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S&P 500: The Indicator to Watch Right NowWith US stocks bouncing on Trump’s backtracking over tariffs — just weeks after a 20% correction — it’s fair to say caution is the name of the game. Even though the headline risk has eased slightly, markets are still navigating through a fog of geopolitical noise and economic uncertainty. In moments like these, where the fundamental picture feels muddy at best, objective technical analysis can offer clarity — not crystal-ball predictions, but structure and focus. The Traditional Technical Backdrop Traditional technical analysis isn’t about magic lines on a chart — it’s about mapping out price behaviour with tools that help us stay grounded. Structural levels, trendlines, and a couple of moving averages might seem basic, but they’ve stood the test of time because they do something incredibly useful: they make sense of chaos. In the case of the S&P 500, several key structural levels should anchor any serious analysis. We’ve got the pre-sell-off highs from February, the April lows, and two interim levels — broken support levels that flipped to resistance during retracement rallies between February and April. These levels now act like milestones in the market’s memory. Drawing a downward-sloping trendline through the swing highs during the correction gives us a good sense of the broader downtrend. More recently, we’ve also started to see a modest uptrend emerge from the April lows. That creates something of a wedge formation — a narrowing range that’s coiling tighter as buyers and sellers battle it out. Simple moving averages like the 50-day and 200-day are useful additions here. While they’re lagging by nature, they give us immediate context for where price sits in relation to recent momentum and long-term sentiment. US500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results The Indicator to Watch There’s a good argument to be made that the most important indicator to watch right now, with the S&P 500 trying to claw back ground, isn’t a moving average or RSI — it’s Anchored VWAP. Anchored Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is one of the most effective ways to cut through the noise and see who’s really in control — buyers or sellers. It tells you the average price that traders have paid for the index, weighted by volume, since a specific event or turning point. And unlike regular VWAP that resets daily, Anchored VWAP lets us choose a significant date and track how price interacts with that “anchor.” If we anchor the VWAP to the February highs, we’re essentially tracking how the market has performed relative to that peak. This anchored VWAP line becomes a kind of gravity — it reflects the average cost basis of those who bought just before the sell-off. If price remains below it, it tells us those buyers are still underwater, and therefore less likely to add risk. Sellers, in that case, still hold the advantage. On the flip side, if we anchor VWAP to the April lows, we get the average cost basis of the recent bounce. This line reflects where more optimistic, bottom-fishing buyers stepped in. If price holds above this level, it suggests those participants remain in profit — and potentially willing to buy dips. Right now, the S&P 500 is stuck in a battle between these two anchored VWAP levels. One tracks the pain, the other tracks the hope. It’s a VWAP funnel, and it won’t last forever. Eventually, price will break above one and leave the other behind — and when it does, we’ll have an objective answer as to which side is winning. Will it be the late bears holding on from February’s highs, or the early bulls from the April lows? The answer is coming. Keep your eyes on the anchored VWAPs — they’re telling the real story. US500 Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by Capitalcom
NAS100USD: Bullish Scalping Opportunity Within Fair Value GapGreetings Traders, On NAS100USD, the current market structure is clearly bullish. To capitalize on this momentum, we aim to align our intraday opportunities with the prevailing trend. At present, price has retraced into a fair value gap (FVG), presenting a potential high-probability zone for a bullish reaction. Upon receiving confirmation, this setup offers a favorable opportunity to enter long positions, with the objective of targeting the liquidity pool situated above. Key Focus: Structure: Bullish Entry Zone: Fair Value Gap (retracement) Target: Overhead liquidity pool As always, ensure confirmation before executing any trades, and remain disciplined in managing your risk. Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
2
Nifty levels - Apr 28, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve. The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior. We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors. * If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it. Wishing you success in your trading activities!
NSE:NIFTY
by sacxe
Spy putsHello friends. We just bought some 5/16 $550 SPY puts. It's looking like the low for this crash is not anywhere near being in. Retail is still in a buying frenzy because they expect that this will be another V shaped recovery like we're used to. Meanwhile the smart money is selling everything they have and expecting more blood. The fed hasn't come in to save this market, and they aren't going to be able to. Their hands will be tied by artifical inflation caused by tariffs and there won't be an intervention until it's already too late.
SP:SPXShort
by bowtrix
$SPX Bull/Bear Line in the Sand – Fireworks Ahead?The S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) is sitting just below a clear resistance level—a true bull/bear line in the sand. On the one hand, bulls are eyeing a potential breakout into the weekend that could ignite a short squeeze or continuation rally. 🎆 On the other, Deutsche Bank, the last of the major bulls, has thrown in the towel—cutting their year-end target from 7,000 to 6,150 amid economic concerns. This is where things get interesting. If we break above this resistance with volume, expect upside momentum. If not… this could be the start of a deeper rollover. 👉 Watch that overhead line closely. It's the fuse. 💣 🟢 Breakout = bull party 🔴 Rejection = potential for bearish reversal
SP:SPXShort
by SmartSignalss
1
US30: Potential Bullish BreakoutUS30: Potential Bullish Breakout US30 hit a low of 36,500 on April 7th. Since then, the price has been climbing steadily, forming a triangle pattern. While a breakout could happen in either direction, I’m focusing on the bullish potential. If US30 breaks above the triangle pattern, a strong upward wave could follow, possibly pushing the price toward 44,000. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US30Long
by KlejdiCuni
3
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months. Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move: Monthly Close Above 100.160: A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities. Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y): This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets. COT Report Insights: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves. Seasonal Patterns: Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape. Targets: Initial Target: 106.120 Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
TVC:DXYLong
by Wiiso
DXY Trading Opportunity: Bullish Setup & Precise SignalsOn Thursday, the DXY declined, trading below 99.50 with a drop of over 0.50%, mainly influenced by the latest remarks of U.S. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin regarding global tariff negotiations. Meanwhile, the U.S. durable goods orders data showed a divided picture, reigniting market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. On the hourly chart, the DXY exhibits obvious technical pressure characteristics. The price has gradually retreated from the previous high near the 100 level and is currently consolidating around 99.30. In the MACD indicator, the DIFF line and the DEA line are in a deadlock above the zero axis, indicating a weakening of short-term momentum. The RSI indicator stands at 43.2687, in the neutral zone; 99.1000 has become an important support level in the near term. From a daily chart perspective, the DXY shows an obvious downward trend. Since February 2025, the price has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, and has recently broken below the psychological threshold of 100.00. The MACD indicator shows that the bearish momentum is dominant, with DIFF at -1.3961 and DEA at -1.3223 both operating below the zero axis. The RSI indicator is at 35.1769, on the verge of the oversold area, suggesting a possible technical rebound. 97.9229 is the recent low and constitutes an important support level. If this level is broken, the DXY may accelerate its downward movement. DXY buy@99.100 - 99.200 tp:99.800 - 100.300 Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
TVC:DXYLong
by CyberFinMagus
1
Possible reversal of this bullish wave...(LOG)Orange circles highlight repeated price rejection and the formed doji that suggests a slowdown in a bullish wave and potential reversal. The confluence of the descending trendline and horizontal supply/resistance zone creates a high-probability reversal or breakout from this triangle. If the price rejects again from the current supply zone and triangle, short setup toward the Fibonacci retracements or demand zones (18300 and below). If the price breaks above the descending trendline, bullish continuation will likely target 20,000+ (Swing H). Trend remains down. Entry 19300 TP 18300 below Target 14k.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by matejmn
2
NSDQ100 INTRADAY trend change supported at 18950 Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 19590 Resistance Level 2: 20070 Resistance Level 3: 20344 Support Level 1: 18460 Support Level 2: 17820 Support Level 3: 17330 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:USTEC
by TradeNation