Trade Review. Instead of going nuts and crazy looking for riding the trend, lets focus now on taking profits where we should and making it first. Trading Profit should have been at the resistance.
Futures market
PALLADIUM - Key zone to Watch for the Next MoveOANDA:XPDUSD is present in a key resistance zone, a level that has previously acted as a turning point for strong bearish reversals. The recent upward momentum leading into this zone increases the probability of heightened selling interest.
This could set the stage for a potential decline toward the 957.900 level. But If the resistance is decisively broken, it could mean further bullish advances, suggesting a continuation of the upward trend.
In other words, XPD/USD is at a critical point, with the resistance zone likely to determine the market's next direction.
-Price to watch 957.900,
-A breakout would indicate further bullish continuation.
Remain disciplined, wait for definitive confirmation before entering positions. This shows the importance of careful analysis and adherence to trading plans.
XAG_USD LONGSilver Price has been a Minor corrective downtrend afterwards followed a choppy consolidation in a symmetrical triangle and then broke out to the upside of which I decided to go long on price and as we can see price is moving well in my direction.
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 1/22/2025Gold has indeed broken the 2625 resistance as expected. I will buy from 2625 today and my first target is 2672.
Silver. Lower Low, Lower Highs. Posible break of down trend ? Silver is in an interesting situation. The last 4 months lower highs and Lower lows form.
There is very decent support at 28.500.
currently it look as if silver wants to break the downward going trend line. But we need confirmation of that.
I'm slightly bullish.
Gold Wave Analysis 21 January 2025
- Gold under bullish pressure
- Likely to rise to resistance level 2785.00
Gold under the bullish pressure after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 2710.00, which has been steadily reversing the price from November.
The breakout of the resistance level 2710.00 accelerated the active impulse wave 3, which belongs to the medium-term impulse wave (3) from December.
Given the clear uptrend that can be seen on the daily and the weekly charts, Gold can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 2785.00, former multi-month high from October.
2025-01-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bull channel/expanding triangle, doesn’t matter. Trade it until clearly broken. No one knows how high this can go and I said, until we clearly see consecutive big bear bars, bulls are in full control and you should look for longs instead of shorts. Market is beyond overvalued and overbought but that does not matter for now.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 21000 - 21500
bull case: Bulls are in full control. No one know’s where it stops. Look for longs. Bears have spikes and that’s it. Bulls are buying everything and just melting this higher.
Invalidation is below 21000.
bear case: You can not start looking for shorts until bears have closed a 1h bar below 21000. This is probably true for most traders. Are you 1 in a million and can make money trading both sides on this? Good for you but for the rest of us, we better come with easy to follow, tested and profitable strategies and try to survive. Trend is your friend. Don’t fight it. Was I wrong about the bearish outlook? Timing-wise, yes. But that will never stop me form changing my mind and trade what’s in front of me. I am here to make money and not to be proven right.
Invalidation is above 21500.
short term: Bullish until bears do more. Trade the channel.
medium-long term from 2024-01-20: Market hit 21k and now it’s about being patient until we sell-off again.
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Buying big previous support around 21000.
XAUUSDIm looking for a bullish setup in Gold because of good bullish momentum also
Higher highs on 1H
Trend breaks a very strong resistance
Healthy bullish candle closed above resistance
Bullish momentum started from rejecting 1D TL support
2025-01-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: One again we saw a huge Globex sell spike but now follow-through. Bulls are on their way to 6100 and there we will see how many buyers we can find to retest the ath 6186. Plan is simple, trade the bull channel/expanding triangle until clearly broken.
current market cycle: trading range (obvious bull trend on lower time frames)
key levels: 6000 - 6100 (above 6100 comes 6200 into play)
bull case: Bulls are in BTFD mode and making higher highs again. 6100 is their next target and the last resistance until 6186. Problem for the bulls is that we get decent sell spikes and holding through them is tough. That is probably why we see bigger profit taking when we print new highs.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Bears ask themselves how many pushes on whatever time frame bulls can honestly get. The 6100 likely won’t hold but how many are willing to buy above 6100 when we could easily pull-back 100 points. We will find out tomorrow. Bears don’t have many arguments. We have a clear bull pattern upwards and the best they can hope for is to scalp short on new highs for a decent pull-back. Until bears can close consecutive bars below 6000, I would not look for bigger shorts. Given the current erratic price action due to orange man tweets, it’s a wild ride. Trade smaller and with wider stops.
Invalidation is above 6120.
short term: Bullish for 6100, then Neutral until clearly breaking out above again. Targets above are 6186 and then 6200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 6000, duh. Otherwise literally every touch of the 1h 20ema.
Intraday Analysis XAU/USDThe price rejected a key resistance zone (marked at the top) and started moving downward.
The Fibonacci retracement levels (61.8% and 78.6%) are clearly visible and serve as potential support zones for retracements.
Short-term bearish trend due to rejection at resistance.
Bullish reversal possible from the 61.8% or 78.6% retracement zones.
XAUUSD Long Analysis 21/01/2025Hello guys,
Hope this new month of year was a good start for you, today I am sharing with you my analysis on XAUUSD (this is an idea and not a signal).
I believe there will be a pullback to the 1hr OB and it will continue upwards above the read dashed line as you can see on the chart. An imbalanced area is marked at that area and above it is a major supply area which is my POI.
If you think differently of what I am seeing, I'm all open ears.
XAUUSD TODAY'S CHART IN 4H TFHello Guy's Welcome To Another Day Of TRADING
Here we are mapping chart of XAUUSD ( GOLD ) in 4-Hour TF
Opinion : The setup looks promising for bullish traders, but:
Confirmation Needed: Wait for a breakout and close above the resistance zone for confirmation.
SUPPORT AREA. 2704
TARGET IS 2721
2ND TARGET IS 2743
Risk Management: Be cautious of a potential rejection at the resistance, leading to a pullback toward the channel's lower boundary.
Gold BuyOverview:
Gold has broken out of a key descending trendline, signaling strong bullish momentum. The price is currently testing the 2,740-2,750 support zone, previously a resistance, suggesting a potential continuation to the upside.
Key Points:
Breakout Confirmation: The breakout above the descending trendline adds to the bullish case.
Support Retest: The price is now testing the breakout area, turning it into strong support.
Target Levels:
🎯 TP1: 2,790 – Previous resistance zone.
🎯 TP2: 2,828 – Next key resistance level.
Stop Loss: Below 2,708, invalidating the bullish setup if breached.
Insights:
Gold remains attractive amid market uncertainties. Watch for price action around the support zone, as further consolidation or strong bullish candles may signal a clearer entry. Patience is key for maximizing risk-reward.
Let's GOO!
GOLD BERISH FOR 25000PIPS1. Understanding the Scale:
25000 Pips in Gold: A 25000-pip move in Gold means 250 units of price movement. Given that Gold typically moves in increments of 0.01 (1 pip), a 25000-pip move would imply a change of 250.00 in the price of Gold.
Example: If Gold is trading at $1900, a 25000-pip bearish move would target a price of $1650 (1900 - 250). This is an extremely large move, and it may take months or even years for Gold to make such a significant move unless there are extraordinary circumstances.
3000 Pips Stop Loss: A 3000-pip stop loss would be 30 units of price movement. For example, if Gold is trading at $1900, a stop loss at $2200 (1900 + 30) would be extremely wide, and you would need a very strong bearish outlook to justify it.
2. Technical Analysis for Long-Term Bearish Outlook:
Identify Strong Resistance Levels: The key for a long-term bearish prediction would be identifying major resistance levels that Gold is unable to break through. For instance, levels around $2000 or $2100 have been significant resistance in recent times.
Trend Confirmation: To justify a 25000-pip bearish target, there would need to be a significant breakdown in the market, such as:
Break of Key Support: A strong technical breakdown of key support levels (e.g., $1800, $1700) could signal the start of a long-term downtrend.
Bearish Trend Indicators: You would look for bearish patterns, such as lower highs and lower lows, to confirm the continuation of the downtrend. Moving averages (e.g., 200-day MA crossing below the 50-day MA) and RSI (under 50) would confirm a bearish trend.
3. Fundamental Analysis for a Long-Term Bearish Move:
U.S. Economic Data: A significant rise in U.S. interest rates or a strong U.S. Dollar could potentially push Gold lower. This could come from the Federal Reserve tightening policy in an effort to control inflation.
Deflationary Pressures or Market Risk Aversion: If global markets were to experience a deflationary crisis or risk sentiment dramatically changes (e.g., a global recession), investors might move away from Gold to other assets, driving the price down.
Commodity Market Conditions: Major changes in supply and demand dynamics for Gold (such as large-scale mining increases or lower demand for jewelry) could influence its price over the long term.
Short position enetered using my trading ruleA. TRADING RULES
1. Identify external range liquidity.
2. Wait for ERL to be broken and retraced in the 5min chart for clarity.
3. Mark Highs and lows of the break and retracement in 5mins chart.
4. Wait for this high or low to be broken with 3 strong candle displacement leaving a FVG in 5 mins chart.
5. Using Fib retracement, enter trade at 50% discount on the FVG.
6. Place SL on the opposing ERL marked on screen.
7. TP on the opposing internal range liquidity or external range liquidity.
8. If the above conditions are not met, DO NOT TRADE.
RULE 2
If on retracement, the FVG is violated on 50% retracement, enter short or long as the case may be.
If Marked point high and low is partially broken with FVG which then gets violated, enter for the long or short reversal as the case may be.
Equity Indices Starting off 2025Since the turn of the New Year, equity markets have seen a lot of volatility. The ES and NQ markets have both seen consolidation from the highs back in December, and now after testing the November lows are moving back higher. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the markets with a shift in global economics and politics on the front of many traders minds, but looking at the ES contract there is still a lot of recovery needed to retest the recent all time high levels.
Looking more at the economic data, this week will be lighter in terms of data being released, and traders are starting to look ahead to the Fed policy decision next week. The CME Fed Watch Tool is indicating that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at the January 29th meeting. Both the ES and NQ offer micro contracts that provide traders a unique level of scalability and a smaller barrier to entry, click here to learn more!
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
GOLD Will Keep Growing! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD broke the key
Horizontal level of 2726$
While trading in an uptrend
And the breakout is confirmed
So we are bullish biased and
After a potential correction
And a retest of the new support
We will be expecting a
Further bullish move up
Buy!
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21-1 Copper:21-1 Copper: metals are very popular at this time. For the long term copper is an interesting position. We therefore take a buy position at 4.3380.
NQ: 125th trading session - recapBit unfortunate today, could've had such a great trade...
Everything about the trade and why it could've been so good is explained on the chart, it is pretty simple actually. What made me a bit nervous was that the opening range was tilted to the downside. I don't really like trading in the direction of the range, I would've been way more confident in a bullish breakout. But I do gotta say that it's not the first time that an opening range breakout in the direction of the tilt played out really well. It probably doesn't matter anyway. Again, momentum > structure.
Overall we got a really solid chop afterwards. Still working on a strategy that revolves around it.
I won't trade the opening tomorrow, but I will keep an eye on the price action afterwards.
XAUUSD: Channel Up in need of a pullback.Gold is on an excellent bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.521, MACD = 20.810, ADX = 45.124) that highlights the uptrend provided by the Channel Up pattern since the start of the year. Having the 4H MA50 as the first support level, every time the price hit the pattern's top for a HH, it pulled back for 3 days to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. Consequently, our aim is that level (TP = 2,720) but we will take profit earlier if the 4H RSI hits its HL trendline first.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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