XAUMO REPORT: Monday, June 30, 2025
⚔️ XAUUSD Daily Institutional Analysis
Monday, June 30, 2025
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1️⃣ Price Structure & Context
Current Market Snapshot:
• Daily Close (June 28): 3,273.40
• Key Technical Breaks:
• Closed decisively below the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement (3,288)
• Breached and retested the Value Area Low (VAL) at 3,285.91
• Clear rejection of the 0.618 retracement (3,316)
• Now sitting just above the final liquidity shelf around 3,250.
Structural Interpretation:
• This marks the final stage of distribution, transitioning into a momentum-driven decline.
• Lower Highs: 3,500 > 3,420 > 3,390 > 3,330
• Lower Lows: 3,273 is the weakest daily close in 6 weeks.
• Repeated failure to reclaim even modest retracements signals strong bearish acceptance.
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2️⃣ Volume Profile & Footprint
Volume Clusters:
• POC: 3,320.39 (major supply concentration)
• VAH: 3,396.23 (untested for weeks)
• VAL: 3,285.91 (broken and retested)
Footprint Analysis:
• Persistent negative delta below 3,300 (heavy hitting into bids)
• Friday’s volume: 544K vs. 486K average, confirming conviction
• No evidence of absorption or meaningful buying at the lows
Institutional Interpretation:
• 3,320–3,330: Active institutional sell zone
• 3,285–3,250: Dense stop clusters from trapped longs
• A clean break below 3,250 likely triggers a vacuum flush toward 3,200–3,180
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3️⃣ Trend & Momentum
• Daily Trend: Steepening bearish slope
• Weekly Trend: Ongoing Wave 3 breakdown
• Momentum Indicators:
• RSI: Sub-45 (bearish bias)
• ATR: Expanding (increased volatility)
• Failed retracements reinforce selling pressure
Conclusion:
Momentum remains decisively bearish, accelerating into illiquid conditions.
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4️⃣ Wave & Fibonacci Confluence
Measured Extension Targets:
• 1.0 Extension: ~3,258
• 1.272 Extension: ~3,220
• 1.618 Extension: ~3,180
Interpretation:
• Primary Target: 3,258–3,250
• Extended Target (if liquidity collapses): 3,180
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5️⃣ Liquidity & July 4th Market Closure
Schedule:
• Monday, June 30: Full liquidity
• Tuesday–Wednesday: Gradual volume decline
• Thursday, July 3: Early closes, pre-holiday squaring
• Friday, July 4: NY COMEX & CME Globex metals closed
• Monday, July 7: Liquidity resumes
Tactical Impact:
• Monday is the only fully liquid session for reliable positioning.
• Mid-week thin liquidity is highly prone to false rallies and stop hunts.
• Real directional moves typically return after the holiday closure.
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6️⃣ Stop Hunt & Liquidity Pools
Above Price:
• 3,316–3,330: Clustered short stops above failed retracement
• 3,350: Minor breakout stops
Below Price:
• 3,250–3,240: Dense stop pockets from dip buyers
• Under 3,240: Limited liquidity down to ~3,200–3,180
Institutional Playbook:
• Monday–Tuesday: Potential tactical squeeze up to 3,316–3,330 to trigger stops.
• Post-sweep fade back to 3,260–3,250.
• Friday likely muted due to closure.
• Monday, July 7: High-probability directional expansion.
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7️⃣ Monday, June 30 – Precise Daily Trading Playbook
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🎯 Scenario A – Reversion Rally into Supply
Setup:
• Price rallies into 3,316–3,330 during London–NY overlap.
• Footprint shows negative delta reappearing.
Execution:
• Entry: Sell limit 3,320–3,325
• Stop: 3,355
• Target 1: 3,260
• Target 2: 3,220–3,200
• Confidence: 70%
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🎯 Scenario B – Direct Breakdown
Setup:
• Price fails to reclaim 3,288
• 1-hour close below 3,250 on expanding volume
Execution:
• Entry: Sell stop 3,248
• Stop: 3,300
• Target 1: 3,200
• Target 2: 3,180
• Confidence: 85%
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🎯 Scenario C – Dead Range Pre-Holiday
Setup:
• Price consolidates between 3,270–3,290
• Volume collapses below 300K
Execution:
• No trade – stand aside until liquidity returns
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8️⃣ Hypothetical Institutional Trade Setup
• Order Type: Sell Stop
• Trigger: 1-hour close under 3,250 on 2x normal volume
• Entry: 3,248
• Stop: 3,300
• Target: 3,200
• Position Size: 0.75–1% account risk
• Probability: 85%
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9️⃣ Executive Summary
✅ Trend: Dominant bearish
✅ Momentum: Accelerating downwards
✅ Liquidity: Normal Monday, low mid-week, reactivating post-holiday
✅ Institutional Bias: Sell rallies and exploit stops under 3,250
✅ Psychology:
• Retail FOMO on rallies above 3,316
• Panic if 3,250 breaks
✅ Key Dates:
• Monday: Execution window
• Mid-week: Thin liquidity, false moves
• Friday: Market closure
• Monday, July 7: Expected main move
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⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is hypothetical and educational. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions.
