Market indices
US100 Builds Momentum Toward New HighsUS100 Builds Momentum Toward New Highs
Since yesterday, the US100 has climbed by nearly 1.4%, rising from 23,223 to 23,550.
The bullish trend is strong, and it looks like US100 is preparing for a bigger upward move—possibly aiming to set a new all-time high.
Before continuing higher, US100 may first test the top of the current structure near 23,710, and then push toward 24,000.
The rally comes after weaker-than-expected NFP data, which has increased expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September.
J.P. Morgan now forecasts a 25 bps rate cut, citing signs of a slowing labor market and uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump's latest Fed nomination.
You may find more details in the chart!
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Nikkei 225 Index Rises Towards the 42,000 LevelNikkei 225 Index Rises Towards the 42,000 Level
As the chart indicates, the Nikkei 225 stock index has today risen to the 42,000 mark, which is just below its all-time high.
Among the bullish drivers:
→ Corporate news. Strong quarterly results were reported by Sony Group and SoftBank.
→ Trade agreement developments. Positive news flow surrounds a potential tariff agreement between the United States and Japan, which could be finalised in the near term. According to Reuters, the Japanese government stated on Thursday that the US has pledged to adjust overlapping tariffs on Japanese goods to avoid double taxation.
Technical Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Chart
Previously, we highlighted the ascending channel that has shaped price action throughout 2025. This pattern remains valid, with the price now entering the upper half of the channel. The channel’s median line might act as a support level going forward.
The recent price behaviour attracts attention: a long bullish candle has formed on the chart – immediately following a breakout above the 41,280 resistance level (as indicated by the arrow). This signals a clear imbalance in favour of buyers.
From a bearish perspective:
→ The psychological resistance at 42,000 may hold – in late July, the price failed to stay above this level.
→ The RSI indicator has entered overbought territory.
→ Failure by the bulls to sustain a break above 42,000 could validate a potential Double Top bearish pattern.
From a bullish perspective:
→ The price might advance towards the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
→ The bullish candle displays characteristics of an FVG (Fair Value Gap) bullish pattern, which might serve as a future support level.
→ Further support could be provided by the orange trendline, as well as the former resistance at 41,280.
A bullish breakout attempt above 42,000 cannot be ruled out. However, will market optimism persist if the price approaches the upper limit of the channel?
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DowJones key trading levelsKey Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 44700
Resistance Level 2: 44924
Resistance Level 3: 45130
Support Level 1: 43760
Support Level 2: 43477
Support Level 3: 43288
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Have we entered a brand new normal or is a crash coming?The market's bullish narrative rests first and foremost on the control of volatility. I won't go too much deeper into that right now, but I have been discussing with AI the current period of volatility expression and would like to highlight the following points about the current period:
4d VIX RSI has not had a 5 point increase since April 1 of this year. That's 129 days and counting.
From Claude AI (Anthropic):
The ongoing 4 day VIX RSI fall period (started April 1, 2025, now at 128+ days) is completely unprecedented since September 2003 (when VIX formula was modernized).
That's already:
More than double the longest ever previous period of in October 28, 2020 to Jan 27, 2021 (63 days)
Nearly 10x longer than the average period (13.14 days)
Over 12 standard deviations beyond the mean
The only period ever to exceed 70 days since September 2003
Key Insight:
Since September 2003, 67.3% of all fall periods recovered within 2 weeks, and 84.2% recovered within 3 weeks. The current 128+ day period represents an extreme statistical outlier in modern VIX behavior.
Additionally, if we look at the S and P week chart, we see that the gap from May 9 to May 12 is the largest ever unfilled weekly gap in the entire history of the S and P.
We are currently in a whole new normal of "bullishness", akin to the time period just before the great crash and great depression (which was the most bullish the stock market has ever been).
Dow Jones Index (US30 / Dow Jones) Analysis:The Dow Jones index is currently moving sideways and is trading near the $44,000 level.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If selling pressure leads to a break below the $43,800 area, the index may drop to test the $43,300 level, which is considered a critical support in the short term.
🔺 Bullish Scenario:
The price may test PDL (Previous Day Low) at $43,800 as a support zone and bounce upward. If the index breaks and holds above $44,100, this could lead to a continuation toward $44,520, and then to $45,000, a key resistance zone.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is not financial advice. It is recommended to monitor the markets and carefully analyze the data before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ Index (US100 / NASDAQ) Analysis:The NASDAQ index has shown strong bullish momentum recently and is currently trading near a key resistance level at $23,500.
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
If the price fails to break above $23,500 and selling pressure emerges, we could see a downward correction toward $23,310. A break below this level could extend the decline toward $23,000.
🔺 Bullish Scenario:
If the price successfully breaks and holds above $23,500, it could support further upside toward $23,600 as the first target. With continued bullish momentum, the price might reach $23,750.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is not financial advice. It is recommended to monitor the markets and carefully analyze the data before making any investment decisions.
US100 - Bullish trajectory to fill the inbalance zones!Over the past week, the US Tech 100 (US100) experienced a sharp decline, dropping into a significant support zone. During this bearish move, several fair value gaps (FVGs) formed on both the 4-hour and 1-hour timeframes, which remain unfilled. Currently, price action is retracing upward, aiming to fill these imbalances. The structure of the market suggests that both bullish and bearish scenarios are in play, depending on how price reacts to key levels marked by these FVGs and Fibonacci retracement zones.
Bearish Resistance
The first major area of resistance is located around the $23,160 level, which has just been tapped. This zone presents a strong potential turning point due to the confluence of a 1-hour and a 4-hour fair value gap, which perfectly align with the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement level, also known as the golden pocket. This cluster of technical signals increases the probability that this level will act as a strong supply zone, potentially initiating a rejection back toward the lower support area.
Bullish Support
On the downside, a key level to watch is around $22,900. This zone marks a 4-hour FVG that was formed during the recent upward move. Importantly, this area also coincides with the golden pocket from that very same leg up, offering a compelling confluence for bullish support. If price revisits this level, it may act as a strong demand zone, providing a springboard for the next leg higher, particularly if buyers step in aggressively to defend it.
Bullish Trajectory
If support at $22,900 holds, the bullish trajectory suggests a possible continuation toward the $23,400 region. This upper target contains a large overlapping 1-hour and 4-hour FVG that remains unfilled. Historically, price tends to revisit and fill such imbalances before choosing a definitive direction. A bounce from the lower support zone and a successful break of the $23,160 resistance could pave the way for a clean move toward this higher target, completing the FVG fill sequence.
Final Thoughts
The US100 is currently navigating a key technical crossroads. With multiple unfilled fair value gaps and well-aligned Fibonacci levels on both the upside and downside, the next few sessions will be critical in determining short-term direction. If the $23,160 resistance continues to hold, a pullback to $22,900 could offer a high-probability long setup, while a clean break above this resistance opens the door to filling the higher FVGs.
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Dow Jones Slides on Tariff News – What’s Next?US30 – Market Overview
US30 dropped nearly 600 points yesterday ahead of the announcement of new tariffs, adding pressure to the broader market.
Technical Outlook
Bearish Scenario:
While price remains below 44170, bearish momentum is favored, targeting 43960.
A confirmed break below 43960 would likely extend the decline toward 43630.
Bullish Scenario:
A 1H close above 44170 would shift the bias to bullish, targeting 44360 and possibly 44470.
Support: 43960 – 43630
Resistance: 44360 – 44470
DXY Is Still Bearish; Final Leg Of The Wedge Pattern?DXY Is Still Bearish, but it can be trading in final leg of ending diagonal a.k.a. wedge pattern from technical and Elliott wave perspective.
US Dollar Index – DXY made only a three-wave rise from the lows, which indicates for a correction within downtrend. So recovery can basically still be a fourth wave rally, just a bit deeper one that can still belong to an ending diagonal a.k.a. wedge pattern. Final wave “v” of 5 can be still missing, so be aware of a continuation lower within a new three-wave abc decline, especially if breaks below the lower side of the corrective channel near 97.70 level.
DAX: Next Move Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DAX together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 24,194.78 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
JPN225 H4 | Bearish reversalJapan 225 Index (JPN225) is reacting off the sell entry which acts as a swing high resistance and could reverse from this level oculd indicating a double top pattern which might lead to a potential price drop to the take profit.
Sell entry is at 42,043.92, which is a swing high resistance.
Stop loss is at 42,794.15, which aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and the 100% Fibonacci projection.
Take profit is at 41,269.97, which is a pullback support.
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US100: Near All Time Highs, Weak FoundationThe Nasdaq 100 (US100) is hovering near all-time highs (~23,500), but signs of exhaustion are mounting. Momentum is fading, RSI is overstretched, and volume has been declining - all classic symptoms of a tired rally.
From a technical perspective, the index is pressing against upper trendline resistance after an aggressive multi-week run. Price action shows weakening follow-through on each new high, hinting at buyer fatigue. Best example was the huge sell-out last week.
Fundamentally, the rally is losing its foundation:
- Earnings surprises from Big Tech (Apple, Shopify) are already priced in.
- AI hype is cooling off, and valuation multiples remain extreme.
- Macro data (ISM Services, jobs) suggest economic softness.
- Fed rate cut hopes are baked in — any disappointment could trigger a sharp repricing.
Conclusion for me:
The Nasdaq looks ripe for a pullback.
We may possibly see a short spike above my drawn "upper resistance line" but I'm pretty convinced we won't see new ATH, - in my opinion it would be just a stop hunt.
If 23,000 then breaks, watch for acceleration toward 22,500 and beyond. The air is thin up here.
T1: 23250
T2: 23100
And if we get the break - I see T3 - 22250
One unpredictable variable, though? The world’s leaders.
Their "creative" decision-making has the power to nuke any technical setup.
Markets may follow charts and earnings - until a politician wakes up and chooses chaos.
No trading advice, just my ideas. :)
DOW JONES Channel Up on its strongest Support.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up since the April 25 Low and right now it is consolidating straight after a direct contact and bounce on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Given that this also took place at the bottom of the Channel Up, it is a technical Higher Low formation, thus the strongest Support level possible.
With the 1D RSI also rebounding around the same level as the previous Higher Low, we expect the next technical Bullish Leg of the Channel Up to begin. The previous two rose by at least +7.00%, so the minimum Target we are looking for on the short-term is 46350.
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SPX500 at Key Pivot – Bearish Below 6365, Bullish AboveSPX500 – Market Overview
U.S. stock index futures rose on Friday after President Donald Trump’s temporary pick for a Federal Reserve governor boosted expectations for a more dovish central bank board.
Technical Outlook
Stability below 6365, we expect a move down toward 6341.
A 1H close below 6321 would likely extend the bearish trend toward 6301.
A 1H close above 6365 could trigger a push toward 6389.
A confirmed break above 6389 would shift the bias to bullish, targeting 6425 and 6453.
Pivot Line: 6365
Resistance: 6389 – 6425 – 6453
Support: 6341 – 6321 – 6301
US2000 Bearish Alert: Institutional Shorts Spike 300%, TechnicalInstitutional Sentiment Shift
Net short interest exploded from –30K in early July to –90K by early August—a 300% jump in bearish conviction.
Daily Chart:
On August 1, US2000 closed below key support, carving a lower low—the first technical indication of a bearish reversal.
Weekly Chart:
A clear bearish engulfing candlestick reinforces the likelihood of further downside.
Macro & Market Backdrop:
• The Fed remains hawkish, quashing near-term rate cut expectations.
Reuters
• Small-caps continue to underperform—Russell trades rich but offers less structural strength compared to large-caps.
MarketWatch
• With stagflation risks rising, small/mid-cap companies could face underperformance and tighter financing conditions.
MarketWatch
Bottom Line:
With institutional short positioning intensifying, market structure turning bearish, and macroeconomic challenges mounting, the US2000 is poised for further pressure. Traders—watch for follow-through declines.