Dollar Index Analysis Follow-UpIn this video, I revisit the analysis I sent out to traders at the beginning of the week, discussing the higher probability price action of the dollar index.
Futures market
Bearish trend with lower highs and lower lowsOn the 1H timeframe, the chart shows a bearish trend with lower highs and lower lows. The price is currently testing the upper Bollinger Band, indicating potential overbought conditions. The ADX is below 20, suggesting a weak trend, but the EMA is sloping downwards, reinforcing the bearish bias. The entry point is set just below the recent resistance level at 3120.00, with a stop-loss above the last swing high at 3130.00 to protect against false breakouts. The take-profit target is set at 3100.00, aligning with key support levels where price action may reverse.
Gold trading on April 3, 2025Market Summary:
The market was shaken as Trump imposed a 10% tariff on imports, triggering fears of a trade war after China announced retaliatory measures. This sparked concerns over a potential economic downturn, pushing gold prices to record highs as the USD faced heavy selling pressure.
Investors, worried about a recession, are now pricing in a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in June. Bond yields fell as the USD remained under pressure. Meanwhile, ADP data showed 155K new jobs, but it failed to support the USD.
Trading Plan:
XAUUSD Buy Zone: 3082 - 3080
Stop Loss (SL): 3077
Take Profit (TP): 3085 - 3088 - 3095 - Open
Wishing everyone an amazing trading day!
The battle for the 3200 mark is imminentThe United States has officially launched a tax increase policy on major global trading partners. The wide range of goods involved and the high tax increase are rare in history. The essence of the tax increase is to require countries to have the same tax rate on US goods as the US export tax rate to them. For example, if Indian motorcycles face a 2.4% tax in the United States, and American motorcycles are taxed 100% in India, the United States will reversely tax Indian motorcycles at 100%. This "tit-for-tat" mechanism directly leads to a surge in the price of imported goods, and companies are forced to restructure their supply chains. Next, once the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, gold is bound to reach a new level. Cutting interest rates is the general trend. When the economy is down, only by cutting interest rates can economic development be stimulated, and raising interest rates will only push the economy to the brink of collapse. The US economy is already in collapse, not on the edge!
After the tariff news, gold quickly retreated to 3105 and then soared, reaching a high of 3168. Gold, hold the position of 3100 US dollars, which is the key to determine the long and short positions. The rising market is not about staring at the high point speculation, but the gains and losses of the key support area. As long as the key support is not broken, the rising trend will not see the top.
Gold operation suggestion: long around 3120-3110
Trump shakes up the markets: Strategies and impact on oilBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
Former President Donald Trump's recent decision to impose across-the-board tariffs has had a strong impact on global markets. European and Asian stock markets reacted with significant declines, while the oil market experienced notable volatility.
Impact on the oil market
The announcement of tariffs has affected global demand and economic expectations, generating downward pressure on crude oil prices. Both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recorded declines of more than 3%, reflecting uncertainty about economic growth and energy demand. In addition, the unexpected increase in US crude oil stocks has contributed to the bearish sentiment in the sector.
Possible scenarios and trading strategies
1. Technical perspective: The drop in oil prices has taken Brent to the $72 level and WTI to $69. If these key levels are lost, we could see an extension of the falls towards $70 and $67 respectively.
2. Hedging strategy: In the face of increased volatility, traders can consider hedging strategies through options or futures contracts, reducing exposure to risk.
3. Opportunities in safe-haven assets: Uncertainty could continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen. The VIX index has shown a rebound, indicating an increase in risk aversion.
BRENT Analysis
Yesterday the US market closed with a very pronounced bearish candle that de-escalated the price by more than 3 dollars. Despite having a previous sequence of candlesticks with relative volume, this did not prevent the day from closing negative for crude oil. Currently, after an Asian session without volume and the price recovering to the POC zone at $72.98, the European market has opened with a bearish session without excessive volume. A clearly oversold RSI can be seen at 29.55% so there could be a price reversal to the upside above the check point as soon as this downtrend eases. However, there has been a crossing of the 50-average below the 100-average that could indicate a bearish continuation until it meets the 200-average at a price that coincides around the indicated control point. It would not be unusual for the market to neutralize possible bullish attempts after a significant pullback after touching the high zone at least 3 times this week near the highs of $75.17. The central channel that has formed seems to be supporting at the lows of $71.88 so perhaps there could be a drop to this price zone to then gain momentum to the middle zone again. If this price does not hold, it could test the $70.27 area.
Conclusion
The U.S. tariff increase, bringing the average rate to 22% (its highest level since 1910), has dramatically changed the global economic landscape. Trade retaliation from the EU and China could further intensify volatility. In this context, it is crucial for investors to closely follow market trends and adapt their strategies to this new environment.
Gold bullish trend remains unchangedThe current bullish structure of gold has not changed. The key support below is still the 3100 line. The strong bullish thinking remains unchanged above 3100. Short-term operations rely on 3100 for defense, and gradually move up near 3116. Focus on the strength of the European session. If the European session rebounds but does not break the high, then short the US session at highs. Pay attention to the resistance of 3140-45 above.
Gold Market Update (XAUUSD) – April 3, 2025Gold (XAUUSD) has been highly profitable after breaking a key resistance level and reaching a new all-time high. The strong bullish momentum has created a parabolic move on the daily time frame (TF), which often signals an impending retracement or correction as the market seeks stability. While the overall trend remains positive, a pullback could occur soon as price action cools down.
On the 1-hour time frame (TF), key support levels are emerging where gold may find temporary stability. The first major support to watch is around $3,080, where the 200 EMA could act as a dynamic support level. If this level fails to hold, a deeper correction could push prices toward the next significant support at $3,050, which has previously acted as a strong demand zone.
Despite the possibility of a short-term pullback, the broader outlook for gold remains bullish, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and central bank policies. Traders should closely monitor these support levels to assess potential buying opportunities or signs of a further downward move before the next leg higher.
gold is bearish#XAUUSD price have reached a new high, now we expect a bearish retracment below 3080 once the H1 or M30 closes below 3117.
Below 3117 have a strong bearish continuation which will target 3100-3080 for new formation, stop loss at 3135.
Above 3142 breakout possible bullish to continue.
KEEP TRADING SIMPLE - NDXGood Morning,
Hope all is well. Thanks Trumpet :P you have allowed multiple day trade opportunities!
Right now NASDAQ is fighting to get its way through another spot of resistance. If it is able to do so you will see some definite bullish activity throughout the market including the crypto market
Lets see if NASDAQ is able to form a new support and opportunity for a swing trade or will it continue lower.
Thanks
Nifty50 - Forming higher bottomAfter clear run up - changing trend and crossing swing high, nifty is forming a higher bottom for the mentioned targets. looks like a party for bulls in the next few months
Xauusd analysis We are not yet backing down on the upward movement yet. But before entry, make sure body close above the structure and wait a pullback to the Liquidity line and take your shot. Enjoy
XAUUSD Rejected from Supply Zone – Where Next? 🔎 Market Overview:
Gold (XAU/USD) has faced a strong rejection from the $3,141 - $3,150 supply zone, indicating a potential bearish move ahead. The rejection was accompanied by increased selling pressure, pushing the price below $3,130.
🔹 Key Resistance: $3,141 - $3,150 (Supply Zone)
🔹 Current Price: $3,128
🔹 Key Support Levels: $3,088 | $3,030
📉 Bearish Breakdown:
1️⃣ Failed Breakout Attempt:
Price reached the high of $3,150 but failed to hold above it.
A strong rejection in this zone signals that institutional sellers are active.
2️⃣ Lower High Formation:
The price structure shows a series of lower highs, confirming bearish intent.
This suggests potential downside movement unless bulls regain control.
3️⃣ Key Support at $3,088:
This level has previously acted as a strong demand zone.
A breakdown below it could accelerate selling pressure.
4️⃣ Final Target: $3,030 Demand Zone:
If the price fails to hold above $3,088, we could see a further drop to $3,030, where major buying interest exists.
📊 Trading Plan:
📍 Bearish Setup:
🔹 If price retests and rejects $3,141 - $3,150 again, it presents a short opportunity targeting $3,088 first.
🔹 A confirmed break below $3,088 could trigger a deeper decline toward $3,030 - $3,020.
📍 Bullish Setup:
🔹 If price holds $3,088, buyers may push back towards $3,141 for another test.
🔹 A breakout above $3,150 would invalidate the bearish setup and open the door to higher prices.
🔥 Will gold continue its downward move, or will buyers step in at support? Drop your thoughts in the comments!
📊 Like & Follow for more trade ideas! 🚀
#gold #XAUUSD #forextrading #technicalanalysis #priceaction #daytrading #supplyanddemand
XAUUSD: 3/4 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3200, support below 3100
Four-hour chart resistance 3170, support below 3100
One-hour chart resistance 3150, support below 3105.
Gold news analysis: For weeks, Trump has been claiming that April 2 is "Liberation Day", on which the United States will introduce large-scale reciprocal tariffs that may subvert the global trade system, and plans to announce this wave of new tariffs at 4 pm Eastern Time (in the Rose Garden of the White House). According to the Washington Post, Trump's aides are considering a plan to impose tariffs of about 20% on products from almost all countries, rather than targeting certain countries or certain products. According to the newspaper, the government expects the new tariffs to bring more than 6 Trillion dollars of income, these income can be returned to Americans in the form of tax refunds.
Gold operation suggestions: Gold consolidated yesterday and held the 3100 integer mark. Today, the Asian session opened and broke through. After reaching 3167.8, it began to turn downward and fell below the short-term long and short top and bottom conversion position of 3135.
From the current trend analysis, the short-term support below focuses on 3100-3105 on the one-hour/four-hour/daily chart. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to buy at a low level. Patiently wait for the retracement to buy. Short selling can only enter the market after the key support is lost.
Buy: 3120near SL:3115
Buy: 3105near SL:3099
Buy: 3100near SL:3095
For more daily sharing, please pay attention
Gold (XAU/USD) : Bullish Setup with Key Demand Zone🔹 Trend Line & Demand Zone 📈
* The trend line shows an upward trend. 🚀
* The demand zone 🟦 acts as strong support, where buyers are likely to step in.
🔹 Price Action 🔍
* Price is bouncing off the demand zone ➡️ Bullish Signal 📊🔥
* Higher lows forming, indicating potential upward momentum.
🔹 Trade Setup 🎯
✅ Entry Point: Near the demand zone 🟦
❌ Stop Loss: 🔽 3,099.26 (Below demand zone)
🎯 Target Point: ⬆️ 3,148.58 (Key resistance area)
🔹 Expected Movement 🏆
* A slight pullback 📉 before a strong push up 📈💪
* If price holds the demand zone, 🚀 potential rally ahead!
🔹 Risk-to-Reward Ratio ⚖️
* Favorable trade setup ✅ High reward, controlled risk 🎯
🔹 Final Verdict 🔥
📊 Bullish Bias ✅ As long as demand zone holds!
🚨 Warning: If price breaks below 3,099.26, expect further downside!
Crude Oil Dipped, Testing Critical Support Level FenzoFx—Crude oil dropped from $72.20 and is now testing the $68.8 support. The decline was expected as the Stochastic oscillator signaled overbought conditions.
If $68.8 breaks, the downtrend could extend to $67.6.
Bullish Scenario : However, a higher low above $70.15 would invalidate the bearish outlook, potentially pushing prices back to $72.20.
Gold (XAU/USD) – Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish SetupOverview
Gold (XAU/USD) has been in a strong uptrend, making consistent higher highs and higher lows. However, the price action has formed a Rising Wedge Pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal formation. This pattern suggests that the bullish momentum is weakening, and a potential sell-off could follow.
The recent breakdown of the wedge structure confirms the bearish bias, and sellers are now in control. Based on price action analysis, we can anticipate further downside movement toward key support levels.
📊 Technical Analysis – Rising Wedge Breakdown
1️⃣ Understanding the Rising Wedge Pattern
The Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that occurs when the price consolidates within an upward-sloping channel but shows signs of exhaustion. Here’s how it developed:
Higher Highs & Higher Lows: The price consistently formed higher peaks and troughs, indicating an uptrend.
Declining Bullish Momentum: As the wedge progressed, price action became increasingly squeezed, showing reduced bullish strength.
Breakout Confirmation: Once the lower trendline of the wedge was breached, it confirmed that buyers were losing control and that sellers had stepped in.
2️⃣ Key Levels & Market Structure
🔵 Resistance Level: The upper boundary of the wedge around $3,150 - $3,163 acted as a supply zone, where sellers pushed prices lower.
🟠 Support Level: The lower boundary of the wedge, around $3,100 - $3,120, initially provided demand but eventually failed to hold.
🔻 Breakdown Confirmation: The price broke below the wedge, which is a strong bearish signal.
🎯 Trade Setup & Strategy
3️⃣ Bearish Trading Plan
Given the breakdown of the wedge pattern, the setup favors a short (sell) trade. Here’s how to approach it:
📉 Sell Entry:
The ideal short position is initiated after a confirmed break of the wedge’s support level.
📍 Stop Loss (SL):
A tight stop-loss is placed above the previous resistance at $3,163.67, ensuring risk is controlled if the trade goes against the bias.
🎯 Take Profit (TP) Targets:
TP 1: $3,080.66 – First major support level, where buyers might step in temporarily.
TP 2: $3,057.33 – Extended downside target, offering a greater risk-to-reward ratio.
4️⃣ Additional Price Expectations
Retest of the Wedge Breakdown: The price may pull back to the broken wedge support before continuing downward.
Stronger Bearish Momentum: If selling pressure remains strong, price could fall even lower, breaking TP 2.
Invalidation Level: If price climbs above $3,163, the wedge breakdown would be invalidated, signaling that bulls have regained control.
📌 Conclusion & Market Sentiment
🔹 Rising Wedge Breakdown Signals Further Downside – The market structure suggests that sellers are gaining control.
🔹 Sell Setup with Risk-Managed Approach – With a defined stop-loss and two profit targets, this trade offers a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
🔹 Gold’s Short-Term Bearish Outlook – The chart confirms a potential correction, and price may drop towards $3,080 and $3,057 if the bearish momentum continues.
📊 Final Thought:
This is a high-probability short trade based on classic technical analysis. Traders should monitor for confirmation retests and manage risk accordingly. ✅
Would you like any refinements or additional insights? 🚀
GOLD 4HR CHART Monday Open has taken off continuation close of Friday NZ time We are looking at another ATH with 3.111 33 at the time of writing this currently still a good trade position will close out once T/P is hit. there maybe a small correction. 3,157,65 is my target goal once my T/P is hit.
Observation: News out the USA around Trumps Tariffs have now taken effect on todays open however this just the beginning.
Disclaimer: this not financial advice never risk more than your prepared to loose S/L and T/P must be in place at all times.
update : T/P hit target small correction maybe 3088?
GIFTNIFT , NIFTY ,INDAMay be a reversal in NIFTY , Inverted head and Shoulders Would be bullish might take it to 26000 as Shown .... I know i have a posted a INDA charts which says more fall ahead on larger t/f but this what it is shorter term ... may be a counter trend rally under a larger t/f
Gold (XAU/USD) Price Action Update📊 Gold (XAU/USD) Price Action Update 🎯
🔹 Current Price: 3,130.15
🔹 Timeframe: 1H
📌 Key Support Levels (Demand Zones):
🟢 3100-3107 – First Support (Waiting for Confirmation)
🟢 3066-3073 – Second Support
🟢 3048-3050 – Third Support
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If price holds above 3100, we might see a push towards 3150+ and beyond.
A breakout above 3155 could confirm a strong bullish continuation.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If price breaks below 3100, the next support zones at 3066-3073 will be key reaction areas.
A break below 3066 could signal a deeper retracement towards 3048-3050.
⚡ Trading Tip:
✅ Look for confirmations before entering buy/sell trades.
✅ Watch for bullish rejection at demand zones for long positions.
✅ Sell near resistance with bearish confirmation.
#Gold #XAUUSD #ForexTrading #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoney #ForexSignals #GoldTrading #GoldBulls #GoldBears
XAUUSD 1H, 03/04/2025, 11:20AM.XAUUSD this trade is going good, almost 60% target done. Still holding this trade with breakeven.
Chart Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold vs. USD)### **Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Setup – 45-Minute Chart (M45)**
This chart presents a **bullish trade setup** for **Gold (XAU/USD)** based on price action and technical analysis.
#### **Key Levels & Setup:**
- **Support Zone:** Price has tested and respected the support area multiple times, indicating a strong foundation for potential upside.
- **Entry Range:** **3,122 - 3,119** (Marked as a buy entry point).
- **Stop Loss (SL):** **3,113** (Below the support level to limit downside risk).
- **Target:** **3,178+**, aiming for a **new all-time high (ATH)**.
#### **Technical Observations:**
- **Triple Bottom Formation:** Price has rejected the same level multiple times (circled in orange), confirming strong support.
- **Bullish Momentum:** After breaking above resistance, price shows a strong impulse move upwards.
- **Risk-Reward Ratio:** Favorable, with a relatively tight stop-loss and a high potential upside.
#### **Trading Plan:**
- **Long/Bullish Entry:** Around **3,122 - 3,119**
- **Stop Loss:** Below **3,113** to protect against breakdowns.
- **Take Profit:** **3,178+** for an expected breakout rally.
This setup suggests a potential continuation of the **uptrend**, with **buy opportunities** as long as price holds above the support zone.
