xauusdGold enters support by reaching daily trend line
If gold continues to hold support
Gold is expected to reach its previous high again
Futures market
Gold in a Shifting Macro Landscape Fundamentals First: Why is Gold Falling While DXY is Too?
Normally, gold and the U.S. dollar share an inverse relationship (which means, when DXY weakens, gold rises). But recently, this correlation has broken down, and that divergence is a loud macro signal.
What’s Happening:
Trade Deal Optimism:
Headlines suggest the U.S. is nearing a resolution with China and other partners. With reduced geopolitical tension, investors are reallocating from safe-haven assets like gold into risk-on trades like equities and crypto.
Iran-Israel Ceasefire:
The temporary cooling of conflict has revived risk appetite. Traders are rotating out of war hedges (like gold and oil) and into tech, growth, and EM plays.
Real Yields Still Elevated:
Despite a softening Fed narrative, U.S. real yields remain positive, keeping pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. The fact that gold couldn't rally even as the 10-year note softened post-Moody's downgrade could be telling.
My Perspective:
This is the first clear signal in months that geopolitical hedging may have peaked. When gold decouples from its safe-haven narrative despite macro uncertainty, that often precedes a structural rotation phase, especially if institutional flows favor equities.
Technical Breakdown
Gold has broken below its 50-day SMA at $3,322 and is trading in the lower third of its 3-month range. While the daily candles show increasing selling pressure, especially on lower highs (a sign of weakening bullish momentum)
RSI : Falling toward 40, with no bullish divergence yet.
Support Level : $3,176: Previous swing low
Resistance Level : $3,444: previous swing high
What This Move Might Be Telling Us
When gold sells off on dollar weakness and geopolitical calm, the market isn’t just relaxing. It is rotating. The de-grossing of gold-heavy hedges: Some hedge funds may be taking profit on gold-heavy exposure from Q1’s rally.
Rise of risk appetite despite cracks: Markets are forward-pricing trade peace and earnings resilience, possibly too early. Gold might not be in trouble, but it’s on the bench. Unless something reignites fear (e.g., Fed policy mistake, Middle East flashpoint, or economic shock), capital may stay elsewhere.
#202526 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Day and I hope you are well.
#mcl1 - wti crude oil futures
comment: Yeah I don’t know about this one. Your guess is as good as mine. I could even see this touching 63 before going higher again. Most erratic and extreme price action the past 2 weeks, so maybe wait a bit before jumping the train here.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 63 - 80
bull case: Bulls don’t have much. They could not close one decent bar at the high since 2025-06-11 and despite all the bull spikes, we only sold afterwards and are back below 65 where the extreme breakout happened. Best guess here is that we stay above 63 and go sideways. Sideways up to where? No idea. Could be 68, could be 70.
Invalidation is below 63
bear case: Too extreme. Both sides have to take quick profits or the next spike will take them away again. So most likely sideways in a range until a newsbomb hit again. Range could be 63 - 68.
Invalidation is above 79
short term: Neutral. Not touching this unless someone threatens me with a gun.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-22: Let’s leave this as “todo” for now. No read on this and I won’t make stuff up just to post something.
XAU/USD Analysis – June 30, 2025✅ Primary Scenario (Bearish Bias):
Short-term move up expected:
Price is expected to fill the Fair Value Gap (FVG) around 3,305 – 3,306.
This level aligns with a key resistance zone and also the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, making it a strong area for a potential bearish reaction.
Downtrend continuation:
If price reacts from the resistance zone, we expect the downtrend to continue, targeting:
📍 3,256 – liquidity zone
📍 3,245 – additional liquidity below
📍 3,228 – unfilled FVG
Gold's 3290-3300 Support : Next Week Aims for Gap-Up Retest Last week, gold opened with a gap-up on Monday 🔼, then trended downward 🔽.
⚡ Notably, the 3290-3300 support zone held firmly from Monday to Thursday, demonstrating strong resilience.
🌱 The price plunged to around 3255 on Friday but rebounded promptly.
🔥 For next week, the opening may surge toward the 3290-3300 zone, warranting close attention.
🚀 Buy@3260 - 3270
🚀 TP 3280 - 3290 -3300
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
XAUUSD/ GOLD M45 OUTLOOK XAUUSD 45M 🚀
Trendline broken — bulls in control!
Above 3317, aiming for 3349+
SL: 3296 🔒 | TP: 3349 🎯
Stay sharp, lock profits! ⚡️✨
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Tuesday, 1st July 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News(Red Folder):
-Fed Chair Powell Speaks
-ISM Manufacturing PMI
-JOLTS Job Openings
Notes:
- Strong bullish momentum with strong
daily rejection
-Looking continuation buy to
target level
- Potential BUY if there's
confirmation on lower timeframe
- Pivot point: 3270
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
XAUUSD short from red zoneWill give gold a short a shot. It is pretty much a technical trade only. I will look to take a 200 pips out of it.
Goodluck
06/30/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis
EOD accountability report: +212
Sleep: 7 hours
Overall health: Good, caught up on workout and sleep over the weekend.
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 2/4 success**
— 12:20 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal :x:
— 12:30 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!:check:
— 1:55 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Buy Signal :x:
— 2:00 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check:
**What’s are some news or takeaway from today?
and What major news or event impacted the market today?
**
The X1 Signals today has been happening after market structure signals and usally that means MM is going to change the direction to the opposite way to scam us. Based on that, I decided to lock out my account after making $200 today so i don't get caught in the scam.
News
EU TO ACCEPT TRUMP’S UNIVERSAL TARIFF BUT SEEKS KEY EXEMPTIONS — 2:07 PM
What are the critical support levels to watch?
--> Above 6240= Bullish, Under 6210= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
Gold Wave Analysis – 30 June 2025
- Gold reversed from support level 3250.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 3400.00
Gold recently reversed up from the support level 3250.00 (which stopped wave (b) at the end of May, as can be seen from the daily Gold chart below) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May.
The support level 3250.00 was further strengthened by the upward-sloping support trendline from February.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 3400.00, which stopped the previous short-term correction ii.
going longit swept that level expecting going long
and it should move so impulsively
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
Silver sideways consolidation support at 3500Silver – Technical Analysis
The Silver price action continues to exhibit a bullish sentiment, underpinned by a prevailing rising trend. However, recent intraday moves indicate a corrective pullback, reflecting short-term consolidation within the broader uptrend.
Key Technical Levels:
Support:
3,500 – Primary support and previous consolidation zone; critical for maintaining bullish structure.
3,450 – Secondary support; potential downside target if 3,500 fails.
3,390 – Key lower support; aligns with a broader demand area.
Resistance:
3,720 – Immediate upside resistance; first target on a bullish bounce.
3,790 – Intermediate resistance; aligns with recent swing highs.
3,850 – Long-term resistance target; marks the upper boundary of the current bullish channel.
Scenario Analysis:
Bullish Continuation (Base Case):
A bounce from the 3,500 level would affirm the corrective pullback as temporary, with potential for a bullish continuation targeting 3,720, followed by 3,790 and 3,850 over a longer timeframe.
Bearish Reversal (Alternative Scenario):
A daily close below 3,500 would undermine the current bullish outlook and signal a deeper retracement, with downside risk toward 3,450 and potentially 3,390, where structural support may stabilize price.
Conclusion:
Silver remains structurally bullish, with the current pullback offering a potential entry point within the trend. The 3,500 level is the key pivot—holding above it supports further upside continuation, while a breakdown below would raise the risk of a deeper correction. Traders should watch for price action confirmation at this level to validate the next directional move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
GOLD / XAUUSD TodayMy SSM Structure change to strong bearish
My view is on chart.
I expect move up a little bit but after this new low
XAU/USD 30 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on two separate occasions forming a double top which is a bearish reversal pattern. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
On H4 TF price has been failing to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold price bull-bear life and death line--3300Gold price bull-bear life and death line--3300
Gold rose in the Asian session today
Buy on dips and technical rebound:
Last Friday (June 28), gold fell 2%, hitting a low of $3247/ounce. Some investors believed that it was oversold in the short term and bought on dips during the Asian session.
Key support level of $3,270:
From a technical perspective, there is a concentrated area of institutional buying near $3,270, which will trigger a short-term rebound.
Near $3,300 is still a strong resistance range.
Although Powell maintains a hawkish stance, the market is still betting on a rate cut in September (with a probability of more than 90%), and the decline in the US dollar index supports gold.
As shown in Figure 4h:
The current fluctuation range of gold price: 3240-3300, with a fluctuation range of nearly 60 US dollars
Short selling strategy:
Sell: 3295-3300 range
Stop loss: 3305
Target: 3280-3270-3250
Buy 1: 3250 (conservative)
Buy 2: 3270 (stable)
Buy 3: 3280 (aggressive)
Stop loss: 3240
Target: 3300-3320+
It is recommended to pay attention to the long-short strength dividing line near 3300
Standing at 3300, the market will continue to rise this week
As long as the gold price is below 3300, take a high-altitude mentality
OIL IDEA /30 06 25So we are looking for this Short position, but first we need a better Premium position
WTI OIL TRADING IDEA 1 JULY 2025WTI Crude Oil is currently trading around $64.77, following a recent rejection from the $76–78 resistance zone. This area represents a strong supply zone and coincides with the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel, indicating institutional selling pressure. From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, this move appears to be a liquidity grab above previous highs, where price tapped into a bearish order block before aggressively reversing. Price action confirms this bearish sentiment, with a visible rejection and bearish engulfing candle suggesting that sellers are defending the region aggressively.
On the supply and demand side, the $76.77–78.30 zone is the immediate supply zone, while the next key resistance above lies between $79.37 and $93.94. On the downside, demand lies at $58.69–64.00, with major demand and liquidity resting around $55.00 and $51.79. Fundamentally, the recent spike in oil prices was largely driven by heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly renewed conflict concerns between Iran and Israel. However, as no direct disruption to oil supply has occurred, the geopolitical risk premium is now being priced out. Additionally, concerns over global demand, especially from China and Europe, along with a gradual and controlled U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) refill, are putting downward pressure on prices despite OPEC+ maintaining output cuts.
Based on this analysis, the trade idea favors a bearish swing setup. A short position around $64.00–66.00 could be considered, targeting $58.69 as the first take-profit level, followed by $55.00 and $51.79 for extended targets. The stop loss should be placed just above $78.50 to allow room beyond the supply zone and trendline. This setup offers a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:3. However, if price breaks and holds above $78.50, it may signal a structural shift toward bullish momentum, likely driven by unexpected geopolitical escalation or a change in OPEC strategy. In such a case, the bias should flip to bullish, with potential targets around $89.00–93.00.
Gold 1H: Potential Rejection or Continuation PlayGold (XAUUSD) Technical Outlook – 1H Timeframe
Price is currently reacting near 3275, with a potential scenario for either a bullish continuation toward the 3287–3290 zone or a rejection that could push the market back down toward the 3250–3245 support area.
Key levels to monitor:
🔹 Resistance: 3287–3290
🔹 Mid-support: 3270
🔹 Lower support: 3250–3245
I will wait for price confirmation around these levels before considering new entries.
Bitcoin UpdateWe’re back looking at the #Bitcoin chart. While BTC stays above the 55-day MA (currently at 101,116), we remain overall bullish. But here’s the catch:
🔍 What I’m watching:
• The MACD is still below zero — no clear buy signal yet.
• The RSI is encouraging (above 50), but…
• 📉 No surge in volume = caution.
• DMI also not giving a strong green light.
👉 So, we might need more consolidation before the next leg higher. Patience is key!
If BTC clears these highs?
🎯 I’d target ~114,000 (top of the long-term channel since 2021).
For now, staying positive but waiting for that volume confirmation. 💪
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XAGUSDSpeculators remain net long on silver (bullish overall).
But the long positions decreased this week, showing some profit-taking or caution.
Silver Bias: Still bullish, but momentum is weakening.
XAUUSD/ 1D LONGCombining the channel pattern analysis and Sk System, will we see such a move in GOLD? Will the history repeat itself?
Good Luck
Gold short from ltf3270 is a nice area for a short.
A very nice setup with a great risk reward ratio.
Let us see what this week brings on.
"BREAKOUT ALERT! XAU/EUR Bear Raid – Get In Before The Drop!"🤑 GOLD HEIST ALERT! 🚨 XAU/EUR Bearish Raid Plan (Thief Trading Style) 💰🔥
🌟 Greetings, Market Pirates & Profit Snatchers! 🌟
Based on the 🔥Thief Trading Strategy🔥, we’re plotting a high-stakes bearish raid on XAU/EUR ("The Gold Market"). Our mission? Short the breakout & loot the downside!
🎯 TRADE SETUP (Scalping/Day Trade)
Entry (Sell Zone) 📉: 2841.00 – Wait for Neutral Level breakout, then strike!
Pro Tip: Place sell-stop below support or sell-limit on pullback (15-30min TF).
Set an ALERT! Don’t miss the breakout moment.
Stop Loss 🛑:
"Stop right there, cowboy! 🤠 If you’re entering on a sell-stop, DO NOT set SL before breakout!
Thief SL Rule: Nearest swing high (30min TF) – Adjust based on your risk & lot size.
Rebels, be warned – stray at your own peril! 🔥
Target 🎯: 2815.00 (Lock profits & escape like a pro thief!)
💡 WHY THIS HEIST? (Bearish Triggers)
Technical Setup: Oversold bounce? Trap. Strong bearish reversal brewing.
Fundamentals: Macro risks, COT data, geopolitics – Gold’s under pressure!
News Alert 🚨: High-impact events ahead! Avoid new trades during news – trail stops to protect gains.
💥 BOOST THE HEIST! 💥
Like & Boost this idea to strengthen our robbery crew! More loot = more winning trades. Stay tuned for the next heist! 🚀💰
⚠️ Disclaimer: Trade at your own risk. This is not financial advice – just a strategic raid plan. Manage risk wisely!
