GOLD GOLD take profit and 3280-3285 buy zone will be watched ,my aim is to retest 3314 broken demand floor .
the sell pressure will face a 15 min descending trendline .
china opens a new gold vault in hongkong to challenge dollar dominance
Futures market
Analysis and layout of the latest gold trends during the day📰 Impact of news:
1. PCE and Consumer Index
📈 Market analysis:
Judging from the 4H chart, the Bollinger Bands are closing and the MACD is showing a trend of forming a death cross, indicating that the short-selling momentum is still relatively strong in the short term. However, as the overall upward structure has not been destroyed, there is still a possibility of a rebound and repair in the future. During the day, we need to pay special attention to the support strength of the MA5 and MA10 moving averages. It is recommended to adopt the idea of shorting at high levels and going long at low levels. The key support below is the 3305-3295 area, and the upper resistance is the 3340-3350 range. However, judging from the chart, in the short term, there may be a rebound near 3313. At present, it has indeed rebounded to around 3319 as expected. If it falls weakly to this week's low of 3295, you can buy if it does not break. On the whole, if it rebounds to 3335-3345, you can consider shorting, and if the support below 3305-3295 is not broken, go long. Today is Friday, and as it is near the end of the month, market liquidity is strong. Please be cautious in your operations today and be sure to set stop losses strictly.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 3335-3345-3350
TP 3320-3315-3300
BUY 3305-3295
TP 3310-3320-3330
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
Gold Breaks Trendline – Deeper Correction Ahead?Gold (XAUUSD) has just broken below its short-term ascending trendline formed since mid-May. The candle closed around $3,333, confirming a bearish engulfing pattern and highlighting growing selling pressure after multiple failed attempts to reclaim the $3,383–$3,399 resistance zone (Fibonacci 0.5–0.618).
Key Levels to Watch:
- Immediate Support: $3,315 (tested twice before)
- Main Resistance: $3,383–$3,399 (Fibonacci zone)
- Major Resistance: $3,435–$3,451 (May high zone)
If $3,315 fails to hold, gold could retest $3,285–$3,270, with deeper downside toward $3,222.
Technical Overview:
- The ascending trendline is now broken.
- Bearish engulfing candlestick confirms momentum shift.
- Price rejected sharply from Fibonacci 0.618 – $3,399.
Trade Setups to Consider:
Sell Opportunity: Short near $3,360–$3,383; stop loss above $3,400; targets at $3,315 and $3,270.
Speculative Buy: Watch for reversal patterns near $3,315; stop loss below $3,300; short-term target $3,350–$3,365.
Caution: This week brings major U.S. economic events (GDP, PCE, Fed speeches). Trade reactively, manage risk tightly, and avoid overleveraging.
XAUUSD: Bearish Trend, Key Support at $3,295Market Overview
In today’s trading session (26/06/2025), XAUUSD shows continued downward momentum. Gold prices are currently hovering around $3,302.05, with a slight drop of 0.01%. The intraday price range has been tight, between $3,330.00 and $3,350.00, indicating a battle between the buyers and sellers around the short-term equilibrium zone.
Recent price action suggests that after a brief recovery, gold is once again encountering resistance at the $3,350.00 level. In the coming hours, a decisive breakout either above this resistance or below current support will dictate the market’s next move.
Key Technical Levels to Watch:
Support Levels: The first significant support is at the $3,295.37 level (50% Fibonacci retracement), with the next support at $3,296.60 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), followed by a crucial level at $3,300.56.
Resistance Levels: The primary resistance area lies around $3,350.00, with the second resistance at $3,327.72, which coincides with the 3.618 extension of the previous price swing.
Price Action Analysis
As seen in the chart, XAUUSD is currently trading below both the 50-period (blue) and 200-period (yellow) moving averages, indicating a strong bearish trend. The price action is forming a series of lower lows and lower highs, reinforcing the downtrend.
Bearish Trend Continuation: A break below the support at $3,295.37 could signal further downside towards $3,290.00 or even $3,275.00. The yellow trendline indicates the overall bearish direction, and any failure to hold above $3,300.00 could trigger additional selling pressure.
Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Price is testing the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. A rejection at these levels could cause a pullback towards lower support zones, confirming the bearish outlook for the short term.
Volume Analysis
The volume chart shows relatively low volatility, with decreasing volume during the price pullbacks. This suggests that there is not enough buying interest to push the price higher, and the market may be more inclined towards bearish continuation in the near term.
Market Sentiment
Currently, the market is undecided. The recent price action suggests that traders are waiting for a confirmation of direction. The next few hours are critical in determining if the downtrend will continue or if we will see a short-term bounce at one of the key support levels.
Trading Strategy
Short Position: A break below $3,295.37 would be an excellent opportunity to short XAUUSD with a target at $3,290.00, and further down to $3,275.00.
Long Position: Only consider long positions if XAUUSD manages to break above $3,350.00 decisively, with the next target near $3,375.00.
Conclusion
XAUUSD remains under pressure, and unless there’s a strong reversal at support levels, the bearish momentum could continue in the short term. Traders should monitor the key levels mentioned above closely to adjust positions accordingly.
Gold is a "BUY" @ Market Sentiment $3295 Market Sentiment
Forex market sentiment can be measured using various tools and indicators. One of the most popular methods of measuring sentiment is using sentiment indicators. These indicators provide insights into market sentiment , such as the percentage of traders who are bullish or bearish on a particular currency.
Forex Sentiment
One of the main advantages of using forex sentiment analysis is that it can help traders make more informed trading decisions. By understanding the overall sentiment of the market, traders can better anticipate price movements, identify potential trading opportunities, and manage risk more effectively.
What is Forex Sentiment?
Forex Sentiment is the feeling or perception of market participants towards a currency pair. It is an essential aspect of forex trading, as it plays a crucial role in determining the direction of the market. Forex sentiment is driven by a wide range of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, news events, and market trends.
While there are various methods of measuring sentiment, traders should use sentiment analysis in conjunction with other technical and fundamental analysis tools to make informed trading decisions.
Gold Trading Strategy June 26✏️ D1 candle shows a recovery but not significantly. Gold is currently reacting at the key resistance zone of 3342.
The immediate support zone that the price is heading toward is 3326. This forms a breakout range between 3326 and 3342.
A bullish channel may form if there is a strong price reaction at 3326. Conversely, if 3326 is broken, it could confirm a continuation of the downtrend targeting 3302 during the European and US sessions today. The bearish target could even extend to 3278.
📈 Key Levels
Breakout Range: 3326 - 3342
Support: 3326 - 3314 - 3302 - 3278
Resistance: 3342 - 3363 - 3388
📊 Recommended Trade Setups
BUY: 3302–3300 | SL: 3297
SELL: 3363–3365 | SL: 3369
XAUUSD GOLD buy holdXAUUSD GOLD BUY NOW – LONG TRADE SETUP ACTIVE 🟡📈
Gold has pulled back to a key support area and is now showing signs of strength at the current price of $3301.
This zone is acting as a strong base for buyers, signaling a potential bullish continuation in the coming sessions.
We are entering a LONG position with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, supported by market structure and technical confirmation.
🔹 Current Price: $3301
🎯 Target Levels: First target at $3350, extended target at $3400+
🛑 Stop Loss: Recommended below $3275 to protect capital
As long as price holds above the support zone, bulls remain in control.
Patience, discipline, and proper risk management are key — let the trend do the work.
Gold is poised for upside — time to ride the wave!
Gold LongsBullish weekly bias for Gold.
Classic Expansion Weekly profile in play. Price opened lower first, Im treating this as the possible manipulation for the week. Tuesday swept key ssl and closed back inside the range.
Drop to a 4h and OB is confirmed. 1h CISD aligned with 4h. Execution off 4h OB with stop at OB Low / Tuesday low. If BSL is the draw, I would like to see Tuesday low be protected.
LRLR is first low hanging fruit objective. 3420 roughly, with equal highs at 3476 being final target.
6.27 Risk aversion dissipates and gold prices adjust! The range As the Middle East war came to an end, the risk aversion sentiment in the global financial market subsided, the risk aversion funds dissipated, and the three major bullish markets of gold, crude oil, and silver all fell downward; at the same time, the US dollar index broke a new low !
Fundamentals:
1: The Middle East war has been temporarily paused, and both sides have entered the adjustment phase; however, irreconcilable contradictions may become the starting point of the next war at any time; although it has ended for now, we must not slack off. Once the two sides are on the verge of a war again, risk aversion will sweep the world again; this is not impossible;
This Middle East war came suddenly and ended suddenly; it was like a child's play washing the global financial market; therefore, the possibility of a resumption of war cannot be ruled out in the future;
At present, in the overall market:
1: In the short cycle, the gold price fluctuates downward, so in the short term, the short-term decline is seen, and the fluctuation is downward;
2: In terms of trend, the range is temporarily contracted, the BOLL of the daily K is contracted, the speed slows down, and the overall range is back to the range of fluctuations; there is no obvious long and short trend, and it returns to the range of fluctuations;
Today's technical trend chart:
1: In 4 hours, the stochastic indicator crosses downward, which is a main empty signal; in terms of form, it is temporarily under pressure from the central axis track of the 4-hour BOLL, and the empty trend continues downward, and the form tends to continue to oscillate downward; therefore, it is recommended to choose the high-altitude approach for 4 hours;
2: In the daily K, the stochastic indicator continues to cross downward, which is a empty signal; in terms of form, it is temporarily a broken Yin and Yang pattern, with no obvious trend; BOLL forms a contraction, the range of 3417-3277, the range is mainly in an oscillating trend, and the strong and weak dividing point is near 3347;
Comprehensive: The daily K is mainly in an oscillating trend, so it is recommended to deal with it according to the oscillating trend, choose to buy low and sell high; the reference pressure position is near 3347, the support position is near 3295 and 3278; the second pressure position is 3390-3400 pressure position; continue to choose the oscillating approach, and play a oscillating treatment of buying low and selling high;
XAUUSD DAILY, TRIPLE TOP? DIVERGENCE VOLUME?Hello everyone, how are you?
How’s your day going?
Let’s talk about XAUUSD on the Daily timeframe.
As we can see, XAUUSD has attempted several times to break out from the TRIPLE TOP trendline,
but it hasn’t been successful. Looking at the volume, there is no increase in buying—
on the contrary, there’s an increase in selling volume, which can be considered a FAKE OUT.
So, in my opinion, XAUUSD has the potential to return to the support area,
around the psychological level of $3,300 - $3,000,
or as shown in the chart, a weekly candle closed with high volume.
Well, that’s my take. Good luck!
Remember, trading carries high risk—don’t be reckless.
Waiting for the best opportunity is never a bad idea, right?
Gold Falls After Rejection at 3350 – Eyes on Short-Term Pullback📊 Market Drivers:
• Gold spiked to $3,350/oz early in the day but later dropped to $3,310/oz as profit-taking kicked in and U.S. yields recovered slightly.
• Market is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of PCE inflation data on Friday, limiting upside momentum late in the session.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key resistance: $3,345–3,350 (daily high)
• Nearest support: $3,310 – session low; then $3,290
• EMA09: Price trading above EMA09, but below EMA21, signaling a neutral bias
• Candle/momentum: Formed shooting star reversal near $3,348 on H1 with declining volume → short-term weakness ahead
📌 Outlook:
Gold may pull back toward $3,300–3,290 short-term if USD rebounds and selling persists. But medium-term bullish bias remains if inflation data disappoints and USD continues weakening.
💡 Trade Ideas:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: 3,335–3,345
🎯 TP: 3,315
❌ SL: 3,352
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: 3,295–3,305
🎯 TP: 3,315
❌ SL: 3,285
When Wave 3 Extends to 3.618×✅ What It Means
• Wave 3 has extended to 3.618× the length of Wave 1, which is a very strong impulsive wave.
• This often indicates high momentum and strong underlying trend (usually confirmed with high volume).
• It’s a classic sign of an extended wave structure — common in high-volatility, trend-driven markets.
⸻
🔄 Wave 4 Retracement Behavior
In such cases, Wave 4 tends to be shallow, both in price and time. Here’s what we know:
🔍 Typical Wave 4 Retracement When Wave 3 = 3.618 × Wave 1:
Type
Typical Behavior
Depth (Fibonacci)
0.236 to 0.382 of Wave 3
Time
Often longer than Wave 2
Form
Often sideways: triangle, flat
Probability of Deep Retrace
Low (< 25%)
So when Wave 3 is extended, Wave 4 usually does not retrace deeply.
📊 Historical/Educated Probability Estimate
Event
Probability
Wave 3 extends to 3.618× Wave 1
~10–15% of impulsive wave cases
Wave 4 retraces shallowly (0.236–0.382)
~70–80% in extended Wave 3
Wave 4 retraces deeply (>0.5)
~10–15% (rare, usually corrective failure)
So:
🧠 If Wave 3 is extended (3.618×), there is ~70–80% chance that Wave 4 will be shallow and not violate Wave 1 top.
📌 Summary
• ✅ Wave 3 extended to 3.618× implies strong trend
• ✅ Wave 4 likely shallow (0.236–0.382 retrace)
• ❌ Deep retrace into Wave 1 territory is unlikely unless structure is failing
GOLD IDEA - Could we see gold end lower this week?Gold is clearly creating lower lows & lower highs. We've also measured with our fib and we are sitting in our 50-60% zone! We've identified our bearish engulfings on the 1hr, 30 mins, & 15 min time frame. Everything is aligning, our final step is waiting for our ctl to break then scaling into our position slowly.
Gold shorting opportunity not to be missedGold hit the key resistance of 3350 and then fell under pressure, reaching a low of 3309, and was temporarily supported by the low point on Wednesday. The intraday showed a pattern of rapid decline after a volatile rise, highlighting the long-short tug-of-war pattern. The hourly line fell again after a pullback to 3328, indicating that there is still room for short-term retracement. The current operation needs to focus on key points: short orders can be entered again near the pullback of 3328-3335. If the market continues to decline, focus on the support range of 3300-3290, and long orders can be arranged if it stabilizes. The overall idea of oscillation is maintained. Before effectively breaking through 3350 or losing 3290, high-altitude and low-long are still the main strategy.
Gold recommendation: short near 3328-3335, target 3315-3305
Bulls and bears are anxious? Rebound continues to empty📰 Impact of news:
1. Initial unemployment claims data
📈 Market analysis:
Gold is in a sideways consolidation near 3320 in the short term. The market has no clear direction for the time being, and the long and short positions are in a tug-of-war. The hourly line rebounded to 3328 and then fell back again, suggesting that there is still room for short-term retracement. The current operation needs to focus on key points: if it rebounds to the 3320-3330 resistance area, you can consider entering short positions again. If the market continues to decline, focus on the 3300-3290 support range. If it stabilizes, long orders can be arranged. The overall idea is to maintain a volatile market. Before effectively breaking through 3350 or falling below 3290, high-altitude and low-multiple is still the main strategy.
🏅 Trading strategies:
SELL 3320-3330
TP 3310-3300-3290
BUY 3310-3300
TP 3320-3330-3340
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
The idea of oscillating crude oil
💡Message Strategy
Asia's crude oil imports hit a record high in recent years
In the first half of 2025, Asia's crude oil imports showed a significant increase. The average daily import volume in Asia reached 27.36 million barrels, an increase of 620,000 barrels from 26.74 million barrels in the same period last year, an increase of about 2.3%. The highlight of this growth was concentrated in June, when Asia's crude oil arrivals soared to 28.65 million barrels/day, setting a record high since January 2023, far exceeding 27.3 million barrels/day in May and 26.42 million barrels/day in June last year.
Import boom driven by price
What drove the surge in Asian crude oil imports in June? The answer has a lot to do with price. China and India are known to be extremely sensitive to crude oil price fluctuations, usually increasing imports when prices are low and choosing to shrink when prices are high. Crude oil arriving in June is usually scheduled six to eight weeks in advance of delivery, which means that these cargoes were purchased when oil prices were low in April and May.
Geopolitics and market uncertainty
The sharp fluctuations in oil prices in June are inseparable from the fueling of geopolitics. Israel's military action against Iran and the subsequent intervention of the United States once pushed crude oil prices to a five-month high. After Trump announced the ceasefire agreement, the market risk premium quickly subsided, but geopolitical uncertainty is still an important variable affecting oil prices. In the future, any new geopolitical events may push up oil prices again, which will further pressure Asia's import demand.
📊Technical aspects
The short-term trend of crude oil (1H) continues to fluctuate in a narrow range, with a small fluctuation. The oil price repeatedly crosses the moving average system, and the short-term objective trend direction fluctuates. The momentum is stalemate between long and short positions, and it is expected that the trend of crude oil will maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern during the day.
However, crude oil is never that simple. It is greatly affected by international trends. At present, crude oil is still waiting for direction. So how can we obtain greater future returns in a volatile market?
The answer is simple. At this time, what we need to do is to use a small stop loss to leverage large returns within the pressure and support range.
💰Strategy Package
Short Position：67.00-67.20，SL：67.80，Target: 64.50-63.50/60.00
Long Position:64.00-64.20，SL：63.50，Target: 65.50-66.50/70.00
XAUUSDTHE united state interest rate stands at 4.25%-4.5%
the US10Y open the day at 4.293% and closes 4.26% a significant drop from may high of 4.62%
the dollar index is heading to 96$ after open 97.611$ to close 97.313$.
Final GDP q/q
Actual: -0.5%
Forecast: -0.2%
Previous: -0.2%
The US economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than the expected 0.2% decline, indicating a sharper slowdown than anticipated.
2. Unemployment Claims
Initial Claims: 236,000
Forecast: 244,000
Previous: 245,000
Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than forecast and near historically low levels, suggesting that layoffs remain relatively subdued despite economic challenges.
3. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Actual: +0.5%
Forecast: +0.1%
Previous: +0.2%
Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose 0.5% month-over-month, beating expectations and signaling some resilience in business investment.
4. Durable Goods Orders m/m
Actual: +16.4%
Forecast: +8.6%
Previous: -6.3%
Total durable goods orders surged 16.4%, a strong rebound following a prior decline, indicating a pickup in demand for long-lasting manufactured goods.
5. Final GDP Price Index q/q
Actual: 3.7%
This measure of inflation in the GDP deflator remains elevated, reflecting persistent price pressures in the economy.
Summary of Market Implications:
The larger-than-expected GDP contraction signals economic weakness, which could increase expectations for accommodative Fed policy.
The drop in initial jobless claims supports the view that layoffs are limited, but rising continuing claims suggest some labor market softness ahead.
Strong durable goods orders point to underlying business investment strength, providing a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook.
Elevated inflation as shown by the GDP price index keeps inflation concerns alive.
Overall, the data presents a complex picture of a slowing economy with pockets of resilience and ongoing inflationary pressures
the interest rate remains 4.24%-4.5% ,the bond market remain weak on fiscal policy challenges and pending rate outlook.
the 10 year bond yield is trading around 4.291% -4.26% and edge lower from fundamental outlook.
gold on ascending trendline connecting April till June and found support at 3312-3314.
buyers during newyork session will build momentum on technical to bridge 3350 supply .
break below 3311-3314 will heading to my demand floor .
Gold Slips Deeper – Bears in Full ControlGold extended its losing streak to a sixth straight day, sliding closer to the critical $3,300 level as a rebounding US dollar and Powell’s cautious tone dampen market sentiment.
Technically, the breakdown below the short-term ascending channel has validated a bearish structure. Daily chart indicators are turning decisively negative, suggesting the path of least resistance is still to the downside.
Unless a fresh risk event triggers safe-haven demand, any bounce from here may simply offer sellers a better price to re-enter. The downtrend is in motion — and it’s gaining steam.
Gold to $3,600? Hey traders! Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) is back in the spotlight — not just for its shine, but because macro and technical signals are starting to align again.
Why gold still matters?
The US Dollar is weakening as markets expect the Fed to cut rates later this year.
Geopolitical tensions (like Iran–Israel) are still lurking despite temporary ceasefires.
Central banks are buying gold heavily — a clear long-term signal.
📈 Technically speaking:
Gold remains in a long-term uptrend.
Weekly EMAs are pointing upward.
Strong support sits around $3,260–$3,300.
A break above $3,440 could push prices toward $3,600 in the coming months.
💡 My take & strategy:
As a gold trader for 7 years, I always allocate part of my portfolio to long-term gold exposure.
“You don’t need to dig for gold — just wait for the market to sleep, then strike.” 😄
📌 Trade plan:
Buy on dips near $3,280–$3,300
Target: $3,480 – $3,600
What’s your take? Is gold still worth holding — or is it time to chase other trades? Let’s discuss below! 👇
2025.06.27 Range | Anticipate without expectation of FridayOANDA:XAUUSD
Range Trading Series | 4H TF – 2025.06.27 Update
Yesterday’s trading range held to the dot , with price failing to break through 3355 , the prior swing pivot. A second upside attempt stalled, leading to a short-lived retracement from 3313 to 3336 . NYSE then moved below 3329 POC , closing at 3327 , reinforcing bearish bias beneath immediate resistance at 3342 .
Today, the 4H trading range remains boxed between 3329–3313 . The next 4H bar of the Asian session will offer clearer directional intent if price retests 3313 .
Sell Bias:
Below 3329 , anticipate downside continuation after a clean retest of 3313 .
Watch PA at:
3303 → 3297 → 3290 → 3281 → 3276 → 3267
Buy Bias:
Rebound above 3313 following a failed breakdown.
PA watch levels:
3319 → 3328 → 3330 → 3333 → 3335 → 3342 → 3348 → 3355 → 3366 → 3375 → 3386 → 3390 → 3400 → 3403 → 3408 → 3417 → 3423
Micro-range Watch:
3326 → 3322 → 3316 → 3313
If price closes above 3322 on the 4H and the next candle confirms, it signals a potential sentiment shift .
Continue monitoring PA at key levels.
Anticipate (not expect) short-cycle directional moves outside the micro-range before real flow materializes— patience remains tactical .
Chart Reference
CONTINUED GROWTH OR A BREAK DOWN?GOLD 4H TIMEFRAME
Currently on a major support level, if it breaks down at 3284, we can target these previous support levels at 3264 and 3250. Always wait for a retest before entering to confirm that it is not a fake out.
On the other hand, if this bounce and consolidate above 3350 levels, then we have a probability of a continued growth to 3400 and 3440. If the ceasefire got violated and FED hints of a rate cut, 3500 is not just a possibility, it can go higher and make new highs.
When entering trades look for opportunity on lower timeframes like M1, M5 and M15. When analyzing the general direction and bias, it's best to check high timeframes H1, H4 and D1.
Gold idea Gold looking for crt to play out on today’s market 🙏👊🏻🤩and wait for confirmation before entering
