XAUUSD 4H – Break & Retest With Bullish Continuation | SMC🚨 Gold (XAUUSD) is setting up for a potential bullish move after a successful break and retest of a key resistance zone at 3346 – 3348, now turned into fresh support.
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
📌 Structure:
Gold previously formed a strong resistance near 3346, which aligned with multiple rejections in past sessions. After a liquidity sweep and break above this level, price retraced for a textbook break-and-retest setup.
📌 CHoCH & BOS (Break of Structure):
The market showed a bullish Change of Character followed by a clean Break of Structure to the upside, confirming bullish intent.
📌 Smart Money Perspective:
Institutional demand was respected at 3296–3305 zone.
Liquidity below this zone has been taken.
Current bullish candles are printing higher highs and higher lows.
📌 Confluences:
✅ Break & Retest of major structure
✅ Clean demand zone below
✅ Imbalance filled
✅ Bullish market structure
✅ SMC confirmation (CHoCH + BOS + Mitigation)
📈 Trade Idea (Long Setup):
💰 Buy Entry: 3359
🔻 Stop Loss: 3305 (below demand + structure)
🎯 Take Profit 1: 3400
🎯 Take Profit 2: 3440 – 3442 (major resistance)
🧮 Risk-to-Reward: 1:2+
This setup provides a strong bullish continuation opportunity targeting the upper resistance zone. Monitor candle confirmations and session volume for more precise entries.
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Futures market
SILVER: Next Move Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 38.253 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 38.151 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Silver H4 | Pullback support at 50% Fibonacci retracementSilver (XAG/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 37.27 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 36.60 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 38.32 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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WTI Crude Oil Reverses Lower Near $70 ResistanceA bearish engulfing candle has formed on the daily WTI crude oil chart, with its high perfectly respecting the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement just beneath the $70 handle. Given that the bounce from the June low has been relatively weak compared to the sharp decline from $78, I’m now on alert for a potential break beneath the $64 support level.
That said, the 200-day SMA and EMA currently sit between $65.21 and $65.31, which could offer near-term support. Should oil prices attempt to grind higher within the 1-hour bullish channel, bears may look to fade rallies into the weekly pivot (67.59) or the $68.00 handle, positioning for a potential rollover. A clean break below the 200-day averages would shift focus firmly back to $64, near the June low.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
XAUUSD DOUBLE TOP AND HL REACTION ZONE 📉 XAUUSD – Double Top & HL Reaction Zone
Gold formed a potential double top pattern near the 3375 resistance zone, followed by a strong BMS and consecutive CHoCHs, signaling bearish pressure. However, price has respected the higher low (HL) structure near the 200 EMA, keeping the bullish structure intact for now.
We are currently in a key reaction zone.
If this HL holds and bullish intent appears, price may attempt another move toward the previous high.
If the HL breaks, a deeper correction could be in play toward 3327 or lower.
📌 Watch for:
Confirmation around 3350 zone
AND TP ZONE 3330 AROUND
HL reaction or breakdown
Xausd techinical analysis.This chart shows the Gold Spot price vs. the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) on a 1-hour timeframe, with some key technical analysis elements applied. Here's a breakdown of the key components:
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🔍 Chart Analysis
1. Current Price:
The current market price is 3,344.875, down 0.32%.
2. Support Zones (Purple Rectangles at Bottom):
Around 3,335 – 3,340
Lower support around 3,325 – 3,330
3. Resistance Zone (Purple Rectangle at Top):
Around 3,370 – 3,375
4. **Trendline (Pink
GOLD Outlook – Bearish Confirmed Post-CPIWith the CPI data released at 2.7%, gold’s bearish momentum is confirmed below the Pivot Line of 3,357.953 USD.
The market reaction suggests no immediate Fed rate cuts, supporting downward pressure. Expect a move toward Support at 3,307.665 USD and the Support Zone around 3,264.120 USD. A close above 3,357.953 USD on a 1H or 4H candle could indicate a bullish reversal toward Resistance at 3,390.028 USD.
Trade Setup:
Short Entry: Near 3,357.953 USD with bearish confirmation, Stop Loss above 3,390.028 USD.
Take Profit: Initial target at 3,307.665 USD, with a second target at 3,264.120 USD.
Long Entry: Only if price breaks and holds above 3,357.953 USD, with a Stop Loss below 3,250 USD, targeting 3,390.028 USD.
Pivot Line: 3,357.953 USD
Support: 3,307.685 USD – 3,264.120 USD (Support Zone)
Resistance: 3,390.028 USD – ~3,400 USD (Key Resistance)
1h, 2h Supply Zone: Between 3,357.953 USD and 3,390.028 USD
Gold Market Eyes 3330's as Bullish Wedge MaturesGold market maintains its stance within the bullish build-up, moving in alignment with a wedge completion structure. The 3360's act as short-term resistance, while price looks set to mitigate and sweep pending orders at 3330's. A potential retracement before continuation—stay sharp.
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XAUUSD BEARISH CONTINUATION SETUP📉 XAUUSD – Bearish Continuation Setup
Timeframe: 30m | Bias: Bearish
Price failed to hold above the lower supply zone (highlighted red) after a strong move into resistance. A clear break of structure confirms sellers are in control.
🔹 Entry: 3,355–3,360 (after minor pullback into supply zone)
🔹 Stop Loss (SL): Above 3,365 (invalidation above zone)
🔹 Take Profit (TP):
▫️TP1: 3,330
▫️TP2: 3,315
▫️TP3: 3,300 (if bearish momentum continues)
📌 Structure shift + rejection from supply zone gives high-probability short setup. Wait for price confirmation before entry.
Palladium Pullback Offers Long Opportunity Amid UptrendPalladium has undergone a solid correction.
The bullish factors remain in place. I believe the current level is acceptable for entering a long position, with a stop at 1230.
If the stop is hit, we’ll need to reassess further long opportunities.
No shorts on metals — only longs for now! The market is in an upward trend.
break above 6866.1 may push prices toward the second resistance break above 6866.1 may push prices toward the second resistance at 6911.3 (TP2).
Confirmation of bullish continuation would occur if price closes above 6981.0 on a 4H or daily chart.
Volume and momentum indicators should be monitored near 6866–6911 to assess breakout strength.
This trade setup offers a favorable risk-reward ratio with a tight SL at 6522 and layered targets.
Ideal buy entries can be placed between 6630–6660, as this range shows price stability and potential reversal signs.
Traders should stay alert for fundamental news (inventory reports, geopolitical events) that could accelerate momentum past resistance levels
is currently trading at 6648.3, positioning itself within an attractive short-term buy zone.
This level sits just above strong support at 6522, which acts as the logical stop-loss (SL) zone.
The price action suggests bullish potential as it forms a base near the support level.
Immediate resistance lies at 6866.1, which could be the first profit target (TP1).
Gold CPI shocks and fallsThe hourly chart shows that the gold price fluctuated and consolidated at the bottom after a continuous correction, continuing the rebound trend. The key pressure level is the top and bottom conversion position. The current gold rebound is only a secondary confirmation of the top structure at the 30-minute level. After reaching 3365, the short-term has shown signs of pressure. In the volatile market, if the price begins to consolidate horizontally, it may indicate the end of this round of volatile upward trend, and it will enter a downward phase later. Considering the market sensitivity before the release of CPI data, it is recommended to focus on the volatile decline trend. After today's rebound, it is necessary to focus on the 3363-3368 area as a short-selling range, and the long and short defense position is set at yesterday's intraday high of 3375. In terms of operation, it is recommended to maintain the idea of rebounding and shorting, and pay attention to the 3340-3335 range for support below.
Operation strategy:
1. It is recommended to short gold near the rebound of 3363-3368, with a stop loss at 3375 and a target of 3350-3340.
Good opportunity to wait for recovery and buy GoldOANDA:XAUUSD Confirmation of breaking Key level 3330 on Friday has formed an Uptrend in Gold. Reaction at GAP 3368 is obvious in an uptrend. Gold trend is favoring buying to 3388 and 3400 next week.
Support: 3345-3331
Resistance: 3387-3400
BUY Trigger: Retest and Reject support 3345
BUY Trigger: 3331 ( Strong support zone)
Target: 3400
SELL Trigger: rejection 3387 with bearish confirmation
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Gold Faces Strong Rejection Below $3,365 – Bearish Wave Ahead?Gold is currently trading around $3,359, showing signs of exhaustion after climbing from the $3,248 low. The chart illustrates a textbook scenario of channel rejection after testing the upper boundary of the descending wedge and failing to break above the $3,365–$3,392 resistance zone. Price is now hovering just below the diagonal black trendline, indicating a potential lower high formation and setting up for another bearish wave.
📌 Key Technical Highlights
Resistance Zone: $3,365–$3,392
This area marks the confluence of the black long-term trendline, the top of the descending purple channel, and the previous high at $3,392.
Price attempted a "Possible Retest" as annotated on the chart and is now starting to pull back—showing signs of bearish rejection.
Bearish Scenario (Blue Arrows):
Multiple downward arrows show likely bearish paths if the current resistance holds.
Key short-term targets:
$3,337, $3,320, $3,303, Strong support at $3,293–$3,248
Further downside may test extension levels toward $3,220–$3,200 by early August if momentum builds.
⚠️ Bearish Confirmation Criteria
Failure to close above $3,365 (black trendline)
Breakdown below $3,337 followed by $3,320
Strong selling pressure supported by fundamentals (e.g. USD strength, Fed hawkish stance)
✅ Invalidation / Bullish Outlook
A decisive breakout and close above $3,392.73 would invalidate the bearish structure.
In that case, targets would shift toward:
$3,412, $3,434, $3,490 (long-term trendline intersection)
However, today's U.S. CPI (Consumer Price Index) release adds a layer of volatility and potential trend disruption, making this a high-risk trading day.
📊 CPI News Impact – What to Watch
High CPI (Stronger than forecast):
- Increases expectations of further Fed tightening → strengthens USD → bearish for gold
- Likely scenario: sharp drop toward $3,337 → $3,320 → $3,293
Low CPI (Weaker than forecast):
- Signals disinflation → weakens USD → bullish for gold
- Possible breakout above $3,365 → retest of $3,392 → if broken, target $3,412 and $3,434
Neutral or as expected CPI:
- Likely leads to whipsaw — fakeout on both sides
- Caution advised — wait for candle close confirmations post-news
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
Soybeans and Rain: Moisture’s Market Impact on the Bean Trade1. Introduction: Moisture & Market Momentum
Soybeans, often referred to as “the oilseed king,” are a cornerstone of global agriculture. As a leading source of protein for both humans and animals, their price fluctuations affect industries ranging from food production to biofuels. One key variable traders often monitor? Rainfall. 🌧️
Moisture plays a critical role in soybean development, influencing yield and quality from the moment the seed is sown. It’s no surprise that many market participants assume a strong correlation between rainfall and price behavior. But is that assumption truly supported by data?
In this article, we analyze how varying precipitation levels impact weekly soybean futures returns. As you'll see, the results might not be as clear-cut as you’d expect—but they still offer meaningful insights.
2. Biological Realities: Soybeans’ Water Needs
Soybeans thrive under specific conditions. While they’re generally resilient, rainfall—or the lack thereof—can tip the balance between bumper harvests and disappointing yields.
During early vegetative stages, sufficient moisture ensures healthy root development. Later, during the pod-fill phase, rainfall becomes even more essential. Too little water at this point leads to incomplete pods or aborted seeds. On the flip side, too much rain can invite fungal diseases and delay harvests, especially in lower-lying regions.
In countries like Brazil and Argentina, soybean fields often face seasonal extremes, while the U.S. Midwest typically enjoys more consistent conditions—though droughts and floods have both hit the Corn Belt in recent years. These environmental realities create natural volatility in both yield and pricing expectations.
3. Methodology: How We Analyzed Weather vs. Futures
To explore the potential connection between rainfall and soybean futures prices, we collected weekly weather data for major soybean-growing cities across the globe. Each week’s precipitation was categorized using a normalized percentile system:
Low Rainfall: below the 25th percentile
Normal Rainfall: between the 25th and 75th percentiles
High Rainfall: above the 75th percentile
We then matched this data against weekly returns of standard soybean futures (ZS) and micro soybean futures (MZS), both traded on the CME Group.
This allowed us to compare average price behavior in different rainfall scenarios—and test whether there was any statistically significant difference between dry and wet weeks.
4. Statistical Findings: Is There a Signal in the Noise?
When examining the data, the initial visual impression from boxplots was underwhelming—return distributions across rainfall categories looked surprisingly similar. However, a deeper dive showed that the difference in mean returns between low and high precipitation weeks was statistically significant, with a p-value around 0.0013.
What does that mean for traders? While the signal may not be obvious to the naked eye, statistically, rainfall extremes do impact market behavior. However, the magnitude of impact remains modest—enough to be part of your strategy but not enough to drive decisions in isolation.
Soybean prices appear to be influenced by a mosaic of factors, with precipitation being just one tile in that complex picture.
5. Charting the Relationship: Visual Evidence
While statistical tests gave us the green light on significance, we know traders love to “see” the story too. Boxplots of weekly soybean futures returns segmented by rainfall categories offered a subtle narrative:
Low-precipitation weeks showed slightly higher average returns and tighter interquartile ranges.
High-precipitation weeks had broader return distributions and more frequent downside outliers.
Normal weeks exhibited relatively stable behavior, reinforcing the idea that the market reacts most during extremes.
This kind of visualization may not scream alpha at first glance, but it reinforces the idea that precipitation events—particularly dry spells—tend to nudge prices upward, possibly as market participants price in production risk.
6. Trading Implications: Positioning Around Weather
Here’s where things get practical. While weather alone won’t dictate every trading decision, it can be a key filter in a broader strategy. For soybean traders, rainfall data can help inform:
Bias assessment: Low-precipitation weeks may suggest bullish tendencies.
Risk control: Expect wider return distributions in high-precip weeks—adjust stops or contract sizing accordingly.
Event trading: Pair weather anomalies with technical signals like trendline breaks or volume surges for potential setups.
It’s also worth noting that weekly weather forecasts from reputable sources can serve as a forward-looking indicator, giving traders a head start before the market fully reacts.
7. Margin Efficiency with Micro Soybeans
For traders looking to scale into soybean exposure without the capital intensity of full contracts, the CME Group’s micro-sized futures offer a compelling alternative.
📌 Contract Specs for Soybean Futures (ZS):
Symbol: ZS
Contract size: 5,000 bushels
Tick size: 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50
Initial margin: ~$2,100 (varies by broker and volatility)
📌 Micro Soybean Futures (MZS):
Symbol: MZS
Contract size: 500 bushels
Tick size: 0.0050 per bushel = $2.50
Initial margin: ~$210
These smaller contracts are perfect for strategy testing, risk scaling, or layering exposure around key macro events like WASDE reports or weather disruptions. For traders aiming to build weather-aligned positions, MZS is a powerful tool to balance conviction with capital efficiency.
8. Wrapping It All Together
Rain matters. Not just in fields, but in futures prices too. While soybean markets may not overreact to every drizzle or downpour, extreme rainfall conditions—especially drought—can leave noticeable footprints on price action.
For traders, this means opportunity. By incorporating precipitation metrics into your workflow, you unlock a new layer of context. One that doesn’t replace technical or fundamental analysis, but enhances both.
And remember: this article is just one piece of a larger exploration into how weather affects the commodity markets. Make sure you also read prior installments.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.