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CYCLE 4 | CME GAP: Bull Cycle Period First Major Pull Back?Quick post to address BTCs expected potential first major pull back into this bull run period... BULL MARKET PULL BACKS Historically, BTC during its bull market enjoys pull back which ranged from 15% to as much as 30%-40% in prior markets. This is essential for trader participants in the market to take profits, allow BTC to retest low levels and prove new heights are sustainable before ranging to new higher price levels. The first pull back historically for BTC post the start of the 'Bull Run' phase of BTCs 4 year cycle is traditionally the largest pull back opportunity and historically been the best short term buying opportunity in the Bull Run (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE). We can expect a 30-40% correction for this pull back based on historic bull market period examples (Let me know in the comments below if you would like me to detail consistent price behaviour during BTC bull run periods in a future post). ARE WE AT THIS POINT NOW OF THE CYCLE? WHAT ARE THE INDICATORS SAYING? As highlighted by the RED arrow on the chart, a number of the indicators like to monitor on the weekly chat are suggesting bearish divergences and fading momentum exists with the current price action. This is calling for a cooling off period of the market. CME GAP Historically, BTC has had a tendency to want to 'close' open gap, created by weekend trading of BTC that does not align with equities that follow the traditional 'No Trading' over the weekend policy of Traditional Financial instruments. Hence crypto ETFs which align with these policies (such as the CME Futures chart as seen in this chart) can create 'GAP' between the open (Monday) and close (Friday) candles. To understand CME gaps, please take the time to review the details discussion in the earlier post. The orange BOX shows the below CME gap target that BTC price may range towards to close. NOTE: this box has been listed as Partially Closed as the open Monday candle of the gap did go below before rising during the weekly candle but did no dip past the close of the previous weekly candle. 21W EMA & 20W SMA Historically, a fully developed healthy bull market for BTC has required periodic retesting and holding of these moving averages. A close of the CME gap at this point of the market would also satisfy this historic trend for BTC. ORANGE TREND LINE Bears if eager to continue the 'close the CME gap' trend will need to convince the market by first exceeding the orange trend line. Currently this allows BTC to complete a 10 to 12% correction while also taking the price below the key psychological 100K price level, without phasing the bulls conviction to charger higher. * Holding the Orange Trend Line Scenario: we want to see price bounce and conviction from the bulls to push BTC to higher highs. The goal for Bears would be to achieve the measured move up to 180K. This would most potentially shorted the bull run (time prospective) and potentially cap our ATH for this cycle early; creating a distribution zone similar to the 2021 cycle top. * Breaking below the Orange Trend Line Scenario: If we break the Orange Trend Line then Bulls will concede ground to the MA levels (allowing the CME gap to also close). Bulls will write this off as a market reset and holding support at these levels will entice Traders to take positions needed to drive BTC up sustainably to the next higher level(s). Losing the MAs would ask serious questions to the intent of BULLs and the sustainability of the market moving forward this bull run.....
CME:BTC1!
by Brodie
GOLDEN INFORMATION / GOLD UPDATE / WEEKLY CLOSING / FED UPDATETRADINGVIEW: plan day 12/20/2024 (Friday) ⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Thursday's US economic data revealed a decline in unemployment claims, while the final Q3 GDP report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed 3.1% year-over-year growth. Despite these figures, market attention remains focused on projections for 2025. The Federal Reserve (Fed), led by Chair Jerome Powell, reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, though the decision was not unanimous, with Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of maintaining current rates. Fed officials have also shifted focus to inflation, as reflected in the dot plot. Their projections indicate two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025 and another two in 2026. ⭐️Personal comments PIPS & PROFIT: Strong Bearish Trend - Pressure on Market Maintains Around 2600 ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2626 - $2628 SL $2633 TP1: $2620 TP2: $2610 TP3: $2600 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2576 - $2574 SL $2569 TP1: $2582 TP2: $2590 TP3: $2600 Let support Pips & Profit by LIKE AND COMMENT TRADINGVIEW. Thank you very much everyone 🌸🌸🌸
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by PIPS_n_PROFIT
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/20/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 21429.25 - PR Low: 21363.00 - NZ Spread: 148.25 Key scheduled economic events: 08:30 | Core PCE Price Index (YoY|MoM) Value decline continues below daily Keltner avg cloud - QQQ gap filled - Maintaining vols since FOMC triggered selling - Next key pivot, 20920 zone from Nov 27 Session Open Stats (As of 12:40 AM 12/20) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 345.51 - Volume: 51K - Open Int: 237K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -5.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025Short
by mv3trader5
Usoil trade WTI moves below 69.00, further downside seems possible due to stronger US Dollar West Texas Intermediate Oil price extends its losing streak for the fifth successive session, trading around $68.90 per barrel during the Asian hours on Friday. Crude Oil prices, denominated in dollars, are on track for a weekly decline due to a stronger US DollarCrude Oil, commonly known as petroleum, is a naturally occurring fossil fuel liquid composed of hydrocarbon underground deposits and organic materials. The prices of this popular commodity are measured in USD. Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, Iran and China are the countries producing more oil. On the other hand, United States, China, Japan, Russia, and Germany are the countries consuming more oilCrude oil is classified into various grades according to density (heavy vs light) and sulphur content (sour vs sweet). The lighter and sweeter the crude, the higher the price it can be sold, because refiners can produce higher yield of high quality refined products from it. Density is measured by API gravity, a measure developed to compare the density of petroleum with water (API > 10 means the liquid floats on water) but is now widely used to compare among crude oils. API degree is inversely related to the density of crude oil. In general, crudes of API between 40-45 degrees can be sold at greatest commercial values
TVC:USOILShort
by KingForex078
Rates Are Down, So Why Isn’t Gold Shining?Gold Prices Drop to 2581 Amid Market Turmoil: What's Driving the Decline? Gold prices, as reflected in the XAU/USD pair, have slumped to 2581, marking a significant dip in the market. While many anticipated that falling interest rates would bolster gold, the reality has turned out to be more complex. Yesterday’s developments weighed heavily on the precious metal, and surprisingly, the negative impact isn’t directly tied to rate cuts. Instead, a mix of economic uncertainty and technical market dynamics has pushed gold into bearish territory. The Core Reason Behind Gold’s Decline The primary driver of this downward movement is the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach regarding future rate cuts. While the Fed followed market expectations by reducing the benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, its projections for next year surprised many. The central bank’s forecast of just two rate cuts in 2024 falls significantly short of market expectations, signaling a more hawkish stance than anticipated. This hawkishness has rippled through global markets. The U.S. dollar, buoyed by the Fed’s cautious tone, has strengthened, creating headwinds for commodities like gold that are priced in dollars. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers, diminishing its appeal as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, broader market indices have also faced selling pressure, reflecting heightened concerns about the economic outlook. Technical Factors Amplify the Bearish Sentiment From a technical perspective, gold’s price action underscores the bearish sentiment dominating the market. The XAU/USD pair has decisively broken below a critical support level, exiting a global ascending channel that had been intact for weeks. This breakout has confirmed the downward momentum, with gold setting a new low at 2581. Key support and resistance levels now define the boundaries of potential price movements: Resistance Levels: 2620, 2630, 2636 Support Levels: 2616, 2612, 2603 After breaking below the support, the price has moved into an imbalance zone, signaling a possible retest of the previously broken channel boundary. This retest could serve as a pivotal moment for market participants. If the price fails to reclaim the resistance zones at 2620 or 2630 and consolidates below these levels, it could pave the way for further declines. False breakouts, where the price briefly breaches a resistance level before reversing, are another factor to watch closely. A failed attempt to break key resistances like 2620 or 2630 could reinforce the bearish trend and lead to further downward pressure on gold. Macroeconomic Data in Focus Today’s trading session brings additional catalysts that could shape gold’s trajectory. Market attention is firmly fixed on the release of U.S. GDP data and initial jobless claims. These indicators will provide fresh insights into the health of the U.S. economy and could either reinforce or challenge the Fed’s cautious stance. A stronger-than-expected GDP reading or lower-than-expected jobless claims could further support the dollar, adding to gold’s woes. Conversely, weaker economic data might rekindle hopes for more aggressive rate cuts, potentially offering some relief to gold prices. Broader Implications for Gold Investors The recent price action in gold highlights the complex interplay between macroeconomic fundamentals, central bank policies, and technical market dynamics. While gold has traditionally been viewed as a safe haven, its performance is not immune to shifts in interest rate expectations and currency fluctuations. For investors, the key question is whether gold’s current bearish trend represents a short-term correction or the beginning of a more sustained decline. Much will depend on how the Federal Reserve’s policy unfolds in the coming months and how global economic conditions evolve. In the short term, traders should monitor key technical levels closely. A decisive break above resistance at 2636 could signal a reversal of the bearish trend, while a sustained move below support at 2603 would likely confirm further downside potential. Until then, gold remains under pressure, navigating a challenging and uncertain landscape.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by lonelyPlayer0
2
XAUUSD (Gold) Bullish trade Idea over the breakout of 2604.02 leXAUUSD (Gold) Bullish trade idea over the breakout of 2604.02 level. Gold fell on the recent 18 Dec 2024 FOMC, and on 19 Dec 2024 the unemployment data was strong for the US dollar, so now I am watching the buy-side trade idea over the breakout of the 2604.02 level with strong confirmations of price at this level. The setup must meet the required momentum in the price. The sentiments also show the price will move as per the data revelled from various sites. Setup; Gold Buy at level: 2604.2-2605.2 Stop Loss: 2599.2 (50 pips) or the low of previous candle Take Profit; 2623 *Note; If the valid breakout will be found then the setup also valid otherwised find more oppercunity.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Bloom_Forex_Official
XAUUSD 30mintsAccording to the XAUUSD 30mints time frame there is a ARC pattern and when market breakout this pattern then it fall and again breakout and fall so, we have confrim target of XAUUSD market, it will going to retest the level which is 2650. so, i used stochistic RSI indicator on 30mints time frame, which is seems like it will going to fall from the current level. entry point is from 2600 stop loss is 2620 take profit is 2580-2550 don't forget to follow me for more updates and appreciate my work with your likes and comments.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Fx_Publu_Trader
My Best analysis I have analyzed the recent price movement of gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, and here are my observations: 1. Downtrend: The price is currently following a downward trend, indicating a bearish market sentiment. 2. Resistance Level: A strong resistance zone has been identified near the 2,598 level. 3. Potential Breakout: If the price manages to break above this resistance, an upward move can be expected. However, failure to break the resistance might result in a further decline toward the 2,560 level. 4. Bearish Target: A potential bearish target around 2,560 has been highlighted based on the current trend.
TVC:GOLD
by LunaTrader_SingnalsProvider