Get started

Market indices

Riding the Correction: Unlocking NIFTY’s Next Chapter!Dear Traders, I hope this message finds you well in your trading endeavors and personal pursuits. I am excited to share a compelling opportunity with you through a new NIFTY analysis that sheds light on the continuation of the market shift. The recent upward movement & the following correction in the market have unfolded as anticipated. Over the past two months, my analysis has consistently pointed to an expected correction due to market overvaluation and distinct completion patterns. Technical Analysis Overview: There are three potential scenarios for the ongoing trend, ranked based on their likelihood of occurring. Scenario I: The move initiated from 20 MAR’23 – 27 SEPT’24 (16,828.35 – 26277.35) has spanned over 80 weeks (18M) and indicates a significant completion of wave patterns, suggesting an imminent correction. See the visual representation of the trend lines and corresponding fib retracement levels here: The correlation between static supports can be observed around 23,893.70 and 21,181.45. This correction is expected to be visible within a 3-month timeframe. Potential support levels include S – I: 24,893 ~ 24,753 ~ 24,430 levels, S – II: 24,050 ~24,000 levels and S – III: 23,683 levels. *These values are not actual but just levels The correction might extend to deeper levels (22,664 & 21,550) as the market progresses. Time resistances are anticipated on 09th OCT, 17th OCT, and 30th OCT for all probable scenarios. --------------- Scenario II: The move from 26 OCT’23 – 27 SEPT’24 (18,837.85 – 26,277.35) has completed mid-way and is expected to continue after this correction, potentially reaching unprecedented levels. Find the visual representation of this move with trend lines & fib retracements here: The range of this move is limited to the monthly timeframe, indicating the completion of 1 year from the start of this sub-trend. Potential support levels include, S – I: 24,525 ~ 24,378 levels, S – II: 23,900 ~ 23,893.70 levels and S – III: 23,450 levels. --------------- Scenario III: The move from 04 JUN’24 – 27 SEPT’24 (21,121.45 – 26,277.35) has almost completed its half journey and is facing a correction before extending its uptrend by a few more waves. While this scenario has the lowest probability compared to the others, it is essential to consider its potential impact on the current trend. The pictorial representation can be seen here: Further details are not added as the market actions till now does not validate this probability. --------------- Other Influential Factors: Geo-political tensions and concerns regarding escalation have historically preceded corrections prior to the US presidential elections, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment. Tensions in the Middle East have also contributed to the market plunge, albeit not solely responsible for it. Additionally, the FED's likely rate cuts have been influenced by the upcoming US elections, and SEBI's regulatory actions aim to curb over-optimism and maintain market neutrality. Important Dates to Remember: Mark your calendars for OCT 9th (RBI interest rate decision @ 10AM) and OCT 10th (US inflation reports). --------------- Final Verdict: While the scenarios are meticulously laid out, the selection of the valid scenario remains a work in progress. We are eagerly awaiting further cues from the market and will provide updates as they unfold. However, one thing remains certain – the current trend has reversed (at least for the mentioned time frames). Therefore, adopting a bearish stance could prove to be profitable. --------------- Strategy: Considering the current market conditions, adopting a bearish stance seems prudent, especially levels around 24,450 ~ 24,000 are to be tested. Keep a close watch on the market and stay informed for potential opportunities. Disclaimer: Before concluding, I must underscore that the insights shared are based on my analysis. It is imperative for you to conduct your research and, if necessary, consult with a financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The dynamic nature of financial markets necessitates that your strategies align with your financial goals and risk tolerance. Fellow Traders, Countless hours of dedication and effort have gone into creating this valuable analytical resource. If you find it useful, I humbly ask for your support by boosting the idea and following me (updates will be made via this post, new post & through minds) . Your comments and thoughts on this idea are highly valued, and I am committed to engaging with each one personally. Thank you for investing your time in reading this article, Your readership is greatly appreciated. Wishing you profitable and joyful trading!!!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by WDG_Dinesh_Gengarajan
A Head & Shoulder Pattern on Nifty - Refer to my previous postIn Continuation to my last post on Nifty yesterday, i.e. 7th Nov 2024, we can clearly see the weakness in Nifty that is prevalent. A Head & Shoulders pattern is developing on the 4H chart. Clearly, the buyers aren't able to sustain momentum and this typically is a sign of overvaluation. While there may be sharp rallies to the upside, these will most likely get sold into. I have marked the levels on the chart. My Targets are mentioned in the earlier post. Short Target-1 on Swing basis - 23,550. Further this might also break and try for a retest and we could finally come down to 23,375 - 23,400 levels. Stay tuned and trade responsibly!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Sky_Tracer
How Yen Trends & Wage Growth Signal Opportunities in Nikkei 225 By Danish Lim Zhi Lin, Investment Analyst Current Performance of Nikkei 225 Index: Since our last trade idea ( ), the Nikkei 225 Index has rebounded from around 36,215 on 9 September to 39,480 at the close on 6 November, a gain of about 9%. Nevertheless, Japanese equities are yet to hit their July record highs, as a stronger Yen, political uncertainty, and potentially higher interest rates weighed on sentiment. Green Shoots in Japan: In our previous posting, we highlighted how the fundamentals behind Japanese equities remained unchanged despite a bout of volatility in August and September. We viewed the August drawdown in equities as temporary and believed it was tied to headwinds in the global economy rather than Japan itself. Rising real wages provided further optimism that a virtuous wage-price spiral could be achieved, potentially boosting consumer spending and sentiment. The latest data on wages supported our view, as Japanese workers’ base salaries saw the largest increase in over 3 decades, backing the BOJ’s view that the economy remains on the recovery track. Base pay advanced 2.6% YoY in September, up from 2.4% in August, the strongest increase in over 31 years. Scheduled cash earnings, a more stable measure of wage trends that excludes overtime pay, rose by 2.9% YoY, up from 2.8%. However, real wages fell for a 2nd straight month. Nevertheless, wage hike momentum remains steady despite pockets of weakness, this could fuel spending and lead to demand-led inflation. At the same time, corporate reforms and growing shareholder activism have also led to higher dividends, more share buybacks and stronger balance sheets. While the BOJ kept rates unchanged at its last policy meeting, there is still a possibility of another rate hike further down the road. US Elections and USD/JPY: On 6 November, the Nikkei 225 closed up by 2.61%, as the USD/JPY currency pair rose to 153.93 at 15:39 SGT, potentially on the verge of testing the key psychological level of 155. The negative correlation between the Nikkei 225 and USD/JPY has been well documented, with a weaker Yen benefitting many export-heavy Japanese firms such as Toyota and Fast Retailing, parent of Uniqlo. The rise in the Dollar was driven by an increase in yields across the Treasuries curve following the US election results; as traders positioned for Trump’s tariffs to drive up inflation and tax cuts to boost the budget deficit. In our view, we believe that the USD/JPY currency pair has more room to extend its rally for the remainder of the year. This could potentially provide further support for the Nikkei 225. Back in 2016, Trump’s election victory saw the Dollar Index surge over 3% in October, similar to what happened last month. However, the Dollar Index rallied another 3% in November 2016. We could see a similar picture playing out this year. We also expect the Fed to slow its pace of rate cuts, given the inflation-inducing policies Trump is expected to push. BOJ: To Hike or Not to Hike? Following Donald Trump’s election win, Japan’s chief currency official Atsushi Mimura said that “we’re seeing one-sided, sudden moves in the currency market” as the yen weakened towards the 155 level against the Dollar. Mimura added that the central bank will monitor markets with a “very high sense of urgency”. A weak Yen has the potential to boost imported inflation, putting pressure on the BOJ to raise rates. We expect to see verbal intervention from officials if Dollar strength remains in place. A breach of the 160 level could prompt actual currency intervention from the government. Japan’s Politics The situation is further complicated by the recent loss of a parliamentary majority by Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in last month’s lower house election. This outcome could force the LDP to form a new coalition, potentially leading to power-sharing agreements that introduce political uncertainty. Such developments could delay the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) anticipated rate hike, with opposition parties—some of which may become pivotal in coalition negotiations—advocating for a more dovish monetary stance. Notably, Yuichiro Tamaki, leader of the opposition Democratic Party for the People (DPP), has called for a six-month delay before any further rate hikes. As a result, the prospects of delayed BOJ tightening, combined with rising US yields driven by the policies of a potential Trump administration, have led to a widening of the interest rate differential between Japan and the US, now at its most pronounced since July. This dynamic has exerted upward pressure on the USD/JPY exchange rate. The US-Japan 10-year yield spread has increased from its September low, which aligns with the recent rise in the USD/JPY currency pair. () Nikkei 225 Outlook & Trading Opportunity: In our view, we see Trump's election victory as tactically positive for Japanese equities and the Nikkei 225. The underlying economic fundamentals remain robust, with real wages on a positive growth trajectory. The resurgence of healthy inflation coupled with rising wages could trigger a virtuous cycle of price and wage increases, which would provide a broad economic boost and, by extension, benefit the equity market. Trump's election victory could also alter the flow of capital into 2 of Asia's largest equity markets. Specifically, as investors adopt a more cautious stance towards potential tariffs on China, we anticipate that funds will increasingly flow into Japan. We expect the Nikkei 225 to benefit from Trump’s inflationary policies - which could keep US interest rates high, which could in turn strengthen the Dollar and weaken the Yen to the advantage of the Japanese equity market. However, upside could be limited given the risk of a currency intervention by Japanese authorities to stem Yen weakness. If China's expected stimulus measures fall short of market expectations, we anticipate that investors may rotate their positions out of China and into Japan, a pattern we already observed during the lead-up to China’s previous round of stimulus announcements.. Expressing Our View: We maintain our previous trade setup: Long Nikkei 225 Index Futures Based on a Fibonacci Extension drawn from the October 2023 to the July 2024 high, the daily chart shows the index rebounding from the 5 August low of 31,156; but has since consolidated within 37,700 – 39,500. If Dollar strength remains, we expect an appreciation in USD/JPY to send the Nikkei 225 Index upwards towards resistance at the 0.786% extension level around 40,500 within the month of November. If breached, we see the next resistance level at around 43,000 – 43,050. • Entry Level: 39,000 • Target Level: 40,500 (1-Month target) • Stop Loss Level: 38,500 (trailing stop preferred) • Profit at Target: 1500 x ¥500= ¥750,000 • Loss at Stop: 500 x ¥500= ¥250,500 • Reward: Risk Ratio: 3x Trade Nikkei 225 with Phillip Nova now
INDEX:NKYLong
by phillip_nova
ASX200 H4 | Bullish uptrend to extend furtherASX200 (AUS200) could fall towards an overlap support and potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 8,282.88 which is an overlap support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 8,230.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 8,374.57 which is a multi-swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:AUS200Long
by FXCM
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting on the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 104.41 1st Support: 103.87 1st Resistance: 105.26 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
DAX H4 | Falling to pullback supportDAX (GER30) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 19,351.22 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Stop loss is at 19,260.00 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Take profit is at 19,624.78 which is a swing-high resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX:GER30Long
by FXCM
1
Another S&P 500 channelSo here is another channel. The July peak made an extension of this channel, and the price didn't arrive to that extended part neither at the top nor at the bottom since then. Even if the price will arrive to that extended part at the top of the channel, it won't reach 6000 before the elections unless it makes a breakout in the upward direction thus making a new extension. Maybe it will reach 6000 after the elections. But I think that a more likely scenario is the price hitting the bottom of the channel first. Also I suggest that the price will go on a small correction now to 5650 support area, hit the trendline and make a new wave to 5800. And then we might see a good correction. If it won't go that way, perhaps this channel will be helpful in your analysis.
TVC:SPXShort
by Supergalactic
The Nasdaq index sets a new record driven by ‘Trump Trade’ Expectations for a ‘Trump Trade’ are rising, with Wall Street increasing its target for the S&P500; index next year. Notably, there is widespread optimism about Tesla's stock. Bank of America has raised its price target for Tesla from $265 to $350, now the highest on Wall Street, exceeding Morgan Stanley's target of $310. Additionally, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but the impact on the market was minimal since this was already factored into prices. USTEC broke its previous high again and soared to 21130. The index breached the ascending channel’s upper bound, sending a clear bullish signal. If USTEC sustains its uptrend and breaches the resistance at 21300, the index may gain upward momentum toward a new high of 21600. Conversely, if USTEC returns its gains, breaking the channel’s upper bound, the index may fall further to 20700.
NASDAQ:NDX
by inkicho_exness
11/04 Weekly SPX Market Analysis with seamless GEX levelsThe U.S. presidential election is on November 5, and this week we can expect increased volatility due to the uncertainty. For options traders, one thing is certain: volatility will likely rise leading up to the election, peak around the results, and then gradually subside as the “fireworks” end. It’s essential to consider this in every trading decision. While the current Implied Volatility (IVx) isn’t extremely high, the IV Rank (IVR) is quite strong at 41, and this is likely to remain due to the increasing uncertainty. Based on the blue OTM (Out of The Money) delta curves, the market is currently pricing in a strong downward movement for the week, aligning with the negative gamma zone and negative gamma profile. For a bullish shift, we would need a strong push above 5845 to enter positive gamma territory (HVL level is the battleneck). ⏩ The 5700 level is a key PUT support across multiple timeframes. If this level breaks, turbulence is expected, with increased downward movement likely to follow, first to 5650 and potentially down to 5600, where larger PUT gamma walls are located. ⏩ According to the 16-delta OTM curve, a close above the previous all-time high is less likely. If there’s a strong breakout to the upside, the positive gamma threshold stands at 5850, and above this, buyer pressure could extend up to 5925. ⏩ I consider the 5700-5845 range as a “chop zone,” where high volatility is expected this week. In this zone, bears and bulls will be in constant battle, and I do not expect a clear trend. I focused on Friday’s expiration in this analysis, as market outlooks remain highly uncertain ahead of the election. The strong PUT pricing skew is a natural phenomenon and is expected to increase, especially since we are in a negative gamma zone. For December expirations, PUT options cost nearly twice as much as CALL options, as shown by our oscillator for 12/20 expiry. There’s already ~6% IV backwardation between the 11/08 and 11/11 expirations, making this ideal for time spreads. However, caution is warranted—front-month PUT calendar and diagonal spreads can easily turn negative if front IV rises more than back IV. Remember! It’s not mandatory to trade during highly uncertain periods! Staying out of the market is also a position, and sitting in cash is actually the safest choice, especially in a volatile week like this. ⏩ You can check my previous week's analysis, every one was accurate, I hope this one will useful too. 10/28 SPX 10/21 SPX 10/14 SPX 10/28 QQQ 10/14 QQQ
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
dxyThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the U.S. dollar's value against a weighted basket of six major foreign currencies. The euro has the largest weight at 57.6%, followed by the Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). Created in 1973 after the Bretton Woods system's collapse, the DXY helps traders and investors track the dollar's overall strength in international markets. When the index rises, it means the dollar is strengthening against these currencies, while a falling DXY indicates dollar weakness. Many factors influence the DXY, including U.S. monetary policy, interest rates, economic indicators, and global market sentiment.
TVC:DXYLong
by HavalMamar
1
King Dollar is Back!DXY surged this week, bolstered by strong U.S. economic data. Durable Goods Orders for July spiked by 9.9%, far exceeding expectations, while Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.0%, indicating robust economic activity. The labor market remained stable with Initial Jobless Claims slightly below forecasts and Continuing Claims steady. On the downside, the housing market showed weakness, with Pending Home Sales dropping by 5.5%, reflecting challenges in that sector. Despite this, the overall data supports a bullish outlook for the dollar. As we approach the next trading week, key support levels like 101.00-101.50 and last week’s highs will be critical areas to watch for potential long entries.
TVC:DXYLong
by trader9224
NAS100 pullback to 20657MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. (buying SQQQ) Price above or near channels (period 100 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at overbought level VBSM positive Price at Fibonacci level In at $21145 Target is $100 or channel top bottom NO STOP LOSS. will hold to year end. adding to short position if price reaches 21,900
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by chancethepug