Analysis of the latest gold market trend on May 28:
I. Key points on the news
The US dollar rebounded strongly
The US dollar index (DXY) rebounded from a low in the past month, reaching a high of 99.42 (+0.4%), suppressing gold demand.
If the US dollar continues to rebound, gold may be further under pressure.
Risk aversion sentiment cools down
Market concerns about the international trade situation have eased, weakening gold's safe-haven buying.
If risk sentiment deteriorates again (such as escalation of geopolitical conflicts), gold prices may rebound quickly.
Fed policy expectations
The market pays attention to US economic data and speeches by Fed officials. If "hawkish" signals are released (such as rising expectations of interest rate hikes), it will be bearish for gold.
II. Key technical analysis
(1) Trend structure
Daily level:
The adjustment structure since $3,500 is still continuing, and it may currently be in the a-wave decline after the X-wave rebound.
If it falls below the 3280-3292 support, it may accelerate downward, with a target of 3270→3250, or even test 2956 (bottom of wave 4).
If 3280 is held, it may rebound at the 4-hour level and test the resistance of 3320-3330.
Key resistance:
3320-3330 (ideal area for short-term short positions)
3365-3370 (previous top and bottom conversion + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level, strong resistance)
Key support:
3280-3292 (short-term long-short watershed)
3270 (breaking will confirm further decline)
(2) Short-term trend judgment
If the US dollar continues to strengthen → gold breaks below 3280 and looks to 3270-3250.
If the US dollar pulls back or risk aversion heats up → gold rebounds and tests 3320-3330.
3. Today's trading strategy
(1) Short order strategy (main idea)
Entry point: 3320-3330 area
Target: 3290→3270
Stop loss: above 3335
(2) Long order strategy (auxiliary idea)
Condition: Gold price stabilizes at 3280-3292 (need to combine K-line signals, such as hammer line, etc.)
Target: 3300-3310
Stop loss: below 3270
(3) Breakthrough strategy
If it falls below 3270 → go short, target 3250-3230.
If it breaks through 3330 → wait and see whether to further test 3365-3370.
4. Summary
Short-term trend: bearish, pay attention to the breakthrough of 3280-3330.
Key drivers: US dollar trend, market risk sentiment, and Fed policy expectations.
Operation suggestions:
Main strategy: short when the price rebounds to 3320-3330.
Secondary strategy: try to buy with a light position at the support level of 3280-3292 (strict stop loss).
Breakthrough follow-up: short when the price falls below 3270, or wait for higher resistance after breaking through 3330 before shorting.
