Futures market
GOLD Can Turn Bearish Now, After Completing a 50% Retracement!GOLD futures analysis for Wed Jun 26th.
Price reached the -FVGand is reacting to it now.
This, after pulling back tothe 50% fib.
Should the FVG fail, Gold is bullish. This is not
supported by fundamentals, though.
As the market environment is more risk on than
off, I expect the -FVG to hold, and the retracement
of the last impulsive move down to end, and a new
bearish leg to begin.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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SILVER (XAGUSD): Intraday Bullish Confirmation?!📈SILVER appears to be on a bullish trend following a bounce off crucial daily/intraday horizontal support.
The price broke through a resistance line of a descending channel and created a local Change of Character (CHoCH).
There is a strong likelihood that the price will keep rising, with a target of 37.00.
The Fed's rate cut cannot stop the decline in gold pricesThe 4-hour technical pattern is repaired, the short-term moving average diverges upward, and the K-line stands firm on the moving average support and fluctuates upward. In the short term, pay attention to the breakthrough of the 3350 pressure level and the confirmation of the European and American market retracement. The daily price stabilizes at the 3300 support level, and the downward momentum is weakened. The overall pattern of fluctuations is maintained. Be vigilant about the short-term adjustment risk after continuous highs. In terms of operation, it is recommended to arrange short orders in batches in the 3347-3352 area, and strictly stop loss and take profit.
XAUUSD: Gold's Inflationary Tug-of-WarXAUUSD: Gold's Inflationary Tug-of-War – Navigating Powell's Remarks & Key Levels
Hello TradingView community!
Let's dive into Gold (XAUUSD) today, as its price action continues to be shaped by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious stance on inflation and interest rates. Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are particularly noteworthy.
🌍 Macroeconomic Drivers: Tariffs, Inflation, and Fed's Deliberation
The market finds itself in a complex situation following key statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell:
Powell indicated that substantial tariffs could trigger a prolonged wave of inflation, potentially moving beyond conventional economic models. This introduces a new and significant factor into the inflation outlook.
Despite recent inflation moderation, Powell stressed the necessity of more data from June and July before considering any rate cuts. This underscores the Fed's cautious approach and lack of immediate urgency.
He also cautioned about the risk of "price shocks turning into persistent inflation".
In this environment, where market sentiment is stretched between hopes for rate cuts and the emerging risk of tariff-driven inflation, Gold maintains its role as a crucial psychological anchor. Should the Fed be slow to react to this potential new inflationary pressure, Gold's appeal could intensify.
📊 XAUUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Plan:
Based on the XAUUSD charts (H4/M30 timeframe) you provided (e.g., image_008403.png): Gold is currently undergoing a corrective or consolidating phase after a notable pullback. The price is trading below shorter-term moving averages, suggesting either bearish momentum or an accumulation phase.
Key Resistance Zones (Potential SELL Areas):
3,352.383 - 3,353.860: An immediate resistance point, coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
Higher up: 3,391.750 - 3,395.000: This represents a very strong previous peak and a major resistance barrier.
Key Support Zones (Potential BUY Areas):
3,317.738 - 3,311.214: An intermediate support area, close to the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
3,302.939 - 3,302.857: A strong demand zone, aligning with the recent low.
Further down: 3,286.257: This is the next significant support level if preceding zones are breached.
🎯 XAUUSD Intraday Trading Plan:
Here are our refined zones and targets for today's trading:
BUY SCALP:
Entry: 3316 - 3314
SL: 3310
TP: 3320 - 3324 - 3328 - 3332 - 3336 - 3340
BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3304 - 3302
SL: 3298
TP: 3308 - 3312 - 3316 - 3320 - 3330 - 3340 - 3350
SELL SCALP:
Entry: 3353 - 3355
SL: 3360
TP: 3350 - 3345 - 3340 - 3335 - 3330
SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3390 - 3392
SL: 3396
TP: 3386 - 3382 - 3378 - 3374 - 3370 - 3360
⚠️ Key Factors to Monitor:
Fed Official Speeches: Any new comments from Fed officials regarding inflation or monetary policy outlook.
US Economic Data: Upcoming inflation (CPI, PCE) and employment reports (NFP) will be crucial for policy expectations.
Geopolitical Developments: Ongoing global tensions consistently bolster Gold's safe-haven appeal.
Trade wisely and always manage your risk effectively! Wishing everyone a profitable trading day!
Gold Turns Bullish After Clearing Daily Sell-Side LiquidityThe purge of this liquidity indicates that institutional players may have engineered a move to grab orders before initiating a new upward leg. Following this move, price action shows signs of strong bullish intent, such as bullish engulfing candles, increased volume on up moves, or a break above short-term resistance.
This liquidity sweep not only invalidates bearish pressure but also creates a clean bullish imbalance, offering a potential entry zone for buyers. Traders should now watch for:
A break and retest of the key structure above the liquidity sweep.
Bullish order blocks forming on lower timeframes (e.g., H1 or H4).
Confluences like Fibonacci retracement levels, trendline support, or moving average bounces.
As long as price holds above the level of the purge and continues forming higher lows, gold is likely to trend upward in the near term. Potential targets include recent highs or fair value gaps left behind during the bearish move.
This setup favors buying pullbacks rather than chasing price, with invalidation below the recent sweep level.
SILVER (XAGUSD): Buyers Show Strength
Silver is going to rise more, following a strong bullish sentiment this morning.
The price violated a strong falling trend line and an intraday horizontal resistance.
These 2 breakouts indicate a strong buying pressure.
The price may grow more today and reach 37.14 level.
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6.26 How much can gold rise?6.26 How much can gold rise?
Yesterday, the price of gold stood firm at 3330 as expected and then rose. Today, it rushed up to test 3350. If it fails to break through 3350 again after the correction, the price of gold will enter a volatile state. Wait for the release of today's data before making the next judgment.
The international situation is currently easing, and the price of gold will continue to reflect its safe-haven value under the influence of the overall upward trend.
Currently, the price of gold is above 3330. If the price of gold is still above 3330 after the release of today's US data, then the price of gold has a chance to break through the horizontal channel high of 3350. On the contrary, if it cannot stand firm at 3330, it will continue to enter the downward channel.
Today, you can go long near 3330, stop loss at 3325, target at 3347 and then observe.
If the price of gold continues to fluctuate near 3340, you can go short with a light position near 3345, stop loss at 3351, target at 3333.
Thank you for your attention, and I hope my analysis can help you.
XAUUSD: Breakout or Bull Trap?Gold (XAUUSD) on the daily timeframe is showing signs of a temporary rebound after a sharp drop from the resistance zone at 3,452 USD. Specifically, the price has bounced back from the support area around 3,291 – 3,298 USD – a region aligned with dynamic EMA support and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the previous bullish leg.
1. Key Technical Structure:
A clear reversal candlestick pattern has formed at a strong support zone, paving the way for a short-term technical rebound.
The 0.5 Fibonacci level at 3,346.5 is currently acting as the nearest resistance – aligning closely with today’s closing price.
EMA 20 and EMA 50 are beginning to converge, indicating market indecision on the next directional move.
2. Short-Term Price Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: If price holds above the 3,291 – 3,298 support zone and breaks above 3,348, it could retest the 3,400 – 3,452 highs in the coming days. In this case, strengthening EMAs and bullish candle momentum would support this setup.
Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if the price fails to break through the 3,348 – 3,352 resistance zone and falls below 3,291 again, the market may head toward deeper support levels at 3,240 – or even as low as 3,167 USD.
3. Trading Recommendations:
Short-term Buy if there is a confirmed bullish candle closing above 3,348 with strong volume; stop loss below 3,291.
Sell on rally around 3,348 – 3,352 resistance if no clear breakout is confirmed.
Apply strict risk management, especially in a choppy market environment ahead of key macroeconomic data at the end of the month.
Conclusion:
XAUUSD is currently in a “trend re-evaluation zone.” Closely monitoring the 3,291 – 3,348 range will be the key to timing efficient entries in the short term.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
A ranging day and honestly, very frustrating for traders due to the up and down which hasn't allowed us to really hold without ridiculous stop losses. We hit the target yesterday, we're still not retesting that low so those entries are still active, but we really need to see this break above the 3335 level to go higher.
For that reason, we will say if red box active continues to support the price we can look for this to go a little higher but that 3340-45 level is the one to watch. The daily has flipped for lower pricing so tomorrow a high may be put in before further declines.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold May Slightly Pull Back Around 3,350 USD📊 Market Overview
• Gold is currently trading around 3,340–3,345 USD/oz, supported by a weaker USD and lower U.S. yields, with 60 bps Fed rate cut expected by year-end, starting in September
• The Israel–Iran ceasefire has eased safe-haven demand, triggering a mild pullback, while support remains near 3,300 USD
📉 Technical Analysis
• Key resistance:
3,370 USD (short-term peak)
3,380–3,400 USD (prior highs)
• Nearest support:
3,300 (technical bounce zone)
Next at 3,275 (momentum weak)
• EMA:
Price trading below the 9-period EMA on H4, indicating a mild bearish/choppy short-term trend
• Candles/volume/momentum:
RSI & Stochastics near neutral suggest consolidation or minor retracement .
📌 Outlook
Gold may pull back to 3,300–3,320 if the USD rebounds or geopolitical tensions ease further. However, a Fed rate cut in September or renewed Middle East instability could drive prices back up to 3,370–3,400.
💡 Suggested Trade Plan
• SELL XAU/USD: at 3,365–3,370
o 🎯 TP: 3,345–3,340
o ❌ SL: 3,380
• BUY XAU/USD: at 3,300–3,310
o 🎯 TP: 3,320–3,330
o ❌ SL: 3,290
XAU/USD) Bullish trand Read The captionSMC trading point update
Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, highlighting a breakout from consolidation supported by key levels and trend structure. Here’s the detailed analysis:
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Technical Breakdown
1. Key Support Zone
Price has formed a strong base around 3,315–3,325, with multiple bullish rejections (green arrows).
This zone has acted as a demand level, reinforcing bullish structure.
2. Ascending Trendline Support
An uptrend line supports higher lows, showing momentum building to the upside.
3. EMA 200
Price is now challenging the 200 EMA (3,353.41) — a key dynamic resistance.
A successful breakout and retest above this EMA will likely fuel continued bullish movement.
4. Breakout & Measured Move Projections
The chart indicates a bullish breakout from a consolidation box (yellow zone).
Measured move targets based on the previous rally:
First target: 3,368.86 (1.17%)
Second target: 3,381.55 (1.75%)
5. RSI Confirmation
RSI (14) is around 57, showing bullish momentum but still below overbought—supporting further upside potential.
Mr SMC Trading point
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Conclusion / Idea Summary
Bias: Bullish
Entry Zone: On pullback into 3,330–3,340 range or breakout retest above EMA 200
Targets:
3,368.86
3,381.55
Invalidation: Sustained close below 3,320 and break of the uptrend line
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GOLD H4 Accumulation Fractal Target is 4 000 USD 🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update
📉 Gold Pullback: XAU/USD drifted below $3,350, falling to around $3,325–$3,330 amid easing Middle East tensions and a firmer U.S. dollar.
🤝 Ceasefire Effect: De-escalation in Israel-Iran hostilities reduced safe-haven demand, capping gold’s upside.
💵 Fed & USD Dynamics: Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed that policymakers aren’t in a rush to cut rates. A softer dollar provided some support, but intraday USD strength weighed on gold.
📊 Technical Watch: Gold remains in a bearish short-term structure below the 200-period SMA. Resistance lies near $3,368–$3,370; support cluster begins around $3,300, with potential slide to $3,245–$3,200 if broken.
🔮 Forecast Updates:
• Citi Research flagged that gold may have peaked and could undergo further softening in Q3-2025.
• WSJ notes gold posting weekly gains, with futures steadying at $3,339/oz.
• Another WSJ report suggests potential for new highs later this year—forecasting an average of $3,210/oz in 2025, a 35% increase.
⚠️ Market Split: Opinions are fragmented—Wall Street sees mixed short-term direction, while Main Street maintains a bullish stance ahead of key U.S. data (GDP, PCE, jobless claims).
🏠 Central Bank Demand: Sustained demand from central banks reinforces gold’s structural support.
🔮 Live Price Snapshot: Futures are up ~0.2%, trading at $3,339.20/oz today.
📊 Technical Outlook Update
🏆 Bull Market Overview
▪️ A pullback is currently unfolding
▪️ Heavy resistance seen at $3,500
▪️ Possible re-accumulation underway
▪️ Scenario mirrors summer 2024
▪️ Accumulation before breakout
▪️ Downside protected around $3,150
▪️ Short-term range trading in progress
▪️ Bulls maintain strategic upper hand
⭐️ Recommended Strategy
▪️ Buy dips within the range
▪️ Look for entries near $3,150 S/R zone
▪️ Long-term bullish target of $4K remains intact