DXY Market Outlook: Eyes on 99.392Hello Traders,
DXY found buyers at the 97.921 level we tracked last week and managed to close daily candles above this level. We can now refer to this area as a rejection block (D + RB). This week, the block was retested and encountered rejection from buyers.
With this buyer reaction, our target is the peak level of the consolidation that brought the price here (99.392).
There's a minor level to watch along the way: 98.586. However, considering the key level where the price reacted and the weekly chart showing no major obstacles ahead, we believe that targeting the peak of the consolidation that initiated the last decline (99.392) is the more suitable approach.
Taking news data into account—and more importantly, geopolitical factors and unexpected developments—we still acknowledge the possibility of the price sweeping the low again. However, we don’t expect this to invalidate the overall scenario. With news catalysts, we anticipate the price reaching the target within the week.
Until the next update, wish you many pips!
Market indices
NAS100 | Intraday buy setupTimeframe: M15
🔸 Bias: Short-term bullish (scalp to premium zone)
Price just tapped into a fresh M15 demand zone following a strong impulsive leg and is now showing early signs of a reaction (entry model confirmation ✅). Liquidity has been taken beneath the short-term low, and I'm now looking for a short-term push back into the premium supply area near 21,800.
🧩 Confluences:
Bullish BOS + Demand zone reaction
Liquidity sweep below Asian session low
Entry model + candle shift on M15
Potential reversal from discount → premium
🎯 Target: 21,800 zone
❌ Invalidation: Clean break & hold below 21,675
⏳ Type: Intraday scalp / short-term swing
“Risk managed. Liquidity collected. Now we let price tell the rest of the story.” 🚀
What to Expect From FOMC and the Market’s Reaction to It? With tariffs and Middle East escalation in focus, central banks have somewhat fallen to the backstage recently. But today’s FOMC meeting might change that. The federal funds rate upper band is most likely to stay at 4.50% with a unanimous vote. However, today’s focus will not be on the interest rate itself but rather on the dot plot and updated economic forecasts.
Inflation continues to move closer to the 2% target, but that trend may have shifted with the latest CPI report. Although recent inflation data came in better than expected, inflation appears to be flattening above 2% and could start rising again in the near future. Last week’s CPI and Core CPI reports showed early signs of this, and the upcoming PCE and Core PCE data could confirm those signals. Why is inflation still low despite tariffs? The main reason is frontloading.
U.S. consumers and firms frontloaded many goods, especially durable good, ahead of the tariff hikes. Now, with tariffs in effect, consumption has slowed, and many firms are holding elevated inventory levels. In this environment, firms are reluctant to raise prices due to lower demand and high stockpiles. This suppressive effect is expected to gradually fade, allowing prices to rise. For that reason, the Fed is unlikely to begin rate cuts prematurely. Inflation could make a peak in the last quarter of 2025 or the first quarter of 2026 in our view. But the possible oil price spike due to Iran – Israel war could change this projection.
At the March FOMC meeting when the economic projections were last updated, some of the tariff impacts were already incorporated. Inflation and unemployment were revised higher, while GDP was revised lower. Despite this, the Fed maintained its forecast of two rate cuts for both 2025 and 2026. However, since March, newly announced tariffs have been more extensive than expected. Some board members including Jerome Powell stated that. As a result, a similar adjustment to the forecasts may occur today: higher inflation and unemployment, lower GDP. Accordingly, the dot plot could show only one rate cut for 2025 and three for 2026. Why would the Fed cut more in 2026? Because the tariff impact is expected to be a one-time shock, not a structural shift. Once the effects wear off, the Fed could ease more. But there are some risks to that. According to some new research and New York FED President Williams, not only long term inflation expectations needs to be anchored, rather the “whole curve” So during a possible inflation peak came with tariff effects, FED could not cut repeatedly and should closely watch the effects on short-term inflation expectations.
The main focus of today’s FOMC will be on the economic forecasts and the dot plot. If the new projections reflect only one cut for 2025, this would be bullish for the dollar. If the 2026 projection also shows only two cuts, that would be even more bullish. On the other hand, if the current forecast of two cuts in both 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged, the reaction could be slightly dovish for the dollar.
During the post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell is likely to focus on uncertainties related to tariffs and energy prices, especially given the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Powell may downplay the hawkish tone of the dot plot during the conference, potentially reducing the overall market impact.
With all this in mind, the dollar index could either break out of the descending wedge formation on the hourly chart or continue drifting toward the lower boundary. Holding above the 99 level could be key for short-term price action.
Dollar Monthly CLS I Model 1 I Reversal I DOBHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument
If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS Footprint, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model.
If you haven't followed me yet, start now.
My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution.
🧩 What is CLS?
CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets.
✅ Understanding the behavior of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits.
📍 Model 1
is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range.
"Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own."
— David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions.
FTSE pivotal level at 8854The FTSE remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 8695 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 8695 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
8854 – initial resistance
8900 – psychological and structural level
8960 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 8695 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
8640 – minor support
8600 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the FTSE holds above 8695. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
NAS100 - Will the stock market continue to rise?!The index is trading in its short-term descending channel on the four-hour timeframe between EMA200 and EMA50. If there is no re-up and the channel is broken, I expect a correction to form, the target of which can be the bottom of the descending channel.
If the channel top is broken, we can expect a new ATH to be recorded in the Nasdaq index. It is better to wait for confirmation in case of a breakdown in order to control the risk further.
Over the past week, the Nasdaq has managed to stay within a stable range, especially despite geopolitical pressures, mixed signals from the Federal Reserve, and some concerns in the semiconductor sector. This stability is largely due to the strong fundamentals of large technology companies, the reduction in distribution days (selling pressure) in the market, and renewed expectations of interest rate cuts later in the year.
At a structural level, the number of distribution days, which indicate selling pressure from large institutions, has reached a relatively low number of 3 days in the Nasdaq over the past month. This is a sign of the weakness of heavy selling at price peaks and the market's willingness to maintain long positions. Unlike trends seen in previous years, this time the market has shown no signs of widespread divergence or fundamental weakness, even despite strong inflation data or concerns about new trade restrictions with China.
This trend is largely supported by the stellar performance of companies such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple and other major players in the artificial intelligence and technology sectors. Revenue growth, increased investment in AI infrastructure, as well as the return of institutional investors’ confidence in technology stocks, have led the Nasdaq to record significant returns since the beginning of 2025. Analysts from major financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, while warning of potential selling pressure on the index, remain positive about continued growth, of course, assuming that economic data does not deviate from the expected path.
However, some risks are clearly visible in the trading week ahead. The most important of them is the possibility of geopolitical tensions again affecting the market. In recent days, oil prices have risen and financial markets have experienced moments of fear after tensions in the Middle East escalated and the US political response to Iran and Israel's moves. Although the Nasdaq was able to withstand these fluctuations, the market remains very sensitive to energy price spikes and their impact on inflation.
Important data in the coming week could also determine the market's direction. The release of the Core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, as well as data on unemployment insurance claims, both play a key role in the interest rate outlook. If inflation data is lower than expected, the likelihood that the Fed will start cutting rates in September or November increases, which would be a bullish stimulus for the stock market and especially the Nasdaq.
On the other hand, potential pressure on the semiconductor group - especially if new restrictions on technology exports to China are imposed - could disrupt the market trend. Last Friday, just one news report on the possibility of restricting exports of advanced chipsets caused the Nasdaq to fall by more than 0.6%. If this trend becomes official US government policy, it could cause a correction in stocks of companies such as Nvidia, AMD and ASML, which are heavy weights in the Nasdaq index.
In addition to these factors, next week will also see the release of quarterly reports from major companies such as Micron, FedEx and Nike. The results of these reports, especially in the area of sales and cost forecasts, could affect economic growth expectations. If the figures are better than expected, the Nasdaq could move towards new highs. However, if the data is released, the market could enter a short-term correction phase.
In terms of correlation with monetary policy, the Nasdaq index has become more sensitive than ever to interest rates and cash flows. The dollar price, real interest rates, and the direction of Treasury bonds all now have a direct impact on the valuation of technology companies. As a result, any change in the path of monetary tightening or easing is immediately reflected in the Nasdaq’s performance. However, analysts believe that the market will remain in a “wait and see” phase until the official data is released in July. In summary, the Nasdaq index is currently in a situation where its fundamentals are supported by the profitability of large technology companies, the easing of institutional selling pressure, and the possibility of a rate cut. At the same time, the market remains highly sensitive to major geopolitical news, trade policy, and economic data. As a result, the week ahead can be considered a “two-sided” period, where opportunities and threats are in a delicate balance, and only economic data and quarterly results can tip the balance in the direction of an increase or a correction.
Cup of the Morning for DXYThe TVC:DXY seems to be forming a Cup and Handle Pattern on the 1Hr Chart!
Cup and Handle pattern is considered a strong Reversal Pattern where we should expect Bullishness for the USD.
After the 2nd or Equal High to the 1st was formed, Price made a Retracement to the 38.2% Fibonacci level and found Support to the begin forming the "Handle" or Consolidation Phase of the Pattern.
Price must Break and Close above the "Brim" or Equal Highs of the Cup @ 99.113 to Confirm the pattern!
Once confirmed, we can then look for price on DXY to rise up to the next level of Resistance in the 99.6 area!
DXY Bullish Reversal & Cup Formation The DXY (US Dollar Index) is exhibiting a strong bullish reversal pattern, with multiple technical signals suggesting upward momentum:
🔍 Technical Analysis Summary:
✅ Support Holding Strong:
Price has respected the horizontal support zone around 98.00–98.50 on multiple occasions (highlighted by orange circles and green arrows), forming a solid base.
✅ Breakout from Downtrend:
A clear breakout above two descending trendlines (black and blue) indicates a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment.
✅ Cup Pattern Formation ☕:
A textbook Cup pattern is visible, where price formed a rounded bottom — a bullish continuation formation. The handle is minor and price has broken above the neckline (around 99.00), signaling a potential continuation toward the target.
✅ Bullish Target 🎯:
Based on the cup pattern and prior resistance, the projected target is around 101.846, aligning with previous major resistance.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone: 98.00 – 98.50
Immediate Resistance: 99.50 – 100.00
Major Resistance/Target: 101.846
🧭 Outlook:
As long as the price remains above the 98.50 zone, the bullish scenario remains intact. The cup breakout indicates strong buying pressure, and momentum could push DXY toward the 101.846 target in the coming sessions.
Weekly Red Candles Signal Potential PullbackOn the weekly chart, two clean red candles have formed. The price is struggling to move higher — every attempt to break above is being sold off.
An additional factor is geopolitical tension, which puts extra pressure on bullish momentum.
After such an exponential rally, I expect at least a pullback .
Could there be a new high and breakout above resistance? Yes, it's possible.
But the current setup offers a clear stop-loss just 1.60% below the current price — a small and comfortable risk.
This is not a quick trade. I plan to hold the position anywhere from 1 week to 1 month, depending on how the market develops. Therefore, I choose an optimal position size for my account, knowing that margin will be frozen.
SPX: geopolitics, Fed, inflationDuring the previous week the S&P 500 was moving in a mixed manner. The trading range was between levels 6.039 and 5.967 where the index is closing the week. Traders and investors had quite a lot of topics to cover in order to decide which side should be traded. The tensions in the Middle East were one of them, continuing for the second week in a row. The FOMC meeting was held, with the Fed holding interest rates steady, for another meeting. Still, the Fed continues to count with two rate cuts till the end of this year. The Fed expects that implemented trade tariffs by the US Administration might affect short term inflationary pressures, but it should be a one-off effect. Some positivity for markets came from the statement of the Fed Governor Waller, who noted that the Fed might make the first rate cut in July. On the opposite side was San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who noted that she would be more confident to cut rates, after she is certain that the trade tariffs would not make a significant impact on inflation.
Uncertainty still holds on markets, especially after news posted by the Wall Street Journal, noting that the U.S. might cancel technology waivers, impacting some chipmakers. The tech companies involved in the semiconducting business dropped in value. Friday's trading session Nvidia ended by 1,12% lower, AMZN also closed the week with a drop of 1,33%. This week on the opposite side was Apple, with a gain of 2,25%.
As long as uncertainty shapes investors sentiment, the market will lack optimism. The volatility on the US equity markets might continue, with possibly negative trends. The week ahead brings the PCE data as well as Fed Chair Powell`s testimony in front of the Congress, in which sense, the volatility will most certainly hold.
Bullish continuation?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which has been identiifed as ab overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 5,796.40
1st Support: 5,555.95
1st Resistance: 6,091.55
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Falling towards major support?Dow Jones (US30) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 41,520.25
1st Support: 40,653.80
1st Resistance: 43,238.47
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Nikkei 225 H4 | Rising toward a 61.8% Fibonacci retracementThe Nikkei 225 (JPN225) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 38,651.50 which is a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 39,000.00 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 37,840.09 which is a pullback support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Can Geopolitics Redefine Market Risk?The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which analysts widely dub the "fear gauge," currently commands significant attention in global financial markets. Its recent surge reflects profound uncertainty, particularly from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the VIX quantifies market expectations for future volatility, its current elevation signals more than mere sentiment. It represents a sophisticated repricing of systemic risk, capturing the implied probability of significant market dislocations. Investors find it an indispensable tool for navigating turbulent periods.
The dramatic escalation of the Iran-Israel proxy conflict into a confrontation, involving the United States, directly fuels this heightened volatility. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, prompted swift Iranian retaliation. Subsequently, on June 22, the U.S. launched "Operation Midnight Hammer," conducting precision strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites. Iran's Foreign Minister immediately declared diplomacy over, holding the U.S. responsible for "dangerous consequences" and vowing further "punishment operations," including a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
This direct U.S. military intervention, particularly targeting nuclear facilities with specialized munitions, fundamentally alters the conflict's risk profile. It moves beyond proxy warfare into a confrontation with potentially existential implications for Iran. The explicit threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for oil supplies, creates immense uncertainty for energy markets and the broader global economy. While historical VIX spikes from geopolitical events often prove transient, the current situation's unique characteristics introduce a higher degree of systemic risk and unpredictability. The Cboe VVIX Index, measuring the VIX's expected volatility, has also risen to the higher end of its range, signaling deep market uncertainty about the future trajectory of risk itself.
The current environment necessitates a shift from static portfolio management to a dynamic, adaptive approach. Investors must re-evaluate portfolio construction, considering long exposure to volatility through VIX instruments as a hedging mechanism, and increasing allocations to traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasuries and gold. The elevated VVIX implies that even the predictability of market volatility is compromised, demanding a multi-layered risk management strategy. This specific confluence of events might signify a departure from historical patterns of short-lived geopolitical market impacts, suggesting geopolitical risk could become a more ingrained and persistent factor in asset pricing. Vigilance and agile strategies are paramount for navigating this unpredictable landscape.
Nifty directions and levels for June 23Good morning, Friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for June 23:
Market Overview
The global market is showing signs of consolidation with some cautious sentiment, and our local market is also reflecting the same.
However, Gift Nifty is indicating a 130-point negative start.
So, what can we expect today?
The structures in the higher degree timeframes are slightly different from one another, so we can't take any firm decision in advance.
However, my expectation is that the market may close with a negative bias today.
Let’s look at the chart for more clarity.
On the 15-minute chart, both Nifty and Bank Nifty appear to be showing a similar structure.
Current View
The current view suggests that if the market sustains the initial gap-down and consolidates, we can expect the correction to continue.
In this case, even if there is a solid pullback, the market may not move much higher.
This would mean it could consolidate between the previous day’s high and the upcoming low.
Alternate View
The alternate view suggests that if the market takes a pullback initially, it may consolidate within the previous day's range.
If it breaks the previous high after that, we can expect further rally continuation, possibly in a diagonal pattern.
#Banknifty directions and levels for June 23:Current View
The current view suggests that if the market sustains the initial gap-down and consolidates, we can expect the correction to continue.
In this case, even if there is a solid pullback, the market may not move much higher.
This would mean it could consolidate between the previous day’s high and the upcoming low.
Alternate View
The alternate view suggests that if the market takes a pullback initially, it may consolidate within the previous day's range.
If it breaks the previous high after that, we can expect further rally continuation, possibly in a diagonal pattern.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 23/06/2025A flat opening is expected in Nifty today. If Nifty sustains above the 25,050–25,100 zone after the open, we can expect an upside rally toward 25,150 → 25,200 → 25,250+ levels. This bullish momentum may continue if Nifty remains strong above 25,100.
However, any downside momentum may begin if Nifty starts trading below 24,950, which is a crucial support zone. In such a scenario, the index could slip toward 24,850 → 24,800 → 24,750- levels.
For intraday trades, focus on breakout or breakdown levels, and manage risk with trailing stop-losses in place.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(23/06/2025)A flat opening is expected in Bank Nifty today. After the open, if Bank Nifty sustains above 56,050, an upside rally is likely toward 56,450+. A further continuation of this rally could occur if the index trades above 56,550–56,600, with extended targets up to 56,750 → 56,850 → 56,950+.
On the downside, if Bank Nifty trades below 55,950, some selling pressure may emerge. However, 55,550 will act as strong support for today’s session. A major downward move is only expected if this support breaks, opening potential targets of 55,250 → 55,150 → 55,050-.