Macro Quarterly Chart of NZ50G (NZX50)Big picture view of NZX 50 Index
NZ50G Quarterly Chart
Basic Elliott Wave - 8 wave structure shown... with where I think we are now
We appear to be in a long term 5 wave trending move higher
Currently within a choppy wave 4 structure that is near completion of a triangle pattern
Triangle patterns are typically Wave 4's and lead to continuation of the trend that proceeded it
Therefore its quite likely we will base out somewhere around the 11,000 point mark (Currently at 12,116) before finding some support and moving higher
I suspect this could lead to a large 30-50% move higher, but then expect things to get choppy and sideways for a number of years... as its going to take a lot of time to correct this 15 year trend, at least 5 years...
Am looking for buy levels on some key levels on NZX stocks to start loading up long term multi year positions
Market indices
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?DAX40 (DE40) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 22,166.64
1st Support: 21,307.07
1st Resistance: 22,712.27
Risk Warning:
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Potential bearish reversal?UK100 is reacting off the pivot and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 8,458.02
1st Support: 8,185.76
1st Resistance: 8,626.49
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Another Rally To Sell?The Dow rallied on higher volume and has gapped up on futures to the trend line, notice each rally is lower highs, is this one different?
We went short on a reversal last week and then closed our short mid session with an update...now we short again. The falls this week were on lower volume, a sign of minor wave two up which should be an ABC, the C rally part underway.
Gold has very likely topped for now, we said it was possible to $3400-500...now in correction mode before the next powerful wave five up to come.
Appreciate a thumbs up, good trading and God Bless you all!
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 23/04/2025Gap up opening expected in nifty. After opening if nifty sustain above 24250 level then upside rally upto 24500+ level expected in index. Upside 24500 level will act as a strong resistance for today's session. Any further strong rally only expected after breakout of this level. Any downside movement only expected if nifty starts trading below 24200 level.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(23/04/2025)Today will be gap up opening expected in index near 55950 level. After opening expected banknifty will trade in between level of 55550 to 55950 zone in starting session. Strong upside rally expected if banknifty gives breakout of 56000 level and starts trading above 56050. This upside rally can goes upto 56450+ level in today's session. Any major downside only expected below 55450 level.
FTSE Short-Term 5 Swing Pattern Favors Additional GainsThe FTSE index experienced a significant decline from its high on April 3, 2025, reaching a low of 7552.65. We identify this as the completion of wave II. This downturn followed a zigzag pattern, a common structure in Elliott Wave analysis. Starting from the April high, the decline unfolded in three phases: wave ((A)) dropped to 8481.1, wave ((B)) rebounded to 8742.75, and wave ((C)) fell further, structured as a five-wave impulse. Within wave ((C)), the sub-waves progressed as follows: wave (1) hit 8615.96, wave (2) recovered to 8717.03, wave (3) fell to 8023.45, wave (4) rose to 8123.27, and wave (5) concluded at 7547.69, finalizing wave ((C)) and wave II.
Since hitting this low, the FTSE has begun to recover. The ongoing rally from the wave II low is unfolding in a five-wave upward pattern, suggesting potential for further gains. So far, wave 1 of this rally peaked at 8021.77, and wave 2 pulled back to 7599.56. We anticipate wave 3 to push higher soon, followed by a wave 4 pullback, and then a final wave 5 to complete wave (1) of the broader upward move. In the short term, as long as the 7547.69 low holds, any dips are likely to attract buyers at key levels (often referred to as 3, 7, or 11 swings in Elliott Wave terms), supporting further upside.
DXY Correction Persists: Further Downside Potential in FocusThe DXY remains in a prevailing downtrend, and I estimate that it is currently in the final stages of wave (v) of wave . The correction is projected to extend toward the 97.023–97.739 area. Meanwhile, the nearest potential rebound zone is located between 99.690 and 100.764.
Short-Term Opportunity in Dow Jones: Limited UpsideCurrently, I estimate that under the best-case scenario (black label), the Dow Jones is forming wave of wave B. This implies that the upside movement is likely to remain limited, with a potential retest of the 39,310–39,649 area.
Caution is advised for a possible reversal, especially if the Dow Jones fails to break above the 40,791 resistance level.
Are we out of the woods yet ? From the day chart, it is 50/50 chance as we are in a crucial position.
While we are officially no longer in a bear market, the price action are still weak and has yet to break above the resistance of 19,213 on 9th April which was the day Trump announced a 90 days cooling period.
If the price action over the next week/month continues nicely in the upward channel, then the probability of breaking above 19,213 resistance is more secured.
The challenge remains nobody knows for sure what trump cards does Trump holds and he is well aware his words alone can moves the market. He said he is unhappy with Powell and that causes market jittery, another fall day and the next day, he said he has no intention of firing him.
And we have Bessent saying the de-escalation with China is coming to a close (really?) and that drives the market higher.
I bet it is very tough to be in Trump's team , facing so much pressure and stress and saying things out of proportions on a daily basis. Credibility is definitely at stake, just like a shattered mirror, the cracks will forever be there.
IF you feel extremely uncomfortable and you have positions in the US markets, perhaps trimming some of your holdings might help you to sleep better. Avoid taking on unnecessary risks by betting on short term market moves. The hardest part of trading is psychology and if you got lucky once or twice winning your bets, are you going to stop and not continue ? Or will you bet bigger? 90% of the traders will do the latter thinking they got things under control and that is when the market takes an abrupt turn and kill you without batting an eyelid.
Stay safe, stay wise, always have stop loss if you want to trade, never borrow money no matter how reliable you think your tips/indicators are telling you.
S&P500 Long then Short: Last Wave 5 of 5In this video, I updated the wave counts for S&P500 and expects a last wave 5 of 5 (thus the long). I uses 2 Fibonacci extensions to project the final target and chose the lower of the target as the TP.
Once the target is reached, then we look for a reversal signal before entering short. The target of the short will be the end of sub-wave 4 as illustrated.
Good luck!
A doji at the top in Nifty. Reversal? 22nd April nifty daily candle formed a Doji at the top of the rally. It's a sign to be cautious. We can see a retracement of nifty back to 24121 (Spot) which is a fibo level. Once it touches that we can see what will happen next. Even a gapup today don't be bullish and be watchful of price action. With bad news coming through we can see a retracement happening.
U.S. Bulls Take Charge: S&P 500 Set to Break OutHello,
📊 S&P 500 Market Outlook – Pro-Bullish Perspective
🔥 Market Recap: The S&P 500 recently saw a significant dip, marking a 1-year low at 4805.92, largely attributed to the shockwaves caused by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. This move sent markets into a tailspin, creating heightened volatility levels not seen since the early pandemic days.
However, savvy traders recognized opportunity amidst the panic and entered strategic buy zones around those lows. Since then, the index has managed to stabilize above key technical levels, signaling potential bullish momentum building from the ground up.
🧭 Current Key Technical Levels to Watch:
1W Pivot Point (PP): ✅ Holding above 5224.13
1D Pivot Point (PP): ⚠️ Testing resistance at 5297.05
1M Strong Support/Resistance: ⛔ Acting as resistance at 5329.31
🚀 Bullish Confirmation Pathway:
To fully confirm a bottom-up bullish reversal, we’re looking for:
✅ Sustained close above the 1D PP @ 5297.05
✅ Break and hold above the 1M Resistance @ 5329.31
✅ Momentum toward the 1Y PP @ 5550.97
If these levels are conquered with conviction, it opens the door for an extended upside move toward 5878.58, aligning with a broader bullish sentiment.
🛑 Cautionary Downside Scenario:
Although currently less likely, a failure to maintain support above the 1W PP @ 5224.13 could reopen downside risk in the short term. We remain watchful of that level as a bull-bear pivot.
🌐 Macro Overview – Tariff Shock & Earnings Spotlight:
Trump’s abrupt tariff move has reshuffled the global economic deck, and investors are still processing its implications.
The S&P 500 is currently down ~14% from its February highs, but showing resilience.
Earnings season is now center stage, with major players like Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, and Boeing under the microscope.
⚠️ Volatility Index (VIX) is down from post-tariff highs (~60) to ~30, still elevated from the long-term median of 17.6, signaling cautious optimism.
💬 CEO Sentiment Matters:
As JJ Kinahan from IG North America noted:
“The view of CEOs going forward has never been more important.”
With traditional guidance uncertain, investors are leaning on transparent, scenario-based outlooks like United Airlines’ “dual roadmap” approach.
🔋 Magnificent Seven on Watch:
Alphabet: -20% YTD
Tesla: -40% YTD
These leaders are key sentiment barometers. If they bounce, the broader market is likely to follow.
🏛️ Fed & Trump Tensions:
Trump recently stated that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s termination “cannot come fast enough,” pushing for rate cuts.
Powell, however, remains cautious, citing the need for more economic data before acting.
✍️ Final Note – A Cooling Tariff War?
💬 According to Trump’s latest statement, the tone around tariffs is beginning to cool, hinting at possible de-escalation.
This development adds further bullish tailwinds to the broader market outlook.
✅ Summary:
We are leaning bullish here with the base-building process in motion. Key levels are aligning, volatility is easing, and clarity from corporate earnings could be the catalyst to propel markets upward.
Watch for a clean breakout above 5329 — that’s where the real confirmation begins. Eyes on the prize: 5878.58 👀📈
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
DXY:It will still be under pressure.Daily trading strategy.Today, the U.S. Dollar Index has shown some signs of recovery. (👉signals👉)
However, given the strong bearish sentiment towards the U.S. dollar in the current market, U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has triggered concerns about the political and economic stability of the United States. This has led to the selling off of U.S. dollar assets, putting pressure on the U.S. dollar. Technically, the U.S. Dollar Index is in a downward trend. Before effectively breaking through the key resistance level of 100, one can still consider going short on rallies.
Trading Strategy:
Sell@99.2-99
TP:98-97
The latest signals resulted in continuous profits 🤑, and accurate signals were shared daily.
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