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S&P 500 - Why everyone is probably wrong.Popular YouTube channels, financial media, everyone is talking about the great big crash of 2023 to come. Everyone is probably wrong. Why? The chart stupid. The recent breakout of resistance is seen by many as a bull trap. Maybe. I see a backtest of past resistance and price action landing on the golden ratio. There’s something else, however. The Life cross. A life cross is defined as: 1) The 50-day SMA crossing up the 200-day SMA AND 2) Price action above the 200-day SMA. But WW this cross is a fake out! There’s no evidence to support that. Have studied the last 60 years of life crosses on the index. Do you know how many printed a false signal? 0. Nadda. Not one. Ww The last 20 years of life crosses.. July 8th, 2020 April 1st 2019 April 26th, 2016 February 1st, 2012 October 22nd, 2010 June 20th, 2009 September 12th 2006 November 10th, 2004 May 16th, 2003
SP:SPXLong
by without_worries
64
SPY/SPX: Top's probably not in. Hey everyone, Excited to do this post. This is a new approach to looking at things that I found super insightful and excited to share my findings with the community! As the title suggests, the top is likely not in. How can we know this? Well, besides the very obvious bullish price action and the fact that buyers won’t let anything drop 1$ without aggressively buying, there are other, more objective ways to measure tops and such. One approach that many would use would be using the ATR range. However, ATR ranges are a little flawed, especially when looking at larger picture stuff (like annual levels). This is because ATR has limitations, such as: a) It is not inflation adjusted, b) It requires a moving average of at least 14 periods, which, in some cases, are beyond the stock’s life time, c) Is a trailing average that does not correct for bearish years and bullish years. Thus, the results are skewed if bearish years fell within the ATR trailing range. You can correct for this by doing what I do, which is creating models that look at the entire life span of a stock and correct for bullish and bearish years. However, this also has some limitations, some of the same as ATR, such as: a) Over-correcting for Bullish and Bearish years, b) Insufficient history on most stocks to have a very rigorous model, c) Difficulty accounting for fundamental and other economic catalysts. Models tend to be unbiased and so omit periods where economic circumstances propped stocks up or down. So how can we account for this, simplify it and come up with useable data? Well, the easiest way to do it, is to do a cross between an ATR and a model, using scaled data (to control for inflation) and looking at ATR of the scaled data and comparing current moves to averages as well as other times where there were similar economic and fundamental circumstances. To do this, we can use stats software such as R, SPSS, SAS, Excel or MATLAB, pull the data, standardize it and get our results. Let us do this for SPX, as it has more history. Here we have SPX’s annual returns. Converting the Close to Open difference to a percent return is a simple way of standardizing data. Now, on its own, this doesn’t tell us much, because returns are dynamic and ever changing, influenced by a combination of fundamental, economic and investor sentiment catalysts. However, we can begin to make sense of things if we start applying some concepts of ATR, most notably if we take the average gains the SPX does in a year. Doing this, we get 6% average annual return since the 1800s. However, if we isolate for ONLY bullish years, or years where SPX’s gains were >0, our average becomes 16%. Currently, SPX is at a 14% gain on the year. We can hone in a bit more, by isolation SPX’s Max gain. Doing this, we see that SPX’s biggest gain in 1 year happened in 1933, when it gained 46%. How about normal, bull market years? To figure this out, the easiest way is to rank the data from highest to lowest or lowest to highest. Then, we can take the mean, median and mode of the ranked data. We already have the mean, which is 16%, but with ranked data we can get the median and mode. First, the mode. Remember, mode is the value that occurs the most frequently. For SPX, the mode is interestingly enough 14%. Which means, of all of SPX’s bullish years, more times than not they ended at a 14% gain. Now for the median. Remember, the median is the middle value of ranked data. And surprise! Its also 14%! Its difficult to interpret what this could mean. It does tell us that we don’t have a perfect, normal distribution, because, despite the median and mode being the same, the mean is not the same (remember its 16%). But, it is close! So what does this tell us? Before we make inferences about this data, I think its important that we look at a few other things first. Most notably, the standardized version of the high to low value. The gains that we have looked at only represent the open to close. However, very rarely if ever has SPX ever closed on a high or low. So we would anticipate, looking at the actual range from high to low, we would get some different values. So let’s take a look at this on SPX’s bullish years: Looking at this, the average high to low is 25%. Currently, SPX is sitting at 16%. Exciting right? This is very far from where we are now! The MAX High to Low percent was 121% and the min was 4%. The max happened in 1933, the same year that the SPX gained a whopping 46%. For interest sake, let’s rank this data from low to high and calculate the median and mode. Doing this gives us the following: The mode is 15% and the median is 24%. So how can we use this data to make predictions about SPX? Well, we can actually calculate the targets based on the average of these values. So let’s get into it. Assuming that SPX is going to close at the average, between 14% and 16%, that would convert to a price target of 5409.53 - 5504.43. So, provided this is a bullish year (which it looks like it will be), we can expect our close to fall somewhere between 5400 and 5500, which is the average closing range of bullish years. However, SPX is still trailing below the expected high to low range, with an average range of 25% which is also the median (roughly). So with SPX’s YTD low of 4682.11, that would convert to a high of 5852.64. I don’t want to make this post too long, but I have replicated this with SPY as well and here is the data in a nutshell: SPY’s average gain on bullish years is 18%. SPY’s average high to low range on bullish years is 29%. SPY’s current gain on the year is 15%, and SPY’s current high to low range on the year is 16%. This gives the following price targets on SPY: Expected close (assuming we close at the annual average): 557.15 Expected High (assuming we meet the average high to low range): 601.67. One final note about SPY, interestingly, SPY’s largest gain was in 1995 at the start of the tech bubble where it gained a whopping 35%! Imagine SPY closing this year around 637.42?! Unthinkable! But .. possible? This is not trading advice, just trying to put things into perspective for people. I see a lot of short biased ideas continually popping up. For us to meet the average high to open range by selling, would require a HUGE tank from this position. I find the most likely and realistic is a continuation up from here to meet the average move. Safe trades everyone!
SP:SPXLong
by Steversteves
3
DXY topped on the 1-year Channel Down. Strong downside potentialThe U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 03 2023 High (13 months) and yesterday got the first red 1D candle after almost touching the pattern's top (Lower Highs trend-line) the day before. As the 1D RSI has dropped significantly after being overbought 2 weeks ago, this is a very similar top formation to the Highs of April 16 2024 and October 03 2023. As a result this is the earliest possible sell entry we can take to target long-term the new Lower Low of the Channel Down. The previous two Bearish Legs priced their Lows after roughly a -6.00% to -6.25% decline, just above the 1.1 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our Target is 99.800. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYShort
by TradingShot
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to resistance area 6117 (Wave “3”).Dear Colleagues, I believe that price will still make new highs. I expect that the wave “5” of the middle order is not yet complete. Perhaps the price will test the 50% Fibonacci level of 5847 and then start an upward movement to the resistance area of 6117 (Wave “3”). This correction may not happen, then it would mean that the price continued the wave “3”. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
5
US30 / TRADING INSIDE ASCENDING CHANNEL / 4HUS30 / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Current Price Trends: Following Trump’s win, the US30 index rose by 4.90% , The index is now testing historical peak levels around 44,045, with a potential to reach 44,532 if the upward trend holds. Technical Levels and Price Action: The analysis suggests that if prices stay below a certain “ascending channel line,” it could indicate weakness, possibly leading to a decline , The first potential downside target is a “Fair Value Gap” (FVG) between 43,381 and 42,984 , If prices break this zone, further declines could target another FVG range between 42,716 and 42,335. Trend Confirmation: If the price remains below the second FVG zone, it might confirm a downtrend , Conversely, if it stays above these levels, it suggests potential for a continued increase.
ULong
by ArinaKarayi
Fed Cuts Rate by 0.25%; Stocks Reach HighsFed Cuts Rate by 0.25%; Stocks Reach Highs Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced a unanimous decision to lower the interest rate from 4.75% to 4.50%, marking the second consecutive cut—a move in line with analyst expectations and forecasts. “This move will support further progress in controlling inflation as we aim for a more neutral stance over time,” said Fed Chair Jerome Powell. According to Bloomberg, this decision aligns with the Fed’s efforts to support robust U.S. economic growth, creating positive sentiment for stock indices as newly re-elected President Donald Trump is expected to introduce economic stimulus measures. However, could tensions arise between the new administration and the Fed? Trump has a record of publicly criticizing Powell and even considered dismissing him during his first term. At a press conference yesterday, Powell was asked if he would step down if requested by Trump, to which he replied decisively, “No.” He added that the removal or demotion of Fed board members, including himself, is “not legally permissible.” Powell emphasized that the U.S. election results would have "no effect" on the Fed’s decisions in the near term. For now, optimism prevails on U.S. stock markets. Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) shows that: → The price has reached a historic high, surpassing the round figure of 21,000 points and the previous peak set in July around 20,800. → It has moved above the upper boundary of the ascending channel (shown in blue), within which it had fluctuated following the early August sell-off. → The RSI indicator signals significant market overbought conditions. Given these factors, the market could be vulnerable to a correction after this recent rally. If a pullback occurs, it may indicate that market sentiment has already priced in the impact of the election outcome and the Fed rate cut. Additionally, the upper black line shown on the chart may act as resistance, potentially cooling the current bullish momentum. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
N
by FXOpen
2
S&P 500 reversal target - 6151Looking at a potential reversal target for the S&P 500 as we move beyond the election year into 2025. When scanning backwards on the previous high from late 2021, we can see price action clearly retested the speed fib on multiple weeks before a final rejection that induced the mini bear market which ended Oct of '22. Following that same speed fib forward into 2024, we can clearly see price is NOW, once again, retesting this magnetic fib zone. To figure out where this is all going, let's measure from the Jan '22 high into the Oct '22 low. Here, we get a 1.854 and 2.0 fib extension which intersects with the speed fib in question. Making some assumptions that price will AGAIN, range and retest multiple times before resolving, we can overlay "bars pattern" (from Jan '21 HIGH - Oct '22 LOW) and see when and how this could play out. Now, we wait and see how this movie ends! Note: Not trading or investment advice. ENTERTAINMENT ONLY!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by tantamount
Nasdaq - This Is Just The Beginning!Nasdaq ( TVC:NDQ ) is preparing a major rally going into 2025: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 As mentioned in all of my previous analysis, the Nasdaq is rallying but despite the recent strong move, there is still a lot more room towards the upside. With the channel breakout happening over the past couple of months, it is quite likely that we will see a rally of +50% during 2025. Levels to watch: $26.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:NDQLong
by basictradingtv
1
KEEP LONG ENTRIES FOR NEXT TOP AT 46500We will move our pivot point up from previous pivot, target price is 46500, timezone is marked between 2nd to 23rd December 2024 to align with the top. Price and time are growing out in well structured Phi models and we expect that if 46500 price is reached within the marked timezone then a strong market correction will follow. Although our actual projection for the major market top still remains at 27th October 2025 we expect that markets will begin to stall if price reaches the 46500 price level earlier. Trade safe
TVC:DJILong
by MENA-MARKETS-PRO