Gold short-term adjustment riskTechnical analysis of gold: The strong rise of gold in the early trading session is indeed a bit surprising. We have to think about whether gold has reversed? Or is it just a rebound? However, gold is under pressure from the moving average resistance, and the sharp rise in the early trading session is often easy to rush high and fall back. Gold 3365 continues to be short, and it falls and harvests as expected. Now it seems to be just a rebound, but the rebound is a little larger.
From the daily level, gold rose strongly during Tuesday's trading, touched the key price of 3500, then fell under pressure and finally closed with a negative line. This trend of rushing up and falling back shows that the upper selling pressure is heavy, and the bulls are strongly blocked by the bears at high levels. Immediately afterwards, gold continued to fall on Wednesday and closed with a negative line again, forming a technical pattern of two consecutive negative lines. This continuous decline further confirms that the short-term bears dominate.
From the 4-hour gold chart, the price of gold has been fluctuating and falling since it was under pressure at the 3500 level. The current price has fallen back to the 3260 level, with a short-term decline of 240 US dollars. Although there is a rebound during the day, the upward trend is currently destroyed. The MACD indicator has issued a death cross change signal, suggesting that the correction trend may have started. Pay attention to the pressure effect of the 3368 level during the day. For the current market, the rebound is just a flash in the pan, and gold has rebounded again, reaching a maximum of 3367 before retreating. It is currently maintained at around 3330. In fact, the market is currently at a loss for long and short positions, and is unable to withstand its huge fluctuations. For the morning's high and fall, we support it according to the shock retracement. If the European session rebounds again near 3358-60, continue to try to short, the target is around 3320-10, and the loss is 3370. The market amplitude is so drastic that I need to strictly implement good operating habits, try with a light position, strictly stop loss, and don't have a fluke mentality! On the whole, today's short-term operation strategy for gold is to short on rebounds and to buy on pullbacks. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3368-3370 line of resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3260-3285 line of support.
Short order strategy:
Strategy 1: When gold rebounds around 3358-3360, short sell (buy short) in batches, 20% of the position, stop loss 6 points, target around 3320-3300, break the position and look at 3260
Long order strategy:
Strategy 2: When gold falls back to around 3260-3265, buy long positions in batches (buy up) of 20% of the position, stop loss 6 points, target around 3300-3330, break the position and look at 3350
Futures market
Gold Wave Analysis – 24 April 2025
- Gold reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 3500.00
Gold recently reversed up from the support area between the upper trendline of the daily up channel from January and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse 3 from last month.
The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous minor downward correction 4 which started earlier from the key resistance level 3500.00.
Given the strong daily uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise in the active impulse wave 5 toward the next resistance level 3500.00.
2025-04-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls in full control, next target is the Globex to 22535 or 22586 on the daily chart. Volume is atrocious and we are in a global trade war but hey, let’s go for another ath I guess. This will crash down to 19000 and lower again, zero doubt in my mind.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 23000
bull case: Bulls want 22535 or 22586 next. Above that there is no reason not to go for 24000. Nothing more to say about this tbh. Measured move from the lows to spike high is 24375 and yes, I think it’s beyond insane and yes I also think we could get there over next days.
Invalidation is below 21700.
bear case: Bears need prices below 21780. Simple as that. They are not doing anything right now but any decently bad news could get us there. If they print 21780, it only means something if they then close the Global gap to 21674. So far away and unlikely that we get a strong bear trend tomorrow. Market will probably need to range first before we could maybe sell again.
Invalidation is above 22600.
short term: Neutral. Having a hard time believing we can do another bull trend up tomorrow. I expect sideways into the weekend. Anything below 21800 is a bear surprise to me
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the bear trap 21900, betting on a higher low and that the big globex gap stays open. I traded it horribly and went long way too late but it was still enough to went green on the day.
Bullish retest or bearish continuationGold has been correcting since it fell from 3,500. Price action may try to retrace back towards the top, because it is trying to transition from this bearish into a bullish move, by finding support at 3,264 (near the previous all-time high). As long as the price action is above 3,264 and it manages to break past 3,350, the yellow metal may try to reach the all-time high again. However, if price action declines past the 3,264 support, the bearish trajectory will likely continue towards 3,200 or 3,165 in search of a stronger bullish support.
Dollar falls, gold rebound stalledFrom the daily gold chart, yesterday's gold price fell sharply and recorded a large real body negative candlestick pattern. The previous price peaked at a relatively obvious high, suggesting that the upper pressure effect is strong. The MACD indicator double line began to turn downward, increasing the risk of further short-term correction. However, the MA5 and MA10 moving averages have not turned downward yet, so you can pay attention to the support and defense of the moving averages. From the 4-hour gold chart, the gold price has maintained a volatile decline since it came under pressure at the 3500 line. The current price has fallen back to the 3260 line, with a short-term decline of US$240. Although there has been a rebound during the day, the upward trend has been destroyed. The MACD indicator double line has issued a dead cross reversal signal, suggesting that the correction trend may have started.
How to plan when gold falls into shock at nightIn terms of news, the recent "Beige Book" released by the Federal Reserve shows that U.S. companies are cautious about the outlook, employment growth has slowed in most regions, and demand in the service industry has shown weakness. At present, the gold price has been fluctuating around 3325. From a technical point of view, 4HMACD has experienced a top divergence. Although it has begun to close after the death cross, the short force still exists. The RSI indicator is currently hovering between 47-50, proving that the market overbought has been repaired, and both the long and short parties are playing a game. Therefore, our recent transactions require good risk management to cope with the current high volatility and high risk of the gold market. From a technical analysis point of view, focus on the suppression effect of 3340-3350 at the top, and focus on the support area of 3310-3300 at the bottom. If it falls below the 3300 line, we will further look towards the potential rebound turning point of 3280-3260.
If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD
GoldXAUUSD 4H: The price level of 3220 is significant. When the chart approaches this level, we can conduct a thorough analysis. Once we receive confirmation in time frame 15 minutes, it may present a favorable buying opportunity.
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25/4/25 FCPO Can Bull Get A Strong Retest of The 20-Day EMA?
Yesterday's candlestick (Apr 24) was an inside bull doji.
In our previous report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create another follow-through bull bar testing near the 20-day EMA, or if the market would trade slightly higher but stall around the 4050-4080 area or the 20-day EMA and reverse lower, forming a retest of the April 22 low instead.
The market traded in a small range throughout the whole day.
The bears see the current move as a pullback following the climactic selloff and oversold conditions.
They want the 4050-80 area or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance.
They want at least a retest of the recent leg low (Apr 22) followed by a strong breakout and a measured move based on the height of the 5-month trading range (AFTER the pullback).
At the least, they want a small sideways to down leg to retest the April 22 low, even if it only forms a higher low.
The bulls see the recent selloff as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range.
They got a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 22) and a lower low major trend reversal.
They hope to get a 2-legged pullback testing near the 20-day EMA. The move could be underway.
They must continue to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a reversal.
If the market trades lower, they want it to form a higher low (vs Apr 22) and a double bottom (Apr 22) followed by a second leg sideways to up.
The market is currently forming a sideways to up pullback.
The bulls want a TBTL - Ten Bars, Two Legs pullback. That means they want any pullback to be minor followed by a second leg sideways to up after that.
The selloff from April 2 to April 22 was strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down to retest the April 22 low (AFTER the current pullback), even if it forms a higher low. Will it happen within the next few days?
If the market forms a retest of the April 22 low, traders will see the strength of the selling. If it is strong, traders may expect a breakout attempt below the April 22 low. If it is weak, we may see more profit-taking from the bears moving forward, followed by more sideways to up trading afterwards.
For tomorrow (25/4/25), traders will see if the bulls can create another follow-through bull bar testing near the 20-day EMA. So far in the night market, the candlestick is a small bull doji trading slightly higher for the day.
Or will the market trade slightly higher but stall around the 4050-4080 area or the 20-day EMA area and reverse lower, forming a retest of the April 22 low instead?
The market remains in a large trading range (4500 - 3850). Traders may Buy Low and Sell High within the trading range.
That means buying in the lower third of the trading range, and selling in the upper third until there is a strong breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
Andrew
XAUUSDPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
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Enjoy Trading ;)
Livestock Price Volatility: Trading Cattle and Hog FuturesThe US livestock market is experiencing significant price volatility in 2025, as outlined in the USDA’s April 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Cattle prices are projected to rise to $206 per cwt, driven by robust demand, while hog prices are lowered to $61 per cwt due to weaker export demand amid tariffs and global competition. These divergent price trends, coupled with production shifts—such as reduced pork output—create a dynamic trading environment for livestock futures. This article analyzes the market with updated price action for cattle futures.
Livestock Market Dynamics: Diverging Price Trends
Cattle prices are raised to an annual average of $206 per cwt, up from the prior estimate of $200, reflecting strong domestic demand and reported data through Q1 2025. This bullish outlook for cattle is supported by higher beef production forecasts, now at 26.767 billion pounds (up from 26.752 billion), driven by heavier dressed weights and increased cow and bull slaughter, though steer and heifer slaughter is lower. Beef exports, however, are reduced to 2.685 billion pounds (down from 2.820 billion) due to tariffs and non-tariff barriers in China, while imports are also down to 4.860 billion pounds, reflecting higher tariffs on foreign suppliers.
In contrast, hog prices are lowered to $61 per cwt, down from $63, as weaker export demand overshadows a slight increase in Q1 prices. Pork production is reduced to 28.090 billion pounds (down from 28.440 billion), reflecting lower slaughter and weights, with the March 27 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicating smaller pig crops in 2024 and reduced farrowings through much of 2025. Pork exports are also down to 6.955 billion pounds (from 7.220 billion), impacted by increased tariffs on US shipments to China and price competition from other exporters, such as Brazil and the EU.
These divergent price movements—cattle prices up 3% to $206 per cwt and hog prices down 3% to $61 per cwt—create a unique opportunity for traders to exploit the volatility in livestock futures, particularly through mean-reversion or trend-following strategies.
Market Context: Supply and Demand Shifts
The broader livestock market context adds complexity to the trading landscape. Total red meat and poultry production is lowered to 108.154 billion pounds (down from 108.467 billion), reflecting declines in pork and turkey output, though broiler production is raised to 47.775 billion pounds (up from 47.700 billion) due to improved returns in the second half of 2025. Beef ending stocks are slightly down to 580 million pounds (from 585 million), while pork ending stocks remain steady at 425 million pounds, indicating a balanced but constrained supply picture.
Global trade dynamics, particularly the US-China trade war, are a key driver of export challenges. The WASDE report notes that pork exports to China face increased tariffs, reducing shipments, while beef exports are similarly impacted by non-tariff barriers. This export weakness, combined with domestic production adjustments, suggests that price volatility in livestock futures will persist, offering opportunities for traders to capitalize on short-term price swings.
Trading Signals and Strategies
The livestock market’s price divergence provides clear trading signals for futures traders. Cattle futures CME:LE1! are showing a shift in momentum with updated price action, while hog futures CME:HE1! face bearish pressure at $61 per cwt. As of April 24, LE futures are trading at $207.725 per cwt, slightly down from a recent high of $207.945, and HE futures are at $60.50 per cwt, setting the stage for distinct trading strategies.
The outlook for cattle remains bullish in the longer term, with prices projected at $206 per cwt and strong domestic demand, but short-term price action suggests caution. LE futures have encountered resistance near $207.945 and are now testing $207.725, with a bearish MACD crossover (MACD at 1.821, signal at 1.823) indicating downward momentum. A break below $207 could signal a move to the next support at $206, offering a 1% downside in the short term.
For a reversal play, if LE futures hold above $206 and reclaim $207.945 with strong volume and a MACD crossover above the signal line, prices could target the next resistance at $209, a 1% gain. This setup would require a shift in momentum, potentially driven by renewed domestic demand or easing export barriers.
For hog futures, the bearish outlook with prices at $61 per cwt and exports down to 6.955 billion pounds suggests a shorting opportunity. HE futures are testing support at $60, with the 50-day moving average at $62 acting as resistance. A break below $60, confirmed by a bearish MACD crossover and an RSI drop below 40, could signal a move to $58, a 3-4% downside. The WASDE’s reliability data shows a 2.1% root mean square error for pork production forecasts, indicating potential volatility if future reports adjust output estimates significantly.
Alternatively, traders can exploit the price divergence between cattle and hogs through a mean-reversion strategy. The spread between LE and HE futures—currently around $147.225 per cwt ($207.725 minus $60.50)—is near a 52-week high, suggesting potential for convergence if hog prices stabilize or cattle prices cool. Traders can short LE futures and go long on HE futures, targeting a spread contraction to $146, while monitoring export data and production updates for shifts in sentiment.
Risks to Watch
Trading livestock futures involves risks, particularly given the export-driven volatility. The US-China trade war, with tariffs reducing pork exports to 6.955 billion pounds and beef exports to 2.685 billion pounds, could further dampen demand if global economic growth slows. The WASDE’s historical data indicates a 90% confidence interval of ±3.5% for pork production forecasts, meaning estimates can vary by up to 983 million pounds, introducing uncertainty. Additionally, domestic demand strength for cattle (supporting the $206 per cwt price) could weaken if recession fears intensify, while unexpected production increases in pork could pressure hog prices further.
The livestock market, as detailed in the WASDE report, offers traders a volatile yet opportunity-rich environment, with cattle prices rising to $206 per cwt and hog prices falling to $61 per cwt. LE futures, now at $207.725 per cwt, present a short-term bearish setup targeting $206 for a 1% downside, though a reversal to $209 or a mean-reversion strategy on the LE-HE spread (currently $147.225, targeting $146) provides alternatives. HE futures offer a bearish shorting opportunity, aiming for $58 with a 3-4% profit potential.
ES how to trade longs!On the 1-hour ES chart we identified an hourly oversold condition against our JLines bands and flagged a long plan this morning (see the 2:39 PM alert). We held the JLines 60 min curl as support, pulled the trigger near 5,375, and rode the move up to 5,475+ for a clean win.
Setup Details
Timeframe: 1 hour
Signal: Hourly JLines curl held in oversold zone
Entry: ~5,375 region
Target: 5,700 area
Outcome: Target reached, +100 handles
This is our repeatable process—spot the JLines support in an oversold zone, plan the entry, and lock in the move.
SILVER Silver (XAG/USD) shows a potential bearish correction setup forming after rejection from the upper resistance channel. Price is currently consolidating below the resistance zone after testing the upper band and is projected to move downward toward the order block and potentially the support trendline.
The chart suggests a bearish move targeting the next level at 32.8153, which aligns with a confluence of support between the lower trendline and the order block zone.
Key Technical Elements:
- Resistance Zone: Price failed to break above33.70, confirming a strong supply area.
- Bearish Projection: Lower highs and consolidation hint at possible downside movement.
- Next Target: 32.8153
- Order Block Trendline Support: Could serve as a bounce zone or continuation support.
Outlook: If price breaks below the intermediate channel support, it may trigger further downside toward32.81. However, watch for reactions around the order block for potential bullish reversals. This setup is ideal for short-term traders monitoring key levels for entry and risk control.
USOILThis chart for WTI Crude Oil presents a bullish continuation setup following a rebound from the support level around 61.50. After breaking above a minor consolidation range, price is now retracing slightly before potentially continuing its upward movement.
The chart highlights a target at63.95, just below the upper resistance zone, which previously acted as a strong supply area.
Technical Breakdown:
- Support Level: Firm bounce near 61.50, confirming demand.
- Minor Breakout: Price broke above local structure and retesting for continuation.
- Resistance Zone: Located near64.00, target aligns with historical supply.
- Next Target: 63.95
Volume spikes during the bounce suggest strong buyer interest. A clean break and hold above 63.00 could open the path toward the $63.95 target. Traders may look for bullish price action confirmation for entry.