XAUUSD H2 Idea, Aligned with weekly view XAUUSD& SILVER—Risk-On Mood Pressures Prices, Fed Easing Eyed
- Gold and silver prices experienced downward pressure during Friday’s Asian trading session, as a resurgence in risk appetite prompted investors to move away from safe-haven assets. Gold (XAU/USD) fell from an early high of $3,370 to $3,316, while silver (XAG/USD) dipped near $33.44, though it maintained support above $33.18.
- This shift in sentiment was influenced by positive developments in U.S.–China trade relations. Reports indicated that Beijing is considering suspending its 125% tariff on select U.S. goods, and President Trump confirmed ongoing negotiations, with the White House noting progress.
- Additionally, stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data contributed to the decline in precious metal prices. Durable goods orders surged 9.2% in March, surpassing expectations and bolstering the U.S. dollar, which in turn weighed on gold.
Despite these factors, the outlook for gold and silver remains influenced by expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic indicators, such as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, for further clues on potential Fed easing.
Futures market
Gold Trade Plan 25/04/2025Dear Traders,
There is no strong bullish momentum observed in gold, and it seems to be moving within a descending channel. Meanwhile, the dollar index has entered a reversal phase. I expect the price to drop into the 3220–3230 zone to gather momentum, A new update will be shared soon.
If you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza
Falling into range oscillation, just get the rhythm pointAnalysis of gold market trend
On Thursday, the gold price remained in the 4H channel, and the middle and lower tracks were in the range of 3370-3260, with overall resistance to decline and correction; this trend is also normal;
1: In the early stage, the market fluctuated rapidly with a hundred points rise and fall, and the kinetic energy consumption was large, so the short-term trend returned to the consolidation trend later;
2: The fundamentals stopped, the technical demand was corrected, and the two resonated, and the gold price could only fluctuate and consolidate in the range; the analysis framework given yesterday was treated according to two intervals; they were 3370-3260 and 3370-3480; the strong and weak dividing point was 3370 above and below;
We can also see that at the position of 3370, the gold price has been under pressure for 2 consecutive times and fell for 2 consecutive times; it can be seen that the strong and weak dividing point of the position above and below 3370!
At present, the market:
1: Trend: There is no trend for the time being, and the range is high, the large range is 3480-3260; the bull trend is stagnant, and the bear trend stops falling. The trend cannot be judged for the time being;
2: Fundamentals, the future fundamentals will focus on the US debt crisis, trade war tariffs, and subsequent war issues, two core things; and uncertain fundamentals
Today's market:
1: 4 hours, the stochastic indicator golden cross, the main long signal; in terms of form, slow bull rise; the current pressure position of the central axis is near 3370, and the probability of breaking upward is relatively high; therefore, the 4-hour can be treated as a shock rise; but the overall situation remains in the large range of 3480-3260!
2: In the daily K-line, the stochastic indicator diverges periodically, and the death cross is downward, which is a bearish signal; however, the high-level sell-off forms a sideways resistance to the decline, and the sideways support is in the range of 3280-3260; the MACD double-line golden cross is glued, and there is no death cross; the indicators in the daily K-line are contradictory, so the long and short trends are difficult to continue, and more range oscillations and high-level consolidation signals are given;
To sum up: Today's short message is still processed according to the 4-hour range; 3370-3260 range and 3370-3480 range; if it stabilizes at 3370, the range processing will be changed; you can take a pullback to do more, and bet on the 4-hour range oscillation upward, and gradually break through the position of 3370;
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Copper at Resistance: A Short Setup in PlayCopper has reached a strong resistance level on the daily chart.
The uptrend is fading, and visually, all signs point to a correction.
On the hourly chart, a good short entry point is shaping up.
However, the stop needs to be set quite high — 2%. So the position size should be adjusted accordingly — kept small.
GOLD TO 3,260 SELL NOW!!!!!!!Gold made a strong rejections off the two important zone and once that happens new lows is expected from the point of decisions gold made a rejections off the fvg and also on the previous lower high am in now on sell holding till new low is created from this point
3,260 is my goal target
XAUMO | Tactical Market Report – Friday, April 25, 2025
Overall Market Outlook:
The market is currently moving in a clear distribution zone, between 3,337 and 3,346.
There’s strong evidence of a bull trap near the 3,346 high.
Price is failing to stay above the VWAP, and we’re seeing overlapping signals between the HMA5 and EMA21.
A close below 3,329.00 would be a major reversal signal, possibly kicking off a wide downward move.
Session-Based Behavior (Cairo Time):
1. London Session (10:00 AM – 1:00 PM):
Expected Behavior: Fake breakout to attract buyers
Tactics:
Watch for fast moves into the 3,337–3,345 zone
Sell if rejection candles appear (Shooting Star / Bearish Engulfing)
Confirm with divergence or internal support break on the 15-min chart
2. Pre-New York (1:00 PM – 3:00 PM):
Expected Behavior: Tight consolidation and position building
Tactics:
Monitor price around 3,320–3,329
If price stays below VWAP, stick with short positions
Don’t go long unless there’s a real breakout with strong volume + RSI confirmation
3. New York Open (3:30 PM – 4:30 PM):
Expected Behavior: Initial fake move followed by strong momentum
Tactics:
Sell after a break below 3,306 + retest
RSI dropping below 40 = strong bearish momentum confirmation
4. New York Continuation (After 4:30 PM):
Expected Behavior: Continuation in the dominant direction
Tactics:
If price stays under 3,306.50 → continue selling
Use a trailing take profit and adjust based on price movement
Trading Scenarios:
Main Bearish Scenario (Primary Setup):
Entry Options:
Sell Limit at 3,329
Sell Stop at 3,306
Stop Loss Levels:
SL1: 3,341.12
SL2 (Trailing): 3,345.35
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 3,294
TP2: 3,278
TP3: 3,255.74
TP4: 3,226.88
TP5: 3,198.01
Confidence Level: 85%
Why This Trade?
Failed breakout
Clear distribution signals on the chart
Confirmed bull trap above 3,342.82
Alternative Bullish Reversal Scenario (Low Probability):
Entry: Buy Stop at 3,346
Stop Loss: SL at 3,337
Take Profit:
TP1: 3,355
TP2: 3,367.45
Confidence Level: 50%
Conditions Needed:
Ichimoku Cloud breakout
EMA21, EMA8, and HMA5 aligning upward
Bullish RSI divergence + MACD crossover
Structural Outlook (10:00 AM):
Moving Average Cluster (HMA5 + EMA21): 3,307 – 3,310
Institutional Resistance Zone: 3,337 – 3,346
Confirmed Traps:
Bull Traps at 3,342.82 and 3,338.70
Volume Profile:
VWAP = Rejected
VPOC shifted toward 3,294
Large selling volume: 246.69K
=========
Key Economic Events Today (Cairo Time):
4:00 PM – Final US Consumer Confidence (April):
Strong reading = Bullish for USD = Bearish for Gold
Weak reading = Bearish for USD = Bullish for Gold
Evening – US Oil Rig Count:
Increase = Rising inflation expectations → indirect support for Gold
No change = Minor short-term impact
========
XAUMO | Bullish Tactical Plan
Bullish Idea Summary:
Even though the market is under heavy selling pressure, there’s still a chance for a bullish counter move if these technical reversal signals show up:
Reversal candles like a Hammer or Bullish Engulfing near 3,294–3,286 support
A solid breakout above the Ichimoku Cloud at 3,346
Bullish RSI Divergence + MACD Crossover
Conditions for Bullish Activation:
Price must break and hold above 3,346 with rising volume
HMA5, EMA8, and EMA21 must cross upward on both 15-min and 1-hour charts
Must see strong momentum + BBMA reversal confirmation
Buy Scenario Details:
Entry: Buy Stop at 3,346.20
Stop Loss:
SL1: 3,337
SL2 (Trailing): 3,333.15
Targets:
TP1: 3,355.00
TP2: 3,367.45 (weekly high)
TP3: 3,385.00 (Institutional exit zone via BBU)
Confidence Level: 50–60%
Why the caution? Previous breakouts in this range have failed repeatedly.
Final Note:
“Below 3,306, price gets crushed. Above 3,346 is just a distribution trap.
Buying without a real breakout? That’s tactical suicide.
Read the chart, not your wishes.”
Conclusion:
If the bullish scenario plays out today, Friday April 25, 2025, the market may be heading into a short-term rally fueled by temporary momentum after a sharp pullback.
The key to this move is a strong and confirmed breakout above the 3,346 resistance zone. As of now, price is still hesitating below that level, which signals ongoing distribution—or maybe preparation for a breakout.
To confirm the setup, you’ll need:
a clean close above 3,346
upward crossover of HMA5, EMA8, and EMA21 on the 15m and 1h
RSI crossing 55 and MACD flipping positive
Only then does the Buy Stop at 3,346.20 become a serious play, with stops placed smartly at 3,337 and a trailing stop at 3,333.15 to avoid fakeouts.
Initial targets are 3,355, then 3,367.45, and finally 3,385 as the stretch goal—an institutional area where profit-taking is likely.
Still, with confidence only around 50–60%, this trade needs clear technical confirmation before execution.
If the market drops back below 3,329, the bearish plan remains the default.
The price decides. We just stay ready.
How To Customize The 1 Minute Scalping IndicatorThis tutorial explains each setting of the 1 Minute Scalping Indicator in detail so you understand exactly how to adjust your settings to get the results you would like from the indicator.
Here is a list of the details we discuss:
How to fix loading errors
Tooltips that explain each setting for your reference
Trade modes and how they are affected by other settings
Average candle size rejection parameters
Higher timeframe candle filters, settings and levels
External indicator trend filtering capabilities and how to set them up correctly
Stoploss and take profit calculations and settings you can adjust
Signal arrow customization options
Candle coloring adjustments
Visual/styling options
Make sure to watch the whole video so you fully understand how each setting affects the indicator for best results.
Gold Analysis The recent gold rally has achieved all anticipated price targets in a remarkably short timeframe, subsequently attracting profit-taking activity. These sellers are currently dominating price action, creating what appears to be a potential head and shoulders pattern with the head at $3,500 and neckline at $3,280. Should the 4-hour candle close below this neckline, it would confirm the pattern formation, suggesting a downside target of $3,080. The RSI indicator further supports this bearish outlook, with a clear negative divergence forming over the past three days while remaining below the 50 level
SAXO:XAUUSD AMEX:GLD AMEX:IAU COMEX:GC1!
Bonds Could be Forming a Big Low The drop in bonds took them down the 76 retracement level and this is where we're stalled out, at least for now.
Action in this area is consistent with a head and shoulders - and if that pattern is in play then we'd be into the rally in bonds now.
Something that's always worth noticing is when there's a lot of talk of something dramatic happening in something but it doesn't make a new extreme.
During the last drop in bonds there was extreme bear sentiment (It's not even something I'm all that interested in and I was seeing it everywhere) but this drop has so far failed to break the low and, perhaps critically, remains above the 76. Currently in the pending reversal zone we have the formation of a possible reversal pattern.
This is a premise we can invert to the yields also.
If these reversals play out, they predict that these start to change really quickly. We'd be heading out of the late reversal stages and into the early trend.
We'd expect to see bonds sharp up and yields sharp down.
Failure of these levels as reversals would imply a far stronger trend in these, but I do think the odds skew better towards reversals here as per the TA norms.
MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 04/25/2025MES!/ES1! Day Trade Plan for 04/25/2025
📈 5530 5560
📉 5475 5445
Thanks to all my followers! Truly appreciate the support!
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Gold’s Next Trap? Don't Blink“Gold’s Next Trap? Don't Blink. 👀💣”
📅 Daily XAUUSD Sniper Plan – April 25, 2025
Clean structure. No noise. Just logic.
🧭 MARKET CONTEXT
• Macro: No major USD catalyst. Yesterday's Unemployment Claims were neutral → price action driven by structure & liquidity.
• Sentiment: Gold remains in premium territory but failed to hold above 3355 in NY → suggesting smart money profit-taking.
• HTF Bias: Bullish (D1 trend intact, HLs hold)
• LTF Flow: Bearish intraday – CHoCH & BOS on M30-H1
• Key Event Backdrop: Powell not speaking today, but market still reflects uncertainty from recent Trump vs. Powell tensions.
📐 STRUCTURE & SMC FLOW
• M30–H1: Internal CHoCH formed after price failed to break above 3355
• Liquidity: Sweeps above 3353 and below 3312 → now hovering around internal equilibrium
• SMC Confluence: OBs, FVGs, and EMA alignment used for all entries
• FIB Zones: Discount for buys (3280–3310), Premium for sells (3385+)
🔻 SELL SCENARIOS
Sell #1 – 3385–3392
🧨 Premium retest zone + H1 OB + Gap mitigation
• SL: 3401
• TP1: 3355
• TP2: 3333
• TP3: 3306
🎯 Confluence: H1 OB, NY liquidity above, internal CHoCH
Sell #2 – 3411–3422
💣 Extended premium fill – final imbalance trap
• SL: 3432
• TP1: 3372
• TP2: 3333
• TP3: 3306
🎯 Confluence: Unmitigated FVG + fib extension 1.272 + clean wick rejection zone
🟢 BUY SCENARIOS
Buy #1 – 3333–3338
🔋 HTF OB + H4 structure demand
• SL: 3322
• TP1: 3360
• TP2: 3385
• TP3: 3410
🎯 Confluence: HTF FVG, historical bounce zone, EMA100 support
Buy #2 – 3284–3288
🧱 Sniper reentry zone from structure base
• SL: 3270
• TP1: 3312
• TP2: 3340
• TP3: 3372
🎯 Confluence: Previous sniper entry, structure HL, strong OB zone
📊 TREND RECAP
• HTF Trend: Bullish
• LTF Structure: Currently in retracement mode
• Bias: Neutral to bearish for early London, bullish only on clean 3333 reaction or deeper dip to 3284
🫂 COMMUNITY CALL
"Gold’s Next Trap? Don't Blink. 👀💣"
Will 3450 Hold? Or is Gold Just Getting Started? 🔄🧠
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Head and Shoulder pattern XAUUSD GOLD Update | H4 Timeframe 🙌
We have been observed that in H4 Timeframe market is creating a proper Head and Shoulder pattern ❗️
We have been set our trendline which is indicated that previous h4 rejected that area and try to push himself from that point
We also set our observation area at point
If market break our trendline area then expected 3280 further 3260.00 would be last trigger point
On the otherhand if market can not break the trendline we are expecting near our Resistance area at 3348.00 ❗️
#XAUUSD
Interpretation of 4.25 Gold Short-term Operation IdeasFrom the technical analysis of the hourly market, yesterday's low was at $3,306, and the rebound just now showed an obvious stop signal at this position. Based on this, the current short-term suppression level can refer to $3,315, and the higher level is $3,328. For short-term investors, you can consider waiting for the gold price to rebound to around $3,315 to arrange short orders and continue to be bearish on the gold price. The first thing to pay attention to below is the support of the low point just touched at $3,287. If this support level is lost, the next key support level will be $3,260, the first low point on the previous downward journey. If $3,260 is also effectively broken, the short-selling force will be further released, and the gold price may face a larger decline.