Tariff Talks Flip the Tape - 5400 Under FireWolfe Gasping, Bulls Grinning
Well, this is exactly what every bear didn’t want to wake up to…
Overnight, markets surged higher after Trump hinted at easing tariffs and gave Powell a thumbs-up. It’s like watching your opponent trip mid-game, then suddenly recover, score a hat trick, and throw you a smug grin.
That line in the sand we’ve been talking about?
5400.
It’s been the invalidation level for weeks – and now it’s being bulldozed like it never mattered.
This isn’t about guessing the news.
It’s about having a clear point where your bias says, “Okay, I’m out.”
The Wolfe was working… until it wasn’t.
And that’s okay.
Because while the bear swing has been fantastic, we’re now seeing what might be the higher low reversal we flagged a few weeks ago - just without the drop to 5000 first.
Frustrating? A little.
Unexpected? Not really.
Tradable? Absolutely.
Let’s look at how this flips our setup for today.
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SPX Market View - Bull Bias Activated (Finally)
Well, that escalated quickly.
With the overnight futures surge and 5400 now breached, the Wolfe Wave is officially off the board. Our long-standing bear bias has been invalidated — and we flip bullish for the first time in weeks.
This is the power of having a system.
You don’t need to guess. You just need a line in the sand. Ours was 5400. Price crossed it. The bias flips.
Here’s what I’m watching now:
5400 is now the breakout zone – if it holds at the cash open, bulls have full control
Higher low structure playing out across the daily chart
GEX positioning will be key — I’ll be watching for hedging demand shifts to confirm upside stability
This doesn’t mean we go all-in bull mode with blind optimism.
It means we assess new setups in line with the price action, and if they confirm – we act.
Bull’s got the ball (for now).
Let’s see if he fumbles or scores.
GEX Analysis Update
5300 acting as the updated flip point overnight
SPX prices potentially gaping 100+ points assuming the futures hold their gains.
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Expert Insights: Know Your Invalidation
❌ Clinging to a bias too long
It’s tempting to hold on to the story. “Wolfe’s still in play,” you tell yourself… even after price says otherwise.
✅ Know your invalidation level
5400 was the line. It’s been clear for weeks. Once price punched through it — the plan said, “That’s it. Game over for the bear.”
No ego. No hoping. No rewriting the script mid-trade.
Your system needs boundaries.
Otherwise, it’s not a system — it’s a story.
---
Rumour Has It…
Trump’s tweet this morning: “Tariffs are dumb. Powell’s alright. Markets UP!” Dow gained 200 in 10 seconds.
CNBC now referring to 5400 as “The Enlightenment Zone.”
The Wolfe Wave was last seen howling into the wind and fading into the distance.
(This section is entirely made-up satire. Probably.)
---
Fun Fact - The 5400 Flip
Here’s a kicker for you…
5400 has flipped bias more times than any other round number level in the SPX this year.
It's the psychological equivalent of a market mood swing.
And every time price hits it, traders start reaching for different narratives:
“It’s resistance.”
“Now it’s support.”
“No wait, it’s just a number.”
“Actually, it’s Fibonacci-magnet-retrograde!”
Sometimes it’s just this:
5400 = The Line Where We Flip.
Meme of the Day - “Wolfe’s Out. Bull’s In.”
IMAGES ON MAIN BLOG
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
Market indices
DXY on Its Way Back to 100?During Monday’s Asian session, the index saw a sharp selloff, and in the past few hours, price has entered a consolidation phase.
The current idea is that price may push higher toward the 99.17–99.26 range — and potentially beyond — in an attempt to retrace the start of that bearish impulse. There’s also a gap formed in that area.
This scenario would be invalidated if price starts dropping below 97.90.
DOLLAR I Monday CLS I KL - HTF FVG / OB I Continuation setupHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
🛡️ Models 1 and 2:
From my posts, you can learn two core execution models.
They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
📍 Model 2
occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range.
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
⚔️ Listen Carefully:
Analysis is not trading. Right now, this platform is full of gurus" trying to sell you dreams based on analysis with arrows while they don't even have the skill to trade themselves.
If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
DXY Long-Term Technical Outlook: Channel Structure, Pullbacks & ## **DXY (Dollar Index) Technical Analysis – 2W Chart**
### **1. Uptrend Since 2008**
The Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a **long-term uptrend** since the 2008 bottom (around 70.70). The chart shows a clear pattern of **higher highs and higher lows**, establishing a bullish market structure over the past 15+ years.
---
### **2. Ascending Channel**
The price has been moving consistently within a well-defined **ascending channel**. Several reactions from the channel boundaries are visible:
- **Support (lower trendline):** 2008, 2011, 2018, 2021, 2024
- **Resistance (upper trendline):** 2009, 2017, 2022
This suggests that the market is respecting the technical boundaries of the channel remarkably well.
---
### **3. Historical Pullbacks Within the Channel (13.5% – 15%)**
The chart highlights major **pullbacks** from local tops, all falling within the **-12.6% to -16.9%** range, showing high consistency:
| Year | Drop | % Decline |
|-------------|----------|----------------|
| 2009 | -14.76 | -16.47% |
| 2010 | -14.97 | -16.90% |
| 2017 | -15.17 | -14.61% |
| 2020 | -13.65 | -13.25% |
| 2022 | -14.90 | -12.98% |
| 2024/2025 | -13.90 | -12.61% |
This implies that **a retracement of 13–15%** from a local high is a historically "normal" correction within the ongoing uptrend.
---
### **4. EMA Analysis – 24, 120, 240** (2Y,5Y,10Y)
The chart includes three Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reflecting short-, medium-, and long-term trends:
- **EMA 24 (white line):** Reacts to short-term price action. Price is currently breaking below it, suggesting weakness in short-term momentum.
- **EMA 120 (red line):** Reflects the mid-term trend. Price is **right at the edge**, often acting as a **support level** in bullish markets.
- **EMA 240 (blue line):** Represents the long-term outlook. **Price has never stayed below this level for long** over the past 15 years, making this EMA a **critical support** for the long-term trend.
---
### **Conclusion & Potential Scenarios**
📉 **Bearish Scenario:**
If DXY breaks below the **EMA 240** and the **lower channel boundary**, it could indicate a **reversal of the long-term uptrend**, which hasn’t happened since 2008.
📈 **Bullish Scenario:**
If DXY holds above the **EMA 120** or bounces from the **EMA 240** and the **channel support**, we could expect a rally toward the **Fibonacci levels** (0.5 at 102.04 or 0.382 at 105.04), or even a retest of the highs around **114.78**.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5682.Colleagues, I think that the deep downward movement is over and at the moment I expect an upward movement in a five-wave impulse. At the moment I expect a correction in wave “2” to the area of 5100, after which I expect the development of wave “3” at least to the resistance area of 5682.
There are two possible ways to enter the position:
1) Market entry
2) Pending Limit Orders.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
US30 Bouncing Back – 23/04/2025🚀 US30 Bouncing Back – 23/04/2025 🚀
📈 Dow Showing Strength Off the Lows!
After bottoming near 38,400, US30 surged back above the key 38,955 level and is now consolidating just below 40k. Short-term trend has flipped bullish 📊.
🔍 Key Observations:
✅ Higher low confirmed
📈 Strong bullish impulse off 38,400
🔄 Retesting EMA support as price consolidates
📍 Still under major resistance at 40,701
🎯 Trade Plan:
🔹 Bullish bias above 38,955
🚀 Long setups valid on break & close above 40,000 → target 40,701 / 41,200
❌ Rejection from here could form a lower high → watch for bearish divergence
🧠 Psych Note: Don't chase this late rally — wait for confirmation above resistance or a pullback for re-entry.
CRT CREATEDThis week was a sweep and continue bullish, this was after the market draw on liquidity to send it off upwards. so expectation is the high will be taken out this week or next week if Thursday doesn't fulfil the wish. Monday was the low of the week during New York session causing Tuesday to follow the trend and break Monday's high
S&P500 Long and painful but necessary bottom formation.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 2-year Bullish Megaphone pattern and the recent 2-month correction completed its latest Bearish Leg, as it reached the Higher Lows trend-line.
The massive rebound that took place there on April 07 may have turned out to be a highly volatile one but as mentioned on the title, it might be long and painful, but a necessary process nonetheless. That's mainly because it is the strongest correction since 2022 and the longest Bearish Leg of the pattern.
The market remains highly volatile until it gets a clear signal, bearish below the current Support of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) or bullish above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the rather short-term uncertainty, the similarities with the Megaphone's previous bottom are uncanny, both having formed their Low on 1D RSI Double Bottom patterns.
Given that this previous Low initiated a massive +50% 1 year Bullish Leg/ rally, we expect to see at least 7100 on this next one by mid-2026.
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$SPX Urgent! My <3 & My Soul: Slow Bleed Crash to 3k by Q4 26' Do be warned. Very important post here. I put my heart and soul into this. I made a video earlier and then it got deleted by accident, so I made a less happy one right after. I've got news for all the bulls and investors out there that feel they will be able to continue buying every single dip out there. Get ready for the dip that keeps dipping. Big names already cracking heavy. NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:NVDA to name a few. Big tech is getting cleaned out and layoffs are on the rise. Tariffs create huge amounts of uncertainty. I don't feel like this is rocket science. Buffet is all cash. 89% of Hedge Fund managers believe the US market is the most expensive its ever been and Tutes have been selling at the highest rate ever before. I think it's time the US finally gets a shake down. Bullish conditioning has been running rampant, and I've seen Social Media Accounts discourage charting and only paying attention to price action? Price action involves the entire collective, not just one Timeframe. Anyways, here's an overlay from 01' ... the only one I could find that matches. Says short 560 around May 7th and then take profits around 500 again. Let's make this a nice one. Calls till 560 into May then flip to Puts into June. From then short 530 every time you can. $450 is My first target after we break previous lows. I will update as we go. Have a good one yall.
NAS100USD: Will Price Fill the Gap?Greetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe that the market is currently operating within a broader bullish institutional order flow. However, recent price action has left behind an inefficiency—a gap that may serve as a short-term draw on liquidity.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
1. Gap in Price – Inefficiency Identified:
Price has created an imbalance that is yet to be filled. Typically, such inefficiencies act as magnets for price, drawing it back before resuming its primary trend. In this case, the gap may be partially filled as the market seeks equilibrium.
2. Draw on Liquidity – Last Point of Efficiency:
The last point of efficiency below current price levels may serve as the draw on liquidity. This level could attract price action as institutions look to rebalance orders and facilitate continuation.
3. Active Order Block – Potential Entry Zone:
Price is currently testing a bearish order block. Upon confirmation, this area may offer a short-term selling opportunity with the objective of targeting the liquidity pool and the inefficiency below.
TRADING PLAN:
Entry Consideration:
Look for bearish confirmation within the current order block zone before entering. The goal is to trade the short-term retracement within a bullish environment.
Profit Targets:
Target the liquidity pool and the unfilled gap near the last point of efficiency as short-term objectives.
Remain diligent, patient, and aligned with your trading plan. Always conduct your own analysis to ensure any setup is in harmony with your strategy and risk tolerance.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
Ger40 dax SeekingPips short SELL UP here hight Reward to Risk🌟Good morning ladies and gentlemen.🌟
I like the Reward to Risk profile on this setup over 7r ✅️
Although it's one of my lower win rate strategies it's a simple set and forget trade setup with the statistics to backbup my plan.
🟢SeekingPips🟢 is short with Stop Loss above the highest high this morning.
On the feed that I am using that high 21839.5
I'M LOOKING for a GAP FILL🚥
KSE 100 | Wedge Pattern in FocusThe chart displays the KSE-100 Index on a 1-hour timeframe, showing a rising wedge pattern—a typically bearish formation suggesting a potential reversal or breakdown. The index is currently trading near the wedge’s upper boundary and just below the marked "Break Out Level" at 119,217.19. If the price breaks above this level with strong momentum, it may continue towards the 120,000 zone. However, a rejection at the resistance line could trigger a decline, with the first key support around 115,877.88. The MACD indicator below the chart shows waning bullish momentum as the histogram trends toward the zero line and the MACD line (blue) is close to crossing below the signal line (orange), reinforcing the bearish bias. Overall, the index appears to be at a critical juncture, and traders should watch for a confirmed breakout or breakdown to determine the next significant move.
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BANK NIFTY | SHORT | SWINGBANK NIFTY seems to now be in overbought zone.
Price is struggling to form new High and today morning there was a big sell off.
There is also a H&S pattern formation visible on the 15 chart.
Basis these, I have taken a short position for a Target to the 200 MA of the 15 min.
This is a Mean Reversion trade as I feel that the BN is overstretched and a snap back is imminent.
Bullish Breakout on NAS100 – Momentum ShiftingNASDAQ 100 (US100) – Bullish Setup Developing
1. Falling Wedge Breakout:
Price has broken out of the falling wedge (purple trendlines), signaling a potential reversal to the upside.
2. Retesting Breakout Zone:
Current price action is retesting the breakout level near the 18,000 zone, indicating potential support forming.
3. Trendline Confluence:
The breakout aligns with the lower boundary of the broader ascending channel (blue), acting as dynamic support.
4. Strong Bullish Rejection at Lows:
Price showed strong buying interest near 17,700, forming a bullish rejection wick and bounce.
5. Clean Target Ahead:
Next key resistance zone lies around 18,540, where price may face selling pressure again – this matches previous structure and descending channel resistance.
6.Momentum Shift Noted:
Lower highs and lower lows structure has been invalidated, hinting at a possible trend shift.
Thanks for your Time..
Macro Quarterly Chart of NZ50G (NZX50)Big picture view of NZX 50 Index
NZ50G Quarterly Chart
Basic Elliott Wave - 8 wave structure shown... with where I think we are now
We appear to be in a long term 5 wave trending move higher
Currently within a choppy wave 4 structure that is near completion of a triangle pattern
Triangle patterns are typically Wave 4's and lead to continuation of the trend that proceeded it
Therefore its quite likely we will base out somewhere around the 11,000 point mark (Currently at 12,116) before finding some support and moving higher
I suspect this could lead to a large 30-50% move higher, but then expect things to get choppy and sideways for a number of years... as its going to take a lot of time to correct this 15 year trend, at least 5 years...
Am looking for buy levels on some key levels on NZX stocks to start loading up long term multi year positions