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Planning SPX Longs into A Break Lower SPX made the top off the 2.61 and today on the news of rate cuts it slammed to the implied target level for that. Hit targets on a lot of my shorts today. Have some extremely deep OTMs still running but these are a nominal part of my risk and just there to benefit from a super rejection of the macro 4.23 fib. In terms of nearer term swing assessment, we're now getting close to the level I think we'd be likely to find support if this is a bull move that is just having a flash crash correction. Planning to start picking up longs if we spike down closer to 5800. Will likely buy deep OTM calls at this price if we hit it. Broadly speaking risk off on my positions at the moment. Banked most of my profits. Don't plan to do much trading the rest of the year. Do plan to do a lot of trade plan prepping for decision at the macro inflection point. Whatever way it goes, my hypothesis is we're going to see faster and faster markets going forward. Great times to be a trader. I want to make sure I'm prepped to benefit from any of the "Known" outcomes that fit inside my strats.
SP:SPXLong
by holeyprofit
DXY Will Grow! Long! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 30m Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The price is testing a key support 108.242. Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 108.539 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
2
DXY Will Go Up From Support! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 12h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 106.945. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 108.251 level soon. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
US30 POSSIBLE BUY The market is currently testing the current Weekly 0.78 Fib area. Based on 4HR TF, the market seems to be forming a possible reversal pattern. We could see BUYERS coming in strong should the current level hold. Disclaimer: Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is solely intended for educational and informational purposes only.The analysis provided is based on my own view of the market. Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. High-Risk Warning Trading in foreign exchange on margin entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. In this case, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and in your favor.
TRADENATION:US30Long
by WiLLProsperForex
Downward pressure on S&P 500 Index intensified past daysYesterday's sell-off damaged the S&P 500's 50-day moving average. While we initially saw a bounce back at the opening, it didn't hold. This makes the 5925 level a critical point to watch as we head toward the end of the year. For those keeping an eye on the charts, a trendline has been intact since the low in October 2023. Although it was breached during the August downturn, we managed to rally back into the bullish channel that's been forming since the fourth quarter of 2023. This channel offers support around the 5800 mark, and I anticipate this level will hold as we close out the year. Should we dip further, the following support levels to watch are 5690 and 5525. While I don't foresee us dropping to these lower levels before year-end, it's essential to acknowledge the potential downside risk. The market sentiment shifted following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, giving sellers the upper hand for the first time since the summer.
SP:SPX
by IrinaTK
Rate Cut Disappoints: Stocks and Gold Experience Sharp Declines◉ Abstract On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25%, marking its third cut in a row. However, the Fed also said it might not cut rates much more in the future because it expects the economy to grow stronger and inflation to continue. This cautious message worried investors, causing a sharp drop in the stock market. The S&P 500 fell about 2.96%, its biggest one-day loss since August. Gold prices also dropped by around 1.6%. The declines in both stocks and gold show that investors are feeling uncertain about the economy and are rethinking their investments based on the Fed's outlook. Continue reading the full article: ◉ Introduction On December 18, 2024, both the S&P 500 and gold experienced significant declines, driven primarily by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions and market reactions to economic forecasts. ◉ Federal Reserve's Decision ● The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25%. This is typically a positive move for equities and commodities like gold. ● However, the Fed signalled a more cautious approach to future rate cuts, expecting stronger economic growth and persistent inflation. ● This cautious outlook raised concerns about the possibility of limited future rate cuts, which spooked investors. ◉ Market Reactions 1. Stock Market Decline ● The S&P 500 fell by approximately 2.96%, marking its largest single-day percentage drop since August 5th. ● The market's reaction reflected a realization that previous optimistic expectations about aggressive rate cuts were misplaced. 2. Gold's Decline ● Gold prices dropped sharply, with an intraday decline of about 1.6%. ● Gold, while a safe-haven asset, is less desirable in a rising rate environment due to increased opportunity costs. ● With the Fed's indication of fewer future rate cuts, investors shifted away from gold. ◉ Overall Market Sentiment The simultaneous decline in both equities and gold can be attributed to a broader market sentiment that reacted negatively to the Fed's cautious outlook on inflation and growth prospects. This created a risk-off environment where investors were uncertain about both stock valuations and commodity holdings.
SP:SPX
by NaranjCapital
1
SPX 2025 Strategic Outlook 7150 points Wave Five Bull Market🔸Time to update the SPX outlook, this is 2D price chart, we are currently entering overpriced zone and limited upside in SPX going forward next few weeks correction / pullback. 🔸SPX price structure since 2023 is defined by a five wave impulse wave 3 completed already and currently we are in wave 4 pullback/correction until 5415 points. expecting wave four pullback to complete in January 2025. 🔸Wave 1 is 3600 to 4625, wave two 4625 to 4125, wave three 4125 to 6100,wave 4 pullback/correction now is 6100 to 5416, final bullish wave five is expected to start from 5415 to 7150 points (30% bull run). Wave 5 expected to start in January 2025 and complete sometime in Q4 2025. A/B/C 40% correction will follow as the market will enter extremely overbought zone. 🔸Recommended strategy position traders: wait for the wave 4 correction to complete at/near 5415 points in January 2025 and then BUY/HOLD into wave 5 final target is 7150 points in Q4 2025. Obviously, this is a longer BUY/HOLD trade setup and patience is required with this trade. good luck! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
SP:SPXLong
by ProjectSyndicate
8
SP500 Weekly Trade Idea – Valid only with Close below 5977.8The S&P 500 has been on a stellar rally this year, rewarding long-term investors who bought and held through market turbulence. However, the current technical and macroeconomic setup suggests a possible correction could be on the horizon. Here’s how to approach it strategically. 🛠️ Technical Analysis from the Chart: 1️⃣ **Resistance Zone (6025-6050):** - The index is facing strong resistance in this red zone, indicating a potential **stall in bullish momentum**. Failure to break through this level increases the likelihood of a pullback. 2️⃣ Critical Support Levels: - **5690-5628 Zone:** First significant demand zone. A break below could trigger deeper corrections. - **5395-5365 Zone:** Key structural support from previous accumulation. - Long-term potential target near **4500**, aligning with historical correction structures. 3️⃣ Weekly Close Watch (5977.8): - A **close below 5977.8** could confirm the start of a correction, likely forming a 3-to-5 wave structure typical of corrective phases. 🌍 Macro Context – Inflation and Valuations: - Inflation Data: - In **March 2020**, inflation was at **1.5%**, and stimulus packages helped buoy the market. - By **March 2021**, inflation climbed to **2.6%**, reflecting economic recovery and stimulus impacts. - November 2024 inflation** sits at **2.7%**, signaling a moderating trend but with base effects and monetary policies still in play. - Market Valuations: - The **Buffett Indicator** (Market Cap to GDP ratio) shows the market remains significantly overvalued. This aligns with Warren Buffett’s recent positioning, where **25% of his portfolio is in cash**, waiting for better buying opportunities. 💡 Trade Idea: 📉 Prepare for the Correction: - A correction to the **4500 level** would represent a compelling buying opportunity for long-term investors. - Avoid shorting the market; instead, focus on cash preservation and building a watchlist of fundamentally strong companies. 📊 Long-Term Strategy: - Stick to Warren Buffett’s principle: **"Be greedy when others are fearful."** - Utilize cash reserves to capitalize on discounted prices during market panic. 📌 Key Levels to Watch: - Resistance: **6025-6050 - Supports: **5690-5628**, **5395-5365**, and long-term 4500. 🚀 Optimistic Outlook: Corrections are **opportunities, not threats**. They allow investors to buy quality assets at a discount and position themselves for the next bull cycle. "Price is what you pay; value is what you get." – Warren Buffett 🐂✨ Let volatility work in your favor! 🌟
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Mike_SnD
Technical Analysis of NIFTY Index - 30-Minute TimeframeDouble Top Pattern: The chart shows a double top pattern (marked as "Top 1" and "Top 2"), which is a bearish reversal pattern. The neckline for this pattern has been broken, confirming bearish momentum. The pattern suggests that the uptrend has reversed, leading to a downward move. Falling Wedge Pattern: After the double top, the index has formed a falling wedge, which is typically a bullish reversal pattern. The price has broken out of the falling wedge, signaling the potential for a short-term bounce. Targets: Immediate Upside Target: The breakout from the falling wedge suggests a potential recovery toward 24,200–24,300. Downside Target: If bearish momentum resumes, the index could move toward 23,500 as marked on the chart. Volume Analysis: The breakout from the falling wedge is accompanied by a slight increase in volume, which supports the bullish case. However, sustained volume is needed for the uptrend to continue. Support and Resistance Levels: Support: Immediate: 23,800 Stronger: 23,500 Resistance: Immediate: 24,200–24,300 Extended: 24,500 Moving Averages: The index is currently trading near its short-term moving averages, which could act as dynamic resistance. A breakout above these levels would confirm further bullish momentum. Fundamental Analysis of NIFTY Index Macroeconomic Environment: Global Factors: Uncertainty in global markets, including rising interest rates and geopolitical tensions, have added to the volatility in Indian markets. Domestic Growth: India's economy continues to grow steadily, supported by strong consumer demand, government infrastructure spending, and a robust services sector. Sectoral Performance: IT and Pharma: Defensive sectors like IT and Pharma have seen relative strength amid global uncertainties. Banking and Financials: Despite some recent corrections, banking and financial services continue to drive the index, supported by rising credit growth and strong results from private banks. Metals and Energy: Global commodity prices and demand from China remain key drivers for metals and energy stocks. Corporate Earnings: Indian corporates have shown resilience with steady earnings growth, particularly in the FMCG, banking, and auto sectors. However, margin pressures persist in some sectors due to higher input costs. Valuation: NIFTY's valuation remains slightly stretched compared to historical averages, suggesting room for further correction. However, strong long-term growth potential keeps the outlook positive. Key Risks: Rising interest rates globally could tighten liquidity. Any further escalation in geopolitical tensions or slower global growth could impact market sentiment. Conclusion: Technical Outlook: NIFTY has formed a double top, confirming bearish momentum, but a breakout from the falling wedge offers a short-term bullish opportunity. Upside Targets: 24,200–24,300 Downside Risk: 23,500 (if bearish momentum resumes) Fundamental Outlook: India’s economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by consumer demand and government spending. While the market faces short-term headwinds, the long-term outlook remains positive, making this an opportunity to accumulate quality stocks during corrections.
NSE:NIFTY
by TheWealthyInvestorbyDSAB
Nifty Intraday Trade Setup | 20th DecemberNifty opened with a big gap-down near crucial support of 23850 today due to US markets and Nifty traded in a range created in first 15 mins. For tomorrow, if Nifty sustains above 24000 we expect to see an upmove towards 24080 and above marked levels. On the other side, if Nifty breaks 23920 on downside we may see 23920 and below marked levels on the chart. Expectations: Volatile day Intraday Levels: Buy Above - 24000 Sell Below - 23920 To motivate us, Please like the idea If you agree with the analysis. Happy Trading! InvestPro India
NSE:NIFTY
by InvestPro_India
2