Gold: A Complex Outlook After Reacting Near 3,500Gold: A Complex Outlook After Reacting Near 3,500
In today's video, I discussed potential price movements for gold in the coming days. While the overall trend remains bullish, uncertainty is still present.
Be cautious—gold’s direction is not fully clear yet, despite the strong upward momentum. Key price levels and market reactions will help shape the next moves.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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Futures market
Gold and Chart Patterns I’m dropping this XAU/USD M30 insight because my system’s a damn executioner, and you need to see how I hunt the market. This chart is a textbook of bearish patterns—first a bearish three drives showing smart money exhausting buyers with three weakening upward pushes, then a head and shoulders with the neckline break confirming the reversal, and now a bearish shark forming to seal the deal, all playing out within my descending trendlines. Smart money’s been in control from the start, distributing at the peaks, grabbing liquidity, and dumping price to hunt stop-losses below key levels. Supply and demand zones are my edge—supply at the right shoulder of the head and shoulders where sellers stacked orders before the break, demand near the lower trendline where buyers might step in, my target for this bearish move. My checklist operations are a predator’s playbook. I start with harmonic patterns, hunting XABCD structures like the bearish shark I’m seeing now, signaling smart money’s reversal zones. I confirm market structure, looking for breaks of structure to show trend shifts—here, the neckline break confirms bearish continuation. I identify order blocks, those consolidation zones where smart money stacks orders, like the bearish order block at the right shoulder where sellers distributed. Volume profile is key—I check for high volume nodes where price stalls, like the neckline where sellers defended, and low volume nodes that act as magnets, like gaps below the neckline. Top-down analysis keeps me sharp—four-hour timeframe sets the bearish trend, one-hour confirms the break, thirty-minute narrows the setup, fifteen-minute is my strike zone, waiting for a neckline retest. I use Heikin Ashi for confirmation—red candles mean sell, waiting for red on the fifteen-minute at the retest. Fibonacci levels mark my targets—I focus on key extensions to set exits, like targeting the lower trendline of the channel. Gann theory adds confluence—I look for angles or retracements to align with my setups, like a Gann angle pointing to the lower trendline. MACD and RSI measure momentum—MACD’s bearish crossover and negative histogram confirm the downtrend, RSI below fifty with bearish divergence at the right shoulder seals it. Risk management is my law—I risk small to win big, stop-loss above the right shoulder, take-profit at the lower trendline, aiming for a high reward ratio. I monitor news and liquidity traps—fake spikes above the neckline are smart money’s tricks, so I stay sharp. I wait for confirmation—every piece aligns, or I walk, then I document to keep my edge razor-sharp. I’m rating this system a ten out of ten—harmonic patterns, Smart Money Concepts, volume profile, top-down analysis, and now MACD and RSI for momentum make it untouchable. I’ve fine-tuned this over six months, backtesting until it’s a weapon. I need two of you to join me at Academia—let’s hunt together.DYOR
Shieldsmine Diaries
ES Futures-ICT Concepts (Levels for 4/28-5/2)Levels to observe for next week April 28 through May 2, 2025
Based on ICT concepts, There has been a change in the states of delivery (CISD) and Fair value gap (FVG) that has formed on the daily time frame.
This, of course, is after price has delivered lower into a discount area.
Looking for by programs on Monday and Tuesday, given that it’s is NFP protocol.
Areas of interest long & short in the 30Y TreasuryOverall I feel yields will be rising rather than falling, I am not concerned of what the catalyst might be to cause this but simply following the price action particularly on the 10YR Yield. So that being said I am bearish the 30YR treasury. However, if price retraces down to the lower zone drawn (113) we could see a nice rally up to the higher/larger zone drawn.
At the higher zone (117-118) I would make sense that this un-tested area where the supply exceeded the demand would likely hold and we would see a nice short play out. The target(s) on the short side will be updated once price action has come to fruition as price moves into these zones but a move down to at least the April lows of 106 isn't hard to imagine.
GOLD may enter accumulation when the market lacks impact Spot OANDA:XAUUSD prices were broadly steady in Asian trade on Friday (April 25) after a sharp rise in the previous trading day. The current price of gold is around $3,341/ounce, down from the $3,371 price target that readers noted in yesterday's edition. Spot gold prices jumped on Thursday, snapping a nearly 3% decline the previous day, helped by a weaker US dollar and bargain-hunting as investors kept a close eye on the latest news on tariff negotiations.
Market Highlights
Gold prices rebounded on Thursday after their biggest drop this year as bargain hunters entered the market, Bloomberg reported.
China's official broadcaster CCTV reported Thursday that the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump is considering a plan to impose tiered tariffs on China, and White House press secretary Levitt said Trump's stance on tariffs on China "has not softened."
"This is all fake news. As far as I know, China and the United States have never consulted or negotiated on tariffs, let alone reached an agreement. This tariff war was initiated by the United States, and China's attitude is consistent and clear: if you want to fight, we will fight to the end; if you want to negotiate, the door is open. Dialogue and negotiation must be equal, respectful and mutually beneficial," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun.
Cleveland Fed President Hammack made it clear in an interview on Thursday that the Fed has essentially ruled out a rate cut in May. But she also delivered a key message, saying that if there is clear evidence of the economy’s direction, there will be room for policy action in June.
When asked if a rate cut was possible in June, Hammack said: “If we get clear and compelling data in June, then I think the committee will act, assuming we have a clear understanding of the right path for policy at that point.” Markets reacted quickly after Hammack’s remarks, with interest rate swaps indicating the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June rising to around 65%.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
After achieving the target increase twice, which readers should pay attention to in the previous day's publication at 3,371 USD, the price point of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236%, the recovery momentum of gold is being controlled and limited.
In the short term, gold is likely to enter a sideways accumulation phase, waiting for more fundamental breakthroughs. The expected accumulation area is around 3,371 - 3,292 USD, which are the positions of the Fibonacci retracement of 0.236% and 0.382%.
However, with the current position, the main outlook is still bullish in the long term with the trend from the price channel as the main trend and support from the EMA21 as the main support.
During the day, the expectation of short-term accumulation in the main uptrend will be noted by the following levels.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 USD
Resistance: 3,371 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3411 - 3409⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3415
→Take Profit 1 3403
↨
→Take Profit 2 3397
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3204 - 3206⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3200
→Take Profit 1 3212
↨
→Take Profit 2 3218
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Quiet day on gold for a change which was much needed after the moves we've seen over the last couple of weeks. We wanted to see this move yesterday and long into those resistance levels which has worked well today giving a decent capture.
We now have support at the 3315 level which is circled and an area of interest above, which if supported could be a the potential move into the close/Asia session.
Preference now is on taking a back seat and waiting for this to break out of the range, then capture the next trade.
RED BOXES:
Break above 3335 for 3345, 3347, 3355 and 3367 in extension of the move
Break below 3320 for 3310, 3306, 3296, 3286 and 3380 in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
#XAUUSD: We are up 1040+ pips from our previous setup! Gold has risen from 3268 to 3364, helping us make substantial positive gains. However, after reaching the $3364 region, the price dropped around 3310 and has since been fluctuating between 3310 and 3340, making it challenging to trade. There’s a possibility that the price might touch 3400 once again before it drops.
Good luck and trade safely.
Thanks for your support! 😊
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Gold is still Strong; Long-Term!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈GOLD has been overall bullish from a macro perspective trading within the rising wedge pattern in orange.
After rejecting the $3,500 round number and upper bound of the wedge, XAUUSD signaled the start of the correction phase.
Moreover, the $3,100 - $3,150 zone is a strong support.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower orange trendline acting non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #XAUUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DeGRAM | GOLD Held Support Level📊 Technical Analysis
Gold’s slide paused at $3 315; holding here keeps $3 500 – 3 520 in play.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
• PBoC has been buying for 5 months in a row.
• WGC expects strong demand from central banks in 2025.
• Trade wars, tensions in the Middle East and South Asia are causing risks that are increasing demand for gold.
• IMF warns new tariffs could slow growth, boosting safe-haven bids.
• Western ETFs had bought ≈240 t by mid-April.
• DXY is at 3-year lows and yields are down.
✨ Summary
Strong central-bank buying, renewed ETF inflows, softer USD yields and rising geopolitical risk align with chart support, favouring a rebound toward $3 500 – 3 520 while $3 315 holds.
-------------------
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Falling into range oscillation, just get the rhythm pointAnalysis of gold market trend
On Thursday, the gold price remained in the 4H channel, and the middle and lower tracks were in the range of 3370-3260, with overall resistance to decline and correction; this trend is also normal;
1: In the early stage, the market fluctuated rapidly with a hundred points rise and fall, and the kinetic energy consumption was large, so the short-term trend returned to the consolidation trend later;
2: The fundamentals stopped, the technical demand was corrected, and the two resonated, and the gold price could only fluctuate and consolidate in the range; the analysis framework given yesterday was treated according to two intervals; they were 3370-3260 and 3370-3480; the strong and weak dividing point was 3370 above and below;
We can also see that at the position of 3370, the gold price has been under pressure for 2 consecutive times and fell for 2 consecutive times; it can be seen that the strong and weak dividing point of the position above and below 3370!
At present, the market:
1: Trend: There is no trend for the time being, and the range is high, the large range is 3480-3260; the bull trend is stagnant, and the bear trend stops falling. The trend cannot be judged for the time being;
2: Fundamentals, the future fundamentals will focus on the US debt crisis, trade war tariffs, and subsequent war issues, two core things; and uncertain fundamentals
Today's market:
1: 4 hours, the stochastic indicator golden cross, the main long signal; in terms of form, slow bull rise; the current pressure position of the central axis is near 3370, and the probability of breaking upward is relatively high; therefore, the 4-hour can be treated as a shock rise; but the overall situation remains in the large range of 3480-3260!
2: In the daily K-line, the stochastic indicator diverges periodically, and the death cross is downward, which is a bearish signal; however, the high-level sell-off forms a sideways resistance to the decline, and the sideways support is in the range of 3280-3260; the MACD double-line golden cross is glued, and there is no death cross; the indicators in the daily K-line are contradictory, so the long and short trends are difficult to continue, and more range oscillations and high-level consolidation signals are given;
To sum up: Today's short message is still processed according to the 4-hour range; 3370-3260 range and 3370-3480 range; if it stabilizes at 3370, the range processing will be changed; you can take a pullback to do more, and bet on the 4-hour range oscillation upward, and gradually break through the position of 3370;
Have we filled the entire price gap?! If the price maintains stability above $3284, we may see a gradual rise to $3304. I imagine the price there may have maintained the trend and continued rising and withdrawn liquidity from the current support $3271, as long as the price respects this support upwards. Otherwise, we may see a test of the next support $3244 to see if there are more bulls waiting for this price and a strong rebound.
#xauusd #gold
Gold at Risk of Correction as Risk-On Sentiment Returns**Gold at Risk of Correction as Risk-On Sentiment Returns**
Gold is showing signs of weakness after an extended rally, with technical indicators now pointing toward a potential correction. The metal, currently hovering around the 3275 USD level, faces a critical test—if this key daily support breaks, a deeper slide may unfold.
After months of rising prices driven by safe-haven demand, the shift in market tone could weigh on gold. Risk-on sentiment is creeping back in, helping equities while reducing demand for defensive assets like gold. This environment may cause gold to lose some of its recent shine.
Momentum indicators on the daily chart are starting to roll over, and RSI has turned lower from overbought territory. A break below 3275 could open the door to a retest of the 3200–3220 zone.
Additionally, stronger economic data and less dovish central bank talk may reduce the need for gold as a hedge. Real yields have also stabilized, which could further weaken gold’s appeal.
Unless gold manages to reclaim bullish momentum quickly, traders should prepare for a possible trend change. For now, caution is warranted. A close below key support could confirm a short-term reversal and attract further selling pressure.
GOLD Is Very Bearish! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 45m
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 3,304.80.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 3,261.30 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Short in European session, looking towards 3260At present, gold's rise and fall is a foregone conclusion. The upper rebound reached as high as 3371. It reversed sharply in early Asian trading and the market quickly turned bearish. Because of the suppression of short positions at the mid-line cycle and weekly level, even if there is a sharp rebound and breaking high, it is only a bullish behavior. In fact, it is a sell-off after a washout. In addition, the problem of head and shoulders has been talked about in the past few days, which gives the expectation that the gold price will rebound and go empty.
At present, this is just the beginning of short selling. Gold price is suppressed by the right shoulder near 3380. After testing the resistance, it forms a long and short reversal run. It pulls back and breaks the intraday low. I expect it to continue to weaken after rising higher today. Next week, the price of gold will be dominated by a short downward trend. At the same time, the adjustment low of the previous low of 3260 will be broken. The current downward trend has not been reversed!
On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold will focus on the first-line resistance area of 3327-3454 at the top, and the first-line support area at 3286-3360 at the bottom.
If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD CAPITALCOM:GOLD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 04/25/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 04/25/2025
📈 5530 5560
📉 5475 5445
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE
Hey Everyone,
Another smashing day on the charts today with our analysis playing out perfectly. This is an update from yesterday, which you can read below for continuity.
After completing the target yesterday we stated We are now looking for support above the channel top for a continuation or a ema5 lock inside the channel will see price play back into the channel levels.
- We got the support and bounce just outside the channel, just like we said and perfectly inline with our plans to buy dips.
This is now a crucial range test with either support here for a continuation or a break back into the channel. We will be looking for ema5 to confirm the break or failure to identify rejection.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
YESTERDAYS UPDATE
Hey Everyone,
After updating our 1H and 4h chart idea last two days, please see update on our daily chart idea also playing out perfectly.
On our last update we stated that we were seeing price break out of the channel but will need ema5 to lock outside of the channel to confirm the breakout into the next level.
We got the candle body above 3297 and ema5 lock opening 3433 - This was hit perfectly completing this target. No further close above this level confirmed the rejection.
We are now looking for support above the channel top for a continuation or a ema5 lock inside the channel will see price play back into the channel levels.
This is the beauty of our Goldturn channels, which we draw in our unique way, using averages rather than price. This enables us to identify fake-outs and breakouts clearly, as minimal noise in the way our channels are drawn.
We will use our smaller timeframe analysis on the 1H and 4H chart to buy dips from the weighted Goldturns for 30 to 40 pips clean. Ranging markets are perfectly suited for this type of trading, instead of trying to hold longer positions and getting chopped up in the swings up and down in the range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up using our smaller timeframe ideas.
Our long term bias is Bullish and therefore we look forward to drops from rejections, which allows us to continue to use our smaller timeframes to buy dips using our levels and setups.
Buying dips allows us to safely manage any swings rather then chasing the bull from the top.
Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GC (gold) UpdateSo I managed to dump my GLD holdings Tues premarket (left a comment on one of my posts Tuesday morning) because I realized that gold was doing a three drive pattern, got a pump at the end which started to sell off premarket. Not to mention, it had hit the target I posted with the big green arrow.
Also, we have confirmation that my 3 hr indicator does work on GC, it bounced when MFI hit my red line. Did not play it, and it's a pretty weak bounce. GC isn't behaving the same as it did on its way up, I think there are bagholders that bought on the way down that are selling now on the way up. Every pump pump just gets sold off, there were some pumpers afterhours today, but that pump sold off and looks to me like it wants to go red tonight.
Going to wait until I see a big move before I play this again. I think the only reason why it's a little green tonight is because they're pumping commodities, and gold is a commodity. The Euros might sell it off though, seems like they are always the sellers, guessing the gold algos are mainly run by them.
I don't plan on shorting but if you do, the time to do it is when MFI hits overbought.