Futures market
Potential BullsThe Market looks to have played out a perfect AB=CD, and the price is responding well well, now considering the EW principles, we think the market is in the 4th wave of a Submicro wave. We think the price is heading upstairs to complete leg/wave 5 of the same degree.
Until then, trade using your tested strategies and this is just an insight and not a trading/investment advice.
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Gold price life and death line: 3280Gold price life and death line: 3280
Core viewpoint:
As shown in the figure:
Large cycle triangle oscillation pattern: Gold price oscillates in a large range of 3120-3500
Small cycle focus: 3280-3365 range breakthrough direction.
Intraday long and short watershed:
Key resistance above: 3325 (if broken, it will turn strong to 3345-3365)
Life and death line below: 3280 (if broken, it will open the downward space to 3260-3220)
Operation tone: mainly looking for high prices to short, but beware of large sideways consolidation and repeated bottoming rebound.
Technical analysis
Daily chart:
Yesterday's big Yinxian recovered, but did not effectively fall below the low point of last Friday's big Yangxian (3287 points), indicating that the 3280 point area support is strong.
MACD has a dead cross. If it falls below the 3280 middle track support, it may accelerate downward to 3160-3170.
4-hour chart:
Pressure level: 3320-3326 (middle track), support level: 3284-3270 (lower track + MA60).
It is necessary to observe whether a low-level golden cross rebound is formed, or whether a dead cross continues.
Hourly chart:
The short-term range is compressed to 3290-3313, and a breakout of 3315 may test the 3330 pressure level.
Trading strategy
Short selling opportunity (main strategy)
Ideal entry point: 3320-3325 area (Monday low + European session rebound high), stop loss is set above 3335.
Target: 3295→3280 (break through and hold to 3250-3220).
Radical temptation: If the Asian and European sessions rebound to around 3315 and are under pressure, you can try to short with a light position (stop loss 3325).
Long defense
Conditions: 3280-3285 area has not been broken, and there are stabilization signals on the hourly chart (such as a long lower shadow).
Short-term long opportunities: 3290-3295 light position long, stop loss set below 3280, target 3310-3320 (quick entry and exit).
Follow-up strategy after breakthrough:
Break through 3325 points: follow up long at 3315 points, target 3345-3365 points.
Fall below 3280: Rebound to 3290 short, target 3250-3220.
Risk control tips:
Big sweep characteristics: avoid chasing up and down, wait for key positions to be confirmed before entering the market.
Event risk: Pay attention to the Fed's policy expectations, geopolitical situation and US dollar trends.
Summary: Gold will fluctuate and bearish in the short term, and 3280 is the life and death line. As long as the gold price is below 3325, a high-price short-selling strategy will be adopted.
Gold 3315 gains and losses are the key
📌 Driving events
From the news perspective, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that U.S. durable goods orders in April plunged 6.3% month-on-month, with an expected value of -7.8% and a previous value revised from 9.20% to 7.50%. Volatile commercial aircraft orders plunged 51.5% in April after rising in March. Boeing said it received only eight aircraft orders in April, the lowest since May 2024, far lower than the 192 orders in March, the highest since 2023. Affected by the sharp drop in commercial aircraft orders, U.S. durable goods orders fell more than expected in April, with core capital goods orders (excluding aircraft and military hardware) falling 1.3%, the biggest drop since October last year. Under the influence of uncertainty in tariffs and tax policies, corporate investment willingness is weakening.
Through the data, it is not difficult to find that American companies have shown obvious caution in assessing the demand outlook and have shifted their focus to cost reduction, which directly reflects the impact of uncertainty brought about by Trump's trade policy. At the same time, the tax legislation being debated in Congress has also put companies on the sidelines, further suppressing the impulse to invest.
📊Comment Analysis
After the pullback on Monday this week, the decline accelerated on Tuesday, and the continuous decline came back, changing the strong upward trend of last week
💰Strategy Package
In terms of operation, in the short term, long and short operations can be carried out in the range of 3315-3297 US dollars, and the support position of 3285/80 should be paid attention to below; medium and long-term investors can buy on dips and take advantage of geopolitical risks and the trend of weak US dollars to gradually establish long positions.
⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds
- Choose the number of lots that matches your funds
- Profit is 4-7% of the fund account
- Stop loss is 1-3% of the fund account
Bullish bounce off 38.2% Fibonacci support?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the pullback resistance.
Pivot: 3,262.87
1st Support: 3,208.70
1st Resistance: 3,360.90
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
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XAUUSD MARKET OUTLOOK – MAY 28, 2025Gold is currently sitting at a critical decision zone, testing the trendline and potential breaker structure after failing to break the Previous Day High (PDH) and reacting from Order Point (OP).
🔍 Key Observations:
Price rejected from PDH + OP zone with a clean bearish reaction.
Now sitting on a key ascending trendline and the Previous Day Low (PDL).
Structural Support Sweep (SSS) remains a major clue that downside may not be over.
If price confirms breakdown below PDL + Trendline, expect price to reach 3290, followed by 3270 and even Recent Broken Resistance zone near 3250.
📌 Bias: Bearish
📈 Trigger: Break and retest of trendline + PDL
📉 Target Zones:
– TP1: 3290
– TP2: 3270
– TP3: 3250
💡 Key Note for Chart Watchers:
Watch for fakeouts around 3330–3345. Confirmation comes only on solid 15min close below PDL and failure to reclaim OP zone.
🕰️ Let NY session provide final direction – this setup builds anticipation.
Market next move 🚨 Disruptive Take on the Current Silver-CFD Setup (1 h)
⚠️ Key Issue Why It Undermines the Long-Target Thesis
1. Target looks “wishful” The arrow projects a move into the 33.55–33.60 zone without price ever clearing the nearest resistance band around 33.30–33.35. A premature target can bait traders into chasing the tail end of a relief rally.
2. Volume doesn’t back the bounce Notice how the big green climb out of the pit on the 27 th started on strong volume, but the last 10–12 candles show shrinking green bars. Demand is decaying as price inches higher—a classic recipe for a bull trap.
3. Momentum is stalling The most recent candle printed red right at the dotted mid-line, hinting at exhaustion. Without a fresh momentum kick (e.g., higher high ➜ bullish engulfing), upside continuation is statistically fragile.
4. Structure still favors lower highs The broader pattern since the 25–26 th is a series of lower swing-highs. Until that diagonal is broken decisively, every uptick remains a counter-trend bounce, not a new up-trend.
5. Macro landmine ahead The U.S. flag icon marks an impending data release. Silver’s intraday volatility tends to spike on USD events; any dollar strength could instantly unwind the thin-volume rise. Trading into news with no contingency ≠ smart risk.
6. Stop-loss placement is unclear Without a clearly defined invalidation level (e.g., below 33.00 or under the 27 th swing-low), the R-R profile is lopsided: limited upside room vs. plenty of air underneath.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/28/2025 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2025
- PR High: 21480.00
- PR Low: 21453.50
- NZ Spread: 59.5
Key scheduled economic events:
14:00 | FOMC Meeting Minutes
Follow-through on daily print value increase rotation
- Closing in on 21600 front run pivot from previous week
Session Open Stats (As of 12:15 AM 5/28)
- Session Open ATR: 450.12
- Volume: 19K
- Open Int: 274K
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From BA ATH: -5.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 22096
- Mid: 20383
- Short: 19246
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
Market next move 🚨 Disruption Analysis of the Gold CFD Chart
1. Over-Optimistic Target Placement
The target is placed significantly above the current market trend without substantial confirmation of a reversal.
The recent bullish candles are weak and not supported by volume spikes.
There's a bearish engulfing pattern forming, suggesting a possible continuation of the downtrend.
2. Weak Volume Confirmation
The rise in price does not coincide with a strong increase in buying volume.
Volume bars are mixed and not clearly favoring buyers, indicating market indecision rather than strength.
3. False Bottom Assumption
The assumption that the market has bottomed on the 27th is speculative.
Without a double-bottom pattern or significant bullish divergence on an RSI/MACD (not shown here), the upward bias is unjustified.
4. Price Action Breakdown
Lower highs and lower lows are still visible.
The short bounce could be a retracement rather than a trend reversal.
5. Macro or Fundamental Events Ignored
Given the presence of the US flag icon (economic event), any upcoming data release (like GDP, interest rates, etc.) could drastically alter market direction.
Trading before news without adjusting targets and stops is risky.
GOLD GOLD ,the ema+sma +market structure strategy has given us a buy confirmation on 4hrs close ,i will monitor the current break of 3300 level for another 400pips drop ,but should that demand floor at 3289-3300 hold firmly, they could challenge the supply roof on demand and supply impulse strength, if they break asian session supply roof then london into newyork will look for buy opportunity in other to challenge the long descending trendline connect 3500,3457 and 3365 for a long swing into 3445 zone or more.
the dxy is doing exactly what we want to see,if dollar reclaims 100$ this time around ,they will rally on demand to correct oversold market which will cause Gold price to drop on probability.
CME Futures PREMIUM —Bitcoin Will Continue To GrowThe PREMIUM between Bitcoin's CME Futures and spot price is still on. This means that Bitcoin continues bullish.
In a previous article, I used this signal to predict a bullish breakout and bullish continuation. When there is a bullish bias Bitcoin becomes more expensive on CME vs spot, it means buy demand is very strong. With a strong demand for Bitcoin from the public, prices continue to grow.
There is a huge difference between the double top in 2021 and the chart structure in 2025.
The double top in 2021 came out of a 5-up waves pattern. The current top comes out of a 7 months long consolidation phase. Based on Elliotts law of alternation, the bull market will end in a blow off top in 2025 rather than a double top. This means that we will see one final and very strong move up followed by a crash, and that's how the bull market will end. Think of 2017/2018 and you can get a perfect picture of how the bull market will end. The only question that remains is about how far up prices will go, will the bullish wave end at $157,425 or will it go to $211,855?
Six months is enough to reach the second target.
This is a friendly reminder.
Bitcoin will continue to grow.
Namaste.
/GC GC1! GOLD Futures (GCM2025) – An Analysis by WaverVanir DSSThis setup presents a potential bearish scenario underpinned by Smart Money Concepts, volume analysis, and structure invalidation at premium zones.
🔍 Key Technical Highlights:
Weak High in Premium Zone:
Price failed to convincingly break above the last swing high, forming a weak high.
Rejection from this premium supply area indicates a lack of bullish follow-through.
Change of Character (CHoCH) → Bearish Bias:
Recent CHoCH printed after a bullish BOS earlier in the structure.
Suggests potential shift from bullish structure to distribution phase.
Volume Analysis:
Volume is declining on bullish candles while spiking on red – early distribution signal.
Imbalance zones remain unfilled.
Target Zones:
📌 Equilibrium Zone ~ $3,040–$3,080.
📌 Secondary Demand Zones: $2,960 and $2,880.
Stronger demand and liquidity pockets rest lower, potentially magnetizing price.
📉 Probabilistic Forecast:
🔻 65% chance of retracement to equilibrium zone within the next 5–10 sessions.
🔺 35% chance of bullish invalidation if price reclaims and closes above $3,350.
🔄 Strategy Idea (Not Financial Advice):
Look for confirmation of lower highs or liquidity grabs around $3,310–$3,330 for potential short entries.
Tight stop above weak high; target near equilibrium.
📊 Powered by: WaverVanir DSS | SMC | Volume Imbalances | Order Flow Bias
#GoldFutures #SMC #VolumeProfile #TradingView #WaverVanir #AlgoTrading #MacroTA
XAUUSD Bearish setup trade for coming weekThis chart outlines a bearish trading setup for gold (XAU/USD) after a strong rally toward resistance. Here's a breakdown of the setup and what to watch:
📉 Bearish Setup Explained
: Price recently tested the resistance at $3,370 and showed signs of rejection.
: A correction move is projected with targets set at:
: TP1: $3,300–$3,310 (first support/test zone)
: TP2: $3,250 (deeper support zone)
⚠️Breakout Condition:
The note says:
> The market will range in this area; if it breaks $3,300, we can consider more bearish move.
> This implies that $3,300 is a critical level — a close below this confirms further downside momentum.
🔍 Key Zones
: Resistance Zone: $3,370
: Sell TP1 Zone: $3,300–$3,310
: Key Breakdown Area: $3,300
: Sell TP2: $3,250
: Major Support Below: Around $3,200–$3,210
🔄 Range Possibility
> If the price doesn't break $3,300 decisively, expect sideways movement between $3,310–$3,330.
> Only a clear break and retest below $3,300 should trigger continuation toward $3,250 and potentially to $3,210–$3,200 support.
Selling pressure, gold price continues to fall below 3285?⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices declined by nearly 2% on Monday, slipping below the $3,300 mark, as investor sentiment improved following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone tariffs on European Union imports. The renewed risk appetite, coupled with a modest rebound in the U.S. Dollar from last week’s losses, placed pressure on the non-yielding precious metal.
The move came after a weekend call between President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, which resulted in the U.S. deferring the planned 50% tariffs on EU goods until July 9. The development eased global trade concerns, prompting a shift away from safe-haven assets—excluding the Greenback—and helped propel global equity markets higher.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Accumulated price zone around 3300, under selling pressure, mainly waiting for important economic news this week: GDP, FOMC
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone : 3363- 3365 SL 3370
TP1: $3352
TP2: $3340
TP3: $3325
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3266- $3268 SL $3261
TP1: $3277
TP2: $3286
TP3: $3300
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
XAUUSD – Holding the channel, eyeing a bounceGold is still trading within a rising channel, recently touching the confluence support zone of the trendline, the 89 EMA, and the demand area around 3,287. This level has seen strong reactions in the past – and if price holds here again, a bounce toward the 3,382 zone is highly likely.
Supporting factor: Market sentiment remains cautious after Moody’s emphasized the risks surrounding U.S. public debt, putting pressure on the USD and boosting gold’s appeal. In addition, investors are closely watching the upcoming U.S. Core PCE data later this week – a key factor that could influence Fed rate cut expectations.
Suggested scenario: Favor buying if the price holds above 3,287, targeting 3,382 – the upper boundary of the channel. If this fails, selling pressure may return.
Will the gold market usher in a new trend?The Trump administration postponed the imposition of a 50% tariff on the European Union and extended the implementation date to July 9. This unexpected decision became the fuse for the violent market fluctuations. The European Union responded positively, and the US-EU trade negotiations ushered in a buffer period, but the global market has been affected, and the gold market has fallen into a dilemma of long and short interweaving.
On Tuesday, the overall gold price showed a downward trend. The price rose to $3,349.85 on the day, and the lowest price reached $3,285.21, closing at $3,300.4. After the opening of the US market, the price fluctuated upward in the short term, and the price ended in a big negative on the day. It is not suitable to be bearish at present before the price falls below the daily support.
From the daily level, the current daily level support is around $3,275, and the price may fluctuate upward above this position. At the same time, from the four-hour level, yesterday's price fell below the four-hour support of $3,320, and then continued to fall below the important support position of $3,300 on the daily line; and the short-term pressure is relatively large, so it is necessary to pay attention to the 3275-3320 range for the time being; this fluctuation range is also the middle area between the 5-day MA moving average and the 10MA moving average, and the price will continue after breaking through the range.
Operation strategy:
Scalping transactions are carried out in the fluctuation range of $3,290-3,315.
Quaid reminds all traders: You need to always pay attention to the direction of price trends, take profits in time, and avoid losses caused by unexpected events affecting price trends.
Gold Long: Target $3349I updated the wave structure for Gold and point out that the previous short call plays out perfectly with pinpoint accuracy. Now, we have started a new cycle level wave 5 and we just just completed wave 1 and 2 of a minute level. I proposed how the Gold price will unfold in this primary wave 1 of cycle wave 5.
I propose 2 stops:
Non-Active Trader: $3283
Active Trader: $3296
1st Take Profit level: $3249.
Good luck!