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Nasdaq Intraday Review - Friday 8 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Been quiet, dealing with a personal issue - but time to get back into trading. Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None today. Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps yesterday. News - Trump won the US presidential election. Directional bias - BUY. The strong upsurge in the stock markets are a clear indication that the markets view the US election results favourably. Bulls have stepped in with both volume and momentum. Morning analysis: M TF - Very bullish, current candle is 12'500 pips strong W TF - Very bullish, fib levels moved up and now coincide with D fib levels = TF confluence and strong levels D TF - Second day of highest D candle close. Bulls are dominating. Strong fib levels as coincide with W. 4H - Difficult to draw fib because price action just moved straight up, but used the line chart to give best estimate (fib drawn from swing low at A to swing high at B) and 4H 0.382 fib level lines up perfectly with pivot point. This is my interest area / area of confluence for today. During the day: Price formed a rising wedge on the 1H TF, marked with the blue lines. Price broke the market pattern downwards and moved down past the market pattern profit target, marked by blue vertical line (i.e. price usually moves down the same distance as the height of the market pattern). As price neared my area of interest, I noted a double bottom form on the 5min TF and entered. Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations: 1. Trend - a buy is in the same direction as the overall trend - the trend is your friend 2. Fib - price made a DB above the 4H 0.382 fib level - 4H fib levels are strong levels. 3. Market pattern - DB formed on the 5min TF with neckline broken upwards. I used the 5min TF because price was right at my area of confluence (I don't use this TF if price is not in my area of interest) 4. Candlesticks - doji candle formed on the 15min TF, thereafter, neckline of DB was broken upwards on the 5min. This indicated that sellers were unable to push price down beyond this point and that buyers stepped in. 6. S&R - DB formed above the D pivot. Mental stop placed below pivot point, at thick red line. Price moved up and is now re-testing the neckline of the 4H DT. Seems that as of now, bears are giving bulls a hard time. Once price moved up sufficiently, I secured at entry (moved SL to entry) and am now effectively trading risk free. My intention is to hold my position in case bulls can re-test and break the 4H neckline upwards. If I get taken out before that...then I would be ok with a zero profit day for my first day back. Hope you coined it during this incredible bulls rally the past few days! :) Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
SPY/SPX: Top's probably not in. Hey everyone, Excited to do this post. This is a new approach to looking at things that I found super insightful and excited to share my findings with the community! As the title suggests, the top is likely not in. How can we know this? Well, besides the very obvious bullish price action and the fact that buyers won’t let anything drop 1$ without aggressively buying, there are other, more objective ways to measure tops and such. One approach that many would use would be using the ATR range. However, ATR ranges are a little flawed, especially when looking at larger picture stuff (like annual levels). This is because ATR has limitations, such as: a) It is not inflation adjusted, b) It requires a moving average of at least 14 periods, which, in some cases, are beyond the stock’s life time, c) Is a trailing average that does not correct for bearish years and bullish years. Thus, the results are skewed if bearish years fell within the ATR trailing range. You can correct for this by doing what I do, which is creating models that look at the entire life span of a stock and correct for bullish and bearish years. However, this also has some limitations, some of the same as ATR, such as: a) Over-correcting for Bullish and Bearish years, b) Insufficient history on most stocks to have a very rigorous model, c) Difficulty accounting for fundamental and other economic catalysts. Models tend to be unbiased and so omit periods where economic circumstances propped stocks up or down. So how can we account for this, simplify it and come up with useable data? Well, the easiest way to do it, is to do a cross between an ATR and a model, using scaled data (to control for inflation) and looking at ATR of the scaled data and comparing current moves to averages as well as other times where there were similar economic and fundamental circumstances. To do this, we can use stats software such as R, SPSS, SAS, Excel or MATLAB, pull the data, standardize it and get our results. Let us do this for SPX, as it has more history. Here we have SPX’s annual returns. Converting the Close to Open difference to a percent return is a simple way of standardizing data. Now, on its own, this doesn’t tell us much, because returns are dynamic and ever changing, influenced by a combination of fundamental, economic and investor sentiment catalysts. However, we can begin to make sense of things if we start applying some concepts of ATR, most notably if we take the average gains the SPX does in a year. Doing this, we get 6% average annual return since the 1800s. However, if we isolate for ONLY bullish years, or years where SPX’s gains were >0, our average becomes 16%. Currently, SPX is at a 14% gain on the year. We can hone in a bit more, by isolation SPX’s Max gain. Doing this, we see that SPX’s biggest gain in 1 year happened in 1933, when it gained 46%. How about normal, bull market years? To figure this out, the easiest way is to rank the data from highest to lowest or lowest to highest. Then, we can take the mean, median and mode of the ranked data. We already have the mean, which is 16%, but with ranked data we can get the median and mode. First, the mode. Remember, mode is the value that occurs the most frequently. For SPX, the mode is interestingly enough 14%. Which means, of all of SPX’s bullish years, more times than not they ended at a 14% gain. Now for the median. Remember, the median is the middle value of ranked data. And surprise! Its also 14%! Its difficult to interpret what this could mean. It does tell us that we don’t have a perfect, normal distribution, because, despite the median and mode being the same, the mean is not the same (remember its 16%). But, it is close! So what does this tell us? Before we make inferences about this data, I think its important that we look at a few other things first. Most notably, the standardized version of the high to low value. The gains that we have looked at only represent the open to close. However, very rarely if ever has SPX ever closed on a high or low. So we would anticipate, looking at the actual range from high to low, we would get some different values. So let’s take a look at this on SPX’s bullish years: Looking at this, the average high to low is 25%. Currently, SPX is sitting at 16%. Exciting right? This is very far from where we are now! The MAX High to Low percent was 121% and the min was 4%. The max happened in 1933, the same year that the SPX gained a whopping 46%. For interest sake, let’s rank this data from low to high and calculate the median and mode. Doing this gives us the following: The mode is 15% and the median is 24%. So how can we use this data to make predictions about SPX? Well, we can actually calculate the targets based on the average of these values. So let’s get into it. Assuming that SPX is going to close at the average, between 14% and 16%, that would convert to a price target of 5409.53 - 5504.43. So, provided this is a bullish year (which it looks like it will be), we can expect our close to fall somewhere between 5400 and 5500, which is the average closing range of bullish years. However, SPX is still trailing below the expected high to low range, with an average range of 25% which is also the median (roughly). So with SPX’s YTD low of 4682.11, that would convert to a high of 5852.64. I don’t want to make this post too long, but I have replicated this with SPY as well and here is the data in a nutshell: SPY’s average gain on bullish years is 18%. SPY’s average high to low range on bullish years is 29%. SPY’s current gain on the year is 15%, and SPY’s current high to low range on the year is 16%. This gives the following price targets on SPY: Expected close (assuming we close at the annual average): 557.15 Expected High (assuming we meet the average high to low range): 601.67. One final note about SPY, interestingly, SPY’s largest gain was in 1995 at the start of the tech bubble where it gained a whopping 35%! Imagine SPY closing this year around 637.42?! Unthinkable! But .. possible? This is not trading advice, just trying to put things into perspective for people. I see a lot of short biased ideas continually popping up. For us to meet the average high to open range by selling, would require a HUGE tank from this position. I find the most likely and realistic is a continuation up from here to meet the average move. Safe trades everyone!
SP:SPXLong
by Steversteves
3
NAS100USD / UNDER FOMC PRESSURE / 4H NAS100USD / 4H TIME FRAME HELLO TRADERS Recent Price Movement ,The price has reached a new historical level, breaking past the last all-time high (ATH) of 20,788. Current Target , Prices are trying to approach 21,125. As long as there’s upward pressure, there’s potential for growth. Potential Retest of Support , Before continuing to increase, prices might retest an old supply zone between 20,788 and 20,662. This area serves as a potential support level, and if the price remains above it, there’s a higher chance for further increases. Upside Target , If prices stabilize above this support zone, there’s a chance of reaching a new ATH around 21,125. If it breaks this level, the next historical zone lies between 21,200 and 21,350. Downside Risk, If prices fall below the old supply zone, it could indicate a decline, with a potential target of the Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 20,482 and 20,335. This level represents a potential lower support area if the price trend reverses.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by ArinaKarayi
Nifty Medium to Long Term Outlook. Nifty on a weekly chart seems to be in the consolidation mode. With important geopolitical events that happened around the globe and India Nifty is trying to find a firm footing from where it can launch ahead. The events like Ukraine and Russia conflict, Israel and Iran++ conflict, Indian election results, Haryana assembly elections, US elections proved very volatile for the market. Upcoming events like China stimulus package and Maharashtra Elections will also be key for the direction of Nifty while moving ahead. Best case Scenario for Nifty right now following the Parallel channel seems to be 27796 towards the mid and end of First quarter of 2025. (We would have to be a pure optimist to think it can reach close to 28K in the next 5/6 months but you never say never). Median Scenario can keep Nifty range bound and we might find it exactly in the zone that it is right now that is between 24K and 25K. Worst case scenario for Nifty seems to be between 20 and 21K as of now.(This is a less likely scenario but you never say never). Major Support Levels for Nifty are at: 23816, 23211(Major Support 50 Weeks EMA-Mother Line), 22711, 21813, 21343 and 20858 (Channel Bottom Support). Major Resistance levels for Nifty are : 24589, 25241, 25796, 26277, 27120 and 27796 (Channel Top Resistance). To learn more about Parallel Channels and Mother, Father and Small Child theory read my book. The Happy Candles Way to Wealth Creation Available on Amazon in paper back and Kindle version. The book is now available on Google Play books in E-version too. Disclaimer: The views are personal and request you not to take positions based on the above data. The chart and the levels given in the message are purely for the purpose of education.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
TRUMPDOWN- Ibex 35: Week of Declines after Trump's VictoryThe Ibex 35 faces a week of losses, registering an accumulated fall of 2.2%, influenced by the reelection of Donald Trump in the U.S. The prospect of new tariffs and restrictive trade policies have generated concern, especially for Spanish companies with international operations. At mid-session, the Spanish index fell 0.28% to 11,537.60 points, and then recovered to 11,586.80 points during the midday break. Among the most affected stocks of the day were ArcelorMittal and BBVA, with declines of 2.72% and 2.59%, respectively. BBVA, in particular, faces uncertainty about how Trump's policies could influence its business in Mexico. In contrast, IAG and Grifols stand out positively, with increases of 5.82% and 5.77%, thanks to solid recent business results. International Trends: Contrasts between Europe and the United States The European context reflects investor caution, with declines in the region's main stock indexes. The German DAX and the EURO STOXX 50 are down 1.07%, while the French CAC 40 is down 1.01%. In contrast, the US indices, boosted by Trump's victory, show an opposite trend, reaching new highs on the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. This optimism on Wall Street has been helped by the Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. At the end of the morning session, all indices are negative except the IBEX and the Portuguese PSI, a clear link between politics and indices. Commodities and Currencies: Moderate Declines in Oil and Gold, with Euro Declining The commodities market has a weak tone. Brent oil has fallen by 1.47% and gold has lost 0.56% to 2,690 dollars per ounce. In the currency market, the euro is down 0.22% against the dollar, trading at 1.0782 units. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has registered an increase of 1.71%, reaching 76,312 dollars. This scenario shows a market divided between caution in Europe and optimism on Wall Street, where investors remain attentive to changes in U.S. trade policy and its impact on an uncertain economic environment. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
EShort
by ActivTrades
DXY topped on the 1-year Channel Down. Strong downside potentialThe U.S. Dollar index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the October 03 2023 High (13 months) and yesterday got the first red 1D candle after almost touching the pattern's top (Lower Highs trend-line) the day before. As the 1D RSI has dropped significantly after being overbought 2 weeks ago, this is a very similar top formation to the Highs of April 16 2024 and October 03 2023. As a result this is the earliest possible sell entry we can take to target long-term the new Lower Low of the Channel Down. The previous two Bearish Legs priced their Lows after roughly a -6.00% to -6.25% decline, just above the 1.1 Fibonacci extension. As a result, our Target is 99.800. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYShort
by TradingShot
NVIDIA joins the DowUS stock indices settled down a touch yesterday. The Dow ended unchanged. The mid-cap Russell 2000, which had soared on news of Trump’s win, pulled back a touch to close 0.4% lower. The S&P 500 added 0.7%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ gained 1.5%. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, has fallen sharply, and is now back to levels last seen towards the end of August, not long after the yen carry-trade unwound. The majors were mixed in early trade this morning, but then turned lower. There is little in the way of significant economic data releases or earnings reports to influence market direction. It’s worth noting that NVIDIA is entering the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Intel. This should give the index an extra jolt of volatility. Bear in mind that the Dow is a price-weighted index which means the higher the stock price, the greater the influence on the index. NVIDIA is trading at an all-time high just under $150. Intel trades around $26, having recently bounced off lows last seen in September 2010. NVIDIA will rank at the top of the bottom third of the index, while Intel was bottom. The inclusion of NVIDIA comes just ahead of its next earnings update on 20th November. Bond yields have softened, pulling back from highs last seen in July. Yesterday the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, as expected. Fed Chair Powell said he was ‘feeling good’ about the economy, although he did warn that the US was on an unsustainable path as far as fiscal policy is concerned. He also made it clear that he would complete his term as Chairman which runs until 2026. The President has no power to sack him. Markets are still predicting one more 25 basis point rate cut in 2024, but the probabilities are swinging about a bit. As usual, the Fed will remain data-dependent when it comes to rate decisions, although Powell maintains that current monetary policy remains restrictive. No doubt he’s thinking of all those real estate loans that will reset next year.
TRADENATION:US30
by TradeNation
US500 SMART MONEY PLAY Smart Money Play for US500 The setup suggests a potential for continuation in the primary uptrend but warns of possible near-term exhaustion. This strategy focuses on monitoring support levels during a pullback to position for a high-probability entry in line with the trend. 1. Identify Key Support Levels for Potential Pullback • Daily HVN Nodes: The daily HVN nodes at 5831 and 5710 represent strong support zones. If price retraces to these levels, they are likely to act as points of buying interest, especially if aligned with bullish indicators on lower timeframes. • 4-Hour Ichimoku Conversion Line: Currently, price is testing the 4-hour Ichimoku conversion line. A sustained hold at this level would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown could open the door for a deeper pullback. 2. Monitor ADX and DI for Trend Continuation or Exhaustion • Daily ADX: With an ADX of 22 and positive DI above negative DI, the daily trend is bullish but not overly strong, suggesting room for a potential continuation if support holds. • 4-Hour ADX: The 4-hour ADX at 50, with the ADX line well above both +DI and -DI, indicates possible trend exhaustion. This level, combined with bearish divergence on the RSI, suggests that a pullback or consolidation phase is likely before the trend resumes. 3. RSI and MFI as Momentum Indicators • Daily RSI: The daily RSI at 66 remains bullish but could retreat to 50-60 on a pullback while maintaining trend strength. A hold above 50 on the daily RSI would support re-entry at a favorable level. • 4-Hour MFI: With MFI rolling down from 80 to 74, it signals a reduction in buying pressure, consistent with an expected pullback. 4. Short-Term Signals on Lower Timeframes • 2-Hour MACD: The dark red bearish signal on the 2-hour MACD is an early warning for a short-term correction. If MACD starts to turn green after a dip, it could provide an entry signal. • 4-Hour RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence on the 4-hour RSI further supports a potential pullback. Waiting for a correction here before entering would minimize risk. Trade Ideas 1. Pullback Entry for Long Continuation: • Entry: Consider entering long near the HVN nodes at 5831 or 5710 if price stabilizes. Look for bullish signals on the 2-hour or 4-hour MACD and RSI to confirm that buyers are returning. • Stop-Loss: Place stops just below 5710 to account for volatility but avoid exposure if the pullback deepens. • Target: Aim for an initial move back towards the upper Bollinger Band on the daily (around 6000+) or even higher if the trend resumes strongly. 2. Alternative Short on Short-Term Weakness: • Entry: Consider a short position if price fails to hold the 4-hour Ichimoku conversion line, aiming for a target near the daily HVN nodes (5831 or 5710). • Stop-Loss: Tight stop just above the recent high at 5973, minimizing risk. • Target: Look for a retracement to the 5831 node, where support may resume. Summary of Smart Money Play 1. Trend Bias: Bullish overall but with caution for near-term exhaustion. 2. Setup: Wait for pullback confirmation to key support for a low-risk entry. 3. Entry Trigger: Use MACD and RSI on lower timeframes to confirm a resumption of buying pressure on pullbacks. 4. Risk Management: Stops below support for long positions and tight stops above recent highs for shorts, targeting the daily upper Bollinger Band on continuation or HVN nodes on retracement.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Shivsaransh1
GER40 Trade Log Pair: GER40 (DAX) Timeframe: 1 Hour Setup: Long within 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) Trade Parameters: - Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2 - Risk: 1% of account - Entry: Look for confirmation signals within the 1-hour FVG Stop-Loss and Take-Profit: - Stop-Loss: Positioned just below the entry trigger point within the FVG - Take-Profit: Target set at twice the stop-loss distance, achieving the 1:2 RRR Additional Notes: - Utilize strong confirmation signals to support this setup - Monitor market conditions that could impact GER40 volatility
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by Fondera-Trading
NAS100-Trump Rally Boosts Futures, All Eyes on Fed Rate DecisionMarket Holds Steady: Trump Rally Boosts Futures, All Eyes on Fed Rate Decision 1. Technically: The price has broken the previous ATH and is attempting to record new highs. Today, the market is expected to be volatile due to a 25 bps interest rate cut, which will impact market movement. As long as the price trades above 20790, the bullish trend is likely to continue toward 20960 and 21070. Alternatively, if the price closes a 1-hour candle below 20785, it may drop to 20710. A 4-hour candle close below 20710 would confirm a bearish trend, with a potential target of 20550. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 20790 Resistance Levels: 20960, 21070, 21150 Support Levels: 20710, 20550, 20420 Trend: - Bullish above 20840 and 20790 - Bearish Below 20780 and 20710 2. Futures Steady After Trump-Fueled Rally, Ahead of Fed Rate Decision Traders have largely priced in a 25-basis point rate cut, though they will closely monitor the central bank’s policy statement for signals on the future path of monetary easing. “Investors may be pausing to assess recent events and await the Fed’s scale of rate cuts,” one analyst noted. Investor expectations that Trump would lower corporate taxes and loosen regulations had in the previous session lifted all three major indexes to a record high. previous idea:
OANDA:NAS100USD
by SroshMayi
2
US30 Bearish Correction with Key Resistance at 43890Technical Analysis The price has risen approximately 210 pips, as mentioned yesterday. Today, as long as trades remain below 5989, a drop toward 5931 is expected, followed by consolidation between 5931 and 5989 until a breakout. Alternatively, if a 4-hour candle closes above 5989, it would signal bullish momentum with a potential move towards 6021. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 5989 Resistance Levels: 6002, 6021 Support Levels: 5950, 5931, 5891 Trend Outlook: Bearish Correction previous idea:
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi