Market indices
Would be interesting to see the market bottom during summerIt would be interesting to see the market bottom at the cross section of the 200 week moving average with the 2022 highs some time by June/July. Markets aren't cheap now however they are above the 200 week.
My framework:
Markets above 200dma go 100% long with base equity allocation (decrease to 90% if RSI is overheated)
Markets below 200dma but above 200 week go 70% long with defensive bias
Markets below 200 week go 25% long with defensive bias, change to high risk with 70% allocation once cross above 200 week.
Saves me from the large drawdowns and shaves off some percentage point off performance however having buying power when all hell breaks loose can result in decade+ alpha opportunities.
The only sector currently above its 200dma is the equal weight utilities which I like in this environments all other sectors are below the 200dma. In such an environment markets are likely to be biased to the downside.
$NIFTY in bullish momentum. More upside-expectedDuring the last few days, we have been discussing the weakness in the US Dollar and the TVC:DXY index and what it means for the commodities like Gold ( AMEX:GLD ) and Oil ( TVC:USOIL ). But we never discussed the positive effect it has on the emerging markets like $NIFTY. The index NSE:NIFTY which consists of top 50 stocks based on market cap in India is having a positive momentum divergence after touching the lower bound of the upward sloping Fib retracement levels. Here in this blog space on 17th March we posted that NSE:NIFTY looks oversold and we might be ready for a bounce. We favored going long NSE:NIFTY at 22000. Since then, the RSI bottomed and we up 8% form the lows of 22032.
If we still follow the Fib levels from the last blog, the charts are telling us that we might be headed to 25000 before having any meaning full pullback. The index internals look healthy with RSI hovering around 50 and not in overbought territory. And the tailwind to all this is still the US Dollar story. Here we are targeting 95 in the TVC:DXY on a short-term basis. This might push NSE:NIFTY to 25000 and beyond.
Verdict : NSE:NIFTY rally continues to 25000; TVC:DXY to 95.
$NIFTY in bullish momentum. More upside-expectedDuring the last few days, we have been discussing the weakness in the US Dollar and the TVC:DXY index and what it means for the commodities like Gold ( AMEX:GLD ) and Oil ( TVC:USOIL ). But we never discussed the positive effect it has on the emerging markets like $NIFTY. The index NSE:NIFTY which consists of top 50 stocks based on market cap in India is having a positive momentum divergence after touching the lower bound of the upward sloping Fib retracement levels. Here in this blog space on 17th March we posted that NSE:NIFTY looks oversold and we might be ready for a bounce. We favored going long NSE:NIFTY at 22000. Since then, the RSI bottomed and we up 8% form the lows of 22032.
If we still follow the Fib levels from the last blog, the charts are telling us that we might be headed to 25000 before having any meaning full pullback. The index internals look healthy with RSI hovering around 50 and not in overbought territory. And the tailwind to all this is still the US Dollar story. Here we are targeting 95 in the TVC:DXY on a short-term basis. This might push NSE:NIFTY to 25000 and beyond.
Verdict : NSE:NIFTY rally continues to 25000; TVC:DXY to 95.
Bearish opportunity if support is broken📉 US100 – Watching for a possible bearish breakout
After reaching the key level of 19,151.5, the US100 price has shown weakness by breaking out of an ascending wedge. It is currently testing a dynamic support zone at 18,695.4, just before a liquidity zone marked in red.
A break below this zone could trigger a move towards 18,434.1, and in extension towards 18,185.8, if bearish pressure continues.
This structure suggests that momentum is shifting in favor of the bears, especially if the blue support fails to sustain the price.
đź§ Action plan: Monitor a breakout with volume and a bearish structure to seek short entries with appropriate risk management.
NEW WORLD ORDER BLUEPRINT : THE GRAND DESIGN I have said everything in prior posts
but this analysis dates to ray dalios hegemony video
looks like this is the time
so dxy will rebound in value good news will spur the economic tank willthen crash trump vs powell you cant rig the economy couple this with the bad after taste of tariffs negative sentiment from the world no one coming to sretch their hand out then boom
ni hao wo jiao Lao Ban Muji, wo ai bin qili
ai, shuo, follow
zaijian
Dow JonesDow Jones
MTF Analysis
Dow JonesYearly Demand 36,970.0
Dow Jones 6 Month Demand DMIP 35,008.0
Dow Jones Qtrly Demand 37,786.0
Dow JonesMonthly Demand BUFL 38,581.0
Dow JonesWeekly Demand Resistance now support 36,970.0
Dow Jones Daily DMIP 37,390.0
ENTRY -1 Long 37,390.0
SL 37,128.0
RISK 262.0
Target as per Entry 45,307.0
RR 30.2
SENSEX FOR LONGVery Important Market Fractal Alert – Be Prepared for All Scenarios
Trust me, I don’t like this setup either…
But if this historical fractal plays out again.
For momentum detection, the indicator implements a Rate of Change (RoC) calculation to measure price momentum over a specified period. It further enhances analysis by incorporating RSI readings for overbought/oversold conditions, volatility measurements through ATR, and optional volume confirmation. When these elements align, the indicator generates trading signals based on the selected sensitivity mode (Conservative, Balanced, or Aggressive).
Key Features & Signals
1. Multi-Period Trend Identification
The indicator combines multiple EMAs of different lengths to provide comprehensive trend analysis within the same timeframe, displaying the information through color-coded visual elements on the chart.
4 863
The Advanced Momentum Scanner is a sophisticated technical indicator designed to identify market momentum and trend direction using multiple exponential moving averages (EMAs), momentum metrics, and adaptive visualization techniques. It is particularly valuable for those looking to identify trading and investing opportunities based on trend changes and momentum shifts across any market and timeframe.
🟢 Technical Foundation
The Advanced Momentum Scanner utilizes a multi-layered approach with four different EMA periods to identify market momentum and trend direction:
Ultra-Fast EMA for quick trend changes detection (default: 5)
Fast EMA for short-term trend analysis (default: 10)
Mid EMA for intermediate confirmation (default: 30)
Slow EMA for long-term trend identification (default: 100)
For momentum detection, the indicator implements a Rate of Change (RoC) calculation to measure price momentum over a specified period. It further enhances analysis by incorporating RSI readings for overbought/oversold conditions, volatility measurements through ATR, and optional volume confirmation. When these elements align, the indicator generates trading signals based on the selected sensitivity mode (Conservative, Balanced, or Aggressive).
🟢 Key Features & Signals
1. Multi-Period Trend Identification
The indicator combines multiple EMAs of different lengths to provide comprehensive trend analysis within the same timeframe, displaying the information through color-coded visual elements on the chart.
snapshot
When an uptrend is detected, chart elements are colored with the bullish theme color (default: green/teal).
Similarly, when a downtrend is detected, chart elements are colored with the bearish theme color (default: red).
During neutral or indecisive periods, chart elements are colored with a neutral gray color, providing clear visual distinction between trending and non-trending market conditions.
This visualization provides immediate insights into underlying trend direction without requiring separate indicators, helping traders and investors quickly identify the market's current state.
2. Trend Strength Information Panel
The trend panel operates in three different sensitivity modes (Conservative, Aggressive, and Balanced), each affecting how the indicator processes and displays market information.
The Conservative mode prioritizes trend sustainability over frequency, showing only strong trend movements with high probability.
The Aggressive mode detects early trend changes, providing more frequent signals but potentially more false positives.
The Balanced mode offers a middle ground with moderate signal frequency and reliability.
snapshot
SENSEX FOR 21 APR#Execution only after break and close above or below from resistance or support 15-minute candle.
#Stop Loss above or below from resistance or support 15-minute candle.
(S/R Levels Will be Flipped in The Situation of Gap up OR Gap down Open, Support Will Turn in Resistance and Resistance Will Turn in Support)
(This Analysis and idea is based only on support and resistance mechanism, Buy after resistance break and close above sell after support break and close below, Closing below resistance after trade will be stop loss likewise closing above support will be a stop loss after trade)
NOTE- Only for Education Purpose. This is not any kind of Trading advice I am giving by this analysis.
NOTE : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
NIFTY FIN SERVICE FOR 21 APR#Execution only after break and close above or below from resistance or support 15-minute candle.
#Stop Loss above or below from resistance or support 15-minute candle.
(S/R Levels Will be Flipped in The Situation of Gap up OR Gap down Open, Support Will Turn in Resistance and Resistance Will Turn in Support)
(This Analysis and idea is based only on support and resistance mechanism, Buy after resistance break and close above sell after support break and close below, Closing below resistance after trade will be stop loss likewise closing above support will be a stop loss after trade)
NOTE- Only for Education Purpose. This is not any kind of Trading advice I am giving by this analysis.
NOTE : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
BANKNIFTY FOR 21 APR#Execution only after break and close above or below from resistance or support 15-minute candle.
#Stop Loss above or below from resistance or support 15-minute candle.
(S/R Levels Will be Flipped in The Situation of Gap up OR Gap down Open, Support Will Turn in Resistance and Resistance Will Turn in Support)
(This Analysis and idea is based only on support and resistance mechanism, Buy after resistance break and close above sell after support break and close below, Closing below resistance after trade will be stop loss likewise closing above support will be a stop loss after trade)
NOTE- Only for Education Purpose. This is not any kind of Trading advice I am giving by this analysis.
NOTE : This is my pre market analysis and my trading journal. Not a suggestion to buy or sell.
This is the Gold Silver Ratio, FIB Time ZonesThis is my comparison tracking the divergence in the gold and silver prices since 2006 prior to the Global Financial Crisis.
I noticed that both prices in USD and tracking in the same upward channel. I have inserted two FIB time zones that seem to be playing out with a move about to play out here on the 20th April 2025.
How Gann’s Square of 9 Reveals Hidden Time Cycles in the US500In today’s fast-moving markets, most traders are stuck reacting, chasing signals, hunting for breakouts, and trying to make sense of noise. But what if you could predict where the market might turn, not just based on price, but on time itself?
That’s exactly what W.D. Gann mastered. His tools, like the Square of 9, weren’t just about charts, they were about timing the rhythm of the market. Today, I’ll walk you through a real-world example on the US500, using Gann’s time technique on the 5-minute chart. This isn't theory. This is how you can bring Gann’s legacy to life in real-time trading.
Step 1: Don’t Start on the 5-Minute—Zoom Out First
The first thing to understand is that not every swing high or low is meaningful. To apply Gann’s time analysis correctly, you must choose swing points that matter—and that means looking at the higher timeframes.
Before diving into the 5-minute chart, I always analyze the 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour charts. If a swing high or low on the 5-minute lines up with a key support or resistance zone from those larger timeframes, that’s your signal. These are levels where institutions and big players act, and that gives your analysis a real edge.
So, once I identified a swing high and low on the 5-minute chart that aligned perfectly with a 1-hour resistance zone and a 4-hour support level, I knew I had something solid.
Step 2: Counting Bars – The Foundation of Time Analysis
From the chosen swing low to the swing high, the market took 9 bars to complete the move. That number isn’t just a count—it becomes our anchor in time.
Using my custom-built Gann Square of 9 spreadsheet, I plugged in this value. The spreadsheet then calculated future bar counts where the 45-degree time angle repeats, based on Gann’s time rotation principle.
The output gave us these key numbers: 16, 25, 36, 49, 64, 81
These are not arbitrary. They are time-based vibration points derived from Gann’s spiral math—each one representing a future window where the market is likely to shift.
Step 3: Letting Time Lead the Trade
Let’s walk through what happened at each of these time windows:
Bar 16: The market attempted to push higher—a classic manipulation move. Then came a sharp reversal. The 45-degree vibration was in effect. This was a textbook Gann-style turning point.
Bar 25: No sharp reversal, but momentum slowed and price started consolidating. This was a structural pause—just as important as a reversal for those watching intraday shifts.
Bar 36: This one was dramatic. The market had been falling, but as we approached the 36th bar, rejection candles started appearing. Selling pressure dried up, and buyers stepped in. Soon after, a bullish breakout followed. The time vibration had called it again.
Bar 49: After a strong bullish run, the price stalled and reversed almost precisely at this time point. This marked a shift back to bearish sentiment.
Bar 64: The downtrend lost steam. Price began forming a new swing low, and as we passed the 64-bar mark, bullish momentum returned. Another clean reversal.
Bar 81: The final vibration in this sequence. The bullish move slowed, candles shrunk, and volume faded. Then came a breakdown. A bearish turn right on time.
What This Means for You as a Trader
This sequence—from bar 16 to 81—is a masterclass in how time drives the market. It shows that price action is not random. It's governed by hidden cycles that most traders overlook. But when you apply Gann’s methods with precision, the market reveals its rhythm.
All we did was:
Identify a meaningful swing (validated by higher timeframes)
Count the bars between the swing low and high
Let the Square of 9 calculate the future time vibrations
From there, we simply watched and waited. And the market played out almost to the bar.
Conclusion: From Reactive to Predictive Trading
The real power of Gann’s techniques lies not in magic, but in mathematical and astrological precision. When you understand how time and price interact, you stop reacting—you start forecasting.
You stop chasing trades—you start anticipating reversals.
Gann’s Square of 9 isn’t just an old-school tool. With the right application, it becomes a modern forecasting machine. And with the help of tools like my custom spreadsheet, the entire process becomes simple, streamlined, and incredibly effective.
So the next time you’re about to take a trade, ask yourself:
Are you following price? Or are you following time?
Because when time is on your side, the market moves in your direction—not the other way around.
COMPOSITE Is About To End The DowntrendIDX:COMPOSITE
As the picture says, currently COMPOSITE aka IHSG is forming broadening wedge pattern. This pattern indicates bullish potential, but hasn't been confirmed since the current level is still below 6500.
Most stocks will start going up after the confirmation of this pattern, so use this moment to buy on weakness on your favorite stocks.
Our picks: BBNI BBCA ITMG GOTO
SPX path forwardThe SPX appears to be transitioning out of Wave 4 and initiating Wave 5 of the current Elliott Wave cycle. This breakout from Wave 4 suggests the final leg of the broader impulsive structure is underway, typically characterized by renewed momentum and trader interest.
At this stage, we can expect a pullback or bounce near the previous Wave 3 low, which often acts as a key support level during the early stages of Wave 5 development. Should this level hold, price action is likely to resume downward, completing Wave 5 within the projected target zone.
Downside targets for Wave 5 completion are currently in the 4,700 to 4,600 range, aligning with a typical Fibonacci extension (0.618–1.0 of Wave 1 through Wave 3) and previous structure zones that may offer confluence.