GOLD/USD bearish outlook suggesting further downside is expectedOrder block: Highlighted in a yellow box, indicating a potential supply/demand zone.
Support zones: Green boxes that suggest areas where price may find buying interest.
Price projections: Annotations show possible bearish movement with two targets.
ABC pattern: The letters A, B, C, and D mark a potential harmonic or price movement pattern.
First and Final Target: Two green zones marked as target areas for potential price decline.
Red Arrow: Indicates a bearish outlook suggesting further downside is expected.
Notable Features:
Price Peaks and Corrections: The chart identifies a major peak followed by multiple retracements and lower highs/lows.
Buy/Sell Prices Displayed: Current bid (SELL) is 3,267.055 and ask (BUY) is 3,267.652.
Percentage Changes: Green percentage values (e.g., 0.57%, 0.63%) show gains between points.
Highlighted Zone (Red Rectangle): Could indicate a resistance area or previous high zone.
Interpretation:
The analysis suggests that the price of gold (XAU/USD) has recently peaked and is expected to move lower.
After a small retracement to the first target zone, a further drop is expected toward the final target.
Strong support is marked below the final target area, possibly indicating where buyers might re-enter.
This is a classic technical analysis chart likely used to plan a short trade setup based on price action and structure.
10:43 pm
Futures market
Don't chase gold if it falls below $3,300
The Trump administration's tariff policy has been stopped through judicial procedures. Affected by this news, it is inevitable that gold will continue to fall back today: yesterday's rebound hit the resistance level and fell back to $3,325. The market fell sharply in the early trading, and the market pattern quickly changed from range fluctuations to bearish dominance. From a technical analysis, the bearish pattern of the medium-term weekly cycle is forming effective pressure. Even if there is a sharp rebound in the future and breaks through the recent highs, it is very likely to be a bull trap-essentially a precursor to a return to a downward trend after a decline.
Gold/USD
Sales @3270-3280
TP: 3250-3240
sl: 3290
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose a lot size that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/29/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 21597.00
- PR Low: 21489.00
- NZ Spread: 241.5
Key scheduled economic events:
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
- GDP
12:00 | Crude Inventories
Open session with momentum break beyond 21600
- 2% value increase before London hours
Session Open Stats (As of 1:15 AM 5/29)
- Session Open ATR: 455.84
- Volume: 81K
- Open Int: 267K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -3.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22096
- Mid: 20383
- Short: 19246
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Coffee Pullback or Opportunity?The COT report dated May 20, 2025, reveals a gradual cooling of speculative sentiment in the coffee market. Non-commercials (speculative funds and money managers), who had largely fueled the strong rally towards the 420 USX/lb highs, are now closing long positions (–2,599 contracts), though they still maintain a significantly positive net exposure (+43,300 net contracts).
At the same time, commercials (industry operators such as roasters, exporters, and processors) have reduced both their long and short positions. However, the drop in short hedges (–4,103 contracts) is an important signal—it may suggest less need for downside protection at current prices, often an early sign of a potential market bottom.
Total open interest has decreased by 4,406 contracts, signaling a phase of liquidation and consolidation, where traders are reducing exposure rather than initiating new positions.
📌 Fundamental conclusion: The market is undergoing a healthy reset following the Q1 2025 boom, with speculators stepping back and commercials cautiously optimistic.
📈 Seasonal Analysis
Seasonal tendencies align well with the current technical outlook. May is historically a weak month, with negative average returns across most time frames (10y, 15y, 20y).
However, from June—especially July onward, data shows a strong seasonal rebound, with July–August being statistically the best-performing period of the year for coffee. This is partly due to climate-related risks (Brazilian winter, frost risk) and harvest/logistics cycles in key producing regions.
📌 Seasonal conclusion: June may offer a strategic accumulation window ahead of the traditional summer coffee rally.
🧭 Technical Analysis (Daily)
The KC1! daily chart clearly reflects a distribution and correction phase following the early March peak at 420 USX/lb.
Price has broken below the 355–360 demand zone and is currently testing a key support area between 340 and 325, previously established as a demand base during January–February 2025.
The medium-term trend remains bullish, but the market is now in a downward corrective channel, with lower highs and lower lows.
The weekly RSI sits in a low-neutral range—not yet fully oversold, suggesting there may still be room for further downside, though the bulk of the correction may already be priced in.
📌 Technical conclusion: The market is undergoing a deep pullback within a broader uptrend and is approaching potential reversal zones.
🔎 Strategic Outlook
The coffee market is in the midst of a cyclical and technical correction following its sharp Q1 2025 rally. The COT report reflects a rebalancing of speculative positioning, while commercials appear less aggressive on the short side. Seasonality favors a rebound starting June, and the technicals point to a potential long-entry zone around 340–325, attractive for medium-term positioning.
✅ Recommended Trading Setup
Base scenario (medium-term long):
Entry: Between 340 and 325 USX/lb (gradual accumulation)
Stop Loss: Weekly close below 320 (bearish confirmation)
Target 1: 390 (intermediate supply zone)
Target 2: 410–420 (return to highs)
Confluence: RSI support, COT shift, seasonal upside, technical demand zone
Alternative scenario (bearish breakdown):
Only if weekly closes below 320
This would open room toward 300–285 USX/lb
📌 Final Conclusion
While short-term caution is warranted, current conditions offer attractive long re-entry opportunities for those who await confirmation around the 325–340 support area.
The ideal setup would include:
Weekly stabilization with higher lows
Renewed speculative long positioning in COT
Seasonal momentum kicking in from mid-June
5.29: Gold price continues to short at high level5.29: Gold price continues to short at high level
Gold price has three consecutive negative lines on the daily line, and continues to adjust
After the gold price falls below 3285 and stabilizes under pressure, the space below will open further, and may reach 3230-3200.
The monthly line tends to close with a cross star
4H cycle:
The triangle convergence range narrows and consolidates, then breaks downward, and the Bollinger Bands turn downward. The intraday pressure of the middle track continues to be bearish.
The moving average pressure is at 3285. In terms of operation, short selling is mainly based on this rebound, and the bottom looks to 3250 and 3230.
Key resistance/support levels:
Resistance: US$3294 (daily turning point), US$3315.
Support: US$3245-3230, US$3205.
Operation suggestion: Short gold near 3284-86, stop loss at 3294, look to 3250, 3225! Weakness can rely on the pressure of 3272-75 to short!
Fundamentals:
Geopolitical crisis cools down, US bond yields rise, and gold shorts may dominate the market
The Fed's interest rate meeting released key signals: Most officials pointed out that the current impact of tariffs on the economy is greater than expected, coupled with inflation stickiness pressure, interest rates will remain unchanged in the short term, and expectations of interest rate cuts will be further cooled.
At the same time, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the US-Iran nuclear negotiations have made phased progress, geopolitical risk aversion has cooled, and the market demand for safe-haven US dollar assets has rebounded.
Affected by this, the US dollar index broke through the 105 mark strongly, and the international gold price fell below the key support level of 3278 and accelerated its decline, reaching a minimum of 3245. The daily level formed a convergent triangle breakthrough pattern, and the technical short trend was strengthened.
XAUUSD 30M CHART PATTERNThis chart is a 30-minute timeframe for CFDs on Gold (US$/OZ), showing a potential long (buy) trade setup with clearly defined risk and reward parameters:
Key Elements:
Entry Zone: Around the current price level (approx. 3,271.44).
Take Profit (TP): Targeted near 3,340.93, suggesting a bullish move toward previous highs.
Stop Loss (SL): Set just below 3,250.56, indicating a cutoff in case the price declines.
Observations:
Bullish Setup: The price has bounced from a recent low and shows a possible reversal pattern. This is further supported by the expected upward trajectory.
Risk/Reward Ratio: Visually, the TP zone is significantly larger than the SL zone, indicating a favorable risk/reward setup.
Market Context: The chart shows recent volatility with sharp moves, so risk management is critical.
Would you like help calculating the exact risk/reward ratio or analyzing whether this is a high-probability setup based on technical indicators or patterns?
XAU/USD(20250529) Today's AnalysisMarket news:
Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting: The risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased, and the benefits of flexible average inflation targeting in a high-risk environment have weakened; "Federal Reserve mouthpiece": Stagflation forecasts may become the tone of the Federal Reserve's June economic forecast summary.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
3296
Support and resistance levels:
3345
3327
3315
3278
3266
3248
Trading strategy:
If the price breaks through 3266, consider buying, the first target price is 3278
If the price breaks through 3248, consider selling, the first target price is 3225
Gold Technical Analysis - Potential Rising Wedge Signals CautionGold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,340 - $3,350 area, exhibiting a bullish market structure characterized by higher highs and higher lows. The price has recently tested the resistance zone between $3,330 and $3,350, a level that has previously acted as a ceiling for upward movements. A decisive break above this resistance could pave the way for further gains, with potential targets at $3,371 and beyond. Conversely, failure to sustain above this level may lead to a pullback toward the support zone around $3,300.
The rising wedge on Gold signals caution for bulls. Unless there's a strong breakout above $3,365 , the pattern favors a bearish move toward $3,250 or lower.
✅ Long Bias – Bullish Outlook
Gold is currently trading in an uptrend , supported by:
Higher lows and higher highs structure.
Strong bullish momentum on the rebound from the recent dip around $3,120 .
Fundamentals like economic uncertainty, interest rate cut expectations, or geopolitical tension that often support gold prices.
If price breaks and holds above $3,350–$3,365 , it would confirm bullish continuation, and a long position targeting $3,400–$3,500 is valid.
🔻 Short Setup – Bearish Outlook
Consider a short trade only if:
Price gets rejected from $3,350–$3,365 .
A lower high is confirmed (on H4 or Daily TF).
Bearish candlestick patterns appear at resistance.
Break below $3,300 would open downside targets to $3,250 , and potentially $3,200 .
⚠️ Caution Zone – Potential Pullback
However, there are early signs of exhaustion:
Price is testing a descending trendline + previous weekly high (~$3,330–$3,350) – a key decision point.
If rejection is confirmed, we might see a retest of support near $3,300 or $3,250 .
📊 Current Market Structure
Chart Pattern : Rising Wedge
Timeframe : 4H and Daily
Resistance Trendline : Connecting recent highs around $3,320 → $3,350 → $3,365
Support Trendline : Connecting higher lows around $3,250 → $3,300 → $3,330
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?The Gold (XAU/USD) is rising towards the pivot, which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support, which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 3,284.50
1st Support: 3,205.30
1st Resistance: 3,232.71
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bullish rise?WTI Oil (XTI/USD) has bounced off the pivot and could rise the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 61.68
1st Support: 60.72
1st Resistance: 63.49
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Gold rebounded after hitting the bottom. Don't shortOn Wednesday, the New York International Trade Court of the United States stopped Trump's planned tariff policy; it ruled that Trump's act of imposing comprehensive tariffs on countries that export more to the United States than imports without the authorization of Congress was an overstep. This means that most of Trump's tariffs will be suspended.
After the news came out, gold fell rapidly, hitting a low of $3,245. It has now adjusted back and maintained around 3,270 for consolidation. From the current point of view, most traders with short strategies have taken profits around 3,250.
From the hourly chart, gold has started to pull back from $3,265 this week, and as of the current low of $3,245, it is a three-wave downward trend. The first wave fell to $3,225, and then rebounded to $3,350. The second wave fell from $3350 to $3285, and then rebounded to $3325.
The third wave of decline has been completed. According to the early decline and then the rise, the current rebound from $3245 is likely to test around $3300.
However, considering that $3285 is the previous low point, $3285 is also the upward pressure position this time.
Therefore, we should pay close attention to the pressure range of $3285-3295. If it can stabilize below $3295, then we can rely on the $3295-3285 range for short operations.
On the contrary, if the rebound is stabilized above 3300, it is necessary to stop loss in time.
GOLD Trade Plan 27.05.2025Dear Traders,
The 3360 resistance was not broken, and gold dropped 800 pips from the top. I expect the price to fall to around the 3240–3260 area, and if the decline continues, we will enter a bearish phase with a target of 3000.
if you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza
Gold Trade Plan 28/05/2025Dear Traders,
As long as the price remains below the 3340 zone, the bearish scenario remains valid. If the 3340 zone is strongly broken, the bearish scenario will be invalidated. The final target in case of a continued downtrend would be 3245–3260.
if you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza!
Gold 100% Trading SignalsFrom the 4-hour analysis, today's upper resistance is around 3288-95, the short-term short-term weak dividing line is 3300-10, and the short-term support below is 3240-45, maintaining the main tone of participating in the trend unchanged.
Gold falls back to 3258-3264, buy more when it falls back to 3240-45, stop loss at 3233, target at 3280-3285, break to 3300-05
Gold bears will dominate the marketFrom the market point of view, the delay of the Fed's policy shift and the mitigation of geopolitical risks have a double-kill effect: on the one hand, high interest rates limit the attractiveness of gold; on the other hand, the retreat of safe-haven buying has intensified selling pressure. In the short term, pay attention to the support of the 3240-3250 range. If it fails, it may drop to the psychological level of 3200; but after oversold, be wary of technical rebounds. The 3280-3300 line above will become a key resistance. Be cautious in chasing orders, and the trend is mainly rebound shorting.
Gold recommendation: short near the rebound of 3282-3287, stop loss 3295, target 3253
XAUUSD – Weakening signals, growing risk of breakdownGold is trading around $3,273 after a clear drop from the $3,314 resistance zone. On the H8 chart, price has approached the long-term ascending trendline and is hovering near the EMA 89 – a very critical confluence area.
At the moment, price is forming a sideways pattern just above the trendline, but the recovery momentum remains weak. If gold breaks below this zone, the uptrend will officially be invalidated, and the next target could be the $3,135 technical support.
On the news front: The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. Core PCE data this weekend. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, and if the reading comes in stronger than expected, expectations of prolonged high interest rates could return – which would put significant pressure on gold.
XAUUSD Idea: Structure, Fibonacci Setup & S&P 500 Correlation📉 XAUUSD Trade Outlook 🧠🔍
Currently analyzing Gold (XAUUSD), and things are getting interesting. On the daily timeframe, we’ve seen a clear bearish break of market structure, and this shift is also evident on the 4-hour chart. 🕰️📉
I’m watching closely for a bullish retracement into my key Fibonacci 61.8% level, where I’ll be looking for confirmation of a bearish structural break to initiate a short position. 🎯🔽
When we compare this setup to the US500 (S&P 500), it becomes even more compelling. The indices have rallied hard and appear overextended — a correction seems likely. 📊🧾
If we do get that pullback in the indices, gold may rally temporarily, but my overall bias remains bearish. If the indices resume their uptrend after a pullback, I expect gold to weaken further, aligning with my current short-side outlook. ⚠️📉
🛑 This is not financial advice. Always do your own analysis and manage risk according to your trading plan.
💬 What are your thoughts on gold right now? Are you leaning bullish or bearish? Let me know in the comments! 👇
XAUUSD 1-Hour Technical & Fundamental AnalysisXAUUSD 1-Hour Technical & Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices have shown clear signs of exhaustion around the $3,370 level, suggesting a potential slowdown in bullish momentum. This aligns with the improving global economic outlook, which is reducing investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold, resulting in a notable pullback in price.
On the 1-hour chart, we identified a well-formed Head & Shoulders pattern, signaling a potential trend reversal. The major key support at $3,280 has been tested multiple times, establishing its strength. Price recently broke below this level, confirming bearish intent and opening the door for potential further downside movement.
On the 15-minute timeframe, signs of accumulation appeared, followed by a retest of the previous major support (now resistance). This behavior suggests a possible liquidity hunt, where institutional players may manipulate price to trigger stop-losses before placing large sell orders.
📉 Bearish Fundamentals for Gold
Market Exhaustion:
Gold is losing bullish strength around ₹98,000 ($3,370), as improved economic conditions make investors less risk-averse, reducing gold’s appeal.
Federal Reserve's Hawkish Tone:
The Fed plans only two rate cuts in 2025, a more cautious stance than expected. This boosts the U.S. dollar’s strength, adding pressure on gold prices.
💵 Bullish News for the U.S. Dollar
Fed's Rate Policy:
The Fed's less aggressive rate-cut path strengthens the USD, making it more attractive to global investors.
U.S. Economic Resilience:
Solid U.S. data and reduced recession fears continue to fuel dollar demand, giving it an edge over gold as a safe haven.
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
XAUUSD Bearish Breakdown| Trend Reversal Bearish Setup Price has broken below the rising channel, showing early signs of a potential bearish reversal.
Key Resistance: 3364
Current Price: 3334
Support Levels to Watch:
3282 (first support)
3250 (major target)
If price fails to reclaim the channel and retests 3364 without strength, we could see a deeper drop below 3282. A bounce from 3282 might offer short-term buy setups, but momentum favors bears for now.
Trade Plan:
Short below 3325 with SL above 3364
Target: 3282, extended to 3250
Let me know your thoughts! Are you bullish or bearish here?
#technicalanalysis #priceaction #tradingview #USD #bearishsetup