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COPPER : The problem of inflationHello there, good ? Me not. Because : Inflation is a normal mecanism in a healthy economy. It's true. But the problem is : where does inflation come from? 1- So Inflation comes from healthy economic activity? With many exchanges, company creations, innovations ? 2- Or.. inflation come from quantitaive easing ? With poor innovations, poor economic activity ? Just for save the ship ? ATM, for the occidental countries, we are in the second idea. So, what is the consequences of this ? An impoverishment of the people, because everything increases mechanically according to the currency injected into the system. The income up ? No, and worst, the debt is "lost". We have some cycles in economy. And the worst waves for people is the commodities waves. Because all up and not the income. For exemple, here, we have the copper. • 1st wave is in 2000. • 2nd wave is now or soon. What do you think about the consequences ? We have almost 20 years of consolidation. Gold up because currencies down. We don't care about supply and demand here. Poor people.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Lucideisrise
XAUUSD Forming Bullish Continuation Patternhi traders, let's have a look at Gold on 3D time frame. ✅ Technical Outlook: Uptrend Still Intact Price action remains firmly within a higher high, higher low structure, confirming that Gold is still in an active uptrend. * We can observe the Ascending Triangle Formation. An ascending triangle has formed, with the price consistently finding support on a rising trendline while pressing against the horizontal resistance around $3,430. This pattern typically acts as a bullish continuation, especially within strong trends. Potential Breakout Target If XAUUSD breaks above the horizontal resistance, the measured move (height of the triangle) points to a potential upside of ~13.32%, targeting the $3,880–3,900 zone. RSI Observations The RSI is consolidating just above 50 and remains in bullish territory. A breakout above the RSI trendline would further support bullish momentum. 📌 Trade Scenario (Plan A – Bullish Breakout): Entry: Upon breakout and daily close above ~$3,430 Target: ~$3,880 Support Trendline: Acting as dynamic support 📌 Alternate Scenario (Plan B – Retest): Price may retest the ascending trendline support before attempting a breakout. This would offer a lower-risk entry opportunity with tighter invalidation. 🧠 Summary: Gold remains in a strong uptrend, and the formation of an ascending triangle suggests a likely continuation to the upside. Watch for a breakout confirmation above the horizontal resistance for a potential high-probability long setup.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by vf_investment
2
Gold may bounce up from support line of channel to 3330 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. Previously, the price broke out of a symmetrical triangle and moved confidently toward the seller zone. However, it failed to consolidate there and formed a downward channel, where price action has remained since. The movement inside this channel has been consistent, respecting both the resistance and support lines. After reaching the lower boundary, the price bounced up and approached the resistance area (3290 - 3300), which now acts as a key short-term obstacle. This zone was tested multiple times and served as support earlier, making it a strong technical level. Currently, the price is trading just below this zone and forming a base for the next move. I expect a possible retest of the support line of the downward channel, which may provide the impulse needed for a new upward move. In my opinion, the price will rebound from the bottom of the channel and start to grow toward the current resistance level at 3300. If this level is broken and confirmed via a retest, I expect continued movement toward the channel’s upper resistance line. That’s why I set my TP 1 at 3330 points, right near the resistance line of the channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDShort
by LegionQ8
20
Down for goldHi traders, Last week gold went lower then expected (wavecount updated). The last wave down could be wave 2 or it's part of a big Triangle/ Flat. Next week we could see this pair to go lower to sweep the liquidity below the lows and fill the 4H bullish FVG. After that it could go up again. Let's see what price does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to finish and trade (short term) shorts. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EduwaveTrading
Mastering Delta–Volume Divergence 🎓 Mastering Delta–Volume Divergence: How to Read Institutional Absorption and Trap Setups ⸻ 1️⃣ What Is Delta? Delta measures the net aggression between buyers and sellers: • Market Buys: traders lifting the ask • minus • Market Sells: traders hitting the bid ✅ Positive Delta indicates stronger buying pressure. ✅ Negative Delta indicates stronger selling pressure. Delta shows who is initiating trades, not just that trading is occurring. ⸻ 2️⃣ What Is Volume? Volume measures the total number of contracts traded, regardless of who initiated them. Every matched buy and sell contributes equally to volume. Volume reveals activity, but not who controls the move. ⸻ 3️⃣ What Is Delta–Volume Divergence? Delta–Volume Divergence occurs when: ✅ Volume is high (lots of trades happening), ✅ But Delta is near zero (neither side dominates). This signals: • Intense two-sided activity between buyers and sellers, • Strong participation on both sides, • Passive absorption—institutions quietly filling large orders without moving price significantly. ⸻ 4️⃣ Chart Breakdown – Bar by Bar Below is a clear example of this concept in practice, reviewing each daily bar from your footprint chart: ⸻ 🔴 June 24 • Delta: -8,240 (strong net selling) • Volume: 575,720 (very high) • Interpretation: • Heavy, aggressive selling. • Clear trend-confirming action. • No divergence. ⸻ 🟢 June 25 • Delta: +4,650 (net buying) • Volume: 343,990 (moderate) • Interpretation: • Counter-trend buying or short covering. • Less volume and less conviction. ⸻ 🟢 June 26 • Delta: +2,690 (mild net buying) • Volume: 416,820 (higher) • Interpretation: • Rising volume but weaker delta. • Early sign of balance developing. • Possible absorption beginning. ⸻ 🟨 June 27 (Critical Bar) • Delta: +272 (near zero) • Volume: 540,310 (very high) • Interpretation: • Huge volume churn. • Neither buyers nor sellers in control. • Likely institutional absorption of aggressive orders. ✅ This is a textbook example of Delta–Volume Divergence. ⸻ 5️⃣ Why This Matters Professional Insight: • Sellers had been aggressive for several sessions. • Suddenly, volume remained elevated, but delta flatlined. • This suggests: • Exhaustion of selling aggression, or • Institutional accumulation and passive positioning. This often sets the stage for: • A trap reversal (short squeeze), or • A continuation flush if sellers regroup and push lower. ⸻ 6️⃣ Confirmation Scenarios Scenario A: Bearish Continuation • Watch for renewed strong negative delta (e.g., -5,000 or worse). • Price remains below the last support (~3,250). • Confirms absorption failed and sellers remain dominant. Scenario B: Short Squeeze Reversal • Price reclaims the VAL (~3,285–3,300). • Delta flips strongly positive (+5,000 or more). • Trapped shorts begin covering, driving price back toward supply. ⸻ 7️⃣ Common Misinterpretation ⚠️ High volume alone does NOT mean momentum. Key Point: If delta is flat, high volume simply means churn, not directional energy. This is why inexperienced traders often get caught: • They see heavy volume and assume a breakout is underway. • In reality, the market is absorbing liquidity to trap both sides. ⸻ 8️⃣ Professional Tips for Trading Divergence ✅ Wait for confirmation before entering: • Clear delta shifts, and • Price reclaiming or rejecting key levels. ✅ Be aware of stop zones: • Under recent lows if buyers fail, • Above recent range if sellers get exhausted. ✅ Avoid trading during pure churn without clear follow-through. ⸻ 9️⃣ Quick Recap ✅ Delta–Volume Divergence: High volume, flat delta, no clear directional control. ✅ Typically signals absorption and position buildup. ✅ Requires confirmation before committing to trades. ✅ Recognizing it helps you avoid traps and false breakouts. ⸻ 🔟 Final Thought Learning to read divergence is what separates professional traders from retail: “Volume tells you how hard the market is working. Delta tells you who’s winning.” Combine both to see the hidden game behind every price bar. ⸻ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This lesson is for educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
2
Market next target 🟥 Disrupted (Bearish or Cautious) Analysis: 1. Failed Bullish Attempt Risk While a bounce from the support zone (~3,260 USD) is visible, the momentum lacks strong bullish confirmation. The rejection from the support area could be a dead-cat bounce, especially since the overall trend leading into this zone was sharply downward. 2. Volume Divergence The volume spike on the large red candle suggests heavy selling pressure, not accumulation. The weak follow-up volume on the minor green recovery bars indicates a lack of buyer confidence. 3. False Breakout Possibility If price does push toward the “Target” or even the “Resistance” zone (3,290–3,310), it might be a bull trap, luring late buyers in before a reversal back downward. 4. Bearish Continuation Scenario Price may retest the support zone (3,260) again. If this support breaks decisively, it could trigger a strong sell-off, with potential to test lower zones around 3,240 or even 3,200.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Gold_Free_Signals
XAUMO REPORT: Monday, June 30, 2025 ⚔️ XAUUSD Daily Institutional Analysis Monday, June 30, 2025 ⸻ 1️⃣ Price Structure & Context Current Market Snapshot: • Daily Close (June 28): 3,273.40 • Key Technical Breaks: • Closed decisively below the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement (3,288) • Breached and retested the Value Area Low (VAL) at 3,285.91 • Clear rejection of the 0.618 retracement (3,316) • Now sitting just above the final liquidity shelf around 3,250. Structural Interpretation: • This marks the final stage of distribution, transitioning into a momentum-driven decline. • Lower Highs: 3,500 > 3,420 > 3,390 > 3,330 • Lower Lows: 3,273 is the weakest daily close in 6 weeks. • Repeated failure to reclaim even modest retracements signals strong bearish acceptance. ⸻ 2️⃣ Volume Profile & Footprint Volume Clusters: • POC: 3,320.39 (major supply concentration) • VAH: 3,396.23 (untested for weeks) • VAL: 3,285.91 (broken and retested) Footprint Analysis: • Persistent negative delta below 3,300 (heavy hitting into bids) • Friday’s volume: 544K vs. 486K average, confirming conviction • No evidence of absorption or meaningful buying at the lows Institutional Interpretation: • 3,320–3,330: Active institutional sell zone • 3,285–3,250: Dense stop clusters from trapped longs • A clean break below 3,250 likely triggers a vacuum flush toward 3,200–3,180 ⸻ 3️⃣ Trend & Momentum • Daily Trend: Steepening bearish slope • Weekly Trend: Ongoing Wave 3 breakdown • Momentum Indicators: • RSI: Sub-45 (bearish bias) • ATR: Expanding (increased volatility) • Failed retracements reinforce selling pressure Conclusion: Momentum remains decisively bearish, accelerating into illiquid conditions. ⸻ 4️⃣ Wave & Fibonacci Confluence Measured Extension Targets: • 1.0 Extension: ~3,258 • 1.272 Extension: ~3,220 • 1.618 Extension: ~3,180 Interpretation: • Primary Target: 3,258–3,250 • Extended Target (if liquidity collapses): 3,180 ⸻ 5️⃣ Liquidity & July 4th Market Closure Schedule: • Monday, June 30: Full liquidity • Tuesday–Wednesday: Gradual volume decline • Thursday, July 3: Early closes, pre-holiday squaring • Friday, July 4: NY COMEX & CME Globex metals closed • Monday, July 7: Liquidity resumes Tactical Impact: • Monday is the only fully liquid session for reliable positioning. • Mid-week thin liquidity is highly prone to false rallies and stop hunts. • Real directional moves typically return after the holiday closure. ⸻ 6️⃣ Stop Hunt & Liquidity Pools Above Price: • 3,316–3,330: Clustered short stops above failed retracement • 3,350: Minor breakout stops Below Price: • 3,250–3,240: Dense stop pockets from dip buyers • Under 3,240: Limited liquidity down to ~3,200–3,180 Institutional Playbook: • Monday–Tuesday: Potential tactical squeeze up to 3,316–3,330 to trigger stops. • Post-sweep fade back to 3,260–3,250. • Friday likely muted due to closure. • Monday, July 7: High-probability directional expansion. ⸻ 7️⃣ Monday, June 30 – Precise Daily Trading Playbook ⸻ 🎯 Scenario A – Reversion Rally into Supply Setup: • Price rallies into 3,316–3,330 during London–NY overlap. • Footprint shows negative delta reappearing. Execution: • Entry: Sell limit 3,320–3,325 • Stop: 3,355 • Target 1: 3,260 • Target 2: 3,220–3,200 • Confidence: 70% ⸻ 🎯 Scenario B – Direct Breakdown Setup: • Price fails to reclaim 3,288 • 1-hour close below 3,250 on expanding volume Execution: • Entry: Sell stop 3,248 • Stop: 3,300 • Target 1: 3,200 • Target 2: 3,180 • Confidence: 85% ⸻ 🎯 Scenario C – Dead Range Pre-Holiday Setup: • Price consolidates between 3,270–3,290 • Volume collapses below 300K Execution: • No trade – stand aside until liquidity returns ⸻ 8️⃣ Hypothetical Institutional Trade Setup • Order Type: Sell Stop • Trigger: 1-hour close under 3,250 on 2x normal volume • Entry: 3,248 • Stop: 3,300 • Target: 3,200 • Position Size: 0.75–1% account risk • Probability: 85% ⸻ 9️⃣ Executive Summary ✅ Trend: Dominant bearish ✅ Momentum: Accelerating downwards ✅ Liquidity: Normal Monday, low mid-week, reactivating post-holiday ✅ Institutional Bias: Sell rallies and exploit stops under 3,250 ✅ Psychology: • Retail FOMO on rallies above 3,316 • Panic if 3,250 breaks ✅ Key Dates: • Monday: Execution window • Mid-week: Thin liquidity, false moves • Friday: Market closure • Monday, July 7: Expected main move ⸻ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is hypothetical and educational. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
SMC Trading Basics. Change of Character - CHoCH (GOLD FOREX) In the today's post, we will discuss one of the most crucial concepts in SMC - Change of Character. Change of Character relates to market trend analysis. In order to understand its meaning properly, first, we will discuss how Smart Money traders execute trend analysis. 🔘Smart Money Traders apply price action for the identification of the direction of the market. They believe that the trend is bullish , if the price forms at least 2 bullish impulse with 2 consequent higher highs and a higher low between them. The market trend is considered to be bearish , if the market forms at least 2 bearish impulses with 2 consequent lower lows and a lower high between them. Here is how the trend analysis looks in practice. One perceives the price action as the set of impulse and retracement legs. According to the rules described above, USDCAD is trading in a bullish trend because the pair set 2 higher lows and 2 higher highs. 🔘Of course, trends do not last forever. A skill of the identification of the market reversal is a key to substantial profits in trading. Change of Character will help you quite accurately identify a bullish and bearish trend violation. 📉In a bearish trend, the main focus is the level of the last lower high. While the market is trading below or on that, the trend remains bearish . However, its bullish violation is a very important bullish signal, it is called a Change of Character, and it signifies a confirmed violation of a bearish trend. In a bearish trend, CHoCH is a very powerful bullish pattern. Take a look, how accurate CHoCH indicated the trend reversal on Gold. After a massive selloff, a bullish breakout of the level of the last lower high confirmed the initiation of a strong bullish wave. 📈In a bullish trend, the main point of interest is the level of the last higher low. While the price is trading above that or on that, the trend remains bullish. A bearish violation of the last higher low level signifies the violation of a current bullish trend. It is called a Change of Character, and it is a very accurate bearish pattern. Take a look at the example on Dollar Index below. In a bullish trend, bearish violation of the last higher low level quite accurately predicted a coming bearish reversal. Change of Character is one of the simplest , yet accurate SMC patterns that you should know. First, learn to properly execute the price action analysis and identify HH, HL, LL, LH and then CHoCH will be your main tool for the identification of the trend reversal. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
XAUUSD D1 Forecast: Gold at Pivotal 325x Support What's Next for the Yellow Metal? Today, we're zooming out to examine the broader picture for Gold (XAUUSD) on the Daily (D1) timeframe. Our latest analysis indicates that Gold has encountered a very strong, critical support level around the 325x region. This is a pivotal point that could significantly influence Gold's medium to long-term direction! 🌍 Macroeconomic Landscape: The Underlying Forces Influencing Gold While we've observed a degree of USD weakness stemming from speculations around the Federal Reserve (such as the rumours regarding Jerome Powell's replacement) and expectations of interest rate cuts, these factors haven't fully countered Gold's recent decline on the daily chart. Furthermore, the sustained ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to temper Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Nevertheless, the current price action at the robust 325x support level presents a significant technical signal. The impact of forthcoming US macroeconomic data (particularly the PCE Price Index on Friday) and speeches from FOMC members will be crucial in confirming or negating our projected movements for Gold. Should positive news for Gold align with this support holding, it could act as a potent catalyst. 📊 XAUUSD D1 Technical Analysis: Projecting Gold's Next Move Given that Gold has reached strong support at 325x, we can anticipate the following scenarios: Bounce from 325x (Potential Upside Phase): If the 325x area (which reinforces the 3264.400 support from image_e9d325.png) holds firm, we expect a strong reaction and an upward move for Gold. The initial target for this bounce would be the 332x region, aligning with resistance levels 3313.737 - 3330.483 from our previous analysis. On a broader timeframe (as illustrated in image_83845c.png), this corresponds to the resistance zone around 3326.022. This 332x area might represent a continuation pattern, suggesting it could be a corrective rally before the resumption of the larger trend. Resumption of Downtrend (After Reaching 332x): Once Gold reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and exhibits bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing candle, a pin bar, or a clear top formation), we anticipate a resumption of the downward movement. The next major target for this decline would be the 317x area, which correlates well with the strong support at 3173.052 on the larger timeframe (as depicted in image_83845c.png). 🎯 XAUUSD D1 Trading Plan: Your Long-Term Strategy Ahead! Considering the current D1 analysis, here's our actionable plan: 1. BUY PHASE (Bounce from Support): Entry: Observe price reaction in the 325x - 326x zone (specifically 3264.400). Only consider buying if there are clear bullish confirmations (e.g., a confirmed bullish pattern on the daily or 4-hour candle, a strong bounce from the zone with significant volume). SL (Stop Loss): Position just below the 325x support zone (e.g., 3245-3240, depending on confirmation). TP (Take Profit): 3280 - 3284 - 3290 - 3295 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3313.737 - 3320 - 3326.022 (key 332x zone). This will be our primary target for the potential bounce. 2. SELL PHASE (Downtrend Resumption): Entry: Once the price reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and shows bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing, pin bar, or clear top formation). SL (Stop Loss): Position slightly above the 332x zone (e.g., 3335-3340). TP (Take Profit): 3326 - 3320 - 3316 - 3310 - 3305 - 3300 - 3295 - 3290 - 3280 - 3200 - 3173.052 (final 317x target).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MMFlowTrading
1
XAUUSD Bearish Setup | OB & FVG Confluence | Targeting 3230Title: XAUUSD Bearish Setup | OB & FVG Confluence | Targeting 3230 📉 Analysis Overview (4H Timeframe) Gold (XAUUSD) is currently in a clear downtrend, confirmed by lower highs and lower lows. Recent price action shows strong bearish momentum with confluences of key Bearish Order Blocks (OBs) and Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) forming ideal trade setups. --- 🔍 Key Technical Zones 🔴 Bearish OB: 3355–3370 🟧 FVG: 3340–3355 🔵 Sell Entry Zone: 3300–3310 ❌ Stop Loss: Above 3330 🟢 Bullish OB (Buy Zone): 3255–3265 🟧 Lower FVG (Potential Reaction Area): 3285–3295 --- 🎯 Take Profits TP1: 3270 TP2: 3255 TP3: 3230 --- 💡 Trade Idea Entering short near the 3300–3310 area, which aligns with a previous FVG and resistance area. Strong OB and FVG confluence above make 3330 a logical SL. The downside has clean imbalances and OBs to support price delivery lower. --- 📌 Bias: Bearish ⏱️ Timeframe: 4H 📊 Risk-Reward: Favorable with minimal drawdown near OB rejection zone. --- 💬 Drop your thoughts below or agree if this aligns with your view! #XAUUSD #Gold #SmartMoney #ICT #FVG #OrderBlock #PriceAction #TradingViewIdeas
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Advmawais1
2
Gold is coiling for a breakout... All eyes on the next move!📉 Gold is currently moving within a minor descending channel. In yesterday’s analysis, I pointed out the potential for a drop. Now, after a period of range-bound movement, I expect a breakout from this channel and a return to the main trend. 🎯 The first target on a reversal would be the top of the minor channel. Keep a close eye on price action here — this zone could be key for the next move OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by erfan_shakori
1
Xauusd market This chart illustrates a potential bullish reversal setup for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on the 2-hour timeframe. Here’s a breakdown of the analysis: --- 🟦 Key Observations: 1. Current Price: $3,274.175 — down by 1.61%, indicating a recent bearish move. 2. Support Zone: Price has entered and reacted from a major demand zone (light blue box near 3,250), suggesting buying interest. 3. Projected Price Path (black dotted lines): Initial bounce toward the first resistance around 3,320. A pullback may occur, potentially retesting lower support before resuming upward movement. Price is expected to climb toward higher supply zones at: 3,360 3,400 3,440 4. Bullish Reaction Icon (⚡️): Marks a potential reversal or liquidity grab before a bullish impulse. 5. News Event Icons (🇺🇸): U.S. economic data releases are anticipated near July 2–4, which could trigger volatility and confirm the direction. --- 📈 Outlook Summary: Bias: Bullish (short to mid-term) Key Levels to Watch: Support: 3,250 – 3,270 zone Targets: 3,320 → 3,360 → 3,400 → 3,440 Invalidation: A clean break and close below 3,240 would challenge the bullish outlook. Let me know if you’d like a breakdown of entry/exit strategies or risk management tips based on this setup.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mr_Zakrii
9
XAUMO REPORT: XAUUSD WEEKLY ANALYSIS Period: Monday June 30 – Friday July 5 Focus: US Independence Day (July 4), NY Market Closure Impact 🟢1. Price Action Context Last Week (ending June 28): Weekly bearish engulfing closed near the lows (~3,250 area). Series of failed rallies above 3,330. Price compressed in a tight lower range—distribution, not accumulation. Monday June 30 – Friday July 5: Market begins in a low-confidence, low-volume environment. Tuesday–Wednesday: traders will be positioning ahead of July 4 closure. Thursday (July 4): NY market closed—no COMEX metals futures settlement. Friday (July 5): NY market reopens—liquidity and volume surge back in. 🟡 2. Range, Support & Resistance Composite Volume Profile: VAH: ~3,410 POC: ~3,330 (where the heaviest volume has been transacted) VAL: ~3,250 (final defense) Support: 3,250: major structural shelf 3,200: next key liquidity target Resistance: 3,330–3,350: loaded supply zone 3,390–3,420: overhead liquidity from prior weeks Interpretation: Price under POC, hugging VAL, is bearish. Acceptance under 3,250 sets up a vacuum to 3,180–3,200. 🔵 3. Volume Footprint and Delta Footprint Characteristics: Strong negative delta (-21K) as price approached 3,250. Buyers unable to lift offers at 3,300+. Repeated ask dominance = supply persistence. Institutional Read: They’re selling into every bounce, and liquidity thinness around July 4 increases stop-hunt potential. 🟣 4. Trend and Wave Structure Weekly trend: bearish Daily trend: bearish with lower highs and lower lows Wave count: Wave 1: 3,500 ➡ 3,273 Wave 2: retrace ~3,330 Wave 3: active—projected target 3,180 🟤 5. Stop Hunt Zones Above: 3,330–3,350: obvious short stops and breakout buy stops.
Below: 3,250: stop cluster from dip buyers and trapped longs. Expected Behavior: Institutions use Wednesday and low liquidity Thursday to spike stops before the real move on Friday. Stop Hunt Scenario: July 3–4: quick liquidity sweep above 3,330. July 5 (Friday): NY reopen—supply steps in, drives price back down. 🟢 6. Market Closure & Liquidity Impact NY Market Closure Schedule: July 4 (Thursday): NY COMEX metals closed for Independence Day. Forex open but liquidity ~40% of normal. Price can move erratically with minimal volume. July 3 (Wednesday): Early close in many US desks. Position squaring—thin books. July 5 (Friday): Liquidity flood back in—true directional follow-through likely. Implications: Avoid heavy positioning during July 4 closure. Expect false breakouts and “ghost candles”. Major moves likely Friday July 5 during NY session. 🟠 7. Psychological Dynamics Retail: FOMO if price spikes above 3,330 on low liquidity. Fear if price knifes under 3,250 without volume confirmation. Institutions: Use the holiday to: Clear out stops. Create liquidity pools. Accumulate positions for Friday’s push. 🔴  8. Tangible Day-Trader Scenarios 🟢 Scenario A: Pre-Holiday Stop Hunt Trap When: July 3–4 Price spikes over 3,330 on low volume. Footprint shows negative delta quickly after. Execution: Sell limit ~3,340. SL: 3,375. TP: 3,200. Note: Keep size reduced—thin conditions are volatile. 🟣 Scenario B: Post-Holiday Breakdown When: Friday July 5 NY opens, volume returns. Price fails to reclaim 3,250 after test. Execution: Sell stop 3,249. SL: 3,310. TP: 3,180. Scale in as confirmation strengthens. 🟠 Scenario C: Holiday Range When: July 4–early July 5 pre-NY Price likely ranges 3,250–3,330. Avoid entries unless volatility contraction ends with volume breakout. 🟡 9. Hypothetical Institutional Trade Plan ✅ Order Type: Sell Stop ✅ Entry: 3,249 ✅ Stop Loss: 3,310 ✅ Take Profit: 3,180 ✅ Position Size: Max 0.5–1% account risk ✅ Trigger: NY session reopens Friday with volume confirmation ✅ Confidence: 85% (post-holiday breakdowns historically have high follow-through) 🟢 10. The Executive Recap ✅ Timeframe:June 30–July 5
 ✅ Trend:Weekly/Daily bearish ✅ Volume:Negative delta clusters
 ✅ Stop Hunts: 3,330–3,350 (trap) 3,250 (flush)
 ✅ Liquidity Event:July 4 closure reduces liquidity by ~60% False moves likely Major move probable Friday NY session 
✅ Execution: Low liquidity: reduced size Confirmation: delta + volume No chasing pre-closure #GoldTrading #XAUUSD #ForexTrader #PriceActionTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #VolumeProfile #FootprintAnalysis #InstitutionalTrading #DayTrading #MarketAnalysis #ForexSignals #ComexGold #TradingStrategy #MarketPsychology #LiquidityTraps #StopHunt #NYMarketClosure #July4Trading #MetalsMarket #TrendAnalysis #WaveAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #SmartMoney #ForexEducation #CMEGroup #TradingMindset #RiskManagement ⚠️ Disclaimer : This is a purely educational scenario. You are the only one responsible for your risk.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE