GOLD – A Bottom in Place or Just the Calm Before the Storm?GOLD – A Bottom in Place or Just the Calm Before the Storm?
Gold has recently shed nearly $50, indicating sustained bearish pressure. But here’s the real question:
👉 Is this simply a liquidity sweep before a bullish reversal?
👉 Or are we witnessing the early stages of a broader bearish continuation?
Let’s break it all down – step by step – to map out smart, reaction-based trading opportunities.
🌍 Macro & Fundamental Overview
The US–EU trade and defence agreement has dampened gold’s role as a safe haven in the short term.
The US Dollar and equity markets remain strong, driven by solid macroeconomic data.
Overall market sentiment leans “risk-on”, pushing capital into riskier assets and away from precious metals.
📆 Upcoming Key Events:
Tuesday: ADP Employment Data
Friday: FOMC Statement & Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
These events could drastically shift market expectations around Fed policy, impacting gold’s direction.
📊 Technical Picture (Timeframes H1–H4)
Gold has rebounded from recent lows and is currently moving within a parallel bullish channel.
However, price is now nearing a critical resistance level at 3342 – a potential turning point.
🔎 Key Technical Zones:
🔺 Short-Term Resistance: 3342
🔺 Major Supply Zone: 3369–3388 (Order Block + Fair Value Gap + Fib 0.5–0.618)
🔻 High-Liquidity Support Zone: 3293–3290
🔻 Key Demand Zone (FVG): 3275–3273
🔺 High-Level Resistance: 3416
🧭 Trading Plan – Based on Price Action (Not Prediction)
We don’t guess the market. We wait, watch, and react based on price confirmation.
✅ Scenario 1 – Buy the Dip (Scalp Setup)
Entry: 3293 – 3291
Stop Loss: 3286
Targets: 3296 → 3300 → 3304 → 3308 → 3312 → 3315 → 3320 → 3330
🟢 Ideal for intraday scalps within high-liquidity zones.
✅ Scenario 2 – Buy from Deep Demand (Swing Setup)
Entry: 3275 – 3273
Stop Loss: 3269
Targets: 3280 → 3284 → 3288 → 3292 → 3300 → 3305 → 3310 → 3320 → 3330
🟢 Great opportunity if price absorbs selling pressure at the FVG zone and reverses.
❌ Scenario 3 – Short from Key Resistance (3342)
Entry: 3340 – 3342
Stop Loss: 3346
Targets: 3335 → 3330 → 3325 → 3320 → 3310
🔴 Use if price fails to break and hold above 3342.
❌ Scenario 4 – Short from Major Supply Zone (Swing)
Entry: 3369 – 3372
Stop Loss: 3376
Targets: 3365 → 3360 → 3355 → 3350 → 3345 → 3340 → 3330 → 3320
🔴 Higher-risk setup; enter only on strong rejection or bearish candlestick confirmation.
⚠️ Risk Management Guidelines
Avoid entries during the London and NY open – fakeouts and stop hunts are common.
Always wait for clear price reaction within zones – avoid impulsive entries.
Respect your stop-loss levels, especially with this week’s major data releases.
🎯 Final Thoughts for UK & Global Traders
Let the market come to you – never chase price.
Stay disciplined, especially in volatile weeks like this one.
The best trades are reactionary, not predictive.
💬 Found this plan useful?
Feel free to comment your views or follow for more structured gold analyses throughout the week.
