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Gold fluctuates and rebounds, don't chase shorts at low levels ๐Ÿ’กMessage Strategy Yesterday, Thursday, we believed that the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the cooling of market risk aversion, and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, which believed that the possibility of rate cuts should not be overly expected, suppressed expectations of rapid rate cuts, dragged down the dollar, and jointly suppressed the trend of gold. However, trade uncertainty, geopolitical situation and expectations of rate cuts still support gold prices, which temporarily supports gold's rebound from a three-week low. Therefore, in terms of operations, it is recommended that everyone pay attention to the upper pressure of $3,345, followed by $3,357, and the lower support of $3,325, followed by $3,310. From the subsequent trend, during the Asian session, gold fell back to $3,330 and stabilized. After the opening of the European session, the gold price rebounded and rose to $3,350 and encountered resistance. After that, gold fluctuated and fell. The decline continued after the opening of the US session, falling to $3,310 and stabilizing. After the rebound of $3,336 and encountering resistance, gold fell again, and continued to fall after the opening of Friday, refreshing the June low to $3,291, and performing weakly in the short term. Overall, gold rebounded to $3,350 on Thursday and encountered resistance, then fell back to $3,310 and stabilized. It basically operated between the support and pressure levels we gave. On Friday, the gold price tried to break downward, and the short-term downside risk increased. ๐Ÿ“ŠTechnical aspects On the daily chart, gold fell from a two-month high and rebounded from a low in June this week, but as gold prices fell back on Thursday, the short-term trend of gold prices turned downward again. For gold's upper pressure, pay attention to the integer position of $3,300, followed by Thursday's low of $3,310, and the 1-hour Bollinger band middle track of $3,325; For gold's lower support, pay attention to the current intraday low of $3,291, which is also the lower track of the daily Bollinger band. A downward break may increase the risk of short-term decline. Pay attention to the two lows of $3,270 and $3,250 when gold prices rebounded at the end of May. The 5-day moving average and MACD indicator cross, and the KDJ and RSI indicators cross. The short-term technical aspect shows that gold prices are at risk of continuing to fall. ๐Ÿ’ฐStrategy Package Short Position๏ผš3275-3295๏ผŒSL๏ผš3315๏ผŒTarget: 3240-3250
TVC:GOLDShort
by TheodoreSilas
Master Analysis Report: XAUUSDHere is my comprehensive, multi-timeframe analysis for XAUUSD. Master Analysis Report: XAUUSD This report synthesizes Candlestick patterns, Ichimoku, Heikin Ashi, Fibonacci ratios, and the outputs of our custom application to build a coherent outlook for Gold. 1. Monthly Timeframe (The Secular Trend) Observation: The monthly chart shows a powerful and established uptrend. The price action is characterized by long, healthy bullish candles, indicating consistent, long-term buying pressure. Candlestick Analysis: There are no major bearish reversal patterns at the top. The structure is one of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of a bull market. The last visible candle is strong and green. Ichimoku Analysis: The price is trading significantly above a thick, supportive Kumo (Cloud). The Tenkan-sen is above the Kijun-sen, and the Chikou Span is unencumbered high above the price action of 26 months ago. This is a textbook example of a strong, secular bull market. Conclusion (Monthly): The long-term bias is unequivocally Bullish. The fundamental trend is up. 2. Weekly Timeframe (The Dominant Trend) Observation: The weekly chart confirms the strength seen on the monthly. The uptrend is clear and well-defined. Heikin Ashi Interpretation: Applying Heikin Ashi principles here would show a long series of green candles with no, or very small, lower wicks. According to the rules you taught me, this signifies a strong, healthy, and trending market with buyers in firm control. Conclusion (Weekly): The dominant, multi-week trend is Strongly Bullish. 3. Daily Timeframe (The Current Trading Environment) Observation: This is where we see the most recent price action from your chart. The price made a strong push to a new high (around $3,375) and has now entered a corrective pullback phase. Candlestick Analysis: The candle at the peak of the move shows a Long Upper Shadow, indicating that sellers stepped in at that level to take profits, initiating this pullback. The subsequent red candles confirm a short-term loss of bullish momentum. This is not yet a reversal of the major trend, but a necessary correction. Ichimoku Analysis: The price is pulling back towards its first line of dynamic support, the Tenkan-sen. The Kijun-sen (currently much lower) represents the key medium-term support level. As long as the price remains above the Kijun-sen and ultimately the Kumo cloud, the bullish structure is considered fully intact. Conclusion (Daily): The primary trend is Bullish, but the immediate short-term sentiment is Corrective / Bearish. 4. Price & Time Target Analysis (The Storyboard) This is where we combine everything to map out the next potential move. We will analyze the primary swing on the Daily chart. Swing Low (Point A): ~ $3,150 Swing High (Point B): ~ $3,375 Phase 1: The Pullback - Finding Support (Potential Buy Zones) Master Storyboard and Final Conclusion The Big Picture: Gold (XAUUSD) is in a powerful, long-term bull market. We should only be looking for buying opportunities. The Current Chapter: The market is in a healthy and necessary pullback. This pullback is a gift, offering a chance to enter the main trend at a better price. The Climax: The key battleground will be the Fibonacci support zone between 3,262โˆ—โˆ—andโˆ—โˆ— 3,235. We will be watching for a classic bullish reversal pattern to form in this area. The Predictive Trigger: The ultimate confirmation would be if this reversal happens on or near a date identified by our application's "Coming Week" or "Coming Month" predictive summary. An event like "Venus Trine Price Angle (Supportive)" occurring as the price tests the Golden Pocket would be a Grade-A signal. Final Outlook: The strategy is to wait patiently for the current correction to find support and then look for a clear bullish signal to enter in alignment with the dominant uptrend. The next major upward move targets 3,435โˆ—โˆ—and potentiallyโˆ—โˆ—3,514. The overall bias is Bullish, pending the completion of the current short-term correction. For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade. I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya Trade โš ๏ธ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by shoonya0000
Gold Price Analysis: Bearish Outlook Deepens as Key Demand Zone ๐Ÿ“‰ Gold Price Analysis: Bearish Outlook Deepens as Key Demand Zone Faces Pressure (June 29, 2025) Gold (XAU/USD) has shown significant bearish momentum in recent days, with clear signals of institutional distribution and strong supply zones keeping the bulls under pressure. Let's break down the price action using a combination of Smart Money Concepts (SMC), supply and demand zones, and classic market structure. --- ๐Ÿ“Š Current Price Snapshot Instrument: Gold (XAU/USD Current Price: $3,273.40 Timeframe: 30 mins (intraday swing structure) Bias: Bearish until structure shifts --- ๐Ÿ” Market Structure Breakdown Gold has maintained a bearish market structure over the past several sessions. This trend is supported by: A series of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirming bearish continuation Failed Change of Character (CHoCH) attempts that could not sustain bullish momentum Notably, the most recent LH occurred around $3,356, followed by a steep drop to form a new LL near $3,273, right at a major demand zone. --- ๐ŸŸฅ Key Supply Zones (Resistance) ๐Ÿ”บ Zone 1: $3,355 โ€“ $3,365 Labeled as a Strong Supply Zone Previous liquidity grab occurred here, followed by aggressive selling Clear rejection and BOS to the downside confirm institutional presence ๐Ÿ”บ Zone 2: $3,321 โ€“ $3,335 A minor but significant supply zone acting as intraday resistance Multiple rejections from this area during pullbacks Aligns with a descending trendline drawn from the recent highs --- ๐ŸŸฆ Key Demand Zone (Support) ๐ŸŸฆ Zone: $3,245 โ€“ $3,273 Labeled as a Key Demand Zone Price is currently consolidating at the top of this zone Reaction here will determine whether bulls can gain ground or if further downside is imminent --- ๐Ÿง  Smart Money Concepts In Action BOS (Break of Structure) has repeatedly occurred to the downside โ€” these are institutional footprints of bearish intent. CHoCH (Change of Character) attempts have failed to hold, reinforcing bearish pressure. Liquidity has been swept above the $3,355 level, suggesting that the smart money is now aiming for liquidity below the demand zone. --- ๐Ÿ”ฎ Forecast Scenarios ๐Ÿ“‰ Primary Bearish Scenario If price breaks below the $3,245 level, expect a strong continuation downward. Potential downside targets: $3,220, and ultimately $3,200 Traders may look for short entries on retests of the $3,321โ€“$3,335 supply zone ๐Ÿ“ˆ Alternate Bullish Reversal Scenario A valid CHoCH and bullish BOS above $3,321 could signal a reversal If that happens, watch for a rally toward $3,345 and possibly another test of the $3,355โ€“$3,365 supply zone This would require strong bullish volume and confirmation candles at the demand zone --- ๐Ÿ“Œ Key Technical Levels Level Type Price Range Notes Supply $3,355โ€“$3,365 Strong institutional resistance Supply $3,321โ€“$3,335 Mid-level supply / pullback zone Demand $3,245โ€“$3,273 Key support; current price area Support ~$3,270 Consolidation zone equilibrium Target ~$3,200 Bearish continuation target --- โœ… Trading Strategy Suggestions Short Bias: Sell from $3,321โ€“$3,335 zone if price rejects with bearish candles or imbalance Long Bias (Cautious): Only consider longs if BOS + CHoCH are confirmed above $3,321, with high-volume candles --- ๐Ÿ“˜ Final Thoughts Gold remains in a bearish environment, with institutional footprints signaling a potential continuation toward lower levels. The price action around the $3,245โ€“$3,273 demand zone will be crucial in determining the next directional move. Until a confirmed structural reversal occurs, the path of least resistance remains downward. Traders should watch for liquidity grabs, rejection candles, and structural confirmations to frame their entries and exits. --- Stay tuned for further updates and real-time price action breakdowns. Risk management is key โ€” trade safe and smart! ๐Ÿ’ผ๐Ÿ“‰
FX:XAUUSDShort
by hassanshahjehan
GOLD: Technical Analysis based on price structure, key levelsHello Everyone Let's start ... Next week's BUY/SELL Scenario for GOLD (30 Jun- 4 Jul). before this make sure to go and check my previous Analysis as they were more than perfect. Recent Trend: Gold has broken down from a local consolidation zone near $3,325โ€“$3,340. Structure: Market has formed a lower high and now a lower low โ€” bearish short-term structure. Key Support Zone: Price has just touched a strong previous horizontal support near $3,270, which acted multiple times as a demand zone. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Bullish Scenario (Buy Setup): ๐ŸŸข Buy if price shows reversal signals around $3,270โ€“$3,250 zone. This zone is historical support. If a bullish engulfing or double bottom forms, it could lead to a bounce. wait for 4hr/ Daily candle closure above 3,280. Target Prices will be: TP1: $3,325 (minor resistance) TP2: $3,360 (previous structure high) TP3: $3,398 TVC:GOLD SL: $3,230 (recent swing low) Probability: ๐Ÿ”น 55โ€“60% (if clear bullish candle confirms; otherwise lower) Confirmation Needed: Bullish divergence (e.g., RSI or Stoch), or volume spike reversal --- ๐Ÿ“‰ Bearish Scenario (Sell Setup): ๐Ÿ”ด (Risky Entry) Sell on retracement back to $3,310โ€“$3,325, if rejection occurs (SL @3,345) This area is now potential resistance after the recent breakdown. (Safe Entry) Otherwise You can Sell After a 4hr/daily candle closure below 3,245 Target Prices will be: TP1: $3,220 (deeper move into next demand) TP2: 3,205 TP3: 3,175 TP4: 3,135 ( why not!) Careful: at (3,135-3,170 : A strong rejection is valid to move up again). Probability: ๐Ÿ”น65โ€“70% โ€” structure and momentum are favoring downside Pro Advice: ๐Ÿงญ Bonus โ€“ Neutral/Wait Zone: Between $3,270 and $3,310 โ€” price could consolidate here. Wait for breakout or rejection before taking positions. Good Luck TVC:GOLD
TVC:GOLDShort
by Mr_Analyzer_kH
Next Monday: Gold price can wait for 3300-3320 to shortNext Monday: Gold price can wait for 3300-3320 to short Latest gold market news and analysis in June: 1. Gold price fell sharply, falling for the second consecutive week Spot gold fell 2.8% this week, closing at $3273/ounce on Friday, and fell below $3255 during the session, hitting a new low in nearly a month. 2. Analysis of the reasons for the decline The situation in the Middle East has eased: Israel and Iran have reached a ceasefire agreement, weakening the safe-haven demand for gold. Market risk appetite has rebounded: European and American stock markets have risen, and some funds have shifted from gold to stocks. Changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations: Although the market expects the probability of a rate cut in September to rise to 75%, the probability of a rate cut in July is only 20%, and short-term support is insufficient. The dollar is weak but gold prices have not benefited: The US dollar index fell 1.47% this week, but gold failed to get a boost, indicating that the safe-haven premium has subsided. 3. Market sentiment is divided: The survey shows that 41% of investors expect gold prices to rise next week, 46% are bearish, and 13% are neutral. 4. Future focus: July 9 tariff negotiation deadline: If the United States reaches an agreement with trading partners such as the European Union, it may further weaken safe-haven demand. Fed policy signals: Pay attention to speeches by Fed officials next week and June non-farm data. Geopolitical risks: Although the situation in the Middle East has eased, potential conflicts may still push up risk aversion again. 5. Technical analysis: Support level: $3,250 (if broken, it may fall to $3,120). Resistance level: $3,300-3,346 range, or challenge $3,450 after breaking through. Gold 4-hour chart: High pressure zone: 3280-3300 Support zone: 3250-3260 Market analysis: The current daily chart is running in a larger range; Intraday long range: 3250-3260. Intraday short range: 3280--3300--3345. The 4-hour structure continues to fall and weaken, and short selling should be active at present. Next week, aim at the upper 3300-3310-20-30 pressure level, stagflation reversal K-line appears, enter the market and short
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Isla_suri001
Gold Weekly ReviewGold Weekly Review: The Long-Short Strangling War after the Geopolitical Smoke Dissipated When Trump announced the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran on social media, the market's risk aversion was like a deflated ball - the trend of gold prices plummeting 2% in a single day exposed the most vulnerable weakness of contemporary gold: in the dual game between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and geopolitical risks, the risk aversion attribute is gradually becoming a supporting role. But what is more interesting is the subsequent statement of the Iranian Foreign Minister: "There is no plan to restart nuclear negotiations." This suggests that geopolitical risks are only temporarily dormant rather than disappearing. Combined with Trump's threat to "stop lifting sanctions on Iran," the carnival of gold bears may just be the calm before the storm. The PCE data in May in the United States staged an absurd drama of "inflation stickiness + consumption shrinkage": Core PCE increased by 2.7% year-on-year (a new high this year), confirming the rationality of the Fed's "higher for longer". Consumer spending unexpectedly fell by 0.1% (the first time in 21 months), but it laid the groundwork for the expectation of interest rate cuts. This contradiction has created a strange scene in the interest rate futures market: traders bet on the probability of a rate cut in September to rise to 68%, while cutting the expectation of a rate cut in 2025 from 4 to 3 times. The Fed is trapped in the data maze it created, and gold has become a victim of this policy hesitation period. 4-hour chart Death triangle descending channel + Bollinger band opening: Price breaks through 3280/3255 two lines of defense continuously, MACD forms "crocodile mouth" pattern below zero axis Key watershed: 3295-3301 area gathers 50-day moving average and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, forming the last line of defense for bears Bloody warning for operators The current market is a paradise for trend traders, but a hell for short-term traders: Main trend strategy: Shorting in 3295-3301 area (stop loss 3326) is the only opportunity worth heavy position, target 3250 break can chase to 3220 against the trend Picking chestnuts: Try to buy with a light position near 3250 (strict stop loss at 3238) needs to be coordinated with the 15-minute RSI bottom divergence, and the position must not exceed the opening of the US market Powell's "resignation" black swan: Trump's threat to replace the Fed chairman may cause the market to question the continuity of policies. Global Central Bank Governors Summit: If Powell and Lagarde release synchronized easing signals, gold may usher in a retaliatory rebound. Non-agricultural data sniper war: If the unemployment rate breaks the 4.0% threshold, it will directly trigger expectations of a rate cut in September. The author's cold reminder: When the gold price closes below 3250 on a weekly basis, it means that the upward trend in 2024 has officially ended. Before the Fed gives a clear signal of a policy shift, any bottom-fishing behavior is equivalent to being hostile to the trend.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Liz_Trading_gold
Gold market weekly reviewGold market weekly review: the long-short dilemma and trader dilemma under the PCE inflation game On Friday, the US core PCE price index in May was 2.6% year-on-year, slightly higher than expected. This data, regarded by the Federal Reserve as an "inflation vane", once again revealed the contradictory background of the US economy - the tug-of-war between the stubborn inflation stickiness and the weak consumption momentum. After the data was released, the market reacted violently but chaotically: the US dollar index briefly dived 10 points and then quickly recovered its lost ground, while gold staged a "buy expectations and sell facts" drama, with a minimum of $3,255/ounce. Behind this is the serious disagreement among traders on the policy path - CME interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate cut in September is still anchored at 68%, but the expectation of a rate cut for the whole year of 2025 has been compressed from 4 times to 3 times. What is more worthy of vigilance is the ghost effect of tariff policy. As the election approaches, trade protectionism rhetoric is rampant, and companies' pre-stocking behavior may temporarily lower inflation readings, but the reconstruction of supply chain costs in the medium and long term will strengthen the "higher for longer" interest rate narrative. In my opinion, the current market is repeating the script of "inflation repetition-expectation swing" in 2023, and the certainty of the Fed's policy shift is being swallowed by uncertainty. Key signals of the 4-hour cycle The falling channel is complete: After yesterday's cross star, there was no continuous positive rebound, and the 3280-3295 area constituted a double Fibonacci suppression (38.2% & 50% retracement level). The MACD column was released twice below the zero axis, suggesting that the shorts still have pricing power. Long-short watershed: 3250 is not only a psychological barrier, but also the last line of defense of the 2024 rising trend line. If it is lost, it will open the door to test the 3200-3180 gap. Retail trading trap warning The recent daily fluctuation of gold is 100-200 US dollars. On the surface, it is a feast of opportunities, but in fact it is a liquidity hunting ground. I have witnessed too many traders repeatedly "selling high and buying low" in the 3280-3250 range, and finally being swept by the sudden market in both directions. It is necessary to clearly realize that the current market is in the late stage of trend acceleration, and volatility expansion is often accompanied by price deviation correction. Short strategy Ideal sniper position: 3280 (Asia-European market rebound limit) and 3295 (US market second test position), stop loss is strictly placed above 3303, target 3245-3230 Key risk control: If the price stands at 3287 within 30 minutes, you need to manually exit and wait and see Bull strategy Pick chestnuts from the fire position: 3243-3247 light position to try more (need to cooperate with 15-minute RSI bottom divergence), stop loss 3238, target 3265 Cruel reality: The winning rate of counter-trend trading is less than 35%, it is recommended to halve the position and give up the fantasy of "averaging costs" Ultimate warning The closing battle of the monthly line may trigger a liquidity vacuum killing, and any "bottom-fishing" behavior below 3250 must be equipped with a hedge position. Remember: before the market proves the bottom, the price is the most honest killer.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Trend_Trading_xau
SHORT WEEK Waiting for Pullback h4 and go down .The market is at a point where we should sell, it is at a maximum of Elliott Waves, wave 5 is already extremely extended, so get ready for a mega drop of several weeks while everyone continues to buy at the highs, it will keep going down. In summary, we have a bullish market on H4, now there will be a correction on H1, meaning a bearish trend on H1 for several weeks. We are at point 3 of the major wave and now it will seek major point 4. Remember: After 5 waves, 1 correction comes.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by KMXAU
Down the road - Gold Outlook June 30 - July 24, 2025FX_IDC:XAUUSD ๐Ÿ“ฐ The past weeks has been a wild ride for gold prices, caught between the fiery conflict in the Middle East and a deluge of crucial economic data from the U.S. ๐Ÿ“ˆ Adding to this, a detailed technical analysis provides a deeper look into gold's immediate future. **Geopolitical Drama Unfolds & Peace Prevails!** ๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ ceasefire negotiations. Initially, gold was shrouded in uncertainty ๐ŸŒซ๏ธ due to the Iran-Israel war, with markets bracing for potential U.S. involvement and a full-blown escalation. Daily tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel kept everyone on edge, and the question of U.S. intervention remained a nail-biter ๐Ÿ˜ฌ, though President Trump did announce a 14-day "timeout". Then came the dramatic twist on June 21st: "Operation Midnighthammer" saw the U.S. unleash bunker-buster bombs on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities. ๐Ÿ’ฅ Short time later, the U.S. declared mission accomplished, stating their goal of destroying these sites was achieved, and no further attacks would follow. Iran's response, "Operation Annunciation of Victory," on the following Monday, involved missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq. ๐Ÿš€ Interestingly, these attacks were pre-announced, allowing for safe evacuations and thankfully, no casualties. ๐Ÿ™ The biggest surprise came from President Trump as he declared, "Congratulations world, it's time for peace!" ๐ŸŽ‰ He then brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which, despite being fragile, largely held, leading to the war's end.๐Ÿค Both nations, as expected, officially claimed victory โ€“ a common move to satisfy their citizens. ๐Ÿ… Personally, I was genuinely surprised that the U.S.President mediated ceasefire, actually brought the conflict to a close โ€“ but it's a welcome outcome! ๐Ÿ™ **Economic Data & Fed's Steady Hand** ๐Ÿ’น๐Ÿ›๏ธ The cessation of hostilities triggered a steady downward slide in gold prices from June 24th to 27th. โฌ‡๏ธ This dip initially met some market resistance but it ultimately prevailed, especially with the release of mixed U.S. economic data, which, despite being varied, was generally interpreted positively by the market. The spotlight also shone on the Federal Reserve, with several representatives speaking and Fed Chair Jerome Powell undergoing a two-day Senate hearing. ๐ŸŽค๐Ÿ‘จโ€โš–๏ธ Powell meticulously explained the Fed's rationale for holding interest rates steady, despite market pressures. ๐Ÿคท However, recent whispers suggest the Federal Reserve might actually cut rates in September! ๐Ÿ˜ฎ ## Geopolitical News Landscape ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿ“ฐ India / Pakistan Pakistan rejected claims that it supported militant groups active in Indian Kashmir. India issued a formal protest but reported no fresh border clashes during the week. Outlook ๐Ÿ”ฎ: De-escalation is possible in the short term. However, unresolved disputes over water rights (Indus Treaty) could reignite tensions. Gaza Conflict Heavy Israeli airstrikes killed dozens in Gaza, including civilians near aid centers. The UN warned that U.S.-backed aid systems are failing. Humanitarian corridors remain blocked. Outlook ๐Ÿ”ฎ: Ceasefire talks may resume in July, but success depends on international pressure and safe humanitarian access. Russia / Ukraine Russia advanced 36 sq mi in eastern Ukraine, deploying outdated T-62 tanks. Ukraine reinforced defensive lines, aided by Western military packages. Outlook ๐Ÿ”ฎ: The front remains volatile. Sustained Western support will be key to halting further Russian gains. U.S. โ€“ China Trade War A breakthrough deal was signed for China to fast-track rare-earth exports to the U.S. Talks on tech transfer and tariffs continue behind closed doors. Outlook ๐Ÿ”ฎ: A phased de-escalation is possible, but deep trust issues linger, especially over semiconductors and AI. ๐ŸŒ Global Trade War Several countries, including Brazil and Thailand, imposed fresh restrictions on Chinese imports, echoing the U.S. stance. Global supply chains remain fragmented. Outlook ๐Ÿ”ฎ: Trade blocs like the EU and Mercosur may take on greater importance as countries hedge against rising protectionism. Trump vs. Powell Fed Chair Powell resisted political pressure, stating rate cuts are unlikely before September. Trump called him โ€œstubbornโ€ and demanded immediate easing. Outlook ๐Ÿ”ฎ: The Fedโ€™s independence is under strain. If Trump wins re-election, major policy shifts could follow. ๐Ÿ“ˆ U.S. Inflation Despite tariffs, core inflation remains elevated. Powell warned of persistent price pressures. Trump insists the Fed should cut rates to boost growth. Outlook ๐Ÿ”ฎ: A rate cut later in 2025 is possibleโ€”if labor market data weakens. Until then, inflation will remain politically explosive. ## Technical View ๐Ÿ“๐Ÿ“ˆ **Current Market Context:** Gold plummeted to $3,273.67 USD/t.oz on June 27, 2025, marking a 1.65% drop from the previous day, which confirms the strong bearish momentum. The price action shows a significant retreat from recent highs around $3,400. **ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Methodology Analysis:** * **Market Structure:** The trend is clearly bearish, with a definitive break of structure (BOS) to the downside. * **Order Blocks:** Several bearish order blocks have been identified at prior resistance levels, specifically in the $3,380-$3,400 range. * **Fair Value Gaps (FVG):** The aggressive sell-off has created multiple imbalances, particularly in the $3,350-$3,320 range. * **Liquidity Pools:** Buy-side liquidity above $3,400 has been swept. Sell-side liquidity is now accumulating below the $3,270 lows, which is the current target zone. * **Session Analysis:** The London session showed aggressive selling, followed by a continuation of bearish momentum in the New York session. The Asia session could see consolidation or further declines. * **Smart Money Concepts:** Heavy selling pressure suggests "smart money" distribution. There's been strong bearish displacement from $3,380 down to $3,270, indicating the market is currently in a "sell program" phase. **Gann Analysis:** * **Gann Angles & Time Cycles:** The primary 1x1 Gann angle has been broken, pointing to continued weakness. Key price squares indicate resistance at $3,375 (25ยฒ) and support at $3,249 (57ยฒ). Daily cycles suggest a potential turning point around June 30-July 1, while weekly cycles indicate continued pressure through early July. * **Gann Levels:** * Resistance: $3,375, $3,400, $3,481 (59ยฒ) * Support: $3,249, $3,136, $3,025 **Fibonacci Analysis:** * **Key Retracement Levels (from recent swing high to low):** * 78.6%: $3,378 (Strong resistance) * 61.8%: $3,348 (Key resistance zone) * 50.0%: $3,325 (Psychological level) * 38.2%: $3,302 (Minor resistance) * 23.6%: $3,285 (Current area of interest) * **Fibonacci Extensions (Downside Targets):** * 127.2%: $3,245 * 161.8%: $3,195 * 261.8%: $3,095 * **Time-Based Fibonacci:** The next significant time cluster is July 2-3, 2025, with a major cycle completion expected around July 15-17, 2025. **Institutional Levels & Volume Analysis:** * **Key Institutional Levels:** * Major Resistance: $3,400 (psychological + institutional) * Secondary Resistance: $3,350-$3,375 (order block cluster) * Primary Support: $3,250-$3,270 (institutional accumulation zone) * Major Support: $3,200 (monthly pivot area) * **Volume Profile Analysis:** * High Volume Node (HVN): $3,320-$3,340 (fair value area) * Low Volume Node (LVN): $3,280-$3,300 (potential acceleration zone) * Point of Control (POC): Currently around $3,330 **Central Bank & Hedge Fund Levels:** Based on recent COT data and institutional positioning, heavy resistance is seen at $3,400-$3,430, where institutions likely distributed. An accumulation zone for "smart money" re-entry is anticipated at $3,200-$3,250. **Cycle Timing Analysis:** * **Short-Term Cycles (Intraday):** Bearish momentum is expected to continue for another 12-18 hours. A daily cycle low is likely between June 29-30, with a potential reversal zone on July 1-2 for the 3-day cycle. * **Medium-Term Cycles:** The current weekly cycle is in week 3 of a 4-week decline. The monthly cycle indicates a mid-cycle correction within a larger uptrend. For the quarterly cycle, Q3 2025 could see a major low formation. * **Seasonal Patterns:** July-August is typically a weaker period for gold ("Summer Doldrums"). September has historically been strong for precious metals ("September Effect"), setting up for a potential major move higher in Q4 2025 ("Year-End Rally"). **Trading Strategy & Levels:** * **Bearish Scenario (Primary):** * Entry: Sell rallies into the $3,320-$3,350 resistance zone. * Targets: $3,250, $3,200, $3,150. * Stop Loss: Above $3,380. * **Bullish Scenario (Secondary):** * Entry: Buy support at $3,250-$3,270 with confirmation. * Targets: $3,320, $3,375, $3,400. * Stop Loss: Below $3,230. **Key Events to Watch:** * **US PCE Data:** Fresh downside risks could emerge ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data release. * **Fed Communications:** Any hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could further pressure gold. * **Geopolitical Developments:** Ongoing global events could trigger safe-haven demand. **Conclusion:** The technical picture for gold suggests continued short-term weakness, with the metal testing its 2025 trend line at $3,290 following last week's rejection at the $3,430 resistance. However, the longer-term outlook remains constructive, given gold's robust performance year-to-date. Key support at $3,250-$3,270 will be crucial in determining the next significant price movement. **Upcoming Week's Economic Calendar (June 29 - July 4, 2025):** ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ๐ŸŒ ๐Ÿ—“๏ธ Get ready for these important economic events (EDT) * ** Sunday , June 29, 2025** * 21:30 CNY: Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 49.6, Previous: 49.5 * ** Monday , June 30, 2025** * 09:45 USD: Chicago PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 42.7, Previous: 40.5 * ** Tuesday , July 1, 2025** * 05:00 EUR: CPI (YoY) (Jun) - Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 1.9% * 09:30 USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks * 09:45 USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 52.0, Previous: 52.0 * 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 48.8, Previous: 48.5 * 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 70.2, Previous: 69.4 * 10:00 USD: JOLTS Job Openings (May) - Forecast: 7.450M, Previous: 7.391M * ** Wednesday , July 2, 2025** * 08:15 USD: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) - Forecast: 80K, Previous: 37K * 10:30 USD: Crude Oil Inventories - Forecast: -5.836M * ** Thursday , July 3, 2025** * Holiday: United States - Independence Day (Early close at 13:00) ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโฐ * 08:30 USD: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) - Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4% * 08:30 USD: Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast: 239K, Previous: 236K * 08:30 USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) - Forecast: 129K, Previous: 139K * 08:30 USD: Unemployment Rate (Jun) - Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.2% * 09:45 USD: S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 53.1, Previous: 53.1 * 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 50.3, Previous: 49.9 * 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 68.7 * ** Friday , July 4, 2025** * All Day: Holiday - United States - Independence Day ๐ŸŽ† **Gold Price Forecast for the Coming Week** ๐Ÿ”ฎ๐Ÿ’ฐ Given last week's market movements, there's a strong likelihood that the downward trend in gold prices will continue.๐Ÿ”ฝ However, fresh news can always flip the script! ๐Ÿ”„ As of now, I expect gold to dip further to $3255 by mid-next week. Yet, a brief rebound towards $3300 isn't out of the question before a potential drop to $3200 by week's end or early the following week. ๐Ÿคž Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. ๐Ÿ’ฌ ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! ๐Ÿ“ข Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks โ€“ only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! ๐Ÿš€๐Ÿ“Š
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Wick-Sniper
GOLD UPCOMING WEEK ANALYSIS/SET UP On the M5 timeframe, a confirmed candle closure above 3283 would signal a shift toward short-term bullish momentum. In this scenario, the market is likely to attract buyers looking to capitalize on upward continuation. A logical strategy would be to wait for a pullback toward the 3264 or 3278 zone all depending upon price action ie swing lows, It's important to maintain a tight stop loss just below the pullback low, as the expected targets in this bullish leg are first 3291, followed by the psychological level of 3300. These levels may offer minor resistance, and partial profit-taking around them could be considered. If buying pressure remains strong and the price closes decisively above 3303, this would confirm a continuation of bullish intent. At that point, the market is likely to push toward the unmitigated supply zone marked on the chart. This zone has not been fully tested and may act as a key inflection point where institutional selling could re-enter the market. we should watch price behavior closely in this area, as signs of rejectionโ€”such as a bearish engulfing candle or a failure to hold above 3323โ€”would suggest exhaustion of bullish momentum. If the market fails to hold above 3323 and instead closes below it, this would shift the bias to bearish. Such a rejection would present a high-probability sell opportunity, with the expectation of a move back toward this weekโ€™s low. This bearish move would likely be driven by a combination of profit-taking and reactivation of supply from the unmitigated zone, aligning well with smart money principles targeting liquidity beneath recent lows. Note: Only for educational purpose not a financial advice
TVC:GOLD
by Awii_Khan
Gold Prices Retreat, Short-term Bearish Trend PrevailsOn Friday, gold prices rebounded to $3,328 at the start of Asian trading but were resisted, followed by a sustained decline. Influenced by the U.S. May PCE price index data during the U.S. session, prices hit a low of $3,255 and closed at around $3,274, forming a large bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow on the daily chart. Influencing Factors: Optimistic expectations on trade agreements boosted market risk appetite, weakening gold's safe-haven appeal. Technical Analysis: - Daily chart: Gold has broken below the 5-day moving average, with short-term moving averages in a bearish arrangement. - 4-hour chart: The Bollinger Bands have widened, and prices are trending lower along the lower band. The key resistance level at $3,310 is criticalโ€”failure to reclaim this level may intensify short-term selling pressure. Outlook for Next Week: Events such as the global central bank governors' meeting, non-farm payroll data release, and discussions on Powell's potential resignation will disrupt the market. Gold is expected to fluctuate sharply around $3,270, with caution advised for a secondary bottoming. Comprehensive Judgment: The bearish probability is high: - Upper Resistance: Focus on the $3,310โ€“$3,300 range, a key bull-bear dividing line. A breakthrough here could reverse the trend. - Lower Support: Watch the $3,250 levelโ€”breaking below it may open further downside. Indicator Signals: - MACD: Bearish crossover below the zero line with expanding green bars, indicating accelerating downward momentum. - RSI: At 39 in the oversold zone, showing potential for a short-term bottom, but bearish momentum remains dominant. XAUUSD sell@3290~3280 sl:3310 tp๏ผš3260~3250 I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by H_C_02
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook โ€“ July 1 to July 5, 2025Gold is will consolidating below broken trendline resistance and trading inside a short-term bearish channel. A critical support zone lies ahead, while bulls may try to reclaim lost ground. Here's the structured outlook: Key Levels: ๐Ÿ”บ Resistance: R1: 3297 โ€“ 23.6% Fib level + Trendline confluence zone R2: 3325 โ€“ 3337 โ€“ Strong structural zone + previous highs ๐Ÿ”ป Support: S1: 3252 โ€“ Recent swing low (Fib 0%) S2: 3203 โ€“ Psychological and structural level S3: 3125 โ€“ 3165 โ€“ Weekly support area ๐Ÿง  Bias Scenarios: โœ… Bullish Scenario: If bulls reclaim above 3297 (R1) and sustain: Potential push toward R2: 3325โ€“3337. Watch for bullish breakout from the falling channel. Targets will expand if price holds above the green long-term trendline. โŒ Bearish Scenario: If gold fails to break and hold above the green trendline and 3297, expect: Continuation inside the falling channel. Bearish push toward S1: 3252, and if broken, slide toward S2: 3203 and even S3: 3125โ€“3165. Technical Signals: Price respecting Fibonacci retracement zones. Bearish channel still intact, awaiting breakout confirmation. Volume shows bearish pressure near resistance zones. Weekly support could act as a demand base if market sentiment shifts. Summary for Next Week: โš ๏ธ Watch how price reacts around 3297 and the trendline. Rejection will likely open the path to lower supports. A breakout above resistance with volume can switch momentum bullish again. Note: Stay cautious with macroeconomic events or USD strength-related catalysts.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mimamunmd