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NASDAQ: Dancing on the Edge of a Techno-Financial TightropeMarket Overview The NASDAQ-100 (NDX) has recently corrected by approximately 5.5% from its all-time high of 22,133 on December 16, 2024. This comes after a historic rally driven by resilient megacap technology stocks, robust earnings, and the continued dominance of AI-led innovation. Despite the correction, the index remains up 18% year-to-date, outpacing broader indices like the S&P 500, fueled by optimism around productivity-enhancing technologies. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds could temper this growth into 2025. Technical Analysis Trendlines Short-Term: The NDX remains in a rising trend channel since March 2023, with the lower boundary around 20,500 acting as critical support. A recent breach of its 21-day moving average suggests growing bearish momentum. Long-Term: The index's long-term trendline, extending from the pandemic lows in 2020, remains intact, underscoring investor confidence in the broader tech narrative. Key Levels Support Immediate support: 20,790 (50-day moving average). Strong support: 20,500 (trendline and Fibonacci retracement zone). Resistance Near-term resistance: 21,900 (upper boundary of rising wedge). Critical resistance: 22,133 (all-time high). Momentum Indicators RSI: Declining from overbought territory (currently at 64), signaling potential for further downside before resetting to neutral. MACD: A bearish crossover suggests weakening momentum in the near term. Macroeconomic Context Interest Rates The Federal Reserve has maintained its hawkish stance, with the terminal rate hovering around 5.75%. While inflation has moderated to 2.4%, core inflation remains sticky at 2.8%, keeping rate cuts off the table until mid-2025. Elevated borrowing costs could weigh on tech valuations, particularly for growth companies reliant on cheap capital. Economic Growth U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decelerate from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, reflecting weaker consumer spending and tighter financial conditions. This slowdown could dampen earnings growth across the NASDAQ-100 constituents. Corporate Earnings Analysts expect NDX earnings growth of 8% in 2025, down from the blistering 14% in 2024, as cost pressures and a plateauing of AI-related tailwinds take hold. Geopolitical Landscape China-U.S. Relations Increasing tensions over Taiwan and heightened scrutiny of U.S. tech exports to China remain a wildcard. Any escalation could disrupt semiconductor supply chains and impact heavyweights like Nvidia and AMD. Europe Persistent instability in Eastern Europe and ongoing energy challenges pose risks to multinational tech firms with significant operations or customers in the region. Middle East Geopolitical uncertainty stemming from conflicts in the Middle East has kept oil prices elevated (~$95/barrel). Higher energy costs could indirectly affect tech earnings by squeezing consumer and corporate budgets. 2025 Outlook Base Case The NASDAQ-100 ends 2025 up 8–12%, driven by resilient demand for cloud computing, generative AI, and green technology innovations. Support from stable core earnings growth and moderating inflation provides a favorable backdrop. Bear Case Prolonged high interest rates, coupled with weaker-than-expected global growth, lead to a flat or mildly negative year. Key risks include geopolitical flare-ups, regulatory actions on Big Tech, and waning investor enthusiasm for speculative assets. Bull Case A dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve in H2 2025, alongside breakthrough advancements in AI or biotechnology, propels the index to new highs (~24,000). Conclusion The NASDAQ-100 is entering 2025 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, balanced between robust technological trends and mounting macro/geopolitical risks. Investors should monitor key support at 20,500 and resistance at 21,900 as barometers of sentiment. While near-term volatility is likely, the index remains a cornerstone for long-term growth portfolios. For 2025, the focus is on being smart: diligent monitoring, disciplined allocations, and adapting to shifting conditions. "There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." – John Tuld – Margin Call (2011)
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by WHSelfInvest
Nifty Weekend Update...alert!!!!Hey guys, currently nifty this week fall more then 4%, due to holidays FII are selling highly. If you see the chart you can see nifty currently just above of 50WMA after huge selling pressure it still above the 50WMA, if this will break next week onwards we will enter a bear market for short term period, so in my opinion this is now a crucial moment so keep cash in hand for buying in the dip. Another scenario if nifty will bounce break from this level or first breaking 50wma then trap all bears and then bounce back above 50WMA that will also good for nifty to continue its trend to 30K.
NSE:NIFTY
by finlabventure
Three Year Parallel Channel of Nifty with Multiple indicators. We have tried to draw a Three Year Parallel Channel of Nifty with Multiple indicators. We will try to understand what is happening as per each indicator and try to get the jist of moves that may occur with a medium to long term perspective. Indicator 1) Parallel Channel: The parallel channel indicates that after hitting the channel top at 26277 the Nifty is receding and is on a search of it's bottom from where it can launch forward again. That is the case when every time Nifty has it a channel top as you can see in the chart. The Future Channel Top once Nifty picks up the next Bull run seems to be around 29497 as per the parallel channel. Mid channel support of the parallel channel is around 23500 zone which can support Nifty. If we get a weekly closing below 23500 this level will become a resistance. In such a scenario of weekly closing below 23500 Channel bottom seems to be near 21296. Indicator 2) Fibonacci Retracement: Fibonacci retracement suggests a bottom near 23263. If this level is broken there is a possibility of Nifty falling to the next fibonacci supports will be at 22506 and 21577. Once the Bull run begins the next resistance levels as per Fibonacci seem to be at 24725, 26777 (Previous high), 27162 and finally 28331. Indicator 3) Bollinger Band: Support with respect to lower width of Bollinger Band seems to be near 23340. Mid Bollinger band resistance seems to be near 24660 and Bollinger band upper width resistances seems to be near 25981. Indicator 4) RSI or the Relative Strength Index: RSI currently is at 44.41 and going downwards showing weakness. The RSI support can be found in the zone of 40, 38 or 36. Usually When RSI is below 30 the stock or index is considered oversold and when the stock or index RSI is above 70 it is considered overbought. RSI Below 20 is extremely oversold zone and RSI above 80 is considered extremely overbought. Indicator 5) MACD or Moving Average Convergence and Divergence: MACD is a combination of Moving averages lines which tend to indicate direction in which stock or index will move and histograms indicate strength or weakness of a rally. As per MACD Nifty right now is in extreme Bear grip and will take a little time to recover. When the Blue line will start moving upwards and when it might cross the red line and continue to move upwards it can be considered as Nifty will come back to Bull Zone. Colour of histograms at that time will also start going Dark Green or light Green. Indicator 6) 50 and 200 weeks EMA or the Mother and Father line: I have designed a theory called Mother, Father and Small Child Theory. As per this theory the movement of index or a stock in the chart is like a movement of a 3 year old child when it goes to a garden. The movement of 50 EMA is like movement of the mother and movement of the 200 EMA is like movement of a Father of that child. To know more about this theory or other indicators mentioned earlier you need to read my book THE HAPPY CANDLES WAY TO WEALTH CREATION. This book is available in Amazon in paperback or Kindle version. It is one of the Highest rated book in the category. Have a look at that book it will help you immensely in your wealth creation journey. Now as per this theory the Nifty right now is at 23587. 50 Weeks EMA is at 23403. 200 Weeks EMA is at 19335. as the Nifty is above these levels both these levels will work as a great support to Nifty and can help Nifty from falling further. Conclusion: Nifty is approaching multiple supports from where it has potential to turnaround. Mid channel support is around 23500, 50 Weeks EMA support or the Mother line is at 23403. 23340 is the Bollinger band lower band width support. Fibonacci support is at 23263. We can see a turnaround mostly from either of these three supports. If these supports are broken by chance (looks less likely but you can never say never) then the next supports will be at 22507, 21296 or worst case scenario as of now looks like 19335. On the upper side resistances seem to be at 24660 Fibonacci mid resistance, 24725 is the Fibonacci resistance, 25981 is Bollinger band upper width resistance and 26277 is the Fibonacci resistnace which also the previous high of Nifty. Once this zone is crossed in a long term we can reach the targets of 27162 Fibonacci resistance, 28331 Fibonacci golden ratio resistnace and 29497 which is the approximate nex channel top. (This is the Medium to Long term outlook of Nifty). This is how you can analyse any index or a stock using the 6 indicators mentioned in the writeup. I give top most priority to these 6 indicators in my analysis. Disclaimer: Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Short Position - NASDAQShort Position Entry: Consider initiating a short position if the Nasdaq-100 Index falls below 21,000. Stop Loss (SL): Set a stop loss at 21,555 to manage potential losses.' Market Sentiment: The combination of the Federal Reserve's cautious approach and rising inflation may contribute to a weakening market sentiment, potentially leading to a downward movement in the index. his recommendation is for educational purposes only. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Stock trading involves risks, including the potential loss of capital. Ensure to evaluate your risk tolerance and conduct thorough research.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by KSLBroking
two buy positions on the DXY (U.S. DOLLAR INDEX)Here’s a structured plan for managing two buy positions on the DXY: --- 1. Entry Plan First Buy Position: Entry: 107.000 Likely Reason: Anticipation of strong support at this level, possibly near a significant technical or psychological level. Second Buy Position: Entry: 107.830 Likely Reason: Market reversal or breakout confirmation at this higher level. TVC:DXY 2. Risk Management Stop-Loss Levels: For the 107.000 position: Below 106.800 (to avoid a deeper pullback). For the 107.830 position: Below 107.500 (to account for short-term fluctuations). Position Sizing: Use smaller lot sizes for the second position if risk increases near resistance zones. --- 3. Take-Profit Strategy Conservative Targets: For both positions, a short-term take-profit can be set at 108.200, which may align with minor resistance. Aggressive Targets: Extend profit-taking to 108.500 or 109.000, depending on momentum and fundamental triggers. --- 4. Monitoring Key Levels Support Zones: Strong support at 107.000: Look for price consolidation here if it drops further. Resistance Zones: 108.000–108.200: Watch for profit-taking or reversal at these levels. 109.000: A more aggressive upside target.
TVC:DXYLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Top Trading Ideas of 2025: AI, Bitcoin, Stock Picks and PoliticsIf you’re extremely online and watching the blog of every investment bank, financial institution and markets-focused media outlet, you’ve probably seen a few of those already — year-ahead previews are just too enticing to pass on. With this Idea, we’re aiming to lay out what our traders care about the most — the big trading and investment trends that will drive a huge chunk of the buying and selling. While only a forecast, this type of outlook could help you to better prepare your trades and set your gaze upon the assets and categories that will slosh around billions upon billions next year. So let’s do it. 🤖 AI on the Horizon A thematic priority and one of the top investment trends in 2025 will undoubtedly be Nvidia artificial intelligence. AI is touted as the game changer of the tech industry and all big tech players are racing to seize as big a market share as they can. To get a feel for what may be coming, let’s look at what happened this year. According to technology-focused analyst firm Omdia, Microsoft MSFT was the biggest buyer of Nvidia’s NVDA flagship AI chip Hopper. (One of these babies will run you about $30,000.) Estimates point that the tech giant bought 485,000 Hopper chips (~ $15 billion ). It’s understandable because Microsoft is OpenAI’s biggest investor with about $13 billion jammed into the ChatGPT parent. Next in line for the Hopper chip in 2024 is Meta META with 224,000 units. Other big spenders for the AI-enabling tech include Tesla TSLA , Amazon AMZN and Google GOOGL . Next year, that upside trend is expected to pick up the pace with Hopper’s successor Blackwell — a next-generation AI chip , which has seen insane demand , according to Nvidia’s main man Jensen Huang. With all that AI buzz, investors will be closely following Nvidia’s every step for signs of whether the chip juggernaut could carry on the miraculous growth. ₿ Bitcoin is the New Orange What’s the new year without some orange-colored cryptocurrency? Bitcoin BTCUSD is now a $2 trillion beast ready to tear down every permabear’s gloom-and-doom forecast. So what can you expect to see in 2025? With Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, the cryptocurrency industry is poised for deregulation (think, crypto companies finally getting bank accounts). The President-elect has set out to assemble a team of A-list venture capitalists , entrepreneurs and, frankly, billionaires. And with the Congress largely made up of crypto bros, digital-asset companies hope regulators will wave away a whole string of suits against them — Coinbase, Kraken and Binance have been carrying a target on their backs for years. Stripping down weighty rules will help companies expand services and establish bigger footprints, potentially powering Bitcoin’s valuation. Other than having banks take deposits or lend to crypto companies, something else can propel Bitcoin. The US government may soon have its very own Bitcoin strategic reserve . The vehicle will aim to collect a total of 1 million Bitcoin over a five-year time horizon. The goal: keep stacking and never sell. 🎯 The Game of Whack-a-Mole Here’s why stocks won’t be skyrocketing in 2025: the Federal Reserve just said it’s nearly done with lowering interest rates. After Fed boss Jay Powell announced another trim to borrowing costs Wednesday, he struck a cautious note saying that the US central bank is now projecting two rate cuts, down from a previous forecast of four. In other words, stock picking is back on the menu. It’s easy to feel smart — even a genius — when your trade is in profit together with the broader market. But true craftsmanship is best seen amid churning waters when markets are volatile, tough and choppy. No doubt there will be winners even if equities are moving sideways or looking down. But it’s hard to imagine that US stocks could pull off a third straight 20%+ annual gain (the S&P 500 SPX was up more than 24% in 2023 and is up 24% on the year so far). Also, the broad-based index is at a record high . So is the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average DJI and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite IXIC . Among the big factors that could contribute to a negative year for stocks are rate hikes, recession or stubborn inflation. All in all, stock pickers, this might just be your year! 🏛️ Power Plays and Market Sways President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda is pretty clear by now and he isn’t even officially sworn in. If it could be summed up in a sentence it would probably be “America, heck yeah.” Trump’s second four-year term is expected to usher in a new era of growth through an America-first approach, sweeping deregulation and tax cuts. All that mix of reflation policies threatens to flare up price pressures again. Add to that some hefty tariffs on US imports and you get a powerful concoction of “wait and see if this bursts in your face.” Inflation expectations have already crept up and the recent consumer price index readout for November does sound some alarm bells. If things are heating up, Trump’s moves may bring them to a boil — tariffs are inflationary and immigration control is inflationary. And so if the election win introduced animal spirits into the markets, the presidency starting next year will get a chance to make good on all the promises given by the President-elect (and expose some potential weaknesses). 📣 With that, we conclude the walk through what we think makes the most sense to grab headlines next year. What’s your take — do you think there are opportunities to be seized in 2025? Share your thoughts and let’s spin up a discussion!
SP:SPX
by TradingView
18
Price Tests Key Levels as Bullish and Bearish Momentum CompeteTechnical Analysis The price dropped as anticipated in the previous analysis. Today, the price is likely to attempt to reach 41,960. A break below this level would confirm further bearish movement toward 41,740. However, if the price stabilizes above 41,970, it could support a bullish move toward the pivot zone at 42,370. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 42130 Resistance Levels: 42370, 42590, 42770 Support Levels: 41970, 41740, 41560 Trend Outlook: Bullish Momentum: Expected if the price stabilizes above 41,970. Bearish Momentum: Likely with stability below 41,970. previous idea:
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
Mastering the trading on US 30 (Part 2)Hi and Merry Christmas to you and your families )) ** This idea is the continuation of the previous idea (Mastering the trading on US 30) ** It will go to the purple uptrend line which was not broken since 23.10.2023 as TP1 ** High chance will go to my Fib retracement level in orange colour for TP2 then to retrace to the purple line up again. ** The index had fallen from the rising channel in yellow lines and had lost already to do 3rd HL ** We are ,by not hitting the 3rd HL, in a long term bearish wave regardless any bullish retrace up except if the index will go to TP1 and retrace up from without closing the day candle on its right. ** If the day candle will close down to the purple line, I will set another idea for US 30 and will be expected further downside moves. My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help. I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
FX:US30Short
by moustafa_marei
3
NASDAQ Bearish Momentum Persists as Price Drops 2.7% in 24 HoursTechnical Analysis The price has dropped more than 2.7% in the last 24 hours. The bearish trend, as highlighted in the previous analysis, remains intact. The price is likely to stabilize within the bearish trend, targeting 20,670 and 20,550, as long as it trades below 20,990. However, a bullish correction toward 20,860 or 20,990 is possible, particularly if the price stabilizes above 20,860. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 20860 Resistance Levels: 20990, 21080, 21210 Support Levels: 20780, 20670, 20550 Trend Outlook: - Bearish Momentum with stability below 20990 - Bullish Momentum by stability above 20990 Previous idea:
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
SP500 / Bearish Momentum is under control...S&P 500 Technical Analysis The price dropped another 1.7% and still has bearish momentum. As long as it trades below 5863, it will touch 5803 and 5781. so the consolidation will be between 5863 and 5781 till breaking, it is possible to do a correction till 5863 and then will drop. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5835 Resistance Levels: 5863, 5894, 5932 Support Levels: 5803, 5781, 5734 Trend Outlook: Downward by stability below 5863 Bullish correction toward 5863 previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
Short Term Out-Look for Stock WeaknessThe number of stocks below their 50-day moving average are nearing the 3.618 % Fib-Extension, which does not mean it cannot reach even the 4.618 % level. Most likely to my experiance, stocks will recover short term after todays "witches" have finished their "rituals". I expect intraday to become ugly eventually at some point to draw the candle of a "hanging man". History tells us that it is safe to buy after December 24th after a failed X-Mas rally. Good luck and take responsibility for your trades!
INDEX:S5FI
by Woerle
nifty 50NSE:NIFTY WAIT and Watch! Could be Tricky!!!!! lets see, Fingers crossed. Note : 1. One should go long with a StopLoss, below the Trendline or the Previous Swing Low. 2. Risk :Reward ratio should be minimum 1:2. 3. Plan your trade as per the Money Mangement and Risk Appetite. Disclamier : You are responsible for your profits and loss. The idea shared here is purely for Educational purpose. Follow back, for more ideas and thier notifications on your email. Support and Like incase the idea works for you.
NSE:NIFTY
by CreativeCreature
The Nifty spot intraday trend forecast for December 23, 2024The Nifty spot intraday trend for December 23rd indicates a bearish outlook. With the previous support level breached, the next strong support is at 23,020. However, it is important to note that timing plays a crucial role in all market activities. Our bearish outlook is expected to continue until December 27th, 2024. Please be aware that the mentioned levels may vary due to potential gaps on either side. This content is intended solely for educational purposes, and I strongly advise against trading in derivatives.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Mastersinnifty
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 19 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None - FOMC on Wednesday night News - None Directional bias - BUY Note: Did not trade FOMC on Wednesday, because generally I don’t like to trade news. For me, it’s more of a gamble than a situation where I can stack the probabilities in my favour. Morning analysis: FOMC reaction was huge, with price plummeting through the floor. 4H and Daily fib levels were all smashed. The last remaining fib level in the morning was the W 0.618 fib level. A huge DT had formed on the D TF (marked in green lines). D neckline was broken down and price had travelled to the profit target zone (as marked by the green vertical line). Price had touched the W 0.618 fib level and moved back up, showing a strong reaction to this last line of defence for the bulls. In this case, because price had reached profit target, I was looking for a buy. If price had not yet reached profit target, I would have been cautious with a buy because I have noted how respectful Nasdaq can be of profit targets. It is normally the case that price would re-test the neckline of the market pattern just broken, once price has reached profit target, so I felt confident with a buy. As the morning progressed a falling wedge pattern started forming (marked with blue lines). These usually break upwards, but can break either direction. Price broke the pattern upwards and I entered at the lower hand icon. Confirmations: 1. Market pattern - Two market patterns where at play here. A falling wedge broken upwards + DB on the 1H TF with the neckline (drawn in orange) broken upwards. 2. S&R - Market patterns where forming at a weekly S&R area. 3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall market trend. DB was forming right at the uptrend line area on the bigger timeframes (marked with the diagonal red line). Temporary downtrend line of falling wedge broken upwards 4. Fib - Long wick candle spike down to W 0.618 fib level 5. Candlesticks - Long wick candle showing a strong reaction to the W 0.618 fib level. Mental stop was placed at the thick pink line, i.e. half of the height of the DB. Price moved up well. Now for setting TP's. Setting take profit in these situations is difficult. Usually, I would use the fib level that I entered on, to provide guidance as to TP1 and TP2 (fib extensions). But in this case, we are not in a trending market and aiming for the Weekly TP (because that is the fib level at play here) is too ambitious. The highlighted green areas are very strong sell areas of confluence. I set these two areas as potential take profit zones. Depending how strong bulls are, they may push all the way to the D neckline and push through, or they may just touch an EMA or sell fib level and price reverses downwards. I have left a lot of money on the table in these scenarios before, by just assuming bulls will break the D neckline back upwards. So was determined today to learn from my past mistakes. I ended up taking partial profit at +- 1000 pips, because I didnt like the strong reaction to the 30min EMA. With Nas, if price is VERY bullish or bearish, then price will react to the 30 EMA. So the fact that bears were so prominent at the 30 EMA, made me want to lock in some profits. Price continued to move up and had a strong reaction to the D EMA (where it was at that time in history). Price had not even reached the area of sell confluence marked in green, and we were seeing a strong bearish push. Decided to take profit again at the top hand icon (+- 1'700 pips) and leave a runner open. Runner got taken out at entry when price came tumbling down. I am happy with my take profit decisions. This was the first time that I capitalised correctly on the move I was looking for. I feel this proves the value of screen time and really trying to make sense of how price is reacting in various situations. You may feel no progress at first, but in the long run, you will slowly start handling situations better and better. Looks now like the market has turned bearish. Weekly EMA and fist W fib level are very far down. Uptrend line on high TF's is also broken. The buy wont just happen in a heart beat (in my opinion). Price will first start consolidating as bulls build strength and momentum and make a reversal pattern on the higher TF's before truly making a big move up. Hope you had a good day! If you were in with a sell on FOMC, its caviar and champagne for the holiday season! ;) Stats: The total bullish move for the day was 2'572 pips: I captured 66% (1'700pips) of the total move - Happy with that! Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
DAX - short term correction currently very Overbought!Hi guys, we are following up with our next opportunity DAX : Currently it has been perfoming fantastic as being part of the biggest Economy in Europe, and it reached a glorious All time High, following up with the western Indices , SP500,NASDAQ100 and Dow Jones. Currently the price has reached a very overbought level based on the RSI check on 1H time frame and 4H time frame, so for the time being I am looking into a short term correction with a follow up to maybe break down the current all time high and get passed it. Entry : 20,400 Target : 19,916 Let's see how things are going to formulate and move from there. As always my friends happy trading! P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
XETR:DAXShort
by DG55Capital
4