out at targets
- Move stop to breakeven at first target
Gold surged and then fell back, and may hit a second bottom!Gold's high-rise and fall-back trend shows fatigue. If the trend line breaks, it will continue to be bearish. In the European session, it will rebound to 3336 and short. The support below is 3306. If there is no rebound but it continues to go down at a low level, then the first touch of 3306 can be seen as a small rebound. If 3306 breaks, then the rebound in the evening will continue to be short, and it is expected to test the lower level for the second time.
Watch to Watch - Gold Bearish Head and ShouldersWith the recent strength in US equities, the long gold trade may be over. Gold broke below a key trendline and formed a distinct bearish head and shoulder pattern signifying possible downside pressure coming up today and into the next week. Definitely worth watching for futures traders. First target with a break lower would be around $3240 with a lot of downside from there.
GOLD (XAUUSD, 1H) Double Bottom & Continuation to Lower FibsOn the 1-hour chart, gold attempted to form a double bottom structure, which initially showed bullish potential. However, the price action quickly reversed near resistance, failing to sustain above key EMAs and trendline zones. This invalidates the reversal attempt and reaffirms the current bearish structure within the descending channel.
The price is now trading back below broken support and heading towards deeper Fibonacci retracement levels, with visible supply pressure and repeated failure to hold any bullish breakout. Volume has shifted lower on rallies, confirming weak buyer commitment.
Downside targets (Fibonacci structure):
– $3251 – 0.382 retracement
– $3221 – 0.618 retracement (primary structural support)
– $3165 – 0.786 extension zone (final support before breakdown scenario)
The descending wedge remains valid. Unless the market reclaims $3305–$3334 with strong confirmation, the corrective leg toward the lower support zones is likely to continue. A clean break below $3220 would open the door for a move toward the $3160s.
The failed double bottom setup confirms bearish continuation. Structure, volume, and trendlines all align with a move lower. Watch for reactions at $3221 and $3165 as critical levels.
COTTON is BullishPrice was in a downtrend, however the bulls seem to have assumed control of the price action as a bullish divergence has emerged on daily time frame. If previous lower high high is broken with good volume then we can expect a bullish reversal as per Dow theory. Targets are mentioned on the chart.
Silver INTRADAY uptrend continuation supported at 3247Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 3383
Resistance Level 2: 3414
Resistance Level 3: 3457
Support Level 1: 3247
Support Level 2: 3184
Support Level 3: 3112
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Copper – Sell Limit Setup (Medium-Term Swing)Published: 11/04/2025
Trade Summary
Type: Sell Limit
Entry: 9,655
Target: 8,725
Stop Loss: 10,020
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~2.5:1
Duration: Medium-Term Swing
📊 Technical View
Copper has staged a sharp rebound after the March 2025 decline. Price has now returned to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a common turning point. There is also an unfilled gap at 9,669.6, which may act as a magnet for price and attract renewed selling interest.
🧠 Fundamental Insight
Institutional interest has been steadily declining since January 2025, indicating smart money is pulling back. Meanwhile, retail traders have increased their exposure—a typical contrarian indicator pointing toward potential further downside.
📆 Seasonal Trend
From April 18 to June 27, copper prices have historically declined 64.8% of the time over the past 55 years, with an average drop of 3.60%.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold Technical Analysis, April 25📊This week, the trend of gold has been ups and downs, and the price has been running in a high volatility range. At present, the market is fiercely competing around the cross candlestick pattern as the weekly line is about to close. If it finally closes at a low level, it may indicate that the gold price will continue the adjustment trend next week. Therefore, the strength and weakness of the closing of the weekly line this week will have an important impact on the direction of the market.
📊Today's early trading market once again repeated the rhythm of yesterday. The gold price quickly rose after opening, reaching a high of around 3370, but stopped before this key resistance level, and then turned to fall, and broke through the low point of yesterday's European and American trading in one fell swoop, and rebounded slightly after reaching a low of 3287.
📊From the market point of view, today's gold price fell below the key support point, suggesting that the short-term short-selling force is dominant. The current market focus has shifted to the 3260 line, which is an important low point in the previous downward trend and a short-term long-short watershed. If the gold price effectively falls below this support level, the market may enter a deeper round of adjustment, and the short-selling trend will be further confirmed and expanded.
📊From the hourly chart, yesterday's low was at $3306, and today's rebound just stopped near this position, indicating that this position has turned into a short-term suppression position. Further upper resistance is 3315. If it breaks through, it is necessary to observe the suppression of 3328.
📊In terms of lower support, the first focus is on 3287 touched today. If it is lost, the next key support is the previous low of 3260. Once this position is also broken, the bearish trend will continue to deepen, and the gold price may usher in a deep adjustment at the mid-term level.