Get started

Futures market

Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Thursday, 3rd July 2024)Bias: No Bias USD News(Red Folder): -Average Hourly Earnings m/m -Non-Farm Employment Change -Unemployment Rate Notes: - No exact bias, await for NFP news -Looking for price to respect the key level stated - Potential BUY/SELL if there's confirmation on lower timeframe - Pivot point: 3315 , 3385 Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by HM_fxtrading
#XAU/USD SELL TRADE SETUP [SHORT]In this analysis we're focusing on 2H timeframe. As we know, Gold is moving in a strong bearish trend. The best selling zone is 3295 - 3305 key levels area. If gold encounters rejection from this zone, we can anticipate a potential decline in price towards its targeted levels. Target 1:3260 Target 2:3250 Target 3:3240 Wait for a retracement to sell with strong confirmation and proper risk management. #GOLD 2H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by TradeTacticsreal
GOLD The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report for today showed a surprising decline of 33,000 jobs, well below the forecast of a 99,000 forecast and down from the previous month’s modest gain of 29,000 jobs. Key Details: This negative figure indicates that private businesses in the US shed 33,000 jobs in June, marking a contraction in private-sector employment—the weakest report since March 2023. The report is produced by the ADP Research Institute, which uses anonymized payroll data from about 26 million workers to estimate private-sector employment changes ahead of the official government Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The decline reflects ongoing uncertainty among employers amid policy and economic challenges, including tariff impacts and consumer caution. Market Implications: The unexpected job losses may raise concerns about the health of the US labor market and the broader economy. This data could increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts or a more dovish stance, potentially weighing on the US dollar and boosting safe-haven assets like gold and silver. However, the ADP report often diverges from the official NFP, so markets will closely watch the upcoming government jobs data for confirmation. In summary: June’s ADP report revealed a contraction of 33,000 private-sector jobs, far below expectations, signaling caution in US labor market hiring and adding uncertainty to the economic outlook ahead of the official payrolls release. #gold #xauusd
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
9
Potential Long ScalpSince Apr 22nd, XAUUSD has been in a Trading Range. Hence, I`m looking for opportunities to buy low and sell high, with a scalping target (50% of ATR14). I watched Gold fall during last week, where the bulls failed twice to push prices higher (H1 and H2). Now this next week it`s very probable that we`ll see at least another try (H3), which will have a higher probability of resulting in a leg up towards the minor bear TL. With that said, I`ll be watching for a bullish signal bar and trade long at the break of its high.
EASYMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by lestercrest
XAUUSD — July 3rd, 2025: Is the Downtrend Finally Over?Gold (XAUUSD) opened today with a bullish gap, and continued the momentum from Tuesday’s breakout above the major downtrendline that had capped the market for weeks. This technical breakout was long-awaited by many traders, and it's now leading us into a potential trend reversal phase — but not without resistance. Price has now reached a critical resistance zone at 3366, which previously acted as a strong supply area during the last leg of the downtrend. If this level is broken decisively (ideally with a 4H candle close and follow-through), it may signal a clean shift toward a mid-term uptrend, with upside targets at 3379, 3403, and even 3430. That said, rejection at 3366 has already triggered a minor pullback. We’re now watching the 3343–3351 zone as a potential support and an optimal buy entry area. If this zone holds, it could provide the fuel needed for bulls to continue their push. 🟢 Suggested Trade Plan BUY LIMIT 3343–3351 Stop Loss 3325 Take Profit 1 3379 Take Profit 2 3403 Take Profit 3 3430 (Alternatively, consider a BUY STOP above 3370 in case of direct breakout) 📌 Market Structure Resistance 3 3430 Resistance 2 3403 Resistance 1 3382 Pivot 3366 Support 1 3342 Support 2 3322 Support 3 3305 ⚠️ Important Macro Alert Today’s session is highly risky due to the early release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which is scheduled today instead of Friday because of the U.S. Independence Day (July 4) holiday tomorrow. This brings a major volatility spike risk during the New York session. Manage your position size wisely, avoid emotional trades, and wait for solid confirmations. Discipline beats prediction. Trade what you see — not what you feel. Keep healthy so we can keep trading and we can keep on profiting.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AbsoluteWillid
Can Gold Really Drop 10% in a Day?📘 EDUCATIONAL POST: Can Gold Really Drop 10% in a Day? Let’s Break It Down Alright, traders—before you start thinking the sky is falling, let’s look this chart straight in the face and get real. ⸻ 🔍 The Setup Right Now Here’s what’s showing up: ✅ A bullish pennant forming up top (potential continuation higher). ✅ A big head and shoulders pattern in the middle (bearish). ✅ VWAP bands ranging from ~3,257 to ~3,392. ✅ Volume is underwhelming—426k vs 582k average. ✅ A big target line all the way down near 3,000. This mix of signals can be confusing. Let’s separate the hype from what’s actually possible. ⸻ 🎯 Q: Can the market collapse to 3,000 tomorrow? Short Answer: No. Here’s Why: 1️⃣ Move Size: • Current price is ~3,357. • Target is ~3,000. • That’s a -357 point drop (~10.6%) in one session. • For gold CFDs, this would be an extreme event only seen in major crises (think 2008 or March 2020). 2️⃣ Volume Context: • Today’s volume is below average. • Big crashes are usually preceded by heavy distribution—this isn’t showing yet. 3️⃣ VWAP Anchors: • The lower VWAP band sits at 3,257. • Reaching 3,000 would require breaking through 3,257 support, 3,100, and months of prior buying interest. 4️⃣ Market Environment: • It’s the July 4th holiday in the U.S.—liquidity is thin. • Thin markets can gap lower but rarely hold a massive drop without a big catalyst (e.g., credit crisis, war headlines). 5️⃣ Pattern Confirmation: • Yes, the head and shoulders pattern is visible. • But to confirm it, you need: 🔹 A clear break of the neckline with double average volume. 🔹 Follow-through that pushes below 3,257. • None of this has happened yet. ⸻ ✅ What’s Realistically Possible Tomorrow? If sellers show up, here’s what a big bearish day might look like: 1️⃣ First Move: • Rejection at 3,357–3,392 resistance. • Pullback toward ~3,324 (mid VWAP). 2️⃣ Continuation: • Drop down to ~3,257 (VWAP lower band). 3️⃣ Extreme Scenario: • Retest of 3,200–3,150 zone. But a flush all the way to 3,000? 👉 Highly unlikely unless there’s a major global shock. ⸻ 💡 Trading Tip: Stay Tactical If you want to position short: ✅ Wait for rejection at 3,357–3,392. ✅ Short targeting 3,324 first. ✅ Scale profits there. ✅ Only hold runners for 3,200–3,150 if momentum accelerates. ⸻ 🔑 Key Takeaway 3,000 is a structural target—this means it’s a price objective that might play out over weeks, not hours. Trying to catch that in one day is chasing a black swan. Stay patient. Trade levels, not headlines. ⸻ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research before trading. ⸻ ✅ If you found this helpful, share it with someone who panics every time a red candle shows up.
FX:XAUUSD
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
MR. COPPER GOES FUN. WITH DONALD TRUMP — IT IS A BULL RUNCopper prices in 2025 are up about 27 percent year-to-date, driven by a complex interplay of technical and fundamental factors, with geopolitical events such as the Trump administration's tariff policies and the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East having a significant impact. Fundamental Outlook: The main driver of copper prices in 2025 is the ongoing global surge in demand driven by the transition to clean energy. Copper is essential for electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy infrastructure, and grid upgrades, all of which require extensive use of copper due to its superior electrical conductivity. For example, EVs use about 2-4 times more copper than traditional vehicles, and renewable installations such as wind turbines contain several tons of copper each. This structural growth in demand underpins the optimistic outlook for copper in the medium to long term. On the supply side, however, copper production is growing. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a global copper surplus of 289,000 tonnes in 2025, more than double the 2024 surplus. This surplus is driven by rising production, particularly from new or expanded operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mongolia, Russia and elsewhere. Capacity increases in these regions, coupled with smelter growth, could contribute to a supply glut despite strong demand. Conversely, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could disrupt bauxite and alumina supply chains, a region that is a strategically important supplier of raw materials. Impact of Trump Tariffs: The Trump administration’s threats and actions to impose tariffs on U.S. copper imports have added volatility and complexity to the market. The tariff announcement triggered a sharp sell-off in early April 2025 as concerns about the impact on US manufactured demand and global trade flows grew. London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices fell to one-month lows following China’s retaliatory tariffs, before partially recovering after some tariff exemptions and reductions were announced. The tariffs also distorted physical supply chains. Traders rushed to deliver copper to the US ahead of the tariffs, reducing copper availability in other regions such as China. This arbitrage resulted in a significant widening of the price differential between US CME copper contracts and LME copper prices, with US prices trading at a premium of over 10% to London. This premium reflects the tariff risk embedded in the US copper price and expectations of temporary domestic market tensions. Technical Outlook: Technically, copper prices have shown resilience despite the tariff shocks. Copper prices sold off after peaking in late March 2025 before the tariffs were announced, but have since begun to recover. Long-term trendlines and moving averages remain supportive, with the 100-week and 200-week moving averages trending higher and forming a bullish crossover earlier in the year. Long-term copper prices are once again attacking the 18-year resistance around $4.50/lb ($10/kg) that capped the upside in 2008 and again in the 2010s and first half of the 2020s, with a 1.5x rally in the next 1 to 3 years. The technical main chart of the COMEX December 2025 copper futures contract COMEX:HGZ2025 points to the possibility of an upside move, all the way to the $7 mark (around $15/kg) as early as H2 2025. Conclusion Going forward, copper prices are expected to remain volatile but supported by long-term structural demand growth, with the impact of tariffs likely to cause episodic disruptions rather than a sustained suppression of increasingly hot prices. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team😎
COMEX:HGZ2025
by PandorraResearch
DIYWallSt Trade Journal: Why Price Action Beats News **07/02/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis ** EOD accountability report: +763 Sleep: 4.5 hours Overall health: sleep deprived ** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 4/4 success** — 9:57 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check: — 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check: — 11:10 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :x: **What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? ** You can't trade on news, the only thing that matters in day trading is price action. Bad news can still make the market go up. News The U.S. economy lost 33,000 jobs in June, as per ADP, badly missing forecasts for a gain of 99,000. MICROSOFT TO LAY OFF AS MANY AS 9,000 EMPLOYEES Tesla’s NASDAQ:TSLA Q2 deliveries miss consensus expectations **What are the critical support levels to watch?** --> Above 6250= Bullish, Under 6240= Bearish Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
Market Recap & Forecast – Egyptian EditionMarket Recap & Forecast – Egyptian Edition Yalla ya shabab—before you run off to Sahel or your cousin’s mashwi, let’s break down the market moves. Bring your tea—we’re about to see how they played us like a baladi tabla. 🗓️ 3-Day Recap (June 30 – July 2) ✅ Monday (June 30) Market woke up strong—“Ana mesh hayemny!” like Adel Emam in El Irhab Wel Kabab. Closed above 3302—bulls were flexing harder than Mekky in El Kabeer Awy saying “Eh da? Eh da? Enta betgannen ya basha?” Momentum nearly maxed out—like your cousin after 3 Red Bulls. RSI ~54, climbing. Volume big and bold. Translation: Bulls controlled everything—“El gameya di beta3ty ana!” ✅ Tuesday (July 1) Tried to smash 3360–3394—market replied with Adel Emam’s classic: “E7na benedhak 3alek!” Closed near 3330, confused like a tourist in Sayeda Zeinab. Volume dropped—enthusiasm disappeared faster than konafa on the table. Market Maker Move: “Ta3ala ta3ala, khod fake breakout we yalla salaam!” ✅ Wednesday (July 2) Price stuck in a boring tight range—like someone waiting for their turn at the Mogamaa. RSI still climbing but exhausted—“Khalas ya basha, malhash ta3ma,” as Mekky would say. EMAs clustering—“Mafeesh haga hte7sal.” Volume low—everyone thinking about the holiday. Conclusion: The market was basically on vacation already. 📊 What’s Coming July 3rd (Cairo Time) Set your alarms if you’re not too busy watching El Kabeer Awy reruns: 2:15 PM Cairo: ADP Jobs—could send the market spinning. 4:00 PM Cairo: ISM Services PMI—maybe some drama. 4:30 PM Cairo: Oil Inventories—“keda ya basha, haga sadeema.” Early close because Americans have fireworks and kebab to grill. 🔍 Levels to Keep an Eye On Fib Retracements: 38%: 3355 50%: ~3320 61%: 3302–3310 Zones: 🟥 Sell Zone (Habibi, Calm Down): 3394–3433 🟨 Chop Zone (El Malaal): 3330–3360 🟩 Buy Zone (Inshallah Bounce): 3246–3302 Above 3394? “Eh da? Enta betla3 3aleena?” 🕵️ Market Maker Tactics Step 1: “Yalla, ne3mel rally zay el aflam el mosalsalat.” Step 2: Sell into your excitement. Step 3: “Yalla salaam,” as Adel Emam would say. Step 4: Leave you staring at your screen, thinking: “Ana mesh fahim haga!” ⚡ Forecast for July 3rd Liquidity? “Ra7et fein?”—basically gone. Early spike to 3394? Maybe—but “ma tesdaa2sh!” By the afternoon, expect the market to drift back to 3300 for a nap. 🎲 Chances: 70% sideways boredom. 30% quick stop hunt to ruin your mood before mashwi. 📈 Hypothetical Trade Setup (Just for Education—Khalas ya basha) Sure—here’s a clean, actionable rewrite that keeps the exact meaning, instructions, and flow but is tighter, clearer, and direct: 🟡 ENTRY PLAN Scenario 1 – Sell the Trap Setup: Price spikes into 3394–3430 Entry: Sell Limit at 3390 Confirmation: ✅ 1-minute Delta turns negative ✅ RSI fails to hold above 62 ✅ Footprint shows absorption Stop Loss: 3435 Target 1: 3330 Target 2: 3310 Execution: Place limit order. No chasing. Scenario 2 – Buy the Clean Break Setup: Sustained buying above 3430 Entry: Buy Stop at 3432 Confirmation: ✅ 5-minute close over 3430 ✅ Volume >250% of 5-minute average ✅ Delta +1000 or higher Stop Loss: 3395 Target 1: 3465 Target 2: 3480 Execution: Stop order to catch breakout momentum. Scenario 3 – Fade into Reversion Setup: Price fails to hold above 3368 intraday Fib Entry: Market Sell below 3365 Stop Loss: 3390 Target: 3331 (POC) 🛡 Risk Controls Max risk per trade: 1–2% of total equity If price stays between 3360–3390 on low volume, do nothing. Why? Resistance stubborn—like Adel Emam yelling “Ana la!” Market makers cashing out before the holiday. Pre-holiday rallies disappear faster than mekka7a in Ramadan. ❓ Q1: What should you do while waiting for 3390? Answer: Absolutely nothing. You do not: ❌ Short below 3390 without confirmation ❌ Flip bias every 15 points ❌ Chase 1-minute candles just to feel busy Why? Because 3360–3390 is the trap zone. Market Makers churn liquidity here, run stops, and create noise to bait impatient traders. ✅ Instead, you watch: Does price consolidate under 3390? Is volume drying up? Is delta divergence building? Your role is simple: Sit on your hands until price enters your control zone. Trading is 90% waiting. The other 10% is precise execution. ❓ Q2: What if price never hits 3390? Answer: If the setup doesn’t trigger, you do nothing. Example: Price never reaches 3390 No volume spike No delta confirmation Result: ✅ No trade ✅ No regret ✅ No FOMO You are not throwing darts in the dark. You are running a clear plan: If your criteria are met, you act. If they’re not, you stay flat. Example No-Trade Scenario: Price stalls between 3350–3380 all day Volume stays low No stop sweep or breakout You wait and protect your capital. 🔥 Pro Tip If you feel you must do something: Tighten your watchlist Set conditional orders Check correlated markets (Silver, DXY, yields) Watch VWAP and ATR for shifts Update your bias at each session open (London, NY) But never force a trade out of boredom. Here’s the reality: Most of your profit will come from 2–3 clear, high-quality trades a week—not from taking 50 random entries. ✅ Quick Cheat Sheet Trend: Bullish but exhausted. RSI: ~56 and losing steam. Levels: 3355, 3368, 3394 Zones: 🟥 Sell: 3394–3433 🟩 Buy: 3246–3302 Liquidity: “Mafeesh!” Market Makers: Already on holiday. ⚠️ Reminder: This is for learning, not for throwing your salary in the market. As Adel Emam said: “Elly yetgawwez emra2a te7tag el falas.” (He who marries a woman needs money—same with trading. Don’t blow your budget.)
FX:XAUUSD
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
GOLD XAUUSD The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report for today showed a surprising decline of 33,000 jobs, well below the forecast of a 99,000 forecast and down from the previous month’s modest gain of 29,000 jobs. Key Details: This negative figure indicates that private businesses in the US shed 33,000 jobs in June, marking a contraction in private-sector employment—the weakest report since March 2023. The report is produced by the ADP Research Institute, which uses anonymized payroll data from about 26 million workers to estimate private-sector employment changes ahead of the official government Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. The decline reflects ongoing uncertainty among employers amid policy and economic challenges, including tariff impacts and consumer caution. Market Implications: The unexpected job losses may raise concerns about the health of the US labor market and the broader economy. This data could increase expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts or a more dovish stance, potentially weighing on the US dollar and boosting safe-haven assets like gold and silver. However, the ADP report often diverges from the official NFP, so markets will closely watch the upcoming government jobs data for confirmation. In summary: June’s ADP report revealed a contraction of 33,000 private-sector jobs, far below expectations, signaling caution in US labor market hiring and adding uncertainty to the economic outlook ahead of the official payrolls release. #gold #xauusd
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
Sudden Oil Spike - what you need to know!Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, amid a surprise build in US crude inventories. Iran’s move added a modest risk premium to prices, though analysts noted that no actual supply disruptions have occurred. $66 is a key level for WTI crude to hold above. If it can maintain this area, we will likely see higher price. $66 is a multi year trendline of support going back to 2021. Energy stocks / XLE basket is showing some bullish divergence, perhaps indicating this oil move has legs.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by Trading-Capital