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Gold half year and monthly review 7/1/2025 In 6M timeframe, after breaking 2080, the price increase is showing exponential curve. There is no sign of slowing down. I am expecting continuous growth in the 2nd half of 2025. In 3M timeframe, gold is now in its 1st wave only. 2nd wave is expected to be at least same ratio of 1st wave, which will be at least up to until 4080. PS: You can copy my trade by clicking the link in my signature. As shown in the chart, monthly we have a huge green bar in April 2025. May and Jun monthly bar stayed well within it. Also Jun 2025 bar is green. I am expecting a continuation of bulls for July 2025.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by SteadyFund
XAUUSD - Breakdown: Israel-Iran Conflict - RISK OFFTVC:GOLD Weekly Outlook: Spot ended Friday with bullish momentum, primarily driven by a Risk OFF sentiment in financial markets due to the Israel-Iran conflict, we also had fundamentals like CPI & PPI, US-China talk during the week which supported the bullish momentum. With escalations over the weekend, Israel has continued its attack on key military and nuclear facilities as well as Oil Infrastructure including Iran's South Pars gas field, these escalations could lead to more safe heaven inflows and a RISK OFF sentiment when market opens, which could point to higher targets of 3450-3500, above 3430, the next resistance is 3500, which with such instability can easily be broken through. However Iran has communicated to the US that if Israel stops their attacks, they will also consider the same, Trump has drawn a red line and said they will not get involved unless American Lives are directly targeted, this is in spite of Israel requesting them to join the war multiple times as Israel does not have the equipment and armaments to complete the job. Trump wants them to make a deal and become the hero that accomplished it, this remains to be seen , but if talks do happen, expect a Risk ON environment where a drop below 3450 will find support/ bounce at 3350, 3304 and below that opens the floor to 3275 and below. We also have Monetary Policy this week with Pappa Powell speaking mid week, I believe rates will stay the same, with cautious Fed Policy, No rate change in June with inflation fears due to Tariffs. As always risk management should be No 1, combined with Tech and Funda knowledge, Trade Safe, this week will be very interesting. The next down move on Gold will depend on whether we get de-escalation headlines and if so then RISK ON with money moving into Risk Assets like the Stock Markets
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JOHNDOUGHFX
Gold (XAUUSD) 4H Technical Outlook In line with my previous projection, price dropped from the 3330 region toward the key level around 3224, bottoming out at 3245 after sweeping liquidity—forming what now appears to be a potential double bottom. However, the rally from 3245 looks more like a liquidity build-up than a true reversal. This suspicion is strengthened by Silver’s behavior, as it failed to confirm any bullish structure shift last week and isn’t participating in the rally as expected. Currently, Silver is trading back into a premium zone around 36.27. With that in view, it would be ideal for Gold to revisit the 3322 region, offering a cleaner and more logical sell opportunity with defined risk. That said, overnight volatility during the Asian session could still lead to unexpected movements and early reversals.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Dolf_1x
XAUUSD - Breakdown: - RISK ON/Gold Pullback - Continued Analysis Remains the same, Gold took a straight nose dive to 3250 during Asia Session, It has reacted at a psy number level, I do not see this as a strong buy since price has not moved away significantly, price remains in the range and so it tells a story that bulls are not in control yet, this is a just a healthy rebound before Gold goes bearish again. I will only change course if Gold breaks above 3330 and can sustain above those levels. The weekly closed below 3300 last week, breaking a Key Area and Number. 3250 has been tested multiple times, so at each test it will go weak. You can long Gold as scalp trades as per my analysis into the 3320 - 3330's or high 3330's before I expect to see the next drive lower! I do not trade Monday's and watch PA setup, those of you who caught the 3250 Psy level buys, Congratulations!!!, hold runners for some more heavy lifting.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by JOHNDOUGHFX
XAUUSD - Breakdown: - RISK ON/Gold Pullback - Continued Drop Last week we killed TVC:GOLD with that almost 100$ drop!!, it was the perfect week for us as our forecasted analysis was accurate with Fundamentals and Technical combined which has always proved to be a very powerful combo when trading $Gold! This week I am expecting a continuation after a slight pullback, the pullback may or may not happen and it could be a straight drop, as always, the market is always right and all we can do is forecast and hop onto the train at the right price point, It will be a very news heavy week, we have NFP being declared early as July4th falls on the Friday and US Markets will be closed on Friday; Tuesday, Wednesday & Thursday will have all the heavy news, ISM manufacturing and services PMIs , JOLTs data & ADP while the much-anticipated June NFP to finish the week Thursday. Check the chart attached and lets dive into the number and price points! I will send updates throughout the week as required, but either way I will always put my balls on the line and shoot out a forecast, If I am wrong I will learn and adapt accordingly, Markets are starting to get very optimistic and this week will again be an interesting one, I believe we are going to be seeing Risk ON environments with more optimism. Interested pullback area to continue lower + prices points: 1. 3295 2. 3301 3. 3310 4. if it moves above these levels, I will then look at my fib price points which are 3319-3330-3340 Take Profit levels & Potential Buy Areas : 1. 3250-3245 2. 3206-3195 3. 3155-3148 4. 3118-3125
FX:XAUUSDShort
by JOHNDOUGHFX
Gold Slips Back Into Range – 4H Downtrend in Play Despite RejectGold has broken back inside the higher time frame range, with price stalling on the monthly chart — a clear sign of indecision. On the 4-hour chart, a clean downtrend is forming and appears likely to hold. Despite visible rejection wicks suggesting temporary buying pressure, the broader structure hints at a potential retest of the broken trend line or even a fakeout to trap early buyers. If the trend remains intact, we could see price rotate lower toward the bottom of the range.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSDShort
by TradingNutCom
XAUUSD Traders – The ONLY Timeframes That Matter🎓 XAUUSD Traders – The ONLY Timeframes That Matter If you want to stop being a liquidity snack for the big players, you must know which timeframes actually reveal what the market makers are doing. Here’s your complete educational guide for XAUUSD: ⸻ 🔍 1️⃣ The 4-Hour (4H) – The Market Maker Blueprint ✅ Why Watch It? This is where the real accumulation and distribution happens. Market makers build and unwind positions over multiple sessions—London and New York. If you want to see the big plan, this is your chart. ✅ What to Look For: • Strong rejection candles near key resistance (3330–3350). • Fake breakouts with no follow-through. • EMA21 and SMA50 acting as dynamic resistance. • High-volume candles marking where the big boys stepped in. 🎯 Tip: If the 4H chart is bearish, every bounce on smaller timeframes is suspect. ⸻ ⏰ 2️⃣ The 1-Hour (1H) – Timing the Trap ✅ Why Watch It? 1H is perfect for seeing the moment the trap is set. This is when price pumps into resistance or dumps below support—just enough to trigger stops. ✅ What to Look For: • Quick rallies on low volume (pump phase). • Reversal candles forming right after a breakout. • Delta flipping negative as price pushes higher (hidden selling). 🎯 Tip: Combine 4H structure with 1H confirmation—this is where precision timing happens. ⸻ 🎯 3️⃣ The 15-Minute (15M) – Entry Execution ✅ Why Watch It? 15M shows micro-structure and liquidity hunts. This is where you confirm whether that big 1H candle was real—or just a head fake. ✅ What to Look For: • Sharp wicks that stop out traders (liquidity flush). • Tight consolidation after a failed breakout. • Rejection patterns before price reverses. 🎯 Tip: Use the 15M to pull the trigger—not to overthink. ⸻ 📅 4️⃣ The Daily – Bias Confirmation ✅ Why Watch It? Daily sets the macro tone. You must know whether you’re fighting the bigger wave. ✅ What to Look For: • Where price closed relative to EMA21 and SMA50. • Big bearish engulfing candles. • Volatility expanding or contracting. 🎯 Tip: If daily is bearish, you have extra confirmation to fade pumps. ⸻ ⚔️ How to Combine These Timeframes Here’s the professional workflow: 1️⃣ Daily – Define bullish or bearish bias. 2️⃣ 4H – Spot the setup zone (accumulation or distribution). 3️⃣ 1H – Watch the trap unfold. 4️⃣ 15M – Execute your entry with surgical precision. ✅ This is how you stop chasing noise and start trading structure. ⸻ 💡 Pro Wisdom: “Retail traders react to price. Professionals react to price and context.” — Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits ⸻ 🚀 Trade smart. Study structure. Outsmart the herd. #XAUUSD #ForexEducation #PriceActionTrading #MarketMakerSecrets #LearnToTrade
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
Gold Market Outlook – 1st of July | XAU/USD | 30min | by Mohsen # Gold Market Outlook – 1st of July | XAU/USD | 30min | by Mohsen Mozafari Nejad 🔸 **Instrument:** Gold Spot / USD (XAU/USD) 🔸 **Timeframe:** 30min 🔸 **Methodology:** Smart Money Concepts (SMC) + Liquidity + OB + Market Structure 🔸 **Focus:** New Monthly Open Setup --- ## 🔍 Market Context: - **Structure:** Bullish on LTF (MSU) - **Efficiency:** ✅ Clean & Efficient Delivery - **Recent Activity:** Reverse H&S completed + double BOS + CHoCH confirmed - **Price Level:** Trading near key Supply zone (3300–3315) - **Monthly Context:** July begins with bullish momentum & previous session showed aggressive buy-side pressure --- ## 🧠 Technical Breakdown: 1. **Strong recovery** after clearing deep liquidity sweep (Head zone) 2. **Bullish BOS** structure confirmed on LTF → Multiple HH and HL formed 3. Price now testing **Key Supply/OB zone at 3300–3315** 4. Above this zone lies a **Strong High (SH) around 3,350**, a potential liquidity magnet 5. Overall bias is bullish unless strong rejection appears from upper OB --- ## 📌 Trade Plan: | Position | Entry Confirmation Zone | Stop Loss (SL) | Take Profit (TP) | |----------|--------------------------|----------------|------------------| | Long | Above 3,303–3,310 (structure hold) | Below 3,294 | TP1: 3,325 / TP2: 3,340 / TP3: 3,348 | | Short (scalp only) | Bearish reaction from 3,345–3,350 | Above 3,353 | TP1: 3,310 / TP2: 3,290 | --- ## ⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch: - 🔺 High-impact USD news (July 1st releases: Manufacturing PMI / employment preview) - 🔺 Overextension above supply zone without support → trap risk - 🔺 Bull trap risk if price spikes above 3,340 then sharply reverses --- ## ✅ Summary: > **Start of July** could fuel volatility and directional momentum. > The structure is clearly bullish short-term, but upper liquidity zones remain **highly reactive**. > Smart traders will wait for reaction at the 3,340–3,350 SH zone before overcommitting. **Structure:** 🟢 Bullish **Trend:** 📈 MSU **Efficiency:** ✅ Clean **Liquidity:** 🔺 Above SH & Below recent HL --- 📊 Prepared by: **Mohsen Mozafari Nejad**
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mmozafari1357
XAUUSD 4-hour chartXAUUSD XAUUSD is broadly observed within an ascending price channel, suggesting an underlying bullish trend on this timeframe. Key overhead resistance levels include the "Deciding Zone" and a higher "Flip Zone," which have historically acted as supply areas. Immediate support is identified at the lower boundary of the ascending channel, with a deeper green demand zone offering further structural support. The current price action indicates a bounce from the channel's lower boundary, with the "Deciding Zone" (marked with a red circle) presenting the next crucial test for market direction. Disclaimer: The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ManiMarkets
1/7/25 Tight Trading Range Around 20-Day EMA Monday’s candlestick (Jun 30) was a small inside bull doji. In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a follow-through bull bar closing near its high or if the market would trade lower, creating a more neutral or slightly bearish June monthly candlestick instead. The market gapped down at the open but traded sideways to up. The monthly candlestick closed neutral to slightly bearish. The bulls hope the 3980 breakout point area and the 20-day EMA will act as support. So far, the market is holding around this area. They hope to get a retest of the Jun 20 high, even if it only forms a lower high. They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control. The bears want the spike up (Jun 20) to form a major lower high (vs April). So far, this is the case. They want a resumption of the broad bear channel and the third leg down with the first two legs being Jan 17 and May 8. They see the last few days as a small pullback and want another strong leg down. If the market trades higher, they want the follow-through buying to be weak, with overlapping candlesticks, and long tails above candlesticks. They want the Jun 26 high to be a resistance area, forming a double top bear flag. They must create follow-through selling trading below the 20-day EMA to increase the odds of a resumption of the broad bear channel. Production for July should be more or less around June's level. Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent. Export: Up 4% in June. To be seen in July. So far, the market has consolidated sideways after the big spike down on Jun 24. The small tight trading range formed in the last few days indicates the market is in an area of temporary balance. The bulls must create consecutive strong bull bars to increase the odds of a retest of the Jun 20 high. If the market remains sideways, the odds of a second leg sideways to down will increase as we move along into July. For tomorrow (Tuesday, July 1), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar closing near its high. Or will any move up lack sustained follow-through buying, stalling below the July 26 high area? Or will the bears be able to create another strong leg down in the days ahead instead? Andrew
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
The latest trend and strategy of gold on July 1: 1. Core driving logic: Intensified long-short game Risk aversion supports gold prices Geopolitical risks: Trump's tough stance on Iran (considering military action) triggers market risk aversion demand, and bargain hunting intervenes. Uncertainty in trade negotiations: The deadline for negotiations on July 9 may change. If it is extended or broken, gold may be driven by safe-haven buying. Fed policy and economic data suppression Non-farm data is critical: If the US non-farm employment report on Thursday (July 4) is strong (low unemployment rate, wage growth), it will strengthen the Fed's expectations of raising interest rates, which is bearish for gold. Other data impact: ISM manufacturing PMI on Tuesday: If it is below 50 (shrinking), it may boost gold temporarily. ADP employment data on Wednesday: As a non-farm outlook, if it is lower than expected, gold prices may rebound. US dollar trend linkage If the US dollar index strengthens due to economic data, it will suppress gold; on the contrary, if the US dollar pulls back, gold may usher in a technical rebound. 2. Key technical signals and points 1. Trend structure Daily level: The moving average system is in a short position (5/10/60-day moving average is downward), and the short-term weakness was confirmed after breaking the 60-day moving average last week. Key support: 3247 (0.618 golden ratio + May 29 low), breaking the position will open the downward space to 3220-3200. Key resistance: 3282 (last Friday's high) → 3305-3315 (moving average suppression + channel upper track). 1-hour level: The moving average crosses and diverges, MACD runs below the zero axis, the bears dominate but are oversold (RSI is close to 30), and short-term rebound corrections need to be vigilant. 2. Long-short watershed Short conditions: The price continues to be below 3282, and the rebound cannot break through 3305. Bull conditions: After standing firm at 3282, break through 3305, or the 3247 support effectively forms a double bottom. 3. Today's operation strategy 1. Main strategy: rebound high Entry area: 3305-3315 (strong resistance area), stop loss above 3320. Target: 3270→3247, if it breaks down, look at 3220. 2. Secondary strategy: short-term long position at support level (quick in and out) Entry point: 3260-3247 stabilizes (if it rebounds quickly and closes positive in 1 hour), stop loss below 3240. Target: 3282-3300, close the position when encountering resistance. 3. Breakthrough follow-up strategy Break up 3282: light position to chase long, target 3300, stop loss 3270. Break down 3247: chase short, target 3220, stop loss 3255. 4. Risk warning and position management Trade cautiously before non-agricultural data: market volatility may be amplified before the data is released, avoid heavy positions overnight. Risk of sudden geopolitical conflict: If the situation between the United States and Iran escalates, gold may rise rapidly, and stop loss needs to be adjusted flexibly. Strict stop loss discipline: single stop loss does not exceed 2% of the principal, and frequent transactions should be avoided in volatile markets. Summary Gold is currently in a volatile bearish pattern, but there is technical buying support near 3247. The operation is mainly high-altitude, supplemented by short-term long positions at key support levels. Focus: Resistance: 3282→3305-3315 Support: 3260→3247→3220
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Gold_Hunters_Alliance
S&P 500 ABOUT TO TEST CRITCAL RESISTANCE LEVEL!Hey Traders so today watching S&P500 and looks like strong resistance at 6300. Market can do 1 of 3 things like before. Pause, Reverse, or Breakthrough so if your long watch for reversals. If not watch for pullback to new support level around 6135. Can be a nice area to enter new long positions in the buy zone. Place stops under trendline around 6040. Remember trend is your friend so if bullish wait for pullback. However if bearish wait for break below trendline to confirm market wants to break lower. Also watch Nasdaq 100 because it normally leads the market higher. If S&P rises but Nasdaq is holding back it's not a good sign for breakout. Always use Risk Management! (Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.) Good Luck & Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃 Clifford
CME_MINI:ESU2025Long
by TradeTheIndex
The bull-bear game under the Federal Reserve The smell of gunpowder is full! Trump once again "fired" at the Federal Reserve, saying "no one who is unwilling to cut interest rates immediately will be appointed as the chairman of the Federal Reserve", and made a strong statement that the ideal interest rate should be cut to 1%-2%. This "power game" between the White House and the Federal Reserve is injecting new volatility factors into the gold market! Market Express: Thrilling roller coaster trend Gold staged a thrilling scene today: after opening at $3272, it surged to $3281, then plummeted to $3247, and finally rebounded tenaciously. This wave of "deep V" trend perfectly interprets the current market entanglement-there is pressure from above and support from below, and the bulls and bears are fighting hard! Technical decoding: key attack and defense points Bear fortress: 3281 US dollars is the high point of today's rebound, and the 3295-3301 US dollars area above is called the "death line" Bull position: 3250-3255 US dollars area shows strong support, and breaking it may trigger panic selling Decisive battle signal: 3316 US dollars is the "winner" that determines the short-term trend Operation tips: follow the trend and attack accurately We have accurately bottomed out at 3263 US dollars today and have taken profits! Current strategy: Rebound to 3294-3301 US dollars decisively cover short orders, and stop loss is set at 3306 US dollars Target is 3255-3260 US dollars, and you can continue to hold if it breaks Special reminder: The more fierce Trump's "mouth cannon", the more violent the market volatility! Will Powell succumb to political pressure? Will the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman in October trigger a new market? These are all "time bombs" buried in the gold market!
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Trend_Trading_xau