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ALUMINIUM Bullish Flag breakout The Week Ahead 24 Feb ‘25The ALUMINIUM price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation bullish flag pattern. The key trading level is at the 2593 level, the previous consolidation price range and also the 50 Day Moving Average zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 2593 level could target the upside resistance at 2670 followed by the 2708 and 2730 levels over the longer timeframe. Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 2593 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of the 2540 (200 Day Moving Average) support level followed by 2480. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:ALUMINIUM
by TradeNation
CRUDE - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.2-21.2 / FORECAST🛢 CRUDE – 12th week of the base cycle (28 weeks), mature 1st phase. Holding the short position from the February 3 extreme forecast. The first phase of the base cycle is not yet complete but is very mature. Crude is pressing against strong support at 69.80 on the April futures contract, which must either be broken or eroded. I believe the maturity of the 1st phase in this context is not coincidental. ⚠️ I maintain my bearish stance, which I explained in my crude oil post from summer 2024. Next pivot forecast for crude: February 24. Next extreme forecast: March 3.
NYMEX:CL1!
by irinawest
Natural Gas (XNG/USD) – Big Move ComingNat Gas is coiling inside a symmetrical triangle, meaning a breakout is coming soon. The big question is: which direction? Key Levels to Watch Resistance: $4.20 - $4.22 → If we break and hold above, bulls could take over. Support: $4.10 - $4.12 → If this breaks, we could see a bigger sell-off. Right now, the setup leans slightly bearish, but I’m not convinced until we get a clear break. A move below $4.10 could send us toward $4.00 - $3.80, while a breakout above $4.22 could push us to $4.30 - $4.40. What’s Driving the Market? Bullish Case (Higher Demand) A strong cold wave in the U.S. is increasing heating demand. Production freeze-offs due to extreme weather could tighten supply. Bearish Case (More Supply Coming In) U.S. production is rising, and pipeline expansions will add even more supply. Possible Russia-Ukraine ceasefire could bring more gas back into Europe, reducing global demand pressure. Both sides have strong arguments, which is why this triangle is so important—once we break out, it’ll tell us which force is stronger. How I’d Trade It If we break below $4.10, I’d look for a short: Target 1: $4.00 Target 2: $3.80 Stop loss: Above $4.15 If we break above $4.22, I’d consider a long: Target 1: $4.30 Target 2: $4.40 Stop loss: Below $4.15 Final Thoughts With market open coming up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a gap at the open, which could hint at which way this triangle is about to break. I’m neutral for now but leaning slightly bearish, unless we get a strong push above $4.20. Let’s see how this plays out—what’s your bias? Breakout up or down?
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Mad-Hatter
1
XAU/USD Weekly Outlook – Bearish Wave Confirmation?Gold (XAU/USD) is showing a potential Elliott Wave structure on the 2H timeframe, with a completed 5-wave impulsive move followed by an ABC correction. 🔴 Key Resistance: 2947 🔵 Key Support: 2923 📊 Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ A rejection from resistance (2947) could confirm a wave C down to the 2907 - 2893 zone. 2️⃣ A clean break below 2923 could trigger further downside momentum. 3️⃣ If bulls reclaim 2947, we could see another upside attempt. ⚠️ Bearish Bias: Watching for confirmation before entering shorts! 📉 👍 Like & Follow for more updates! 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by NexusTradesZone
$XAU CONTINUED/FINALISEDGood Afternoon Traders, Past two trades presented.. Rough…. But overall successful with the current stops on $2916 safe & the scaling in positions at $2917.89 mentioned in the ideas of 19/02 active. Moving forward. Big week for gold coming up and we should be forming an important low or high imo. Obviously my targets are into $2980 so the bias here is bullish. $$$2938.5$$$ That Guy. In sight and still remains the most significant handle in this range to provide a breakout. I’m looking for Asia to give us downside into entry off the bat before popping $2938.5 and setting the stage for the day… Two profiles above. Both RR1:4+ First drop in at $2929 handle. I do believe the previous low is in concrete, and $2916 will hold.. Second drop is a more safer approach in at $2938.5 checking if we previously left $2929/31 respectively to place stops. If we get the moving on this trade and hold $2938.5 it’s straight to the bank! 🏦 Cheers to yet another Banging week!!! 🫶🏽 LFG!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by JupahduhX
Gold Price Analysis (1H Timeframe)Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading inside an ascending channel, showing a bullish trend. However, a key trigger line at $2,936 will determine the next move. 🔹 Bullish Scenario: If price stays above $2,936, we can expect a push toward $3,028 and potentially $3,085. A breakout above $3,085 would confirm strong bullish momentum, targeting new highs. 🔻 Bearish Scenario: A break below $2,936 could signal weakness, leading to a drop to $2,880. If selling pressure continues, the next major support is at $2,803. 📌 Trading Plan: 🔸 Long Entry: If price holds above $2,936, with a target of $3,028 - $3,085. 🔸 Short Entry: If price breaks below $2,936, targeting $2,880 - $2,803. 🔸 Risk Management: Use stop-losses near key levels to minimize risk. 📊 Watch Volume & Price Action! A breakout with strong volume confirms the trend direction. Low volume means potential fakeouts—wait for confirmation before entering trades. 📢 What do you think? Share your views in the comments! 🚀
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by PIPsOptimizer
GOLD (XAUUSD) at Key Inflection—Bullish Continuation or Pullback 1. Top-Down Bias Weekly: • Trend: Strongly bullish, printing Higher Highs and Higher Lows since late 2022. Price is above all major SMAs (10, 50, 100, 200) and well above the Ichimoku Cloud. • Momentum: RSI ~75 (overbought but can persist in a strong uptrend). MACD & ADX confirm robust bullish momentum. • Conclusion: No major signs of topping; the long-term outlook remains bullish. Daily: • Trend: Continues the bullish structure, also with Higher Highs and Higher Lows. Price is above 10, 50, 100, and 200 SMAs. • Momentum: RSI ~70–73 (overbought), MACD still positive, though histogram is flattening. Ichimoku Cloud well below price. • Conclusion: Overall bullish, though mildly extended—pullbacks are possible but not guaranteed to reverse the trend. 4H: • Trend: Still bullish but in short-term consolidation between ~2,920 and ~2,950. Indicators (MACD, RSI) show a pause in momentum. • Conclusion: The 4H structure is intact but currently range-bound, awaiting a breakout or deeper pullback. 1H (Intraday): • Trend: Choppy, sideways range ~2,920–2,950. Neutral RSI (~50–55), MACD near zero, reflecting reduced volatility. • Conclusion: Intraday price is in a holding pattern. Bullish bias remains from higher timeframes, but short-term direction is undecided. Overall Market Bias: • Primary: Bullish on higher timeframes (Weekly, Daily). • Near-Term: Range/consolidation on lower timeframes (4H/1H). Likely scenario: either a breakout above ~2,950 or a retest of support near ~2,920–2,900 before resuming upwards. 2. Key Levels & Confluences 1. Weekly & Daily Support Zones • 2,600–2,620: Major weekly demand / bullish order block. • 2,740–2,760: Important daily support / bullish OB cluster. • 2,662–2,710: Additional daily OB where institutions have shown buying interest. 2. 4H & 1H Support Zones • 2,920–2,930: Prominent intraday support (multiple tests). • 2,898–2,900: Local 4H OB that has sparked previous bounces. 3. Resistance / Supply Zones • 2,950–2,960: Short-term ceiling where price has stalled multiple times (4H/1H). • Above that, fewer clear reference points, but psychological levels around 3,000 and 3,125 (a Fibonacci extension) come into play. 4. Fibonacci Confluences • Retracements (Daily/4H) from ~2,580 swing low to ~2,950 swing high: • 23.6% ~2,879, • 38.2% ~2,800, • 50% ~2,765. • Extensions: Next key extension near 3,125 (Daily 1.618 or 2.618 from previous swing). 5. Trend Lines / Channels • Long-term rising channels on Weekly/Daily; price is near the upper bounds. • 4H ascending wedge converging around 2,950 (resistance) and ~2,920 (support). 3. Scenario 1: Bullish Continuation Narrative: The higher timeframes (Weekly, Daily) are clearly bullish, and the recent consolidation on the 4H/1H may be a pause before another leg up. A confirmed breakout above ~2,950 would suggest continuation toward psychological or Fibonacci-based levels (e.g., 3,000 or 3,125). 3.1 Aggressive / High-Risk Approach • Entry: • Enter on a small timeframe signal (e.g., 1H/2H bullish engulfing) near 2,930–2,920 support or on an early breakout above 2,950. • You’re relying on minimal confirmation, such as RSI turning up from ~50 on the 1H or a quick retest of 2,945–2,950. • Stop-Loss: • Tight stop just below 2,920 (recent swing low), given the aggressive nature. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Potential for high R:R if price resumes the uptrend immediately. • Cons: Higher chance of false breakouts or whipsaws in a choppy intraday environment. 3.2 Moderate Risk • Entry Conditions: • Wait for 4H candle close above the consolidation ceiling (~2,950). Alternatively, watch for a bullish MACD cross on 4H (MACD line crossing above signal line). • Stop-Loss: • Below the newly formed higher low (e.g., beneath 2,920 if that’s where price last bounced). • This gives a bit more breathing room than the aggressive approach. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Reduced likelihood of being faked out by intraday spikes. • Cons: Might miss a portion of the move if the breakout is swift. 3.3 Conservative / Low-Risk • Entry Conditions: • Look for a decisive 4H or Daily close above 2,950–2,960. Confirm multiple indicators: e.g., RSI > 50 (on 4H), MACD positive, and price solidly above Ichimoku Cloud on 4H. • Stop-Loss: • Place below a larger timeframe pivot—e.g., below ~2,900 or even the daily support near 2,880–2,900 for extra safety. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Stronger confirmation lowers the risk of false breakouts. • Cons: You enter at a higher price, reducing initial R:R but increasing probability of a true trend follow-through. Targets & Management (All Bullish Profiles) • Target 1 (T1): ~2,980–3,000 (psychological handle + near-term extension). • Target 2 (T2): ~3,125 (next significant Fibonacci extension). • Trailing Stops / Partial Take-Profit: • Consider taking partial profit at T1 and moving the stop-loss to breakeven. • If momentum remains strong, hold a portion for T2. • Invalidation: • A Daily close below ~2,900–2,880 (key 4H support + near 50% retracement from recent swing) would severely undermine the bullish thesis. 4. Scenario 2: Bearish Reversal or Deeper Correction Narrative: Overbought conditions on Weekly/Daily RSI, plus slowing momentum on 4H/1H, raise the possibility of a deeper correction. A failure to break 2,950 or a definitive break below 2,920 could trigger profit-taking and short-term selling. 4.1 Aggressive / High-Risk Approach • Entry Conditions: • Short near 2,950 on intraday rejection signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing on 1H) or a quick break below 2,920 with minimal confirmation. • Stop-Loss: • Tight stop just above 2,960 (local swing high). • Pros/Cons: • Pros: If the price swiftly breaks down, R:R could be high. • Cons: High probability of whipsaw if the broader uptrend quickly resumes. 4.2 Moderate Risk • Entry Conditions: • Wait for a 4H close below ~2,920 and RSI to stay below 50 on 4H. Possibly a negative MACD cross as well. • Stop-Loss: • Above the retest zone (e.g., ~2,950), giving enough room for volatility. • Pros/Cons: • Pros: Better confirmation than an aggressive short. • Cons: Might miss initial pips of the move if it’s fast. 4.3 Conservative / Low-Risk • Entry Conditions: • Look for a Daily close below ~2,900–2,880 (major support region), plus confirmation of a bearish Ichimoku signal or MACD crossing into negative territory on Daily. • Stop-Loss: • Above a well-defined structural high (e.g., back above 2,950 or the daily pivot). • Pros/Cons: • Pros: High probability that a serious downtrend is underway if it breaks major daily support. • Cons: Much later entry and possibly smaller potential reward if the biggest part of the drop has already happened. Targets & Management (All Bearish Profiles) • Target 1 (T1): ~2,880–2,860 (next known support and volume shelf). • Target 2 (T2): ~2,800 or 2,765 (stronger daily demand and 50% retracement zone). • Invalidation: • If price reclaims 2,950 and closes above it on 4H or Daily, the bearish thesis is likely invalid. • Partial Profit: • Consider taking partials at T1; move stop to break-even. • If momentum accelerates, hold a runner for T2. 5. Risk Management & Position Sizing 1. ATR & Volatility Awareness • Weekly ATR (~82) and Daily ATR (~37) show significant volatility potential. Intraday ATR (~10–15) suggests decent range swings. • If volatility is high, consider smaller position sizes or wider stops in line with your risk tolerance. 2. R:R Ratios • Aim for at least 1:2 risk-to-reward. Higher timeframes support bigger moves, so 1:3 or more is possible if trend continuation unfolds. 3. Timeframe Alignment • If Weekly and Daily remain clearly bullish, size up more comfortably on bullish setups. • If lower timeframes conflict with higher timeframes, reduce position size until clarity returns. 4. Partial Profit Strategies • Lock in gains at first target; move stop-loss to breakeven or trail stops to protect capital. • This approach balances capturing upside/downside while still leaving room for extended moves. 6. Extra Notes / Contradictions 1. Contradictory Signals • Overbought RSI on Weekly/Daily vs. neutral RSI on 4H/1H can lead to short-term pullbacks that do not necessarily invalidate the main uptrend. Consider using intraday timeframes for partial profit or short hedges—while respecting the larger bullish context. 2. Event & News Catalysts • Macroeconomic data (e.g., Fed rate decisions, inflation reports) can trigger abrupt changes in Gold. Always be mindful of key news releases. 3. Ranging vs. Trending • If 4H/1H remain range-bound, you can trade the edges (2,920 support, 2,950 resistance) intraday with tight stops. For bigger trend moves, wait for a definitive breakout or breakdown. 4. Market Sessions • Gold tends to have higher volatility during London and NY opens. Entries are often more reliable in these sessions vs. low-volume hours. 7. Final Summary 1. Top-Down Bias: Long-term bullish (Weekly, Daily) with short-term consolidation (4H/1H). The overarching structure favors buying dips unless major supports fail. 2. Key Levels: • Support: 2,920–2,930 (intraday), 2,880–2,900 (4H), 2,740–2,760 (Daily). • Resistance: 2,950–2,960 (near-term), then 3,000 & 3,125 as potential extension targets. 3. Bullish Scenario: • Aggressive: Early entry on 1H signals near 2,930 or quick breakout above 2,950. • Moderate: 4H close above 2,950, stop below the new higher low. • Conservative: Wait for a firm Daily/4H break above 2,950–2,960 with multiple indicator confirmations. • Targets: T1 ~2,980–3,000; T2 ~3,125. • Invalidation: Sustained break below ~2,880–2,900. 4. Bearish Scenario: • Aggressive: Short on immediate rejection at 2,950 or a quick break below 2,920. • Moderate: 4H close below 2,920, confirming lower highs and negative momentum. • Conservative: Daily close below ~2,900–2,880 with bearish indicator confirmation. • Targets: T1 ~2,860–2,880; T2 ~2,800–2,765. • Invalidation: 4H close back above ~2,950 invalidates near-term bearishness. 5. Risk Management: • Adjust stops/position size to align with ATR volatility. • Seek >= 1:2 R:R. • Scale out profits at T1, move stops to break-even, aim for T2 if momentum persists. 6. Extra Notes: • Keep an eye on major news events (Fed statements, inflation data). • Short-term intraday trades can deviate from the long-term bullish bias; short with caution if going countertrend. Overall: The Weekly and Daily timeframes strongly favor the bulls, but short-term charts are consolidating. Price action above 2,950 could open the door to 3,000 and beyond. Conversely, failure to hold 2,920 might bring a deeper pullback toward 2,880 or lower—though that would still be a correction within a larger uptrend unless major supports are lost. Always tailor your risk management to the chosen entry style (Aggressive vs. Moderate vs. Conservative) and remain attentive to key market-moving events.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EliteMarketAnalysis
TRENDSInstrument: The chart appears to be tracking XAU/USD (Gold), as indicated on the right-hand side. • Trend: The price is moving upwards within a parallel channel, showing a consistent uptrend. • Fibonacci Retracement & Extensions: • Various Fibonacci levels are marked, which act as potential support and resistance zones. • The 0.786 Fibonacci level is a key retracement area currently being tested. • Projected Move: • A green highlighted area indicates a potential bullish move, suggesting an anticipated breakout toward higher levels. • The 1.618 Fibonacci extension level aligns with the target. • Support & Resistance: • Several horizontal lines indicate previous highs and lows, likely acting as key decision points. • The price recently retested the lower boundary of the channel and bounced back, reinforcing the trend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by sufyanmirzaw
MINDSET: Trading is The Only True Path to Financial FreedomFinancial freedom—it’s the goal everyone chases but few ever reach. The world sells you a million ways to get rich: grinding a 9-to-5, climbing the corporate ladder, starting a business, investing in real estate. But the truth? Trading is the only path that offers complete financial autonomy. No bosses, no employees, no overhead—just you, the markets, and the ability to scale your wealth indefinitely. The Illusion of Traditional Wealth-Building People spend decades in careers that leave them dependent on someone else’s paycheck. Even business owners and investors face external risks—regulations, economic downturns, and unpredictable market shifts that limit their control. Trading, however, is a pure meritocracy. The market doesn’t care about your background, degrees, or connections. It rewards skill, discipline, and adaptability. Why Trading Stands Alone Unlimited Earning Potential – Unlike a job, where your salary is capped, trading offers the ability to scale indefinitely. Complete Time Freedom – Once profitable, you decide when and how much you work. A few well-placed trades can replace weeks of grinding at a traditional job. No Middlemen – You don’t need clients, customers, or employees. Your success is fully in your hands. Geographical Independence – As long as you have an internet connection, you can trade from anywhere in the world. The Harsh Reality: Trading Isn’t Easy Now, let’s be real—most traders fail because they treat it like a lottery ticket instead of a skill. They chase signals, blow accounts, and then blame the markets. But those who master the psychological and technical aspects of trading gain something no job or business can provide: total financial sovereignty. Are You Ready to Take Control? Trading is the only financial vehicle where you set the rules and have the power to create generational wealth—without relying on an employer, a system, or a customer base. The real question is: Are you willing to put in the work to claim that freedom? Let’s talk in the comments. #TradingFreedom #NoMore9to5 #FinancialIndependence
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by TLTurnerTV