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Probabilistic thinking. Using Technical logic to get odds.Markets are simple if you think about it. moderate and long range resistance -- is the best odds for rally. "horizontal" or 50-50 supports -- risky. steep supports mean high demand, strong trends. Buying at such supports, at worst it bounces to the upside. (High market with strong trend can mean reversals) rule: break outs always must coincide with 200dma rallies. Bonus. High market, strong trend -- best odds for reversal . 50-50 resistance, with weak support --> trickster market. (trap) strong trend but no flying 200dma --> trap. 50-50 resistance with strong trend, high market, but weak 200dma ---> good odds for reversal. keeping it simple. P.S. this method shows why odds favor BTC reversal . Or why 110/120k had to be peak point. for now.
CME:BTC1!Education
by citsvar
Wave 4 Triangle or Running Flat? Key Levels to Watch!As seen in the chart, I'm tracking a potential Wave 4 triangle forming in gold. The price action has respected the A-B-C-D-E structure so far, suggesting that consolidation might be nearing completion before a breakout into Wave 5. However, if the price breaks above Wave D's high prematurely, this would invalidate the triangle and suggest that Wave 4 already ended as a running flat, meaning we may already be in the early stages of Wave 5. Key Levels to Watch: 🔹 Resistance: – The triangle scenario is invalid if the price breaks above this level without completing Wave E. 🔹 Support Zone: – Holding above this would strengthen the case for a triangle breakout. 🔹 Invalidation: A strong impulse below the support zone could indicate a deeper correction instead of Wave 5 beginning. If the triangle holds, we could see one more touch of support before Wave 5 extends higher. Otherwise, the market may already be heading up in a more aggressive move. Which scenario do you think will play out? Drop your thoughts below!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ElliottWaveFxMajors
2025-02-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Bears started the day very bearish and printed decent bear bars down to 22200 but bears failed to find sellers below 22130 and we went sideways 22100-22200 until we saw bigger buying coming through again and bears gave up late into the day. Bulls closed it between Friday’s close and today’s open, so the day was neutral as can be. Bears failed to get down to 22k which is my line in the sand for them. We have to expect higher prices, given that this was a shallow sideways correction on the daily chart. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22100 - 22500 bull case: Bulls happily buying every dip and bears could not even touch the breakout price of 22094 (January high). Can only see today’s price action as bullish and on the 4h chart it’s a two-legged pullback to the 20ema with a decent buy signal bar now. Longs with stop 22090 are reasonable for target 22450+. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears tried an failed. They made some points and then covered as bigger buying came late in the day. They need a strong 1h bar close below 22k to turn this neutral again. For now they can only hope to sell new highs and scalp some points. Most bears wait for 22450ish and if we find more sellers there. Invalidation is above 22150. short term: Bullish. Below 22k that changes but for now you can buy every good bullish signal bar after a dip. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-16: Bulls are on their way of making a new ath again. So no bearish thoughts until market character changes dramatically again. I can see this going up to 23000 but not beyond. No bigger opinion on a medium-term outlook for this. trade of the day: Very good bearish signal bar going into US open and then follow-through to 22200. Market then printed bar 36 + 37 and the big tails below was a good sign to be cautious with shorts because we are finding more buyers in that area, so the downside might probably be limited. Market then went sideways until we made a lower low major trend reversal with bar 53 + 54. 55 was the bar to go long on but could also have waited for bar 56. This has now also build a head & shoulders bottom and a measured move brings us above 22300 again.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
2
XAUUSD ATH OR NEED SOME CORRECTION? XAUUSD Update | H1 time frame 🙌 As We seen market is in Bullish Bias according to Trendline ❗️ What we are expecting because its a third attemptation to point at Resistance level Basically we set our region at Resistance level and we marked the area at 2940.00 point if market break that region we will expect a new All time high at 2950.00 almost On othe hand if market respect the resistance level then we will expected some correction at different levels at 2934.00 support if cant break then expected 2950.00 while if market break that support level then expected 2915-2914 area Still our Observation point is at 2905.80 ❗️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by professionaltradersfx
RTY_60 Minute_Bullish_+340 TicksThe RTY one hour time frame is in an up trend. The market is making higher highs and higher lows. The market has an up Fibonacci with an extension price point 2336.0. It will be a good idea to look for long ideas towards the one hour up Fibonacci. Entry: Counter trend line break bullish in the buy zone. STOP: 2256.2 LIMIT: 2333.2 Another entry idea: As long as the one hour time frame stays in the buy zone. It will be a good idea to turn to the five minute time frame and to look for long ideas towards the one hour limit price.
CME_MINI:RTY1!Long
by JoshuaMartinez
1
GOLD STRONG BULLISH BIAS|LONG| ✅GOL D made a strong bullish Rebound from the horizontal Support below of 2868$ just as We predicted in our previous Analysis and and is going up now Which combined with the fact That gold is trading in a strong Long-term uptrend along the Rising support line makes us Bullish biased and IF we see a Bullish breakout of the Horizontal resistance level above Around 2940$ this will serve as A confirmation of our bullish Bias and we will be expecting A further bullish continuation on Gold SWING LONG🚀 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ProSignalsFx
2
Gold (XAU/USD) - Key Zone Reaction & Possible Scenarios**Gold (XAU/USD) - Key Zone Reaction & Possible Scenarios** Looking at the chart, we can see that price is currently testing the **30 EG** zone after a strong move up from the **30 EF** zone below. The **original FEZ zone** (far left) was respected, and price reacted accordingly. ### What could happen next? 1️⃣ **Bearish Rejection from 30 EG** → If the price fails to break through the EG zone and shows clear rejection, we could see a short-term pullback or even a deeper retracement. 2️⃣ **Break & Continuation** → If price breaks above the EG zone with strength, it may confirm bullish momentum and push towards the next liquidity area. 3️⃣ **Formation of New EG** → If price consolidates and prints another engulfing structure within this range, we could reconsider labeling this zone accordingly. ### Key Takeaway Since **EG was not formed on CMP**, this is more likely to be a **CE (Continuation Engulf)** rather than a strong EG. If no significant reaction occurs here, bulls may continue their dominance. If close below green line, for sure we are Bearish! What do you think? Do you expect gold to hold this zone or break higher? 🔥📉📈
SAXO:XAUUSDShort
by Idealadvantage