2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar (Part Two)📉💵 2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar: Part Two 🔄🔥
Part 1:
As we kick off the week on April 21st, we find gold hitting historic highs of $3,400 while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continues to slide — down 1.42% and firmly below the psychological 100 level. 📉 The breakdown at 99.3 confirms what we mapped out months ago.
Back in February, I highlighted the rejection at the 107.5 level and predicted that 2025 would mark The Year of the Normalized Dollar. That vision is unfolding exactly as drawn.
🔍 Technical Breakdown Recap
Rejection Zone: 107.5
Mid Support Breached: 100.95
Breakdown Level: 99.3
Next Target Range: 94.6–93.7 🧭
The visuals attached here are not new drawings — this is the same framework from my February 25th analysis, and it's playing out beautifully. 📊 The DXY is on a structural path toward normalization, aligning with macro policy shifts.
🗣️ Policy Catalyst
The dollar’s weakness isn’t just technical — it’s political and economic. Trump’s continued pressure on the Fed to slash interest rates, combined with tariff talk and geopolitical realignment, is creating a push toward a weaker but more "normalized" dollar.
From the Executive Order remarks on Jan 23, 2025:
“I'd like to see interest rates come down a lot. When oil comes down, prices come down — and then no inflation.”
These aren't just words — they're shaping market expectations and price action.
💬 Is this the soft landing the Fed is hoping for? Or the beginning of something bigger for DXY bears?
Drop your thoughts below and let’s keep the conversation rolling.
🎯 Charts attached for reference.
📢 Follow for more macro breakdowns & chart-focused insights.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Market indices
USDX-BUY straegy Daily chart Regression channelThe USDX shows clearly we should be cautious in selling USD, and this applies across the board. Based on channel and the extreme case we are in, we can bounced back ttowards 101.20-101.70 area in the near term.
Strategy BUY @ 97.80 - 98.20 and take proft in stages 1. @ 100.37 and 2. 101.57.
NAS100 - Will the stock market go bullish?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, one can look for the next Nasdaq long positions with a good risk-reward ratio.
Economists remain divided over whether President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are weakening the economy enough to trigger a recession. Some believe the possibility of a recession is significant, citing the rising costs of tariffs that are burdening both businesses and consumers. Others argue that the U.S. economy is strong enough to weather the trade war without falling into recession, pointing to resilient employment levels and consumer spending.
Forecasting experts also express differing views regarding the risk that Trump’s tariff campaign could tip the economy into a downturn. A Wall Street Journal survey conducted in April among 57 economists revealed that, on average, participants estimated a 45% chance of a recession occurring within the next 12 months—up from just 20% in the January survey.
The economic outlook took a notable downturn in February, when Trump began announcing tariffs against key U.S. trading partners. Many forecasters, who had expected a “soft landing” from post-pandemic inflation, are now preparing for a possible recession, as these tariffs and other economic barriers are forcing both households and businesses to tighten spending.
A separate survey of financial professionals working with businesses found that many companies have recently faced greater difficulty in collecting payments from clients, indicating growing financial strain among key economic players. The Credit Managers’ Index, overseen by the National Association of Credit Management and monitored by economist Chris Kuehl, still showed growth in March, though at a slower pace than before.
On the more optimistic side is Allen Sinai from Decision Economics, who assigns only a 20% probability to a recession within the next year. Although this is an increase from his January estimate of 10%, he still considers it an unlikely scenario.
Sinai’s primary reason for optimism is the strength of the labor market, which has remained stable since recovering from the massive layoffs during the COVID-19 lockdowns. March’s unemployment rate was 4.2%—close to historic lows—and not indicative of an economy in recession.
One major point of disagreement between recession pessimists and optimists lies in the interpretation of consumer sentiment data. Surveys have shown that people are increasingly worried about inflation, the job market, and their personal finances. If such concerns lead to more cautious consumer spending, it could weigh heavily on the overall economy.
The upcoming week is expected to begin quietly in terms of economic data releases, particularly due to global markets being closed on Monday in observance of Easter. However, midweek brings key reports that could significantly influence market expectations. On Wednesday, the preliminary S&P Global composite purchasing managers’ index for April and March new home sales figures are due. Thursday will feature a packed slate of indicators, including durable goods orders, jobless claims, existing home sales, and the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.
Alongside the data releases, investors will closely monitor remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Following Jerome Powell’s firm stance last week, upcoming speeches by Kashkari, Goolsbee, and Harker could shape or reinforce market expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy path.
Meanwhile, Apple is grappling with mounting challenges in the global marketplace. In China, the company has lost a significant portion of its market share, with sales declining by 9%, while Huawei’s sales have grown by 10%, and Xiaomi now holds the top spot with an 18.6% market share. These shifts reflect a notable pivot in Chinese consumer preferences toward domestic brands. Furthermore, U.S.-imposed tariffs on Chinese goods have put additional pressure on Apple’s profit margins in its home market, placing the company in a tough position.
S&P 500: Defensive Plays Dominate as Growth Sectors Falter- Key Insights: The S&P 500, currently priced at **5275.7**, reflects cautious
investor sentiment, with defensive sectors like **utilities**, **consumer
staples**, and **real estate** outperforming amid market volatility.
Elevated uncertainty is evident from higher VIX levels, driven by
geopolitical tensions, weak forward earnings guidance, and concerns about
growth sectors such as **technology** and **semiconductors**. Institutional
flows into safe-haven assets like **gold** signal limited risk appetite,
suggesting near-term weakness in equity markets.
- Price Targets: For the upcoming week, a cautious long position is suggested,
given support scenarios and stabilization prospects.
- **Target 1 (T1): $5380** (short-term resistance)
- **Target 2 (T2): $5450** (psychological level)
- **Stop Level 1 (S1): $5180**
- **Stop Level 2 (S2): $5135**
- Recent Performance: The S&P 500 displayed mixed performance, with defensive
sectors outperforming while growth sectors like technology lagged due to
pressures from macroeconomic factors. The broader equity landscape remains
volatile, as indicated by the elevated VIX readings and constrained trading
ranges in major indices such as the Russell 2000.
- Expert Analysis: Analysts recommend defensive positioning, favoring sectors
like **utilities** and real estate, as investors grapple with recessionary
risks and inflation concerns. Technology and semiconductor stocks,
particularly **Nvidia** and **AMD**, face headwinds from regulatory
restrictions and trade tensions with China. Federal Reserve statements
suggest potential rate cuts later in the year, but near-term hawkishness
persists, given inflationary pressures.
- News Impact: Key earnings reports from **Tesla**, **Google**, **Intel**, and
**Boeing** could drive sentiment shifts. Tesla's results may influence
market trends heavily, reinforcing key technical levels. Additionally,
renewed U.S.-China trade concerns over semiconductor tariffs add
uncertainty. A weakening U.S. dollar favors safe-haven assets such as
**gold**, while geopolitical risks and economic softness point to limited
upside for risk assets in the near term.
2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar📉💵 2025 – The Year of the Normalized Dollar! 🔥
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of weakness after breaching key support levels. With interest rate cuts on the horizon and a shift in economic policy, we may be entering a new phase for the dollar’s normalization.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch
🔹 Resistance: 107.5 (Immediate resistance)
🔹 Key Mid Support: 100.95 (Next major level)
🔹 Final Target: 94.8 (Major support & potential bottom)
📰 Fundamental Factors Driving the Move
💡 Trump’s Dollar Policy: Historically, Trump has favored a weaker dollar to boost exports. His recent remarks during the Executive Order signing on January 23, 2025, reinforce this stance, as he pushes for interest rate cuts and lower energy costs.
Remarks by President Trump at Executive Order Signing (January 23, 2025):
Q: Mr. President, you said earlier that you would like to see interest rates come down.
THE PRESIDENT: Yeah.
Q: How much would you like to see them come down?
THE PRESIDENT: A lot.
Q: And will you talk with Powell?
THE PRESIDENT: I’d like to see them come down a lot, and oil prices will come down. And when oil prices come down, everything is going to be cheaper for the American people — and actually for the world — but for the American people. So, I’d like to see oil prices come down.
Q: Are you worried that there’s too much going on at once if you’re trying to bring interest rates down and get the economy back going?
THE PRESIDENT: No, no. It just works that way. I mean, it just economically works that way. When the oil comes down, it’ll bring down prices, then you won’t have inflation, and then the interest rates will come down.
Q: You said that you would demand that the interest rates come down. Do you expect the Fed to listen to you?
THE PRESIDENT: Yeah.
📉 What’s Next for the Dollar?
🔸 If 100.95 breaks, we could see further downside, testing the 94.8 region.
🔸 A retest of resistance at 107.5 would be a key test before further declines.
🔸 The global macro environment (oil prices, inflation, and geopolitical shifts) will heavily influence the dollar’s trajectory.
🌍 Economic & Geopolitical Impact
Beyond monetary policy, Trump’s trade and labor policies are also playing a role in shaping the inflation outlook. His push for tariffs and tighter immigration policies has led to higher labor costs, causing short-term inflation. However, on the global stage, Trump's potential deal with Putin to resolve the Ukraine conflict could help ease inflation worldwide by stabilizing supply chains and reducing geopolitical risks.
With Trump pushing for rate cuts, the Fed under pressure, and DXY losing momentum, could we see a full-scale dollar correction in 2025? Let’s discuss! ⏬
📢 Follow for more macro insights & market analysis!
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
.DXY M30 ANALYSIS UPDATES
🕒 **DXY M30 Analysis**
📉 Price touched the **support zone** at **97.70 – 97.78** after a strong sell-off.
🔁 A **potential reversal** is forming at this level – key area to watch!
📈 If bulls take control, next targets:
- 🔹 **98.60** (interim resistance)
- 🔹 **99.62 – 99.70** (major resistance zone)
⚠️ Keep an eye on price action around 98.06 – confirmation needed before any long entries.
#DXY #M30 #ForexAnalysis #USD #ReversalZone 🚀📊
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What If Trump’s Tariffs Are Actually Bullish for SPX ?Hello Traders 🐺
In this idea, I want to take a closer look at SPX and break down why the new U.S. tariffs and Trump’s economic policies could either boost or damage the U.S. economy in the coming months. So make sure to stay with me until the very end.
🔍 Let’s start with the chart:
As you can see, SPX is currently holding above a weekly support level, marked by the orange ascending trendline. So far, so good. However, we’re also seeing a massive bearish divergence on the RSI — and in my opinion, this was one of the key reasons behind the recent Black Monday-style selloff.
⚠️ But here’s the deal: If SPX breaks below this orange trendline, the next strong support is around 3375 — aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci level and the monthly blue trendline inside our green support zone.
🤔 Should we be bearish on SPX and the U.S. economy?
That’s the big question… and it’s tricky to answer right now. Let’s break it down.
🔧 1. Tariffs and Trump: What’s really going on?
We’re currently in a pause phase of the ongoing tariff war — with countries negotiating to avoid escalation. But here’s the catch: markets hate uncertainty, and that’s why we saw panic selling recently.
Still, most people miss the bigger picture here.
The U.S. has long been a consumer-driven economy, importing heavily from other nations. Meanwhile, U.S. producers have struggled to compete — both domestically and internationally — due to low tariffs at home and high tariffs abroad.
So what do Trump’s new tariffs do?
✅ They level the playing field for U.S. companies at home
✅ They push other countries to lower their tariffs through negotiation
✅ They reduce dependency on foreign imports and support domestic production
In short, if combined with smart monetary policy, these moves could actually help revive U.S. manufacturing and strengthen the economy in the mid-to-long term.
📉 Final thoughts on SPX:
I personally don’t believe the bearish breakdown is coming — but as a trader, I focus on reality, not preference. Right now, we’re still holding above major support, and unless that breaks, the bullish scenario remains in play.
Let me know what you think about this macro setup in the comments.
And as always remember:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
Bears Dominate US30 – 36,800 In Sight?Price broke below the 39,070 support zone and is continuing lower. Bears remain firmly in control, with no signs of reversal yet. All eyes on the next key support at 36,800🔽.
🔼 Resistance: 39,070
🔽 Support: 36,800
As long as price remains under 39,070, bearish bias holds. A retest of broken support could act as a resistance for short opportunities. No clean bullish setup unless we reclaim that level.
📰 Sentiment: Risk-off tone continues with traders cautious around economic data and earnings season.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
NAS100 Testing Lows: Will a Bounce Offer a Sell Opportunity?NAS100 Technical & Fundamental Analysis 🧐
Overall Sentiment: The current market sentiment surrounding tech stocks and the broader indices like the NASDAQ 100 appears cautious, leaning bearish. Factors like persistent inflation concerns, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path 🏦, and ongoing geopolitical tensions can weigh heavily on growth-sensitive assets like tech stocks. Keep an eye on upcoming economic data releases (CPI, PPI, FOMC minutes) as they could significantly sway sentiment.
1. Daily Timeframe (D1): The Bigger Picture 🗺️
The NAS100 is exhibiting clear bearish characteristics on the daily chart, forming lower highs and lower lows.
Price is currently approaching or testing a significant area of previous daily equal lows. This is a critical zone ⚠️. Why? Because significant buy-side liquidity often rests below such lows (in the form of stop-loss orders from long positions) and sell-side orders may trigger if these levels break decisively.
A strong break and close below these daily lows could signal a continuation of the major downtrend, potentially accelerating selling pressure. Conversely, this area could act as temporary support, prompting the pullback you're anticipating.
2. 4-Hour Timeframe (H4): The Setup Structure 🏗️
My H4 chart clearly illustrates the recent sharp decline. Price is currently testing the support zone highlighted (around 17,800 - 18,000), which corresponds to the 0.00% Fibonacci level (17,973.8) drawn from the recent swing high (~19,117.4).
This support zone aligns with the concept of hitting the daily lows/liquidity area.
Anticipated Scenario:
I am expecting a reaction (a bounce/pullback) from this current zone. The projected path suggests a retracement towards the 50% Fibonacci level (Equilibrium) at approximately 18,547.3. This level often acts as significant resistance after a strong impulse move. The 61.8% level (~18,682.6) is also a key area to watch just above it.
Point of Interest (POI):
The zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fib levels (roughly 18,550 - 18,700) is your key decision area for a potential short entry. 👍
3. 15-Minute Timeframe (M15):
Entry Confirmation Trigger 🔫
The M15 timeframe will be crucial if price reaches your H4 POI (around the 50% Fib level).
What to Look For: During the potential pullback towards ~18,550, the M15 will likely show a temporary bullish structure (higher highs and higher lows).
Confirmation Signal:
For your short setup, you'd want to see this M15 bullish structure fail upon reaching the H4 resistance zone. Look for:
A break of market structure (BOS) to the downside on M15 (price making a lower low after failing to make a higher high).
Formation of clear M15 lower highs and lower lows.
Bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing candles, pin bars/shooting stars) rejecting the H4 resistance/Fib level.
Potential divergence on indicators like RSI or MACD (though price action is primary).
Synthesized Outlook & Strategy:
The NAS100 is undeniably in a bearish phase across multiple timeframes. The current test of daily lows / H4 support (~17,973) is a critical juncture. A bounce from here seems plausible, aligning with your expectation of a pullback.
The Strategy:
Patience: Wait for price to potentially rally towards the H4 50%-61.8% Fibonacci retracement zone (~18,547 - ~18,682). 🧘♀️
Confirmation:
Monitor the M15 timeframe closely as price approaches this zone. Look for a clear shift in market structure from bullish (pullback) to bearish (resumption of trend). 📉
Entry: If bearish confirmation occurs (M15 BOS), consider a short entry.
Targets:
Initial targets could be the recent lows (~17,973), followed by the Fibonacci extension levels shown on your chart (e.g., -50% at ~17,400.4) or the area below the daily equal lows. 🎯
Risk Management: Crucially, define your stop-loss level (e.g., above the swing high formed during the M15 structure break or above the 61.8%/78.6% Fib level) to manage risk effectively. 🛡️
Fundamental Check:
cross-reference this technical setup with any major news releases or shifts in market sentiment that could invalidate the pattern. 📰
NAS100USD: Bearish Continuation After FVG RebalanceGreetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, the institutional order flow remains bearish, continuing the momentum established during last week’s trading sessions. In alignment with this directional bias, we are strategically focused on identifying high-probability bearish opportunities.
KEY OBSERVATIONS:
Sustained Bearish Order Flow:
Institutional behavior continues to reflect a bearish narrative, suggesting that smart money remains committed to driving price lower.
Rebalancing a Fair Value Gap (FVG):
Price is currently rebalancing a notable fair value gap—an internal range inefficiency—providing the perfect confluence zone for bearish setups. This rebalancing typically precedes a draw on external liquidity.
Targeting External Range Liquidity:
As the market rebalances internal inefficiencies (FVGs, order blocks), it subsequently seeks external range liquidity such as sell stops, liquidity pools, and engineered lows. This is a fundamental principle of institutional price delivery.
TRADING PLAN:
Entry Consideration:
Monitor price action within the fair value gap for confirmation of bearish intent. This zone serves as an internal liquidity area, optimal for institutional order execution.
Profit Targets:
Focus on external liquidity resting below previous lows—particularly sell stops and liquidity pools. These levels represent the logical draw where institutions aim to finalize order pairing and take profit.
By following the institutional flow, we align ourselves with smart money practices, improving our precision and probability of success. Stay patient and disciplined—confirmation is key!
Its good to be back,
The_Architect
SPX500 H1 | Approaching a multi-swing-low supportSPX500 is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,206.22 which is a multi-swing-low support.
Stop loss is at 5,045.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,490.31 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Dollar has next 4 years (Be greedy when others are fearful)The world is changing fast, and the next four years may be strong for the U.S. dollar . This is not random— it's part of a cycle . Greed-fear cycle
Right now, humanity is entering a time where AI will take over most service-based jobs . Lawyers, designers, consultants—even coders—are slowly being replaced by machines. The entire service economy is becoming automated.
When that happens, only countries with real manufacturing will survive.
That’s why what President Trump said earlier about “bringing back manufacturing” makes full sense now.
When services become automated, tangible assets rise.
And the dollar may lead this shift.
DOLLARThe U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below the 100 mark in April 2025 due to a combination of trade tensions, shifting investor sentiment, and concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy. Key reasons include:
1. Trade War and Tariff Impact
President Donald Trump's imposition of aggressive tariffs (e.g., 145% on Chinese imports) and China’s retaliatory tariffs have sparked fears of a full-blown global trade war. This has unsettled financial markets, leading investors to reduce exposure to U.S. assets and the dollar.
The tariffs have disrupted trade flows, increased inflationary pressures, and raised concerns about slower economic growth in the U.S., which undermines the dollar’s appeal.
2. Declining Safe-Haven Demand
Traditionally, the dollar benefits as a safe-haven currency during global uncertainty. However, in 2025, investors are increasingly turning to gold, which hit record highs above $3,300and headed to 3400 as an alternative safe haven. This shift reflects doubts about the dollar’s reliability amid trade tensions and fiscal imbalances.
3. Concerns Over U.S. Economic Growth and Recession Risks
Rising fears of a U.S. recession, fueled by tariff-induced economic headwinds and slowing corporate earnings, have dampened confidence in the dollar.
The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance and signals of potential rate cuts later in 2025 have also contributed to weakening the dollar, as lower interest rates reduce the currency's yield advantage.
4. Political and Policy Uncertainty
Market unease has been heightened by President Trump’s public threats to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, raising concerns about the Fed’s independence and future monetary policy direction.
Political noise and uncertainty over trade negotiations, especially with China, have further pressured the dollar.
5. Technical and Market Sentiment Factors
Technically, the DXY has broken below key support levels, including the 200-day simple moving average (~104.6) and the psychologically important 100 level, signaling bearish momentum.
Summary Table of Factors Driving DXY Below 100
Factor Impact on DXY
Trade War Tariffs = Reduced dollar demand, increased volatility
Shift to Gold as Safe Haven= Dollar loses safe-haven status
U.S. Economic Slowdown Fears= Weaker growth outlook dampens dollar strength
Fed Policy Uncertainty = Rate cut expectations reduce dollar yield
Political Risks = Fed independence concerns add to uncertainty
Technical Breakdown = Breach of key supports fuels bearish momentum
Conclusion
The DXY’s fall below 100 reflects a complex mix of trade-related economic risks, diminished safe-haven demand, political uncertainty, and expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve. Unless these issues ease—such as through trade deal progress, clearer Fed guidance, or economic stabilization—the dollar is likely to remain under pressure in the near term.
US30 sellI believe US30 is heading lower for numerous reasons:
- It is really hard to deduce anything from price action on the 3 month and monthly timeframe.
- However, price on the weekly did hit a major liquidity level at 37,250 and rejected it with a lot of bullish orders.
- 40,750 is a liquidity level that has price has failed to close above in two consecutive weeks.
- Moreover, the two previous weeks, price has rejected 40,750 by forming a lower low the next week, which indicates that price is bearish.
- Last week, we saw a bearish candlestick closure on the weekly, which indicates that there is not enough momentum/buy orders for price to go higher.
- Hence, the weekly timeframe is bearish
- The daily timeframe confirms the weekly bias with a number of confluences.
- First of all, we see that price took a lot of buy orders at 37,250 and formed a double bottom.
- Price peaked at 40,750 and the level has been rejected twice with a double top.
-What confirms my bearish bias is that price is that we saw a candlestick closure below 39,560 (this is a region where we see a daily body closure).
- On the daily, price is hence bearish and the next liquidity points are at 38,250 and at 37,500.
- I believe that price is headed to those regions
- On the 4 hour timeframe, we see that price has already formed a textbook sell setup.
- Price collected sell orders at 40,000 on Thursday.
- Price then retraced from the 39,000 level and collected more sell orders at 39,400.
- My 4H take profit is at 38,650.
- Until then, my job is to monitor whether price will fail to reach that target and collect more sell orders at 39,400 or at 39,000.
USDX,DXYUSDX price is near the important support zone 98.23-97.75. If the price cannot break through the 97.75 level, it is expected that in the short term there is a chance that the price will rebound.
**Very Risky Trade
🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you.
>>GooD Luck 😊
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