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Next Monday: Gold price can wait for 3300-3320 to shortNext Monday: Gold price can wait for 3300-3320 to short Latest gold market news and analysis in June: 1. Gold price fell sharply, falling for the second consecutive week Spot gold fell 2.8% this week, closing at $3273/ounce on Friday, and fell below $3255 during the session, hitting a new low in nearly a month. 2. Analysis of the reasons for the decline The situation in the Middle East has eased: Israel and Iran have reached a ceasefire agreement, weakening the safe-haven demand for gold. Market risk appetite has rebounded: European and American stock markets have risen, and some funds have shifted from gold to stocks. Changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations: Although the market expects the probability of a rate cut in September to rise to 75%, the probability of a rate cut in July is only 20%, and short-term support is insufficient. The dollar is weak but gold prices have not benefited: The US dollar index fell 1.47% this week, but gold failed to get a boost, indicating that the safe-haven premium has subsided. 3. Market sentiment is divided: The survey shows that 41% of investors expect gold prices to rise next week, 46% are bearish, and 13% are neutral. 4. Future focus: July 9 tariff negotiation deadline: If the United States reaches an agreement with trading partners such as the European Union, it may further weaken safe-haven demand. Fed policy signals: Pay attention to speeches by Fed officials next week and June non-farm data. Geopolitical risks: Although the situation in the Middle East has eased, potential conflicts may still push up risk aversion again. 5. Technical analysis: Support level: $3,250 (if broken, it may fall to $3,120). Resistance level: $3,300-3,346 range, or challenge $3,450 after breaking through. Gold 4-hour chart: High pressure zone: 3280-3300 Support zone: 3250-3260 Market analysis: The current daily chart is running in a larger range; Intraday long range: 3250-3260. Intraday short range: 3280--3300--3345. The 4-hour structure continues to fall and weaken, and short selling should be active at present. Next week, aim at the upper 3300-3310-20-30 pressure level, stagflation reversal K-line appears, enter the market and short
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Isla_suri001
Gold Weekly ReviewGold Weekly Review: The Long-Short Strangling War after the Geopolitical Smoke Dissipated When Trump announced the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran on social media, the market's risk aversion was like a deflated ball - the trend of gold prices plummeting 2% in a single day exposed the most vulnerable weakness of contemporary gold: in the dual game between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and geopolitical risks, the risk aversion attribute is gradually becoming a supporting role. But what is more interesting is the subsequent statement of the Iranian Foreign Minister: "There is no plan to restart nuclear negotiations." This suggests that geopolitical risks are only temporarily dormant rather than disappearing. Combined with Trump's threat to "stop lifting sanctions on Iran," the carnival of gold bears may just be the calm before the storm. The PCE data in May in the United States staged an absurd drama of "inflation stickiness + consumption shrinkage": Core PCE increased by 2.7% year-on-year (a new high this year), confirming the rationality of the Fed's "higher for longer". Consumer spending unexpectedly fell by 0.1% (the first time in 21 months), but it laid the groundwork for the expectation of interest rate cuts. This contradiction has created a strange scene in the interest rate futures market: traders bet on the probability of a rate cut in September to rise to 68%, while cutting the expectation of a rate cut in 2025 from 4 to 3 times. The Fed is trapped in the data maze it created, and gold has become a victim of this policy hesitation period. 4-hour chart Death triangle descending channel + Bollinger band opening: Price breaks through 3280/3255 two lines of defense continuously, MACD forms "crocodile mouth" pattern below zero axis Key watershed: 3295-3301 area gathers 50-day moving average and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, forming the last line of defense for bears Bloody warning for operators The current market is a paradise for trend traders, but a hell for short-term traders: Main trend strategy: Shorting in 3295-3301 area (stop loss 3326) is the only opportunity worth heavy position, target 3250 break can chase to 3220 against the trend Picking chestnuts: Try to buy with a light position near 3250 (strict stop loss at 3238) needs to be coordinated with the 15-minute RSI bottom divergence, and the position must not exceed the opening of the US market Powell's "resignation" black swan: Trump's threat to replace the Fed chairman may cause the market to question the continuity of policies. Global Central Bank Governors Summit: If Powell and Lagarde release synchronized easing signals, gold may usher in a retaliatory rebound. Non-agricultural data sniper war: If the unemployment rate breaks the 4.0% threshold, it will directly trigger expectations of a rate cut in September. The author's cold reminder: When the gold price closes below 3250 on a weekly basis, it means that the upward trend in 2024 has officially ended. Before the Fed gives a clear signal of a policy shift, any bottom-fishing behavior is equivalent to being hostile to the trend.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Liz_Trading_gold
Gold market weekly reviewGold market weekly review: the long-short dilemma and trader dilemma under the PCE inflation game On Friday, the US core PCE price index in May was 2.6% year-on-year, slightly higher than expected. This data, regarded by the Federal Reserve as an "inflation vane", once again revealed the contradictory background of the US economy - the tug-of-war between the stubborn inflation stickiness and the weak consumption momentum. After the data was released, the market reacted violently but chaotically: the US dollar index briefly dived 10 points and then quickly recovered its lost ground, while gold staged a "buy expectations and sell facts" drama, with a minimum of $3,255/ounce. Behind this is the serious disagreement among traders on the policy path - CME interest rate futures show that the probability of a rate cut in September is still anchored at 68%, but the expectation of a rate cut for the whole year of 2025 has been compressed from 4 times to 3 times. What is more worthy of vigilance is the ghost effect of tariff policy. As the election approaches, trade protectionism rhetoric is rampant, and companies' pre-stocking behavior may temporarily lower inflation readings, but the reconstruction of supply chain costs in the medium and long term will strengthen the "higher for longer" interest rate narrative. In my opinion, the current market is repeating the script of "inflation repetition-expectation swing" in 2023, and the certainty of the Fed's policy shift is being swallowed by uncertainty. Key signals of the 4-hour cycle The falling channel is complete: After yesterday's cross star, there was no continuous positive rebound, and the 3280-3295 area constituted a double Fibonacci suppression (38.2% & 50% retracement level). The MACD column was released twice below the zero axis, suggesting that the shorts still have pricing power. Long-short watershed: 3250 is not only a psychological barrier, but also the last line of defense of the 2024 rising trend line. If it is lost, it will open the door to test the 3200-3180 gap. Retail trading trap warning The recent daily fluctuation of gold is 100-200 US dollars. On the surface, it is a feast of opportunities, but in fact it is a liquidity hunting ground. I have witnessed too many traders repeatedly "selling high and buying low" in the 3280-3250 range, and finally being swept by the sudden market in both directions. It is necessary to clearly realize that the current market is in the late stage of trend acceleration, and volatility expansion is often accompanied by price deviation correction. Short strategy Ideal sniper position: 3280 (Asia-European market rebound limit) and 3295 (US market second test position), stop loss is strictly placed above 3303, target 3245-3230 Key risk control: If the price stands at 3287 within 30 minutes, you need to manually exit and wait and see Bull strategy Pick chestnuts from the fire position: 3243-3247 light position to try more (need to cooperate with 15-minute RSI bottom divergence), stop loss 3238, target 3265 Cruel reality: The winning rate of counter-trend trading is less than 35%, it is recommended to halve the position and give up the fantasy of "averaging costs" Ultimate warning The closing battle of the monthly line may trigger a liquidity vacuum killing, and any "bottom-fishing" behavior below 3250 must be equipped with a hedge position. Remember: before the market proves the bottom, the price is the most honest killer.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Trend_Trading_xau
SHORT WEEK Waiting for Pullback h4 and go down .The market is at a point where we should sell, it is at a maximum of Elliott Waves, wave 5 is already extremely extended, so get ready for a mega drop of several weeks while everyone continues to buy at the highs, it will keep going down. In summary, we have a bullish market on H4, now there will be a correction on H1, meaning a bearish trend on H1 for several weeks. We are at point 3 of the major wave and now it will seek major point 4. Remember: After 5 waves, 1 correction comes.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by KMXAU
Down the road - Gold Outlook June 30 - July 24, 2025FX_IDC:XAUUSD 📰 The past weeks has been a wild ride for gold prices, caught between the fiery conflict in the Middle East and a deluge of crucial economic data from the U.S. 📈 Adding to this, a detailed technical analysis provides a deeper look into gold's immediate future. **Geopolitical Drama Unfolds & Peace Prevails!** 🕊️ ceasefire negotiations. Initially, gold was shrouded in uncertainty 🌫️ due to the Iran-Israel war, with markets bracing for potential U.S. involvement and a full-blown escalation. Daily tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel kept everyone on edge, and the question of U.S. intervention remained a nail-biter 😬, though President Trump did announce a 14-day "timeout". Then came the dramatic twist on June 21st: "Operation Midnighthammer" saw the U.S. unleash bunker-buster bombs on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities. 💥 Short time later, the U.S. declared mission accomplished, stating their goal of destroying these sites was achieved, and no further attacks would follow. Iran's response, "Operation Annunciation of Victory," on the following Monday, involved missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq. 🚀 Interestingly, these attacks were pre-announced, allowing for safe evacuations and thankfully, no casualties. 🙏 The biggest surprise came from President Trump as he declared, "Congratulations world, it's time for peace!" 🎉 He then brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which, despite being fragile, largely held, leading to the war's end.🤝 Both nations, as expected, officially claimed victory – a common move to satisfy their citizens. 🏅 Personally, I was genuinely surprised that the U.S.President mediated ceasefire, actually brought the conflict to a close – but it's a welcome outcome! 🙏 **Economic Data & Fed's Steady Hand** 💹🏛️ The cessation of hostilities triggered a steady downward slide in gold prices from June 24th to 27th. ⬇️ This dip initially met some market resistance but it ultimately prevailed, especially with the release of mixed U.S. economic data, which, despite being varied, was generally interpreted positively by the market. The spotlight also shone on the Federal Reserve, with several representatives speaking and Fed Chair Jerome Powell undergoing a two-day Senate hearing. 🎤👨‍⚖️ Powell meticulously explained the Fed's rationale for holding interest rates steady, despite market pressures. 🤷 However, recent whispers suggest the Federal Reserve might actually cut rates in September! 😮 ## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰 India / Pakistan Pakistan rejected claims that it supported militant groups active in Indian Kashmir. India issued a formal protest but reported no fresh border clashes during the week. Outlook 🔮: De-escalation is possible in the short term. However, unresolved disputes over water rights (Indus Treaty) could reignite tensions. Gaza Conflict Heavy Israeli airstrikes killed dozens in Gaza, including civilians near aid centers. The UN warned that U.S.-backed aid systems are failing. Humanitarian corridors remain blocked. Outlook 🔮: Ceasefire talks may resume in July, but success depends on international pressure and safe humanitarian access. Russia / Ukraine Russia advanced 36 sq mi in eastern Ukraine, deploying outdated T-62 tanks. Ukraine reinforced defensive lines, aided by Western military packages. Outlook 🔮: The front remains volatile. Sustained Western support will be key to halting further Russian gains. U.S. – China Trade War A breakthrough deal was signed for China to fast-track rare-earth exports to the U.S. Talks on tech transfer and tariffs continue behind closed doors. Outlook 🔮: A phased de-escalation is possible, but deep trust issues linger, especially over semiconductors and AI. 🌐 Global Trade War Several countries, including Brazil and Thailand, imposed fresh restrictions on Chinese imports, echoing the U.S. stance. Global supply chains remain fragmented. Outlook 🔮: Trade blocs like the EU and Mercosur may take on greater importance as countries hedge against rising protectionism. Trump vs. Powell Fed Chair Powell resisted political pressure, stating rate cuts are unlikely before September. Trump called him “stubborn” and demanded immediate easing. Outlook 🔮: The Fed’s independence is under strain. If Trump wins re-election, major policy shifts could follow. 📈 U.S. Inflation Despite tariffs, core inflation remains elevated. Powell warned of persistent price pressures. Trump insists the Fed should cut rates to boost growth. Outlook 🔮: A rate cut later in 2025 is possible—if labor market data weakens. Until then, inflation will remain politically explosive. ## Technical View 📐📈 **Current Market Context:** Gold plummeted to $3,273.67 USD/t.oz on June 27, 2025, marking a 1.65% drop from the previous day, which confirms the strong bearish momentum. The price action shows a significant retreat from recent highs around $3,400. **ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Methodology Analysis:** * **Market Structure:** The trend is clearly bearish, with a definitive break of structure (BOS) to the downside. * **Order Blocks:** Several bearish order blocks have been identified at prior resistance levels, specifically in the $3,380-$3,400 range. * **Fair Value Gaps (FVG):** The aggressive sell-off has created multiple imbalances, particularly in the $3,350-$3,320 range. * **Liquidity Pools:** Buy-side liquidity above $3,400 has been swept. Sell-side liquidity is now accumulating below the $3,270 lows, which is the current target zone. * **Session Analysis:** The London session showed aggressive selling, followed by a continuation of bearish momentum in the New York session. The Asia session could see consolidation or further declines. * **Smart Money Concepts:** Heavy selling pressure suggests "smart money" distribution. There's been strong bearish displacement from $3,380 down to $3,270, indicating the market is currently in a "sell program" phase. **Gann Analysis:** * **Gann Angles & Time Cycles:** The primary 1x1 Gann angle has been broken, pointing to continued weakness. Key price squares indicate resistance at $3,375 (25²) and support at $3,249 (57²). Daily cycles suggest a potential turning point around June 30-July 1, while weekly cycles indicate continued pressure through early July. * **Gann Levels:** * Resistance: $3,375, $3,400, $3,481 (59²) * Support: $3,249, $3,136, $3,025 **Fibonacci Analysis:** * **Key Retracement Levels (from recent swing high to low):** * 78.6%: $3,378 (Strong resistance) * 61.8%: $3,348 (Key resistance zone) * 50.0%: $3,325 (Psychological level) * 38.2%: $3,302 (Minor resistance) * 23.6%: $3,285 (Current area of interest) * **Fibonacci Extensions (Downside Targets):** * 127.2%: $3,245 * 161.8%: $3,195 * 261.8%: $3,095 * **Time-Based Fibonacci:** The next significant time cluster is July 2-3, 2025, with a major cycle completion expected around July 15-17, 2025. **Institutional Levels & Volume Analysis:** * **Key Institutional Levels:** * Major Resistance: $3,400 (psychological + institutional) * Secondary Resistance: $3,350-$3,375 (order block cluster) * Primary Support: $3,250-$3,270 (institutional accumulation zone) * Major Support: $3,200 (monthly pivot area) * **Volume Profile Analysis:** * High Volume Node (HVN): $3,320-$3,340 (fair value area) * Low Volume Node (LVN): $3,280-$3,300 (potential acceleration zone) * Point of Control (POC): Currently around $3,330 **Central Bank & Hedge Fund Levels:** Based on recent COT data and institutional positioning, heavy resistance is seen at $3,400-$3,430, where institutions likely distributed. An accumulation zone for "smart money" re-entry is anticipated at $3,200-$3,250. **Cycle Timing Analysis:** * **Short-Term Cycles (Intraday):** Bearish momentum is expected to continue for another 12-18 hours. A daily cycle low is likely between June 29-30, with a potential reversal zone on July 1-2 for the 3-day cycle. * **Medium-Term Cycles:** The current weekly cycle is in week 3 of a 4-week decline. The monthly cycle indicates a mid-cycle correction within a larger uptrend. For the quarterly cycle, Q3 2025 could see a major low formation. * **Seasonal Patterns:** July-August is typically a weaker period for gold ("Summer Doldrums"). September has historically been strong for precious metals ("September Effect"), setting up for a potential major move higher in Q4 2025 ("Year-End Rally"). **Trading Strategy & Levels:** * **Bearish Scenario (Primary):** * Entry: Sell rallies into the $3,320-$3,350 resistance zone. * Targets: $3,250, $3,200, $3,150. * Stop Loss: Above $3,380. * **Bullish Scenario (Secondary):** * Entry: Buy support at $3,250-$3,270 with confirmation. * Targets: $3,320, $3,375, $3,400. * Stop Loss: Below $3,230. **Key Events to Watch:** * **US PCE Data:** Fresh downside risks could emerge ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data release. * **Fed Communications:** Any hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could further pressure gold. * **Geopolitical Developments:** Ongoing global events could trigger safe-haven demand. **Conclusion:** The technical picture for gold suggests continued short-term weakness, with the metal testing its 2025 trend line at $3,290 following last week's rejection at the $3,430 resistance. However, the longer-term outlook remains constructive, given gold's robust performance year-to-date. Key support at $3,250-$3,270 will be crucial in determining the next significant price movement. **Upcoming Week's Economic Calendar (June 29 - July 4, 2025):** 🗓️🌍 🗓️ Get ready for these important economic events (EDT) * ** Sunday , June 29, 2025** * 21:30 CNY: Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 49.6, Previous: 49.5 * ** Monday , June 30, 2025** * 09:45 USD: Chicago PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 42.7, Previous: 40.5 * ** Tuesday , July 1, 2025** * 05:00 EUR: CPI (YoY) (Jun) - Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 1.9% * 09:30 USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks * 09:45 USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 52.0, Previous: 52.0 * 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 48.8, Previous: 48.5 * 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 70.2, Previous: 69.4 * 10:00 USD: JOLTS Job Openings (May) - Forecast: 7.450M, Previous: 7.391M * ** Wednesday , July 2, 2025** * 08:15 USD: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) - Forecast: 80K, Previous: 37K * 10:30 USD: Crude Oil Inventories - Forecast: -5.836M * ** Thursday , July 3, 2025** * Holiday: United States - Independence Day (Early close at 13:00) 🇺🇸⏰ * 08:30 USD: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) - Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4% * 08:30 USD: Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast: 239K, Previous: 236K * 08:30 USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) - Forecast: 129K, Previous: 139K * 08:30 USD: Unemployment Rate (Jun) - Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.2% * 09:45 USD: S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 53.1, Previous: 53.1 * 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 50.3, Previous: 49.9 * 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 68.7 * ** Friday , July 4, 2025** * All Day: Holiday - United States - Independence Day 🎆 **Gold Price Forecast for the Coming Week** 🔮💰 Given last week's market movements, there's a strong likelihood that the downward trend in gold prices will continue.🔽 However, fresh news can always flip the script! 🔄 As of now, I expect gold to dip further to $3255 by mid-next week. Yet, a brief rebound towards $3300 isn't out of the question before a potential drop to $3200 by week's end or early the following week. 🤞 Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by Wick-Sniper
GOLD UPCOMING WEEK ANALYSIS/SET UP On the M5 timeframe, a confirmed candle closure above 3283 would signal a shift toward short-term bullish momentum. In this scenario, the market is likely to attract buyers looking to capitalize on upward continuation. A logical strategy would be to wait for a pullback toward the 3264 or 3278 zone all depending upon price action ie swing lows, It's important to maintain a tight stop loss just below the pullback low, as the expected targets in this bullish leg are first 3291, followed by the psychological level of 3300. These levels may offer minor resistance, and partial profit-taking around them could be considered. If buying pressure remains strong and the price closes decisively above 3303, this would confirm a continuation of bullish intent. At that point, the market is likely to push toward the unmitigated supply zone marked on the chart. This zone has not been fully tested and may act as a key inflection point where institutional selling could re-enter the market. we should watch price behavior closely in this area, as signs of rejection—such as a bearish engulfing candle or a failure to hold above 3323—would suggest exhaustion of bullish momentum. If the market fails to hold above 3323 and instead closes below it, this would shift the bias to bearish. Such a rejection would present a high-probability sell opportunity, with the expectation of a move back toward this week’s low. This bearish move would likely be driven by a combination of profit-taking and reactivation of supply from the unmitigated zone, aligning well with smart money principles targeting liquidity beneath recent lows. Note: Only for educational purpose not a financial advice
TVC:GOLD
by Awii_Khan
Gold Prices Retreat, Short-term Bearish Trend PrevailsOn Friday, gold prices rebounded to $3,328 at the start of Asian trading but were resisted, followed by a sustained decline. Influenced by the U.S. May PCE price index data during the U.S. session, prices hit a low of $3,255 and closed at around $3,274, forming a large bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow on the daily chart. Influencing Factors: Optimistic expectations on trade agreements boosted market risk appetite, weakening gold's safe-haven appeal. Technical Analysis: - Daily chart: Gold has broken below the 5-day moving average, with short-term moving averages in a bearish arrangement. - 4-hour chart: The Bollinger Bands have widened, and prices are trending lower along the lower band. The key resistance level at $3,310 is critical—failure to reclaim this level may intensify short-term selling pressure. Outlook for Next Week: Events such as the global central bank governors' meeting, non-farm payroll data release, and discussions on Powell's potential resignation will disrupt the market. Gold is expected to fluctuate sharply around $3,270, with caution advised for a secondary bottoming. Comprehensive Judgment: The bearish probability is high: - Upper Resistance: Focus on the $3,310–$3,300 range, a key bull-bear dividing line. A breakthrough here could reverse the trend. - Lower Support: Watch the $3,250 level—breaking below it may open further downside. Indicator Signals: - MACD: Bearish crossover below the zero line with expanding green bars, indicating accelerating downward momentum. - RSI: At 39 in the oversold zone, showing potential for a short-term bottom, but bearish momentum remains dominant. XAUUSD sell@3290~3280 sl:3310 tp：3260~3250 I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by H_C_02
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – July 1 to July 5, 2025Gold is will consolidating below broken trendline resistance and trading inside a short-term bearish channel. A critical support zone lies ahead, while bulls may try to reclaim lost ground. Here's the structured outlook: Key Levels: 🔺 Resistance: R1: 3297 – 23.6% Fib level + Trendline confluence zone R2: 3325 – 3337 – Strong structural zone + previous highs 🔻 Support: S1: 3252 – Recent swing low (Fib 0%) S2: 3203 – Psychological and structural level S3: 3125 – 3165 – Weekly support area 🧠 Bias Scenarios: ✅ Bullish Scenario: If bulls reclaim above 3297 (R1) and sustain: Potential push toward R2: 3325–3337. Watch for bullish breakout from the falling channel. Targets will expand if price holds above the green long-term trendline. ❌ Bearish Scenario: If gold fails to break and hold above the green trendline and 3297, expect: Continuation inside the falling channel. Bearish push toward S1: 3252, and if broken, slide toward S2: 3203 and even S3: 3125–3165. Technical Signals: Price respecting Fibonacci retracement zones. Bearish channel still intact, awaiting breakout confirmation. Volume shows bearish pressure near resistance zones. Weekly support could act as a demand base if market sentiment shifts. Summary for Next Week: ⚠️ Watch how price reacts around 3297 and the trendline. Rejection will likely open the path to lower supports. A breakout above resistance with volume can switch momentum bullish again. Note: Stay cautious with macroeconomic events or USD strength-related catalysts.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mimamunmd
EUR/USD Technical Analysis | Multi-timeframe – 30M, 1H, 4H, 1D🟦 EUR/USD Technical Analysis – Key Zones to Watch for Potential Breakout or Rejection 📅 Date Published: June 28, 2025 📊 Ticker: EURUSD 🔍 Analysis Type: Multi-timeframe – 30M, 1H, 4H, 1D --- 🔹 1. Market Overview: Current Price: 1.17185 (+0.14%) Short-term Bias: Neutral to Slightly Bullish – The pair is consolidating near recent highs, hinting at potential breakout volatility. Volume Profile: 30M-1H: Lower but rising into resistance zones 4H: ~29.46K 1D: Strong support volume at ~177.53K --- 🔸 2. Key Technical Zones: 🔹 Order Blocks & Fair Value Gaps (FVG): 🟢 Buy Order Block / Demand Zone: 1.16500 – 1.17000 (Identified on 4H and 1D charts; strong institutional buying interest) 🔴 Sell Order Block / Supply Zone: 1.18000 – 1.18500 (Key 4H/1D resistance area; previous rejections noted) 📉 FVG – Buy Side: 1.17142 – 1.17228 (On 30M and 1H charts – potential entry zone for scalpers or intraday buyers) 📈 FVG – Sell Side: 1.17500 – 1.17800 (Visible on 30M – watch for exhaustion or false breakouts) --- 🧱 3. Support & Resistance Matrix: Timeframe Support Levels Resistance Levels 30M 1.17000 1.17500 1H 1.16800 1.18000 4H 1.16500 1.18500 1D 1.16000 (Major Volume) 1.20000 (Psychological) --- 🛠 4. Potential Trade Setups: ✅ Bullish Setup (Intraday Long): Entry: 1.17142 (FVG + Demand zone confluence) Stop Loss: 1.16900 (Below recent swing low & order block) Take Profit Zone: 1.17800 – 1.18000 Risk/Reward: ~1:2+ ❌ Bearish Setup (Intraday Short): Entry: 1.17500 – 1.17800 (Into supply and FVG zone) Stop Loss: 1.18100 (Above key resistance) Take Profit Zone: 1.17000 – 1.16800 Risk/Reward: ~1:2 --- 🧭 5. Key Trade Triggers: 🟢 Bullish Breakout Signal: Clean break + retest of 1.17500 with bullish volume can propel price towards 1.18000 – 1.18500. 🔴 Bearish Breakdown Signal: Loss of 1.17000 support exposes price to 1.16500, and potentially 1.16000 (Daily major support with high volume). --- 📌 6. Final Verdict: This is a range-to-breakout market. Scalp/Intraday Traders: Consider buying dips near 1.17142 if price respects order block. Watch for rejection candles at 1.17500 – 1.17800 to fade into resistance. Swing Traders: Monitor a confirmed daily breakout above 1.18000 for bullish continuation toward 1.18500–1.20000. Watch for a sustained move below 1.16500 for a broader trend shift toward 1.16000 or lower. --- 🔔 Trade Smart – Manage Risk: Risk only 1-2% of your capital per trade. Avoid emotional entries. Watch for price action confirmation near key zones. --- 💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments. Are you leaning bullish or bearish on EUR/USD this week?
FX:XAUUSD
by Advmawais1
Silver-The Next Gold?The precious metals market is abuzz with a compelling question: Is silver poised to become the next gold? As gold continues its record-breaking ascent, investors and analysts are turning their attention to silver, which has demonstrated remarkable performance and potential in 2025. Let’s dive into the factors driving silver’s price, expert forecasts, and what the future may hold for this dynamic metal. Silver’s 2025 Surge: Outpacing Expectations Silver prices have surged impressively in 2025, recently trading above $34 per ounce—a 14% year-to-date increase that outpaces many other commodities. This rally is not just a speculative spike; it’s underpinned by robust fundamentals, including: Gold’s record run, which historically pulls silver prices higher due to their strong correlation Persistent supply deficits, with 2025 marking the fifth consecutive year of market shortfall Soaring industrial demand, especially from the green technology and electronics sectors Renewed safe-haven buying amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties #commodity #silver #gold #xau #metals #finance #market #trading #portfolio #analysis
CAPITALCOM:SILVER
by signalgo
XAUUSD Breakdown: Daily Support Under Fire – Bearish MomentumGold (XAUUSD) is pressing deep into key daily support around $3,275 after a sharp drop from the $3,450s. The daily trendline that’s defined this bullish run since January is now being tested for the first time in months, signaling a possible structural shift. On the Daily chart, price has decisively broken below the mid-range of the recent consolidation box and is holding near trendline support. On the 4H and 1H, bearish impulsive waves have formed clear lower highs and lower lows, with the current move stalling at the support zone around $3,265–$3,275. The 23M chart shows tight consolidation just above this support area, suggesting a potential breakdown if sellers stay in control. 📌 If this level gives way, watch for price to move quickly toward the next major support near $3,150–$3,200. Bulls must reclaim $3,300+ and break above the descending trendline to flip the bias back to bullish. 🚨 Current Bias: Bearish below $3,300; watching for confirmation of breakdown or strong reversal signals.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by AutoMarkets
Brent Oil – Bearish Break or Bounce from Long-Term Support?Brent Oil is hovering just above critical support near 66.00, with a clear bearish structure visible across timeframes: 🔎 15m & 1h: Price action is consolidating near the ascending support trendline drawn from early June lows. Short-term price structure shows lower highs and lower lows, suggesting continued downside pressure. 📉 4h & 1D: The recent sell-off from above 78.00 has pushed Brent back into the lower region of the broad descending channel. Daily and 4h charts show price testing confluence between the horizontal support at ~66.00 and a long-term rising trendline. A confirmed close below this level could accelerate bearish momentum towards 64.00 or even 62.00. ⚠️ Key Levels: • Support: 66.00, 64.00, 62.00 • Resistance: 67.00, 69.00 • Bias: Bearish – price remains in a clear downtrend unless buyers reclaim above 67.50 with strong volume. 📌 Outlook: As long as Brent holds below 67.00 and the descending trendline caps rallies, my bias is bearish. A breakdown of 66.00 on higher timeframes would open the door for a move towards lower channel support levels. However, if buyers defend and push back above 67.50, we could see a short-term relief rally.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENTShort
by AutoMarkets
FX quarter end : a high-probability recurring patternAs we approach the end of June, a well-known phenomenon among FX traders is once again coming into focus: when currencies have diverged significantly over the course of a month or quarter, we often see a technical correction into the final trading session, with partial pullbacks in the pairs that had previously moved the most. This end-of-month or quarter pattern is not random. It is the predictable result of recurring institutional flows. Recently, the US dollar has notably weakened against most major currencies. As a result, we could anticipate a modest bounce in the dollar to close out the month and start the new week, as various participants are likely to adjust their positions accordingly. Performance of FX futures contracts from Sunday, June 1 to Friday, June 27: Swiss Franc +3.71% Euro +3.61% British Pound +1.95% New Zealand Dollar +1.58% Australian Dollar +1.50% Canadian Dollar +0.67% Japanese Yen +0.16% Performance of FX futures contracts from Tuesday, April 1 to Friday, June 27: Swiss Franc +10.73% Euro +8.40% New Zealand Dollar +6.90% British Pound +6.26% Canadian Dollar +5.23% Australian Dollar +4.80% Japanese Yen +3.68% These figures illustrate a broad-based decline in the dollar during June and over the entire second quarter. Historically, such imbalances open the door to late-stage adjustments, with currencies that have risen sharply often seeing modest technical pullbacks. This is a setup closely monitored by FX traders, who view it as a high-probability opportunity based on a pattern that is rare, but remarkably consistent. FX rebalancing: mechanics and market players At the heart of these adjustments lies one key concept: rebalancing. This is the process by which institutional players, pension funds, insurers, central banks, passive managers, bond funds, corporates adjust their FX exposures to stay in line with the targets defined in their mandates. Every month, the value of their assets (equities, bonds, alternatives) and currency holdings fluctuate. If a currency appreciates sharply, its weight in the portfolio may become too high. Conversely, if a currency weakens, exposure might fall below target. Rebalancing involves buying or selling FX to return to those target allocations. This process is recurring, predictable, and usually concentrated in a narrow window, the final hours of the trading month, just before the London 4pm fix. Quarter-ends tend to be even more pronounced, as many investors revisit long-term strategic allocations at that time. Many of these adjustments are driven by systematic models using fixed thresholds, which adds to the consistency and timing of these flows. Ideal setup: low volatility, high impact June 2025 ends in a particularly calm environment: equity markets are stable or even rising, and the VIX is trading near its yearly lows, signs of a quiet and balanced market that favors more technical trading. This context is favorable for strategies aiming to take advantage of rebalancing effects, as in the absence of new announcements or unexpected events, these adjustments are likely to have a tangible impact on prices. Conversely, in a more volatile market environment, such adjustments could be drowned out by larger flows (such as a flight to quality), thus having a reduced or even negligible impact. FX options: another layer of flows Another important factor on Monday, June 30: a large number of FX options expire at 10am New York (3pm London). These expiries cover several major pairs, with significant notional amounts concentrated near current spot levels. According to what is currently being whispered on trading desk chat rooms, we expect the following large expiries: EUR/USD: €3.0bn at 1.1650 (below spot) USD/JPY: $1.6bn at 145.50 (above spot) USD/CHF: $1.8bn at 0.8000 (above spot) GBP/USD: £1.0bn at 1.3600 (below spot) AUD/USD: A$1.1bn at 0.6425 (below spot) When spot approaches these strikes, option holders or sellers may intervene to "pin" prices, based on their delta exposure. This behavior can amplify technical price movements in the hours before expiration. When these heavy expirations align with month/quarter end rebalancing flows in a quiet, low-volatility market, it creates a strong potential cocktail for tactical moves, conducive to a dollar rebound into the fix. How to trade the pattern effectively Here’s a simplified roadmap to navigate this recurring pattern: Identify monthly or quarterly extremes: look for the currencies that gained or lost the most over the period; Assess the market environment: a low VIX, no major data or central bank events, meaningful trends, and significant options expiries are ideal conditions; Use liquid and transparent instruments: Sep 2025 FX futures (standard, e-mini or micro) are currently the most suitable products for active positioning Set realistic expectations: aim for a 0.5% to 1.0% pullback, not a full-blown trend reversal Manage risk properly: as with any strategy, always use a stop-loss. This is quantitative trading, not fortune-telling. If the USD continues to weaken despite the setup, be ready to exit swiftly. In short... Quarter/month end FX rebalancing is one of the few market events where anticipated institutional flows can create repeatable, high-probability trading opportunities. These flows stem from real portfolio needs and systematic re-hedging, and are often amplified by option expiries and technical positioning. This setup provides a great educational case study for any trader seeking to better understand hidden FX dynamics. There’s no secret indicator or crystal ball here, just a solid grasp of structural flows and timing. From a personal standpoint, after over 20 years trading currencies, this strategy remains one of my favorites: simple, effective, and highly instructive. I encourage you to study it closely, and observe its behavior during upcoming month-end windows. --- When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/ . This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6E1!Education
by satelysfx