Nasdaq 100 - Bull trap print begins circa April 30thThe Nasdaq 100 index is seriously oversold as market participants are gripped by fear. Understandable… however, markets do not crash in fear. Instead the opposite happens, counterintuitive as that sounds.
The Index shall continue display volatility until sellers are exhausted, which is around April 30th when the bottom shall print. So yeah, this week is probably going to suck what life remains of your account. However selling now is not in your best interest, I would argue the opposite. Let me explain why.
On the above daily chart the Nasdaq 100 death cross approaches, forecast to print on April 30th (the dotted lines). The death cross (On the Nasdaq 100 only) is defined as the 65 day Simple Moving average (blue line) crossing down the 240-day SMA with price action under the 240-day SMA.
Now the date has been changing a lot with recent volatility, to counter that behaviour the forecast for the cross uses the "Box Jenkins" forecast method (Ww is a data scientist and engineer specialising in probability theory and stochastic processes, will be adding the tool to my collection of scripts shortly!). Read more about Box Jenkins method here:
www.investopedia.com
Now I’m not normally a fan of moving averages, but on "looking left"… you’ll find me on the front row seat. I tell you all that to tell you this, look left. Look left at past death crosses using this method:
17% rally from death cross on March 15th, 2022
22% rally from death cross on December 18th, 2018
17% rally from death cross on February 16th, 2016
You get the picture. This behaviour continues to repeat with the previous ten death crosses until the print on October 12th, 2000, where the bull trap was followed by a market crash of 80%.
In terms of probability there is a 90% chance the death cross shall result in a positive rally. However, it is my guess many readers will place more weight on the 10% chance of a crash. That’s emotion, not reason! In fact if you scan over many of the published ideas on tradingview you'll notice the bearish slant is strong.
Is this time is different?
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There are no certainties, only probabilities. Price action could continue selling off following the cross to reach new lows. That said, this idea is to forecast a bull trap, not a continuation in the market uptrend. The probability favouring a rally is incredibly high. After that, not so good. Not good at all.
Price action forecast on rally
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Approximately 19.2 to 19.5k
Conclusions
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The market is oversold as emotions run high. History tells us It is unlikely the correction ramps up in momentum after the cross prints. However the cross can indicate the index may be about to enter a bear market should price action reject the 50-day SMA, which it is very likely. That’s for the next post!
Ww
Market indices
US30 Approaching Key Resistance–Potential Reversal Setup in Play🧠 Chart Overview
Asset: US30 (likely the Dow Jones Industrial Average)
Timeframe: Appears to be 1H or 2H
Indicators:
EMA 50 (Red): 40,119.5
EMA 200 (Blue): 39,897.3
Price at time of chart: Around 40,503
🔍 Key Technical Levels
🔴 Resistance Zone
Range: ~40,750 to 40,850
Price has tested this level multiple times and is currently hovering near it.
The resistance is holding, and no strong breakout has occurred.
🟦 Support / Focus Zone
Range: ~39,200 to 39,600
Marked as the “FOCUS POINT” – likely the expected target on a breakdown.
EMAs Insight:
Price is above both the 50 EMA and 200 EMA, suggesting short-term bullishness.
However, since it’s stalling at resistance, it could flip bearish on rejection.
🧭 Price Action Narrative
The chart suggests a potential fakeout above resistance, followed by a sharp rejection.
The path drawn shows a short-term dip, targeting the FOCUS POINT (support zone).
Rejection at resistance aligns with typical distribution behavior.
📌 Trade Idea (Bearish Bias)
Entry Idea: Short near or just above the resistance level (~40,800)
Target: 39,400 zone
Stop-Loss: Above the resistance level (~40,900+)
Risk/Reward: Favorable if price fails to break above resistance convincingly
📉 Bias: Bearish Reversal
Unless price breaks and closes above resistance with strong momentum, the chart favors a pullback scenario.
EUR/USD Analysis: Weekly & Daily Timeframes
In this analysis, I explored the EUR/USD pair, identifying significant patterns and potential trade opportunities. The weekly timeframe shows a strong support level, while the daily chart highlights short-term resistance. Combining these insights with the DXY index, we can better understand market dynamics.
Noise, S&P Scenario, Gold BubbleThank you to the tradingview community for engaging and supporting my content.
After another rough start to the week, we have a bit of a crossroads ahead for the S&P
1) We revisit the April 7 lows and poke lower with bear trap opportunities
2) We hold Monday April 21 lows and grind back up to gap fill and revisit 5400-5500 resistance
3) We go nowhere with a lot of intraday volatility and noise (between the April 7 low and the April 9 high)
The markets are on high alert
DXY
Gold
Bitcoin
US Bonds vs Treasuries (yields rising)
Trump is more vocal about threatening the FED or firing Powell and the concern is truly unprecedented
Trade War pause is still ongoing, China is being vocal as well to make sure countries don't simply line up to support the US. For all of this to calm down, US and China have to play nice. China is likely able to hold the line longer than the US in the near-term
Thanks for watching!!!
Global Supply Chains being Undone could be the cause of a (IV)I have been discussing the potential for a Super-Cycle wave (III) top in the US markets for the last couple years. To experience a wave (IV) of SUPERCYCLE PREPORTION, would be a consolidation of price action back to the 1929 stock market crash. The byproduct of this type of price action would be a decline of 50% or more (likely more) in the value of global stock markets. This type of asset price deflation would make anyone who watches the markets be inquisitive as to what would or even COULD cause such an event.
Would the dismantling of global supply chains, that have been in place since the early 1990’s, be the culprit?
I am starting to think the answer to that question is yes. This is not an indictment of the policy, but more an acknowledgement of the disruption and the possible aftermath.
The obvious concern is how do businesses plan? I would venture a guess business leaders will be challenged, and many may not survive. The cost equation becomes so skewed…how does one make money without passing the costs on to the consumer? That means higher inflation.
If this is the case, it’s possible digital assets become more of a safe haven which would be counter intuitive to hard asset value. This would mean that we will have endure a cycle of higher inflation, higher interest rates, and higher unemployment, coupled with lower economic growth. I cannot say this is how the forecasted price action is justified in the future. What I can say is the resulting price action will look very similar to the below.
S&P500 - The Correction Is Over Now!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting massive support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Over the past couple of days, we have been seeing a quite harsh stock market "crash" with an overall correction of about -20%. However, as we are speaking the S&P500 is already retesting a major confluence of support and if we see bullish confirmation, this drop might be over soon.
Levels to watch: $4.900
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Potential bearish reversal?GER40 is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 21,545.11
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 22,174.31
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 20,327.32
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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S&P500: Bottomed on an Inverse Head and Shoulders.The S&P500 index is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.973, MACD = -126.240, ADX = 31.007) but long term appears to have bottomed on an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. In fact, the Head made a low on the Double Bottom and the bearish outlook is currently due to the Right Shoulder formation. A crossing over the dashed LH trendline and even better the 4H MA200, would aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 6,280).
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NAS100 Buy Trade Analysis (4H Timeframe)Entered a buy position on NAS100 after price retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which also aligns perfectly with the ascending trendline support. This area has acted as a strong confluence zone, showing signs of a potential higher low (HL) formation on the 4H chart.
✅ Confluences supporting the trade:
Price bounced from the 0.618 Fib retracement.
Respecting the trendline support indicating bullish structure continuation.
Formation of Higher Low on both the 4H timeframe and also clearly visible on Daily and Weekly charts, indicating strong bullish momentum from a higher timeframe perspective.
RSI is near the oversold zone (~30), showing signs of a potential bullish reversal.
🎯 Targets:
First TP around the 18,863 zone (previous resistance area).
Final TP in the region of 19,161–19,250, aligning with the 200 EMA and psychological resistance levels.
🛡️ Stop Loss: Placed below the trendline and previous swing low for protection in case of invalidation.
UK100 Bulls Charging – Will They Breach 8,400 or Stall?Currently trading at 8,293, with
Support at: 8,165 🔽, 7,935 🔽
Resistance at: 8,400 🔼, 8,627 🔼, 8,741 🔼
Bias:
🔼 Bullish: As long as price stays above 8,165, bulls remain in control. A breakout and retest above 8,400 could extend the rally toward 8,627 and 8,741.
🔽 Bearish: A rejection from 8,400 or a break below 8,165 could trigger a move down toward 7,935.
No breakout, no trade.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
22 April important level trading zone #Nifty50 #option trading
99% working trading plan
👉Gap up open 24238 above & 15m hold after positive trade target 24508,
👉Gap up open 24008 below 15 m not break upside after nigetive trade target 24008, 23853
👉Gap down open 24008 above 15m hold after positive trade target 24238 , 24508
👉Gap down open 24008 below 15 m not break upside after nigetive trade target 23853, 23653
💫big gapdown open 23853 above hold 1st positive trade view
💫big Gapup opening 24508 below nigetive trade view
📌 Trade plan for education purpose I'm not responsible your trade
More education follow & support me
S&P500 – Bullish Setup Into Major Top!We expect a strong rally on the S&P 500 starting next week. Based on our timing models and wave structure, we believe a major top is likely to be formed on one of the following key dates:
📅 April 22nd, April 24th, or April 29th, 2025
🔹 Rally Targets:
• First Target: $5,630
• Second Target: $5,787
• Third Target: $6,000 (upper range projection)
This move is part of a final leg up before we anticipate a major reversal and strong downward move, potentially marking a significant turning point for the broader market.
🧠 We are currently positioned to capture this upside and will reassess risk closely as we approach the above-mentioned dates. Precision matters — and so does timing.
Nifty - moderation of +ve momentum seen on short period charts.Nifty closed with over 1% 21 VWMA was rising, Nifty respected SD+2 resistance today.
23298, 23395 resistance levels for tomorrow.
SD+1 or 23057 acted as major support today, any breach below this and sustaining lower will signal some weakness.
23730 major pivot, as long as this is help, uptrend is intact, and Nifty is in buy on dips.
24060, 23930, 23875, 23790, 23760 major support levels.
New AREA for better clarity!! As we can see after modifying our supply zone, it still seems to be in supply zone and a weekly candle needs to be closed above the given zone hence unless it sustains and gives a closing above given level it is risky to go long from here and make fresh positions so plan your trades accordingly and keep watching everyone