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Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy | July 2✅Macro Factors Supporting Gold Bulls: 🔶Escalating Trade Tensions: Former U.S. President Donald Trump has explicitly stated that he will not extend the reciprocal tariff suspension set to expire on July 9. He also threatened to impose 30%–35% tariffs on countries including Japan, significantly increasing global trade uncertainty. 🔶Rising Geopolitical Risks: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified again in the Zaporizhzhia region. Additionally, Iran’s nuclear facility activities are triggering concerns over potential U.S. military strikes. These factors continue to drive up geopolitical risk premiums, supporting gold as a safe haven. 🔶Fiscal and Monetary Policies Favor Gold: The U.S. Senate recently passed a significantly larger tax cut bill, projected to increase the federal deficit by approximately $3 trillion over the next decade. This may further erode confidence in the U.S. dollar’s long-term creditworthiness, making gold more attractive as a store of value. Meanwhile, the market still expects the Fed to cut rates in September, possibly twice this year, reinforcing the outlook for lower real interest rates and boosting gold’s appeal. ✅Key Technical Levels: 🔴Resistance Levels: $3344–$3347 is the immediate resistance area. A firm breakout above this zone could lead to further gains toward $3358, and potentially open up room for an extension to $3374. 🟢Support Levels: Initial support lies at $3315–$3310, while strong support is found at $3302–$3300. A break below this zone may trigger a further decline toward $3289. 🟠Consolidation Range Reference: During the European session, gold is expected to maintain a mildly bullish consolidation pattern, with a key trading range of $3310–$3358. Overall bias remains to the upside, but caution is advised near major resistance. ✅Trading Strategy Recommendations: 🔰If gold holds above $3335 and breaks out with volume above the $3344 resistance, consider entering light long positions, targeting $3358, with a potential extension to $3374. A suggested stop-loss is below $3325. 🔰If the price pulls back from the $3344 resistance, watch the $3315–$3310 support area for potential buying opportunities on a rebound. Place stops below $3300. 🔰If $3300 support is broken, short-term long positions should be exited, and traders are advised to stay on the sidelines and observe. ✅Key Short-Term Drivers: 🔷Whether gold can break above the $3344 technical resistance level. 🔷Upcoming U.S. economic data and whether it strengthens expectations for Fed rate cuts. 🔷Any surprise geopolitical escalations or trade-related developments that may act as catalysts. ✅Summary of Trading Outlook: Gold remains in a short-term upward consolidation phase. The $3350 level serves as a key pivot point between bulls and bears. Until a clear breakout occurs, it is prudent to avoid chasing highs and instead adopt a range-trading strategy, waiting for confirmed breakouts before positioning in the direction of the trend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldTradingMasterHub
XNGUSD Technical Update – What the Chart Is Telling Us NowIn this video, I break down the current XNGUSD (Natural Gas) chart using pure price action analysis on the daily timeframe. This update builds on my previous post, where I shared a comprehensive outlook supported by fundamentals, including supply/demand imbalances, geopolitical risks, and long-term LNG export growth. In this video, I focus purely on the technical picture—highlighting key levels, market structure, recent consolidation, and where I see potential opportunities unfolding next. 📈 If you're trading or investing in Natural Gas, this is a must-watch update to stay in tune with the current market dynamics. Remember: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by fxtraderanthony
XAUUSD - Breakdown: - RISK ON/Gold Pullback - Continued IIFrom a technical perspective, if the pre-breakout structure remains intact and gold prices continue to hit resistance and support in the 3344-3330 range, the probability of further gains is high, we need to wait for price stabilization to determine whether the next move is higher toward $3400, or if gold will face a strong rejection from these levels The global macro trend is upward, with downside pressure on the Dollar, we also have Optimistic Markets so this makes investors want to go into RISK ON, where they move investments from Safe Havens to Riskier investments. If we maintain the current macro trend and break through the resistance at 3347 and hold it, the next target will be higher targets. I do not rule out a pullback to 3325-3320 or lower (liquidity chasing) before we look for a higher push. We have important Fundamentals this week, the main driver being NFP, typically NFP week sees all kinds of manipulated and range moves, so trade accordingly. Higher targets are 3352-3355-3367-33375 Lower targets are 3320-3308
FX:XAUUSD
by JOHNDOUGHFX
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISXAUUSD has officially broken out of a well-structured descending channel on the 4H timeframe, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. After multiple rejections from the lower boundary and consistent pressure on the upper trendline, the breakout above the channel confirms a strong upside bias. Price is currently holding near 3330, and I’m now eyeing 3450 as the next key resistance level. This setup aligns perfectly with a textbook channel breakout, offering a solid risk-to-reward scenario for bullish continuation. The breakout comes at a time when macro fundamentals are supportive of gold strength. With rising uncertainty surrounding global inflation trends and mixed economic signals from the US, investors are leaning back into gold as a defensive hedge. The US dollar has shown signs of softening amid increasing speculation that the Fed could pivot to a more neutral stance in the coming months. This gives gold more breathing room to the upside, especially as real yields begin to flatten out. Geopolitical tensions, especially renewed volatility around global trade and Middle East developments, are further fueling demand for safe-haven assets like XAUUSD. The recent breakout is backed by rising volume and momentum indicators turning bullish, making this move more sustainable than a short-term spike. Gold typically thrives during periods of uncertainty and shifting rate expectations, and that’s exactly the phase we are entering now. From a technical and macroeconomic perspective, gold is showing strength just as the broader markets begin to wobble. This breakout isn’t just about structure—it’s supported by real macro catalysts and seasonal demand strength. I'm bullish toward the 3450 zone, and any retest of the broken channel resistance now turned support would offer an attractive entry. Staying focused on gold as a top performer in Q3 could offer strong upside with controlled risk.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
XAUUSD: Market analysis and strategy on July 2Gold technical analysis Daily chart resistance 3400, support 3250 4-hour chart resistance 3355, support 3300 1-hour chart resistance 3345, support 3325 After gold adjusted to 3247, bulls launched a counterattack. This position is the 0.618 support from 3121 to 3451. It rose by $100 in two trading days. Bulls are still strong. Although the war is sometimes tense and sometimes relieved, the global geopolitical environment and economic environment are continuously getting worse step by step. This support logic has never changed. Even if it is temporarily relieved, gold will usher in a correction, but it is only a correction. Overall, the fundamental logic of the bull market has not changed. Gold price reached 3358 and then fell back. Today, it fell below 3336 and continued to fall. The support point below is around 3325/3310. It continues to rise after the fall. It is necessary to pay attention to the specific point where it will stop falling and stabilize during the trading session. As far as the current market is concerned, it hit 3328 today to stop falling and rebound, and temporarily held the support position of 3325. It is bullish based on this position. There are ADP data today and NFP data tomorrow. Pay attention to the impact after the data is released. BUY:3330near BUY:3300near
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ActuaryJ
Gold price focus: 3300-3350 rangeGold price focus: 3300-3350 range 1. Today's latest gold market dynamics Fed rate cut expectations and dollar trend The Fed's June FOMC meeting kept interest rates unchanged, but the dot plot showed that "there may be two rate cuts this year", and the market expects that the rate cut cycle may start in September. The US dollar index fell slightly to around 96, showing a "weak but not collapsed" pattern, because Powell said that the Trump administration's tariff policy delayed the easing policy. Risk aversion sentiment heats up US stocks diverged: technology stocks (such as Nvidia and Tesla) plummeted, and funds flowed to gold for risk aversion. Geopolitical risks: Iran's nuclear facilities continue to operate, the situation in the Middle East is tense, and the International Atomic Energy Agency intervenes in verification, pushing up the safe-haven demand for gold. Trade tariff risks are approaching The deadline for the United States to suspend tariffs on many countries will end on July 9. Trump said it would not be extended, and the market is worried about escalating trade frictions. Trade tariff risks are approaching The suspension of US tariffs on many countries will end on July 9. Trump said it would not be extended, and the market is worried about escalating trade frictions. Economic data contradictions: Weak manufacturing: The ISM manufacturing PMI shrank to 49.0 for four consecutive months in June, but the number of JOLTs job vacancies in May unexpectedly rose to 7.769 million, indicating that the labor market is "strong on the surface." 2. Technical analysis of gold trend Short-term trend (daily level) Support level: $3300-3310 (5-day/10-day moving average), $3276-3280 (key psychological level). Resistance level: $3350-3358 (yesterday's high), $3374 (golden ratio 0.618 retracement level), $3400. Technical pattern: If it breaks through $3,350, it may test $3,400; If it falls below $3,300, it may fall to $3,276. The daily Bollinger Bands narrowed, and the short-term direction faced a choice. Medium- and long-term trends Bullish factors: Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, and inflationary pressures. Potential risks: If the July non-agricultural data is strong (released on July 3), it may reverse the rate cut expectations and suppress gold prices. 3. Today's trading strategy recommendations Short-term trading: Bullish: If the gold price stands above $3,330, you can consider buying on dips, with a target price of $3,350-3,360. Bearish: If it falls below $3,330, it may fall to $3,300, and you can short in the short term, with a target price of $3,300-3,270. Bottom line: Watch for a breakout of the $3,300-3,350 range.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by louisa111222
3330 Played Well , Analysis on point We shared a clear outlook around the 3030 level, expecting the market to move downward — and that's exactly what happened as it dropped below the 3040 zone. This wasn’t just a guess; it was the result of experience, observation, and a careful breakdown of the market structure. Every level we mark is backed by logic and technical insight, and once again, the market respected the level. This proves once again: when analysis is genuine, the market speaks for itself.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by Mr_Chartist
SILVER DAILY TIMEFRAME ANALYSISOn the daily timeframe, silver is currently exhibiting consolidation behavior, indicating indecision in the market. However, a closer look at the recent price action — highlighted by the green circle — suggests a potential shift in market structure. Price appears to be testing the previous support level, and a confirmed break below this zone could signal a change in trend direction. If this support level fails to hold, it would confirm a bearish shift, and I will be looking for short opportunities in the near term. 1. Current Trend: Sideways/Consolidation The chart shows that XAGUSD (Silver) is currently in a consolidation phase after a strong bullish move earlier in May. Price is ranging between approximately $36.80 and $35.50, forming lower highs and higher lows, indicating indecision or accumulation/distribution 2. Price Structure: After the strong bullish impulse around mid-May, price has rejected multiple times around the $36.80 zone, showing strong resistance. The current candles are showing lower closes, and the last candle is bearish, indicating weak bullish momentum and a potential shift to the downside. There is a minor support zone around $35.85 – $35.80, which price is testing now. 3. Key Levels: Type Price Area Resistance 36.78 – 36.80 Resistance 36.45 Current Price 35.98 Support 35.85 – 35.80 Major Support 35.15 – 35.00 Conclusion: The market is undecided right now but leaning bearish if support breaks. Wait for a clear breakout of 35.80 for sell continuation. Alternatively, look for bullish rejection around 35.80 to scalp back to 36.40–36.80 range. Be patient and manage risk carefully in this range-bound condition.
FX:XAGUSDShort
by enwemadufranklyn1989
TiqGPT buy setup ESJul 2, 2025 8:43 AM MARKET NARRATIVE: 1D Timeframe: The daily chart shows a strong bullish momentum with a series of green candles indicating a sustained upward move. This suggests institutional buying pressure and a lack of significant sell-side resistance. 4H Timeframe: The 4-hour chart confirms the bullish sentiment seen on the daily chart, with recent candles forming higher highs and higher lows. This is indicative of continued institutional interest in driving prices higher. 1H Timeframe: On the hourly chart, the bullish trend continues with price action showing smaller pullbacks followed by aggressive bullish candles. This pattern suggests that any dips are being used as buying opportunities by institutions. 15M Timeframe: The 15-minute chart shows more granularity in the price action, with recent bullish candles breaking past previous minor highs. This indicates that short-term liquidity is being taken on the buy-side, likely trapping late retail sellers. 5M Timeframe: The 5-minute chart shows a consolidation pattern forming at higher levels, suggesting a pause in the immediate bullish momentum. This could be a setup for another push higher as the market digests the gains. 1M Timeframe: The 1-minute chart shows choppy but generally upward-trending price action, indicating ongoing micro battles between buyers and sellers with buyers maintaining a slight edge. INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in a phase of accumulation and upward price pressure across multiple timeframes. The consistent formation of higher highs and higher lows across these timeframes suggests a coordinated effort to drive prices higher, likely targeting overhead liquidity pools where institutional sell orders may be placed. LEARNING POINT: "Multi-timeframe confluence of bullish order flow and mitigation of lower timeframe liquidity pools." SIGNAL: BUY SYMBOL: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES1) ENTRY PRICE: $6,266.25 STOP LOSS: $6,250.00 (Below the recent minor low on the 15M chart) TARGET PRICE: $6,285.00 (Next potential liquidity pool on the 1D and 4H charts) CONDITION: Buy limit order at current market price with confirmation of continued bullish momentum on lower timeframes. RATIONALE: Strong bullish momentum across all timeframes, consistent institutional buying, and potential for reaching higher liquidity pools. STRATEGIES USED: Multi-timeframe bullish momentum, liquidity pool targeting. URGENCY: HIGH TIMEFRAME: Short-term to medium-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 90% based on institutional confluence RISK/REWARD RATIO: Calculated as 1:3.8 Risk: $16.25 (Entry Price - Stop Loss = $6,266.25 - $6,250.00) Reward: $18.75 (Target Price - Entry Price = $6,285.00 - $6,266.25) Ratio: 1:3.8 (Reward ÷ Risk = $18.75 ÷ $16.25)
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Mistermoriarty
GOLD 02/07 – WAVE (5) IN FOCUS WHILE ABOVE 3330 SUPPORT📊 MACRO FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT: The market is closely watching today's ADP Non-Farm Employment report (forecast: 99K vs. previous: 37K), which will serve as a key signal ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls. At the same time, President Trump’s remarks on the tax reform bill triggered renewed concerns over the growing US budget deficit, raising demand for gold as a hedge. Overall, the macro outlook remains mildly bullish for gold, especially in the context of a weakening US Dollar and rising fiscal risk. 🧠 ELLIOTT WAVE + SMC STRUCTURE OVERVIEW: Price has likely completed a Wave (4) correction, supported by Fibonacci confluence (0.382 – 0.5 – 0.618 zone). We are now entering Wave (5), targeting the FE 1.618 zone near 3380 – 3413, aligning with key external liquidity and the previous supply imbalance. Short-term structure confirms CHoCH → BOS → MSS in alignment with ICT model, reinforcing the internal structure of bullish market flow. 🔍 KEY LEVELS & TRADING ZONES: 🔼 BUY ZONE: 3306 – 3304 (Demand zone + Fib retracement area) 📍 Stop Loss: 3300 (Below SSL and last swing low) 🎯 Take Profits: 3310 → 3315 → 3320 → 3325 → 3330 → 3340 🔽 SELL ZONE (SCALP): 3388 – 3390 (Potential liquidity grab & reversal) 📍 Stop Loss: 3394 🎯 Take Profits: 3384 → 3380 → 3376 → 3370 → 3365 → 3360 → 3350 📈 PROJECTED SCENARIOS: ✅ Scenario 1 – Preferred (Wave (5) Extension Active): If price consolidates and holds above 3330 – 3335, we expect an impulsive continuation towards 3380 – 3410. Structure remains aligned with bullish wave count, with minor retracements forming flags or wedges. ⚠️ Scenario 2 – Controlled Pullback: If price retraces to 3310 – 3320, it may tap into remaining imbalance before resuming the uptrend. This remains within the bullish framework unless structure breaks below 3300, which would invalidate the current wave structure. 🕵️‍♂️ OBSERVATION: Current Asian session shows tight consolidation after the US correction, suggesting bullish absorption. A breakout above 3345 will reconfirm the momentum and may attract new volume before the ADP release. ⚙️ FINAL REMARK (STRUCTURAL SUMMARY): The overall structure remains bullish with caution, as price currently navigates the tail end of Wave (4) and potentially the start of Wave (5). Patience is required at key levels – chasing price here is risky. Ideal approach: Wait for pullbacks into demand zones or breakout confirmations.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EliseLunaTraders
Gold Short Term OutlookYesterday, we saw gold reclaim the 200MA and push into the $3,352 resistance. Price remains supported above the $3,327 level, keeping the bullish structure intact for now. As long as price holds above $3,327, bulls remain in control, and a breakout above $3,352 could open the path toward $3,364 and $3,383. However, failure to hold above $3,327 may lead to another retest of $3,298, with deeper downside toward $3,270-$3,41 support zone if that level gives out. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $3,352 • $3,364 • $3,383 • $3,400 Support: $3,327 • $3,298 • $3,270 • $3,241
OANDA:XAUUSD
by azgoldtrader
Gold prices have risen sharply. How should we trade gold? 📣Gold news: US Senate passes Trump tax reform bill. Trump wins major victory Trump's signature tax and spending cuts bill passed the Senate on Tuesday. Republican leaders finally convinced dissenting lawmakers after a hard fight, helping Trump win another political victory. Trump refuses to extend July 9 tariff deadline US President Trump reiterated on Tuesday that he has no intention of extending the 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries after it expires on July 9. When asked whether he would extend the suspension of tariffs, Trump replied on Air Force One: "No, I haven't thought about it. I will write to many countries to notify them of the tariff rates they will face." Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to extend its two-day rally, fluctuating narrowly in the Asian session on Wednesday, just below Tuesday's one-week high. The dollar's slight rebound - from its lowest level since February 2022 - put pressure on gold. Moreover, improving market sentiment continues to weaken demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, further limiting its upside. ⭐️Technical Analysis: Trend lines are steadily picking up, and continued buying could move towards 3383 based on today's ADP-NF data 💰Set Gold Price: 💰Sell Gold Zone: 3375-3385 ​​SL 3395 TP1: $3370 TP2: $3360 TP3: $3350 💰Buy Gold Zone: $3315-$3310 SL $3305 TP1: $3320 TP2: $3330 TP3: $3340 ⭐️Technical Analysis: Set reasonable buy orders based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
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