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S&P 500 Rally Exhausted? Watch This Level for the Next Drop!The S&P 500 Index( SP:SPX ) has finally touched the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) as I expected in my previous post . The S&P 500 Index is moving near the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) , the Resistance line, and Yearly Pivot Point . Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks . In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the S&P 500 Index is completing the Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) , and if the uptrend line breaks , we can confirm the end of the Zigzag correction . When the S&P 500 Index started to rise on April 22 , Bitcoin also started to rise at the same time , so a decline in the S&P 500 Index can cause Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) to decline . I expect the S&P 500 Index to drop to at least $5,313 AFTER breaking the uptrend line . Note: If the S&P 500 Index touches $5,712, we can expect more pumps. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),2-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by pejman_zwin
8
NIFTY50.....Wave iii complete! Corrective move ahead?Hello Traders, the NIFTY50 reached on Friday the level of 24365 and fell to a close @ 24039.35! This level (@24365) can be a wave iii! The next move would be a wave iv, that can retrace to 23585. The next opportunity could be a wave c that is done or close to be done. Chart analysis: If the wave iii would be done, the next move should be to the cited target range @ 23585 or some points below. From here, a wave v should start with targets around 24620. Higher price are still possible, while not expected! Several scenarios are thinkable, but it's too early to announce them. Another possible idea could be a "double waves 1-2". In this case, N50 should run to new ATH's in the coming weeks ahead! A sell-signal would occur if price touch below the level of 23847.85 points. If price extend the gains above 24365.45, the sell-signal would be eliminated! Ok, the following 2-3 day's will be interesting to watch, and a new update is at hand! Have a great weekend..... Ruebennase Please ask or comment as appropriate. Trade on this analysis at your own risk. I'm very happy about a like!
NSE:NIFTY
by ruebennase
4
S&P 500 Rockets Past Resistance-Is 5,728 Next?The S&P 500 (SPX) formed a double bottom pattern on Monday, April 7, and Wednesday, April 9, on the 4-hour timeframe, signaling a potential reversal from recent lows. Later on April 9, the index broke above resistance, confirming short-term bullish momentum. On April 24, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period moving average, reinforcing the strength of the emerging uptrend. By April 25, a 4-hour candle closed above the 200-period moving average, providing further confirmation of a strong bullish trend. That same day, the SPX broke through the significant resistance level at 5,501, with a candle closing above this level, which supports the view of continued upward movement. Based on my technical setup, the next potential target is projected at 5,728.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Lydonlee
1
DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W18 Y25DXY USD INDEX FORECAST Q2 W18 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. ✅ U.S. dollar index is a measure of the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies. ✅The currencies are the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona. 💡Here are some trade confluences📝 ✅ Break an d close below July 2023 key 100.00 levels. ✅ Foresee a pull back to, weekly imbalance, daily order block, daily 50ema, weekly order block and or weekly 50 ema. ✅ Awaiting to identify a significant break of structure bullish to use the DXY as confluence for our trading week 18 of Q2 toward key points of interest mentioned above. ✅ Forecasting continued bearish pressure long term. ✅Initially bullish outlook however upon price turn around. DXY to break 100.000 level again. 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. Pairs to look out for - EURUSD USDCHF USDJPY USDCAD GBPUSD 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
TVC:DXY
by JCFRGNT
2
JPY ( YEN )BASKET FORECAST Q2 W18 Y25JPY ( YEN )BASKET FORECAST Q2 W18 Y25 Professional Risk Managers👋 Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈 Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure. Let’s see what price action is telling us today! ✅The JPY Basket trackS the overall strength of the JPY against a weighted average of other currencies.  ✅It can be used as an indicator of YEN strength which can be a tool for analysing and potentially hedging for or against the Index. ✅ Pairs to watch - GBPJPY, USDJPY EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY 🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies. 📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities. 💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail. 🏆It has always been that simple. ❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top. 🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
FX:JPYBASKET
by JCFRGNT
2
VIX, the paroxysm of fear is behind us The international equity market suffered a bearish shock between the beginning of February and the beginning of April, against the backdrop of the trade war. The trade war known as “reciprocal tariffs” initiated by the Trump Administration caused the MSCI World stock index to fall by over 20%. Now, since the States have entered into a sequence of trade diplomacy, the equity market has rebounded and volatility has dropped one floor. Can we say that the paroxysm of fear is behind us, based on the prism of technical analysis of the financial markets? To answer this question, we'd like to take a look at two interesting charts. 1) Firstly, the implied volatility chart of the stocks that make up the SP 500 index, the VIX. The nickname of this index is “the fear index”. Its calculation is based on the price of call and put options on the stocks making up the SP500 index. Remember that the S&P 500 is considered the benchmark index of Western finance 2) The second chart of interest is a quantitative analysis of financial markets. Quantitative analysis of financial markets is one of the disciplines of technical analysis of financial markets, and here it concerns the percentage of SP 500 stocks above the 50-day moving average. It is precisely the application of technical analysis to these two charts that allows us to argue in favour of a selling paroxysm reached during the first fortnight of April. For the VIX, the fear index has been rejecting downwards since the 60 level, with a chartist “black cloud cover” structure (Japanese candlestick terminology) and a bearish resolution of the RSI technical indicator from its weekly overbought zone. This signal historically signified that the paroxysm of fear was over. For the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above the 50-day moving average, the quantitative bullish signal is very convincing. Historically, every time this percentage has fallen below the 20% threshold in an abrupt fashion, only to rise back up again, it has signalled the final phase of the bear market, and that's what's happening again this April 2025, as you can see on the chart below. CONCLUSION: Through the prism of technical analysis of the financial markets, a number of clues point to a paroxysm of fear reached in the first half of April. Of course, only the fundamentals and the outcome of trade diplomacy can confirm that the low point is well and truly behind us. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. 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TVC:VIXShort
by Swissquote
6
S&P 500 - Key Levels and Measurements (Bonds vs Yields vs Homes)Happy Friday!!! Starting with a BLANK chart, here are my key levels and measurements for the S&P 500 Earnings season is stable, more MAG 7 next week with AAPL, AMZN, META, MSFT Trump and Company are softening the trade war narrative quickly and the market is taking notice. Prices recovered nicely this week 5500 SPX is a key level for the bulls to push above - if done look for open space melt-up into 5700-5800 resistance If SPX rejects 5500 early next week we will be dealing with some more noise and intermediate levels 4830 lows will be absolutely critical to maintaining a long-term bull market. You will see why with this analysis. Last piece is talking about bonds vs yields and the current housing market in the US My belief is that yields stay sticky and home prices MUST drop to see any improvements in affordability Thanks for watching - have a great weekend!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
1
Major shift on the S&P 500: Is the bull market really over ? After three years of almost uninterrupted gains, the U.S. market has finally shifted gears. In early March, following a sharp escalation in trade tensions between China and the United States, the S&P 500 officially entered a bear market. The tariff shock acted as a catalyst: buyers failed to defend critical levels, and the bullish momentum broke down. Today, my scenario is clear: I believe we are entering a wide range similar to what we saw in 2022, between 4700 and 5500 points. In this controlled volatility environment, both investing and trading strategies must adapt. 💰 For long-term investing: I'm staying fully in cash. I prefer to wait until my personal indicator flashes green again before re-entering the market. Patience is my best weapon in uncertain environments. 🎯 For swing trading: The approach here is more active. Each touch of the lower boundary (around 4700) will be considered a tactical buy, aiming to resell around 5500 points at the top of the range. No rushing, no chasing moves: I only act at the extremes.
SP:SPXShort
by LAZY_SMART_TRADING
Another move down for SPX500USD?Hi traders, SPX500USD made a bigger orange X-wave last week into the Daily FVG. So next week we could see the start of the last impulse wave down to finish the bigger (red) WXY correction. But it first has to close below the Daily FVG. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bearish, a small impulse wave down and a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
Is This a Massive AB=CD? I first joined this site under the "HoleyProfit" username in 2021 to give my warnings of potential bear markets. Obvious bear setups forming in the meme mania and I also though this would extend into the indices given a bit of time. I was a bit early on the indices but over the following months all the tops were made and the drops came to pass. Late 2022 I began to pivot back to bull when there was signs of bear trend failure and by early 2023 I was fully in the bull camp. At the time I started to talk about a blow off top move. One which was exactly similar in size and style as the 2021 rally but the angle of the rally for a bit sharper. This would have predicted a parabolic run to somewhere around 6000 - which has since come to pass. Read the original post below. If my thesis that we were heading into a giant D leg was correct, then that would mean we have a top made. And we'd enter into super ugly market conditions over the coming months.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
2
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months. Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move: Monthly Close Above 100.160: A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities. Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y): This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets. COT Report Insights: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves. Seasonal Patterns: Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape. Targets: Initial Target: 106.120 Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
TVC:DXYLong
by Wiiso
Built Up Swing Short Bet Over the Last Day.Got another good chunk of the rally taking our net SPX long earnings to over 20% for the year on low risk (For context, our max DD is about 1/4 of what SPX is down this year). I still would prefer to see 5800 for me to take a real big swing at the short (because I know at 5800 even if I am wrong I'll generally get some reaction to size down a bit in risk) but we may undershoot that. I've build up my position around the 5400 sort of area. Small tolerance for stop zones. If I am wrong, I think 5800 would hit really quickly. Update to below idea.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
4
DXYThe U.S. Dollar Index (USDX or DXY) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a weighted basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (57.6% weight), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). Established in 1973 after the Bretton Woods system ended, the index serves as a benchmark for the dollar’s strength in global markets. How the Dollar Index Drives Trade Directional Bias in Forex Indicator of Dollar Strength or Weakness When the USDX rises, it means the U.S. dollar is strengthening against this basket of currencies; when it falls, the dollar is weakening. Since the dollar is the world’s primary reserve and trading currency, its strength heavily influences forex market trends. Correlation with Major Currency Pairs Inverse correlation with EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Because the euro and pound have large weights in the index, a rising USDX typically causes EUR/USD and GBP/USD to fall, and vice versa. Positive correlation with USD/JPY and USD/CAD: For pairs where USD is the base currency, these pairs tend to move in the same direction as the USDX. Commodity-related pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD often move inversely to the USDX due to their sensitivity to global risk sentiment and commodity prices. Guiding Trade Decisions and Confirming Signals Traders use the USDX to confirm directional bias in forex trades. For example, if the USDX is rising, it supports taking long positions in USD-based pairs or short positions in pairs where USD is the quote currency. Conversely, a falling USDX suggests caution on USD longs and potential opportunities in other currencies. Macro and Sentiment Indicator The USDX reflects broader economic conditions, U.S. monetary policy, and global risk sentiment. For instance, Fed rate hikes often strengthen the USDX, causing shifts in forex markets. It also acts as a proxy for the health of the U.S. economy and influences global trade flows. Summary Aspect Effect on Forex Trading Rising USDX Dollar strengthens; EUR/USD & GBP/USD tend to fall; USD/JPY & USD/CAD tend to rise Falling USDX Dollar weakens; EUR/USD & GBP/USD tend to rise; USD/JPY & USD/CAD tend to fall USD as Base Currency (USD/xxx) Moves in line with USDX USD as Quote Currency (xxx/USD) Moves inversely to USDX Use in Trading Confirms trade signals, guides directional bias, gauges macroeconomic trends In essence, the U.S. Dollar Index is a vital tool in forex trading, providing a consolidated view of the dollar’s strength and helping traders anticipate market movements and set trade directional bias accordingly.
TVC:DXYLong
by Shavyfxhub
Following the Wave StructureAnalysis: The NASDAQ100 appears to be following a classic 5-wave structure. Currently, we are finishing Wave 3, with an expected corrective move toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement zone near 19,018.7. From there, the chart suggests a continuation toward the 19,879 area (close to the daily 200 EMA) and, finally, toward the 20,866 target, completing the cycle. Key zones: Support: 19,018.7 (50% Fibo and strong structural level) Resistance: 19,879.1 and 20,866.2 Additional levels: Daily 200 EMA and previous structural gaps The path won't be in a straight line — expect consolidation and pullbacks along the way. However, the bullish projection remains intact as long as the 19,018.7 support holds. Let's keep riding the wave! 🌊
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by JAG_Trader