XAUUSD H4 Structure – Eyes on 3225 POI for Possible ContinuationXAUUSD has been in a structured 4H pullback, and price is now approaching a key high-timeframe zone around 3225 — marked by prior CHoCH and unmitigated price action. This level has the potential to act as a base for bullish continuation, but I will only act based on lower timeframe structure.
The trap for most traders is entering too early just because price hits a level.
My approach is different — I wait for the market to tell me when it’s ready.
🔍 The Flow I Follow (As Always):
HTF Context – Price is pulling back within a broader bullish range
POI Identified – 3225 zone = key area of interest
Wait for LTF Shift – I’ll only consider a trade if:
- M15 shows CHoCH (shift in internal structure)
- Followed by a BOS (momentum confirmation)
Then, and only then, I enter. Otherwise, I let it go.
🧠 Why This Matters:
This structure-first mindset keeps me out of random trades.
I don’t predict — I align.
No M15 shift?
No BOS?
No trade.
📊 Chart Context:
The chart attached shows:
Previous CHoCH levels
Recent BOS confirming internal structure break
Cleanly marked POI around 3225
Still no valid LTF shift — so it’s a “watch, not trade” phase
📖 From the Book Philosophy:
“The chart is the mirror. It reflects your level of patience, not your level of prediction.”
This setup reflects exactly what I teach in my book The Chart Is The Mirror — how to stop reacting to candles and start respecting structure.
No signals.
No indicators.
Just clean alignment of levels and psychology.
Futures market
Falling Wedge: The Bullish Pattern Most Traders Miss Falling Wedge: The Bullish Pattern Most Traders Miss
A falling wedge is a bullish pattern that forms when price action contracts between two downward-sloping lines. Both highs and lows are getting lower, but the lower trendline declines more slowly. This shows that sellers are losing momentum.
There are two types of falling wedges:
🟢In an uptrend, it acts as a continuation pattern. The price pauses and consolidates before breaking out upward again.
🔴In a downtrend, it acts as a reversal pattern, often signaling a bottom before a trend change.
Both versions look similar on the chart — a narrowing wedge sloping down. The breakout usually happens to the upside. To trade it 👇
1️⃣Wait for a confirmed breakout above the upper resistance line.
2️⃣Look for strong volume on the breakout to confirm the move.
3️⃣You can enter on the breakout or wait for a retest of the trendline.
4️⃣Place your stop below the recent low.
5️⃣Set a target based on the height of the wedge.
Falling wedges work best in strong trends and become more reliable the longer they form ✍️
#FAQ
SILVER XAGUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS HIGHER TIME FRAME Macro and Geopolitical Drivers: Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could drive safe-haven demand for silver, though recent profit-taking amid such tensions indicates mixed trader sentiment. U.S. economic data releases, including consumer sentiment and Federal Reserve commentary, may impact expectations for interest rate cuts, which typically support precious metals. A stronger U.S. dollar or higher Treasury yields could pressure silver prices downward.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: Silver’s ongoing supply deficit (projected at 149 million ounces in 2025) and strong industrial demand from solar, electric vehicles, and electronics continue to support a bullish outlook. However, potential tariff impacts from U.S. policy under President Trump could dampen industrial demand, introducing volatility.
Weekly Outlook: Silver’s price action may oscillate between $34.176 (support) and $37.47009 (resistance) this week. Bullish momentum from supply deficits and industrial demand could push prices toward the resistance, but overbought signals (e.g., Stochastic Oscillator near 90) and potential short-selling pressure in COMEX futures might lead to consolidation or a pullback to support. Key drivers to watch include U.S. economic data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical developments.
Critical Note: The $37.47009 resistance may be tough to breach without significant catalysts, and large short positions could trigger volatility.
#silver
Gift Nifty bullishNSEIX:NIFTY1!
We are already bullish in Gift Nifty, in the analysis of which it was bought from 24930. Now the current market price of 25728 is near the previous resistance point 25856, which can become a profit book point, but the close of 26082 again gives bullishness to the market,
Otherwise, according to the report, buy support is again seen at 25350, which can be traded with a close stoploss of 25130.
Bearish market near bottom expecting bullish reversal soonWe are currently in a bearish structure until the price breaks above 3300.
Until then, we can look for sell opportunities around the key levels of 3281, 3290, and 3300.
Downside targets are in the range of 3255 to 3235,
which also align with the 1-hour timeframe bullish order blocks.
From this higher timeframe bullish order block zone,
we may also see a potential bullish reversal.
Additionally, a countertrend scalp buy entry is possible around 3264–3267,
with upside targets at 3281, 3290, and 3300.
Gold – Can It Recover From 3 Week LowsGold is back in focus this morning after it fell to a 3 week low at 3287 in early European trading.
Part of the reason for the fall may have been the on-going ceasefire agreement holding between Israel and Iran, which can reduce the need for Gold as a safe haven, or prices may have been influenced by comments from US Commerce Secretary Lutnick made to Bloomberg TV overnight which suggested that the Trump administration have plans to reach agreements with a set of 10 major trading partners ahead of the July 9th pause deadline to reinstate higher tariffs.
Of course, these potential Gold negatives need to be balanced against the potential positives of increased optimism in recent days that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by more than expected into the end of 2025 as the US economy stalls, and the US dollar printing a fresh 3 year low yesterday.
Looking forward, the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Index at 1330 BST later today could hold the key to whether Gold falls below support to even lower levels (see technical section below) or moves back higher again into Friday’s close.
Whatever the outcome, its setting up for an interesting end of the week for Gold.
Technical Update:
With selling pressure developing in Gold again so far this morning, traders might well be searching for next support levels that may be successful in limiting current price declines, or if broken, could in turn lead to a more extended phase of weakness.
Much will depend on future price trends and market sentiment, but as the chart above shows, latest price activity is this morning posting new 3-week lows for Gold. This suggests traders might now be focused on 3245, equal to the last correction low in price posted on May 29th as the next possible support level.
While not a guarantee of further declines if broken, 3245 closing breaks could lead to further price weakness towards 3120, the May 15th downside extreme.
Of course, it is possible this 3245 low does continue to act as support to price weakness and may turn activity higher again. However, if this is to lead to a more sustained period of price strength, resistance might now stand at 3356.
Equal to the Bollinger mid-average, closing breaks might be required to suggest possibilities to resume price strength back towards the 3435/3452 May 6th and June 16th price failure highs.
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Gold (XAU/USD) Bearish Trade Setup – June 27, 2025Entry Point: Around 3,300.98 USD
Stop Loss (SL): ~3,312.20 USD
Take Profit (TP): 3,229.33 USD
Current Price: 3,286.15 USD
Risk-Reward Ratio: ~1:6.3
(Potential reward ≈ 71.65 pts; risk ≈ 11.22 pts)
Technical Breakdown:
Trend:
The price is in a short-term downtrend, supported by:
Lower highs and lower lows.
Price trading below both 50 EMA (red) and 200 EMA (blue), confirming bearish momentum.
Bearish Breakout:
Price broke below a key support-turned-resistance zone near 3,300–3,302, triggering sell pressure.
Resistance Area:
Strong rejection at 3,302–3,312 zone, which is now acting as resistance.
SL is placed just above this zone to protect against false breakouts.
Target Zone:
TP set at 3,229.33, aligning with a previous support zone — a logical area for price to react.
Strategy Notes:
Bias: Bearish
Entry confirmation: Already triggered.
Risk Management: SL placement is tight and strategic; RR ratio is highly favorable.
Next support below TP: If 3,229 breaks, further downside could follow.
Summary:
This setup shows a well-defined bearish continuation with a clean break of support, a controlled SL above resistance, and a strong RR ratio. A suitable trade for trend-following strategies, but price must not retrace above 3,312 for this idea to remain valid.
GOLD 4H: not all that glitters is bullish...The 4H chart shows a clean descending triangle breakdown. Price failed to reclaim the trendline and was rejected under both MA50 and MA200. The bounce into 3325–3340 was absorbed — classic liquidity sweep and fade. Volume confirms bearish control.
Technically, the breakdown below 3320 opens the way toward $3293 (1.0 Fibo), $3250 (1.272 extension), and final target at $3195 (1.618), where buyers might step in. RSI supports the continuation without signs of reversal. Structure broke — and the market is telling us where it's heading.
Tactical plan:
— Entry at market or on a retest of $3325–3335
— Targets: $3293 → $3250 → $3195
— Stop: above $3340 (above MA50 and broken trendline)
When gold looks shiny, smart traders look deeper. This breakout isn’t golden — it’s a trap for late bulls.
XAUUSD Market Roadmap (June 30 – July 4, 2025)XAUUSD Market Roadmap (June 30 – July 4, 2025)
Currently, XAUUSD is showing a rejection at the 3261 demand zone, signaling a potential short-term pullback. As long as the price remains above the 3241 demand level, there is a possibility of testing the 3289 supply zone. However, if sellers re-enter from that area, the market may resume its decline toward the next demand target at 3225.
Key Levels:
Demand (current rejection zone): 3261
Demand (critical support): 3241
Supply (resistance target): 3289
Next downside target: 3225
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Always conduct your own analysis and apply proper risk management before making any trading decisions.
XAUUSD - Smart Money Bearish Swing SetupMarket Structure Analysis
Break of Structure (BoS) confirms shift from bullish to bearish trend
Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) taken out above recent swing high
Market Structure Shift (MSS) confirms bearish order flow dominance
Entry Zone (Point of Interest)
Price broke below major MSS zone, confirming bearish bias
Currently reacting to Imbalance Zones (IBM) between 3306 – 3310
Lower IBM zone also acting as a potential retest area
Trade Plan
Look for bearish confirmation inside IBM zones (e.g., rejection candle, LTF BOS)
If confirmed, expecting price to target liquidity at 3248, then 3205
Ideal Stop Loss: above 3306 (IBM invalidation)
Key Price Levels
Resistance Zones : 3306 – 3310 (IBM)
Target 1: 3248
Target 2: 3205
Bias : Bearish until proven otherwise
Type : Swing Trade Setup
Disclaimer : For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
#XAUUSD #Gold #SMC #SmartMoneyConcepts #PriceAction #MarketStructure #LiquidityGrab #SwingTrade #TradingView #Forex
Gold strategy analysis for next week, hope it helps youThe current gold price stands at $3,273, showing a significant decline from previous levels. Looking back at Friday's trading, the gold market was in a state of "unrelenting decline": during the early Asian session, gold attempted a rebound, edging up to around $3,328, but was quickly met with resistance and pulled back. The downward trend continued into the European session, and with the release of the U.S. May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data during the U.S. session, gold prices fell further, hitting a low of around $3,355. Although there was a small rebound in recovery afterward, it eventually closed near $3,274, forming a large阴线 with a long lower shadow on the daily chart.
**Factors Influencing the Trend**
Market sentiment has reacted strongly to the optimistic agreements reached on trade-related matters, which has significantly boosted risk appetite. Simply put, when people feel the market environment is safe and there are plenty of profit opportunities, they are less willing to park their money in safe-haven assets like gold, thus greatly reducing gold’s appeal as a safe haven.
**Technical Analysis**
- **Daily Chart**: Gold has broken below the 5-day moving average, and short-term moving averages have formed a "bearish alignment"—it’s like a group of friends who were originally running in the same direction suddenly all turned around and started running downward.
- **4-Hour Chart**: The Bollinger Bands have widened, and gold prices are like being pushed by a force, moving steadily downward along the lower band. The previous top-bottom conversion level at around $3,310 is crucial. If gold fails to reclaim this level next week, it will be like losing an important position in a battle, which will intensify short-term selling pressure and make it highly likely that the downward trend continues.
**Outlook for Next Week**
The market will be bustling next week:
- Major central bank governors worldwide will hold a panel discussion, like a gathering of "financial giants" to discuss important matters. Their remarks and consensus may have a significant impact on the market.
- The non-farm payroll data, long known as a "heavyweight bomb" in financial markets, will also be released. It reflects the state of the U.S. job market, which is closely linked to the economy and monetary policy, so its release often triggers sharp market fluctuations.
- Additionally, talks about whether Powell will resign may continue to ferment next week, stirring up the market.
Affected by these major events, gold prices are expected to fluctuate more violently around the lower Bollinger Band at $3,270 per ounce next week, and there is a need to be cautious of a second dip.
**Comprehensive Judgment**
The gold market faces high uncertainty next week, but the probability of an overall bearish trend is relatively high:
- **Upper Resistance**: Pay attention to the $3,310–$3,300 range in the short term, a key boundary between bulls and bears. A breakthrough here could bring a turnaround for gold.
- **Lower Support**: Focus on the $3,250 level in the short term. A break below this level may open up further downside space.
From the indicator signals:
- The MACD double line is running below the zero axis, forming a death cross, and the green energy column is continuing to expand—like a car stepping on the gas, accelerating downward.
- The RSI is operating in the oversold region around 39. Although there is a possibility of a short-term bottom, it also faces a pullback correction. However, the bearish momentum currently holds the upper hand.
Gold strategy analysis for next week, hope it helps you
XAUUSD sell@3290~3280
SL:3310
TP:3370~3350
Finally strong weekly trendline brokeFinally strong weekly trendline broke
with the very lotsa uncertainty in the world news. gold has not been healthy in my opinion.
however finally we can see what its trying to do.
familiar with the last ATH during covid era.
gold return and respected ath area of 2070 and return to the key level of support 1681.
so now we can already see that the strong level of resistance is 3450 and it has identified 3125 as strong level of support.
so now we are in a strong down trend however we are at the level of double weekly breakout. that is why gold close rejection at 3256 as the key level.
so the question is for upcoming week where it will be heading. we should be able to witness a strong pull back as the last day of closing left gold with lotsa FVG above to be filled however,
we broke strong level of support 3290 which now place as first resistance. so, if this resistance is being respected hence it will continue downwards towards the support.
one possible scenario is gold could react from here to do the break of weekly trendline and as usual and break and retest.
so bias is bearish however the bull pullback is not to be missed as that's a good quality range.
GOLD DISTRIBUTION TYPEHello folks. its been a while I am posting. Been dealing with this idea last week.
wait for a rally to 3344, if it breaks above 3351 then we still waiting below our main Entry 3280-3289 zone. less stoploss below the friday low.
Trade it swing if we see monday rally. then wait our entry.
Goodluck and have fun trading,
If trading is a lifestyle this is it.
this is your lifestyle.
waiting here is boring.
thats why we need to be more patience.
xiaaaaooo.
XAUUSD sellW candle and D candle both support selling gold, in the small frame, it has created a bearish structure
_ Scenario 1: WAIT to SELL at the current price zone to the small frame to find an entry. If the price breaks through this resistance zone, you can WAIT to BUY back to supply
_ Scenario 2: wait for the price to return to supply WAIT to SELL
S&P500: Target Zone DeactivatedThe S&P 500 extended its bullish trend yesterday, moving beyond our now-deactivated (formerly magenta) Target Zone. Existing positions remain intact, as the stop set 1% above the upper boundary has not been triggered. In our updated primary scenario, we anticipate continued upward movement within magenta wave (B), potentially reaching the resistance at 6675 points. Once this peak is established, we expect a corrective decline to begin in the form of wave (C), which should guide the index into the green Long Target Zone between 4988 and 4763 points. There, the larger green wave is expected to complete. A sustained breakout above the 6675-point level would shift the outlook in favor of the alternative scenario. In that case, green wave alt. would be considered complete—a trajectory we currently assign a probability of 40%.
📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
NQ Holding Above Daily Highs – Trend Structure Intact📈 NASDAQ 100 (NQ) – Riding the Trend, Holding Above Key Daily Highs | 4H Chart
NQ remains in a strong uptrend, respecting structure and reclaiming key daily highs going into the final trading days of June.
🔍 Key Observations:
🔼 Price is currently holding above Thursday’s high: 22,740
✅ Strong support formed at Wednesday high: 22,693.25
🔁 Clean reclaim of Tuesday and Wednesday lows — confirming bullish pressure
🔸 Trendline from June 23 low continues to guide the rally
🗓️ Previous Day Levels Providing Structure:
SUN LO / MON LO (~21,550–21,650) → Base of the rally
JUNE 17–21: Price consolidated just below 22,400, forming resistance
JUNE 25: Breakout above Sun/Mon Highs confirmed expansion phase
🧠 Bias & Plan:
Bias: Bullish, as long as price remains above 22,693
🕵️♂️ Watch for reaction around 22,800–22,900 zone (potential exhaustion or continuation)
If we sweep Thursday’s high and shift structure → possible short-term pullback
📌 Summary:
NQ continues to honor the prior week’s highs as new support. The market is trending cleanly with structure, and as long as daily highs hold, the bullish case remains intact.
#NQ100 #NASDAQ #FuturesTrading #SmartMoney #MarketStructure #DailyLevels #PlaymakerTrades
XAU/USD (Gold) Breakout or Breakdown Setup – Key Decision ZoneThe Gold Spot (XAU/USD) price action is currently at a crucial inflection point after consolidating in a rising wedge pattern between ascending support and horizontal resistance. This type of structure typically indicates a strong directional breakout is likely, and the current daily candle shows a close below the ascending support, signaling a potential bearish breakdown confirmation.
🔽 Bearish Breakdown Scenario (Confirmed Below 3250)
If price sustains below the 3250 support breakdown level, it confirms a bearish breakdown from the wedge. The height of the wedge (distance between the base of the move and the resistance) is used to project the downside target, giving us key levels to monitor:
Breakdown Confirmation: Below 3250.00
Target 1: 3111.67
Target 2: 2990.31
Projected Downside Target: 2861.24
This move suggests that gold could enter a deeper correction if buyers fail to reclaim the ascending structure quickly.
🔼 Bullish Breakout Scenario (Above 3500)
On the flip side, if bulls manage to push price back above the 3500 level, it would invalidate the current bearish momentum and confirm a bullish breakout. The projected upside targets are based on the same measured move logic:
Breakout Confirmation: Above 3500.00
Target 1: 3621.90
Target 2: 3741.84
Projected Upside Target: 3855.78
A close above 3500 with volume would set the tone for a fresh rally toward new highs.
🧭 Strategy Outlook
Short Bias (active): Entry below 3250; SL above 3300; TP at 3110 / 2990 / 2860
Long Bias (if reversal): Entry above 3500; SL below 3460; TP at 3620 / 3740 / 3850
Always wait for a strong daily candle close beyond the breakout/breakdown levels before initiating any trades
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Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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How to Trade When Buy/Sell Alerts Conflict with Market StructureQuestion:
If we have a buy/sell alert and an opposing Market Structure, how can we tell which will prevail or is heavier?
Answer (VX Algo System perspective):
In the VX Algo system, both the alert signals (buy/sell) and the market structure are crucial, but they serve different roles:
Alerts are dynamic triggers based on price action, momentum, or specific algorithmic conditions. They indicate potential entry or exit points.
Market Structure reflects the broader trend and underlying order flow, indicating the prevailing direction of the market (e.g., higher highs and higher lows for bullish structure, or lower highs and lower lows for bearish structure).
When an alert contradicts the prevailing market structure, the heavier factor is usually the Market Structure because it represents the dominant order flow and sentiment. In other words, alerts give you tactical timing, but market structure provides strategic context.
How to tell which prevails:
Confirm with Market Structure: If the market structure is bullish (uptrend), a buy alert aligns with it and is more likely to succeed. A sell alert against that structure is a warning sign that the alert may be weaker or a potential false signal.
Volume and Momentum: Use volume or momentum indicators (built into VX Algo or complementary tools) to see if the alert has strength behind it. A strong sell alert with high volume during an uptrend may indicate an imminent structure shift.
Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Check if the opposing alert is supported or rejected on higher timeframes. A buy alert on a lower timeframe against a bearish higher timeframe structure is less likely to prevail.
Risk Management: If you trade against structure alerts, reduce position size and tighten stops until the structure confirms the shift.
Summary: Market structure is heavier and more reliable for directional bias. Alerts provide tactical entry timing. When they conflict, lean on structure for bias but watch for alert strength as early signals of possible structure changes.
06/27/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis 06/27/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis
EOD accountability report: +915
Sleep: 6 hours
Overall health: edgy from sleep
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 3/4 success**
9:37 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal :check:
9:55 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check:
10:31 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (double sell) iffy
1:43 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check:
**What’s are some news or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
**
Early on in the market, I noticed that there was heavy manipulate by the MM with violent buy and sell. This somewhat warns that today's market could be tough to trade and you have to be very patient.
News
PRES TRUMP: ENDING ALL TRADE TALKS WITH CANADA; WILL TELL CANADA ITS TARIFF LEVEL IN COMING DAYS - around 1 :40pm est
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6200= Bullish, Under 6185= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
XAUUSD - Breakdown: - RISK OFF - Gold Bears Part IV - Complete TVC:GOLD buyers got flushed all week 💥
Big Boy sells only.
Sometimes you’ve got to put your balls on the line and call it ahead — no hesitation.
New Ideas next week, Thank you and keep supporting!!
We did just that.
#Trump #DXY #Gold #XAUUSD #Dollar #Metals #CommodityTrading #KeepGoing #SmartMoneyMoves
Gold Trade Setup - 27/Jun/2025Hi Traders,
I expect this pair to go Up after finishing the correction.
1) Need to wait for market to show changing of the direction.
2) The current move can be just a part of a correction or an impulse in itself. Going to follow the market behavior at my zones.
How to Enter : Look for engulfing with in the SL zone.