XAUUSD 30/6 – 4/7/2025: Selling Pressure Builds - In the past week, gold OANDA:XAUUSD has been under consistent selling pressure due to the following key macro factors:
- The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) TVC:DXY surged, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold and leading to widespread sell-offs.
- 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hovered around 4.30%–4.35% , reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer.
- Core PCE data for June indicated that inflation remains elevated, reducing the likelihood of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have temporarily eased, diminishing gold’s safe-haven appeal in the short term.
➤ As a result, these combined factors are applying downward pressure on XAUUSD, especially after price decisively broke the 3,300 USD support zone.
1. Technical Analysis of XAUUSD – Daily Timeframe
On the D1 chart:
- Price has broken below the key support zone 3,300 – 3,331 USD, confirming a short-term bearish structure.
- The Fibonacci retracement from the 3,399 peak to the 3,295 low has completed its pullback to the 0.5–0.618 zone (3,345 – 3,359 ) but was strongly rejected by sellers.
- Price is now trading below both EMA20 and EMA50, indicating strong bearish momentum.
- RSI has turned back under 50 and has not yet reached oversold territory, suggesting further downside potential exists.
2. Key Resistance and Support Zones for XAUUSD
Technical Role ( 3,345 – 3,359 )
- Major confluence resistance (Fibonacci 0.618 + supply) ( 3,295 – 3,300 )
- Immediate resistance zone (post-breakdown retest) ( 3,260 – 3,235 )
- Short-term support and potential buy interest ( 3,223 – 3,205 )
- Strong medium-term support (Fibonacci 1.0 + April lows)
3. Trading Strategy for XAUUSD This Week (30/6 – 4/7/2025)
Strategy 1 – Favor Short Positions Aligned with Bearish Momentum
Entry: Sell near 3,295 – 3,300 (anticipating resistance retest)
Stop Loss: 3,304
Take Profit 1: 3,290
Take Profit 2: 3,285
Take Profit 3: 3,275
Strategy 2 – Countertrend Buy at Key Support with Confirmation
Entry: Buy near 3,235 – 3,240 only if bullish reversal candles (pin bar or bullish engulfing) appear on H4 or D1
Stop Loss: 3,230
Take Profit 1: 3,245
Take Profit 2: 3,250
Take Profit 3: 3,260
Ps : XAUUSD is currently in a downward correction phase, with the next target zone lying between 3,235 – 3,260 USD. The inability to hold above 3,300 confirms that sellers remain in control. The most favorable approach this week is to sell on rallies, especially near former support-turned-resistance zones.
Stay vigilant, follow updated price action closely, and strictly manage risk to protect your capital.
Follow for more high-probability strategies throughout the week – and save this idea if you find it valuable to your trading journey.
Analysis by @Henrybillion
