5.28 Gold Market5.28 Gold Market
Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU on June 1 has turned around, and the market's concerns about previous trade uncertainties have been significantly alleviated. The positive news of the US-European negotiations has driven up European and American stock markets, and German stocks have hit a record high.
The 4-hour K-line shows that the current upward momentum of gold is weak. After probing the key resistance level, it encountered resistance and fell back. The current price is running between the middle and lower tracks of the Bollinger Bands. The overall shape of the Bollinger Bands remains stable, and there is no obvious sign of opening.
Today, it is recommended to short at high levels. Intraday support level 3288 resistance level 3330
SELL: 3330
SL: 3340
TP: 3295
Thank you for your attention. I hope my analysis can help you.
Futures market
Why I Think Gold May Buy This Week...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends,
I think Gold will continue to buy today and potentially for the rest of the week. This is only my technical analysis, so please check the news and cross-reference the indicators on your chart. Here is what I am looking at:
- The market has been pushing up since it hit a swing low at 3285
- Bullish candles are picking up momentum with Bullish engulfing on H1. This is a bullish confirmation for me
- The STOCHASTIC is facing up, the orange line (slow) is below the blue line (fast), both have crossed above 50%.
These are all bullish confirmations for me. I will setting buy stops as marked on my chart. I will set my SL at the previous low and use previous highs as my TPs. Good luck if you decide to take this trade. Let me know how it goes in the comments below.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold) Price Action📊 Technical Analysis: XAU/USD (Gold) Price Action
🕒 Timeframe: 4H (Based on candlestick structure)
📅 Published: May 27, 2025
💰 Current Price: 3,303.860
🔴 Major Resistance Zone
📍 3,480 – 3,500
📌 Seen with red arrows and price rejections.
📉 Strong selling pressure has occurred twice from this level (double top-like behavior).
❗ Until price breaks above this, bulls face a major hurdle.
🟣 Key Mid-Level Zone (S/R Flip)
📍 3,340 – 3,360
🔄 This area has flipped between support and resistance.
🔸 Price tested this level recently and pulled back (orange circle), suggesting sellers are active.
🔮 This is the pivot zone – watch for break/rejection to determine next trend leg.
🟪 Main Support Zone
📍 3,180 – 3,220
✅ Multiple bounce reactions visible (green arrows and circles).
💪 This zone has held strong; indicates solid buyer interest.
📉 If price returns here and breaks below, we could see further downside to 3,120 or lower.
🧭 Market Structure Summary
🔁 The market is in a range-bound structure between 3,220 – 3,360, with spikes towards 3,480.
🔃 The recent higher low followed by rejection at mid-resistance suggests potential distribution.
🧠 Forecast Scenarios
🔵 Bullish Scenario (Blue Path)
Break above 3,360 → Retest as support → 📈 Potential rally to 3,480
📍 Target: 3,480+
🟢 Confirmation: Strong bullish engulfing candle + volume surge
🔻 Bearish Scenario (Blue-Arrow + Orange Circle)
Rejection at current resistance → Drop toward 3,220
📍 Target: Main Support zone
❗ Watch for bearish candle pattern confirmation at 3,340
⚖️ Trading Strategy Tips
🔍 Wait for confirmation at the mid-resistance before entering.
🛡️ Place stops below support zones for long positions.
💥 Aggressive short sellers may look to enter near 3,340 with tight stops above.
🧩 Conclusion
The asset is in a critical decision zone. Whether it breaks higher toward the resistance or retraces to support will shape the next directional move. Traders should remain cautious, and let price action confirm bias before committing.
XAUUSD is testing the channel's lower boundXAUUSD is testing the ascending channel's lower bound and support at 3300. The price holds above the Ichimoku cloud with higher swings, suggesting the potential for further gains. If XAUUSD rebounds from the 3300 support, the price could extend gains toward the resistance at 3400. Conversely, a break below 3300 could prompt a deeper retracement toward the following support at 3200.
Gold prices saw a modest rebound as traders bought into recent weakness. However, gains were limited by a temporary de-escalation in US-EU trade tensions. President Trump's decision to delay the proposed 50% tariffs on EU imports until Jul 9 has given markets room to reassess near-term risk, curbing safe-haven demand.
A stronger US dollar also weighed on gold. The greenback firmed after US consumer confidence surged in May, bouncing back from near a five-year low. This makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers.
On the policy front, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari signaled a wait-and-see stance, advocating for steady rates until the inflationary effects of higher tariffs become clearer. This cautious tone adds uncertainty ahead of key data releases.
Traders now turn their attention to the Fed minutes and PCE inflation data for further cues on the Fed's rate trajectory as the potential catalysts for the next move in gold prices.
By Li Xing Gan, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness
The Ultra Idea : d-MR96nBa's Ultimate Market Journal🌌The Ultra Idea : d-MR96nBa's🌠Ultimate Market Journal🎨
Hello Fellow Travelers
It's been some time since I've posted a Fresh Idea, though I've remained actively trading.
What better way to mark my TradView return, than to start an Ultimate Market Journal.
Financial Markets have taken my deep interest again recently, especially as we seem to be at a time of accelerating change and shifting regimes.
I believe many opportunities abound to those with open, flexible and creative minds.
A bit more about myself.
I've been involved with financial markets in one form or fashion for 18 years now.
I started out like most of us, approaching the game with fundamental analysis, only to later incorporate and then fully graduate to T/A.
I'm a natural Contrarian.
My brand of technical analysis is as much about aesthetics, creative expression, discovering hidden truths and applying Universal Principles as it is running the numbers.
I'm starting this off with Ultra Bond Futures, as UB's are the trading instrument I've come to specialise in, having had the most ongoing consistent success trading.
This by no means is going to be a "I bought here and sold there" type of Journal, as that's not my style.
Nor am I going to focus on a single market instrument, observation or style of analysis.
I'd like this to become a repository of accumulated wisdom and unique market perceptives.
I've just begun contemplating what this may evolve into in time, and I invite you to join me in taking this Leap
d-MR96nBa🌌
Concept
Inversion📈📉
Seek out and analyse whatever moves exactly inverse to what you intend to trade.
If you're having trouble discerning trend or observing price patterns, check the inverse.
This can be an excellent technique for exposing Bias.
This can work particularly well for currency traders, though can be Universally applied.
For US Ultra Bonds, the inverse is the US 30 Year Yield
Ultra Bond Futures
US 30 Year Yield
Currency traders, say you're about to trade AUD/CHF
Check out the CHF/AUD chart first, if they both appear Bullish or Bearish, you've got a Bias.
AUD/CHF
CHF/AUD
GBP/JPY
JPY/GBP
EUR/USD
USD/EUR
Are there any examples of Inversion in Trading you'd like to share ?
What else is on my🧠
Well just casually, I believe we're currently witnessing Peak Bitcoin in it's entire Life-cycle.
Have we Bull Trapped & Breakaway Gapped on Berkshire Hathaway
BRK.B
It's in the Detail
Lingrid | GOLD Key SUPPORT Zone Bounce OpportunityOANDA:XAUUSD is consolidating after a rejection from the descending resistance trendline near 3345, with price now approaching the prior demand zone around 3265. If this support holds, a bullish reaction could propel price back toward the 3345–3350 zone for another retest. The broader pattern reflects a potential higher low forming against the downward trendline. A bounce here would confirm bullish interest and set the stage for continuation higher.
📈 Key Levels
Buy zone: 3265
Buy trigger: bullish reaction from support or breakout above 3300
Target: 3345
Sell trigger: break below 3265
💡 Risks
Failure to hold 3265 support could trigger sharp downside
False breakouts near 3345 remain a threat
Market-sensitive data could increase volatility
Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩💻
Trading Signals for GOLD Sell below $3,307 (6/8 Murray-21 SMA)Early in the American session, gold is trading around 3312, rebounding after reaching the bottom of the uptrend channel formed on may 14, above the 6/8 Murray level, and below the 21st SMA.
Gold made a sharp technical correction during the European session and is now consolidating above the 6/8 Murray level, suggesting a possible technical rebound in the coming hours, potentially reaching 3,327.
On the other hand, if gold maintains bullish momentum, the price could break above resistance at 3,330, and then we could expect a new bullish sequence, potentially reaching 3,437, the 8/8 Murray level.
If bearish momentum intensifies, we should expect confirmation of a sharp break below the 6/8 Murray level and consolidation below this area on the H4 chart.
Then, the outlook could be negative, and gold could quickly reach the 200 EMA around 3,251, or even reach the 5/8 Murray line around 3,203.
Gold left a gap around 3,198. Gold could close this gap if falls below the 6/8 Murray line, and it could even reach the psychological level of 3,125, which coincides with the 4/8 Murray line.
Trade Setup – May 28, 2025After reviewing today’s price action, I realized I missed the bigger move earlier due to lack of focus. The big setup was there — but we took the small one, and luckily it still gave a nice retest entry. ✅
Now here’s the main idea:
🔹 Price is approaching a major supply zone around 3320–3323 (marked with 💰).
🔹 This level lines up with:
- Asia session high
- A clean internal liquidity pocket
- Trendline resistance and minor FVG
🧠 Plan: I’ll be watching for a liquidity sweep above 3320, then look for bearish confirmation (like rejection or engulfing). If it reacts, I’m in for the short.
🎯 Targeting a drop toward the 3290–3295 zone
🛑 SL above the sweep (tight and efficient risk)
Let’s see how it plays out — execution depends on how price behaves at the zone.
Gold fluctuates upward. Waiting for a breakthrough?Since the trend of today's Asian session is a drop before an increase, and we are currently holding long orders near 3292, the trend is still looking upward. It is about to reach the resistance position near 3325 that I predicted. This is a strong and weak dividing point in the short term. Whether it can continue to break through and move upward depends on the situation in the European session. If you hold a long position, you can continue to hold it and wait for the price to break through.
For those who have not entered the market yet, you can continue to wait and see if the upper resistance level can break through strongly. The market changes drastically. I hope everyone will make a profit today.
Trading Strategy (XAUUSD) – May 27, 2025The situation unfolded after President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50% tariff on European goods starting June 1st—a move he later postponed to July 9th to allow more time for negotiations.
However, sentiment remains cautious as investors closely monitor global developments—including the growing U.S. budget deficit, ongoing trade negotiations, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine—all of which could influence gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Investors are currently awaiting the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday and the PCE inflation data on Friday for further insight into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook.
XAUUSD Trading Strategy Around Key Price Levels:
SELL XAUUSD around 3363–3365
Stoploss: 3370
Take Profit 1: 3358
Take Profit 2: 3352
Take Profit 3: 3348
BUY XAUUSD around 3326–3328
Stoploss: 3320
Take Profit 1: 3332
Take Profit 2: 3338
Take Profit 3: 3342
Note: Always set a Stoploss in all situations for safety.
Bears Win the Battle for GoldGold had been stuck between the orange downward trendline and the shorter-term upward trend channel (white), with a decisive move imminent as discussed in earlier posts. That decision now appears to favor the bears, as the upward trend channel has broken.
Following the break, gold quickly dropped to the 3,270–3,290 support zone, which is currently being tested. This zone also includes the 200-hour moving average, adding to its significance. The main support to watch is the yellow trendline visible at the bottom of the chart, which originates from late December. This trendline currently sits near 3,150 and could be the key medium-term target if bearish pressure continues.
In the shorter term, if the 3,270–3,290 zone fails to hold, the next downside target is likely 3,200.
XAUUSD H4 | Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 3323, a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit is set at 3266.73, a pullback support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss is set at 3366.41, a swing high resistance.
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Is Gold’s Recovery Pausing or Gaining Momentum?Macro approach:
- Gold rebounded sharply from mid-May lows, fueled by renewed safe-haven demand following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating.
- However, the rally lost momentum near a two-week high as profit-taking and easing US-EU trade tensions cooled demand.
- Longer-term fundamentals remain supportive, with persistent central bank buying, particularly from China, underpinning bullish sentiment.
Technical approach:
- Technically, XAUUSD broke above its descending channel and retested the breakout. The price remains range-bound between 3285 and 3560, and we await a clear breakout.
- Closing above 3560 could open to 3430.
- On the contrary, a break below 3285 risks a decline toward 3135.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
XAU/USD Bullish Reversal Setup🟢 XAU/USD Bullish Reversal Setup – Bounced from Key Demand Zone
Gold (XAU/USD) has shown a strong reaction from the $3,278–$3,285 support zone, coinciding with a visible high-volume node and prior demand area. Bullish divergence is building on the histogram, and short-term EMAs are starting to flatten, hinting at a possible intraday reversal.
📈 Entry: $3,312.10
🎯 Target: $3,400.11
🛑 Stop-Loss: $3,278.95
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.72
Key Bullish Confluences:
Price reacting from value area low
EMA compression + bullish histogram transition
High probability recovery toward $3,366 – $3,400 resistance zone
Volume gap above offering clean upside path
Gold’s Rally Faces Exhaustion: A Technical Pause or Trend ReversTVC:GOLD Gold has been on an impressive bullish run in recent months, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, inflationary concerns, and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, recent price action suggests that the trend may be entering a critical turning point. Despite strong underlying sentiment, gold has failed to set a new high—often a clear indication of trend fatigue and the potential start of a technical correction.
The inability to push beyond resistance signals that gold may be entering what market theorists refer to as an "exhaustion phase." In this phase, bullish momentum begins to slow down as the market runs out of buyers willing to chase higher prices. This often results in a pullback, not necessarily a full reversal, but a pause that allows the market to reset.
Volume dynamics also support this view. A decline in volume during recent rallies suggests waning conviction among buyers—a subtle but telling clue that demand may be weakening.
From a technical standpoint, if this pullback extends further, gold is likely to test a key structural support zone. This level has historically served as both resistance and support, making it significant not only technically but also psychologically for market participants. This area also aligns with several other technical confluences: a Fibonacci retracement zone (possibly the 38.2% or 50% level), trendline support, and even the potential completion point of a Bullish Bat harmonic pattern.
The Bullish Bat pattern, a well-known formation in harmonic trading, is especially worth noting. Based on precise Fibonacci measurements, it typically forecasts a reversal near the 88.6% retracement of the initial XA leg. When this pattern completes near major support and is accompanied by price action confirmation (e.g. bullish engulfing candle, divergence, or base-building), it can offer a high-probability setup for long entries.
However, technicals alone are not sufficient. A comprehensive view of the macroeconomic environment is essential. Several factors are in play: upcoming U.S. inflation data, evolving expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical uncertainty, and movements in real bond yields. Any of these variables can either validate or invalidate the technical setup, and traders need to stay alert to news that might affect the overall risk appetite.
From a tactical perspective, this is a time for patience. Aggressive entries without confirmation can expose traders to unnecessary risk. Waiting for clear signals near support, aligning trades with higher timeframes, and adhering to disciplined risk management will be essential for success.
In conclusion, gold is at a potential inflection point. Whether this is just a healthy correction in a broader uptrend, or the beginning of a deeper shift, remains to be seen. Both technical and fundamental perspectives are required to build a well-informed trading thesis.
I welcome your insights—whether you analyze from a chart-based or macroeconomic angle. Let’s continue the conversation, share strategies, and grow together as traders.
XAUUSD (Gold/USD) – Smart Money Setup with Key Zones & Target 🧠 Market Summary:
This chart shows a classic Smart Money Concept (SMC) play. We're looking at how big players (banks, institutions) trap retail traders, push price through liquidity zones, and move toward their real targets.
📌 Detailed Breakdown:
1️⃣ Ellipse Zone (Left Side – Accumulation Phase)
This shaded ellipse shows where price was moving sideways in a tight range. This is a classic accumulation zone, meaning big players were quietly building their long positions.
✅ Price stayed in this range from May 20–21 before breaking out with strong bullish candles.
👉 What this means: Institutions are loading up. Once they’re filled, they push price upward fast.
2️⃣ Central Zone of Market (Green Diamond)
After the breakout, price made a small pause/retest, which we marked with a green diamond.
This is a re-accumulation area—a temporary consolidation before another push up. It’s also a mid-point, showing the “central engine” of this price move.
👉 What this means: Market still bullish here, collecting more orders.
3️⃣ Major Resistance Zone (Top of Chart)
Price reached this supply zone near 3,360–3,370 and immediately faced strong rejection.
You can see:
Long wicks at the top
Bearish pressure stepping in
Start of a curve formation
👉 What this means: Big players are offloading their long positions and preparing for a reversal.
4️⃣ Rounded Top Curve (Distribution Phase)
Notice the arc shape drawn over the candles.
This is a distribution pattern — a rounding top that shows price is topping out slowly. It’s often a sign that smart money is exiting while trapping late buyers.
🔻Price then dropped aggressively, breaking structure.
5️⃣ BOS (Break of Structure)
A major bearish signal occurred here.
Price broke a recent low and created a BOS (Break of Structure) — a strong confirmation that the market has shifted from bullish to bearish.
👉 What this means: Now we look for retracement entries to go short.
6️⃣ 50% Retracement + Reversal Area
After the BOS, price pulled back to the 50% Fibonacci level and hit a small resistance zone (highlighted in purple). This is a classic area for smart entries.
✅ This level rejected price again — showing bearish confirmation.
7️⃣ Target Zone – 3,330.055
A clean, well-defined target area where:
Liquidity rests
Previous orders may get triggered
Market could react strongly
👉 If price pushes into this zone again, expect a reaction (either continuation or a reversal).
8️⃣ Support Zone – 3,290.345
This is your final support zone if the market continues to drop.
If price breaks this support, it could open room for a larger bearish move.
🎯 Trading Plan (Example):
📈 If price retraces to 3,330.055 and shows rejection → consider short setup
📉 Watch 3,290.345 for bounce or breakdown
❌ Invalidation: Break above 3,370 (major resistance)
💡 Bonus Tip – Trading Psychology:
“Smart money doesn’t chase. It waits for the trap to be set, then strikes with precision.”
Stay patient. Don’t rush entries. Let price come to your zones.
🏁 Summary:
This chart is a full example of smart money manipulation, showing:
Accumulation → Expansion → Distribution → Breakdown
BOS + 50% retrace = high-probability short
Key zones: 3,330 (Target) & 3,290 (Support)
📢 Don’t Forget:
If this analysis helped, drop a like, share, or comment your view below!
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #SmartMoney #PriceAction #TradingView #Minds #ForexStrategy #GoldSetup #SMC #LiquidityZones