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Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Morning -- ☀️☀️☀️ What an amazing last full week of June that was as we pulled out of corrective territory and onto new ATHs with the SP:SPX body of its weekly candle moving +3.41% -- bottom to top. The weekly move open-to-close was +$98.40 as that is how I gauge my volatility metrics. This in comparison is closest in value to IV entering the week as it was stating an implied move of +/-$102.08, which was a volatility read of 16.34% -- As you see in reflection of the weekly chart below and within daily candle structure, price action moved upwards all week surpassing quarterly marks. This in turn is raising short-term volatility and lowering monthly averages as we rotate higher. Here is the weekly price action of the TVC:VIX from a 5m perspective. This is showing the EOW trend break upwards drilling the indices back down -- A healthy pullback after being seemingly over-extended. This happened during the news cycle release of the U.S. and Canada reciprocal tariff disagreement. Hopefully this settles over the weekend and we rotate higher into the 4th of July week. Now looking towards this holiday week -- We have the SP:SPX IV (13.29%) after melting during the ATHs move previously -3.09% -- This places IV on the sliding yearly spectrum at the 39% down range showing increasing discount in yearly value. Remember, If you form option positions IV affects VEGA 1% at a time and the algos bid down IV in contracting markets as they rotate higher. HV10 (12.46%) has hinged down and still is contractive per IV prediction but, increasing in comparison with a ' strength of IV ' now showing 94% entering this week. As the TVC:VIX has closed at $16.32 -- I believe that there is still a little room to extend potentially upwards to the HV10 weekly range of $6253.59. Currently, the SP:SPX YTD return is +4.96% with weekly momentum pointing up and room for volatility to still decrease. If this mark is reached it would put the YTD return at +6.52%. Very feasible and realistic being halfway through the year and going into the 4th of July 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 Watch as we climb the wall of worries around us. This would in turn decrease short-term volatility more maybe even to a bottoming point and IV would melt during the rotation upwards with the VIX slowly grinding down. Come back next week as we review what happened within the implied ranges posted and overlook the volatility potentially bottoming and looking towards a VIX spike in the near future. Remember to know your ABCs and stay hedged against your bias! CHEERS!
CBOE:VIXLong
by splitmyIVandmelt
2
Dollar Bullish Correction To $103 - $105While we expected to see some Dollar upside in Q2, the economy was in such a bad state that the Dollar could not hold its value. Since the start of 2025 the Dollar is down 12% and this is only the beginning. I believe we will see more downside in the future. But for the coming quarter there is a chance for the Dollar to get some breathing space & recover in the short term. Overall, the trend of the Dollar remains bearish, so what we want to keep an eye on is small pumps (short term recovery) into price zones which will allow us to short the Dollar back down. I want to see a dip lower towards $96 - $94 before sellers lose bearish momentum. If this move takes place, then we can slowly see buyers step back into the market & start pushing back to the upside. Once price hits our ‘Supply Zone’ of $103 again, it’ll give us a more clear indication of what the Dollar will do next; whether that’s a longer term uptrend or a continuation to the downside.
TVC:DXYLong
by BA_Investments
Watch out for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD made a gap lower but after the fill it went further up and broke the previous swing high (ATH). This could be the last wave 5 (orange) of wave 3 (red). So next week we could see this pair go lower for a (big) correction down. Let's see what the market does and react if it reaches the Daily bullish FVG's. Trade idea: Wait for price come into the Daily bullish FVG's to trade longs again. At the moment price is too high to trade. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USD
by EduwaveTrading
1
Hourly SAR moved above priceThis is an earlier signal compared to the standard bearish Wolfewave entry - which is price entering back below the 1-3 line. Here, I placed a 1:3 risk/reward ratio. Keep in mind that there could be stop hunters just above the bear risk tolerance. Next in line in the fractal order to mark a swing high will be the 4 hour SAR. Standard bearish Wolfewave Target is the 1-4 line. Alternative Targets are the Magic Lines. Patterns can fail Do your own due diligence.
SP:SPX
by FibonacciTradingCrew
1
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 27, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the current trading week, the S&P 500 Index has predominantly demonstrated an upward trajectory, surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 6046, the Outer Index Rally target of 6073, and the critical Key Resistance threshold of 6150. Currently, the index is exhibiting a bullish trend, indicating potential movement towards the Outer Index Rally objective of 6235. However, it is essential to note that there is a substantial probability that prices may retract from their current levels to test the Mean Support at 6136 before experiencing a resurgence.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
NI225: Move Down Expected! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse NI225 together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 40,150.79 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 39,753.50..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
TVC:NI225Short
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
US30 DETAIL ANALYSIS 1. Fundamental Analysis The US30, tracking 30 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S., currently reflects a mixed but cautiously optimistic macroeconomic backdrop. Economic Growth Outlook The U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% annualized in Q1 2025, revised down from initial estimates. The contraction was largely driven by a surge in imports before new tariffs took effect, which distorted net exports. As a result, the Federal Reserve revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to approximately 1.4%—a downgrade from the previous 1.7% projection. Private-sector forecasts, including those from Deloitte and S&P Global, echo this view, suggesting a growth range between 1.1% and 1.5% for the year. Inflation & Federal Reserve Policy Core PCE inflation—the Fed’s preferred metric—rose to 2.7% year-over-year in May, above the central bank's 2% target. Similarly, core CPI held at 2.8%. While inflation is cooling compared to previous cycles, it remains sticky. Consequently, the Fed has signaled no immediate plans to cut rates, with the earliest possibility being in September. Inflation expectations for year-end 2025 have been revised up to around 3%, in part due to geopolitical shocks and new tariffs. Labor Market & Consumption Trends The unemployment rate remains stable near 4.2%, reflecting labor market resilience. However, real disposable income and consumer spending both declined in May, down 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively. The drop indicates potential weakening in consumer demand and future GDP prints. Confidence indices also showed a dip, although a decline in inflation expectations could moderate the downside pressure. Tariff Effects and Global Risk Average U.S. tariff levels are at historic highs, ranging between 15–19%, weighing on import costs and corporate margins. The ongoing trade frictions with China, coupled with Middle East tensions (particularly between Israel and Iran), add geopolitical volatility and inflationary risks. Leading institutions warn of stagflation—a toxic mix of slow growth and persistent inflation—pressuring equity valuations. 2. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Evaluation The latest COT data reflects a nuanced view of institutional behavior in equity index futures: Asset Managers have increased net long exposure to US indices, including the Dow, suggesting underlying bullish conviction from long-term holders. Leveraged Funds (Hedge Funds) have shown mixed sentiment—reducing short positions, but not aggressively adding longs—indicating a cautious optimism. Retail Traders are predominantly short , which often signals further upside potential due to their tendency to be positioned against the dominant trend. This asymmetric positioning—combined with macro and structural tailwinds—strengthens the smart money bias toward continuation of the bullish trend, especially as the Dow approaches key technical levels. 3. Technical & SMC-Based Analysis The daily US30 chart reflects a clear bullish structure, rooted in classic Smart Money Concepts: Market Structure A Valid Break of Structure (BOS) confirms upside intent, following a successful sweep of internal liquidity. The sequence of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) remains intact. Internal Liquidity has been swept, with price now targeting external liquidity near the All-Time High (ATH) zone. Key Technical Levels Buying Area 1: Around 43,150 – labeled as the H4 inducement zone. A retest here with bullish price action (engulfing or FVG fill) may trigger continuation long entries. Buying Area 2: Between 42,450–42,650 – a deeper demand zone where price previously showed strong displacement. A high-probability re-entry zone upon confirmation. Short-Term Sell Area: Around 44,800 – this zone aligns with potential distribution. Short positions should only be considered here upon confirmation of bearish BOS. ATH & BSL: The final liquidity target in the current structure, marking the range highs. Liquidity Pools Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): Around 41,800, and a Strong Low exists near 40,900 – both are key areas to be respected in the bullish thesis. Price is currently aiming toward external BSL above ATH, which is likely to be swept before any significant correction. 4. Strategic Outlook & Trade Plan ✅ Bullish Continuation Scenario Buy Entry #1: 43,150 zone – confirmation through bullish PA on retest. Buy Entry #2: 42,450–42,650 – deeper re-entry upon mitigation of FVG or OB. Take Profit Targets: TP1: 44,800 (potential distribution zone), TP2: 45,200 (external BSL at ATH). Stop Loss: Below 42,200 (under Demand Area 2 or SSL). ⚠️ Bearish Contingency (Only if BOS to Downside) Monitor for failed structure or strong rejection at 44,800–45,200. BOS below 43,000 could shift structure and signal a move toward the 42,200 zone. Break of Strong Low (~40,900) invalidates bullish structure. Conclusion The current market environment supports a measured bullish bias in the US30, driven by: Resilient labor and inflation expectations moderating; Institutional accumulation per COT data; A technically clean smart money bullish structure; Potential for liquidity sweep above ATH before any significant distribution. That said, macro risks such as tariffs, global geopolitical tensions, and sticky inflation remain key wildcards that could introduce volatility. NOTE: ONLY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
BLACKBULL:US30
by Awii_Khan
Medium to long term targets for Nifty. We have used parallel channel and Fibonacci retracement on Nifty weekly chart to gauge medium to long term targets for Nifty. The Fibonacci retracement points out that the support for Nifty will remain at 25233(Fibonacci Support and mid channel support), 23903 (Important Fibonacci support), 23774 (Important Mother line support or 50 weeks EMA, channel bottom support). Nifty can go below these levels only in situation of another major global event or some major local event. If we get a closing below 23774 the Bear will be in commanding situation and will have the power to take Nifty further down towards 21743 which was the recent low we reached during Indo-Pak conflict. The resistances for Nifty now are at 26277 (Major Resistance, Previous All Time high of Nifty), The next leap of faith for Nifty can be towards 27665 after we get a closing above 26277. (This will be a major hurdle and in next 1 year or so it is highly unlikely that we will cross this level unless we hit a euphoria zone.) This zone is also the current channel top zone. In very unlikely circumstance of Nifty crossing 27665 the next target for Nifty will be at 29539. (This looks possible in 18 to 24 months). We will be very lucky to reach this zone earlier. You never say never in the market. As of now the local factors remain optimistic but there is a concern by experts related to valuation of market. As the Nifty PE currently is around 23. The results in the next couple of quarters will determine if Bull market stays active. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Happy_Candles_Investment
Nifty Auto Index – Breakout Watch with Bullish MomentumNifty Auto Index—Breakout Watch with Bullish Momentum Timeframe: Daily Current Price: ₹24,007.95 Trend: Consolidation Breakout / Bullish Setup 🔍 Technical Highlights: Consolidation Zone: Price has remained in a tight sideways range for the past 5 weeks (~₹23,000–₹24,000), indicating accumulation. Breakout Attempt: Price is currently testing the upper band of this consolidation box (as seen in the green highlighted zone). Support Zone: Strong support from both PEMA Bands and Developing Weekly/Monthly CPR (₹23,670–₹23,837). 📌 Trade Idea: Trade Type: Positional Swing Long Entry: On daily close above ₹24,050 with volume confirmation Targets: T1: ₹24,345 T2: ₹25,343 Stop Loss: ₹23,670 (below Monthly CPR and PEMA support) ⚠️ Risk Management Notes: Risk-to-reward is favorable if entered near breakout with SL below the CPR zone. Monitor for any rejection at weekly/monthly H3 zones for partial booking. Avoid fresh longs if the index fails to hold above ₹24,000 by the end of the week. The Nifty Auto Index shows strong signs of bullish momentum as it attempts to break out of a 5-week range, supported by PEMA and Camarilla levels. A close above ₹24,050 may initiate a new swing leg toward ₹25,000+.
NSE:CNXAUTOLong
by Game_0f_Pivot
V2. US S&P Zones - PMI Manuf, USINTR, Inflation, DXY & QEV2. US S&P Zones - PMI Manuf, USINTR, Inflation, DXY & QE US S&P Zone Analysis -- Correlation with 1. Leading Economic Indicators (PMI Manufacturing Index, PMI Services Index, Building Permits) 2. US Interest Rates (MEAN 1.97 from Jan 2003) 3. US Inflation Rate YoY 4. Dollar Index (DXY) 5. Quantitative Easing Episodes WHY CHANGE IN APPROACH? As per Ammar Bhai, Red and other Zones for US and developed markets shall not follow only Interest Rates after 2000. Traditional single impact of Interest Rate is not Enough. NOTE ABOUT INFLATION ABOVE 5% It was also noticed that if inflation was about 5% that coincided with Red and Yellow zone and it must be avoided for stock trading. NEW APPROACH NEW GREEN ZONE 1. PMI Manuf Index is RISING or ABOVE 50 2. Interest Rates are FALLING or LEVELED or BELOW MEAN (Expansionary Policy in Effect) 3. Inflation is FALLING or AROUND TARGET 4. DXY is FALLING or SIDEWAYS 5. Stock Market RISING NEW APPROACH for RED ZONE 1. PMI Manuf Index is FALLING or BELOW 50 2. Interest Rates are RISING or LEVELED or ABOVE MEAN (Contractionary Policy in Effect) 3. Inflation is RISING or SIDEWAYS. (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%) 4. DXY is RISING 5. Stock Market FALLING or SIDEWAYS NEW YELLOW ZONE 1. PMI Manuf Index is RISING or ABOVE 50 2. Interest Rates are RISING or LEVELED 3. Inflation is RISING or SIDEWAYS (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%) 4. DXY is RISING or SIDEWAYS 5. Stock Market RISING or SIDEWAYS NEW ORANGE ZONE 1. PMI Manuf Index is SIDEWAYS or BELOW 50 2. Interest Rates are FALLING or LEVELED or BELOW MEAN (Expansionary Policy in Effect) 3. Inflation is FALLING or SIDEWAYS (Also Check if Inflation rate is above 5%) 4. DXY is FALLING or SIDEWAYS 5. Stock Market RISING or SIDEWAYS Historically whenever Interest Rates are dropping, US market goes down for some months: US somehow try to control Inflation before bringing the interest rates down. When Inflation is under control and Growth has not gone down much, then they decrease the interest rates Because in past whenever Interest rates were decreased, growth also fell for some months and then improved. Then FED does QE, which bring surplus cash in the market, Which drops Dollar rate, that helps the Stock Market grow.
SP:SPX
by haroonraees
Weekly Volatility SnapshotGood Morning -- I hope everyone had a good week of trading ranges -- although short, we saw some VOLATILITY . Here we will step back with the year-to-date TVC:VIX in the background as we look towards a fresh week trading within the broader market ranges. Let us begin -- Last week the S&P500 -- with the SP:SPX gapped up opening into strength of a short week at $6,007.46 and wicking up to $6,050.83 only to sell off during U.S. wartime engagement threats within the news cycle, closing the weeks range at $5,984.57. This provided a move of $96.96 and is most comparative to what IV (16.18%) stated entering last week -- that was predicting a range of +/- $101.24. Now, looking towards this week -- IV (16.34%) is nearly unchanged as HV10 (9.75%) is showing a 'strength of IV' lowering at only 60% currently. IV within the yearly spectrum sits with an IVp of 74% -- fairly expensive as this can show the majority of money is spending up to protect downside uncertainties. Understandable of course. Our long-term trending volatility of HV63 (30.25%) is showing a 'strength of IV' at 185% which is correlating to an implied move of +/- $188.98 for the week. This is an advantage if reached of $86.90 over stated IV. A massive premium capture potential. With the MACRO news cycle pointing EXTREMELY NEGATIVE, I will be watching for volatility expansion. I believe futures will open up gapping into quarterly marks -- this is just my humble opinion of course. I see the opposite of last week happening, where we gap down and run up into the week. I don't hold a swing position, just an observation that psychologically retail will flip bearish on wartime news with a massive gap down, only to get trapped as broader markets expand upwards into the week. That's all for now. Everyone have a good week trading ranges, and I will see you Saturday to review! As always, know you ABCs and stay hedged for whatever your bias may be! CHEERS
CBOE:VIX
by splitmyIVandmelt
4
28 june Nifty50 brekout and Breakdown leval ✅ Level 1: ₹26,018 Above 10-Min Candle Closing 🔹 Indicates a short covering zone 🔸 Strategy: Close all PE positions, shift to CE or book profits Below 10-Min Candle 🔹 Hold PE positions (Safe Zone) 🔸 Suggests market facing resistance here ✅ Level 2: ₹25,830 Above 10-Min Candle 🔹 Entry-level for holding CE positions 🔸 Possible bullish breakout Below 10-Min Candle 🔹 Hold PE – but this is a Risk Zone 🔸 Caution: Trend reversal may happen ✅ Level 3: ₹25,670 Above 10-Min Candle 🔹 Indicates positive market sentiment 🔸 Hold CE (Calls) Below 10-Min Candle 🔹 Indicates negative trade view 🔸 Hold PE (Puts) ✅ Level 4: ₹25,578 Above Opening S1 Level (10-Min Candle) 🔹 CE buy/hold confirmation Below Opening R1 Level (10-Min Candle) 🔹 PE hold confirmation 🔸 Market turning weak ✅ Level 5: ₹25,478 Above 10-Min Candle 🔹 Buy/Hold CE Below 10-Min Candle 🔹 Buy/Hold PE 🔸 Important pivot level – directional bias confirmation ✅ Level 6: ₹25,290 Above 10-Min Candle 🔹 Safe Zone to hold CE Below 10-Min Candle 🔹 Unwinding zone 🔸 Exit CE positions, reduce longs – possible sharp fall 📊 Live Market Reference Current Market Price (CMP): ₹25,632.45 Below ₹25,670 = Negative Bias Strategy: Until price crosses ₹25,670 and sustains for 10 min, avoid CE entries or keep trailing SL on PE. 🎯 Sample Option Strategy (Example): If price is below ₹25,670: ✅ Buy PE (Put Option) Strike: ATM or slightly ITM (e.g., 25,600 PE) Stop-Loss: If price moves above ₹25,670 Target: ₹25,478 / ₹25,290 If price is above ₹25,670: ✅ Buy CE (Call Option) Strike: ATM or slightly OTM (e.g., 25,700 CE) Stop-Loss: If price breaks back below ₹25,670 Target: ₹25,830 / ₹26,018 📌 Important Notes: This strategy is intraday based on 5-min chart levels. Levels like ₹25,478 and ₹25,290 are key for risk management.
NSE:NIFTY
by mayuraj_820
1