GOLD CONTINUATION PATTERNHello folks, here we go again, This idea stuck in my head only today and its friday. rather shared it or none, but see the charts for stops and target. this might be your lucky day on my page.
Here is my idea, take it if you love to swing or watch it fade. Congrats were on 800 community or I got more followers because of this. and Previous idea we made a lot thats 1200 pips good for a month trade. lets see this August. my target is labeled this chart first at 3500 zone. next target will be posted on my notes or updated the idea. no charts until it breaks that labeled on chart. until it goes higher again.
You will never see this kind of idea for a month again. So follow on my page, I have some for you if you have small accounts.d m here
My goal is to target the highest TP will be above this new highs.
Futures market
Zones for the rest of August (if no ATH)Just simple zones, ignore. I want to compare to the end of the month later.
Keep trading simple. These are the zones I made after drawing from 4H all the way to 5 minute candle for precision. I already have my own speculation but feel free to use it for your own.
Goodbye, trade safe.
How to accurately grasp the gold trading opportunitiesGold was greatly affected by the positive non-farm payroll data, and it rose strongly, with the increase completely covering all the losses this week. The current gold trend has completely reversed the previous bull-short balance. After breaking through the 3300 level and rising to around 3355, it maintains strong upward momentum, and the possibility of further testing the 3360-3375 area cannot be ruled out. Due to the strong positive data, if everyone fails to chase the long position or set a breakout long position in time in the first wave of the market, the subsequent pullback opportunities may be relatively limited, so it is necessary to maintain an active strategy in operation. It is recommended to continue to be bullish when it retreats to the 3335-3320 area, and the upper target is the 3360-3375 pressure range.
XAU/USD GOLD NFP DIRECTIONThis chart analysis is for XAU/USD (Gold vs. U.S. Dollar) on the 4-hour timeframe. The focus is on a bearish market structure, highlighting potential Price of Interest (POI) zones for a short (sell) setup.
Key Elements:
Market Structure: Clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows.
POIs Identified:
Optional POI: An initial supply zone where price might react.
Extreme POI: A more significant supply zone marked for a stronger potential reversal.
Labels & Notes:
The price levels are marked between 3,320 – 3,340, showing where the reversal is expected.
Interpretation:
The chart anticipates a retracement upward into the POIs before continuing the bearish move. Traders may look to enter short positions around these zones, especially the Extreme POI, which is seen as a high-probability reversal area.
Is the uptrend complete? Will there be a pullback?On the last trading day of this week, gold prices soared, rising nearly $56, driven by the non-farm payroll data. The rally began at 3300 and peaked near 3356. The price has now retreated slightly, fluctuating around 3345.
The current uptrend has repeatedly tested the resistance level near 3355 but has failed to break through. The RSI indicator hovered around 76.8, indicating a gradual flattening of the upward trend. The 3355 high is likely the end of this uptrend.
As this is the last day of a major data week, Quaid believes the current uptrend is complete. Consider a light short position around 3350-3355. The current low has yet to be confirmed, and the pullback is likely to end around 3335.
However, we cannot rule out the possibility that the price will remain within the upward channel with slight fluctuations on the last trading day of the week.
Gold Approaches Key Reversal Zone After Liquidity Sweep.Gold has recently broken out of a parallel channel during the New York session, followed by a strong upward move triggered by the NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) news event. Currently, the market is trading near a key trendline resistance zone. In this area, the price has also swept the liquidity residing above recent highs, indicating that potential buy-side liquidity has been taken out.
This level now becomes critical for observation. If the market forms a Market Structure Shift (MSS) or provides any valid bearish confirmation — such as a strong rejection candle, bearish engulfing, or a break of lower timeframe support — then there is a high probability that a downward move may follow from this zone.
As always, conduct your own research (DYOR) and wait for price action to confirm the bias before executing any trades. Acting on confirmation rather than assumptions protects both capital and strategy.
Gold Price Target: 3380-3400+, Set a Trailing StopGold Price Target: 3380-3400+, Set a Trailing Stop
As shown in Figure 4h:
Gold finally rallied this weekend.
Despite recent heavy losses for long positions, the past two days have been encouraging.
We ultimately managed to successfully buy the dip in the 3280-3300 range and recover all our losses.
Gold prices continue to rise, and everyone is asking if it's time to sell.
Now is the critical time to exit.
We must acknowledge one fact:
Gold currently presents a huge opportunity.
Of course, the risks are also increasing.
At times like these, I always emphasize that the best approach is to set a 10-point trailing stop.
Even if gold prices soar, we can move with them.
This non-farm payroll data was a huge disappointment.
It was a truly positive surprise for gold.
The market expected 110,000 new jobs, but the result was a disappointing 73,000, a decrease of half from the previous month.
The market went into a tizzy after the outperformance. But even more shocking news is yet to come: Non-farm payrolls for May and June were revised downward by a combined 258,000.
This means the June gain was revised downward from 140,000 to 14,000.
The May gain was abruptly revised downward from 140,000 to 19,000.
The strong data of the past two months was completely false.
Market followers have become the "clowns" of the Fed and Trump.
Now you understand why everyone praised Powell's hawkish speech two days ago.
Because Powell said: "Only if there is a severe decline in employment will we consider cutting interest rates."
Just this Wednesday, some good non-farm payroll data was released.
This undoubtedly gave the market a false impression.
Everyone believed that a rate cut was impossible, and the probability of a September cut had dropped to 40%.
However, today's poor non-farm payroll data, combined with revisions to May and June data, revealed the truth.
The job market has been dismal over the past quarter.
The market reacted quickly, and gold prices soared on this sentiment.
My advice is to buy gold at a low price and hold on.
For investors who have successfully bought in the 3280-3300 level in recent days, I recommend setting a 10-15 pip trailing stop-loss.
Gold prices are likely to continue their upward trend next Monday.
Our next target is above 3380-3400 points.
NFP Miss Implications: Recession Signal or Rate Cut CatalystCME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! CME_MINI:MNQ1!
Happy Friday, folks!
Today is the first Friday of August, and that means the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers came in at 7.30 am CT.
US Non-Farm Payrolls (Jul) 73.0k vs. Exp. 110.0k (Prev. 147.0k, Rev. 14k); two-month net revisions: -258k (prev. +16k).
Other key labor market indicators were as follows:
• US Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.1%)
• US Average Earnings MM (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
• US Average Earnings YY (Jul) 3.9% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.7%, Rev. 3.8%)
• US Labor Force Particle (Jul) 62.2% (Prev. 62.3%)
Data and Key Events Recap:
What a year this week has been! It's been packed with high-impact economic data and pivotal central bank decisions, especially from the Federal Reserve. On top of that, trade and tariff announcements have dominated the headline.
U.S. economic data this week was broadly strong. Second-quarter GDP came in at 3.0%, beating expectations and signaling solid growth. The ADP employment report also surprised to the upside, printing 104K vs. the 77K forecast. Consumer confidence showed resilience as well, with the Conference Board’s reading rising to 97.2.
Inflation data was mixed but mostly in line. Core PCE for June rose 0.3% MoM, while the YoY reading ticked up to 2.8%, slightly above the expected 2.7%. The broader PCE Price Index also came in at 0.3% MoM, with a YoY print of 2.6%, slightly higher than forecast.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% – 4.50%. Notably, Governors Waller and Bowman dissented, favoring a 25-basis-point rate cut as expected, however, marking the first dual dissent by governors since 1993.
Changes to the FOMC Statement included a downgraded assessment of economic growth, reflecting slower real consumer spending. The Committee reiterated that uncertainty around the economic outlook remains elevated. It maintained its view of the labor market as "solid" and inflation as "somewhat elevated." Forward guidance remained unchanged, emphasizing the Fed’s readiness to adjust policy as necessary while continuing to monitor risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
Here’s a summary of key points from the FOMC press conference:
• On current policy stance:
“We decided to leave our policy rate where it’s been, which I would characterize as modestly restrictive. Inflation is running a bit above 2%... even excluding tariff effects. The labor market is solid, financial conditions are accommodative, and the economy is not performing as if restrictive policy is holding it back.”
Chair Powell commented on the need to see more data to help inform Fed’s assessment of the balance of risks and appropriate Fed Funds rate.
• On labor market risks:
“By many statistics, the labor market is still in balance... You do see a slowing in job creation, but also a slowing in the supply of workers. That’s why the unemployment rate has remained roughly stable.”
• On inflation and tariffs:
“It’s possible that tariff-related inflationary effects could be short-lived, but they may also prove persistent. We’re seeing substantial tariff revenue—around $30 billion a month—starting to show up in consumer prices. Companies intend to pass it on to consumers, but many may not be able to. We’ll need to watch and learn how this unfolds over time.”
Trade Headlines:
US President Trump announced tariffs on countries ranging from 10%-41%. Average US tariff rate now at 15.2% (prev. 13.3%; 2.3% pre-Trump), according to Bloomberg. US officials said that if the US has a surplus with a country, the tariff rate is 10% and small deficit nations have a 15% tariff, US officials said they are still working out technicalities of rules of origin terms for transshipment and will implement rules of origin details in the coming weeks. No details on Russian oil import penalty. Sectoral Tariffs White House said new reciprocal tariff rates take effect on Friday. Although Canada’s tariffs were increased to 35%, excluding USMCA goods, the effective rate is only 5%.
The economic data is showing strength, on the contrary, tariffs announcements for most countries have now been announced. Investors need to consider that tariffs are not just a tool to reduce trade deficit, it is also a geopolitical tool presently being used to shape alliances. The US wants to soften BRICS, China and Russian influence on the world stage.
Key to note is that these tariffs are substantially lower than what was announced on April 2nd, 2025.
The key question now remains, do participants buy the dip or ‘sell the fact’ is the current playbook?
Market Implications
Given the prior revisions in NFP data of -258K, July’s payroll came in at 73K, missing forecasts of 110K. What does this mean for markets? Markets are now pricing in 75% chance of a September rate cut. Prior revisions along with the current job market slowing down imply that risks to the downside are substantially increasing. Fed’s current policy is not just moderately restrictive but rather it may likely tip the US into a recession if Fed Funds rates remain elevated. The Chair asked to see more data, and here it is but I do wonder why they did not take this data into account for the July meeting. Surely, it would have been available to them.
Another question to ask would be, is it due to defiance of rate cut calls by the US administration? Is the Fed already behind the curve?
Fed’s dual mandate targets inflation and maximum employment. While inflation is sticky, the Fed may need to abandon their 2% mandate in favor of average inflation of 2.5% to 3%. A less restrictive policy will provide needed stimulus along with the fiscal stimulus provided via the BBB bill.
This drastically changes, in our analysis, how investors position themselves heading into the remainder of the year.
Markets (equities) may retrace slightly but the dip in our opinion will still be the play given weaker labor market data and increased rate cut bets. The bad news here means that the Fed has the data it wants to see to start cutting. Market pricing in 2 cuts seems to be the way forward for now.
The idea of shorting on rallies below 3315 remains unchanged.Gold remains generally weak, with multiple rebounds showing signs of fatigue. The upward moving average continues to suppress prices, indicating that the bearish trend remains intact, and the short-term market outlook remains bearish. Trading strategies remain bearish today, with a key focus on the 3300-3315 area, a key short-term resistance zone. If the market rebounds before the US market opens and approaches this area, or if a clear topping signal appears near this range, consider entering a short position. Today will see the release of the non-farm payroll data, which may influence the market's trajectory. We recommend prioritizing short-term trading before the release, and reconsidering the market's direction based on market feedback after the release. Structurally, gold continues to exhibit a volatile downward trend, with lower highs and lower lows. Today's low is expected to be lower than yesterday's. Short-term short positions are focused on 3285-3280, with a break below this level potentially allowing for further declines. Please carefully time your entry, strictly implement risk management, and avoid emotional trading.
GOLD: Short Trading Opportunity
GOLD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry Level - 3299.9
Sl - 3304.2
Tp - 3291.3
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
NFP Friday - XAUUSD Prediction - August 2025#NFP Friday + New Month 👇
- Still leaning bearish on TVC:GOLD
- New month = re-positioning flows
- Watching 3225–3250 zone (Fib 38/50 confluence)
- Clean pullback setup near Psy level & untested orders
News Prediction:
- Labor market still holding up, I’m thinking NFP prints closer to 130k–150k, not that 110k estimate
- Yes, tech & retail saw some layoffs, but not enough to tank the whole report
- Adapt if wrong, execute if right. No stress
#XAUUSD #Gold #NFP #Dollar #NFPFriday #XAUUSD #Gold #NFP #JobsReport #Dollar #Macro #Trading #MarketOutlook #NFPFriday
USOIL Is Bearish! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for USOIL.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 69.178.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 66.684 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Gold completing a 4-month Bull Flag consolidation, 3800 next! We can see the classic bull flag consolidation pattern which has been going on ever since the stock market decided to go on a rager!
Even with that going on, smart money continues to buy gold on the dips as you should too.
Once Trump installs a phoney new BLS chief and moves to pressure the Fed by nominating a new governor after Kugler's departure the message will be clear:
1) the BLS and the Fed are no longer independent
2) the US dollar is going to tank
3) Gold is going to boom!
Good luck and happy trading!
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy | August 1✅ Fundamental Analysis
🔹 Trump Signs New Tariff Executive Order
On July 31, President Trump signed an executive order imposing a new round of tariffs on countries including Canada and India, while Mexico was granted a 90-day grace period. This move has once again heightened global trade uncertainty, fueling risk-off sentiment and providing support to gold.
🔹 Dollar Strength Limits Gold's Upside
Despite the increase in risk aversion, the U.S. Dollar Index has risen sharply, exerting downside pressure on gold. As a result, the price of gold remains capped, with a tug-of-war between bulls and bears dominating market dynamics.
🔹 Key U.S. Economic Data in Focus
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is the major event on the calendar today. It is expected to be a decisive driver for short-term gold direction:
If the data is bullish for gold (e.g., weak job growth or slower wage increases), gold may retest the 3340 level.
If the data is bearish for gold (e.g., strong job gains or higher wages), gold may break below 3260, continuing its downward trend.
Ahead of the data release, gold is likely to remain in a consolidation range, with market participants generally adopting a cautious stance.
✅ Technical Analysis
🔸 Daily Chart Structure:
Gold printed a gravestone doji yesterday, characterized by a long upper shadow, indicating strong selling pressure at higher levels. The overall trend remains weak. After four consecutive daily declines followed by a minor rebound, another strong bearish candle has emerged, signaling a continuation of the downtrend.
🔸 Hourly Chart Structure:
On the 1-hour timeframe, gold remains below all major moving averages, which are aligned in a bearish formation. Despite multiple rebound attempts, each high has been lower than the last, reflecting diminishing bullish strength. The second U.S. session high was capped around 3310. If today's rebound fails to break above that level, the bearish trend remains dominant.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 3305 / 3315 / 3340
🟢 Support Levels: 3275 / 3260 / 3245
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔻 Short Position Strategy:
🔰Consider entering short positions in batches if gold rebounds to the 3305-3310 area. Target: 3285-3270;If support breaks, the move may extend to 3250.
🔺 Long Position Strategy:
🔰Consider entering long positions in batches if gold pulls back to the 3245-3250 area. Target: 3265-3275;If resistance breaks, the move may extend to 3285.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions. If you have any questions or need one-on-one guidance, feel free to contact me🤝
NF news, can gold selling pressure drop to 3240?⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading lower, around $3,285 in early Asian hours on Friday, as a firmer U.S. dollar weighs on the non-yielding metal following new tariff measures announced by President Donald Trump.
The White House said late Thursday that Trump will set a 10% baseline tariff, stepping back from earlier speculation about hikes to 15% or higher, according to Bloomberg. He also signed an executive order raising the tariff on Canada from 25% to 35%, effective August 1, 2025, while extending Mexico’s current tariff rates for another 90 days to allow more time for negotiations.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
large frame, gold price is still moving in the downtrend line. will wait for NF result to have strong selling force again 3240
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3374- 3376 SL 3381
TP1: $3365
TP2: $3350
TP3: $3333
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3242-$3240 SL $3235
TP1: $3255
TP2: $3268
TP3: $3280
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
How to seize the key turning points in the gold market?The market is ever-changing, and following the trend is the best strategy. When the trend emerges, jump in; don't buy against it, or you'll suffer. Remember not to act on impulse when trading. The market is a haven for all kinds of resistance, so don't hold onto positions. I'm sure many people have experienced this: the more you hold onto positions, the more panic you become, leading to ever-increasing losses, poor sleep, and missed opportunities. If you share these concerns, why not try following Tian Haoyang's lead and see if it can open your eyes? I'm always here for you if you need help, but how can I help you if you don't even offer a hand?
Gold did not fall below 3280 during the day on Friday and started to fluctuate in the range of 3280-3300. The non-farm payroll data was bullish, and it directly broke through the pressure of 3315, and then broke through the important pressure of 3335 again. As of now, it has reached a high near 3355. The non-farm payroll data market has almost been exhausted. Next, we will focus on the technical form adjustment. At present, you can consider light shorting in the area near 3355-3370. After all, chasing long is risky, and the technical side needs to be adjusted. If your current operation is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate with me.
Based on the 4-hour chart, short-term resistance is near 3355-3365, with a focus on the key resistance level of 3370-3375. Short-term buy orders should be taken if a rebound continues. I'll provide detailed trading strategies at the bottom of the page, so stay tuned.
Gold operation strategy: Short gold in batches when gold rebounds to 3355-3370, with the target being the area around 3340-3335. Continue to hold if it breaks through.
GOLD falls sharply, fundamental analysis and technical positionOANDA:XAUUSD fell sharply below the $3,300/oz price level as Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal any rate cuts at his next press conference on September 16-17. He only said that “no decision has been made on September” and that “more data will be evaluated in the coming months.” Economic data undermined the case for a rate cut, while geopolitical play remained a potential support.
The Fed and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for a fifth straight meeting on Wednesday, defying persistent pressure from President Donald Trump and White House officials.
However, two members of the central bank's board dissented, a rare move in three decades that underscored growing divisions within the central bank over the impact of Trump's tariff policies.
At the meeting, the Fed kept its benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, in line with policy through 2025. Last fall, the Fed cut rates by a total of 100 basis points.
However, Federal Reserve Board Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman opposed cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points, marking the first time since Alan Greenspan in 1993 that two board members have opposed a majority resolution at a meeting.
At the press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell did not signal a rate cut at the next interest rate meeting on September 16-17, saying only that “no decision has been made about September” and that “more data will be evaluated in the coming months.” Powell also noted that despite Trump’s call for a sharp 3% rate cut to reduce interest costs on US debt and stimulate the housing market, the Fed will continue to monitor the longer-term impact of tariffs on the path of inflation and economic recovery.
Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September fell to 47% in Powell's speech.
Economic data
ADP jobs data beats expectations and is bearish
US ADP payrolls jumped 104,000 in July, beating market expectations of 75,000 and marking the biggest gain since March. The data showed continued strength in the labor market, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s stance on keeping interest rates high. Meanwhile, the preliminary estimate of annual GDP growth in the second quarter came in at 3% (2.4% expected), and the core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2.5% year-on-year (2.3% expected), indicating both economic resilience and inflation stability, further weakening expectations for a rate cut.
Keep an eye on the ISM manufacturing PMI and non-farm payrolls data on August 1. If the jobs numbers continue to be strong, this could reinforce the Fed’s dovish stance.
Geopolitical and Policy Plays
News of a 90-day extension of the US-China tariff deal has eased some safe-haven demand, but Trump’s August 8 deadline for a new Russia-Ukraine deal, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, continue to provide potential support for gold.
Continued purchases by central banks (such as China and India) are a positive signal in the medium to long term, but are unlikely to offset short-term pressure from the Federal Reserve’s policies.
Technical outlook for OANDA:XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold has been sold below the $3,300 level and now the $3,300 level has become the nearest resistance at present. For now, gold will be limited by the area of the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement with the original price point of $3,300, along with that it has formed a short-term downtrend with the price channel, the next target will be around $3,246 in the short term followed by the Fibonacci retracement level noted with readers in previous publications.
On the momentum front, the Relative Strength Index is operating below 50 and is far from the oversold zone (20-0), indicating that there is still plenty of room for downside ahead.
In addition, the gold trend will also be pressured by the EMA21, as long as gold remains below the EMA21, the current technical conditions continue to favor the downside.
For the day, the technical outlook for gold is bearish with notable positions listed as follows.
Support: 3,246 – 3,228 USD
Resistance: 3,300 USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3345 - 3343⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3349
→Take Profit 1 3337
↨
→Take Profit 2 3331
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3240 - 3242⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3236
→Take Profit 1 3248
↨
→Take Profit 2 3254
DeGRAM | GOLD fixed below the triangle📊 Technical Analysis
● XAUUSD is forming a bearish descending wedge within a broader symmetrical triangle, facing rejection at 3,310 near prior support-turned-resistance.
● Repeated failure to hold above trendlines and continued lower highs favor a drop toward the 3,246.56 level, with possible overshoot if support breaks.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Rising real yields and hawkish Fed tone continue to pressure gold; ISM Manufacturing Prices and NFP loom as next volatility catalysts.
● Reduced ETF inflows and strong dollar on resilient US macro data weigh on demand for non-yielding assets.
✨ Summary
Short bias below 3,310. Breakdown eyes 3,246 → 3,200 zone. Resistance holds while trendline caps recovery.
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